JustOneMinute

Dow Poised To, Well, Pounce.

Can the Dow pounce? Stock futures (DJIA up 226) indicate that the early money likes the Trump trade truce.  We will see what the morrow brings.

Health Care Follies

The NY Times notes the Democratic dance around Medicare for All and the possible elimination of private insurance.

But its what the Democrats all agree on that will really get them - the idea of free health care for all undocumented future Democrats when we have an obvious shortage of health providers for low-income US citizens? More crazy faster!

On the topic of immigration, Andrew Sullivan is excellent (either Sully is back from his Palin-fueled Alaskan wilderness journey or I have joined him.) Fareed Zakaria, a reliable lefty, is also concerned about his party's position.

BONUS QUERY - BLUE STATE BAILOUT?: Would the abolition of private insurance wipe out the obligation of various states on their health plans to public sector retirees and/or their current employees? One might think so but I have not checked the details of the Medicare For All plans or the state obligations to current and retired employees. That said, Connecticut, Illinois and New Jersey are on everyone's list of states Too Big To Fail, Too Blue To Succeed.

Of course, both public and private sector unions negotiated health benefits later in lieu of (unaffordable) pay increases immediately, so union support my be soft.

DO LET ME ADD: Just to pick Connecticut at random, state budget projections show health care expenses (current and retirees) of $1.5B in 2020, $1.6B in 2021.

Projected deficits are $1.9B in 2020 and $2.5B in 2021. Eliminating the health care expense is not a complete solution but every big bit helps.

It May Not Be Smart Money But Its Early Money

PredictIt has the Dem frontrunners on a cool graph. Bettors say Biden is taking on water.

Heck of a problem posting today unless it's a link.OL that stamford article is for you.

A Character Building Opportunity

I have NOT been watching this debate because I am a man of low character. But I will read about it at some point.

Here We Go Again

Between Iran, China, the border and E. Jean Carroll's rape allegation, I am having another onset of news overload.

On another day I might even say "I can't even", but I've been getting help with that.

Carry on!

Weekend Open Thread

Lots to talk about.

California Dreamin' Comes East

NY State Democrats approve the most virtue-signalling green program yet:

New York to Approve One of the World’s Most Ambitious Climate Plans

The state would pledge to eliminate net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with all its electricity coming from carbon-free sources.

New York lawmakers have agreed to pass a sweeping climate plan that calls for the state to all but eliminate its greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, envisioning an era when gas-guzzling cars, oil-burning heaters and furnaces would be phased out, and all of the state’s electricity would come from carbon-free sources.

...

If the state manages to hit those targets, it would effectively create a so-called net-zero economy, the ultimate goal of environmentalists and others seeking to slow the pace of global warming.

Let me emphasize the magical thinking hidden in "a net-zero-economy, the ultimate goal...". This bill, if achieved, will make NY State a net-zero region. There are no border tariffs for carbon intensive products produced elsewhere. 

Can New Yorkers still eat beef? Those cows have to fart somewhere. Can the state import steel for infrastructure and buildings? Who (if anyone) offsets the carbon emissions associated with mining and processing that steel in New Yorkers do not?

And while on the topic of burden-shifting, absent huge breakthroughs in energy storage (possible!), NY State will have a major baseload power production problem. Their intended solution seems to be to free-ride off their neighbors on the regional grid, which may raise eyebrows in other states. You can ride but you can't hide from those angry ducks!

Oh, Boy! Say It Ain't So, Joe

Joe Gaffe-O-Matic Biden was at it again, this time talking up his civil relationship with some hard-line segregationist Dem Senators of the 70s. The Times:

Joe Biden, Recalling ‘Civility’ in Senate, Invokes Two Segregationist Senators

Joseph R. Biden Jr., defending himself on Tuesday night against suggestions that he is too “old fashioned” for today’s Democratic Party, invoked two Southern segregationist senators by name as he fondly recalled the “civility” of the Senate in the 1970s and 1980s.

Speaking at a fund-raiser at the Carlyle Hotel in New York City, Mr. Biden, 76, stressed the need to “be able to reach consensus under our system,” and cast his decades in the Senate as a time of relative comity. His remarks come as some in his party say that Mr. Biden is too focused on overtures to the right as he seeks the Democratic presidential nomination.

