Don't Stop Smiling (Unless You Start Laughing)

Was it only three days ago I noted that elections are won in November, not February? My goodness, there is a lot to smile about and strong hints that the Democratic clown car explosion will exceed expectations.

The good news: Gallup has spent the week strafing the Democrats. Let's see:

Trump has a record job approval rating;

In a bit of a non-coincidence, a record percentage of Americans believe their financial position is better than a year ago. That eclipses the Clinton boom years by a statistically insignificant 59% to 58%, but beating Clintons by a hair is what Trump does. Also in that report, a new record high think next year will be even better. The sun is shining today AND it will come out tomorrow!

Not done yet: Also setting a new record is the percentage of Americans who feel happy or satisified with their lives. And before you ask, yes, Republicans (especially well-off and married ones) are over-represented in the Sunshine Gang, so yes, time for a group chortle. (No Dr. Evil laughs, PLEASE.)

But there is bad news looming... for Democrats. Jonathan Chait, trapped in amber as a reminder of what moderate Democrats think, outlines the impending meltdown of the Democratic primary. His gist - Biden is too weak to win but too strong to die so Bernie is likely to swoop, Trump-like, to the nomination. Which will end disastrously.

Reading it all risks a schadenfreude overdose; this may be a safe amount:

So it is entirely possible that, following South Carolina, Sanders will have won three or all four of the contests. If nobody has emerged as a viable alternative by then, Michael Bloomberg’s campaign will be stepping in. It is extremely hard to estimate the probability of success of a candidate who has skipped the first four races. FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives Bloomberg less than a one percent chance of winning.

To be sure, if Bloomberg is the last Democrat standing against Sanders, he may well attract substantial support from Democratic elected officials and put up a strong fight. Still, he would face enormous opposition from the left. This is, after all, a billionaire who endorsed George W. Bush in 2004. And while the left has previously whipped itself into an angry frenzy against, successively, O’Rourke, Biden, Harris, and Buttigieg, the rage against Bloomberg would reach a new level.

At that point, the victory scenario would involve a long, bloody struggle all the way to the convention, with the Sanders movement claiming at every step of the way that the party is rigging the race against them, culminating in a convention where his enraged supporters will again try to shout down the proceedings. Unless one of the non-Bloombergs can somehow get off the mat and defeat Sanders, this is probably the best-case scenario for liberals at this point. It seems more probable that Sanders crushes the field and brings his historically unique suite of liabilities to the ticket.

Now obviously Team Sanders already believes the DNC is out to thwart them, again. Left unmentioned by Chait - Bloomberg is basically buying the DNC. He hosts "fundraisers" but won't take people's money - if they want to write a check he points them to the DNC or Swing Left. 

I am just guessing but I don't think that will leave Sanders and his supporters feeling the love.

Well. A week from now (or a tweet from now) this may all be ashes, but today? So far, so good!

Comments

[MissMarple2]

Read from bottom to top:

(3)
Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
·
2h
This was a great event with many new faces who showed up to dial for dollars. The finance team and @kimguilfoyle have been working hard to make this a huge success, and they exceeded expectations!
============================================
(2)
Maggie Haberman
@maggieNYT
· 2h
This was Guilfoyle first big event since she became national finance director. Sources in room say goal was $10 mill and they told crowd of more than 300 people making calls that they hit more than double. New limit for individual donor is over $500k.
============================================
(1)
Alex Isenstadt
@politicoalex
· 3h
Big fundraising day for Trump, I'm told

About 300 Trump allies - including Bossie, Gaetz, Lewandowski, Ronna McDaniel, Don Jr., Kimberly Guilfoyle - gathered at Mar-a-Lago for a donor "call day"

About $25 million raised for Trump Victory fundraising account

[Theo]

Another Bob —

You are probably right but I would like to think that facts matter. Of course they do not to the Democrats media allies but I think it would be good to give some ammunition to those fighting the spin.

[Another Bob]

Don Jr...

Allow me a moment to thank—and this may be a bit of a surprise—Adam Schiff. Were it not for his crack investigation skills, @realDonaldTrump might have had a tougher time unearthing who all needed to be fired. Thanks, Adam! 🤣 #FullOfSchiff

[henry]

@vlabslic

BOOM ! Where's the MSM on this !

IMF director steps down, paving way for Trump appointee

[Porchlight]

What is up my JOM dudes. How are you liking the Friday Night Massacre?

[hrtshpdbox]

The betting markets tend not to be all that good at predicting election outcomes.

I disagree, Theo, in my experience those putting money on a proposition get it better than pollsters or people talking around the water cooler.

it looks like the Senate holds.

