Meanwhile, Back In Iowa...

More results have trickled in. At last look, 538 had 71% of the votes. Their prediction jibes with that of the NY Times Upshot: Sanders will probably have more total votes (both first and second round) and Buttigieg will probably get more delegates. Why? Sort of an Electoral Pre-School effect:

So far, Sen. An urban areas and college towns, which punch a bit below their weight in terms of delegates.

I wouldn't spend much more time delving into the details of the Iowa Way - After what one wag described as an explosive shower of radioactive clowns I doubt these caucuses will be first in the nation again.

Comments

[James D.]

Totally, CH.

He is SUCH an a-hole, and has been for as long as I can remember.

I think my favorite Pete Rose-ism was his answer in an interview a few years back about whether he was still gambling or not. He said that he wasn't "really" gambling anymore, he only went to the racetrack 3 or 4 times a week.

[D]

They wore white as a suffragette sympathy one reporter said.

[JM Hanes]

In my family we were taught never to make derogatory remarks about people's appearance, or in my father's case, not to remark on other people's appearance period. It still makes me uncomfortable to hear people doing that it. It seems embarrassing, although for some reason I'm OK with mini-Mike. I might as well also admit that it I have trouble understanding why so many men seem to call women whose politics they dislike "whores," which is a particularly uncomfortable thing to hear someone called.

I am not taking anyone to task, but since the subject has come up, I thought I might as well share my own thoughts, too.

[Thomas Collins]

What's all this fuss about tantrums of Speaker Nan, Iowa apps, SOTU, white tops, beer viruses and demolition derby parades? Where's the thread or subthread about the REAL important news today? https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mookie-betts-traded-to-dodgers-winners-and-losers-of-blockbuster-as-red-sox-ship-out-their-superstar/

[Melinda]

Nahncee has given Nads the green light to subpoena Bolton.

[MissMarple2]

Captain Hate,

I know nothing about that entire Pete Rose saga; I posted it because I thought it was newsworthy.

Anytime you see me post something about sports, but particularly baseball, you can assume I have no opinion.

Especially baseball. We never had a major league team here, so I don't know a darn thing.

[Melinda]

MR-

As you know, what they say, and what DO can be two entirely different things. You still can't easily read scrolling white type from a teleprompter if there's a white background.

And it was coincidentally intentional.

[Thomas Collins]

I want a subpoena for John "Harry Frazee" Henry, Melinda.

[henry]

Evan Sayet @EvanSayet
13m

Biden says he took a "gut punch" in Iowa. Bloomberg took the same punch but it went over his head.

[Captain Hate]

James,

My favorite Pete story is when he was chasing DiMaggio's record and complaining about pitchers throwing too many breaking balls, like trying to get him out isn't their job. I'd have intentionally walked him at every at bat in the next game.

[James D.]

TC, I guess John Henry is just going back to standard operating procedure from his days owning the Marlins.

[Captain Hate]

No need to apologize, Miss Marple.

[James D.]

CH, I remember that, too.

That's also why I think that record will never be broken.

[Theo]

JMH —

I understand your point about Trump expanding the base, but I don’t see very much of that. What I see is a great deal of firing up of the base. His approval/disapproval ratings continue to trade in a very narrow range. Indeed, what is most remarkable is how low his approval rating is despite the incredibly strong economy and historic low unemployment. Those numbers usually drive presidential approval much more than they do now.

I thought the speech was a (very good) campaign speech. It electrified his supporters and visibly agitated his opponents. In the past, the SOTU was much more of a sedate ritual with a lot of platitudes and respectful applause with maybe a few phrases that caused obvious divisions. This was all like that.

Trump is going to be Trump. He won the last time and he is a better speech maker than he was four years ago. The opposition is more divided and at least some people who don’t care for his style might appreciate that under his watch the country is prosperous and at peace. But I don’t see him “reaching across the aisle” to win over Democrats. I don’t think Reagan did much of that either.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Well, I guess Doug Jones figures he isn't getting reelected anyway so better keep his after-Senate prog options open?

[Captain Hate]

James,

It's such an outsized statistical anomaly that it might be an unbreakable record. Paul Molitar gave it a shot and still fell far short.

[Dave (in MA)]

JM Hanes | February 05, 2020 at 01:44 PM
I think I'd reserved that appellation to Al Gwhore, which I stole from local (former) radio talker Jay Severin, who has also recently announced he's suffering from stage 4 cancer.

[Melinda]

That's very concerning.

[Narciso]

You could ask richard jewell about doug jones judgement o wait

[Dave (in MA)]

Jay Severin@GiantPodPundit
· 16h
I am so happy to live to see this moment for my good friend and a hero to so many of us: RUSH.

[Marlene]

Mitt speaking on the Senate floor.

