Battle Lines

The impeachment polling is shaping up as more trench warfare in 50/50 nation.

I promise you, there are people out there thinking that (to snatch a few recent examples from the headlines) the idea of hosting the G-& at Trump's Doral resort was an optically dubious decision and the Ukraine arm-twisting is not how a President should exert his power. But they're also thinking that the Warren/Sanders intended fracking ban would be a disaster. 

We're on track for another sequel: Lesser of Two Evils II. 

Comments

[clarice]

SOCK puppetry.

[Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA]

I see that clarice is still in the Hawaii time zone? :) :)

It must be lovely

[clarice]

It is hard to keep up 6 time zones away.

[Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA]

So ... don't keep up!
Enjoy the life ...

[Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA]

Presumably the moon will rise in nj soon. Nytol

[The Infamous Ignatz]

--It is hard to keep up 6 time zones away.--

As Jed Clampett would say, pitiful, just pitiful.
Daddy used to keep up through every time zone on earth...while he was flying a massive jet airplane.

[clarice]

That was daddy. I never could figure out how he did that. I wasn't able to get to Lulu's in Waikiki this trip. Maybe in November when I return. He really loved that dive.

[jim nj]

Presumably the moon will rise in nj soon. Nytol

Posted by: Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA | October 24, 2019 at 01:27 AM
-------
Was that aimed at me? If so, LOL. Late start. I'm almost caught up. Lots of links to read today.

[jim nj]

I went back and re-read the lug nut court decision.

They admitted negligence and paid for that negligence. The lawyer got overly cute citing another state law that really didn't apply in this case.

The article writer also seemed biased on the second read. The article could have been better written if they had quoted someone who understood the narrow ruling.

When I worked in a gas station our standard practice was to remove the hubcap, place the lug nuts in the hubcap and then rotate the tires. Put the lug nuts back on finger-tight so you didn't inadvertently strip the threads using an impact wrench from the git-go. Then you would use an impact wrench set with the proper torque setting to finish the tightening.

While not properly tightening the lug nuts is really bad, over-tightening with an impact wrench that isn't dialed back is just as bad.

It's no fun getting an unexpected flat and finding out that standing on your lug wrench isn't enough to loosen the lug nuts.

Cracked two ribs that day when the lug nut finally freed up all of a sudden.

[jim nj]

Another old story about tires. Research indicated that most tire blow outs occurred on rear tires, so they recommended replacing rear tires first.

Well the problem with that was that many people couldn't afford a full set of tires for a car at one time.

So they'd buy two. Standard practice was to move the best two of the original tires to the rear and install the new ones on the front for more responsive steering.

Ergo, some of those rear tires didn't get replaced soon enough and blew out, but if those academic researchers had consulted with the lowest IQ grease monkey they could find they would have had a hallelujah moment.

[jim nj]

https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/is-the-us-economy-pulling-away-from-chinas/

Sorry, I forgot who asked about this.

Economic statistics are easier to find and more accurate in the US than they are in China so accurate comparisons are always iffy.

I'm going to use Wiki for some definitions:

"(GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period, often annually."

But it's actually a little more nuanced than that:

"The OECD defines GDP as "an aggregate measure of production equal to the sum of the gross values added of all resident and institutional units engaged in production and services (plus any taxes, and minus any subsidies, on products not included in the value of their outputs)."

One of the things they look at is inventories - have they grown or shrunk - you have to adjust GDP to account for those changes. In a market-based economy we assume that the manufacturers are adjusting supply to match demand and they may make anticipatory mistakes. Their timing was off, but they still expect to sell everything they produce.

Now the flip side of GDP is not what was produced, but what was bought. You can describe GDP from either side of that equation. Indeed, "An IMF publication states that, "GDP measures the monetary value of final goods and services—that are bought by the final user—produced in a country in a given period of time (say a quarter or a year)."

A centrally-controlled command economy doesn't function in this manner. It directs some portion of the capital, or subsidies, to manufacturers that may be inefficient or produce inferior products. Or sells them at a loss overseas subsidizing the buyer of those goods.

I won't go into a lot of what I think is misallocated capital other than the Chinese housing industry. If you are building housing that no one will ever buy it should not appear in GDP. And when you misallocate capital you waste wealth. Because money isn't being used as efficiently as possible.

Moving from GDP to wealth. The US figures on wealth are probably very good estimates based on the amount of data that the FED can look at. Wealth would be defined as what is owned by the US population less what it owes. I would be wary of any Chinese calculation of wealth.

In the US wealth would include ownership of businesses, either through directly owning a business or holding shares/debt of publicly owned companies. In China I would wonder about "wealth" represented by holdings of publicly owned companies. I would wonder if state-owned companies actually had negative net worth and would collapse without government money.

To understand what I am trying to get at you should read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter

He originated the idea of "creative destruction." Businesses fail only to be replaced by new businesses.

China hasn't let this process operate. Money is still being shoveled into failed enterprises. Money that could be better used elsewhere.

Long story short. China is wasting money. Wasting money does not create wealth.

[jim nj]

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2019/10/22/kurds-obama-backed-free-syrian-army-new-isis/

Good overview. The Obama-backed FSA is the one committing atrocities in northeast Syria.

These were the first Syrian rebels that Obama backed. They were so fierce that they retreated into Turkey and became a Turkish proxy force that was used in Turkey's invasion of Syria. They were the ones photographed shooting unarmed men.

[jim nj]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/jim-breslo-california-gavin-newsom-homeless-crisis

I didn't know that California voted against rent-control in 2018.

[jim nj]

https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/23/transing-children-is-child-abuse-and-should-be-punished/

The Texas kid, very hard hitting. And I agree. This is child abuse.

[jim nj]

https://hotair.com/archives/john-s-2/2019/10/23/seattles-rv-campers-dump-estimated-1-million-gallons-raw-sewage-waterways-per-year/

I clearly don't understand west coast thinking.

[jim nj]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/politics/california-doj-cap-and-trade-canada-suit/index.html

When did California become a sovereign nation capable of signing foreign treaties?

[jim nj]

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2019/10/23/lebanons_oligarchy_under_pressure_113108.html

Parallels to Hong Kong? Perhaps not, but they clearly are not interested in the status quo continuing. Like Hong Kong though there appear to be no political leaders of these protests.

This has only been going on for a week or so, will it die out or turn into something more coalesced?

Hezbollah seems weakened with its fighters dying in Syria and less money coming in from Iran, but this protest seems aimed at all the political players.

Like in Hong Kong the government touched this of, not with an extradition treaty, but with an unpopular tax on WhatsApp. Which, apparently, because of the high cost of traditional telcom, is the cheapest way to communicate. In another shadowing of Hong Kong they are using that app to coordinate their protests.

[jim nj]

https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/food-and-drink/bacon-surplus-america

America Has 40 Million Pounds of Unused Bacon in Reserve
It's our largest surplus in 48 years. So why are bacon prices increasing?

WTF? Sell that shit. I want bacon.

[jim nj]

https://amgreatness.com/2019/10/22/impeachment-will-fail/

Conrad Black

[Robin]

NTs represent all the worst bits of Republicanism/conservatism. Sanctimonious, preening, no fun, wannabe sophisticated, showy intellectual, snobbish buzzkills.

Heh, Porch. Tell us how you really feel.

[Robin]

For you podcast fans..... (Jim!)

http://revisionisthistory.com/episodes/41-the-queen-of-cuba

This is from Malcolm Gladwell's new book and it's about how a spy from Cuba operated for years in the upper echelons of our intelligence community. Frankly, if this is the best we've got, we might as well disband them all.

That said, Gladwell is focusing on how humans have evolved to TRUST as a default in this season, and that's very important when you consider what Trump and his happy warriors are going to ask the American people to believe and accept over the next 13 months.

Slowly and carefully building a narrative is the only way that they are going to take the majority of citizens needed to do the housecleaning from shock and disbelief to acceptance and action.

[Robin]

Also, as someone who has followed the story of the coup attempt, I still have trouble remembering all the names involved. Imagine how it's going to be introducing the entire story to a less plugged in American people.....

[jim nj]

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/10/23/chinas_own_great_delusion_114805.html

Interesting.

"...John Mearsheimer argues that many of America’s post–cold war foreign policy failures have ultimately been the result of a misguided strategy of a pursuit of “liberal hegemony”, an overly ambitious attempt to spread liberal democracy throughout the world."

"Yet as the [Chinese] Party now faces perhaps its most challenging period in decades, it appears as though Beijing is suffering from its own form of “delusion”. If, as Mearsheimer would put it, the US has overestimated the power of liberalism and underestimated that of realism and nationalism, China’s mistake has been to overestimate realism and their own narrative of nationalism while underestimating both liberalism and alternative forms of nationalism. This, somewhat ironically, is undermining their realistic interests as well."

Mind you I just opened my fourth beer, but did Trump recognize this and deliberately throw away the “liberal hegemony” card promoting new democracies to adopt the "Chinese nationalism" card to promote the "American nationalism" card as the appropriate response to China?

Having your own card "flipped" against you should be something that China should understand. At least belatedly.

"Moscow rules" shows up in multiple spy novels. It means the normal rules of civility no longer apply.

Trump has adopted "Beijing rules" meaning that appeasement is no longer the goal.

It's no longer a friendly game of "softball" we're going to play "hardball" with Beijing rules.

Bigger, faster bats. Fastball pitchers who throw "brush-back" pitches at chin level, fielders who regularly run double plays.

We've told the Chinese that this is no longer "A" level baseball. You are now facing a major league team.

We've promoted you to the "big leagues" and we will treat you as an equal, not a developing nation.

Seems an appropriate analogy for World Series season.

[Robin]

Is this true? From Conrad Black's AMGreat piece:

Like a big cat stalking a wildebeest, Trump changed parties seven times in 13 years, polling constantly, until he saw his target clearly and within range and he charged and seized it.

I didn't know he changed parties that often. Maybe for voting in primaries?

[jim nj]

https://defensemaven.io/warriormaven/air/pentagon-will-send-more-than-50-f-35s-to-europe-to-deter-russia-gG8yiUp4B0CizTcp82AWVA/

The interoperability with other nations F-35's will be huge.

[Robin]

JimNJ,

Our community has a ton of Chinese students at Cornell. I remember when I first heard of their families buying homes in the neighborhoods closest to the university, driving up housing prices. Local families would write pleading letters to homeowners to sell to local families so the houses wouldn't sit vacate or become unofficial rentals, but homeowners were always tempted by cash offers without contingencies.

We heard that it was to get money out of China, but I wondered what would happen if these families were "to visit" their students in the US and happen to stay. Would ICE go after them? Maybe now they would, but the big buy in really picked up steam in the Obama years.

[jim nj]

Robin,

I'm not sure of Trump's political affiliation changes.

But I can can understand it. I grew up in a Republican family, but first registered as a Democrat. I voted for the best Democrat in the primary, who always lost, and then voted for the Republican who made more sense.

After a sort while I realized that it was more important to vote in the Republican primary and changed my voter ID.

[Robin]

https://nypost.com/2019/10/22/rat-eating-monkeys-in-malaysia-stun-scientists/

I always thought monkeys were cute until they hovered over us while we ate meals at a resort in Thailand. The wait staff warned us not to ever feed them and swooped in to clear the table as soon as we rose from our meals. They seemed aggressive enough to yank the food right out of our hands if given a chance.

[Robin]

MM must be sleeping in this morning.

[Robin]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/friendship-over-party

I rather liked this column. I didn't know that Nancy Pelosi's daughter produced a documentary on W.

During the 2000 campaign, Nancy Pelosi’s daughter Alexandra produced a documentary about Bush called Journeys with George. She received unprecedented access to the then-candidate for president during the campaign. Most believed she would produce a hit piece. Instead, he charmed her, and she received a barrage of criticism for saying nice things about him in public.

[jim nj]

Robin, on Cornell housing. That doesn't surprise me.

Chinese "wealth" is being invested in the US and British Columbia real estate.

It's a simple decision. If your Chinese child is attending an American university where you are probably paying full price for tuition and you can afford that, then buying a home is better than paying four years of rent. And you get your wealth into a safer environment.

That's why the question of Chinese "wealth" is so hard to answer. Many Chinese would rather spend their wealth outside of China.

What is invested here can't be spent in China.

And in the Cornell area, and elsewhere, it's interesting that the Chinese are more liquid and more motivated than local home-buyers to be able to offer cash upfront, instead of a mortgage.

[Manuel Transmission]

Jim_NC, sometimes a microscopic amount of lint can be jammed into the bottom of the Lightning socket and keep the plug from making good contact. A small plastic tool like a toothpick works well to gently scrape out the debris.

[MissMarple2]

Slept in a little, Robin. I have been dealing with dogs, too.

That article from Conrad Black explains the picture of Trump with the Clintons. I didn't know he had switched that often, but I wonder if it was for information gathering. I know he hasn't changed his mind n major issues because I have watched interviews with him going all the way back to his 30's.

[Robin]

And in the Cornell area, and elsewhere, it's interesting that the Chinese are more liquid and more motivated than local home-buyers to be able to offer cash upfront, instead of a mortgage.

Actually, that's the least surprising part. This is upstate NY (high property taxes) in a highly educated community where everyone has student debt. We have a lot of trust fund millennials moving in (they have cash), and retirees from other parts of the state with pensions. The city is rapidly changing into a Brooklyn North kind of place.

[jim nj]

https://www.hughhewitt.com/energy-secretary-perry-on-quid-pro-quos-and-nuclear-power-fuel-cycle/

Nice article.

[MissMarple2]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/23/rev-franklin-graham-condemns-san-francisco-ban-travel-pro-life-states/

[jim nj]

https://www.hughhewitt.com/at-root/

John Schroeder

[MissMarple2]

Joel Fischer
@JFNYC1
·
10m
Who believed that this blue collar billionaire from 5th Ave will inspire us after so many weak years. He fixed mistakes into lessons, pressure into productivity and skills into strengths.

May God bless President @realDonaldTrump
Trump with health, wisdom and guidance
=================================
This is from the Brooklyn GOP chair.

[MissMarple2]

@SteveForbesCEO - Big Scandal Coming
"Impeachment is not gonna happen-The thing to watch for is what Attorney General Barr is going to be releasing.. A lot of bad things were done. This is a big scandal coming that is going to take this other stuff off the pages." pic.twitter.com/hEVcFnOXA5

— TrumpSoldier (@DaveNYviii) October 16, 2019

Video at the link.

[jim nj]

Robin, I've read that the "Finger Lakes" region of NY is undergoing a renaissance.

I've never been, but I understand it's really pretty.

[Robin]

That John Schroeder essay linked to the Babylon Bee....

https://babylonbee.com/news/politics-now-nations-fastest-growing-religion?fbclid=IwAR1KVQTga56tl99lqNTcqiMdT-YbqJw4vVVxwSYq_pkiRB8NS_-5HczCclk

A study released by Pew Research Center Thursday morning revealed a new fastest-growing religion in the country: politics.

Unlike many religions that only meet once or twice a week, adherents to the religion of politics worship every day, doing their devotionals in front of Fox News, CNN, or their carefully cultivated Twitter feeds. There is a major sectarian dispute among politics' followers, as to whether the one true god is a donkey or an elephant, but otherwise, their methods of practicing their faith are remarkably similar.

[jim nj]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-23/google-accused-of-creating-spy-tool-to-squelch-worker-dissent

[MissMarple2]

https://nypost.com/2019/10/24/39-found-dead-in-uk-truck-believed-to-be-chinese-nationals-cops/

I posted about this yesterday but the only information at the time was that the truck came from Bulgaria.

[jim nj]

https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/23/just-6-of-u-s-adults-on-twitter-account-for-73-of-political-tweets-and-they-disapprove-of-trump/

6% of US adults account for 73% of political tweets. If true, they must all be unemployed to spend that much time and effort.

[Robin]

Robin, I've read that the "Finger Lakes" region of NY is undergoing a renaissance.

I've never been, but I understand it's really pretty.

Posted by: jim nj | October 24, 2019 at 07:24 AM

Ithaca is Gorges is a selling point. This part of NY is amazingly beautiful. Ithaca has two large waterfalls inside the city limits and sits at the bottom of one of the largest of the Finger Lakes. We have six state parks within a 30 minute drive, providing either lake access, hiking trails, or both.

The soil is great for hops, wine grapes, and other grains, so craft distilleries, breweries, and wineries have popped up all over.

It's become a tourist Mecca, which is not so great for traffic in a small city surrounded by hills and run by people who prefer to spend money on social programs rather than infrastructure. Downtown Ithaca has been transformed with a new higher skyline, but the city brains have neglected to add sufficient parking and maintain the current structures. The topic of garage collapses rings a little too dear.

It's well worth visiting, if you get the chance.

[MissMarple2]

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019/10/23/joaquin-castro-gop-walk-in-absolutely-was-a-risk-to-national-security/

[MissMarple2]

Mark Knoller
@markknoller
·
28m
No apology or take back from @POTUS
on referring to Never Trumper Republicans as "human scum."
==================
This is the CBS Radio reporter. Since Trump never apologizes for a tweet, I assume that Knoller is trying to stir up trouble with the GOP.

I also think that the "human scum" statement referred to more than simply not going along with Trump's programs.

[Jack is Back!]

New & TM seems to have sprained a knee or ankle:)

[Another Bob]

Mostly for Ig...

The F2 driver Juan Carlos Correa who was badly injured in the crash at Spa that killed Antoine Hubert, stood for the first time since the accident. Been a hard road for him - first a lung injury that required induced coma and ECMO that delayed treatment for his fractures, then a ten-hour surgery to address immediate issues surrounding his broken legs and determine if his right leg could be saved, then a seventeen-hour surgery to try and save the leg.

Still has a long healing and rehab road ahead.

[Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA]

New. Already

[sbwaters]

JimSun, do you put the iPhone in your pocket, lightning connector down? Could be lint. Clean it with a small Q-Tip.

[Porchlight]

Kindles don’t get that kind of support. Trust me.

That's because you can buy a brand new Kindle for half the price of an iPhone socket repair. ;)

[jim nj]

Robin,

That's exactly what I've heard. So I can understand people flocking up there to create a NY Napa Valley.

I'm here in northern NJ, but I've traveled to Greene and Columbia counties to do genealogical research on my family. I really liked what I saw of the people and the land.

New York is a really great state for so many reasons, it's just run by the wrong people.

I've made minor tourist incursions into Albany and Schenectady counties for the same genealogical reasons.