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In the Iowa Update du Jour Bernie Sanders will claim the popular vote (both rounds) and may eke out a win in the SDE tally, or State Delegate Equivalents. Apparently Team Sanders organized new satellite caucuses and is turning in great results from them.

Uh, satellite caucuses? Say what? Let's give credit where due - the Iowa State Democrats really leaned into accommodating Bernie and implementing Operation Own Goal:

In particular, the campaign focused heavily on bringing people out to the satellite caucuses that were held across the state and in other parts of the world for Iowans who couldn’t make it to the 7 p.m. caucuses. This was the first year the party hosted satellite caucuses, and no other campaign seems to have invested serious resources in turning those voters out. With 41 state delegates available to be swept up, and fewer than 25 delegates currently separating Pete Buttigieg and Sanders, they could end up making the difference when the delegate count is finalized.

The first caucus was held in Tbilisi, Georgia, of all places and reports are that Sanders led the delegates there. Another was held in St. Petersburg, Florida, where former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is heavily on the airwaves. The first in Iowa was held at a UFCW union hall in Ottumwa, with Sanders winning all 14 of the final votes to net four precinct delegates, a relatively large pickup. At Drake University in Des Moines, workers and students went overwhelmingly for Sanders, giving him five delegates and Sen. Elizabeth Warren two, meaning that he netted five relative to Buttigieg....

In all, there were 87 satellite caucuses. According to Iowa Democratic Party rules, the total delegate value of those caucuses will be determined by satellite turnout and in proportion to the total number of people who came out to vote in the regular caucuses. They are to be worth some percent of the total, meaning that the four delegates Sanders won in Ottumwa, for instance, could actually rise or shrink in the final analysis. But what we know about those caucuses suggests that Sanders may have won those caucuses by enough to overcome his deficit with Buttigieg, which at the time of writing sits at 23.987 delegates with 86 percent of the precincts reporting.

Great. Now let's have the Democrats rewrite the rules for health care and pharmaceutical development.

IN OTHER NEWS: The sun rose in the East and the Senate acquitted Trump. The mini-surprises were a Romney defection but no aisle-crossing from Manchin (D, WV) or Sinema (D, AZ).

Comments

[henry]

HB JiB. Trump is setting you up for a 3 martini lunch. Enjoy!

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Are any of you watching the prayer breakfast???? Trump really gave it to the Dems!!!!

[Porchlight]

The SJWs at my office are already seeing racism in coronavirus discussions. Such as if a student is wondering why so many Asian students are wearing masks, he must be a racist.

[Porchlight]

BREAKING: Chinese doctor Li Wenliang, who was accused of spreading rumors after trying to warn colleagues about coronavirus, has died of the illness

Very sad. I hope he knew before he died that he saved potentially millions of lives, in furtherance of his oath.

[Jane]

I have another tech question. (sorry) As you k now my new Ipad is toast so I went back to my old Ipad. Suddenly it won't connect to Apple and Itunes. If I go on my phone it lists all my devices, including that, but if I go to update an Ap it says: "Your account has been disabled in the App store and Itunes". Then it provides no options for changing that.

It never was before. Any ideas?

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Here are some of his remarks

“Weeks ago, and again yesterday, courageous Republican politicians and leaders had the wisdom, fortitude and strength to do what everyone knows was right,” Trump said in reference to the Senate impeachment trial.
“I don’t like people who use their faith as justification for doing what they know is wrong,” the president added in an apparent dig at Romney who touted his Mormon faith as reason for voting to convict Wednesday.
“I am profoundly religious. My faith is at the heart of who I am,” Romney said on the Senate floor before the vote. “Does anyone seriously believe that I would consent to these consequences other than from an inescapable conviction that my oath before God demanded it of me?”

[Captain Hate]

That's our Restraining Order

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/05/sherrod-brown-melts-down-mcconnell-dictator-gop-gravedigger-of-democracy/

Thanks again to Josh Mandel for keeping all the campaign contributions made to help him defeat that clown. Just stay in Beachwood forever, punk.

[Melinda]

That old device's access was terminated with the activation of the new one as part of the set up process, I imagine.

[MissMarple2]

TLG,

He didn't name Romney or Pelosi, as I understand it, but everyone knew who he was talking about. That's perhaps even better.

Now I am looking forward to what he has to say at noon.

[Captain Hate]

Such as if a student is wondering why so many Asian students are wearing masks, he must be a racist.

I saw a blonde in Atlanta's airport with awesome tas wearing a mask.