At this point in time, bettors say that's a lock; picking up the House is the challenge.

[Another Bob]

Porch, it’s the AA or AAA team. Let’s see the major league massacre.

[henry]

Needs moar volume, porchlight

[Jane]

How about: Make America Even Greater!

[MissMarple2]

This afternoon's chopper presser! Includes both video and transcript.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/07/president-trump-impromptu-presser-departing-white-house-video-and-transcript-5/

[Theo]

Porch —

Some massacre. A couple people stay on the payroll and get lighter duties. A presidential appointee who has tons of money and only did the gig for the prestige goes back to his lavish lifestyle. This is not exactly heads on pikes.

[henry]

How’s the Dumb Debate tonight?

[lyle]

Committee Uber National Trends

Gold, Jerry. Gold. 😉

[lyle]

Night ain’t over, pal...

[Sammy Small]

A major league Friday Night Massacre would be for DJT to revoke all federal employee union membership. I wish he could do that. Then he do some real firing.

[Elliott]

I view Romney's impeachment decision, along with McCain's thumbs down a few years ago, as alluringly literary political moments. To the perennial theme of a rift between the party leadership and the electorate, they offer us psychodrama—an evidently personal feud between the standard bearers from 2008 and 2012 and their successor—that was entirely lacking for example in failure of immigration reform to overcome the hurdle of cloture during the George W. Bush administration. From that perspective, in spite of my agreement with Henry about the downsides of political dynasties, provided the current fiancée makes it to the altar, I can't imagine a more intriguing future general election matchup than Donald Trump, Jr. vs. Gavin Newsom.

[henry]

Elliott, only one gives satisfaction.

[clarice]

Elliott--wicked!

[Theo]

Elliott — fantasy!

[Another Bob]

Elliott, it would serve to reinforce we have a ruling class, that’s for sure.

And I don’t think it’d be a good look for Guilfoyle.

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Joe Biden got the first question of tonight’s debate in New Hampshire and he used his time to admit he’s going to lose:

.@JoeBiden gets the first question of the night and acknowledges that he’s not likely to win in New Hampshire.

“I took a hit in Iowa and I’ll probably take a hit here,” Biden says and stresses he views the first four states as a starting point.

— Molly Nagle (@MollyNagle3) February 8, 2020

[Theo]

Joe goes from above the fray front runner to gritty underdog in a week.

[henry]

He’ll be chum by next Tuesday

[Narciso]

The usual (redacted)

https://mobile.twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1225954146710323200

[Theo]

Henry —

Looks that way.

Maybe he will reinvent himself as an outsider. After all he is not currently in office.

[henry]

@WSJ

Joe Biden, criticizing Medicare for All and reprising a popular debate among Democrats, said it would explode the federal budget. "The idea that middle-class taxes aren't going to go up is just crazy," he said. on.wsj.com/2H2C4I7

Follow live analysis

[Extraneus]

How’s the Dumb Debate tonight?

I watched a bit of it. I'd recommend it. They're all cartoon characters, except for Klobushire. She's the one I'd be worried about if she had any traction.

[Porchlight]

I get that it's not much of a massacre. I was joking because #fridaynightmassacre, in all seriousness, is trending on Twitter.

[Jane]

Elliott, are you back in the USA - for more than a few minutes?

[Melinda]

Andrew Cuomo
@NYGovCuomo
NY will sue the federal gov't over @DHSgov's decision to ban NYers from the Trusted Traveler Program.

Pres. Trump has learned NOTHING from his impeachment.

Turning government agencies into political tools is an abuse of power. He did it with Ukraine and he's doing it again now.

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1225861831647989760

Best of luck with laws that TRUMP yours, sir.

[henry]

Melinda, Fredo the Elder has one play in his playbook: Hail Mary judge save me now.

[clarice]

Dan McLaughlin
✔
@baseballcrank
Steyer, with zero political experience, says Dems need a candidate with experience.

31
8:32 PM - Feb 7, 2020

[henry]

Clarice, Stanford MBA.

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

I don't trust DJTjr precisely because of Guilfoyle

[Catsmeat]

Are you all actually watching this thing? Props to you, roughly.

[henry]

I’m now watching MASH. The Zulu got repulsed at Rourke’s Drift.

[Theo]

So far it is more interesting than the previous ones. Comrade Sanders says we need to enthuse voters with big ideas. Mayor Pete says we have to have broader appeal. The others struggle to stay relevant.

