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February 06, 2020

Comments

MissMarple2

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
“This President has done more for African Americans in this Country than any President since Lincoln.” @LouDobbs

MissMarple2

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
“The Senate acquitted President Trump of both charges fabricated by Congressional Democrats, led by Speaker Pelosi and Adam Schiff, to carry out the most egregious and partisan attack against any president in our history - a man they knew to be innocent.” @LouDobbs
@FoxBusiness

President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA

An image that is widespread on Chinese social media.
Who knows where it leads but there's a sense of Mandate of Heaven.
One wonders if the CCP will hope it dies down or if they'll try to get out front to co-opt it.
Dr Li who was dinged by authorities when he tried to warn about corona virus. He has since died of the virus.

DrJ

Cruizin' for a bruisin' DrJ?

Oooooh -- kinky! :)

For a change I'm in a great mood. Three major good things have happened this week, so I'm being a bit flip.

Elliott

Perchance the Speaker will persist in entreating Divine Grace for the President and the Nation. It would be regrettable for her to set sail for new Orisons when the tried and true appeals have found a sympathetic ear and give all signs of serving as, if I may express myself in the littoral sense, the shore and bulwark of the Republic.

Narciso

Hey elliot how have you been.

JM Hanes

DrJ:

Nothing wrong with flip when you're feeling good, which I'm glad to hear you are. :-)

Theo

Porchlight—

Re the discussion of election forecast models, some professor named Bitcofer has one that purportedly predicts that the Dems will “easily” win the White House this year and will gain House seats. I don’t know the underlying mechanics but it too does not rely on polls.

Apparently this same professor using the same model more or less accurately predicted the 2018 elections, but that was not a difficult feat. Anyone who understands much of anything about election cycles knows that the party not in the White House tends to do quite well in midterms. See 2006, 2010 and 2014.

My real point is that these sorts of “models” can occasionally be right and if sophisticated enough can identify some historical fundamentals, but I would not put much faith in them. Candidates and campaigns do matter and times do change.

anonamom

If anyone wants to reTweet Dr. Li's pic:

https://twitter.com/janisfrayer/status/1225588052891844610

Narciso

Epidemic struck china in the later part of the manchu dynasty from the 1860sto the 1890s an interesting footnote.

JM Hanes

Elliott!

Mother Pelosi is simply coasting on a wing and a prayer now, but the bitch will be beached ere long, stranded, as it were, unbuttressed, an abutment of the Bay.

MissMarple2

https://theintercept.com/2020/02/06/mike-bloomberg-campaign-plagiarization/

Headline:

Bloomberg Plagiarized Parts of At Least Eight of His Plans

Twitter thread by the author:

https://twitter.com/akela_lacy/status/1225553473204301827

Dave (in MA)

Virgin Boy covering the NH primary.
https://twitter.com/VBTheWise/status/1225557618200055809

Dave (in MA)

AOC Deep Thoughts
https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1225516222827155457

DrJ

JMH, sadly Alcatraz is just a tourist attraction these days. Otherwise we could put Pelosi in Al Capone's former cell.

clarice

Elliott! air kiss air kiss.

Tom R

Frank Caliendo fans will enjoy this.

https://twitter.com/frankcaliendo/status/1225232277531058176?s=21

Tom R

LOL Trump Jr just dropped a truth bomb on Ingraham’s show. When referring to Clinton’s impeachment, he said at least with Clinton he knew who his whistleblower was.

Tom R

More good news. James Wood is back on Twitter

https://twitter.com/realjameswoods/status/1225623348748546049?s=21

MissMarple2

https://stream.org/president-trump-removed-from-double-secret-probation-as-romney-self-immolates/

A really, really good dissection of how Romney flip-flopped on issues as well as how poorly he treated subordinates. Highly recommend.

Melinda

This is nice. Chuy Garcia does things for Durbin, as in flunky:

@carlososweda

Thread

A couple of days ago I wrote that the Democrats are implementing the Algerian Strategy in the United States.

@realDonaldTrump knows this, of course.

@SpeakerPelosi tore up the State of the Union address to signal that she's on board with the Algerian Strategy.

https://twitter.com/cosweda/status/1225618007512059904?s=21

Catsmeat

Believe it or not, this morning driving in I was also thinking of daddy--preparing to teach John Greenleaf Whittier's narrative poem "Snowbound," I was thinking of daddy's advice with 19th c. figures, to google Darwin and x, and so when I got into the office I followed his advice. Nothing good re the intersection of the two, but cool stuff about Darwin's final years and his last meeting with Sedgwick. I miss him a lot.

