Big If True: Bernie's Numbers Don't Add Up

I hope you're sitting down - Bernie has released cost and revenue estimates for his 70's era bong-induced fantasies proposed plans and they don't add up. From many candidates I'll pick this passage as my current favorite:

Any credible economist will assert that raising taxes by $30 or $40 trillion would substantially harm entrepreneurship and economic growth, which would dampen the new revenues. Instead, Sanders assumes that these taxes would bring a burst of new economic growth that saves $3.6 trillion over the decade from new tax revenues and less need for safety net spending. No economic analysis is provided defending these extraordinarily unconventional assumptions.

Apparently there are a host of would-be entrepreneurs chained up by our current system and waiting only for exorbitant taxes and a several new phone books of regulations before they start hiring.

Maybe!

Comments

[lyle]

When I come to FL to see you I expect the good stuff from Pomerol, Jack. 😉

[Narciso]

Its about 50/50

[rich]

and it was a monday night because it was the mkl holiday here and markets were closed at the start.

more generally it feels to me that someone has to liquidate their book before open tomorrow.

[sbwaters]

a bottle of 2012 Rioja I had been meaning to de-cork and I am enjoying it now.

... and, Lyle, I noticed an open bottle of Bulleit that needed its level lowered. I am enjoying it now. [Mrs. sbw is resting comfortably on the couch]

[lyle]

Cheers, sbw. Glad to hear Mrs. sbw is doing well.

[henry]

Rich, who holds loans to frackers? That could get dicey with oil in free fall.

[Narciso]

Still begging for yuan

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenKTallmadge/status/1236749388283662336

[Dave (in MA)]

Jane, in my case it was a scout camp called Wild Goose at the Storer Reservation.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Any credible economist will assert that raising taxes by $30 or $40 trillion would substantially harm entrepreneurship and economic growth, which would dampen the new revenues.--

Hey, I just thought of something. I wonder if any credible economist has ever considered whether the converse of that might be true;
whether cutting taxes significantly would substantially encourage entrepreneurship and economic growth and might actually enhance new revenues.
By golly, it sounds like it just might be crazy enough to work. Maybe we could try it sometime.

[MissMarple2]

Seth Doane
@sethdoane
·
1h
Boarding pretty much complete... my flight to Italy.. announcement from flight attendant: “it’s a light flight to Rome tonight..”

[GUS]

Lovely Miss Marple, Biden is not capable of reading from a teleprompter. Biden.....GOING OFF OF A SCRIPT, and attempting, to speak extemperanious, is a JOKE and CLOWNISH. Are we to feel sorry for this GERIATRIC FOOL, and not NOTICE, HIS OBVIOUS inability to CONVERSE???

[JM Hanes]

Ignatz:
I agree that Michelle may be unlikely, but I can see why the Dems might want to see her on the ticket.

Jane:
I think we're pretty much on the same page wrt to a female prez.

GUS:
Smooches to you too! Republican women actually seem to think men are great.

[sbwaters]

Jane, where was Caro?

[lyle]

Just stop with the crazy talk, Ig.

[MissMarple2]

GUS,

All I want is him off the ticket so that Hillary or Michelle can't erase him before inauguration!

[Narciso]

Learmed a leson

https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/03/merkels-left-wing-coalition-partner-calls-for-pact-for-humanity-as-migrants-amass-at-eu-borders/

[lyle]

BTW, Mr. and Mrs. sbw are invited to tour my wine room any time they would like. Chatty-chat about comparisons to other wine rooms they’ve visited is frowned upon. 😎

[Extraneus]

The sous vide ossobuco was great with gnocchi, gremolata, and a cheap pinot grigio. Magnifico.

[Jane]

Caro was at Mara Lago hanging out with our President.

[lyle]

Salute, Ext. Cheap wine selection aside...