[Tom R]

Iggy @ 11:26

People have been predicting the demise of America's two party system for as long as I can remember. IMO whether they intended it or not, because of how the Founding Fathers designed Congress they guaranteed that the Constitutional Republic they were creating would always operate under a two party system. The Constitutional design of the legislative branch can be successful as long as both parties consisted of patriots acting for the good of the country.

Now that one party is under the control of Marxists that is no longer the case. End result is a realignment of the parties is occuring and on one side you have the Patriots and on the other you have the Progressives. Any traditional liberal that continues to vote Democrat is putting their party ahead of their country.

[Theo]

JMH —

Of course the “fire up the base” and “expand the base” maneuvers are not mutually exclusive. All good campaigns make some effort to do both. But at some point there is a tension between the two. Some of the voters that you want to woo into your coalition would not be attracted by “red meat” rhetoric and some base members will be unhappy with outreach initiatives that water down the purity of the message that enthuses the base. But I agree that a campaign can do some of both. Reagan for example, despite some criticism at the time, remained faithful to his base but also won in a landslide.

On polling, I rarely look at individual polls. I refer to several polling averages, such as the ones available at RCP, 538 and (I know, I know) HuffPost. They usually give pretty much the same picture.

Once again, polls can get things wrong. The biggest mistake is to treat polls as precision instruments that can forecast extremely tight contests. There is at the end of the day an irreducible mathematical margin of error in any poll and averaging does not get that error down to zero.

But while not precision instruments, polls can be very useful tools in understanding and analyzing public opinion. They are FAR better than anecdotes, which almost always have a huge confirmation bias. If you want to know Trump’s job approval for instance, consult the polls (and not just the polls you “like”), rather than check with your friends.

[MissMarple2]

Captain Hate,

My assumption is that anyone who gets as upset as Sherrod Brown is afraid of indictment and arrest.

[Jane]

Melinda,

Yeah well that doesn't fix it! Harrumph!

[Porchlight]

Happy birthday JiB!

[Jane]

I think tomorrow, to end a perfect week, the Dow should hit 30k. 600 points to go.

[Melinda]

Link to WH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t27sMM9X7m4&feature=youtu.be

[Melinda]

Nahncee wearing her "Bullet Bracelet".

[Melinda]

Grassley has asked Barr, formally, for declassification:

https://www.grassley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2020-01-28%20RHJ%20CEG%20to%20DOJ%20%28FISA%20Report%20Declassification%29_Redacted.pdf

[Porchlight]

Once again, polls can get things wrong. The biggest mistake is to treat polls as precision instruments that can forecast extremely tight contests. There is at the end of the day an irreducible mathematical margin of error in any poll and averaging does not get that error down to zero.

Again, Theo, this defies belief. You said in 2016 that Trump had zero chance of winning. Not some chance, not a slim chance - zero chance.

Based on what? Based on polls.

I and others said, based on polling and anecdotes and other observations, that he had a very good chance of winning.

Why are YOU lecturing US on polling right now? I really like your comments, I think you add a lot to this group. But considering the particular nature of your contributions in 2016 - do I need to dig them up? - this is just ridiculous.

Thanks for the kind words, JMH. :)

[Theo]

As I wrote on the dead thread last night, there will be a lot of fun if Bernie ends up winning the Iowa caucuses by all three metrics. His comrades will scream loud and long that he was deprived of the media victory bounce by the skullduggery of the DNC/Dem Establishment (and they might be right!). The bitterness and acrimony within the Dem party will ratchet up even further.

Pass the popcorn.

[Melinda]

Porch-

It is indeed concerning.

[Captain Hate]

IMO whether they intended it or not, because of how the Founding Fathers designed Congress they guaranteed that the Constitutional Republic they were creating would always operate under a two party system.

I've been saying this for a while, that the electoral college requirements for victory strongly dissuades there being lots of parties. Ol' Yeller has talked about an early election that was decided in the House after multiple votes which would be a good thing to avoid ever again.

[Tom R]

But at some point there is a tension between the two. Some of the voters that you want to woo into your coalition would not be attracted by “red meat” rhetoric and some base members will be unhappy with outreach initiatives that water down the purity of the message that enthuses the base.

Patriotism is the common glue that binds all the various political demographics, consisting of both conservatives and liberals, that make up the MAGA coalition. I'm more than willing to support some of Trump's liberal policies if that helps him get re-elected which in turn will help ultimately defeat the Progtards.

[anonamom]

Hey JMH--I've got friends in stairwells at downtown Drs offices in CLT--real live tornados w this storm.

I do believe you are north and east, right?---they are headed your way.

Take care.

