Ebb And Flow

Nate Silver's 538 has polling indicating post-debate changes in polling position. Unsurprisingly, Biden lost support and Harris gained it. However, more Biden supporters moved to other candidates than to Harris.

Personally, I was delighted to see Kristen Gillibrand's net favorable rating decline, although probably not by a statistically significant margin. Boo 'er off!

Comments

[Jim Eagle]

You have to admit that the B-2 is some flying machine. I only wish it was during my time. I would have worked my ass off to crew it.

[MissMarple2]

I love this President. What a guy!

[Jim Eagle]

MM,

What I love is how the left are going apoplectic during his speech and flyovers.

[GUS]

Jack a B-2 flew low and slow over my in-laws house in Washington County, Wisconsin on July 4, about a dozen years ago.

WOW.

[clarice]

Somebody has to teach kids our real history.

[Jane]

What a GREat Great speech!

[Captain Hate]

the author is John Dingell's son

That apple ended up very far from the tree.

[Narciso79]

Indeed since the schools womt do it and they replaced schoolhouse rock with good morning America, not good for anyone.

So how is the inland situation, matt?

[Jane]

Jib,

Where are you watching the heft?

[GUS]

DJT has helped the FULL COMMIE back themselves into a corner.

[Extraneus]

Somebody has to teach kids our real history.

No kidding.

He can do this next year, too, even better.

[Jim Eagle]

Oh, for Christ's sake, does this is what it takes to be a Ph.D.? Boy, Frederick has written more historically competent essays than this guy. We have a problem in higher education and it is that we are handing out Doctorates to people with these kinds of theories and considerations. What an asshole.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/49177/hammer-salon-attacks-declaration-independence-josh-hammer

[Jim Eagle]

Jane,

Heft? I am in Florida on the First Coast in The Hammock.

[Jane]

I men the “left”

[Extraneus]

Has Trump referred to himself yet? We'd have heard 50 "I's" by now from Obama.

[Jane]

‘Mean”. Obviously i’m Losing my mind, but the real problem is that my nails are long and they are screwing up my typing.

[Narciso79]

Well hes mostly an idiot, why else would he be at the Huff po:

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_9650168

[Jim Eagle]

Jane,

Pick any website. CNN/MSNC, the alphabets, NYTimes, WaPo, HuffPost, Salon, etc. It's really predictable. I would love to give the Media the benefit of the doubt but because of our friends sbw and Don Surber, I have to be more considerate.

[Jane]

What aGREAT speech!

[GUS]

Real granite columns, and a wife with toned arms.

Did Reggie Love have toned arms.

[Narciso79]

Finding interesting reading material is a challenge the local paper is mercifully short, but still encrusted with mind Arson barnacles.
That sbw scrapes off with a cutlass

[Jim Eagle]

CH,

Remember Dingell was a blue dog NRA supporting Dem. Hard to do with a majority Dem congress. And he headed Energy committee and supported every damn coal, gas and nuclear developments.

[GUS]

CNN has a "panel" discussing the things.

[Jane]

Gus, if you are forced to watch CNN find a different hospital!

[GUS]

Baghdad John Kirby is speaking. Fucking clown.

[Jim Eagle]

Just came to me:

Who on the left has made as much money on their anti-American song as Lee Greenwood has made on his? Another metric no one has measured because of the results.

[Another Bob]

Trump tearing up at the end there?

[lyle]

I was, AB.

[Narciso79]

CNN Is what I catch on Pluto TV, which makes the doctor who reruns seem normal, they're all skrulls change my mind.

[GUS]

No Jane, I watched it on FOX.
I went to CNN to see the FULL COMMIES piss all over themselves. It's sad.

[MissMarple2]

Another Bob, I don't know about Trump tearing up, but I sure was.

I know every one of those service songs plus all 3 words of the Battle Hymn of the Republic. I learned them in grade school, thanks to Jean Ann Carson, my wonderful music teacher. I can sing along with them today.

How wonderful to see that music, hear our history, and see those flyovers! What a wonderful President!!! I am so proud of him, and so proud we elected him!

[Jim Eagle]

Yeah, but in reports from the infallible press, we are only an ordinary, maybe kind of country. Mollie Hemingway is my new heroine, BTW.

[GUS]

Funny huh? The New York Slimes isn't even average.

[Jim Eagle]

Hugo Gordon should take his yellow blazer back to England where it belongs since he doesn't understand us or our convictions. No wonder we won back in 1783.