Happy birthday, JIB!

jim nj

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/politics/mitt-romney-new-old-gop/index.html

Mitt Romney is now the head of the new old GOP

Incredibly stupid headline and even worse analysis posted only for illustrative purpose.

Narciso

Thats just very silly, jim nj and the fact that john avlon one of the ones who sank guilianis campaign in 2008 is in it makes even more so.

Catsmeat

Also, insty has a beautifully lame new open thread opening for those of you who are aficionados: "OPEN THREAD: Try to find some newsworthy recent events to discuss, if you can." Not bad snark given our recent tumult-filled days.

Narciso

Well its been a rather winding week

https://mobile.twitter.com/jsolomonReports/status/1225605982476263424

rich

Posted by: Tom R | February 06, 2020 at 11:42 AM-

this shows i suppose how far behind i am, but the subject of your comment is about the only 'law' in political science.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law

Duverger's law ... SMPD voting will evolve into 2 party systems. In the US case, 3rd party movements typically take a few elections to work themselves out. Examples would be the Reform Party or the Bull Moose Party-they were significant for one or two cycles then the factions sorted themselves into the 2 dominant parties or the driving principles of the 3rd party movement were co-opted or the issues resolved to the satisfaction of the most passionate partisans.

[hope that made some sense ...]

rich

i have beer and deftones ...

hb JIB!

MissMarple2

Melinda,

I posted the first :Algerian Strategy" thread by Osweda a couple of days ago.

Thanks for the sequel! Now I know what to look for.

DrJ

Happiest of birthdays, JiB!

Some time ago I asked for prayers for a major funk that I was unable to shake. I have now, and have been out of it for a few weeks now. And good things are starting to happen.

Tonight's dinner helped the trend: Thai green curry, deep fried tofu, with added Serrano peppers, over rice. It was wonderful.

MissMarple2

Heading to bed.

Nytol!

Narciso

Well that a stimulating meal, glad to see things are going better dr j

rich

Posted by: DrJ | February 06, 2020 at 11:11 PM

sounds delicious. any leftovers?

i hope things continue to improve for you and continued prayers for you and ms.j.

President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA

JMH, 9:15
"I actually tried to add a comment at Don Surber's site, without success, alas"

It's odd. When I try to comment on his site as "anonymous" I get this behavior matrix:
iPhone, iOS, Safari: fail
Laptop, windows, Brave: fail
iPad, iOS, Safari: success

DrJ

Thanks for the good thoughts. I'm back to normal, for better and for worse. :)

MrsJ is a superb cook and baker. I like that! An no, no leftovers -- we ate it all.

jim nj

Confirmed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51409581

Yemen Al-Qaeda leader al-Raymi killed by US strike

jim nj

Confirmed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51409581

Yemen Al-Qaeda leader al-Raymi killed by US strike

rich

Posted by: Theo | February 06, 2020 at 11:42 AM

i'm deeply concerned.

rich

i'm never going to catch up.

jimmyk

“I think illegal voting and vote harvesting are going to be huge issues”

The harvesting won’t matter for the presidential race, since it will mainly be in solid blue states like CA. But it could be the difference for R control of the House or Senate.

rich

dang it. now i have to rummage around in the fridge.

jim nj

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/confidential-banking-records-related-to-hunter-biden-in-senate-hands-report

Suspicious activity reports.

President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA

A short documentary on Shia LeBeouf and "he shall not divide us".
A thrilling bit of history on Throw Back Thursday
Who else remembers?
https://youtu.be/vw9zyxm860Q

Melinda

They’re called “FinCen” inquiries.

Momto2

Happy Birthday, JiB!

Dr. J - Happy to hear things are going well and that meal sounds lovely.

So touching to hear others mention daddy. I think of him often - usually when I see anything with FedX be it truck, package, or airplane.

Narciso

Interesting about al rimu, and an application of the algeriam strategy, this comes from an al jazeera report linked my blog on the raid in 2017, caveats accepted.

One fmr aqap operative says he was told thar the former was aided by the pso. Which explains how 23 hardened operatives walked out of the adjoining mosque, and into the desert.

Narciso

This would be crazy except for that detail and that other emirates services have employed aq operatives as fighters scorpion and frog problem withstwnding

clarice

Good to hear you're on the mend, Dr J.

