JustOneMinute

Taxing Wealth, One Way Or Another

The WSJ (MSN bootleg here) had a recent story about different Democrat plans to tax wealth:

Democrats’ Emerging Tax Idea: Look Beyond Income, Target Wealth

Lawmakers and 2020 candidates offer a range of options focused on capturing some of the trillions of dollars in assets belonging to the nation’s richest

The gist seems to be to go after unrealized capital gains:

At the end of 2017, U.S. households had $3.8 trillion in unrealized gains in stocks and investment funds, plus more in real estate, private businesses and artwork, according to the Economic Innovation Group, a nonprofit focused on bringing investment to low-income areas. Most of the value of estates over $100 million consists of unrealized gains, said a 2013 Federal Reserve study. Much has never been touched by individual income taxes and may never be.

Democrats are eager to tap that mountain of wealth to finance priorities such as expanding health-insurance coverage, combating climate change and aiding low-income households. Their ideas range from new rules on inherited assets, to a plan by Sen. Ron Wyden for annual taxes on unrealized gains, to a proposal from Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s to tax wealth itself. These come atop more conventional proposals to raise income taxes and expand estate taxes.

Ahh, well! I was talking this up myself last January.

In brief, above a high net worth threshold (eg, $50MM) impose mark-to-market accounting to end the eternal deferral of unrealized capital gains taxes. But to avoid forced sales to pay the tax bill (and to create a buffer account against possible future losses) allow deferred payment of the taxes over ten years. The deferral is similar in spirit to the estate tax rule allowing a fourteen year deferral when the main estate asset is a business but a ten year period falls within the CBO budget assessment rules.

Public securities are easily valued. Real estate and private companies (eg, Koch Industries and many tech start-ups) are routinely valued by lenders and other marker professionals. Art collections are routinely assessed by insurers or other experts. Maybe re-assessment for tax purposes are bi-annually or even less frequent, just for simplicity, but these problems are easily solved (and especially easily for me, since I'm just typing and hand-waving in my PJs.)

Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee and is working on his ideas.

A similar idea was described in a 2015 paper by David Miller.

Lost Track Of Time

OK, here we go. I missed a day or two in there.

Sunday Excitement

Here we go again.

Somewhere on my To-Do list is to research this Russian floating power station.

Some background here. Lots of design ideas out there.

Forbes article on China's entry.

US Dept. of Energy under Steve Perry says "Don't Stop Believing".

NuScale, up in Oregon, has a design. More from DoE. NuScale has Phases 2 and 3 design approvals from the NRC.

Lots to take in on modular nuclear reactors.

Future Chaos Today

Those who are awaiting the final push to the summit of Peak Crazy may agree that an early exit for RBG will get us there.

Here's hoping she makes it to 2021.

Where's The Beef?

The meatless diet can be added to the won't-be-happening list.

Greenland Debate Turns Icy

Trump to snub Denmark because their PM had the same reaction the idea of the US purchasing Greenland as everyone else?

Cue "I Started A Joke".

Circling Back Towards Sanity?

Democratic entrants in the "Whose The Wokest of Them All - 2020" competition are backpedaling a bit on their support for Medicare For All. Harry Reid, a dinosaur but not a DINO, blasts their open borders posturing. And other lonely moderate Democrats worry about their current pandering to suburban voters on gun control. He makes the same seemingly obvious point I've made - winning votes in CA, NY and MA doesn't help the Democrats; losing votes in PA, MI and WI hurts them:

But moderates fear that Democrats pushing the most sweeping ideas risk alienating centrist voters who are ambivalent or uneasy about President Donald Trump's tumultuous term.

 

"Political concerns about gun safety measures aren't as acute as they were in 2000, but they're not completely gone," said Matt Bennett, executive vice president for public affairs at Third Way, a centrist Democratic group. "Even a diminished NRA is dangerous. More importantly, we don't want to write Trump's ads for him. Overreaching on an issue as charged as this is a bad idea in an epochal election like this one. It won't help us win the blue wall states we need to defeat Trump, and it certainly won't help us win states like Colorado, Arizona, Maine and Alabama to give a Democratic president a governing majority in the Senate."

Common sense is not as common as people think.

Defending The Founding Fathers

Rich Lowry takes on the NY Times 1619 production, which explained that the US revolution was motivated by a desire to avoid the British abolitionists. He has them outnumbered.

