Build The Compromise!

Jonah Goldberg contemplates the next government shutdown and makes a seemingly obvious point about Pelosi's power position:

Pelosi might be the first political adversary who is invulnerable to Trump’s attacks. Trump is dangerous to his preferred targets — other Republicans — precisely because he can sway his supporters, voters and MAGA media figures alike, to turn on those disloyal to him. He can’t do that with Pelosi.

Indeed, in an era of negative partisanship, Trump’s attacks make Pelosi stronger with her base and with many independents, who split evenly for Clinton and Trump in 2016, and who have largely turned against him and tuned out his appeals.

And because Pelosi controls a Democratic House, she is free to use her institutional powers against Trump in ways that Paul Ryan never could have, even if he had wanted to.

Well, yeah - Nancy is worried about tweets from Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, not Trump.

This does not bode well for a compromise, especially given Congress's long history of passing the buck on tough issues:

And while there are some Democrats and Republicans who would like to reach a compromise, both Pelosi and Trump have few incentives to do anything that will seem like capitulation. Many Republicans have already made peace with the idea of an emergency declaration, because it would let them off the hook for failing to pass wall funding.

Meanwhile, Trump is clearly enamored with the idea, believing it would convey strength and a willingness to fight. Yes, some court somewhere would instantly stay the order, but that would simply give everyone an issue to bleat about.

Trump would save face with his base and have a convenient bogeyman — runaway liberal judges! — to rail against. The move would divide the larger conservative movement while unifying Democrats, who’d scream “Dictator!” while quietly noodling about how a Democratic president could use the same powers for a “Green New Deal” or some other fantasy.

AllahPundit is on a similar page - the basis for a deal just isn't here:

Corralling Republicans is comparatively easy for Jared, though. All he needs to do is convince Trump and a critical mass of GOPers in Congress will surely follow. They live in fear for their political lives from him. Once Trump gave them cover by supporting the reform package, Jared knew he had the leverage to make a deal happen.

It’s conceivable that he’d duplicate that feat on immigration reform with Republicans. Get Trump to support a grand bargain and enough Senate GOPers will follow his lead to make passage viable. His problem is Democrats. And not just Democrats but Democrats who recently fought a month-long high-stakes political battle with Trump — and won. They’re less inclined to give him money for the wall right now than they would have been before the shutdown began. If either side is going to need extra concessions to make a deal, it’s Pelosi’s party, not Trump’s.

In fact, the big fight over the wall has made that particular plank of immigration enforcement a fetish for both sides. After going to the mat on it, Trump simply can’t accept a deal that lacks wall funding now. It doesn’t matter what else is in there — comprehensive e-Verify, some new limits to legal immigration (which Democrats will never agree to), etc. If he doesn’t get the wall, he loses, period. I don’t think the wall’s power as a fetish is *quite* as strong for Democrats, but it’s plenty strong. There are, I think, concessions that Trump might make that they’d seriously consider, like a permanent DREAM amnesty that includes a path to citizenship. But as I say, their “ask” now will be steeper than it was six weeks ago. It will take a major concession to make this happen.

So tell me: Is there any major concession Trump might make that the populist right would tolerate in the name of securing wall funding?

I can't elevate this to a Bold Prediction but do let me note that DC has a time-honored technique for resolving this sort of impasse - appoint a bipartisan commission to study the obvious and come back with a report telling us what we already knew, but let business continue as usual while we pretend we are learning something. As a recent example, the Simpson-Bowles deficit commission of 2010 was slated to report back after the 2010 elections. The commission was proposed in January 2010 as a fig leaf to break a debt-ceiling jam.

A Commission on Border Security could puzzle over all sorts of ideas to strengthen the border and in a calm debate there is no doubt in my mind that physical barriers would be a part of the solution for some parts of the border. The bigger problem is that the next real deadline past which both parties might want to kick this is the 2020 election. I don't see how Democrats on the panel could report favorably on physical barriers prior to the election.

Complicating the barrier question is the legal environment in the US. This Heritage report from 2009 sets the stage:

In some areas, erecting fences is the best way to tackle the illegal-entry problem. But the cost makes it important to use fencing only in areas with a low "melting point." The melting point is the time it takes for an individual to cross the border and "melt" into a landscape unnoticed. In urban border communities, spending money on physical barriers makes sense because individuals can easily cross the border and sneak quickly into the urban landscape (for example, one can hide in a building or steal a car and drive away). But in other areas, like the middle of the desert, the barren landscape makes it easy for Border Patrol agents to detect border crossers.

