Back To Brexit

As we approach the final countdown on Brexit, here is flow chart of possible scenarios. It's the sort of thing we normally enjoy in December as the NFL PLayoffs come into focus and forty-seven teams jockey for eleventy spots.

 

Comments

[James D.]

Despite their freakish skill at board games, computer algorithms do not possess anything resembling human wisdom, common sense, or critical thinking.

Neither do most government employees, but we let them write and enforce the laws anyway.

[Another Bob]

“Despite their freakish skill at board games, computer algorithms do not possess anything resembling human wisdom, common sense, or critical thinking.”

I’ve never understood why anybody thought that.

[Threadkiller]

It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing. A once in a lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of “Boneheads.”

Decoding Trump suggests to me that he is nervous about the economy and how strong it will be at election time so he is creating a scapegoat. Insult Powell enough and maybe Powell doesn't budge the rate enough to match Trump's request.

"See, Powell wrecked the economy!"

I don't see any possibility of the rate going negative, so Powell will never be in the clear.

Kabuki.

[henry]

Real Time Economics @WSJecon
1m

House Democrats are discussing changes to Social Security through a combination of tax increases, tax cuts and larger benefits, which would make the program solvent for at least 75 years

[Another Bob]

And it’s not a matter of “freakish skill”, it’s the ability to brute-force calculate.

[henry]

Another Bob, quality marketing of "AI" (aka junk statistics) fooled the masses.

[Another Bob]

“House Democrats are discussing changes to Social Security through a combination of tax increases, tax cuts and larger benefits, which would make the program solvent for at least 75 years”

Literally LOL...

[henry]

Yeah... a tax increase and some bs about gender and racial inequality in payouts.

[Narciso79]

Well we know greenspans rate reset, popped the subprime bubble so this is the concern, what percent of finance is subject to adjustment

[Old Lurker]

A-bob, as complicated as they seem, it really is just what I said. Any rational investor will "price" or "value" a projected stream of future cash flows by discounting that stream at a rate that reflects the investor's sense of certainty of the correctness of the projection on that day. Into that simple statement are buried all of the variables including the psychology of current and future investors, foreign and domestic.

I owned (sold it at year 15) an office building which was leased to the Federal Government for 20 years. But because in theory the government can cancel a lease easier than it can repudiate a bond, and because at any positive discount rate a residual value at year 20 is some positive number, and because buildings can burn down, an investor would always pay more for a like term bond, and the "more" is reasonably constant in normal times. I have some shopping centers whose tenants come and go, especially with Amazon lurking. Any investor that would buy my centers would want a yield higher than he would demand for said office building. And so on down the food chain.

It is ALWAYS the net present value of projected future cash flows, where the discount rate is determined by the investor each and every day.

[Narciso79]

What abacus are they using henry?

[henry]

judicial ping pong.

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals – long a liberal bastion that has been aggressively reshaped into a more moderate court by the Trump administration – handed the president a major win late Monday, lifting a nationwide injunction on his asylum policy.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/9th-circuit-hands-trump-major-win-on-asylum-policy

[Buckeye]

As seen in the WSJ regarding Bolton:

The White House loses a voice willing to disagree with the President.

Who the hell was in the White House disagreeing with Obama??

[Melinda]

TK-

There is NO recession in the pipeline.

None: http://logistics-manager.com/2019/09/11/port-los-angeles-sets-another-august-cargo-record/

[Melinda]

Negative Interest rates are an unlegislated tax on the investing public.

By design.

Fueled by Central Bank buying of sovereign debt without any price sensitivity from a club of pre-selected winners.

Change my mind.

[Threadkiller]

I don't disagree, Mel. I just see Trump's language against Powell as covering a base, just in case.

Do you see negative interest in the pipeline prior to Nov 2020?

[Melinda]

It's cover for something, or somebody, that much is obvious, I just have no idea who it's for...

So instead, I'll just munch on my breakfast popcorn while I'm waiting because ZH is promoting Sara Carter's piece on Gen. Flynn's exoneration and the prosecutor's "problems".

Heh, heh, heh....

[Melinda]

No, no negative rates here. China will dump some of its holdings before that happens.

[sbwaters]

Despite their freakish skill at board games, computer algorithms do not possess anything resembling human wisdom, common sense, or critical thinking.