Frequently Unasked Questions: This NY Times 1619 project has a broad scope and its mission is to show that America was founded on slavery, built by slaves and remains hideously racist today. My queston - what is the involvement of Times editor Sarah Jeong, who quite famously hates white people (but its OK, because progressive reasons.)

Campaign Disclosure Follies

FEC campaign donation disclosure rules seem to require the public release of all donors, even as small as $1, who contribute through a conduit like ActBlue.

I expect quick action to change this, despite the doxxing by the Castro brothers of Trump donors.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I have to check whether my donations to Marianne Williamson and Amy Klobuchar went through. I also can't remember if I gave in to my desire to list my occupation as "Astronaut".

Sunday Action

Apropos of nothing:

Overheard in a Starbucks:

Disgruntled Biden backer nostalgic for a past than never was: Can you remind me what 'venti' means?

Warren-backing barista: It means my degree in Fine Arts landed me this gig.

Roll, Beto Roll

Beto has re-booted his campaign and now I'm booting too:

The Daily 202: The newest purity test for Democrats is whether to mandate assault weapons buybacks

Oh, brother.

Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke unveiled a detailed gun-control proposal this morning that calls for a “mandatory buyback program for assault weapons and a voluntary buyback program for handguns.” Critics say this would amount to government confiscation of firearms that people have bought legally. O’Rourke proposes an increase in the excise tax on gun manufacturers and stiff fines on gun traffickers to enable the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives to purchase all the assault weapons he wants to ban. Individuals who fail to sell their assault rifles would then face fines.

O’Rourke is taking this hard line as he restarts his campaign nearly two weeks after 22 people were massacred at a Walmart in his hometown of El Paso, the deadliest attack against the Latino community in American history. The former congressman’s plan also calls for creating a nationwide gun licensing system. “If at this moment we do not wake up to this threat, then we, as a country, will die in our sleep,” O’Rourke said in an emotional half-hour speech yesterday.

Oh, brother brother.

First, as a matter of rhetoric I hate his speechwriter's decision to go with 'If we don't wake up to this threat, we will die in our sleep from gun violence'. Sure, sleep, wake, got it. But its a clash of imagery - what, I'm going to get shot while I'm asleep? How? During a home invasion? Why would I agree to disarm after having that idea put in my head?

And anyway, dying in one's sleep is an aspiration! What's the old folk wisdom? "I want to die in my sleep like my uncle, not screaming like terror like the passengers in his car".

As to the politics, this proposal ranks up their with open borders and free health café for undocumented future Democrats. Do Beto, Liz Warren and others think they can win the Presidency (and hold the House) by boosting their support in California, New York and Massachusetts while cratering it in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin? Do they even remember the idea of "swing states" or are they moving left so fast they think they've already abolished the Electoral College?

The crazy is coming faster then ever in the Dem nominating process. And wait until a few of the moderates drop out and the rest (like Beto) reposition. Hang on!

Thursday Afternoon

I'm on tilt here.

OK, here we go: Ebola "cured-ish", if treatment is early. This is a BFD, and to whom do we owe thanks? The US taxpayer and, well, terrorism-inspired paranoia.

From the Times:

A Cure for Ebola? Two New Treatments Prove Highly Effective in Congo

The therapies saved roughly 90 percent of the patients who were newly infected, a turning point in the decades-long fight against the virus.

...

REGN-EB3 is made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals of Tarrytown, N.Y., which also makes other antibody treatments. Dr. Fauci’s institute, which is part of the National Institutes of Health, developed mAb114 and licensed production last year to Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, a Miami company.

[LONG Skip and...]

Development of the new treatments was supported by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, a division of the Department of Health and Human Services concerned with fighting chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats, and pandemic diseases.

Your tax dollars at work! In partnership with two private companies, so something for everyone. Come 2021 President Bernie will be investigating these companies and fining or jailing them for not having finished this sooner, but let's focus on the now. Here is HHS announcing the new trial last year:

Actions under Project BioShield could protect health from bioterrorism, naturally occurring outbreaks

 

Hundreds of thousands of Americans could be protected from or treated for Ebola infections through the first purchase of vaccines and therapeutic drugs by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA ), part of the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response  (ASPR) within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The vaccines and drugs are the first for Ebola to receive Project BioShield  funding which supports late-stage development toward licensure and stockpile purchases.