[Porchlight]

I'm more than willing to support some of Trump's liberal policies if that helps him get re-elected which in turn will help ultimately defeat the Progtards.

Ditto. I may not like them, but Trump's re-election is job one. Losing is not worth the purity test application.

[Captain Hate]

Here was that election

https://www.270towin.com/1824_Election/

[Threadkiller]

Losing is not worth the purity test application.

That is exactly what I said in 2012 when I made the claim that a candidate who embraced the Birthers would one day be in The Oval Office.

I think it is just as true today.

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Yes MM I know because I was watching it. Trump is also doing a press conference later so that should be interesting!

[Theo]

Porch —

I confess that I was bearish on DJT’s chances in 2016. As is well known, even HE did not think that he was going to win. I don’t believe that I said “zero” chance but if I did it was hyperbole (or a mistake caused by my then youth). In any event, my predictions at the time were not very good.

But that has basically nothing to do with my point now. Polls are not infallible soothsayers and absolutely need to be understood and analyzed in order to extract the (imperfect) value that they do have. Some polls are unquestionably better than others.

But competently conducted polls are useful data in discerning public opinion. They are far better than anecdotes or gut feelings for that purpose. One can put too much faith in polls for sure, but it is an even bigger mistake to ignore them all together.

[Captain Hate]

Ol' Yeller schools a complete dunce

https://pjmedia.com/trending/lawrence-odonnell-calls-the-senate-anti-democratic-then-mark-levin-schools-him/

[matt - deplore me if you must]

I would have thought the first caucus would hav been in the Caucasus.

[Narciso]

Other than that

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyGrewal/status/1225449192191070208

[Threadkiller]

As is well known, even HE did not think that he was going to win.

Normally I would ask for a single source to back up such a statement, but your use of “well known” suggests that you have multiple references.

[Narciso]

Omg

https://mobile.twitter.com/redsteeze/status/1225447420802162688

[matt - deplore me if you must]

The Democrats have been using the full power of their sway over the mainstream media to try and destroy the president via this impeachment sham. Mitch McConnell let them bring the ball into his court, stole it, then leapt over them with a tomahawk dunk.

One of the pundits

[Tom R]

I just got around to reading the Codevilla oped. For those of you who agree with Codevilla, tell me what you think he is suggesting in his closing argument when he says "we must do unto them more.." :

But what kind of peace we may get depends on the extent to which we may compel our enemies to leave us in peace. And for that, we must do unto them more and before they do unto us.

[Melinda]

Arne? Did you know about this?

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/flooring-executive-charged-antitrust-and-money-laundering-conspiracies

(Of course he did, it's how they work!)

[Threadkiller]

CH, I’m still messing with my new phone and haven’t added the email account. At this point all I can blame it on is laziness. :-(

I will check emails soon.

[Neo]

top Mitt Romney adviser Joseph Cofer Black, who publicly goes by 'Cofer Black,' joined Burisma’s board of directors while Hunter Biden was also serving on the board

[Captain Hate]

That is exactly what I said in 2012 when I made the claim that a candidate who embraced the Birthers would one day be in The Oval Office.

To your credit, there was always something oddly evasive on how Shit Midas addressed weird inconsistencies in his fictitious biography which none of the unfree presstitutes or Uniparty lackeys were at all interested in pursuing. Except DJT.

[Melinda]

DJT's Prayer Breakfast remarks:

https://publicpool.kinja.com/subject-remarks-by-president-trump-at-the-68th-annual-1841492931

[MissMarple2]

Melinda,

Thanks for the link! I copied it and opened it in a separate tab so that I can comment here if there is anything interesting.

[KevlarKid]

"For those of you who agree with Codevilla, tell me what you think he is suggesting in his closing argument when he says "we must do unto them more.."

No.

[henry]

R. Christopher Whalen @rcwhalen
11m

In Depth: How Wuhan Lost the Fight to Contain the Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/rcwhalen/status/1225463319881891840

[Jane]

MM,

Do you have access to the speech Trump is about to give? I suspect it is going to be GREAT - if you love him.

[Porchlight]

As is well known, even HE did not think that he was going to win.

Theo, I don't recall ever reading this from a reliable source.

But competently conducted polls are useful data in discerning public opinion. They are far better than anecdotes or gut feelings for that purpose.

Sometimes they're better - except when they're not. Also, for many reasons, it is difficult to discern which are competently conducted until after the fact.

One can put too much faith in polls for sure, but it is an even bigger mistake to ignore them all together.

Is anyone saying to ignore them altogether?

[Melinda]

Jane,

No one has it yet.