[Jane]

I’ve been 1/2 watching Bob Woodson on Levin, and boy was he great. Same for Charlie Kirk last night (although I know someone here hates him)

[clarice]

I made this tonight and it was so good at clearing my sinuses, I'm thinking of bottling the sauce as an elixer :https://cookidoo.co.uk/recipes/recipe/en-GB/r401708?fbclid=IwAR0cuJmT9P6Kcd7bddepnUmEtXvpOtMc20PNrl8LSjQAURNVqfY3JDzajAE
Spicy Korean fried chicken

[MissMarple2]

https://thepoliticalinsider.com/gop-lawmakers-say-obama-dhs-whistleblower-philip-haney-was-murdered/

It doesn't say WHO said it. It says Louis Gohmert and Steve King refuted it.

[Narciso]

So cpac and aipac are mentioned but attendees to the iranian shindig in munich arent

[Jane]

Oh yum Clarice!

[Narciso]

That looks good clarice.

The times came up with an excuse to minimize veritas reporting, eric prince. Amd blackwater.

[Narciso]

Apparently only halper and downer can surveil candidates or other public officials

[Jack Lillywhite]

In re: A female POTUS. Who in American politics is today equal to a Thatcher or a Meir? Forget they were elected under a Parliamentarian form but their leadership in crisis and war. Who do we have?

That is the key attribute she would have to project for my vote.

[clarice]

It IS good.
(for Keto reasons, I subbed the flour with almond flour, the brown sugar with golden Lakanto and the ketchup was sugar free).

[lyle]

Bone-in wings, Clarice? I could see that using boneless thighs. Might have to check it out. I do, actually, have Korean chili paste in my pantry that was given to me from some of my Seattle friends that I’ve yet to open. Serendipity?

[Buckeye]

Sorry for throwing the Moooch turd in the punchbowl and then splitting for the day.

Believe it or not, I had to attend a friend’s ordination today.

It was a most pleasant celebration.

[Narciso]

It was one of those satchel charges buckeye, with nails.

[MissMarple2]

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/03/08/dem-rep-speier-trump-putting-his-most-ardent-supporters-at-risk-by-not-cancelling-rallies/

Video and article at the link.

[Narciso]

Is that kirsten wig

https://variety.com/2020/politics/features/nancy-pelosi-trump-election-2020-democrats-hollywood-1203521090/

[Jack Lillywhite]

Imagine a Dem Congresswoman from California concerned about the health and welfare of a bunch of deplorable. Pigs are flying tonight.

[Narciso]

Miss hill was impressed by this non action

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-mh17-protest/empty-chairs-for-mh17-victims-outside-russias-hague-embassy-idUSKBN20V0QR

[Narciso]

Who you going to believe

https://mobile.twitter.com/drawandstrike/status/1236717198841962496

[Buckeye]

It was one of those satchel charges buckeye, with nails.

Roger that Narciso. Unsettling prospect no matter the outcome.

[MissMarple2]

Narciso,

If that story isn't the biggest bunch of fluff I ever saw, I'll eaat my hat! Look at the last 2 paragraphs!

"Pelosi could have easily retired from Congress in 2017 without compromising her legacy as a political pioneer. But she stayed on for what became the fight of her life out of her love of country and her commitment to progressive ideals. As the 2020 Democratic primaries kick into high gear, she is laser-focused on one big goal: getting a strong Democratic message out and getting voters to the polls on Election Day.

We have the most dangerous person in the history of our country sitting in the White House,” Pelosi says. “That’s different from what happened in 2016. People thought Hillary would win so they didn’t all turn out. Nobody could possibly think that somebody like Donald Trump could be elected president of the United States. But if you don’t turn out, those who do turn out will call the shots.”

The only reason Donald Trump is dangerous is because some of them are afraid they will get arrested!

[Narciso]

This is some kind of professional.

https://mobile.twitter.com/noonanjo/status/1236728321771220992

[Narciso]

I back tracked that estimate the aha had pushed, we would have to have 375,000 cases now doubling every week.

[clarice]

Yes, lyle, bone in wings.I don't see why it wouldn't work with bonless thighs though you might want to cut them in half unless they're quite small.

[MissMarple2]

The Global Times says China and the United States should suspend tariffs until the coronavirus is over.