Captain Hate

For whatever reason none of my usual haunts had this back home but it's all over the place here in Santa Cruz

https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/220/297906/

DrJ

CH, Lagunitas is located in Petaluma, so it is pretty available all over CA. I don't remember who acquired them, but they seem to pretty much have been left alone to do what they do.

MrsJ favors their Imperial Stout.

jim nj

https://thehill.com/policy/international/481841-us-oil-executives-arrested-in-venezuela-after-guaido-visit-to-white

"Six U.S. oil executives previously under house arrest in Venezuela were detained by police Wednesday night following self-declared interim President Juan Guaidó's visit to the White House."

Is this a tit-for-tat?

Narciso

Probably also its par for the course over there

Captain Hate

They were bought out but have kept the quality high. Last year they had 4 packs of 12 ouncers instead of 500 ml bombers and the distribution around me fell off a cliff. I didn't look too far because I have plenty of alternatives but it was always a good value BA imperial stout. So glad I could find it at a hole in the wall place.

jim nj

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a30784690/chernobyl-fungus/

You Should Know About This Chernobyl Fungus That Eats Radiation

It could shield us from deadly rays.

Discovered in 2007. I don't remember hearing about it before.

JM Hanes

jim nj:

I remember reading about the Chernobyl Fungus somewhere, but it was relatively recently. BTW, I left you a comment at 8:02 pm on the previous page. It doesn't require a reply, but I didn't want you to miss it, in case you just dropped in on this page.

JM Hanes

I've been redistricted! And I liked my Congresswoman. Oh well, I still vote at the some polling station.

Nytol.

Dave (in MA)

I've probably mentioned it before, but I love this stuff:
https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/48/155/

The Mrs. usually buys me several for Christmas & B-day. One time she gave me a 1.5l bottle and I couldn't re-cork it, so I was, well, let's say not at top speed the next day.

jim nj

From the land of puzzling new rules and laws...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/06/nyc-real-estate-industry-reeling-after-surprise-broker-fees-ruling/

"The Department of State blindsided the business and even lawmakers on Tuesday when it issued a clarification to rent legislation passed last year, saying landlords must now pay broker’s fees — not tenants."

This is not a a well thought out plan.

jim nj

A few more details on that Israeli airstrike in Syria.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51397357

Syria war: Israel 'hits Iran-backed fighters near Damascus'

JMHanes, saw it, thank you.

Captain Hate

The Mrs. usually buys me several for Christmas & B-day. One time she gave me a 1.5l bottle and I couldn't re-cork it, so I was, well, let's say not at top speed the next day.

A year ago Beer Advocate had a group tasting, at my initiative, of beers you inexplicably hadn't tried. Along with Pilsner Urquel that was my choice. It was really good!

jim nj

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/commander-of-al-sadrs-militia-killed-in-iraq-attack/1726633

Commander of al-Sadr's militia killed in Iraq attack
Thousands rally in Baghdad to condemn al-Sadr supporters' violence against Najaf protesters

Pay back? Message sent?

jim nj

https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/02/06/schiff-asked-bolton-to-submit-an-affidavit-his-response-tells-you-everything-about-that-fiasco/

Bolton refused.

jim nj

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1225597908369780742

A thread about reporting errors in the Iowa caucus voting that still haven't been corrected.

It's nit-picking over minor errors at this point, but it looks like Sanders might have won the popular vote and the delegate count when the final accounting is done.

The damage is done though. The Democrats can't run a faithful, trustworthy election and the wrong people won the first two spots.

On to NH, which might be a little more important, by just a smidgen, than it usually is. I'm guessing there are some new NH poll results out that are scaring the crap out of somebody.

MJW

Regarding Rachel Bitecofer.

Her big claim to fame is an accurate prediction of the 2018 House races. She predicted a Dem pick up of 42 seats; the actual result was 40 seats. However, it was one election (I could find no 2016 predictions), and predicting a big House pick up by the out-of-power party in the first off-year election is hardly forecasting the unexpected.

Furthermore, in making that prediction (near the end of September 2018), she said:

My analysis currently predicts Democrats will pick up 42 House seats as well as holding onto Senate seats in Florida, West Virginia, Montana, Indiana, and Missouri.

Of the Dem holds she predicted, she was correct about West Virginia and Montana, but wrong on Florida, Indiana, and Missouri. So more wrong than right. Claims that she "nailed" the 2018 results are exaggerated.

jim nj

https://nypost.com/2020/02/05/joe-biden-democrats-facing-2020-disaster-after-iowa-and-impeachment-disasters-devine/

This is very good.