Well, yes but... Today, immigrants with children are happy to be detained in the US because they understand they won't be held for more than 20 days and our courts can't process their dubious asylum claims in that time frame. The Trump Administration is dealing with that by trying to keep asylum applicants on the Mexican side of the border.

Comments

[anonamom]

Ely, MN: -70 windchill right now.

[daddy]

Great links, everyone. Nite nite.

[jim nj]

Jim,

Gold is priced to include uncertainty. While gold is a legitimate investment, its' current price includes a futures or options premium.

It's not just the fair value of what Gold should be priced at for now. It's also a forward looking price.

For instance, if gold is being smuggled out of Venezuela, no one expects it to hit the market. Or the price would drop.

[Pinandpuller]

Cattle Truck accident Veracruz, MX. Cows seeking a better life are stolen and butchered in a highway median with machetes. All potential Conservatives.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=dXRd_1547450865

[MissMarple2]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6651663/At-12-people-died-including-Iowa-student-polar-vortex-wreaks-havoc-Midwest.html

Article contains huge amount of photos plus several maps ad videos.

[anonamom]

Alana Mastrangelo
‏
Verified account

@ARmastrangelo
9h9 hours ago
More
Leftist: I’m pro choice

Me: Can I choose my health care?

Leftist: No

Me: Can I choose my method of self-defense?

Leftist: No

Me: Can I choose how my money gets spent?

Leftist: No

Me: Then what can I choose?

Leftist: You can choose to kill a baby in the womb after 9 months

[MissMarple2]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/01/31/consumers-ceo-warns-brief-shutoffs-if-customers-dont-dial-down/2729387002/

Natural gas shortage due to fire at a plant.

I also saw a tweet concerned that the electrical grid might be overloaded and shut down.

[MissMarple2]

Matt Walsh
‏Verified account @MattWalshBlog
7h7 hours ago

VA Governor: "Let's deliver babies alive and then kill them."

Everyone: "That's horrifying."

VA Governor: "Stop picking on me!"

[Another Bob]

This one was better MM...

“Trump and his Republicans in Richmond are trying to spread shameful lies about Kathy Tran, a tremendous delegate, and @GovernorVA @RalphNortham, a man who served our nation in uniform and dedicated his life to caring for children as a pediatrician. Don’t believe a word of it.“

https://twitter.com/markherringva/status/1090812296836927488?s=21

Just repeating Tran’s own words.

The balls on these SOBs...

[MissMarple2]

Another Bob,

I watched that video of Northam about 3-5 times yesterday, to make sure I didn't misunderstand it.

I didn't. It was monstrous, more so because of his bloodless, boring delivery, like he was reading an accountant's report or something.

[MissMarple2]

I am going back to bed for a bit. I am cold.

[Buckeye]

Balmy -3F in the 'hood right now.

Warming to mid-high teens throughout the course of the day.

Off to the Orthopedic guy so he can tell me all the bad stuff they found on my X-rays.

[hoyden]

I believe God allows evil to flourish for a time so the we can learn the hard lessons. After Stalin, Hitler, Mao, and Pol Pot, the Left steps right up and says "Hold my beer..."

[hoyden]

It's -27 in Minneapolis. My furnace ran 13 hours yesterday. I'm grateful for warmth. Some folks in North metro had gas shut off due to supply issues. Utility paid for space heaters and overnight motel. I hope they get service back today.

[Another Bob]

“evil to flourish”

I’m not an abortion absolutist, my gut tells me there are circumstances where abortion is a reasonable (note, not desirable) conclusion. But the speed with which these absolutists won victories is breathtaking to me. And they’re not batting an eye - no sign at all of doubt or question.

If rolls into the thought I’ve had for a while, that we’ll find - maybe not anytime soon, but eventually - that something happened or was done in Obama’s second term that caused progs everywhere to drop the masks and openly make happen everything they thought was unattainable. They knew a fix was in that would enable it.

[hoyden]

The Left's hegemony in media, educating, high tech, and bureaucracy has made them cocky. They can smell the taste of victory.