Computer algorithms will offer the opportunity to screw up in new and excruciating ways humans could never hope to think of.

[James D.]

The White House loses a voice willing to disagree with the President.

Yeah, the same voice that everyone in the MSM told us was an irresponsible, bloodthirsty warmonger when he was hired by Trump.

Seriously, do these assholes (sorry, I'm too annoyed to be polite this morning) not realize that the things they write are, you know, preserved on the Internet, and us deplorable peons can use things called "search engines" to go back and compare what they told us six months ago with what they're saying today?

[henry]

James D, to paraphrase:

Despite their freakish skill at narratives, journolists do not possess anything resembling human wisdom, common sense, or critical thinking.

[James D.]

Speaking of lying assholes ion the MSM, Flathead Friedman has a spectacularly stupid (even by his low standards) column in today's NYT.

It's all about how Huawei and how they have a plan to end the US-China trade war.

It occurs to me that, unlike some of the other propagandists carrying water for the Chinese Communist Party, Friedman would be saying the same crap even if they didn't pay him.

[Buckeye]

deplorable peons can use things called "search engines" to go back and compare what they told us six months ago with what they're saying today?

They know most are too lazy to do that, and that most also can't remember what they had for breakfast yesterday.

[Threadkiller]

Speaking of ports, here a couple of videos of loading of ships similar to the capsized one in Georgia:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T0H8TgWX-lY

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b5pD9noqBtM

Looks like the cars are held down in the front only.i can't imagine the condition of the 4000 cars on that ship.

[Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA]

"Airplanes" took aim
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/341686/

[James D.]

Via Insty, a useful reminder for today:

https://amgreatness.com/2019/09/10/never-forget-how-u-s-intelligence-failed-you/

[Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA]

https://www.bing.com/search?q=images+of+twin+tower+jumpers&go=Submit&qs=n&form=QBLH&sp=-1&pq=images+of+twin+tower+jumpers&sc=1-28&sk=&cvid=8604F0B789854F1498528360ECD0F1C7

[jimmyk]

From last night Jim in Sunnyvale:
“Bishop's victory was relatively wide?”

He won by 2 percent, compared to the couple hundred vote margin in the general election (which was tainted by the ballot harvesting that Democrats get away with elsewhere). So yes, I’d call that relatively wide.

[Narciso79]

Flathead was alway dense but it wasnt till i discovered that israeli stringers account, that i knew how dense.

[Jane]

Note to self: search for mayo jars at Anon’s house!

[The Infamous Ignatz]

--Using a Windows 10 computer that had to be completely restored after a virus attack about four years ago.--

peter,
As I recall MS said old versions of Windows 10 were about to become "unsupported" right about now. The creeps kind of boxed me into an update a couple of weeks ago so my machine spent several hours automatically installing a new supported version.
Maybe that's the problem.

[Narciso79]

So yahoo finance headlimes, three stocks to sell right now, you mean like yahoo?

[hrtshpdbox]

As long as the government has guns and can confiscate money from "taxpayers", they are the "safest".

By that logic, might as well take a big sack of the currency issued by these armed thieves (as they control the game and so their credit-worthiness is beyond question) and store it under your mattress, saving the negative interest you would have paid the armed thieves by buying their bonds.

Negative interest bonds make as much sense, of course, as accepting 99 cents when you ask the bank to break a dollar - they exist primarily for currency speculators and hedgers, whether individuals or governments. If I (say I'm some European central bank) need more exposure to strong dollars to reduce currency risk in my portfolio, I don't mind enduring flat or slightly negative yields if it means I can capture profit or reduce loss. An ordinary individual who wants the reliability of a fixed maturity date can always fins a gov't 10-year from somewhere around the world that's at least in the plus column, no matter how conservative they are (and then that investor too becomes, like the banks, someone with currency risk depending on whose bond they've bought): Current 10-yr's: https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds
Still, unless you believe the world is about to end, income investors only need corporate or municipal bond funds, dividend-paying stocks, etc.

[The Infamous Ignatz]

Think I linked this previously.
How Negative Interest Rates Screw Up The Economy.

Negative interest rates are terrible for banks. They destroy the business model for banks. They make future bank collapses more likely because banks cannot build capital to absorb losses. But banks are a crucial factor in a modern economy. It’s like an electric utility. You can somehow survive without electricity, but a modern economy cannot thrive without electricity. Same thing for the role commercial banking plays.

