Was it only three days ago I noted that elections are won in November, not February? My goodness, there is a lot to smile about and strong hints that the Democratic clown car explosion will exceed expectations.
The good news: Gallup has spent the week strafing the Democrats. Let's see:
Trump has a record job approval rating;
In a bit of a non-coincidence, a record percentage of Americans believe their financial position is better than a year ago. That eclipses the Clinton boom years by a statistically insignificant 59% to 58%, but beating Clintons by a hair is what Trump does. Also in that report, a new record high think next year will be even better. The sun is shining today AND it will come out tomorrow!
Not done yet: Also setting a new record is the percentage of Americans who feel happy or satisified with their lives. And before you ask, yes, Republicans (especially well-off and married ones) are over-represented in the Sunshine Gang, so yes, time for a group chortle. (No Dr. Evil laughs, PLEASE.)
But there is bad news looming... for Democrats. Jonathan Chait, trapped in amber as a reminder of what moderate Democrats think, outlines the impending meltdown of the Democratic primary. His gist - Biden is too weak to win but too strong to die so Bernie is likely to swoop, Trump-like, to the nomination. Which will end disastrously.
Reading it all risks a schadenfreude overdose; this may be a safe amount:
So it is entirely possible that, following South Carolina, Sanders will have won three or all four of the contests. If nobody has emerged as a viable alternative by then, Michael Bloomberg’s campaign will be stepping in. It is extremely hard to estimate the probability of success of a candidate who has skipped the first four races. FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives Bloomberg less than a one percent chance of winning.
To be sure, if Bloomberg is the last Democrat standing against Sanders, he may well attract substantial support from Democratic elected officials and put up a strong fight. Still, he would face enormous opposition from the left. This is, after all, a billionaire who endorsed George W. Bush in 2004. And while the left has previously whipped itself into an angry frenzy against, successively, O’Rourke, Biden, Harris, and Buttigieg, the rage against Bloomberg would reach a new level.
At that point, the victory scenario would involve a long, bloody struggle all the way to the convention, with the Sanders movement claiming at every step of the way that the party is rigging the race against them, culminating in a convention where his enraged supporters will again try to shout down the proceedings. Unless one of the non-Bloombergs can somehow get off the mat and defeat Sanders, this is probably the best-case scenario for liberals at this point. It seems more probable that Sanders crushes the field and brings his historically unique suite of liabilities to the ticket.
Now obviously Team Sanders already believes the DNC is out to thwart them, again. Left unmentioned by Chait - Bloomberg is basically buying the DNC. He hosts "fundraisers" but won't take people's money - if they want to write a check he points them to the DNC or Swing Left.
I am just guessing but I don't think that will leave Sanders and his supporters feeling the love.
Well. A week from now (or a tweet from now) this may all be ashes, but today? So far, so good!
Recent Comments