[Extraneus]

I think it's over-reach, AB. We knew they'd do it.

New gun restrictions just passed in NY, btw.

[Jim Eagle]

51F when I woke up at 0630. But wind still at 10-15mph out of NE.

Still already better than yesterday. We lost power in NY house. Took 5 hours to restore. Wind push a tree on to main feeder line in village.

[Extraneus]

More over-reach, just barely delayed.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/01/30/house-democrats-vote-to-keep-so-help-you-god-in-oath/

[Ralph L]

Hamilton and Burr rowed across to Jersey

My cousin from Queens directed us to the site of the duel, and I lucked into finding it in 2000. There's a bust of Ham on the edge of the palisade across from Hillary's Javits center. You can see the length of Manhattan. The twin towers were scary YUGE. We then went to the Hoboken shore and they were even bigger.

Now I wonder if the duel was actually at the foot of the cliff, because it would be stupid to have to carry someone down it.

[Porchlight]

The duel was on a ledge partway between the top of the cliffs and the water. It was remote so that duelists couldn't be easily reached, since the practice was technically illegal.

[hrtshpdbox]

While gold is a legitimate investment, its' current price includes a futures or options premium.

It's the "cost of money" that affects non-interest paying commodities. "Spot", or cash, gold isn't traded on futures markets until, theoretically, the nearby contract goes into delivery; at that point, shorts must deliver gold to longs, and it will be at the prevailing cash price. So, even February Gold has a few weeks of "premium", i.e. the carrying costs lost by not having the money investment in gold invested in short-term bills. So, in a high interest rate environment, the premium between each traded month is higher, when rates are lower it's lower. If the market is "squeezed", of course, the nearby contract goes through the roof while the further out months rise more slowly, until that aberration abates.

[Ralph L]

My NY resolution last year was to leave no dirty dishes out before bed. Kept it until May.

Something about spaghetti sauce stops me from washing pots for days.

The detector I set off with the broiler is 11 feet in the air. The broom will just reach the off button.

[Ralph L]

Thanks, Porch. IIRC, Burr challenged Ham after Ham scuppered his quest for NY governor. Ham's affair with a Mrs. Reynolds became public after Mr. tried to extort money from him.

[Porchlight]

Thank you, Ralph L, for bringing up the smoke detector subject. We haven't tested ours in a very long time and now it's top of the to-do list thanks to your reminder.

Dishwasher weigh-in: I like loading it and I am the most skilled at it by far in our household. :) I despise unloading. We take turns at both but I would say I load more often on balance. Then we use the clean dishes out of the washer until it's almost empty, lol.

[henry]

Balmy -27 here. Brrrrrr.

[hrtshpdbox]

A week later, Trump expresses "disappointment" that the Stone arrest went down like that, wants answers.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/427791-trump-very-disappointed-with-stone-raid

[hrtshpdbox]

Torrid -2 here, I stowed the deck chairs too soon.

[Ralph L]

My mother's rule was that if you cook, you don't have load the DW (she did the pots). Now my bro and I are so picky, we won't let anyone else do it. Of course, all food must be removed before loading because the portable one we had in the 60's wouldn't do so.

[James D.]

I really have to agree with OL about being very tired of President Trump tweeting and speaking in interviews about his concerns with the behavior of the DoJ and FBI.

They report to him. Rather than talking to a reporter from The Hill about his concerns, he can summon his Acting Attorney General and his FBI Director and ORDER them to stop the crap.

There's no legislation laying out how many agents are sent to serve arrest warrants, or how they're armed. That's a matter of policy, which can change RIGHT NOW at the order of the FBI Director.

There's no legislation mandating that FBI witness interviews are not recorded. That, too, can be changed TODAY, with one word from above.

And if the Acting AG or the FBI Director won't make those changes, they can be fired.

[hrtshpdbox]

Is Andrew Cuomo's mother alive? I wonder if it's not too late for her to abort Andy...I mean, why would it be too late, it's between Mrs. Cuomo and her doctor after all.

[Porchlight]

Ralph L, today's dishwashers are so powerful that if you don't leave some food for them to work on, they'll take it out on your dishes over time.

Mr Porch is one of the "wash the dish before putting it in the dishwasher" types which I often remind him is a waste of energy, water, time and labor, and harder on the dishes as I mentioned. Most annoying is when I can't immediately tell whether the dishes are clean or dirty!