At the event, Mr. Biden noted that he served with the late Senators James O. Eastland of Mississippi and Herman Talmadge of Georgia, both Democrats who were staunch opponents of desegregation. Mr. Eastland was the powerful chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee when Mr. Biden entered the chamber in 1973.

That must have been the pre-cringe moment. Joe paid off with this next quote, which is begging to be taken out of context:

“I was in a caucus with James O. Eastland,” Mr. Biden said, slipping briefly into a Southern accent, according to a pool report from the fund-raiser. “He never called me ‘boy,’.

Oh my Joe, he never called you "boy" because you're white!!!

Well, fun's fun: the full quote is this, which is still pretty funny:

“He never called me ‘boy,’ he always called me ‘son.’”

Many are called 'son' but few are chosen. The good news: With Joe in it, CNN might even cut away from Trump occasionally  since we have a new, yet old and reliable, source for "WTF did I just hear?" moments.

 

CNN, Scooped!

CNN has long since moved on to obsessing about The Donald but The Atlantic runs a long piece detailing the search, and likely explanation, of missing Malaysian Airliner 370.

Spoiler: Highly probable it was a deliberate suicide run by the pilot. But the description of the puzzle-solving process is fascinating.

Happy Father's Day!

Be cool.

Back To The Law Books

The DoJ releases the memo we were promised in April backing SecTreas Mnuchin's refusal to cough up Trump's tax returns.

As I argued last May their argument was no doubt previewed in Mnuchin's 52 page letter of April 23 to House Chair Neal. However, I have yet to compare the two and, per the Times, a bit of legal water has passed under the bridge since April:

Mr. Engel’s argument that Congress lacked a legitimate legislative purpose in seeking Mr. Trump’s tax returns dovetailed closely with tracked arguments made by Mr. Trump’s legal team in lawsuits over congressional subpoenas to financial firms like Mazars USA for his financial records.

Two Federal District Court judges last month rejected that argument, refusing to block congressional subpoenas to such firms. One wrote that it was because Congress had put forth a valid argument for why it wanted them for legislative purposes and that it was “not for the court to question whether the committee’s actions are truly motivated by political considerations.” Mr. Trump is appealing the rulings.

One might wonder how the court can decline to assess the legitimacy of a Congressional legislative purpose in light of Watkins. My guess: In Watkins the Supreme Court found no legislative purpose was offered at all; in the current case, the Congress is offering a transparently pretextual one and daring the court to laugh out loud (OK, that is my humble editorial opinion).

Of course, the courts are often happy to swallow their whistle when the other two branches slug it out.

BONUS PEDANTRY: The Department of Redundancy Department loves the Times phrasing here:

Mr. Engel’s argument... dovetailed closely with tracked arguments made by Mr. Trump’s legal team".

This online publishing world moves so quickly - who has time to edit? Eventually that will get a correction but not a formal "Correction", being well within any gray/grey area. It took me a week to get this real one. Yeah, I keep score.

Oh, Man! Iran Behind Tanker Attack In Gulf of Oman?

SecState Pompeo fingers Iran:

Pompeo Says Intelligence Points to Iran in Tanker Attack in Gulf of Oman

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Thursday that intelligence reviewed by American officials showed that Iran was responsible for attacks earlier in the day on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, a critical waterway for the transit of much of the world’s oil.

Mr. Pompeo did not present any evidence to back up the assessment of Iran’s involvement. The assertion is certain to further fuel tensions between the Trump administration and Iranian leaders, which have been at heightened levels since early May, when the White House announced military movements in response to what American officials have said is an increased threat from Iran.

But do remember - this is "drumbeat of war" intelligence, which every proper progressive knows can be manipulated and politicized. Its totally different when its "Russians aided Trump" intelligence. Obviously.

Bringing The CIA To Justice

Hmm.

Justice Dept. Seeks to Question C.I.A. in Its Own Russia Investigation

WASHINGTON — Justice Department officials intend to interview senior C.I.A. officers as they review the Russia investigation, according to people briefed on the matter, indicating they are focused partly on the intelligence agencies’ most explosive conclusion about the 2016 election: that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia intervened to benefit Donald J. Trump.

The interview plans are the latest sign the Justice Department will take a critical look at the C.I.A.’s work on Russia’s election interference. Investigators want to talk with at least one senior counterintelligence official and a senior C.I.A. analyst, the people said. Both officials were involved in the agency’s work on understanding the Russian campaign to sabotage the election in 2016.

While the Justice Department review is not a criminal inquiry, it has provoked anxiety in the ranks of the C.I.A., according to former officials. Senior agency officials have questioned why the C.I.A.’s analytical work should be subjected to a federal prosecutor’s scrutiny. Attorney General William P. Barr, who is overseeing the review, assigned the United States attorney in Connecticut, John H. Durham, to conduct it.

As advertised.

Back At It-ish

Chaos reigns! (Evergreen...)

No Tariffs On Mexico

Trump announces a dramatic last-minute deal! Peter Baker of the Times goes on at length on a pint I have made before (Where? Hmm... this from Mar 2018 for sure.) - Trump creates this drama and then solves it. Or at least, "solves" it. North Korea has been the most harrowing example but the China trade war (with an inevitable "victory" in time to keep the economy humming for November 2020) is becoming the most consequential.

Weaker But Not Yet Weak

The Squawk Box consensus of the disappointing jobs report is that it shows a weaker economy but not a weak one. That said, I share their belief that Team Trump will want to re-think their trade wars in order to keep the economy perking until the fall of 2020.

Do let me add, last Christmas Trump had a valid point that the Fed was on the wrong path; they have since become more accommodating, as they indicated at the end of January.

The Longest Day

BTW, "The Longest day" is a quote from German general Rommel.

Say It Ain't So, Joe (Famous Joe Jackson "Black Sox" Quote)

Joe Biden plagiarizing again? Not exactly - we assume he hasn't read his position papers on climate change so its really a Staff Fail. Still...

Debt Service Redux

In a new service to their readership, the Times front pages Tomorrow's News Today: a debt ceiling crunch is approaching in late October/early November and Washington "leadership" may remain dysfunctional.

Well, OK. I'll add that to my list of worries but it won't crack the Top Ten for a while.

Sunday Afternoon

Another Big Game yesterday although I've heard that some folks lost concentration and were distracted by this.

Too Busy Mocking Obama To Enjoy The Joke

Obama ran his mouth in Brazil recently, spouting nonsense about gun laws in the US:

"Some of you may be aware our gun laws in the United States don't make much sense. Anybody can buy any weapon any time. Without much, if any, regulation, they can buy it over the Internet, they can buy machine guns," Obama told the audience.

Machine guns?!? Yeah, yeah, nonsense. 

But here's the kicker, and let's go to the videotape! Come in at the 40 second mark. What does the crowd do after Obama says "Anybody can buy any weapon any time"? They go nuts! What, did Brazil score a goal in the World Cup?

Not really. It turns out Brazil has very restrictive gun laws and very corrupt police. The upshot proves the old adage that when you outlaw guns, only outlaws will have guns. Their gun homicide rate is roughly five times that of the US.

The public is not happy. Back in 2006 they rejected by referendum an attempt to further limit civilian access to weapons. And their current President, a former paratrooper and law-and-order candidate, ran on a "Suns out, guns out" message:

Bolsonaro won the presidency by running on a far-right, law-and-order platform, and often delighted supporters at campaign stops with his signature “guns up” hand gesture. His maverick presidential run energized a base of rural landowners, Christian conservatives and free-market hawks who yearned for a tougher response to years of rising violence and political graft.

The temporary decree, which will expire in 120 days unless ratified by Congress, is likely to thrill his supporters, but many others fear it will only worsen violence in Brazil. The country suffered a record 64,000 murders in 2017, the most in the world. Nearly 45,000 of those homicides involved firearms.

A former paratrooper who took office on Jan. 1, Bolsonaro eventually wants to overturn a 2003 law that effectively banned the civilian purchase of guns.

“To guarantee citizens their legitimate right to defense, I, as president, will use this weapon,” Bolsonaro said, holding up the pen he used to sign the decree.

That was January. Bolsonaro issued another decree in May, which went to the courts.

In any case, Obama may have thought he was addressing yet another typical Dem fundraiser Upper West Side audience desperate for gun control. He chose poorly.

Saturday Morning

I heard there was a ball game last night.