Gordan Chang thinks that is BS!

Gordon G. Chang
@GordonGChang
·
7m
Why in the world should #China get relief? Its leaders knew about the severity of the #coronavirus epidemic when they inked the deal on January 15. This is just the Chinese hoping we will sign off on their welshing. #COVID19 #CoronavirusOutbreak #NoMoreChineseCheating

[Narciso]

Well it served to shut dowm the hong kong protest,

[Narciso]

The remedy worse than the ailmwnt like duncam mcleod solar shield

[lyle]

Great minds, C. 👊❤️

[James D.]

Narc, Highlander 2? Seriously?

[Narciso]

One could go with the atmospheric seeding that leads to snowpiercer (soon to be a tnt series) or the flu vaccine that opens i am legend.

[MissMarple2]

My daughter wanted me to buy toilet paper if I go out tomorrow. Now, I just bought 24 rolls!

Panic Buying ..Here’s what it looks like in Los Angeles pic.twitter.com/HCK1CjibfV

— Ruthann (@TeaBoots) March 9, 2020

Video at the link.

[Narciso]

That was a terrible film, even virginia madsens presence could save it

https://mobile.twitter.com/julie_kelly2

[Captain Hate]

The Golden Scalpweasel still tight with the non-cheater Champs

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/486541-trump-golfs-with-washington-nationals-players-in-florida

[Narciso]

Their lips are moving

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236714230071640064.html

[Narciso]

The earlier link was about frenchs mustard raising money for baku liz mair against nunez suit.

[MissMarple2]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/trump-jr-wants-to-debate-hunter-biden-on-whos-benefited-more-from-their-dads/

[GUS]

Clarice. It is VENISON time. All of my Venison work from the winter and early 2020, has been butchered, frozen and sasssssssaggged....as we say in WISCONSIN.
My lovely deer....heh heh dear and beloved friend, would you like or enjoy another delicious....WISCONSIN care package?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--I back tracked that estimate the aha had pushed, we would have to have 375,000 cases now doubling every week.--

This was wrong when Sean Davis said it and I pointed out at the time it was, here. It's still wrong.

The guy Sean Davis was responding too didn't understand the info from the AHA. It was not a guess regarding cases over the next two months. It was for the entirety of the outbreak.
Now, I don't know much about epidemiology but that won't stop me from guessing the guy's guess is probably absurd but it did not depend on there being 375,000 cases now or in the very near future.

[jim nj]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/08/ted-cruz-self-quarantine-coronavirus-cpac-124120

[Buckeye]

Speaking of a lack of TP.

While in the rain forest in PR, one of my sisters used a restroom in the middle of nowhere. Unfortunately, the TP was long gone, so she used what she thought was a “wet one” in a container in her back pack.

Turns out, it was actually a germ killing alcohol laden cleaning wipe.

We could hear the screams from across the street.

She says she won’t make that mistake again:)

[Narciso]

I guest i tried to make sense of it, id like to know their methodology.

[Jack Lillywhite]

Lyle,

We are not Pomerol exclusive but are primarily Bordeaux, all regions. One of my favorites is Cantermerle. Look it up. Pontet Canet was our wedding wine. Another unsung cru.

[Narciso]

Ray shielded douthat

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/will-the-coronavirus-and-the-poor-response-doom-trumps-reelection-chances.html

[MissMarple2]

Boy!

That link to Iran with how they are handling the epidemic was something!

[GUS]

How many JOMers are INFECTED or DEAR so far.

How many AMERICANS and/or foreigners have had this virus and merely went thru this virus like many others we have endured, WITHOUT having TESTS to verify the EXACT NATURE of the WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE virus??

[matt - deplore me if you must]

Hey lyle;

Where in the great state of Idaho are you? May be looking up there soon.

[MissMarple2]

https://cbs4indy.com/news/noblesville-schools-say-parent-children-self-quarantined-due-to-attending-event-where-covid-19-present/

This is just north of Indianapolis. Don't tell my daughter!