"Now that the impeachment farce is finished, and the president is acquitted, the Democratic Party has nothing left but futile gestures to mask its fatal political miscalculation."

They aimed at Trump and took out Biden. Svengali Schiff will not be remembered well in future Democrat days. After January I doubt he will ever again be chairman of any House committee.

jim nj

Hi MJW,

Never heard of her. Did somebody else mention her?

MJW

Yes, Theo at 10:05 PM.

MJW

I should add that Theo isn't the one claiming she nailed the 2018 election. But if you do an Internet search for Bitecofer, you'll find plenty of people saying she did. There's a lot of wishful thinking, I think.

jim nj

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/trump-wins-again/

This is good too.

MJW, I've stopped listening to him if you know what I mean.

I'm going to go out on a sturdy limb early and suggest that there will be no Democratic coat-tail in November and that there may be a Republican one. I think the Iowa results are that dispositive.

MJW

Something to put predictions into perspective: Nate Silver correctly predicted every state in the 2012 Presidential elections. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. (Though to Silver's credit, while he said Clinton was a two-to-one favorite to win, he thought the 2018 presidential race was much closer than most forecasters did.)

jim nj

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/spacemen-and-space-cadets-are-out-as-pentagon-officials-wrangle-with-what-to-call-space-force-members-1.617831

Now this is interesting, what do we call these people? Martians? Just kidding.

I guess it's a time-frame or vision thing. Do you name them after the present mission or their possible future mission?

I mean the first iteration would be some kind of orbital warriors. Whether land-based, or in orbit, controlling satellites and/or weapon platforms, but that seems to lack a vision of what they might become in time.

Anybody want to suggest a name for them, this could be fun.

President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA

"Never heard of her. Did somebody else mention her?"
TomR linked to an article. Look for the phrase "widespread panic" in a comment.
A couple hours later Theo chimed in.

Doubtless panicked Dems reacting to a person who
1) had once worked for Repubs
2) made a successful 2018 prediction
3) has predicted a 2020 Dem presidential win

They are all excited, and not thinking critically. Surprised?

MJW

Error correction: 2016 presidential race, of course.

jim nj

https://www.hughhewitt.com/the-powerless-speaker/

John Schroeder

"Myself, and many others far more capable of judging such things than me, have written of how Barack Obama shrunk the office of POTUS. But what Pelosi is doing to the Speaker’s office makes what Obama did look insignificant. Impeachment is/was a grand but futile gesture. Ripping up a transcript of the SOTU address while rising behind the President delivering it is simply a petty and futile gesture. That’s what is left of the office of Speaker of the House under Nancy Pelosi – pettiness. Not power, pettiness."

Indeed.

President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA

Realizing that many will have TomR kf'ed, here is his comment that started the discussion on Bitecofer

MJWs note on the failure of her Senate prediction is apt. I don't recall it being mentioned in this article (but then, I'm getting old LOL)(but also, after a while her uncritical acceptance of Orange Man Bad made my eyes glaze over). If so, that's a shortcoming of the article.

TomR 4:08
"I agree with her on Widespread Panic but that's it. She is obviously watching a different movie than I am."
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

jim nj

I was looking at the update for the Johns Hopkins app following the coronavirus update and under the countries category I found "other" with 61 infections. Had they gone PC?
Nope, Hong Kong and Taiwan were listed.

So WTF. Hmm. Could that be the cruise ships? Yes.

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/princess-cruises-confirms-41-more-cases-coronavirus-quarantined-ship

Japan finds 41 additional coronavirus cases on quarantined Princess Cruises ship; 61 total

MJW

One thing that everyone seems to emphasize -- both Bitecofer's supporters and herself -- is that supposedly Bitecofer boldly predicted a blue wave in 2018 that others didn't see coming. That's now how I remember it. I recall lots of predictions of a blue tsunami, and general disappointment by the Democrats in the less-than-hoped-for results. And the idea that predicting a big win in the House for the out-of-power party in an off-year election is a bold forecast is silly. The Dems picked up 40 seats in 2018. In 2010, the GOP picked up 63, seats. In 2006, the Dems picked up 30. In 1994, the GOP picked up 52.

jim nj

Jim Sunny,

I saw that on RCP and ignored it. The title there suggested that the swing vote was gone.

jim nj

What I remember of the House and Senate races in 2018 was that the Republicans would lose both. That was mostly the MSM hoping that their guys would win. As we got closer to the election the story changed. Republicans would hold the Senate, maybe pick up a seat, and control of the House was a toss-up depending upon how many Republicans lost seats.

