Meanwhile, Back In Iowa...

More results have trickled in. At last look, 538 had 71% of the votes. Their prediction jibes with that of the NY Times Upshot: Sanders will probably have more total votes (both first and second round) and Buttigieg will probably get more delegates. Why? Sort of an Electoral Pre-School effect:

So far, Sen. An urban areas and college towns, which punch a bit below their weight in terms of delegates.

I wouldn't spend much more time delving into the details of the Iowa Way - After what one wag described as an explosive shower of radioactive clowns I doubt these caucuses will be first in the nation again.

Comments

[peter]

Two of my favorite Kirk Douglas movies were Ace in the Hole and Lust for Life.

[clarice]

https://theintercept.com/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-app-shadow-acronym/

The App Developers story continues

[MJW]

Though Romney richly deserves being recalled, it's unlikely the Constitution allows it. The Supreme Court has never ruled on the issue, but other SCOTUS cases strongly suggest to me that they would reject a state recall because the Constitution sets the term and qualifications for Senators.

[JM Hanes]

It's fun seeing Dems lauding Romney to Kingdom come. The Dem guy on Fox news compared his "fundamental decency" to John McCain's!! LOL!

[Another Bob]

Etymology of dittohead:

Nearly everyone who called Limbaugh’s show would start their call with some compliment about Rush or the show. Rush came to see this as waste of time and instructed callers to merely start with “ditto”, as in “Ditto, Rush...”. Evolved to “Megadittos, Rush...”, and Rush came to refer to his fanbase as “Dittoheads”.

[hrtshpdbox]

The App Developers story continues

Dems vs Dems, the best high comedy.

[hrtshpdbox]

Tucker leads with "Pierre Delecto Strikes Again"

[Porchlight]

That sure is a cute little creature, Momto2. And the witch is sweet too. :)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Oh. We are all lock step mesmerized by Rush to ditto Trump. You were right to be concerned. /idiot--

What was this in response to?

[henry]

Thread

@benktallmadge

American company @GileadSciences provided China anti-virus drug to save Chinazi lives, the murderous/ungrateful Chinazis who produced the deadly virus then stole @GileadSciences patent.

U can’t make this up! 🤦🏼‍♂️

https://twitter.com/benktallmadge/status/1225009963455500289?s=21

twitter.com/g_easton819/st…

[JimNorCal]

"Manchin should be in trouble as well."

He was re elected in 2018, I think. Lots of time for memories to blur and other issues to gain prominence

[MissMarple2]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-109/

Statement from Stephanie Grisham, the President's Press Secretary, about the end of the impeachment debacle.

[Captain Hate]

What was this in response to?

Theo @ 7:02

[JM Hanes]

Thanks for the help with dittoheads and the backgrounder!

Theo:

I've never been a dittohead, but it's not like our former president's picks were exactly hands-across-aisle choices. Rush has been thoroughly demonized by the left, and sometimes it's important to push back, especially when it comes to people who have been falsely tarred as racists -- as Rush has been. There are probably a lot of people who have never heard about his charitable work, but all in all, this is a pretty insignificant data point.

[Captain Hate]

This is our Mutt

https://thefederalist.com/2020/02/05/romneys-entire-career-has-been-about-punishing-republicans-for-voting-for-him/

[JimNorCal]

"It's fun seeing Dems lauding Romney to Kingdom come"

A recent meme showed DJT with a magic wand saying "For my next trick, I'll make Dems loathe Dershowitz and love Bolton"

It is kinda cool to see Dems hearting on Romney and McCain after treating them as vile monsters some few years ago.

[Porchlight]

Theo, I don't think polls are entirely useless. But neither is observation. Since 2016, I have observed, in addition to the hordes of newly-minted Trump supporters on T_D:

1. The Republicans of my acquaintance who were Trump skeptics in 2016 (cautious but willing to vote for him) are now solid supporters.
2. The solid Trump supporters are now wildly enthusiastic.
3. The enthusiastic Trump supporters are over the moon.