[Dave (in MA)]

Some airplanes did something.

[Dave (in MA)]

Note to self: search for mayo jars at Anon’s house!

Do they contain a bunch of Carnac questions?

[hrtshpdbox]

We taught the computers the human wisdom, common sense, and critical thinking necessary to do one very tiny thing, i.e. beat another human at one game. We can probably teach them everything else intrinsically human as well, no problem as long as we maintain the ability to pull the plug.

[hrtshpdbox]

Some airplanes did something.

Yeah...something happened.

[anonamom]

No, Bishop's victory was NOT wide, though it was solid--it was thanks to the middle class, deplorable Christian people who left Mecklenburg for Union County over the past two decades for affordable homes and decent schools as we've become solidly blue--D mayor, City Council--and voted for Bishop in huge numbers.

A majority of voters in this district, even rural counties of Anson, Scotland, and Robeson, voted for his opponent, for socialism.

[Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA]

Hysterically funny, though long.
Consider watching a couple minutes and go from there
ttps://videos.utahgunexchange.com/watch/the-last-straw-intellectual-froglegs_RHv2TH1ZaaUh9Dv.html

[matt - deplore me if you must]

Kev, you're in my prayers. Sounds like you're gonna tame this beast nicely.

What is good for the central bankers is not necessarily good for the people, especially those on fixed incomes.Ford's paper has now been rated junk, which does not give me the warm and fuzzies. And the hit of the Frankfurt Auto Show is all of the EV's.

LA wants to sign a massive contract for solar and shut down 3 NG power plants, not realizing that there are cloudy days and what the experts call "night".

It would seem that we are living in an age of mass delusion. Get yer' tulip bulbs!! It's a sure thing! step right up!

[Old Lurker]

Jim "Airplanes" took aim..."

Is just like "Pedestrian run over by SUV..."

or even

"My gun went out and killed somebody..."

Seems like everything has a life except, well, unborn babies.

[Narciso79]

Indeed matt, heinlein must be thinking i didnt mean this crazy.

[Dave (in MA)]

T-Mag is revisiting Plame,
https://twitter.com/Tom_Maguire

[Buckeye]

And the hit of the Frankfurt Auto Show is all of the EV's.

Germans have gone full lunatic.

Merkel is not an accident.

[Dave (in MA)]

Robert J. O'Neill@mchooyah
·It’s 10:25am in Manhattan on 9/11.
@RepJerryNadler represents you. Nothing heard.

[Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA]

Flight 93:
"Unlike those on the earlier flights, the hostages on 93 understood they were aboard a flying bomb intended to kill thousands of their fellow citizens. They knew there would be no happy ending. So they gave us the next best thing, a hopeful ending"

Posted at Instapundit

[James D.]

What is good for the central bankers is not necessarily good for the people, especially those on fixed incomes.

I'd take the "necessarily" out of that sentence, and drop the "especially..." clause.

[Captain Hate]

Will HBO be doing a special on the divorce of file clerk Plame and her fat slob husband (which the unfree press was oddly uninterested about)? I suggest casting Amy Schumer and Michael Moore; they should have the chance to be in something funny at least once.

[Narciso79]

You know thats one film fair game ive never seem aired on cable, there was that other ons with beckinsale and farmiga that does get regulat play, thats hos bad it is,

[Narciso79]

Of course bezos is funding the dan jones appreciation project, but they picked kylo ren as a star, so thats dead in the water.

[clarice]

https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2019/09/11/nolte-new-york-times-says-airplanes-took-aim-at-world-trade-center-on-9-11/?fbclid=IwAR0S_x_60U2fmrLut070O1D_wKLzVVZVY_OuMpzgR9Vi5UOreFCRgI76IL4
some airplanes took aim

[Narciso79]

You know i disdained bob grahams investigations into san diego and other parts as quixotic but he actually had a point.

[clarice]

Amazing, isn't it--how the press sat on the Plame-Wilson divorce for 2 years?

[Narciso79]

Covering with a parachute, clarice.

[Narciso79]

But all rhe news is focused on the juul menace, now i dont smoke for understandable reasons, but good grief.

[clarice]

Fill the cape with drugs, get lung problems, then blame the gear. Really?

[clarice]

Vape, not cape.