[clarice]

STEPHEN GREEN • FEBRUARY 7@08:15 PM CHAT 0 COMMENTS
After the mess of Iowa, the chance to break away in New Hampshire, an opportunity to fatally wound Biden before he gets to his South Carolina firewall...
...and they're all talking unity.
This crowd couldn't generate excitement in a bordello if they had a case of Tres Agaves tequila and a few dozen little blue pills.

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Remember

You can't spell PELOSI without POS and LIE

[Jack is Back (Again)!]

Remember, it was Zippy’s dissing of Trump at the WHCA dinner that put the POTUS spark in his eye and it was the reflection of McCain and Romney’s inability dim performance against Zippy that gave us Trump to MAGA.

[MissMarple2]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/07/biden-urges-debate-audience-to-give-alexander-vindman-standing-ovation/

Video of this despicable event embedded in the story.

[MissMarple2]

I would like to add that Biden is going to be toast if the Vindman's turn out to be actual spies.

[Theo]

MM —

And the audience at the Democratic Debate cheered Willard Romney. A sentence that I never expected to read before this week.

[henry]

@CNBC

Coronavirus live updates: China says death toll hits 722 as confirmed cases cross 34,000

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

Catsmeat: "Are you all actually watching this thing?"

It may be useful for some future Trivia contest ... but I don't think any of these candidates will be President...

[Theo]

Jim,Sunnyvale —

I have my doubts that any of them will ever be the nominee.......

[MissMarple2]

https://twitter.com/COsweda/status/1225935571773579264

Carlos Osweda has a few choice words for Nancy Pelosi in this thread.

There is also an interesting photo of her with Bush 43 and a video of someone flying an anti-Pelosi banner over San Francisco.

[MissMarple2]

Unhinged: 2020 Democrat presidential candidate Tom Steyer compares impeachment to prosecuting Nazi war criminals.#DemDebate

pic.twitter.com/I7d7vXV5KA

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) February 8, 2020

Video at the link.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--I have my doubts that any of them will ever be the nominee.......--

Heh.

[Jack is Back (Again)!]

You can tell when the game is up when your opposition begins to invoke Hitler, the Nazis and members of a coup as heroes.

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

"After the mess of Iowa ... they're all talking unity ... This crowd couldn't generate excitement ..."

That's their strength, no?
They're not generating excitement because they prefer operating in the dark and quiet. If unexamined, they can get away with theft, corruption, even murder.

[henry]

Tommy, good grief! Have a beer and chill. You aren’t your dad, and Trump ain’t a NAZI war criminal. Enough with the Clinton asswipes you hired as staffers. Reality my teammate. They are dragging you off the cliff.

[jim nj]

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/CCA3EBC0-49CB-11EA-BE18-993E793EE3B3

The U.S. created 514,000 fewer jobs in 2018-19 than originally reported — here’s what that means

Not much, but expect the revision to become politicized.

[MissMarple2]

Debate comments from Twitter:

Ian Miles Cheong
@stillgray

They just gave "The Rat" Pete 3 whole minutes to go on a monologue. And now they're asking him a second question.

To be fair, Pete is the most well spoken person on the platform. He sells the Democratic elite in the way they like the best.
========================================
Andrew Follett
@AndrewCFollett
·
38m

Warren now fully under the bus.
==========================================
Porg Gamer
@catfanatic3000
·
27m

Pete acts too holier than thou for me. I also don't think selling himself as more Christian than traditional Christians plays well.
===========================================
Barry Dogg
🐶
@thebarrydogg

2008 & 2012: Black Card

2016: Woman Card

2020: Gay Card

[Elliott]

Yes, Jane, I am.

The following may or may not be continued.

The Colonel: I got a posting in D.C.
the vaunted interagency
which calls the shots on foreign shores

The Brother: And answers not dictators nor to right-wing boors
The Press: And answers not dictators nor to right-wing boors

The Colonel: When Schiff sent his request
I donned full service dress
And I testified behind closed doors

The Brother: And he had to answer Nunes and the right-wing boors
The Press: And he had to answer Nunes and the right-wing boors

The Colonel: But when they wished to know
who did the whistle blow
We cite the preclusion from revealing more

The Brother: Oh, you should have seen the faces of the right-wing boors

All: Oh, you should have seen the faces of the right-wing boors
You should have seen their faces,
How we put them in their places,
Right-wing boors!

[MissMarple2]

KB
@KingBroly
·
8m
You notice how Bernie Bros. can see through Buttigieg's bullshit and the media are attacking them for it?

Come on, Bernie Bros. Take the next step. Join MAGA. You can do it. I know you're scared, but you will love it.

[Marlene]

I'm watching the debate. If Biden says"here's the deal"one more time,I'll change the channel. These people aren't interested in anything but pandering to their base. Biden sounds desperate. Bernie sounds like Bernie. The moderators are giving Mayor Pete lots of time to talk.