If these blocs have moved further toward Trump in the last four years, it stands to reason that the middle has as well.

That doesn't even take into account his roaring success in the economy and all his other accomplishments.

Lastly, in the era of widespread public punishment for Trump supporters, ISTM that one should be even more skeptical of the polls than one was in 2006.

[Porchlight]

Sorry, 2016, not 2006.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

My 3 favorite Kirk Douglas flicks from least fave at top to most at bottom;
Lonely Are the Brave w/Walter Mathou

Paths of Glory w/Adolph Menjou and Ralph Meeker

Out of the Past w/Robert Mitchum and Jane Greer

Honorable mention; The Big Sky and The Big Trees
Mrs Iggy also loved The Man From Snowy River

Out of the Past is a somewhat depressing movie but is a transcendentally well made and compelling film noir. Jane Greer's character is one of the most vile and pathetic in film history.

[MissMarple2]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/want-to-get-people-to-tune-out-all-criticism-of-trump-compare-his-state-of-the-union-address-to-a-nazi-rally

[Captain Hate]

Someone who linked a dead pool site recently had Kirk Douglas at the top.

[Dave (in MA)]

"Pierre Delecto Strikes Again"

Carlson refuses to use Romney's name, so he's been bouncing between that and "Private Equity Guy".

[JimNorCal]

"If these blocs have moved further toward Trump in the last four years, it stands to reason that the middle has as well."

Yes.
And don't forget the power of herd instincts. In 2016, ALL the voices in media were against Trump. Dem politicians, half the Repub politicians, celebs, news anchors, CEOs, professors, economists, scientists, you name it. Publicly admitting support for Trump exposed a person to incredulity and potentially derision. I think that dynamic is completely busted. It may not be "cool" to like Trump, but it's not like before.

[Sandy Daze]

Meanwhile, in another place...

These two articles suggest a different circumstance for the WuFlu, than is in the "official reporting" as relayed by JHU et al:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
and
https://www.theepochtimes.com/funeral-home-worker-in-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-we-are-working-24-7-to-cremate-bodies_3227432.html?

provided for your consideration.

have a nice day.

[MissMarple2]

David Limbaugh
@DavidLimbaugh
·
6h
I’m very proud of the honor Rush received last night & confess that I’ll never deserve, earn or receive anything like it. But I think I’m entitled to honorable mention, maybe even some major award for the incredible restraint I’m showing in not getting in the mud w/ the haters
😎

[Another Bob]

Whomever invented the term WuFlu, thank you.

[Captain Hate]

This should work, no malarkey:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/05/biden-campaign-staff-firing-iowa-110874

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

MM's link at 8:19 prompts me to remark on how many famous quotes are wrongly attributed or just plain wrong.
Seems like more often than not they're bogus.

[Porchlight]

Also wanted to add - similar to my last comment, in 2016, I noticed that Trump's polling margins in Iowa and Ohio were so large that it seemed logical that they would "pull" similar states in the same direction.

In other words if Iowans and Ohioans were so strongly Trump, Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania voters couldn't be *that* far behind.

Add to that Salena Zito's anecdotal observations of Rust Belt voters plus the huge rally crowds, and Trump's your uncle.

[Jane]

How ridiculous. Biden has never won a primary in his life. He’s blaming it on his staff.

He needs to grow up.

Seems pretty clear everything is rigged against Bernie. Will be interesting to see how his supporters react.

[Dave (in MA)]

I wonder if Hunter's ever tooted through a rolled-up ₴100?

[Narciso]

Winderful momto2

I think its a fair bit; its been a nonth or six weeks since it was diagnosed thats three waves of infection

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Totally out of the blue but did anyone else ever find it funny that on The Dukes of Hazard Bo and Luke couldn't own guns because they were on probation or something.
So to make sure they stayed well within the law, they taped dynamite to arrows and blew homes, police cars and businesses up with them.