[MissMarple2]

I have just been told that the children in the camps are being abused, that I am following an evil man, that I am brainwashed, and my daughter is ashamed of me.

I am going to start looking for senior housing where I can live by myself. I cannot take it anymore.

[Narciso79]

Heck even cornwallis would be embarrassed by his countrymen today to say nothing of kitchener or napier.

[Captain Hate]

Remember Dingell was a blue dog NRA supporting Dem.

Eh, the WSJ, back when it was a decent newspaper, fairly well skewered his role in an academic fraud case that I can't remember the particulars now but he came off pretty bad.

[Narciso79]

Was that the David baltimore case at John Hopkins

[Another Bob]

And Tulsi just lost a lot of her independent support.

https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/1146826917968044033?s=21

[Jim Eagle]

CH,

Whatever. My point was that John III may not have fallen that far from the tree..

[MissMarple2]

Ari Fleischer
‏Verified account @AriFleischer

That was the best speech Donald Trump has ever given. Wonderful tribute to the USA.

[GUS]

Sounds like your daughter eats the shit that FULL COMMIES feed her. So sorry Miss M.

[Captain Hate]

that I am brainwashed, and my daughter is ashamed of me.

Whoa. If I even thought my daughters were thinking that about me, there'd be hell to pay. I'm sorry you have to endure that disrespectful nonsense.

[MissMarple2]

GUS,

Indeed she does. Started when she was living in Milwaukee and getting her Masters.

She hates Trump because he resembles her dad, whom she despises for reasons I need not explain. You cannot reason with her.

Mostly I don't talk politics with her, but it has become apparent to me that I need to find a place by myself and quit being the housemaid and utility payer.

[Captain Hate]

Bingo, narc; do you know the details of that?

[Jim Eagle]

MM,

Find a way to get out now!

Assisted living will take your SS and Medicare. Then they subsidize you. Food, Board and their schedule.

Think it all through.

[MissMarple2]

Jack,

That is what I am going to do. My one problem is my dog, because most places won't take pets.

I am done with this. I have to figure out a way to get internet where I move to, though.

[GUS]

Miss M, what is her MASTERS in, and where did she receive it?

[Narciso79]

I initially bought the story:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the-scientist.com/commentary/dingell-hearings-on-science-fraud-more-overkill-than-oversight-61966/amp

[MissMarple2]

Brit Hume
‏Verified account @brithume

One thing the Trump speech was not about: it was not about him.

[MissMarple2]

GUS,

Masters in Library Science at University of Wisconsin. She had an undergrad in Fine Arts from Herron School of Art at IU. When she got married and moved to Milwaukee, her husband was a painter andwasn't earning very much money.

His sister talked her into the Library Science thing and got her to borrow money not only for the schooling but for their living expenses. So she has a huge amount of student loans she is carrying. (Needlss to say, no one asked me for my advice. I had gotten her through undergrad with NO DEBT.)

[Jim Eagle]

Jesus, Narc, were you even born in 1989? Why do you keep commenting on things that never happened in your adult lifetime as if you are some kind of expert pundit. It is getting tiring, guy.

[Buckeye]

Tucker is on a roll tonight.

[Captain Hate]

Thanks, narc; that's pretty much how I remembered it. There's even been a book written about it and it's a major component of at least two other books.

[Narciso79]

Congressional oversight does seem to be a much a scam as blue ribbon committees,

[Narciso79]

Its like the story behind the Warren hastings impeachment, a hack who had been passed over for the top Indian civil service post conjured it out of this air,

[peter]

Happy Fourth of July to all. It’s my in/laws 60th anniversary, and they rented a house in East Quogue, MY with (nearly) all their children and grandchildren. Went to Tiana Beach where they charged $25 to park. The parking attendants were these very cute high school kids from the Town of Southampton and I would bet they know Frederic.
I wish everyone s happy Fourth of July.
Feel better Gus

[Captain Hate]

Where did that come from, Jack? July 4 seems as good a day as any to talk about past things.

[Narciso79]

Its like the BBC with that agitprop starring Emma Thompson as their trump/le pen composite, of course HBO snapped it up.

[Manuel Transmission]

Catching up.

GUS. Quick recovery please. After being on the market for a couple three years, Steve Miller’s place finally sold for half the $17M he was asking. Went to some Microsquish dude.