[henry]

Great, make the Olympics, be forced to wear garbage.

[henry]

CNBC @CNBC
16s

Nike is dressing 2020 Olympic athletes in uniforms made of recycled shoe parts

[John S]

"In the past, the SOTU was much more of a sedate ritual with a lot of platitudes and respectful applause with maybe a few phrases that caused obvious divisions." --Theo

Theo, I totally disagree. My experience of SOTU's in the past is presidents putting out big plans, like privitizing Social Security, that never happen. Trump's speech was demonstrating how successful his policies have been and saying he would continue his winning ways.

[Theo]

Ig —

Re Jones, I think you are absolutely right. Same reason Heitkamp voted against Kavanaugh. She was going to lose her election anyway so it made sense to keep her potential future employers happy. While Alabama is overwhelming against removing Trump, a Jones vote to acquit would not save him in November. The voters there will choose a real Republican over a Democrat who casts an occasional vote with the President.

[James D.]

I understand your point about Trump expanding the base, but I don’t see very much of that.

Paid family leave? Criminal justice reform that will strongly benefit African American communities? You don't think those are two big items that are reaching well outside the traditional GOP base?

[Marlene]

He will vote to convict. *this is my shocked face*

[clarice]

https://nypost.com/2020/02/05/dnc-taking-over-accounting-results-in-iowa-after-botched-caucus-report/

[Narciso]

But its a bidding war you camt win, because the argument

[Narciso]

Will be over quality cost et al.

[John S]

Mitt is incredible. His speech is totally cribbed from Adam Schiff.

[Buckeye]

Eff Mutt

[Theo]

JamesD -

I was not very happy with the family leave business. But yes, you have a point. There were some small political concessions towards the progs. But I think overall the speech was the most overtly campaign style in memory. He sure fired up the base and appears to have gotten no credit among the prog commentariat for family leave or criminal justice reform.

[James D.]

CH, totally agree.

Especially because any opposing manager can decide that "today's the day the streak ends." All you have to do is get the guy out once, and pitch around him every other at-bat.

(I think, although I'm not sure where I read it, that if you don't have an official at bat, the streak doesn't technically end, so just walking the guy every at-bat wouldn't break it, you have to get him out at least once)

[Melinda]

Quoth the Raven
@QTRResearch
WISCONSIN DEPT. OF HEALTH CONFIRMS FIRST CASE OF CORONAVIRUS IN THE STATE - CNBC

https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/status/1225134495956905985

[Narciso]

Cofer probably faxed it with a dead fish attached.

[John S]

I just cannot believe what a self-important turd Romney is. Clearly got his closing remarks from Lincoln

[rse]

Wife of jailed banker loses appeal to keep her £15m Knightsbridge home after refusing to abide by new 'McMafia' laws

Zamira Hajiyeva was attempting to overturn an Unexplained Wealth Order against the property in central London

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/05/bankers-wife-spent-millions-harrods-learn-can-keep-11m-knightsbridge/

Wouldn't we all love to serve an Unexplained Wealth Order against the Bidens, Pelosi's son, most of the US Senate in general, etc.?

[Theo]

JohnS -

I agree with you that SOTU speeches often have big plans that never happen. But they even more often have platitudes that everyone can at least politely applaud. Much less of the former last night.

[jimmyk]

CH, quiet about that, on the internet I'm 5'11".

Seriously, we all know the height stuff is silly, but Bloomie is sensitive about it, so it's good fun at his expense.

[Buckeye]

Clarice

What legal rights do the citizens of Iowa have?

I suspect the DNC, or the RNC for that matter, will do whatever they can get away with, but what does the law say?

[Narciso]

Ah her husband, is the head of the azeri bank. Attached link, maybe soc gen link

[henry]

ah, Madison.

https://fox6now.com/2020/02/05/dhs-officials-confirm-1st-case-of-coronavirus-in-wisconsin/

[rse]

Kiwi-

I am in Ga, as is the jokester Stephanie, as well as MOMto2 among regular posters these days. I am inside perimeter and the others are outside--one to the north and the other to the south.

[Narciso]

So gen the outfit tied to fenech.

[Melinda]

narc-

It's a purse seine scenario.

[BeenThereDoneThat]

Dear God. Chris Wallace on Fox interviewing Romney. Romney will vote to CONVICT.

[Narciso]

Why are we surprised that the mitt returns to his vomit,

[Theo]

Willard wins the Strange New Respect Award of the day.

But what about the binders full of women or the dog in the crate or giving workers cancer before putting them out of work? All forgiven I suspect.

[henry]

Romney is all about the global grift.

