Theresa May, Or She May Not

Brit PM Theresa May bails out on a Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal. What next? Who knows!

DEAD POOL UPDATE: it seems like only a week ago we were contemplating the G-20 meeting in Paris, but really it was a week and a half. I can't handicap all twenty of these world leaders, but among Merkel, Macron, May and Trump, Merkel was already headed out the door (as of 2021) at the meeting. But she clings to power today, as do the other three leaders in the Dead Pool.

So who will be the first among this group (or the larger G-20) to be shown the door? Theresa May virtually any day? Likely! Macron next spring or sooner? Not so fast - as President of France (NOT Prime Minister) he was elected to serve a five year term in 2017. The Assembly would normally serve until then as well. So barring a complete collapse of the governing structure, Macron should be able to stay until 2022, even if events force him to replace his current PM leading a new coalition.

Trump may be impeached by House Democrats for having a bad comb-over but nothing revealed so far suggests there will be 67 votes in the Senate for removal. OTOH, unless re-elected Jan 20, 2021 is his end date.

So who lasts the longest? It seems weird that Macron, who may be the least popular of the four and with a country beset by riots, is most likely to be in office in 2022. PredictIt bettors say May is the next European leader to go (69% probability) followed by Macron (20%).

OK, my calls: May is the next to go, Trump will outlast the other three.

Comments

[henry]

For Asset Forfeiture fans:

Incredible story:
-> Philly police permanently forfeit homes of suspected drug users/dealers, no conviction required
-> Homes are auctioned off to highest bidder
-> In some cases those homes are bought by "police officers trying their hands at real estate investment"

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1072178843207688192?s=21

[Gentlejim]

Multiple shots would be a damn shame.

[Narciso79]

Interestingly that same bani sadr was part of the peoples mujaheddin that get so much flak because the mullahs minions like niac.

[Jim Eagle]

Still up watching Justified. One thing about Raylan, he is a man of his word.

Told a guy not to move one foot forward or he would shoot him which he did.

I like people who don't waffle.

[Narciso79]

Yes hes a marshal in the urban plain, in the vein of the old west I guess it's not surprising he came from the deadwood neo western.

[MissMarple2]

https://dailycaller.com/2018/09/20/liberal-groups-kavanaugh-nonprofit/

The Women's March and other left=wing non-profit groups may have violated the law and could lose their non-profit status.

[Narciso79]

I had forgotten American medias part in this other kerfluffle

Speaking of which the last Enquirer had the post dated JFK twist about the corsican shooter, which in turn was a recently recycled claim from a nearly dozen year old memoir from Howard hunt.

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

Lowes closing a few dozen stores. Curiously, a slight majority are in Canada, though CAN is much smaller an economy.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-lowes-stores-are-closing-in-the-next-three-months-2018-11-05

[Art in Newport]

Narciso, re: your 8:25 ... impeccable logic.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--One of my items was a soccer ball and I noticed that someone else had placed a soccer ball in the box.--

There's already too many American kids playing that Eurotrash, third world kickball.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--The kitties love the new butcher block counters.--

By any chance do you mean cats? Cats love your counter tops?

[Jim Eagle]

What do you want them to play Ignatz, concussion ball?

In Rugby, another Eurotrash and world sport, no pads, no helmets, harder men, more fittness, no concussions.

Have a better sport?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Tiddlywinks?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

The Masterless People: Pirates, Maroons, and the Struggle to Live Free

Fascinating look at escaped slaves and Francis Drake amid the horrors of the Spanish conquistadors.

[MissMarple2]

Donald J. Trump
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
11m
James Comey’s behind closed doors testimony reveals that “there was not evidence of Campaign Collusion” with Russia when he left the FBI. In other words, the Witch Hunt is illegal and should never have been started!