Just before the election I thought we would hold the Senate and barely hold the House.

I was disappointed to lose the House, but I don't think it was a typical off-year election. We had a lot of House Republicans retiring that year. I wasn't sorry to see those people leave, but we lost the power of incumbency. Open seats are much harder to predict.

jim nj

https://phys.org/news/2020-02-year-old-mexican-female-skeleton-distinct.html

"The authors add: "The Tulúm skeletons indicate that either more than one group of people reached the American continent first, or that there was enough time for a small group of early settlers who lived isolated on the Yucatán peninsula to develop a different skull morphology. The early settlement history of America thus seems to be more complex and, moreover, to have occurred at an earlier time than previously assumed."

Yes, I don't like the everything happened at once ideas. To me it makes more sense that every migration had more than one "pulse."

Boricuafudd

Bitecofer noticed the increased third-party votes in 2016 and extrapolated from there. She concluded that these third-party voters were Hillary voters and used this to predict 2018.

I have thought that not enough attention has been given to this group of voters from the 2016 election. In my analysis these voters kept Trump from winning Nevada for example where Hillary margin of victory was 20,000+ votes and Gary Johnson's Libertarian Party alone, received 27,000 more votes than what he received in 2012.

jim nj

nytol

Robin, Schadenfreude Red lipstick

We've got ice falling out of the sky that is supposed to switch over to snow and fall anywhere from 1-3" per hour. Total accumulation of snow - 8-12" on top of whatever ice accumulates. Love upstate NY.

"The Department of State blindsided the business and even lawmakers on Tuesday when it issued a clarification to rent legislation passed last year, saying landlords must now pay broker’s fees — not tenants."

This is not a a well thought out plan.

Have to wonder if this was designed to hurt a particular landlord of say a large corporation who happens to live in DC right now.

Robin, Schadenfreude Red lipstick

You want to know how screwed the Democrats are this election cycle? Dead silence on support for any one candidate. Lots of bad Trump posts and no one actually supporting a candidate. One county legislator celebrating Pelosi's resistance move, otherwise dead silence.

And we're in primary season.

Robin, Schadenfreude Red lipstick

Facebook dead silence, I mean. It's my gauge.

henry

Sanders is leading. Buttgag is second. Warren at about half their level. Biden a distant fourth.

@wbz

In the latest exclusive WBZ/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll, Pete Buttigieg continues his remarkable post-Iowa surge boston.cbslocal.com/2020/02/06/new…

https://twitter.com/wbz/status/1225634437485887488?s=21

Robin, Schadenfreude Red lipstick

in this unpredictable, complex world Trump's opportunism and comfort with chaos
>are more of an advantage than a handicap.

I think this is one of the most astute observations I've read recently. Entrepreneurs do well with chaos and changing gears on the fly - statists not so much. Which is why they've been so remarkably unsuccessful at reigning in populism.

Robin, Schadenfreude Red lipstick

Good grief, where is everyone this morning?

Melinda

Werkin'

MissMarple2

Good morning, Robin!

I slept in. I guess all of the excitement this week wore me out!

MissMarple2


CNN Politics
@CNNPolitics

BREAKING: Former US Rep. Joe Walsh ends his Republican primary challenge against President Trump https://cnn.it/2SpcCSB

Melinda

Head of Canadian BioLab that had 4 Chinese "students" walked out by authorities, dies "suddenly".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51317386

I'm sure it's just a coincidence.

Momto2

Good morning, Robin! I'm here but catching up on the overnight posts. Now to let the dogs out and get coffee.

President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA

Sleepin' :) :)

MissMarple2

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7976713/Elizabeth-Warren-apologizes-women-color-quit-campaign-Nevada-felt-tokenized.html

Another Bob

Stick a fork in Warren, she’s done.

Another Bob

Has Trump nuked that agency Warren invented yet? If not why not?

jimmyk

It’s also important to remember that there are dozens of not hundreds of people making predictions about election results. After the fact, some will be very accurate. Some of those will have been accurate two or three times in a row, even if it’s just luck. The same goes for predicting the stock market.

President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA

Deplorable Don gives another shout out to our RG.
Item 16.
Awwww! I knew RG when he was but a lad, starting out on the Internet ...
https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2020/02/highlights-of-news_7.html

MissMarple2

https://nypost.com/2020/02/07/credit-suisse-boss-tidjane-thiam-steps-down-amid-spying-scandal/

First African-born CEO steps down after being accused of spying on other executives.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame