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February 27, 2020

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jim nj

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/freeman-dyson-physicist-with-a-sci-fi-bent-has-died-at-96/

The man behind the sphere, Freeman Dyson, is dead at 96
He made critical contributions to science and contemplated colonizing the Universe.

And the IQ-challenged author of this article smears Dyson for not being a devotee of global warming. Twit.

jim nj

https://www.newsweek.com/iran-step-fight-iran-ready-respond-1489354

Israel Reveals Plan to Attack Iran's Allies, but Iran is Ready to Fight Back

A Little superficial.

jim nj

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Third-person-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-in-Israel-619215

Israeli who recovered in Japan develops coronavirus again in Israel
Four new cases were discovered on Friday alone, including the first case of transmission on Israeli soil.

This is not good. Another person whose viral load was low enough to be deemed recovered only to see the viral level re-express itself.

Pinandpuller

I’d be interested to see what you car or engineer types think of this anti-EMP device for cars. I don’t take Steven Ben-Nun for the Jim Bakker type FWIW:

Israeli News Live

How to Protect Your Modern Car from EMP Strike

https://youtu.be/g4Zeobowuz0

Pinandpuller

Well jim, it’s well known that Dyson abhorred Nature.

Pinandpuller

jim

Africa has a saying: In every man is two viruses. Corona and AIDS.

Which one wins?

Bill Gates.

jim nj

https://tinyurl.com/v4t6ded

How Iran Became a New Epicenter of the Coronavirus Outbreak

"In an early analysis published on Monday, six Canadian epidemiologists calculated that Iran probably had more than eighteen thousand cases of coronavirus. Their mathematical model was based on Iran’s official death toll, the disease’s infection and mortality rates worldwide, infections in other countries traced to Iran, flight data, and travel patterns. “Given the low volumes of air travel to countries with identified cases of COVID-19 with origin in Iran (such as Canada), it is likely that Iran is currently experiencing a COVID-19 epidemic of significant size,” they concluded. Because of the wide margin of error, the number of cases could range from as low as thirty-seven hundred to as high as fifty-three thousand. In the end, the Canadian epidemiologists settled on eighteen thousand three hundred, with a ninety-five-per-cent confidence rate. All of their estimates are many, many times higher than the figures that Iran has reported. Their model was published on medRxiv, which posts preliminary research that has not yet been peer-reviewed."

This is nothing more than a stab in the dark given what these epidemiologists have to work with and extrapolations. They have suggested a range, with a low, median and high number. I would not have suggested 3,700 cases on my own, but given what I have read most recently, especially about possibly hidden deaths, I'll accept that as a new minimum.

Maybe it's confirmation bias. I already think that Iran, after China, is the 2nd largest threat to the world's health as far as Covid-19 goes so it's easy to accept this research.

If the median of 18,300 cases, or the high estimate of 53,000 cases is correct, Iran is more dangerous than China based on the idea that China is aggressively fighting this and Iran appears to be in denial.

jim nj

Pin,

The guy built some great vacuums too.

jim nj

And isn't the proper quote, "nature abhors a Dyson." I think you got it bare-ass-backwards.

clarice

Sorry, Iggy. These losses don't diminish with time.
Porchlight , it's a good think you got the water filter when you did. In Nov 2009 for reasons unknown too me in Nov 2009 California banned shipment to the state of water filters, including the Berkey.

Pinandpuller

jim

Is that the guy from the commercial? I wasn’t for sure but he’s the only Dyson guy of which I’ve heard.


Also I have to say *are two viruses.

I blame BBC Pidgin for getting in my head.

Pinandpuller

@LimbaughGroyper

Mlndy R0binson assaulted me and my sister tonight. If you have ANY recording of the incident, stills, videos, etc. Please DM it to me so I can forward it to the police department. I need as many different angles of what happened as possible.

Pinandpuller

@mr_scientism

Liberalism isn’t the End of History, it’s the attempted homicide of history.

jim nj

Pin,

I never know when you're pulling my leg.

