That Went Well

The stock market has clearly caught the coronavirus.

Rich Lowry exhorts the White House to not downplay this. This might actually be a crisis even if Pelosi and Schiff say it is.

IMHO Trump was looking at this the wrong way. He approached this as if the stock market was an ongoing referendum on his Presidency. It's not - the underlying economy is what counts. As to this coronavirus, its real, the danger is hard to quantify, and there are no obvious comparisons. SARS was a million years ago before China became the world's manufacturer and a key part of so many supply chains.

So yes, if it gets bad enough the global economy could slide into recession and take the US with it. But unlike in the 2008 collapse, where slack regulatory oversight of the mortgage market was a real problem, it would be hard to blame a coronavirus recession on Trump. After all, he's the guy who wanted to cut back our dependence on China and bring manufacturing back to this country. As a result of his tariffs, many companies began exploring alternative non-Chinese suppliers. And Trump is not afraid of travel bans.

Beyond that, does anyone think Bernoie Sanders can run as the guy who'll get the economy going (Hmm, Bloomberg could...)? C'mon - if Trump positions himself as the guy who has been trying to separate us from China for three years and knows how to get this economy going again, he'll be well positioned to ride out a dip that really is not his fault. But if he pooh-poohs it AND it gets notably worse, well, he'll be out of touch and out of office.

MORE: Here is the NY Times in January on Trump's travel ban:

Many companies said they were relatively well positioned for the disruption, thanks in part to the recent easing of the trade tensions between China and the United States. Faced with the threat of tariffs, many companies — particularly retailers — had stocked up on imports from China, or found suppliers in other parts of Asia.

But if the restrictions in China are kept in place for many months and the virus keeps spreading, profits will suffer.

Well, yes.

Comments

[henry]

Good. I needed cheaper stocks so I can buy some.

[MissMarple2]

Paul Joseph Watson
@PrisonPlanet
·
1h
The Milwaukee man who killed five co-workers at a beer company’s corporate office is a black Elizabeth Warren supporter, providing a clue as to why the mass shooting disappeared from the discussion so quickly.

https://summit.news/2020/02/27/milwaukee-mass-shooter-is-a-black-elizabeth-warren-supporter/

[GUS]

Remember Lincoln pissed off a lot of DEMOCRATS by freeing BLACKS from SLAVERY. In fact WISCONSIN, friggin' WISCONSIN, lost 12,000 soldiers to that task.
Lincoln said: << ‘You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.>>

[Jim Eagle]

Can you believe this idiot? And he is the most incompetent, unitelligent, POTUS ever elected.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8049895/Obama-demands-TV-stations-pull-GOP-backed-anit-Biden-attack-ad-quoting-1995-book.html

He didn't even write the book.

[MissMarple2]

Jack,

He thinks he can do whatever the hell he wants. He got away with it in Illinois, then DC, then the White House. No one in the press would criticize him, so he just forged ahead, doing whatever he pleased.

Now, here we are.

[clarice]

Great point, TM!

[Extraneus]

After all, he's the guy who wanted to cut back our dependence on China and bring manufacturing back to this country.

He's also the guy who's been fighting the entire left in order to close the southern border. Just wait until some illegal migrants start coming down with the virus. He won't even have to tweet about it.

[Extraneus]

'This despicable ad is straight out of the Republican disinformation playbook, and it's clearly designed to suppress turnout among minority voters in South Carolina by taking President Obama's voice out of context and twisting his words to mislead viewers,' Obama spokeswoman Katie Hill said in a written statement to news outlets.

Huh?

[GUS]

Jack, that is an under statement. You've been around for a long time, you are a decorated USAF Veteran, an engineer, a successful "JACK LILYWHITE" of many trades and accomplishments. You are a PROUD AMERICAN and EXTREMELY PATRIOTIC.
Obama is/was a complete ZERO. Obama and his beastly WIFE, are the epitome of AFFIRMATIVE ACTION and CREDENTIALED idiots. Obama, our ex-President, had ZERO accomplishments in his life, even after Occidental/Columbia and then HARVARD affirmative action, and degrees/credentials. The wonder and beauty of AMERICA, is that a druggie, and self absorbed douche bag like OPIE VON KENYA, can be elected by the PEOPLE.
Having said all that...WHO THE FUCK is BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA, and why do I care??