[Narciso79]

That is a fascinating story igmatz

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

God, I love Don Surber's pithy writing.
Remember Macron's virtue signalling when the US dropped out of the Paris AGW Treaty?
https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2018/12/france-surrenders-to-french.html

"To all scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, responsible citizens who were disappointed by the decision of the president of the United States, I want to say that they will find in France a second homeland," Macron said. "I call on them, come and work here with us to work together on concrete solutions for our climate, our environment. I can assure you France will not give up the fight."

Now he is folding like a chair.

[MissMarple2]

Nytol!

[Narciso79]

Snorfle so all the prospective oscar hosts have fired a volley of tupolev torpedoes

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

My 9:02 was said in jest JiB but your response did lead me to these two interesting stories;
Head Injuries in Rugby vs. Football
and
Concussion in Rugby: The Hidden Epidemic

[Narciso79]

So mannie is offering the equivalent of 100 extra franks a month or about 3 a day as inducements

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/12/vive-la-france.php

[Captain Hate]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47v87qj5Se8

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

.

[Catsmeat]

Ext, a new low: "Comment on the day’s events, with humor, pith, and pungency." Stinky, say I.

[clarice Feldman]

Great link, Iggy!

[Narciso79]

This place meanders but it does try to stay on the road.

[Narciso79]

I meant to ask art what did you think of the avengers endgame trailer.

[Art in Newport]

Narciso, from your post, I just went and watched it for the first time.

Seemed a bit light on actual info, but, ... wasn't Ant-Man stuck in the Quantum Zone? What's he doing at Avenger HQ?

And Cap and Natasha discuss their 'plan'(?), what about Nebula and her role in the defeat of Thanos. Or has all that been rewritten?

What did you get out of it?

[Narciso79]

Seemed a bit of a downer, I know captain marvel Is the intro but still, yes that's probably what happens I thought were dealing with the moon of titan, that would be reasonably close by otherwise Tony would get marooned easier

[daddy]

Re: Iggy's 09:21 on the East Coast Maroon communities in the new World.

I'm half way finished with the last Horatio Hornblower Book and he's in Jamaica in @1826. He mentions how part of the Island is a Maroon community of remaining indigenous Natives, pirates, and escaped/shipwrecked slaves. Apparently they have some autonomy and are not messed with by the Brit overseers as long as they do not harbor new Pirates and new Runaway Slaves.

So googling DuckDuckGoing Jamaica Maroon History I came upon this Wiki link that has lots of info on a few centuries of Maroon communities in Jamaica.

Cool. Thanks for the steer, Iggy.

[Narciso79]

So beto is hanging out with resist we much and blotto what could go wrong?

[Narciso79]

Sorry I meant gollum

[Account Deleted]

yes, Iggy. our cats like the butcher block counters...especially their dedicated corner. we have to elevate their food supply to keep it away from Anya the Eating Machine chi-doxie-Rot. after they eat, they lounge there. 3 cats, 1 pup, and an Uzbek desert tortoise.... house full of animales.

[Account Deleted]

we had a dude on our Rugby side....Gumpy Kunkel....won the light bulb award after each game...knocked out at least once. i doubt he's still alive and/or sane from all the punishment he took.

[Account Deleted]

time for beddidybye.

nytol.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

So Ocasio Cortez is 1/1024th Jewish? Depending upon her family history that goes back to @ 1494-98 when the alternative was conversion or exile. The Musselmen went through the same thing. maybe she can double up at Eid al Fitr. Darn that treaty of Granada.

One of the kids did a 23andMe swab and got back that we had 1% Ashkenazi blood, so I guess I can say the same but won't. I think most of Central Europe has the same. But I identify as a wealthy African American athlete, so make it so, dammit.

Speaking of which apparently Steph Curry is a moon landing Denier. 400,000 engineers, scientists and others just can't be trusted. Maybe those African American polymath women who were portrayed in the movie can whup him upside the head.

And Theresa May or May Not, but the Italians have reduced the number of illegals by 80% since the new government took office, just what they were voted in to do. Funny how so many of these populists seem to actually do what they say they are going to.

[Art in Newport]

Will have to mull on this for a while.

It was something of a downer, like they were setting up the Empire Strikes Back rather than Return of the Jedi.