The vacuum Dyson guy still lives. The other one posited the idea of a "Dyson sphere," an incredibly large structure that an extremely advanced galactic civilization might construct.

It would take a ginormous amount of resources to build, but the idea was that you could build a sphere large enough to contain a sun with the interior of the sphere far enough away from the sun that people could live on the interior of that sphere with the sun providing all of their energy need...

And I've forgotten that you do economic analysis of space flight...

OK, you got me...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h7nzrVJCJ0

jim nj

Pin,

I've never solved my missing audio driver problem so I don't look at videos, but it has been my impression that if you are a true prepper that you have to rely on old cars without computers on board.

I suppose if you were willing to build a Faraday cage in your garage with a grounding rod that your car might be safe while it's in there.

I might be wrong, but I think the worst thing that could happen to an older car would be welded contact points and a blown condenser.

If you had a spare set not in a circuit they'd probably work as replacements.

TK might have a better idea.

jim nj

More importantly

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/02/27/air-force-has-updated-its-song-be-gender-neutral.html

old style
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drfazUBOmCk

Trans-gender version coming soon.

hoyden

THE WEEK IN PICTURES: VOLATILITY EDITION

jim nj

https://www.hughhewitt.com/acting-secretary-of-the-navy-thomas-modly-on-the-navys-coronvirus-plan-and-its-budget-shortfall/

This is very interesting and I suggest it should be read. Maybe I'm not reading the inferences correctly, but it suggests that the Navy budget was stolen during the Obama years to finance the land wars we were engaged in.

jim nj

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-australia-defied-global-health-authority-on-coronavirus-20200228-p545hr.html?btis

Australian universities get huge money from 100,000 Chinese students. And the government barred the return of those students.

"Why were the Australians ahead of the world? For a very simple reason. They don't trust the WHO. The information from multiple international sources is that the WHO is under intense pressure from the Chinese government, and succumbing to it."

That sounds right.

jim nj

https://www.today.com/parents/sixth-grader-utah-couldn-t-say-no-when-asked-dance-t174793

School policy forbids kids from saying 'no' when asked to dance
One mom is fighting back on behalf of her 11-year-old daughter.

Maybe it's different for young girls. As a young boy I was taught that refusing such a request would be rude and insulting.

jim nj

nytol

anonamom

And the IQ-challenged author of this article smears Dyson for not being a devotee of global warming. Twit.

I can't be the only person who has noticed that lots of these brilliant physicists are "climate Skeptics."

Too damned smart to fall for that fake science stuff.

MissMarple2

Here is Secretary Pompeo's full speech at CPAC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hO--nH0xBg

anonamom

This is not good. Another person whose viral load was low enough to be deemed recovered only to see the viral level re-express itself.

There is no indication that they are measuring "viral load" to clear them. Viral load has specific meaning, and involves blood testing.
Far more likely that they may just be doing a swab that picks up--or doesn't--some protein.

That article does NOT convey that information---for all we know, they may assume he was "recovered " from being without a fever for two consecutive days.

As more information from reliable sources becomes available, quarantines may be longer, and period without symptoms to be assumed non infectious may be as well.

This is one "smart" virus, if the virus's goal is to get itself spread widely.

Maximize your health people.

Manuel Transmission

A’mom and Buckeye,

I had lunch with our usual gang yesterday that often includes our retired doc who suffered a stroke awhile back so he can only speak in a low whisper. When I brought up the issue of flu deaths, he said that when a doc loses a patient and puts the cause in the death certificate, invariably the PTB will come back and insist on it being changed to XX implying that insurance, or lawsuits dictate an alternate cause. Given that Iatrogenesis (from Wikipedia) is something like 250k/yr, pealing off 35 or 85k as flu is exactly the kind of squishy stat that makes my teeth itch.

Captain Hate

But Rove told me you had to be for open borders, Amnesty and Hispandering

Trump on pace for record Hispanic vote
“It was interesting during impeachment, it really turned off Hispanics. They repeatedly said they know a coup when they see one.”