JMH. Your post caused me to go look at my archive drive and found about 350 shots from 9/12. Almost like you, I only had a few of the gang. I think I was already honoring the low profile we generally honor. No shots of the luncheon and no shots of the Union Station repair after everything was over. Definitely some of Jane and Caro and Caro’s signs. Mostly shots of the amazing variety of brilliant signs that still ring true today.

My B-2 story. Driving down Case Rd going to KOSU one Saturday morning with about a 1000 overcast. Quiet. Nothing going on. As I glance across the field, what looks like a UFO slips out of the cloud layer aimed right at me. I damned near drove into the ditch. It slowly rolled away from me revealing its bottom profile. No sound. Holy crap!

[Another Bob]

“Where did that come from”

I’ve also assumed narc is over 30.

[MissMarple2]

A great crowd of tremendous Patriots this evening, all the way back to the Washington Monument! #SaluteToAmerica🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/nJghdfqIhX

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 5, 2019

Great photo at the link.

[Jim Eagle]

peter,

not many friends over the canal but they could be. $40 at Cooper's Beach in Southampton.

CH,

Just tired of his google pasting of shit he has no first-hand knowledge of. It seems to be his MO. there is no post he won't comment on. No one has the knowledge to do that. It is just disconcerting for me, and I know him. I have paid for his lunch. He thinks he knows about the Sand Box and he knows nothing only shit he knows to be true. But I lived all over it for 2 years and his version is like nothing I can even imagine as reality. I think he is a fantasist but everyone adores him.,

Good. I think he is a googler full of shit.

[Narciso79]

Yes tulsi ultimately doesn't get the point, theres like a scrambler that prevents them fro. groking the real deal,

[Another Bob]

(sigh)

[Narciso79]

I filled in the link, because contrary to opinion, I don't remember all the details, Baltimore ultimately was vindicated but just like Sen chief Gallagher or Lewis libby at great cost,

That is why Tom r's facile notions that everyone will turn out fine, sometimes that's true but more often than not charlatans and demagogues prevail.

[Jane]

MM’

You kids sound like my mother. Get out and have your own life. It’s scary but you will make it work.

[Rocco]

Hang in there narc, you're one of my favorites out here!

Honestly JiB...scroll the fuck on by. That was uncalled for!

[Jim Eagle]

Fireworks all over the beach. Beagles not impressed.

[Narciso79]

What struck me about that piece is posse comitatus is always presented as an unalloyed good. Which is understandable one doesn't want an warranted long term domestic military intervention but as with the military authorities in post war Europe, itd occasionally necessary

[cathyf]

This is a very important Italian-American holiday, The Feast Of the Strong Ice Cream. Happy Il Forte Gelato everyone!

[joan]

Nice to read on the 4th of July:

"I came to America because it was the land of the free, not the land of free stuff, the land of the brave, not of snowflakes, where freedom of speech was always more important than the percieved violence inflicted by a telling of the truth.
I came because it let me be me."

[Narciso79]

Thanks rocco.

There are supposed to be legal ethical standards that prevent inappropriate inquiries or ensure accountability, but that's only as good as those willing to abide by them

[Jim Eagle]

Rocco,

I know him you don’t. Not uncalled for. He comments on stuff he has no knowledge of only through google. Do you really want to rely on that?

I think if narciso is the basin of truth here then this is thetime to leave for good.

My God it’s as if Goebbles was resurrected..

[joan]

That post was from a thread from rising serpent, but typepad wouldn't let me post the link along with the quote.

I tried again, and still can't get the link to come up.

[clarice]

Last timeI'm biting the hook, MM. Tomorrow morning start by calling here:http://indianapolisseniorapartments.com/?gclid=CjwKCAjwx_boBRA9EiwA4kIELritCMjNS9bfOhuoque82GrF4GutvLfFjBDAe4sehH_oLBQMjdJIPxoCnx4QAvD_BwE

[clarice]

I'll toast to forte gelato any day, cathy f.

[clarice]

JiB!! Stop it.

[Jim Eagle]

Sorry, Clarice and all, I know he is a favorite but his commentary on shit he knows nothing about except through Google, which can be dismissed or accepted but mostly in my experience is wrong. Sure, he is a great guy to talk to but I am just tired of him commenting on everything posted here as if he has first-hand knowledge which he doesn't.

You want to accept him as your pet project, go for it. Me, I am past all that. No one without a job knows that much.