 

“Today we are prepared to add four Ebola countermeasures to the stockpile whereas three years ago, very few products were even in early stages of development,” BARDA Director Rick Bright, Ph.D., said. “This marks a pivotal moment in U.S. and global preparedness for future public health emergencies from viral hemorrhagic fevers like Ebola. We reached this point at unprecedented speed, and that’s a direct result of innovative approaches to product development and to partnering across the U.S. government, other nations, and private industry.”

 

Ebola  is considered a potential bioterrorism threat by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security as well as a naturally occurring public health threat. Natural Ebola outbreaks occur most often in African countries, the most recent, from 2014 through 2016. According to the World Health Organization, during that outbreak more than 28,600 cases of Ebola virus infection were suspected, probable or confirmed and more than 11,000 people died.

Don't run out and buy Regeneron (REGN) stock, however- no one is sure whether or how they will make money on this.

And the other winner, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics? As best I can tell it is owned and funded by a doctor and his wife, a health care investor, both of whom seem to have struck it rich as hedge fund heroes and are running this company to do good:

Headquartered in Miami, Florida, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics is a privately held, majority woman owned biotechnology company focused on orphan and infectious diseases.  Life to date, all funding for Ridgeback Biotherapeutics has originated from Wayne and Wendy Holman; two science driven individuals who invest in technologies that they believe will make the world a better place.  The team at Ridgeback is dedicated to working toward finding life-saving and life changing solutions for patients and diseases that need champions.

Yeah, take THAT, Bill and Melinda Gates!

OK, good for them, good for us, and thank you. (Now, Bernie, lock 'em up, amirite!)

 

 

Neither Trump Nor Epstein! Fredo Breaks Bad!

Vacationing Chris 'Fredo' Cuomo captured a news cycle by, well, threatening to throw it down some stairs.

It's August and this is SO much more fun than writing about Jeffrey Epstein, Orange Man Bad, mass shootings, gun laws, tariffs, Hong Kong protestors about to be massacred, or most news, actually. (I saw a tweet today: "Breaking News will continue until morale improves.")

The raging controversy - is "Fredo" an ethnic slur with specific anti-Italian connotations, or just an off-the-shelf insult suitable for any weak, underachieving sibling like Fredo Cuomo?

Not really a tough call - before dropping 25 f-bombs and REALLY leaning into his DeNiro/Pacino Mafia thug impression, Cuomo explained the offense:

CHRIS CUOMO: No, punk ass bitches from the right call me Fredo. My name is Chris Cuomo, I’m an anchor on CNN.

Fredo is from The Godfather. He was that weak brother. And they use it as an Italian aspersion. Any of you Italian?

Please. The idea that "Fredo" implies Italians are class-less Mafia thugs didn't seem to bother him. Although he probably hears "Fredo" a lot, both on-air and In Real Life, so he might be especially sensitive to it.

The Captain has more. 

Sunday Chit-Chat, or, I Love A Locked Room Mystery

My keen nose for news is right on the pulse of the nation and I have an idea that the Jeffrey Epstein "suicide" is on people's minds.

The left has adopted Epstein as their "Get Trump" replacement for Russian collusion and the right has loathed the Clintons for decades, so there is plenty of energy for a long, long look. I just wonder who has the credibility to placate both sides with whatever story the establishment cobbles together. This could be (probably will be!) the JFK/Warren Commission of our generation.

BONUS ERRATA: I want to save these links on mass shootings:

Vox on the different databases;

Mass Shootings aren't becoming more common;

And a Dem panel yesterday on gun control. That should be interesting, by which I mean terrifying in a detached from reality way.

This screams for more background:

And before she spoke at the forum, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts unveiled a series of proposals to address gun violence, with an ambitious goal for her presidency: reducing gun deaths by 80 percent.

Normally the progressives and the Times include suicides in "gun deaths" to inflate the figures. Suicides are about 65% of total gun deaths. Short of confiscation, I can't imagine how Warren cuts suicides by 80%, so... my guess is Warren us talking about homicides for purposes of headlining a goal we will describe as "ambitious".

I have not one but two outside the box ideas on the current gun debate. First, liberals will turn against Red Flag laws when creative inner city DAs and police chiefs start using them on urban drug gangs.