[Tom R]

I made the claim that a candidate who embraced the Birthers would one day be in The Oval Office.

Not getting your point. Are you insinuating that the large majority of the "silent majority" conservative voters that propelled Trump to victory in 2016 are Birthers?

[Jane]

It's on Fox News. So far, just the crowd waiting.

[Tom R]

KK @ 12:07

Thank you for not playing.

[Threadkiller]

Not getting your point.

Not surprised.

[Jane]

The reporter just said: This could be like festivis. Wouldn't that be fun.

[James D.]

Somebody’s internal poll numbers among African-Americans must be even worse than anybody thought:

Trayvon Martin would have been 25 today.

How many 25th birthdays have been stolen from us by white supremacy, gun violence, prejudice, and fear?

#BlackLivesMatter 

(A tweet from Mayor Pete Bootygig, naturally)

[Jane]

Trayvon Martin would be spending this birthday in jail I suspect.

[MissMarple2]

Jane,

Melinda gave us a link to a live stream which hasn't started yet. I opened it in a separate tab so that I can comment if there is anything interesting. (Hopefully exciting!)

[Captain Hate]

As is well known, even HE did not think that he was going to win.

Theo, I don't recall ever reading this from a reliable source.

Me neither. I thought from Day 1 that the Orange Scalpweasel was in it to win it, as implausible as some of us were led to believe it.

[Tom R]

TK @ 12:13

I just assume your post only made sense to you. Trump rejected the Birther nonsense a couple of months before the 2016 election so I can't figure out what logic you are resorting to in order to make your point.

[Jane]

Standing ovation for his lawyers!!!!!

[Threadkiller]

I have explained this to you before, Tom. You have some other motivation when you bring it up as if it was brand new. I don’t want to play along other than to point out that his “rejection of the birther nonsense” happened after the Primary win but before the General.

Head hurt now?

[Captain Hate]

Somebody’s internal poll numbers among African-Americans must be even worse than anybody thought:

Some of the comments in his tweet had videos from Saint Traytable fans who despise him and won't be swayed by obvious pandering.

[Tom R]

Theo @ 11:57

IMO the only competently conducted polls are the internal ones conducted by the campaigns and political party. IMO none of the popular public opinion polls are anywhere close to being accurate and there are multiple reasons for that with the #1 reason being that it is almost impossible for pollsters to get a legitimate representative sample.

[Threadkiller]

Kabuki Komey takes the first shot.

DawsonSFields hardest hit.

[Porchlight]

Darn, I really wish I could watch this.

It's fun to follow along at T_D:

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/ezup1i/magathread_president_donald_j_trump_public/

[Threadkiller]

Paraphrase:

“If Kabuki Komey has his way I wouldn’t be President right now.”

[Porchlight]

Okay, I'm watching it with no sound. The newspaper! Lol

[Melinda]

Bezos Slap!

[Tom R]

I don’t want to play along other than to point out that his “rejection of the birther nonsense” happened after the Primary win but before the General.

Thank you for being honest and acknowledging Trump rejected the Birther nonsense and admitted Obama was born in the US. Hopefully that means you will no longer claim Obama was an illegal alien.

[Threadkiller]

He plans on this to “not be a press conference and more of a victory lap.”

I am hoping my wait ‘n’ see days have come to an end, but it isn’t looking that way. Maybe a big finish?

[Porchlight]

[–]Elun_Mosque 2 points just now

He should rip that rag in half.

[Captain Hate]

Porch

Your 12:24 link comes up blank on my iPad

[MissMarple2]

Ha! Holds up the Washington Post front page with the headline "Trump Acquitted."

Says it's the only good headline he's ever had from the Post!

[Threadkiller]

LOL, Tom.

Have your kid read other people’s comments out loud to you. It may help your comprehension.

[Porchlight]

Try this one, Cap'n:

https://tinyurl.com/qm9wxky

[Threadkiller]

Looks like the audio guys set the microphone “sniffing noise” gain to 11 again.

[Porchlight]

Dow is knocking on the door of 30K.

The winning is off the charts this week.

[Threadkiller]

no longer claim Obama was an illegal alien.

Got proof?

[Porchlight]

He said "bullshit." Peach mints commence

[henry]

hehehehhe

Breaking News Feed @pzf
2m

BREAKING NEWS: DNC Chairman Perez calls for the Iowa Democratic Party to "immediately begin a recanvass" in Iowa "in order to assure public confidence in the results."

[Porchlight]

Oh dear, Tom R, you don't know what you're in for.

[Captain Hate]

Nope on that either. Maybe you need a Reddit account or some other problem at my end.