Interestingly, in going out to look for the trailer, I see there is already a huge online discussion literature. A quick sample didn't turn up any great revelations.

Too many uninitialized variables. From the trailer, the movie could be anything.

[Texas Liberty Gal]

My hubby and I started watching Justified due to some of the recommendations here. We both enjoy it but the series we really got caught up in was the Last Kingdom. Highly recommend it. Having watched all the seasons we’re now having withdrawal pains.

[Narciso79]

Well that thematically wrong at the end of empire there had been great loss Luke's innocence the grief of han solos being taken away.ao I'll wait for the second one.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--yes, Iggy. our cats like the butcher block counters...especially their dedicated corner.--

Sorry, KK, but it brings back the living nightmare of my cat-lady aunt who used to let her concatenations of cats all over her counters.
She was an excellent Italiano cook but I could never bring myself to eat anything she made. I had this recurring fear of biting into a cookie and having the halves held together by cat fur.
When we changed her kitchen cabinets there were rivulets of crystallized cat urine down the wall behind them, from the toms backing up and spraying. It was a beautiful old Victorian farmhouse but entering it was a veritable total war upon the human senses.

There's far more but I don't want the night terrors to return.

[Captain Hate]

I don't have anything against Harold Baines. He was a fine player for a long time, and justified with his play being taken with the 1st overall pick by the White Sox (he was personally scouted by Bill Veeck, which is kind of cool).
Having said that, I think he is the worst position player elected in the last 40 years. I cannot imagine why you would vote for him over, say, Will Clark, who was also on the VC ballot. Yet here we are.
Lee Smith is a questionable pick, but not a surprising one, and his status as a (very good) relief pitcher from another era makes it more difficult to evaluate him, as opposed to players in other roles.
The difference between electing Smith versus Baines is that with Smith, there are very few comparable players, so you can't say that a bunch of other guys should be in the Hall too, just because Smith is now golden.
With Baines, though, there are about 30 OF/DH types who now can probably make a case that they should be enshrined, because they were just as good as (and in many cases, better than) Baines.

[Dave (in MA)]

Credit where credit is due,

Chelsea Clinton@ChelseaClinton

Please leave Barron Trump out of “jokes” & 
analyses. He’s a kid and private citizen and 
deserves to be left alone. Thank you.

[jim nj]

The Hezbollah tunnels into Israel have captured my imagination, so.

Are the Israelis "finding" tunnels or are they just digging where they already believe them to be?

I mean, what is the back story here? Israel just "happened" to quickly find three tunnels? Not likely, so I assume there must be prior intelligence on the tunnels. Spies? Seismic sensors?

If they had this information for sometime, which I now think likely, why did Israel pick this moment in time to unveil the tunnels? Did they get a new piece of information that indicated NOW was the time to take action? Or did they decide that NOW was the best time to launch a PR war?

If the latter, they can discover new tunnels at the time of their choosing. They control the pace of news at this point, since, IMO, all of tunnels have been compromised, even if unrevealed at this point.

Intentionally, or not, this takes the spotlight off Hamas and the Gaza Strip and flares it on Hezbollah and Lebanon.

And Hezbollah. What were they thinking in building these tunnels? Were they to be used in a first-strike manner or for counter-attack? Either way it's an act of war, but a first-strike usage would make the tunnels an offensive, rather than a defensive weapon. I guess one could argue that neither matters since the tunnels were already under Israeli territory.

Off to see if there's anything new on the subject.

[Narciso79]

Apparently its not a new thing:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/ex-defense-minister-admits-officials-lied-about-hezbollah-tunnels-for-years/amp/

[Narciso79]

They may not have gotten the location then:

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/world/middleeast/hezbollah-israel-missile-strike.html

[Captain Hate]

I'll give Chelsea Clinton credit for doing the right thing. Maybe she can remember how she felt when McCain heroically joked about Janet Reno being her father within earshot of his friends in the MFM, who served the country honorably by tattling on the old goat like a bunch of junior high girls having their first periods. It was a great moment for the country and maybe Chelsea could've been spared being the object of such concentrated stupidity by all the above acting like mature human beings.