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/26/donald-trump-wins-over-hispanics-despite-strict-im/

Gentlejim

MT,
I was in a class last year where the instructor said that Harvard had done a study that found the iatrogenesis was more than likely 500-750k/year. I don’t have a cite for the study. Itchy teeth indeed.

You all behave.

Buckeye

Mine too MT

rse

This is from John Mauldin's weekly newsletter from yesterday--

This week I spoke with (among other experts) Dr. Joseph Kim, the CEO of Inovio. His company (like several others) is working on a COVID-19 vaccine. He’s been in this field many years and knows how these diseases spread. And he believes this one is not going to care about borders. The outbreaks we are now seeing in South Korea, Italy, and other places are only the beginning. Similar clusters will eventually appear in the US.

This virus’s unique challenge is its ability to spread via “asymptomatic” carriers. With SARS and Ebola, it’s very obvious that someone is sick and contagious. They are relatively easy to avoid. Infection mainly happens with medical personnel and family caregivers. With COVID-19, you can seem perfectly healthy, have no fever or other symptoms, but still carry the virus and spread it to others.

You can also catch the virus, recover, and never know you were infected. We don’t know how often that happens, which makes evaluating the data difficult. The Chinese data seems to show about a 2% fatality rate among the people who show symptoms and are diagnosed positive. That’s not necessarily everyone who is infected, so the true fatality rate could be lower.

Dr. Mike Roizen said the problem is we don’t know how many people actually have had the virus and how many died as a result. In calculating a fatality rate, we know neither the numerator nor the denominator with truly accurate precision for the equation. As we get more accurate data, we can make better assessments.

That being said, Dr. Roizen and Dr. Kim both told me this virus is far deadlier than our standard influenza. It appears about 20% of symptomatic people are sick enough to need hospital care, even though most ultimately recover. That’s enough to potentially strain our healthcare resources, generating second-order effects as people with other medical conditions have to wait for treatment.

COVID-19 is unlikely to disappear in warm weather. Hong Kong is always warm and that does not seem to be stopping the virus. The likeliest scenario is that the world now has, in effect, another flu-like virus that will be with us for years. If clinical trials are positive, one or more of the vaccines currently in development could be ready later this year. Many biotech companies are working on it. Moderna said it plans Phase 1 trials to start in April. Dr. Kim cautiously (which is his way) said Inovio’s trials should begin in late spring or early summer.

Yesterday I was at a nice hair salon (lots of curly hair is not actually easy to cut) in the heart of Buckhead (across the street from where steph and I had dinner with beasts and Dr J). Guy cutting my hair knows I know things factually so he asks me about virus as he is shampooing my hair. Another hairstylist stopped what she was doing and came over with a look of utter terror on her face and said to me "Are saying everyone who gets it is not actually going to die?"

I said yes, in china it seems to have a 2% fatality rate among those infected and we have a much better health are system. Then she said "we're being jerked around to scare us".

Just an anecdote but interesting.

Manuel Transmission

RSE,

Gdtr just got accepted into a Leman charter for this fall (3rd grade), but can’t tell her yet, because the Montessori will expel her immediately if they find out.

Buckeye

Well, the meet up with the foreign grad students last night was interesting. Of about 20 people, 2 were Asian, A Chinese guy and a South Korean guy.

Nobody was wearing a mask:)

The Chinese guy has recently finished a PhD in Biology. He confirmed my suspicion that flu vaccines are rare in China, and stats about yearly flu deaths would never be published and made available to the public.

He also said that the Chinese have been slow to embrace “western” medicine. It would be rare for someone to seek a doctor examination for flu. More likely they would seek the services of someone we would view as a quack.

The guy was getting ready to move to Memphis to teach at M State. BTW, he did not go home for break, his mom came here instead and is temporarily stuck here:)


Buckeye

Some more -19 info.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html

Extraneus

Thanks for the water tips, amom, JM, Porch and all!

And no, we don't go shopping every day. :-)

Extraneus

And thanks to JimNJ for the Freeman Dyson link. I recently read a biography of Richard Feynman and Dyson was a major collaborator. Due to the rule that they don't award it to more than 3 people, Dyson was the odd man out for the quantum electrodynamics Nobel Prize, and he never even finished his PhD.