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--But unlike in the 2008 collapse, where slack regulatory oversight of the mortgage market was a real problem, it would be hard to blame a coronavirus recession on Trump.--

Looks like TM went back and read the JOM comment archives from several weeks ago. :)

[Extraneus]

Warren Proposes Bill to Take All Money From Trump’s ‘Racist Wall,’ Give to HHS to Fight Coronavirus

[GUS]

Friends, take a MOMENT to read this link. It completely illustrates the MEDIA, the MFM, the corrupt and dishonest biased MEDIA, as it now exists.
Note what it "accents". It isn't concerned with the FACTS of the STORY. It is interested in some sort of blame game, unrelated to what actually happened. It's so far beyond pathetic as to be ridiculous.
https://wtmj.com/wisconsins-afternoon-news/2020/02/27/what-anthony-ferrill-did-before-molson-coors-mass-shooting-and-why-original-reports-first-said-fired-employee-committed-it/

[MissMarple2]

Extraneus,

I KNOW that I read somewhere that Border Patrol had apprehended a group of Iranians or Iraqis crossing the Southern Border.

I would like to know how many they have caught. Not to mention Chinese.

Think I will go see if there are figures somewhere.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I thought this from that story on psychology and furriners was kind of funny, not to mention RACIST!;

In addition, a number of culture-specific syndromes have been identified. Koro sufferers (mostly in Asia), are men which have the mistaken belief that their genitalia are retracting and will disappear.

[Dave (in MA)]

ctrl-F Democrat.

[Old Lurker]

"where slack regulatory oversight of the mortgage market was a real problem,"

When we were all young and innocent, we would have read "slack oversight" and chalked it up to, well, keeping a messy desk and losing important documents down one's pants. Ha Ha.

I do not think for a second that it had anything to do with slack oversight; it was all about transferring great wealth from one group to another in return for...votes and vig off the top.

Talk me out of that.

[peter]

Very clever Dave (in MA) .

[Extraneus]

Responding to she who speaks with forked tongue:

How exactly would open borders protect us from the potential spread of a worldwide pandemic? https://t.co/bzUrvt1g6Y

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) February 27, 2020

[Extraneus]

11 Chinese nationals found inside furniture in truck at US-Mexico border

(Click to open.)

[Captain Hate]

I won't talk you out of that, OL.

Anyone heard this?

The Dow was actually starting to stabilize and then Gavin Newsome announced several thousand cases in California - a complete lie - and the market went into freefall.

That's not only criminal, it's evil.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at February 27, 2020 04:35 PM (zBaqJ)

[Extraneus]

Yesterday I tweeted Border Patrol source saying 91 Chinese migrants were apprehended in the Rio Grande Valley sector since Jan. 1 being tested for cvirus in isolation, handled by respirator-wearing agents. No virus. More Chinese migrants now confirmed in Del Rio Sector. pic.twitter.com/4jAgygOXKM

— Todd Bensman (@BensmanTodd) February 26, 2020

[Dave (in MA)]

It would be interesting to see a map with indicators of coronavirus instances overlaid with marked sanctuary cities.

[joan]

"The commercial is 'designed to suppress turnout among minority voters in South Carolina', the spokeswoman says"

what rubbish -- everything Republicans do 'suppresses' turnout according to Democrats. They're such whiners.

[henry]

CH, I saw the announcement.... right about when the Dow had recovered to about -200 on the day. Then the CA virus stuff, as well as Turkey getting a few dozen troops bomber in Idlib by theRussians.

[GUS]

OL.....slack "oversight".

So if we had more GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE'S telling MORTGAGE LENDERS, how to run their business, we'd have better results????

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Fed's Fisher Stuns CNBC: "Time To Wean Generation Of Money Managers Off Their Dependency On A Fed Put"
Of course, he's no longer at the Fed.

Fisher - "Does The Fed really want to have a put every time the market gets nervous? ...Coming off all-time highs, does it make sense for The Fed to bail the markets out every single time... creating a trap?"

Wapner [CNBC] was quick to jump in, exposing his liquidity-drug-addicted perspective on the world - "How can you 'bail them out every time' and then not bail them out when the market needs it most?"

Fisher almost mockingly repeated the CNBC anchor's words - "'needs it most'? ...as we are coming off record highs? The basic rule is simple - if you're in a hole, stop digging...The Fed has created this dependency and there's an entire generation of money-managers who weren't around in '74, '87, the end of the '90s, anbd even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street... of course they're nervous...The question is - do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and abundant money?"

But, but, but... responded Wapner, "the world is being starved because the supply chains are broken..."

Fisher's response was simple - the Chinese central bank needs to do something, the Japanese central bank, the Singapore central bank, but the question is "why does the Federal Reserve need to cut rates?"