[Momto2]

Thanks, everyone for the nice anniversary wishes and comments. I know every one of you would (and some have) taken care of your spouse if needed.

Speaking of cats:

[Narciso79]

Heh, momto2, cats resemble thie owners

[jim nj]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-10/israel-faces-a-more-formidable-hezbollah-digging-in-from-lebanon

This plays up the strength of Hezbollah as a formidable fighting force. Hezbollah is trying to down-play the discovery of the tunnels.

https://nypost.com/2018/12/10/israels-blitz-of-hezbollahs-terror-tunnels-will-help-win-the-pr-war/

This looks at the PR war aspects, both provide more background.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-releases-seismic-audio-of-hezbollah-digging-into-israel/

They've been looking for the tunnels for some time now. First in 2013 when they found nothing. After the 2014 Gaza incursion they looked again and found signs of activity so they put together a multi-disciplinarian R&D team to pinpoint them.

I'm thinking the Israelis know generally, if not specifically, where ALL the tunnels are.

[Captain Hate]

Momto2, you're the best. I'm glad Darby brings you such pleasure.

Nytol.

[jimmyk]

A belated happy anniversary, momto2! (Just catching up.)

[jim nj]

https://www.algemeiner.com/2018/12/10/amid-ongoing-lebanon-border-op-idf-releases-info-on-new-tunnel-detection-technology-and-methods/

More on the Israeli detection effort.

https://news.yahoo.com/why-israel-confronted-hezbollah-tunnel-023500216.html

Doesn't give a good reason for why now.Good quote, "Former Yahalom engineering commander Col. (Res.) Atai Shelach described the complexity of the Hezbollah tunnels on Tuesday, December 4, as making Hamas tunnels look like a kindergarten project in comparison."

https://worldisraelnews.com/elite-hezbollah-unit-intended-to-lead-galilee-assault/

Speculation on which Hezbollah unit would have led an attack.

[jim nj]

https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2018/12/11/pc-palooza-comedian-shares-universitys-contract-demands-for-comedy-night-and-it-could-be-the-funniest-part-of-the-show/

Snowflake contract for comedian. Even worse - it's an unpaid gig.

[jim nj]

Clarice,

Yes, the night crew can get a little squirrely at times, but we're way more laid back than the day crew.

Need I remind you that Pinandpuller went off on the day side about his kidney. Which I thought was hilariously brilliant. I mean it came our of nowhere.

[Dave (in MA)]

James D. seemed to be saying the other day that he was having surgery today, so... Best wishes, big guy.

[jim nj]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-07/federal-reserve-officials-search-for-the-elusive-neutral-interest-rate?srnd=premium

One of the things the Fed supposedly learned in the recent past was to be as open as possible about its' intentions. The recent pronouncements from the Fed Chair and the NY Chair don't fit that. They seem to be talking at cross purposes.

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/how-will-fed-reduce-balance-sheet/

This also scary. When we hit that "neutral" interest rate, how does the Fed plan to reduce its' bond portfolio given that it will reduce liquidity in the markets by sucking out cash.

[jim nj]

Dave,

Ditto on James D.

[daddy]

Yes, the night crew can get a little squirrely at times

[jim nj]

https://www.livescience.com/64179-ancient-cosmic-airburst-middle-east.html

Cosmic Airburst May Have Wiped Out Part of the Middle East 3,700 Years Ago

Hmm. If true, how many random events in human history are we unaware of.

[jim nj]

Daddy,

I wonder what Clarice was referring to.

[Barbara]

Happy Anniversary, MomTo2! Give adorable Darby a hug from me 🐕 :)

And best wishes for James D!

[jim nj]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atomic-clock-precise-better-understanding-201400003.html

This is really weird. The US has created the most accurate clock ever, but because it's so accurate we need to correct it for the gravity affecting it.