Btw, while Americans were working together at top universities and before that the Manhattan Project, Tomonaga in closed-off, war-torn Japan independently came up with the equivalent of what Feynman, Dyson and Schwinger did. Pretty amazing.

Buckeye

I usually prepare dinner, and I go to the store nearly everyday.

If I wait until about 4:00, the hot high school gals are running the registers:)

rse

https://ssir.org/books/excerpts/entry/how_culture_shapes_the_climate_change_debate being pushed this past week.

Funny how Climate Change somehow transits to what I called Tranzi OBE in my book.

his book presents evidence and research to help demystify the opposing cultural lenses through which science is interpreted. Its central message is that the social debate around climate change is no longer about carbon dioxide and climate models. It is about values, culture, worldviews and ideology. The public develops positions that are consistent with their preexisting values and with those held by others within the referent groups of which they are part. In this context, efforts to present ever increasing amounts of data, without attending to the deeper values that are threatened by the conclusions they lead to, will only yield greater resistance and make a social consensus even more elusive. The book supports this argument by explaining the sources of organized economic and ideological resistance and extracts lessons from major cultural shifts in the past to engender a better understanding of the problem and motivate the public to take action. It makes a powerful case for a more scientifically literate public, a more socially engaged scientific community, and a more thoughtful mode of public discourse.

sbwaters

Latest critical email to the Associated Press:

This has NO business in a news report:

Although the president himself is famously skeptical of science, the White House is now trying to surround itself with top-flight scientific expertise.

You have provided no evidence to support the claim and most likely cannot.

This has all the earmarks of A Darlene Superville shot and, by now, AP should have the good sense to edit her writing more heavily.

You cannot call his skepticism of shabby science and attack on science itself. Trump has challenged pseudo-science at every turn, and should. By now the Associated Press should appreciate the difference between “consensus of scientists” and science.

Thank you.

Another Bob

“anti-EMP device for cars”

Didn’t sit through the video, but it sound like the principle is to intercept the EMP power pulse received by the bodywork (which is the car’s ground, and acts as a shield for the rest of the electrical system) and have it trip a circuit breaker before it propagates back to the other electricals.

You’d need a VERY fast circuit breaker, which is what they claim to have. You’d also need a guarantee that your “shield” is tight - i.e. the pulse current wouldn’t leak in via some other route. Pulse will penetrate glass and plastics.

I’m skeptical about efficacy in the real world.

jimmyk

I’m skeptical about efficacy in the real world.

Would there also be a risk of the breaker tripping when it's not supposed to, without an EMP?

Buckeye

I don’t think driving will be a high priority after an EMP attack.

Just how many places are you going to go on one tank of gas?

jimmyk

sbw, great response. Meanwhile Politico is apparently trying to smear Trump with the charge that he called the virus itself a "hoax," versus calling the Democrats' claim that he's failed to protect the country from the virus.

https://althouse.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-deceptiveness-of-politicos-claim.html

In any case, the D/MSM strategy is clear; Drum up this talking point in advance of any actual serious spread of the virus here, so that it's ready to go in the event it does spread.

Extraneus

One little problem with that strategy, Jimmy...

(Click to open.)

Buckeye

When -19 does spread, the only noticeable difference for most Americans who become infected is that it may be the only time in their life that an illness is definitively identified as something other than a common cold.

Otherwise, they won’t know the difference.

Buckeye

We really need to win back the house, hold the Senate and the WH.

Time to put Schumer and Pelosi out to pasture.

Extraneus

Italian Soccer Club Plays First Match In An Empty Stadium

As Lombardy, Italy's hardest-hit region, struggles to contain the virus before a cluster emerges in Milan, Italy's most densely populated city, the Milanese football club was forced to play the match without anybody there to witness it, as Italians wrestle with the fact that these 'emergency measures' will likely remain in place for some time.

(Click to open.)

Extraneus

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Wilson/Plame