[Narciso]

So splunge

https://mobile.twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1225134913512448001

[Theo]

Funny how things work out. I was very disappointed when Willard lost in 2012. But if he had won, he would be very likely finishing his second term now. And the 2020 election would be shaping up as Paul Ryan versus Hillary Rodham with Rodham likely to win.

[Rocco]

Romney claiming to be a man of deep faith is BS! The hatred he's shown our president contradicts his claim that he's a man of God. He's a snake!

[MissMarple2]

Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
·
5m
Okay, enough.

Now Mitt Romney says "I don't dislike the president, we get along, I've known him for years."

That's not what he said at the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City on March 3, 2015.

Lol. What a load of bullshit.

==========================================
I hope he is hounded for every day of the rest of his miserable life.

[Porchlight]

I understand your point about Trump expanding the base, but I don’t see very much of that.

I do. On The_Donald I see a ton of people, mostly men but not all, mostly young but not all, a lot of minorities, express hardcore support for Trump.

These folks were either Dems or apolitical previously. In some cases non-Trump-supporting conservatives. A large number of Bernie supporters who flipped either prior to November 2016 or since.

[Narciso]

I referenced menelius from corolianus, you want to know his fate

[sbwaters]

Sitting in CLT airport waiting for next leg to SYR.

They need to bring back phone booths.

[Buckeye]

Henry

Just heard on the news that OSU has issued a “recommendation” that students or staff who have recently returned from China should self-isolate.

Surprised it took them this long. Probably a few thousand Chinese on campus, and certainly some returning from their New Year.

[Theo]

Porch —

You might be right but putting aside anecdotes and looking at the polls I see very little movement in Trump’s approval rating over the years. Yes, he hit a new high of 49% in Gallup but a) it’s still 49% and b) it’s just one poll. When you look at the various averages, his approval rating is essentially steady.

[Captain Hate]

@MZHemingway

At lunch, we had a discussion about whether Romney would convict. We all agreed he loathed Trump enough and despised the fact he was president enough to do so but we weren't sure he would follow through on that hatred. Kudos to @heminator for predicting accurately.

[Melinda]

Still concerning.

[MissMarple2]

The polls I believe are the ones that stand in line for hours in freezing weather to get into rallies.

Romney is a weasel who is trying to 1. Protect his son from prosecution and 2. Get payback for his humiliation at not getting Secretary of State.

He's a phony, a pharisee, and I am sorry I ever voted for him. Utah should recall him.

[Melinda]

Mittens ran in 2012 to quit before the tape.

Change my mind.

[Narciso]

His vizier miss marple and this other counselor schrage

https://mobile.twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1224303412705157120

[Narciso]

So the hit on rimi was a pitchback for pensacola.

[Theo]

Melinda -

If you say so. I think of it as expressing my views.

Firing up the base is not a bad re election strategy in this day and age, particularly against a weak opposition candidate and/or a divided opposition party . To me, that seems to be Trump’s clear strategy n

[Melinda]

@TheBrandonMorse

Here's Pelosi testing to see if she could rip the speech before the speech even started. She was planning to do it from the start.

https://twitter.com/thebrandonmorse/status/1225117146268798976?s=21

[anonamom]

Jackie Speier, who walked out of the SOTU last night, brought long time Democratic donor Epstein's accuser as her guest.
FIFY Mel.

[GUS]

I was in Paul Molitor's house in Mequon Wi, in about 1989. He actually had bottle of champagne with the Brewers logo, and the number 39 on the label. I was supervising him moving into a new home he had just built. He told me he didn't care about anything in the home, except, he took me into the basement and in his furnace room, he had a box of bats. "If you lose these, I'll kill you". He said.

[Buckeye]

Big 10 news.

Mark Dantonio retired today.

[Theo]

Melinda —

Why do you think Willard did not want to win in 2012? I am not saying you are wrong but I can’t change your mind until I understand your thinking on this.

[Melinda]

Thanks, Amom!

But just for clarity’s sake, you’re referring to Epstein’s donation history. Lest I step in it again running on “Full” Assume

[clarice]

Buckeye, I must have skipped class in law school the day they studied whether citizens of a state can sue for the mashups in primary elections caused by the very people they selected to run their caucuses.

[henry]

clarice, it was the same day they discussed Hawaiian Judge super powers.

[Captain Hate]

The wingman has a new hero

@EricHolder
History will be kind to Mitt Romney in its assessment of his decision to be true to his oath. Displays of courage are always viewed in that manner.

[Jane]

Romney’s an ass. He’s got pals working in Ukraine.

I’m with you JMH. For one thing it reminds me of democrats behavior.

[Narciso]

Arent we way past the point of 'self isolation' that was 400 corpes ago

[Captain Hate]

Paul Molitar was a player I always respected, even when he was destroying whatever team I was rooting for. He was like a modern day Stan Musial.