[rse]

Making it to 103 certainly merits the refrain of thousands standing saying "I am Spartacus."

Must have been magnificent on a large screen in a movie theatre.

[MissMarple2]

Carlos Osweda says the Democrats are going to subject us to the "Algerian Strategy. This thread explains it:

https://twitter.com/COsweda/status/1225192338131021824

[Narciso]

Not the sharpest knife in the drawer

https://www.zola.com/wedding/scottandadrienneapril4

[Narciso]

Just a chronicle of failing upeards from charlie cheetah on.

[Narciso]

True but they had fans in robert malley and jamal khashoggi.

[Porchlight]

.

[Narciso]

Like i said

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/259354-philip-levines-gubernatorial-campaign-brings-in-adrienne-bogen-as-field-director

[Dave (in MA)]

Not the sharpest knife in the drawer

https://www.zola.com/wedding/scottandadrienneapril4

Not 10 minutes ago I was wondering why I couldn't watch a hockey game without having to look at an ad for homosexual marriage-promoting web sites.

[Narciso]

But this was the paste eaters unique skills

[jimmyk]

how many famous quotes are wrongly attributed or just plain wrong.

Most are attributed to either Mark Twain, Churchill, or Abe Lincoln.

[MissMarple2]

https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/05/jody-jones-reacts-to-pelosi-ripping-speech/

This is the gentleman who brother was a border agent who was murdered.

[Narciso]

Their marriage is supposed to be in april, i guess shell learn to code.

[Narciso]

He had the fish

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1225228876793565185

[MissMarple2]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/mitt-romney-is-not-principled-and-he-never-has-been

Christopher Barron documents Romney's flip-flops on gay marriage, abortion, etc.

[Narciso]

Two papers in one:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1225121076230967297

[Theo]

Re polling —

The 2016 polling Miss was indeed marginal. The national polls had Rodham up about 3 and a half points. She won the popular vote by two points. A point and a half “miss” is well within the normal and expected range. There is a limit to how precisely accurate polling can be. If you think polling is worthies because of a point and a half miss, you simply do not understand the science involved or the practical difficulties. Competently done Polling will give you an APPROXIMATION of the final count most of the time. The key words tgere are “approximate “ and “most.”

Re expanding the base —

The one unambiguous effort that Trump has made along these clines is paid family leave. I wish he had not done that but I accept that politics comes into play and you can’t always get what you want. I think enterprise zones, criminal justice reform and particularly school choice are fine ideas. I don’t see them as compromises at all but they are outreach to African Americans in a way that is consistent with conservative principles.

Trump has done nothing like Daady Bush did when he agreed to tax increases to appear bipartisan. Nor has Trump backed off from making strong statements about things that he knows drive progs crazy, like the border wall or giving a medal to Limbaugh. Trump quite obviously is stoking the base more than seeking to win over opponents.

Porch - I agree that Trump supporters from 2016 are even more enthusiastic now. I think this is precisely because he keeps going out of his way to please them.

CH — I never said nor meant nor intended to imply that anyone was mesmerized by Rush or anyone else. I simply used a term for Limbaugh fans that they themselves unashamedly use all the time b

[JimNorCal]

Instapundit:

AN OBSERVATION FROM A FRIEND ON FACEBOOK: “A caller to Rush’s show made an excellent point: If Romney believed just a week ago that there was not enough evidence to convict Trump without additional witnesses, how can he vote to convict today when there have been no additional witnesses?”

There’s nothing sadder than people who talk about standards and principles while engaging in transparently self-serving doubletalk

[Narciso]

The rotten isle

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dd3367fa-3318-11ea-b8ef-1301adfca080

[Captain Hate]

CH — I never said nor meant nor intended to imply that anyone was mesmerized by Rush or anyone else. I simply used a term for Limbaugh fans that they themselves unashamedly use all the time b

I was only answering Iggy on what was being responded to.