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--it was all about transferring great wealth from one group to another--

What group had great wealth transferred from it and to what group did it go?

[Jane]

Who here lives in SC? How does it feel?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

If you feel like reading a load of transcendental horse shit.

[anonamom]

Even busy, relatively financially naive doctors knew things were not making sense in 2007/8. Frequent topic of office discussion, as we are each responsible for our own retirement fund management.

When one of my partners pointed out some of his concerns late spring 2008 to his local big bank (real estate/mortgages) neighbor about the apparent fragile state of things, the guy told him "The government will never let us go down."

Too big to fail.

OL is right.

[MissMarple2]

“This is my very, very first @realDonaldTrump rally,” Joshua told me.

“I’m so stoked. Everyone’s nice here. It’s a great environment.”

“Everyone’s chill, taking pictures, CHILLAXIN!” pic.twitter.com/75zj8yS3ic

— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) February 27, 2020

Short 22-second video at link. Why Trump does rallies - not only to show his support and let people see and hear him, but to let fence-sitters meet Trump supporters and discover they aren't horrible people.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Here's some more from some other dumbass.

[Melinda]

Now foreclosured homeowners to The Street.

How’d I do?

[henry]

Trump going live again momentarily. About success of African Americans. And likely slamming media...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/

[MissMarple2]

Extraneus,

Thanks for finding those "Chinese nationals sneaking in" stories.

I am still looking for the Iranian/Iraqi stories.

[Extraneus]

Trump's rallies are one reason that Dems would want to create a virus panic. Can't let those redneck wingnuts congregate like that.

[MissMarple2]

Extraneus,

That was one of my first thoughts when the media started pushing the stories of avoiding large gatherings, etc.

[Extraneus]

Yeah, MM, I remembered seeing the Chinese thing where they were built into the furniture. Here are better pics from that bust:

(Click to open.)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

The problem is the vast majority of the wealth of a bubble is illusory.
The people who actually made money are the ones who cashed in at the peak and stashed the cash in non RE assets. Also those who shorted the market.
The Street always makes its vig but the vast majority of the wealth supposedly transferred went poof as the lenders and the buyers both took it in the neck as assets returned to their real value.
That we are in another RE asset bubble, as prices are now even higher in many areas and interest rates even more irrational, seems plain to me but not to others apparently.
The liar loans and subprime mess is much less prevalent now but the vast majority of the last crash was not them either. It was the whole market.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

I'm hoping that Trump will come to Orange and San Diego Counties at some point. Help us take them back from the Dems. There are some truly awful candidates on both sides but enough good ones on the Republicans side to make it worth it.

His rallies not only rev up the base; they give cover to others who are like minded. Seeing that one is not alone in the desert is empowering.

The jackasses will just keep it up until someone confronts them with the facts and knowing that Trump's approval rating is rising even as the media have gone berserk and the Dems have gotten more and more Stalinist has to have a major impact.

Bernie's lack of patriotism hasn't even become a big issue yet, but he is probably our leading America hater. The more Omar and AOC and the rest of the haters speak out, the better. Everyone will know them for who they are.

[Extraneus]

Here's the whole Chinese furniture group: December 10th, 2019.

(Click to open.)

[Old Lurker]

Iggy, just start with how much Jamie Gorelik got from Fannie Mae then keep digging down though the derivates and bond packaging and fed funding and on and on to who was holding which bags, and who had chairs when the music stopped. Uniparty elites inside the DC beltway collected biblical wealth during the troubles. Banks were won and lost and old ladies invested in bonds and bundles never got it back. Books would lay it all out.

[John S]

the best book I read on the financial crisis was "Reckless Endangerment" by Gretchen Morgenson. She talked to all the players and told the history of Fannie Mae, the Fed and the whole sorry mess.

[DrJ]

You can say that again, henry!

[henry]

Don’t tempt me DrJ. ;)

[Melinda]

As Gretchen Morgenstern did lay it out.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Yeah of course the players always apply the haircuts.
But the idea someone who bought a 500k house that was foreclosed on at 250k lost anything besides their downpayment or that the missing 250k was transferred to anyone else is just not so.
Those trillions of valuations only existed for the few non players smart enough to sell to the greater fool and then bank the money rather than plow it into another asset set to plunge with all the rest.
For all the lenders and borrowers seeking to grab those assets valuations and hold onto them; they grabbed the ether.
That is the essence of all asset bubbles. There is no vast wealth to transfer; just wolves looking for sheep to fleece.

[jimmyk]

“it would be hard to blame a coronavirus recession on Trump.”

Oh it won’t be hard at all for the MSM. You heard it here first: Trump’s Katrina! On the other hand, if it proves to be nothing much, Obama will get the credit. Somehow.

[Robin, eff 'em all]

I you need a tow, I will ask the crew to throw you a rope.

Wait, did you trade in the Ledge for a boat? I thought you didn't believe in Climate Change, OL.

[anonamom]

I hear The Ledge is equipped for every eventuality.
And has lots and lots and lots of gin!

[anonamom]

Amy may be a leftist bitch who eats salads with a comb when she's hungry enough, but she comes across as extremely normal. Townhall on Fox.

[henry]

Trump now speaking

[Old Lurker]

Don't disagree with you much, Iggy. Which is why I am so jaded about stock markets trading at PE ratios of 20 reaching to 25 times earnings when the hundred year average is closer to 14. "This time will be different?"

[MissMarple2]

anonamom,

Gin will probably get me to The Ledge, eventually.

By the way, listening to the President, I am reminded that Indianapolis had an all-black high school back in the 1960's, Crispus Attucks.

When they consolidated Indianapolis high schools back in the 1980's, it was closed, which I always thought was a shame.

[Melinda]

SOME parts of the indices are trading at 20+, others parts at 10-12, or lower. Just have to dig a bit more.

[Captain Hate]

Didn't some of the dot com valuations massively screw with the acceptable PE ratios without ever being explained why?

[Melinda]

yes.

and still do today.

[Melinda]

Like "Casper" IPO.

[Dave (in MA)]

Cheerleading a viral pandemic is the new rooting for an economic downturn.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Didn't some of the dot com valuations massively screw with the acceptable PE ratios without ever being explained why?--

You mean like when there was lots and lots of P even when there was little or no E?

[henry]

P? E? They didn’t even have R

[henry]

Order moar popcorn.

@CNBC

Pro-Biden super PAC plans Super Tuesday investment as former vice president starts a comeback

[DrJ]

Here in CA we have the primary and some local/regional elections coming up soon. MrsJ still is a registered Democrat (don't worry -- she doesn't vote that way).

For whom should she vote in the Presidential primary?

I suggested Sanders, since I think he would be the easiest to beat (though others don't agree). She said she couldn't do that, as she wants to play it reasonably straight (as it were).

Any recommendations? And why?

[Extraneus]

Some of the historically exorbitant P/E ratios were for companies like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, etc.

Just saying. I had a bunch of AAPL in 1998, and sold it for a 6% profit that I was proud of. Worst move I ever made.

I think I understand the logic of it, but I guess I don't believe in P/E ratios.

[Old Lurker]

All true guys. In real estate we ignore averages and look at each property one by one. Cash flow is cash flow, and leases are leases. This means that blaring headlines about a stock index which averages good companies with high flyers is dangerous unless one knows the bundle and can handle the parts. This works in both directions. Don't plan an election bragging about some index spiking unless you can deal with the flip side. Phony numbers are phony.

[MissMarple2]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/27/cpac-crowd-applauds-absence-mitt-romney/

Good for them!

[jim nj]

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/liz-peek-democrats-coronavirus-trump

Liz Peek: Desperate Democrats hope coronavirus will undermine Trump

[jim nj]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/27/poll-joe-biden-big-lead-south-carolina-117839

Poll: Biden crushing Sanders in South Carolina

A Monmouth University survey shows the former vice president 20 points ahead of frontrunner, Bernie Sanders.

[Captain Hate]

MrsJ still is a registered Democrat (don't worry -- she doesn't vote that way).

I was a registered D until midway through the reign of Gaylord when I was conned into believing the GOP would really listen to the Tea Party.

[MissMarple2]

I was right. She's an actress.

https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/02/27/patricia-arquette-urges-one-day-economic-shutdown-to-hurt-trump/

[JM Hanes]

Extraneus:

I bought my Apple stock just before Steve Jobs came back. Only stock I ever picked myself, because I liked my Apple computer.

[Old Lurker]

Ext value is nothing more than the present value of projected future returns, with each investor making his own guess about those future flows, and then discounting that at the discount rate that that one investor feels is right based on his thoughts about risks relative to all the other possible investments. Markets just combine all those guesses and valuations. When the market sees it one way and you another, that is when you buy it or sell it. You sold Apple because you did not project the correct earnings stream, and or your personal discount rate differed from the market in subsequent years.

In real estate we use different terms and have different "rules of thumb", but the buy sell process is exactly the same.

Every trade trade has a seller happy with that price and a buyer who thinks he got a deal.

[anonamom]

Ex,since I know misery loves company: My husband sold our Amazon when it hit $400.

[sbwaters]

For whom should she vote in the Presidential primary?

Harold Stassen. He’s been running every year since the 1950s.

[clarice]

Good, Jim. Let's keep this clown show on the road longer.

[jimmyk]

Missed the earlier discussion about Milton Friedman, but OL’s mention of “Capitalism and Freedom” reminded me that that book was my tipping point for becoming a right winger from a rabidly left wing upbringing. I was all of 18 or 19 when I read it, but I never looked back.

[Old Lurker]

Yep, Jimmy. Right book at the right moment for me too.

No regrets.

[Captain Hate]

Per CTH,

Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh Sentenced to Three Years in Federal Prison for Corruption and Fraud

She also will serve 3 years of probation afterwards.
Posted by: GnuBreed at February 27, 2020 08:26 PM (XF4b8)

[GUS]

The Milwaukee Miller beer mass murder.

What do we know about the PERP???

As opposed to the FULL COMMIE RESPONSE.

[Pinandpuller]

@j_gelling

Wait a minute, asking $8.6 billion for Wall funding to stem violent drug cartels and gangs like MS-13 that have killed tens of thousands was an "outrageous waste of $$$" according to Democrats...

But $2.5 billion to fight #coronavirus that's killed 0 in the US is "paltry"? 🤔

[Captain Hate]

The Milwaukee Miller beer mass murder.

What do we know about the PERP???

Black Psychohauntus supporter. Still wondering why you haven't heard more?

[Dave (in MA)]

The media originally started claiming a different guy did it, someone who was recently fired, and they mentioned him by name.

[ENRDV]

City Journal has a fabulous debunking by John Tierney of the whole Ban Plastic movement at https://www.city-journal.org/needless-panic-over-disposable-plastic. While I strongly dislike its physical look and layout, the magazine always has lots of great fact-based articles on liberal lunacy.

[Pinandpuller]

GUS

The perp has to be a disaffected White Supremacist because they are the number one source of danger in America today.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--I was right. She's an actress.--

An Oscar Meyer winner, too, I believe.
Her brother is also some actor dude and seemingly always in some type of drama or trouble.
Her sister Rosanna [another minor actressoid] I first noticed, I'm embarrassed to say, in an episode of one of the worst shows in history "Eight is Enough".
She was and is, to my odd tastes quite cute in that over-bitten, duckling-faced-cutie kinda way.
Equally if not more batty than her pudgier sis.

[Dave (in MA)]

We only know that his wife was a Princess Paleface supporter. I haven't seen confirmation that the shooter was, too.

[Captain Hate]

The media originally started claiming a different guy did it, someone who was recently fired, and they mentioned him by name.

The same people who complained about the accuracy of Clint's movie?

[Narciso]

The very same

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnWHuber/status/1233168790042664967

Yes the one with the mueller deluxe candle set

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--While I strongly dislike its physical look and layout, the magazine always has lots of great fact-based articles on liberal lunacy.--

And it publish heap big smoke signals of Kemosabe Stein.

[MissMarple2]

This guy has now gone to the top of my "most hated" democrat list:

Adam Schiff
@RepAdamSchiff

Managing pandemics requires trustworthy and accurate information.

That’s why this is so disturbing:

The Trump Administration may have exposed health workers to Coronavirus without adequate protection, and then tried to cover it up — all while downplaying risks.
======================================
Schiff will lie with no remorse. Just bald-face lie. What an awful person he is!

[Narciso]

This guy

https://mobile.twitter.com/GreenPayBacker/status/1233190028936916992

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I hesitate to ask with what smell Mueller's deluxe candle set has been imbued.

[Narciso]

Thats a proper response.

[Narciso]

Patricias career began with mightmate on elm street, as a lesser player.

[Narciso]

Nightmare on elm street, rosanna had a brief stint in madonnas first film, they got progressively worse.

[MissMarple2]

African-American supporters pray with President Trump in the Cabinet Room. Posted by Mark Knoller of CBS Radio.

[henry]

@realDonaldTrump

“Anti-Trump Network @CNN doing whatever it can to stoke a national Coronavirus panic. The far left Network pretty much ignoring anyone who they interview who doesn’t blame President Trump.” @trish_regan @FoxNews Media refuses to discuss the great job our professionals are doing!

[Pinandpuller]

The Arquette clan had a trans sister that surprisingly died before getting a job with TPUSA.

[Pinandpuller]

The bad news is there’s a lottery for the Coronavirus vaccine.

The good news is it’s scratch offs.