[Narciso]

Shes an obama hack and mercury tool

https://ballotpedia.org/Heather_Hargreaves

[Narciso]

This one worked for red squaw

https://ballotpedia.org/Doug_Rubin

[MissMarple2]

Carpe Donktum
🔹
@CarpeDonktum
·
39s
Tom Steyer to a stage full of white people: Why haven't we pandered to those black and brown people yet? Get it together people.
===========================================
Chris Stigall
@ChrisStigall
·
1m
Tom Steyer’s job tonight is to apparently give Democrats a screaming halftime locker room speech about how they’re all getting their asses kicked but there’s still a second half. #DemDebate

[Narciso]

We're talking real winners here:

https://ballotpedia.org/Jerry_Govan_Jr.

[Marlene]

Tom Steyer is for reparations. *eyeroll*

[MissMarple2]

Tim Young
@TimRunsHisMouth
·
5m
The #YangGang are the Democrats America needs: Sane, civil people who will argue policy over beers... Then at the end of the night, shake hands, split the bill, and still be friends with you.

I tip my cap to you all.

The way the world once was. #DemDebate

Cc: @AndrewYang
===================================
Another group of Democrats that Trump should reach out to.

[Narciso]

Not that hes going anywhere:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/tom-steyer-apologizes-for-campaign-aide-who-stole-kamala-harriss-voter-data%3f_amp=true

[henry]

Yeah. Tommy thinks he is exempt from reparations because the former oil trader in the mirror got woke. Only leftist freshmen are that stupid.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--2008 & 2012: Black Card

2016: Woman Card

2020: Gay Card--

Concur. Bernie's explicit socialism, while foundational to progs, is also recognized as an electoral Burmese tiger trap for Dems.
On top of that, Bernie's old school socialism, while foundational, has been eclipsed by the intersectional, diversity alphabet people.
And so, just as their first black candidate was a clean, articulate, non threatening mulatto, their first queer candidate is going to be a Navy veteran Potsy Webber with chipmunk cheeks and not a spiked dog collar to be seen.
I can see Trump having some problems with the sanctimonious, creepy little geek at first but eventually burying him, if the economy stays strong. I could also see Trump hitting some historic black vote numbers if the economy stays strong and the Dems nominate a lily white Butt Pirate. Watching a desperate Petey with his pants ridin low and his Snoop shades on try to busta rhyme to pander could be pretty epic.

[Theo]

Nice imagery Ignatz

[Narciso]

Yes like corbyn hes two generations behind the curve thats why london is headed by a takfiri lawyer, who their mittens roru stewarts wants to keep in offfice.

[Marlene]

How come Bernie never talks about living in a dirt floor maple sugar shack with a bunch of hippies? Isn't that an inspiring story,like Abe Lincoln living in a log cabin? :)

[MissMarple2]

Ignatz,

Mayor Pete has some black former constituents who are putting videos on Twitter which talk about what a terrible mayor he was.

In addition, he has a habit of insulting Trump voters, which is pretty off-putting.

[Narciso]

Well the hippies kicked him out, the swp had no objection to him as mayor of burlington

[MissMarple2]

Bernie:

"We have a racist society from top to bottom..." pic.twitter.com/2M6FX9UWyy

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) February 8, 2020

Video at link. (Rolling eyes may be inserted here.)

[rich]

evening all. did my shift in the salt mine today.

at least i could make myself a man meal ... a tbone, mash potatoes, and steamed broccoli.

and beer.

and deftones.

you're welcome.

[Narciso]

Fascinating some of the twists

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theblaze.com/news/2020/02/07/glenn-beck-unveils-money-laundering-scheme-linked-to-hunter-biden-and-burisma/amp

[rich]

Posted by: MissMarple2 | February 07, 2020 at 10:06 PM

pretty sure that is what voters want to hear.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I bet Bernie stinks...and I don't mean metaphorically.

[Porchlight]

Hi Elliott! Nice work. :)

[Theo]

Rich —

Don’t underestimate white guilt among Dem voters. It can border on masochism.

[MissMarple2]

pic.twitter.com/gsZyUFlTPJ

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 8, 2020

Video at the link, 38 seconds.
From Dan Scavino, I believe.

[Marlene]

Gawd,Biden was the poorest man in Congress. *sob*

[Narciso]

Well those who know:

https://freebeacon.com/issues/ex-con-facing-two-new-felony-charges-helped-craft-sanderss-criminal-justice-plan/

[Theo]

Marlene —

Not if you count the money that his relatives made from his connections n

[rich]

Posted by: Theo | February 07, 2020 at 10:17 PM

i watched loudoun county go from republican bulwark to dem stronghold in less than 8 years ... i've mentioned over-and-over 'the blueprint'.

they did it in virginia (and colorado-the subject of 'the blueprint'), they'll do it to you (but i guess in your case it doesn't matter being in ca) ... have a meet up with Captain Hate while you're at it.

LET'S DRINK BEER!!!

[MissMarple2]

Kylee Zempel
@kyleezempel
·
1h
Just so we're all on the same page:

Buttigieg WOULD support killing third-trimester disabled babies.

Buttigieg WOULD NOT support killing a gross terrorist.

Got it.

[Narciso]

When was this 1973, when he relied on a teamater picket, if you believe shannom to get him over the top

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

This election will be the electric kool-aid acid test of media power.
If the economy is strong and Trump loses anyway, it will be almost completely a media caused phenomenon.
I consider it unlikely that will occur but just imagine Trump's numbers had he Barry's hagiographic butt sniffers.
The media are truly the enemy of the people in that they have abdicated their responsibility as a counterweight to the state and are now the fiercest advocates of an unbridled, one-party autocracy, even while bleating dishonestly about unconstitutional dictator Trump.
And Theo doesn't think these traitors need shooting.

[MissMarple2]

Steyer: “We have not said one word tonight about race... We have the most diverse party...”

*Camera pans out to mostly White Debate Stage*

pic.twitter.com/llxcBQh0RL

— Benny (@bennyjohnson) February 8, 2020

Video at link.

[henry]

Rich, beer is good. ;)

[MissMarple2]

DR. ETIQUETTE
🤦‍♂️
Text TRUMP to 88022
@DrEtiquette
·
28m
Now the democrat candidates are fighting wether or not black Americans can fend for themselves under the economic oppression the democrats have created.
🤦‍♂️
#BLEXIT

[Narciso]

Now fujimori figured out the peruvian congress was mostly useless

https://m.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Saudi-military-official-what-if-Arabs-states-recognized-Israel-in-1948-611681?fbclid=IwAR1FnGg7phwHzfE4iHyUCr1GEl1unZuBbZQ_oQ0FafAO_Mxq_T-ZsRlIkjs

[rich]

Posted by: MissMarple2 | February 07, 2020 at 10:29 PM

the fbicia are going to have to fire up the racist engine ... get david dukes in here.

they will.

[Theo]

Ignatz —

No shooting.

The media only has the power that the people give to them. The level of trust in the media is at an historic low. Yes, it is annoying the wayCNN and others slant things, but they are largely catering to an audience that wants to hear what they are saying.

[Marlene]

The audience was likely 99% white also. I saw some outside pictures of the St. Anselm campus,it looked beautiful after today's snow. (speaking of white)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

The big question is what do Bernie bots do?
I would be livid already if I were them. It seems Bernie almost certainly won Ioway and yet Mayor Peter-eater comes out with the big-mo.
As CH mentioned, mebbee they'll go Wild in the Streets.

[rich]

Posted by: henry | February 07, 2020 at 10:31 PM

... and on the eighth, ninth, and tenth day ...

[MissMarple2]

Peter J. Hasson
@peterjhasson
·
43m
Elizabeth Warren says Democrats have consistently only paid attention to black voters during elections while failing to actually follow through on their promises
===========================================
Kimberley Strassel
@KimStrassel
·
41m
Warren is right: "year after year after year, Democrats go to African Americans and say we care about these issues." But what does D leadership do for black communities? Issue isn't racism; issue is terrible policies that lead to unemployment, crime, bad education..
============================================
domd
@blackdog758
Replying to
@KimStrassel
🤔🤔
she just had 8 black Campaign workers quit because of a toxic work environment on her team.. this debate is a bigger disaster than the Iowa caucus...

[D]

Elliott, so great to hear from you!

[jim nj]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/boeings-starliner-problems-may-be-worse-than-we-thought/

Software problems.

[MissMarple2]

Alert to those in the Arizona area:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events/phoenix-az-feb-19-2020

[Theo]

The dust up about women of color leaving Warren’s campaign might illustrate the problem of diversity for diversity’s sake. Reading the complaints of these women one cannot rule out the possibility that they were hired to check a box rather than for their skills and that they are very miffed that they were not given meaningful roles that their experience and talents did not indicate they were qualified to handle. Maybe not. Maybe the Warren campaign is just prejudiced against black women.

But one of the many flaws of socialism is the assumption that everyone is interchangeable with everyone else and that talent is distributed equally among everyone.