[Narciso]

He was aformer jehovahs witness recruited by chowdary.

[Narciso]

Just put her in thr straight jacket

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/481598-nancy-pelosi-should-resign

[Captain Hate]

Rule of holes

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/joe-biden-slams-trump-for-awarding-rush-limbaugh-the-medal-of-freedom

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

The devil bowed her head
Because she knew that she’d been beat
And she laid that golden pen
On the ground at Donald’s feet
Donald said, “Nancy, just come on back
If you ever want to try again
I done told you one you drunk old bat
I’m still your president!”

unattributed on FB

[Narciso]

They never learned anything from snowden or manning

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexadobrien/status/1225189197100744711

[Narciso]

Thingsyou might have said three years ago

https://mobile.twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1225218728402374657

[Narciso]

I guess our surveillance is as week as in the pacific

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32087/admiral-warns-americas-east-coast-is-no-longer-a-safe-haven-thanks-to-russian-subs

[Dave (in MA)]

An idea how to deal with Nancy's copy of the SOTU next year if she's still around.

[Narciso]

You think theyve given up, no sirree bob.

[Narciso]

So mcgowan the front for acronym went from 60 minutes to jack reeds office to the obama admimistration to priorities usa, same job just different plave mats and shes married to an organizer for buttigeg. Its victom kiam territory.

[MissMarple2]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/481766-mcconnell-tees-up-five-trump-judges-after-impeachment-trial-wraps

[lurkersusie]

Excellent

Mollie Hemingway vs. Jonah Goldberg: Impeachment Case Was So Bad "Only Mitt Romney Fell For It"

https://realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/02/05/mollie_hemingway_vs_jonah_goldberg_impeachment_case_was_so_bad_only_mitt_romney_fell_for_it.html…

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

DHS suspends Global Entry, Trusted Traveler Programs for New York residents in response to sanctuary law

[MissMarple2]

lurkersusie,

That link at 10:04 doesn't work.

[Dave (in MA)]

Delete the ellipsis from the URL.

[lurkersusie]

Try this one, mm

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/02/05/mollie_hemingway_vs_jonah_goldberg_impeachment_case_was_so_bad_only_mitt_romney_fell_for_it.html

[JM Hanes]

I'm not sure where Carlos Osweda hails from, but he always seems a little screwy to me. He does what a lot of folks on the left do, which is to use metaphors as if they are literally true.

[Narciso]

Its thomas wictor, maybe it was his one of his neighbors growing up in caracas. The lesson of algeria is to be utterly ruthless and even then aqim grew out of the gia,

[Sandy Daze]

Necessities !

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/hong-kong-went-from-face-mask-shortage-to-run-on-toilet-paper

[Narciso]

The algerians had a group in their junta called the eradicateurs, they were not nice, back in the 90s the foreign ministry spokesman was brahimi. He told thr iraqis amd the syrians to be nice.

[Narciso]

This was whem the libyan fustercluck moved first west then southwest

https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/01/18/the-eradicateurs/

[MissMarple2]

lurkersusie,

Yes, that link works!! Thanks!

[Narciso]

Lamari their head guy was trained by the soviets at feunze and their former colonizers at st. Cyr who also trainec thr more ruthless officers in south america and south africa.

[Another Bob]

Shots fired...

https://twitter.com/thebabylonbee/status/1225230165766217728?s=21

A little out-of-bounds for The Bee I think.

[Narciso]

Frunze their staff college.

[Dave (in MA)]

It's a good thing they didn't use an app to vote on impeachment.

[lurkersusie]

Woah, I didn’t see Jonah’s response to my 10:08
What a petulant child

Jonah Goldberg
@JonahDispatch
·
Replying to @rcpvideo@MittRomney and 2 others
I'm not the editor of the Bulwark. Maybe tell the night intern working your site to shape up. And as I said, significant numbers of senators have said (and even more believe) Trump is guilty, even if they oppose removal.

[Another Bob]

Has Iowa reported 100% yet?

[Captain Hate]

Jonah Goldberg

You can disagree with Romney's decision to convict, but I think that if you actually did a secret poll of the people in republicans with very few exceptions, I think it would be unanimous that he did something wrong.

What did he do wrong? All they can say is "something wrong". Be specific or shut up.

[Another Bob]

Goldberg is FOS.

Name the republicans who believe Trump was guilty or STFU.

[MissMarple2]

I didn't see Nigel Farage in the gallery last night, but I see he was there:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7968773/Nigel-Farage-watches-Donald-Trump-deliver-State-Union-address-Washington.html

[Narciso]

I guess its steve hayes but i dont think amyone would take credit for this bag of dingos kidneys

[JM Hanes]

Theo:

"Trump has done nothing like Daady Bush did when he agreed to tax increases to appear bipartisan."

Are you actually suggesting that wasn't a stupendous error? Your definition of outreach seems to consist of a suicidal embrace of your base's worst nightmare. Yes, Trump deliberate triggers the progs, who manage to show themselves to worst advantage in response. They are not his target constituency. The left is not monolithic and there are plenty of more likely demographic groups in play than your argument allows for.

" Trump quite obviously is stoking the base more than seeking to win over opponents."

Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesn't. You're setting up a false choice here, and I'm just not buying.

[Narciso]

A little manny

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-letter-from-emmanuel-macron-to-the-british-people-q66n22xl3?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_campaign=RA_Engagement_Global&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Letter_M

[Dave (in MA)]

How the hell did I come in third with these maize shuckers?

[Theo]

Why should we care about the secret (or revealed only to J Goldberg) beliefs of Senators? Their only power comes from their votes, not their private beliefs. Their votes are based almost entirely on political considerations, which in a republic is how it should be — the will of the people and all of that.

If someone thinks that Trump “ did something wrong” but votes not to remove him, what does that tell us? One possible explanation is that whatever he did “wrong” did not justify removal. You don’t have to think that Trump is perfect to vote against his removal.

[Narciso]

Its saves timered squaw, and this was after biden spotted her some delegates.

[Narciso]

One of those self indulgent never trumpers

https://readsludge.com/2020/01/23/hedge-fund-billionaires-power-new-democratic-super-pac/

[Narciso]

He controls some energy companies thst the dems have promised to put out of business

[MissMarple2]

Iowa made things worse, I think. Link goes to a screen cap of a Caucus Math Worksheet.

Thread. We found #RoundingErrors in 30% of the precinct math worksheets that we examined from the #IowaCaucus. Each "rounding error" gave one extra delegate to a candidate, over 50% of the time the extra delegate went to @PeteButtigieg. https://t.co/I3KTkbtHdr #SMARTelections pic.twitter.com/btcjCivtbk

— Lulu Friesdat (@LuluFriesdat) February 6, 2020

There are several similar pages, each in a separate tweet. The entire thread is below:

https://twitter.com/LuluFriesdat/status/1225256764649680898

[Melinda]

No, they’re still polling ABob.

[Narciso]

Some details:

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-06/reporters-notebook-we-interview-front-line-coronavirus-doctor-101512020.html

[Narciso]

Youre the liz holmes of campaign management

https://mobile.twitter.com/taraemcg/status/1225225461443309569

[Melinda]

MM-

When rounding errors turn into Bayesian statistics, you either have to go with incompetence or utter malice.

I choose malice.

[Captain Hate]

Ol' Yeller on Mutt

https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/1225144084014256132

[Narciso]

What is this common core math,

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

BREAKING: Rep. Matt Gaetz files ethics charges against Nancy Pelosi for destroying “official records” in ripping President Trump’s SOTU speech

[JM Hanes]

Thomas Wictor? I'm really surprised, because I always used to think he offered plausible perspectives, and interesting elusive details.