[clarice]

The fireworks display is fantastic:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03K5VZj0NNk

[Texas Liberty Gal]

I’m at son’s family and grandkids house playing outside among mosquitoes, then off to watch fireworks I just want to go home and watch Trump’s speech

[JM Hanes]

Wow, I would have loved to be there for that fly-over! It must have been pretty thrilling. Gives new meaning to "wing man."

MT:

I'd have loved your B-2 flyover too!

Back in the day, I used to spend time at a place up on the eastern edge of the Appalachians here in NC. I don't know which type of planes they were because I rarely ever saw them, but they used to practice low level reconnaissance out of Goldsboro flying west, and we were the first really sharp shift in elevation they came up on. Contra your experience, it was really, really loud, and sounded scary powerful -- except that it always gave me the warm fuzzies, thinking these guys were out there looking after us.

[Narciso79]

You hear a smattering of fireworks here, they were much more ever present in south Florida imho.

[clarice]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-put-citizenship-back-in-the-census-11562264430?mod=rsswn&fbclid=IwAR2n-1Hif1ipRjpRxRbpcsoAP4q8VPwMLkmn_jdlAh4bawUlgfTJRRX3-I8

14th Amendment argument:
Congress has dealt with suffrage-abridgement problems through other constitutional and statutory means, especially the Voting Rights Act. But that doesn’t change the constitutional obligation to obtain citizenship data. A future Congress could decide to rely on Section 2 to enforce voting rights, particularly as the VRA’s core provision, requiring Justice Department approval when certain states change voting procedures, becomes irrelevant because of changing attitudes and Supreme Court precedent.

Significantly, the last time the Supreme Court addressed Section 2, it emphasized the need to give effect to both Section 1, which includes the Equal Protection Clause, and 2 of the 14th Amendment. That case, Richardson v. Ramirez (1974), involved an equal protection challenge to California’s policy of disfranchising felons.

The president should issue an executive order stating that, to comply with the requirements of Section 2 of the 14th Amendment, the citizenship question will be added to the 2020 census. In addition, he can order the Commerce Department to undertake, on an emergency basis, a new Census Act rulemaking.

That would trigger another round of litigation. Opponents would choose a federal district court likely to block it again, and the Justice Department would have to seek the Supreme Court’s intervention during its summer recess. While rare, such an emergency review has happened before. With the justification for the citizenship question being clear and compelling, the administration should prevail.

[Jim Eagle]

JMH,

Probably Seymour Johnson before they shut it down in the late 70's. F-16's most likely. Enjoy the thunder.

My last post. Enjoy.

[JM Hanes]

The fireworks are wonderful. It's like peering into the deep space Trump Nebula!

[Narciso79]

Yes its tempting, maybe next time:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RonColeman/status/1146935677239607298

[JM Hanes]

Sleep tight, Jack!

[Jane]

IMO Narc is one of the smartest people here, and he’s not a bragger. I appreciate him a lot.

[clarice]

Rest up, JiB.

[Narciso79]

Dread pirate robert@ht mark o, didnt concern himself with any of this, she just threw out a grenade back to the same Obama judge and ducked

[JM Hanes]

Clarice:

I haven't read the SCOTUS ruling because I'm just too damn lazy I've been so busy. Does you know upon what reasoning the other 4 justices based their opinions?

[Narciso79]

It looks very convoluted:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scotusblog.com/2019/06/opinion-analysis-court-orders-do-over-on-citizenship-question-in-census-case/amp/

[Narciso79]

They should make it that can be simply understood and serve as a basis for further decisions.

[clarice]

jmh, it's one of those cases where there were multiple opinions. This is the best analysis I've found:https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/06/opinion-analysis-court-orders-do-over-on-citizenship-question-in-census-case/

[Narciso79]

When the redistricting isnt done up to date that means scores of voters may not be on the right voter rolls, but one cant deny them so one ends up filling out those pesky provisional ballots and we saw how that played in last fall didnt we.

[Narciso79]

We were on pin and needles to see if Abrams or gillum would win, but hes under criminal investigation right, which runs as fast as a Galapagos turtle.

[JM Hanes]

Thanks Narciso & Clarice. I'll check out the SCOTUSblog column.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Like Rick Wilson says, “Everything Trump touches Dies”. --

If only that were true there are a whole lotta people I'd love to see him reach out and touch, starting with the bulbous Bette.

[clarice]

jmh, there were several blogs there dealing wih various of the opinions as well, but on a quick search now I couldn't find them easily.