But we can't measure the gravity accurately enough to correct the clock for the gravity it is subjected to.

Einstein posited that space-time is a continuum, but apparently we can't fine tune the clock because we can't measure gravity as accurately as we need to do.

Sounds like a cat chasing its' tail.

[jim nj]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2177092/deflation-returns-haunt-chinese-economy-risks-us-trade-war

This is too soon to note a trend, but if this continues it will be of concern to China.

When Japan's asset bubble collapsed some twenty odd years ago they wound up mired in a deflationary trap.

In a deflationary trap an interest rate of 0% is not enough to spur new growth.

https://www.innovativewealth.com/inflation-monitor/why-you-should-worry-about-japan-deflation/

This was the least bad article I could find explaining the issue. Wish I could have found a better one.

[Pinandpuller]

Not to be confused with Anasazi

[jim nj]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mexico-pledges-dollar30-billion-in-development-aid-in-part-to-deter-migration/ar-BBQMGhG?li=BBnb7Kz

Money to be invested in southern Mexico over 5 years. Sounds like a start, but no real idea on how this will effect immigration from Central America.

[jim nj]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/enthusiasts/lucky-owner-gets-her-350000-mile-beetle-restored-by-vw-for-free/ar-BBQLPkM

Lucky woman gets Beetle rebuilt free of charge from VW.

[jim nj]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/animals/stubborn-husky-brings-back-stolen-shoe-after-being-confronted/vi-BBQMChC

Cute.

[jim nj]

https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2018/12/10/exclusive-paris-dennard-washington-posts-political-hit-job-cnn-blatant-bias/

Black Republican falsely accused?

[jim nj]

https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/10/japan-bans-huawei-and-zte-5g-networking-hardware-will-canada-be-next/

[jim nj]

https://www.wired.com/story/google-plus-bug-52-million-users-data-exposed/

Evil empire compromised.

[James D.]

Off to the hospital (yes, at 5 AM!) to have my gall bladder out.

If all goes well, I'll be home this afternoon, although I probably won't be alert or thinking straight until tonight or tomorrow morning...

[jim nj]

So, Clarice, what about all these links and analysis since 12:00 AM.

The night crew rocks. I'm the very early MM. I find stuff you'd never see otherwise.

I note. I expound. I explain. I'm having fun twitting you.

Don't aim your pistolas at me. I've packed dirt in the barrels.

Love you Clarice, even if you think the night crew is weird :)

[jim nj]

Very best of luck, James D., for all of us here who love you. And I'm sure that, even though I'm night crew, I speak for all of us. Wishing you back soon, with all the details.

See if they have Pin's kidney hanging around there.

[daddy]

Best of luck, James D.

[jim nj]

Daddy,

You're part of the night crew, was it something you said that appalled Clarice. Shame on you.

[jim nj]

I denounce you if you said something impolitic.

Otherwise, never mind.

[jim nj]

Maybe it was Pin? Pin I denounce you, unless I shouldn't. Never mind.

[henry]

Good luck James D.

[jim nj]

It must have been Pin. He's a G-d damn troublemaker. I never should have introduced you to Gus. That kidney carving son-of-a bitch.

Gus, you're freaking evil. How could you do that to Pin?

Henry, why did you stand by when you knew such an atrocity had been committed?

[jim nj]

Henry,

Thank you for your wishes for James D., but how could you have treated Pin so shabbily?

[jim nj]

This is what happens when no one is here to restrain me.

[MissMarple2]

Good morning, all.

James D., hope all goes well!I will keep you in my prayers.

[MissMarple2]

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-idUSKBN1OA0MH?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c0f966204d30156ba36daf5&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

May is going to ask Merkel to let them re-write the Brexit agreement.

[henry]

Jim, he had two of them.

[MissMarple2]

https://nypost.com/2018/12/10/trove-of-crusader-era-gold-coins-found-at-massacre-site/?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow

[MissMarple2]

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2018/10/28/after-obamas-failure-libya-risk-high-isis-establishing-caliphate

Obama and Hillary sure messed us up in Libya.