[Momto2]

.

[Extraneus]

Planned Parenthood Donated Millions to Virginia Governor Who Made Abortion Comments

https://tinyurl.com/ydhfq7xj

[Momto2]

Mark Meadows
@RepMarkMeadows

Democrats insisted for a month they were ready to negotiate on border security when the government reopened. It’s been nearly a week and we have yet to see even one Dem compromise counteroffer to the multiple proposals from POTUS. This is not a negotiation—one side isn’t negotiating.

[Porchlight]

Dems want this big abortion fight for 2020. They want Trump to come out swinging, so they can then tell LIVs (who won't follow or care about the gory "details") that Trump is trying to take away women's rights.

I don't know if it's going to work out for them.

[Narciso79]

What part of they are following their own agenda are you missing, so they cant be fired so they make up this whole collusion carp.

[henry]

Trump:

Republicans on the Homeland Security Committee are wasting their time. Democrats, despite all of the evidence, proof and Caravans coming, are not going to give money to build the DESPERATELY needed WALL. I’ve got you covered. Wall is already being built, I don’t expect much help!

[henry]

Trump has been tweeting faster than I’ve been adding logs to the fire.

[henry]

Trump:

Democrats are becoming the Party of late term abortion, high taxes, Open Borders and Crime!

[henry]

Trump;

Very sadly, Murder cases in Mexico in 2018 rose 33% from 2017, to 33,341. This is a big contributor to the Humanitarian Crises taking place on our Southern Border and then spreading throughout our Country. Worse even than Afghanistan. Much caused by DRUGS. Wall is being built!

[Old Lurker]

Porch "Thank you, Ralph L, for bringing up the smoke detector subject."

Do NOT install a switch with a warning light in any AC circuit running to the Smoke Detectors!

:-)

[Account Deleted]

at about 3:40 candidate Trump lays out what Democrats are pushing for right now. He was exactly right. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfdRmnT0Weo

[Ralph L]

they'll take it out on your dishes over time

True, so I use less soap, and I already scratched most of my glasses hand-washing with a plastic scrubber. Even if it ran everyday so the food wouldn't dry out, I'd still be afraid of unclean utensils. I wash the silver and Grandma's gold-edged 1919 china by hand.

[Ralph L]

OL heard from his lawyer.

[henry]

Trump:

With Murders up 33% in Mexico, a record, why wouldn’t any sane person want to build a Wall! Construction has started and will not stop until it is finished. @LouDobbs @foxandfriends

[Porchlight]

Okay OL. :)

Ralph L, less soap is good. We've just been given a set of Minton china and a set of silver (my folks have sold their FL home), so more handwashing is in our future.

New thread!

[henry]

Thread on the secret court case... somebody’s assists got frozen / seized, but who and by whom are redacted:

A federal district court in DC has unsealed parts of the docket in the mystery probably-Mueller grand jury case, and it's not super-informative.

https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/1090815756164624385?s=21

[henry]

NEW Thread.

[Old Lurker]

Ralph, OL does NOT want to hear from his lawyer!

Subject is now closed.

:-)

[MissMarple2]

Thanks for grabbing Trump's tweets, henry!

Here is a complete transcript of the interview President Trump gave to the Daily Caller:

https://dailycaller.com/2019/01/31/full-transcript-president-trump-oval-office-interview-the-daily-caller/

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

NEW

[hrtshpdbox]

“This is a great country and it does need to be defended, If big tech companies are going to turn their back on US Department of Defense, this country is going to be in trouble.”

So says Jeff Bezos, a patriot whose business practices and politics is unfairly maligned by just about everyone. He is socially liberal, yes (I winced, when employed by Amazon, at how he "celebrated" LGBTQ day every year - I'm going to reserve the right to suspect the "T"s might just have mental issues), but he went off on Seattle pretty vigorously when they imposed a homeless tax on local business (i.e. his).

Financially, he built a great company where employees were rewarded for showing up and working hard; everyone from Tucker to Bernie failed to understand. After the close today Amazon reports their Christmas quarter; I'm expecting them to blow the projections out of the water.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/31/amazon-defense-cloud-computing-pentagon-jeff-bezos

[Jane]

I think Bezos is a Patriot - just on the wrong side of a lot of issues.