[henry]

drug dealers don't have insurance, ergo blame the deep pockets

[Old Lurker]

Actual email exchange just now between me and my beloved Boston Lib owner of the sailboat I get to crew sometimes. Upon having to cancel today's sail because of Small Craft Warnings, he sent me this:

"OL, no sail today. I guess that fool Ross is running the weather after all."

To which I responded:

"Captain, My Captain. Well, W steered Katrina into Poor Black New Orleans so I guess he passed over the master weather control box to Trump?

Then again, Obama said the seas stopped rising when he was elected, so perhaps the controls live in the Oval Office?"

[Narciso79]

Even ryan maue has gone full alabama!! There was a scenario that aeemed even more unlikely i heard on saturday, before the atorm.

[Narciso79]

Hold my (whatever the local beverage)

https://mobile.twitter.com/alimhaider/status/1171614103963688961

[henry]

UW.

Vicki McKenna @VickiMcKenna
16s

UW Madison erects 2996 flags to honor the dead of 9/11.
The number of people killed by terrorists is 2977. There were 19 hijackers. 2977+19=2996. Did UW Madison mean to include the hijackers in their 9/11 flag memorial? I hope this was a mistake.

https://twitter.com/VickiMcKenna/status/1171813736845385728

[Narciso79]

Doesnt appear to be:

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/274911/did-we-learn-anything-911-daniel-greenfield

[The Infamous Ignatz]

--We taught the computers the human wisdom, common sense, and critical thinking necessary to do one very tiny thing, i.e. beat another human at one game.--

Not really. We took a very limited, artificial scenario that can be broken down into a virtually unlimited number of choices to reach a very limited and simple objective and asked a machine that can process virtually unlimited choices vastly faster than we can and to do so and it did.
Real life is not limited or artificial and objectives are seldom limited and simple.
In those cases where it is, vastly quick and teachable data processing will be useful.
In any subjective or moral scenario we might at some point be able to program them to mimic that but it isn't real intelligence unless they teach it to themselves. I don't see that happening and if it does we better look out.

[anonamom]

It is not implausible that it is the delivery vehicle. Most of these drugs have been abused via ceramic or glass pipes for decades.
This lung damage has never been seen before. New to the radiology journals.
Something is different, which points to the delivery device.

And if they are being manufactured in China, God only knows what they are made from!
Melamine in baby formula, something awful in the drywall, toxic minerals in jewelry---

[Melinda]

Andrea Mitchell telling me that “Bolton’s not going to go quietly” has my hackles up for gaslighting:

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1171801594612113408?s=21

[Narciso79]

I hadnt considered that angle, they dont focus on any of the particulars.

[Narciso79]

Ah andrea looking to richard clarke electric boogaloo two.

[henry]

Nadler is busy:

The Wall Street Journal @WSJ
1m

The Judiciary Committee is expected to vote Thursday to set procedures for “its investigation to determine whether to recommend articles of impeachment”

[Melinda]

She's long overdue for another public pantsing.

I just need time to prepare my personal, travel size, eye bleach dose, in case I'm not in the safety of my own home.

[MissMarple2]

Back homme!

Got so much food for breakfast that I brought home half for supper. 2 huge sausage patties, 2 scrambled eggs, 1 biscuit (large) smothered in sausage gravy, 2 huge pancakes, 7.99

Not keto-friendly, but them's the breaks.

My sister (this is the retired Catholic schoolteacher) is disgusted with the news media. She said that if SHE remembers Trump being praised before he decided to run, she is sure that people who pay a lot more attention to celebrities and news stories do. She also would like to keep a lot of Muslims out of the country, even if that is considered islamaphobic, as she doesn't care.

Around here on the radio, they are playing audio of 9/11, and it is very haunting.

Good news: we went to the Salvation Army store and I got 2 Waterford crystal wine glasses for 3.00 each!

[MissMarple2]

Heard about this on the radio coming home:

MY NEW HERO!!!

Nicholas Haros Jr. Who lost his mom in the World Trade Center attack wore a "Some People Did Something" shirt as he spoke at todays #Remember911 memorial and LAMBASTED Ilhan Omar for her comments...

CC: @IlhanMN pic.twitter.com/FZAP6brrEd

— Deplorable RaZorback (@MediaJuggernaut) September 11, 2019

Photo at the link!