[Account Deleted]

Ya, Iggy, that sounds pretty disgusting. We've not once had a "nose blind" problem with ours.

the part of the kitchen where they congregate isn't a food preparation area, off in a corner of the sink area to the far left, under our beaut
iful new window.

the key is to keep them properly littered. the kitties live with two neat freaks which assures sanitary confines for all.

we've known cat ladies before too. ugh. i remember when my two older kids were left with a cat lady for 1 day (an arrangement made in a pinch by my ex-wife). i went to pick them up.

4 year old daughter was waiting for me out on the front porch. "Get us out of here." i went in to get Boy--- he was playing with 5 cats!

oy.

[MissMarple2]

This guy should get some sort of award.

Over 1000 Gold Star Children travel w/ surviving parent, 1,750 in all, via @americanair to Disney World today as part of our @GarySiniseFound Snowball Express program. This charter left LAX this morning. I’ll join up in a few days. Have fun kids! We love you! pic.twitter.com/OfMEpVF1er

— Gary Sinise (@GarySinise) December 8, 2018

Phoro at the link.

[MissMarple2]

I have used up my free articles, but I was dumbfounded to see this headline in the NYT today:

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/cash-flowed-to-clinton-foundation-as-russians-pressed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html

[Account Deleted]

The Reich appropriated many ancient symbols, especially its most famous.

i don't guess the hospital would think differently after a show and tell about the forever association of the crooked cross with genocidal maniacs.

[Account Deleted]

has the worm turned, MM?

will the NYT turn on the perps of the infamous Iran Deal?

[anonamom]

If all goes well, I'll be home this afternoon, although I probably won't be alert or thinking straight until tonight or tomorrow morning...

If all goes well, you'll be home by eleven!
You think they're running a hotel or something??? ;-)

(If you're off this early, you likely have the first surgical slot, and you'll be out of the OR by nine.)

I'll light my Mary candle for you.

If you get to read this before you roll back, ask them what kind of multimodal pain relief they practice.
We are down to no narcotics for all kinds of procedures. (Not yours, yet---but way less than we used to use.)

Yes, it does matter how much narcs you get in the OR as to whether you even need any afterwards.

[Account Deleted]

almost forgot! Good Morning JOM!

jim nj...great stuff on the Hezbollox tunnel developments.

they're rats.

[Account Deleted]

Momto2:

shared what little i know about your "story", including your dedication to 4H, with Mrs Kid last night. we always conclude yoga time with a gratitude share.

mine was for people such as yourself, and others here, who soldier on in goodness, continuing despite circumstances.

after that Mrs Kid suggested i share our closing reflection song. i hope you'll accept it on this day after your anniversary as a small bouqet from us both! - Kev

Long Time Sun

[MissMarple2]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/chrysler/2018/12/10/ousted-uaw-official-norwood-jewell-center-fbi-investigation/2124288002/

[Account Deleted]

Tally ho, James D.

Prayer fire at 9a. Dedicated to healing and peaceful rest to find you on this Good Red Road we share.

Kev

[anonamom]

clarice's comment about the night crew made me laugh.
Says way more about her than you guys though--she obviously does NOT do catch up.
What kind of slack JOMer does not read every post??? ;-)
And the night she read, you did have to have read the day's and evening's posts to get what was going on.

Confirmed what I'd longed suspected, as she often posts links that have been posted already.
Not that there's anything wrong with that!
Let's you know which things are must reads.

She kind of gives an imprimatur to a link, no?

[MissMarple2]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/44-ex-senators-warn-us-is-entering-a-dangerous-period/ar-BBQMAbz?ocid=st

[anonamom]

So, KK, when james d sails through, do we credit the BVM or your prayer fire?

Hey--multimodal spirit support!

[MissMarple2]

Secretary Pompeo
@SecPompeo
·
8h
#Russia's government has sent bombers halfway around the world to #Venezuela. The Russian and Venezuelan people should see this for what it is: two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom while their people suffer.