[Porchlight]

Theo, sure it's anecdotal, but we've had disagreements over polls in the past, as you may remember. :)

[Narciso]

Our security bureauceacy hasnt moved past ft. Hood a decade ago. That was the white wash webster signed on to.

[Porchlight]

Romney is just setting up his second run in 2024. Sadly he won't be Trump's opponent but I'm sure Pence will make short work of him.

[GUS]

We're in a fucked up world, where the FULL COMMIE can call a Supreme Court justice a GANG RAPIST, but calling Mini Mike Bloomberg "Half pint" is mean.

[GUS]

Capn, he was nearly 6ft tall, he could fly on the bases. He hit or average and plenty of power, and he overcame a bunch of injuries. Fairly nice guy, not overly friendly, but not a jag either.

[GUS]

Porch, Romney just put a fork in his own political future. He'd have to run as a Democrat.
Wayne Osmond isn't getting any younger either.

[clarice]

Henry, I guess that's the problem when deciding to sleep in when the Madison weather forecast was 15 below--at noon.

[jimmyk]

Mitt will be 77 in 2024. Granted that's younger than Biden and Sanders are today, but put that together with this disgusting vote and he's toast. I don't think he realizes that Trump is now hugely popular in the Republican party. The voters won't forget.

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

Theo: "understand your point about Trump expanding the base, but I don’t see very much of that"

Sure, it's only anecdotal but I think DJT is working diligently to enlarge the base by specifically trying to win over Black Americans, esp men.

There are many anecdotal data points. A poll here or there, a change in policy, announcements and awards, who is retweeted, podcast remarks by Candace Owens or Mike Nificent, who is being invited to the White House. I wouldn't pretend to be able to comment on effectiveness but it's hard to miss seeing intent.

Certainly there is no horse trading over policy with Dems if that's what you mean by expanding the base. Dem leaders are into scorched earth not negotiation. But Trump has staked out a position: pro American patriotism. If you agree to that, he seems willing even eager to discuss and debate policy specifics to reach agreement on what's best for America.

[Tom Bowler]

Ext 01:26 PM,

I listened to Doug Jones's speech while riding home from northern NH today. It was nonsensical. He mentioned JFK's book, "Profiles in Courage" and talked about having the courage to put country over party. Then, of course, said he would courageously vote with his party to impeach. Apparently, his message was for his Republican colleagues.

He said the evidence against Trump was overwhelming. But at the same time he complained about the travesty of a Senate trial with no witnesses. Imagine how delighted he'll be once the impeachment is over with and Lindsey Graham calls those witnesses for Senate Judiciary Committee hearings. Ought to be fun to watch.

Jones must have plans for life after November. Presidential Approval in Alabama is a net +23. Or perhaps he thinks his constituents are really, really stupid.

[Extraneus]

I agree with Ignatz. He's just working on his post-loss viability.

[Captain Hate]

GUS,

I used to work with a big baseball fan who would regularly go on the road with the Indians when they would play the Tigers or White Sox. We both hated Rick Manning and agreed that nobody could be a true Tribe fan if they cheered Mr. 4-3. Even after he left the hatred continued including being responsible for ending Molitar's streak by getting a game winning RBI in extra innings with Paul in the on deck circle.

[President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA]

Porch: "Romney is just setting up his second run in 2024"

Disagree.
I think GUS is correct, bridges have been burnt and Mitt can only run as a Swamp Party candidate in the future.

[Narciso]

I guess they didnt learn to code

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1224719242005827585?s=20&fbclid=IwAR2RVbgHmGbWbb6D82mxY1i4NpqYIwmHjHU1w7m20qLoGb2TIJoXVb0oYrU

[clarice]

via Insty:https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2020/02/03/kim_jong_un_finds_himself_in_a_bind_of_his_own_making_483578.html

[henry]

Shadow got paid how much for screwing up those 4 lines of code?

[anonamom]

Note the travel history of the Madison coronavirus patient:

The patient is an adult with a history of travel to Beijing, China prior to becoming ill and was exposed to known cases while in China.

Everyone coming back from China needs to be quarantined, not just those from Wuhan.

[Narciso]

Exactly if they made from wuhan to hong kong, where there is a garrison across the bay, but also 30 countries.

[Barbara]

Romney will vote to CONVICT

There have to be repercussions for this. Real, meaningful, unrelenting repercussions that will mark this man forever in history for the disgusting thing that he is.

[Narciso]

Boucoup cash henry, but im sure the fonts were nice amd shiny.

[Porchlight]

I'm not saying Romney is setting up his 2024 run in a SMART fashion. We already know he's not a smart candidate.

[GUS]

Capn' Suntan.

Rick Manning got traded to the BREWERS for Gorman Thomas.

My middle name is Manning.