[Melinda]

Who's link are you watching, TK? I'm using the WH link without that little filter enhancement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t27sMM9X7m4&feature=youtu.be

[Porchlight]

Failed screenwriter Adam Schiff

[Tom R]

Porch @ 12:33

I am well aware of the extent TK will resort to when defending Birther nonsense. I'm just trying to figure out what he was insinuating in his 11:56. It fails the common sense test when you factor in Trump rejected the Birther nonsense a couple of months before the 2016 election.

[Porchlight]

T_D has been quarantined by Reddit, Cap'n, maybe that's it. I'm always in it, and signed in to my account, so I never have a problem. Sorry, not sure how to get around it unless you sign up for Reddit and subscribe.

The quarantine is for this exact reason - to keep interested folks from finding the forum.

[Threadkiller]

Kabuki Komey takes another shot. “Leaking! Lying!!”

[MissMarple2]

MY SENATOR! Mike Braun!

[Threadkiller]

Audio on local radio, Mel

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--“I am profoundly religious. My faith is at the heart of who I am,” Romney said on the Senate floor before the vote. “Does anyone seriously believe that I would consent to these consequences other than from an inescapable conviction that my oath before God demanded it of me?”--

A man of integrity and real faith reserves this kind of statement for a "99 theses on the door" kind of moment where he is taking a personal stand on a fundamental moral point, largely divorced from the matters of state and personality and often entails some substantial personal risk.
He doesn't use it in an instance where many other people of equal or greater faith are in good faith coming to the opposite conclusion. It's a mark of a petty nature and a relentless hubris and insecurity that demands ostentatious displays of arrogance masquerading as A Dope For All Seasons sacrificial conscientiousness.
What a slicked-back, frickin poser.

[Melinda]

There’s the team adding your bonus in the feed.

[Porchlight]

Shout out to Grassley, with a Grassley impression. Love it. Extra points for Iowa.

[Threadkiller]

Have someone read to you out loud and very slowly Porch’s 11:53 and my 11:56, Tom. Try to cleanse your mind of your incorrect assumptions and you may figure it out.

I don’t understand why this is the hill you are fighting on while Trump’s speech seems to be so much more important. Remember, you jumped on something I said. I didn’t invite this distraction of yours.

[Jane]

3 year witch hunt! Dirty cops! Bad people! Good thing I fired Comey! If we didn't win the stock market would have crashed.

This is a celebration! We went thru hell - unfairly and this is the end result. (Hold ups "TRUMP ACQUITTAL" headline in WP! "Only good headline I've ever had from them")

We went thru the Russia hoax, and then the MUeller BS which should have lasted 3 days. Tremendous corruption. Fisa courts should be ashamed of themselves. They knew in 2 days we were innocent but they wanted continue to inflict pain.

Hillary Clinton and DNC paid millions of dollars for Steele Dossier - Steele has now admitted it was a fake.

Corrupt Adam Schiff made up facts. Thankfully we had transcripts. Brings up Vindimen and his corrupt twin brother.

Congratulates Mitch McConnell. 191 Federal Judges - 2 Supreme Court Judges. He understood that this is crooked politics.

Recognizes Senators, Cassidy, Brawn, Grassley who made Comey choke. Josh Hawley - he was incensed about the impeachment hoax. (Never heard Mitt use religion as a crutch before). Mike Lee is a brilliant and difficult guy. Mike tell the people of Utah I am sorry about Mitt Romney.Kelly Lafler has been downright nasty and mean to the people who were for impeachment.

On to Congresspeople. All they want to do is raise taxes, open borders, sanctuary cities and get rid of everyone's healthcare. They are lousy politicians, viscous and mean - Schiff, Pelosi - she may pray but she prays for the opposite - but they stick together like glue.

Republican party's poll numbers have gone up more than any time since 2004 - 2005.

It's been very unfair for my familly/

[Threadkiller]

Maybe it is my discerning ear, Mel. I can hear the deep inhale sniff on the whitehouse feed as well.

[Melinda]

Did he call someone a Satanist?

[MissMarple2]

Mike Lee introduced as "the most popular senator from Utah by far."

He tells the people of Utah he's sorry about Mitt Romney.

[Threadkiller]

Sounds like a SCUBA regulator.

[Porchlight]

[–]RlzJohnnyMAMERICA FIRST 32 points 4 minutes ago

Tell the people of Utah
I’m sorry about Mitt Romney
🤣🤣🤣

[Porchlight]

Good job Jane!

[Barbara]

Happy Birthday JiB!🎉🎉🎉