[Buckeye]

The question is whether Ilhan will have the brains to keep her piehole shut today?

[Another Bob]

I tire of the Alabama thing. So far as I’m concerned this is just another example of the bureaucracy wanting to embarrass Trump.

At no point did the administration alter a forecast. If someone did attempt that, pony up the facts. If not, NOAA need to shut up and do their jobs.

[Narciso79]

Why do you think i point the exclamatiom mark, im dissapointed maue has gotten on the bandwagon.

[James D.]

If not, NOAA need to shut up and do their jobs.

Unfortunately, a lot of the employees there probably consider embarrassing the President to BE their job.

And since they've gotten away with it (at our expense) for nearly three years now, I don't expect it to change anytime soon.

[Narciso79]

This is what i was teferring to:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1171808619488264192

Its like those stingrays that drove spock mad.

[henry]

new (3).

TM had an itchy trigger on Plame.

[Jack is Back!]

Gnu

[cathyf]

Switzerland is the extreme case of negative interest rates, in that foreigners convert money into 10,000 SFr bank notes which they then put in safety deposit boxes in Swiss banks rather than accounts at the Swiss banks. Which creates substantial deflationary pressures as real money gets taken out of circulation, and substantial inflationary risk because you don't know when all those boxes will get cracked open and the money taken out and spent. And the real problem is that Switzerland has no control over this -- it's all about all of the other countries out there and whether they are getting better or worse.

This is a substantial failure of Trump's bully pulpit... It looks to me like the world is in a state where foreigners want to park their money in dollars because they think that even at the worst Liz, Bernie, et al are less crazy than the rest of the world. In order to compete for those dollars, they have to sell Americans real stuff for more than they pay for the real stuff that they buy from Americans. When this happens we are getting lots of great stuff at fire sale prices, and when those dollars come back into the country they go in to corporate bonds and the stock market which gives capital for new jobs in the US. But if foreigners start stashing stacks of $1,000 bills in safe-deposit boxes that would be really really bad for us. And if the negative interest rate is more than the rental fee of the safe-deposit box that's what they'll do.

[Jane]

"The Judiciary Committee is expected to vote Thursday to set procedures for “its investigation to determine whether to recommend articles of impeachment”

That is the day Barr should release his report.

[jimmyk]

But if foreigners start stashing stacks of $1,000 bills in safe-deposit boxes that would be really really bad for us. And if the negative interest rate is more than the rental fee of the safe-deposit box that's what they'll do.

Melinda would probably know better than I, but my sense is that it's institutional money that's supporting the negative interest rates. It's easy for me to hold cash, so why would I ever accept a negative interest rate. But for entities that have $millions in cash, they seem to be willing to pay a bit to "store" it in the form of government securities with slightly negative interest rates. They could buy US government securities but then they face exchange rate risk.

[KevlarKid]

(Tx for the continued good wishes on the upcoming surgery!)

Doctor Savage made a couple of points re Bolton/Trump. As negotiations with N. Korea were underway Bolton communicated with Pyongangbang that the US would consider a Libya style de-nuke program. I don't think LardBoy liked the sound of that. Bolton is somewhat of a loose cannon.

This dissenting voice argument from the Hyena Media boggles the mind: Trump is supposed to listen to dissenting members of his admin because, well, Orange Man Bad.

Trump tweet i want to see to the Hyena Media: "Go Fuck Yourselves. I'm tired of doing it."

[KevlarKid]

Does Naddless actually believe that his little Judiciary Committee investigation will lube the HOR to make it more attractive to impeach and commit political hara kiri?

i hope Naddless gets butchered in 2020.

[KevlarKid]

How many contempt of Congress citations will Naddless print up in advance of investigative hearings?

More endless tawking about tawking. Take a shot Fat Jerry.

[KevlarKid]

Trump cancels the negotiation with the Holly Jolly Tolly Bon one day---and the next he keels one of their biggest swingin dicks.

Did Bolton agree or disagree with that move? LOL

[KevlarKid]

y'all been trackin the Planned Parenthood Baby Parts brokering trial?

PP's "business model" make the Paperhanger's SS look like a bunch of pikers.

[KevlarKid]

So i'm wondering: is the jury still out on whether Mumbles Mueller was working with POTUS to expose the Swamp?

is Rosita Rosenstein off the hook now?

LOL like y'all gibbachit. :P