Second, one day, maybe soon, libs will realize that the headline grabbing "mass shooting" deaths average about 100 per year. They make news because the randomness threatens the pleasant, middle-class folks who moved to a nice suburb like Newtown or Parkland to get away from urban crime (hear the dog whistle?!?). Woke Dems will demand a change in the focus without somehow implicating urban drug gangs, and good luck to them.

A the Unifying Thread: Urban gun violence and Central American refugees are linked by our War on Drugs. What's the exit strategy?

I Predict This Will Prove To Be An Open-Carry Train Wreck

This news report about a possible mass shooter in a Missouri WalMArt is being spun by some as "good guy with gun stops bad guy with gun".

IMHO that won't hold up. The real story will be "Gun nut exercising his Missouri open-carry rights terrorizes a WalMart, is lucky he wasn't shot". I predict his narrative will be, "We all learned WalMArts are dangerous so I armored up and gunned up to protect myself and others". 

A dark horse - a lefty provacateur making a point about the problems with open carry. I doubt a lefty has the props or the chops for a stunt like this.

Time will tell, although this 5 Fast Facts came in after my bets were down on Twitter.

NOBODY LIKES AN 'I TOLD YO SO': So nobody will like this:

Armed Man Who Caused Panic at Missouri Walmart Said It Was 2nd Amendment Test, Authorities Say

Groan. I'm on your side, buddy. Try being on my side.

The Uneasy Compromise Of Campaign Finance Disclosure Is Ruptured

Why did it take so long for this to become a Resistance tactic?

Joaquin Castro Posts Names, Employers Of Trump Donors

Democratic Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro on Monday tweeted the names and employers of 44 San Antonio residents who donated the federal maximum to President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign.

Castro, whose district includes much of San Antonio, claimed the donors “are fueling a campaign of hate that labels Hispanic immigrants as ‘invaders.'” Castro is the twin brother of Democratic presidential candidate Julian Castro and chairs his presidential campaign.

In an era where Administration officials and prominent Republicans are being mobbed and chased out of restaurants (not to mention shot at on ballfields) one wonders where Castro thought this would lead.

Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh is demanding Castro delete the post.

“Democrats want to talk about inciting violence? This naming of private citizens and their employers is reckless and irresponsible. He is endangering the safety of people he is supposed to be representing,” Murtaugh told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Yes.

Legally the FEC database is public record and the Congressman seems to be on solid ground. But ethically? These campaign finance disclosure rules are meant as a check on "special interests" and the politicians who might end up with reveal conflicts of interest. They are NOT meant to allow incumbents to stir up their supporters and silence the opposition.

I would say that particular bit of etiquette has been widely observed. I can remember Brendan Eich, formerly and famously of Mozilla, was outed as a Prop 8 financial supporter opposed to gay marriage and lost his Silicon Valley job. Other public examples escape me.

Now, my strong impression is that many people balance their disclosable campaign contributions with their personal and/or professional lives. Media members don't seem to put their money where there mouths and keyboards are, presumably to avoid documentation of their preferences. And I suspect I have read that aspiring academics should avoid contributing to Republicans, just in case a review board peeks at the FEC database.

But if the words "chilling effect" still have meaning, what Castro has done here is way over the line. Finance disclosure laws exist in tension with the principle of a private ballot. Especially in this day and age of easily accessed electronic databases, We the People simply won't accept new rules requiring disclosure. Good luck, for example, expanding the disclosure rules on "dark money" PACs.

ERRATA: I am drawing a blank but some new proposed rule on disclosure was recently aired and conservatives objected that it would simply facilitate CNN's doxxing of everyone whose politics they found objectionable. Can't remember more, but it would tie in here nicely.

Let's Assault Logic

The NY Post calls for an assault weapons ban based on, well, hmm:

Come up with answers. Now. Beginning with the return of an assault weapons ban.

We know: That label doesn’t actually describe a clear class of guns. And that some studies show that the last ban, in effect from 1994 to 2004, had a limited impact. But that simply means the next ban should be better written, with a clear definition focused on factors like firepower — rate of fire, muzzle velocity, etc. — not on cosmetic features.

The Supreme Court has ruled that the Second Amendment protects the right to own “guns in common use.” That doesn’t cover the semiautomatic weapons regularly used only in mass shootings.

Charles Cooke of NR steps into the breach:

The New York Post’s editorial board has written a fawning open letter to President Trump in which it asks him to “ban assault weapons now.” It is, from start to finish, a profoundly lazy, impressively ignorant, and doggedly cliché-ridden piece of work that at no point even attempts to deal seriously with the arguments that it believes it is refuting.

Put him down as "Undecided".

Its primary flaw is a chronic — perhaps even proud — lack of precision. The editors acknowledge that the term “assault weapon” “doesn’t actually describe a clear class of guns,” but then demand that the ban they covet be predicated upon “a clear definition focused on factors like firepower — rate of fire, muzzle velocity, etc. — not on cosmetic features.” But there is a reason that both state-level bans and the now-expired 1994 federal ban were cosmetic in nature, and that reason is that the sorts of rifles that the Post wants banned do not differ either in their “rate of fire” or “muzzle velocity” from the sorts of guns that the Post does not want to ban.

The Post’s editors insist that they have no interest in taking away weapons from people “who hunt or keep guns for self-defense.” But that is exactly what their approach would do. The AR-15 and AK-47 — the guns used in Dayton and El Paso respectively — both have exactly the same “rate of fire” as does every other semi-automatic firearm on sale in America. 

Libs should try to understand this "assault weapons" issue and then either call for a ban on ALL semiautomatic rifles with easily detachable magazines, or they should move on.

But they won't.

FWIW: My fave Scary/Not Scary pic.

Oh, if Kirsten Gillibrand could please do her predictable gun control posturing on assault weapons and have someone respond "I'm only here for the Ranch." Here's hoping!

Multiple Mass Shooting Open Thread

Resuming one of the great brain-locked debates of this last few decades.

Evolve Or Die!

The NY Times tells us that young Republicans want a stronger stance on climate change. Help is on the way - Politico talks about Republicans in Congress looking for something stronger than outright denialism - but... that Dem wave last fall swept away a lot of Republican moderates, including climate moderates.

Ad to the youth movement, old timers like me can remember when leftists seized on any available problem and insisted the only possible solution was massive government regulation. In that spirit, here is Paul Krugman, circa 1998, bashing Al Gore's 'Earth in the Balance" for its ignorance of market-oriented solutions to pollution problems.

I will say that the Green New Deal has been successful in moving the Overton Window, so once far-out ideas now seem moderate by comparison. And speaking of far-out (or otherwise), here is Rep advisor Greg Mankiw advocating a revenue-neutral carbon tax back in 2007. A globally coordinated tax, no less! Here in the US they suggested an off-setting cut in the payroll tax. That somewhat covers the apparently regressive nature of the carbon tax but leaves retirees somewhat high and dry.

From a different direction, Tyler Cowen notes that if the US and Europe cut back on their use of oil and coal the price will drop. That will make it less economically attractive for developing nations to switch to other technologies, unless those new technologies are price competitive on their own merits.

I stand by my earlier Bold Prediction: China is has major coastal cities and is most threatened by climate change; they will engage in pre-emptive unilateral geo-engineering if the world's climate becomes increasingly dire. The good news being, here in the US we will neither die nor need to make any decisions.

Seven Up!

Seven Dem hopefuls have qualified for the next debate. Three more look like and another three are, like Mets, clinging to what will prove to be a false hope.

Three other candidates are very close: The former housing secretary Julián Castro and the entrepreneur Andrew Yang have surpassed 130,000 donations and each have three of the four qualifying polls they need, while Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has met the polling threshold and has about 120,000 donors.

Beyond them, only three candidates have even a single qualifying poll to their name: the impeachment activist Tom Steyer (2 polls), Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii (1) and former Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado (1).

Yang and Castro had good nights at the debate so their poll numbers shouldn't go down. 10,000 new donors for Klobuchar? Should be easy. [So easy she announced Friday she is already there.]

As to Kristen Gillibrand, if her judgment is so poor she thought she could successfully misrepresent a dusty old op-ed to attack Joe Biden she deserves to be left behind.

This Is Why We Watch - Biden v. Inslee

My pick for the debate highlight was too silly to make the news but here we go: VP Joe Biden and Gov. Inslee were grappling on energy policy and climate change. Inslee was insisting that time is running out and we had to take BOLD STEPS NOW, leading to this classic exchange:

INSLEE: ...I've heard you say that we need a realistic plan. Here's what I believe...

BIDEN: No, I didn't say that.

We can't put up realistic plans, this is a Democratic debate!