[Jack Lillywhite]

How many times since 2015 has Trump been doomed by the media?

If they had to put their salaries up on their bets they would all be broke by now.

[clarice]

Gus, of course it would be most appreciated. You needn't deprive yourself of the best of it as you did last time.

[Narciso]

What country has handled this matter, is the sky orange in their corner of the multiverse?

[GUS]

Clarice. To share in the bounty, with those that I love and care for, is my pleasure.
And the current beasts have provided PLENTY.

[MissMarple2]

The Grand Cayman Land field has gone up in flames. The high winds are fanning the flames really bad, and highway is blocked off. It's been burning since this morning. It's really bad. More videos after this one. 👇 pic.twitter.com/Jz5AEsfFUT

— 🇰🇾 ᒪᎥᑎᗪᗩ ᗴᐯᗩᑎᔕ 🇺🇸 (@Justsaytruthnow) March 9, 2020

Video at link. Pretty big fire!

[Narciso]

This fellow isnt impressed, he has a reason to be jaundiced with institutions
https://mobile.twitter.com/g_occhionero/status/1236662883339120640

[MissMarple2]

Jack,

Dow futures are heading down again.

[Narciso]

This might be why

https://mobile.twitter.com/simo6608/status/1236582785684570113

[Another Bob]

Dow futures down 1200 Rn.

[MissMarple2]

Another Greand Cayman fire picture:

Video 2. Grand Cayman Land field burning. This is bad. pic.twitter.com/FPAbYGkvVz

— 🇰🇾 ᒪᎥᑎᗪᗩ ᗴᐯᗩᑎᔕ 🇺🇸 (@Justsaytruthnow) March 9, 2020

[Sandy Daze]

This is a good piece from Claudia Rossett

https://pjmedia.com/claudiarosett/cdcs-lowball-numbers-for-wuhan-virus/

Recommended.

KMAG --> Keep Making America Great.

[GUS]

The FULL COMMIE, is hopeful and engaged in anything that will HARM America.

[Narciso]

It seems easier to short stock then to buy big blocks am i wrong about this?

[Jack Lillywhite]

Off to slumberland.

Slaap lekker, tot morgen.

[MissMarple2]

unseen1
@unseen1_unseen
·
8h
Here are some stats that might make some feel better & help u understand why Trump &the task force are saying the risk is low.

In Hubei, the worst hit China province, there is a total population of 55.8 million people and only 67,500+ cases have been confirmed. (0.12%)

So even in the hardest hit area the chance of getting the virus is small. Now, that could be because of the quarantine measures. So let's look at another hard hit area, Daegu, South Korea. It has a population of about 2.5 million and about 75% of all cases in SK.

In % terms that means that right now Daegu, SK has about a 0.21% infection rate. In Italy the government has quarantined 1/4th of their population in the hardest hit areas where about 5,900 cases have been reported. That works out to about 0.037% of the population infected.

So, from these 3 clusters, its clear that the vast majority of people (99.7%+) in the areas aren't impacted. Yes, it could spread further. Yes, it does have a high infectious rate but as of now it's not impacting 60% of the population. It's impacting a less than 1%

This is the reason that Trump, Pence & the task force continue to say that the vast majority(99.7+%) is at low risk and that the virus has been "contained" and/or "mitigated".

If people would do the math, it's perfectly correct for our leaders to tell us that we are at low risk.

It's not some sinister effort to downplay the crisis, save the economy, prop up poll numbers or to ill inform us. It's a simple conclusion based on the math. As of right now we, the vast majority of Americans, with only 439/333,000,000 cases(99.99+%) are at low risk.

Of course if you think instead of Mini mike spending $500 million on his campaign, he could have given each American $1 million dollars or if you work for the Iowa DNC vote counting department, you probably won't understand any of this.

[rich]

Posted by: Narciso | March 08, 2020 at 09:56 PM

their methodology is big, scary numbers ...

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Seems like a good time to reread "If" by Kipling, especially the first couple of lines.

[Narciso]

I gathered that, why would any institution lobby be anymore responsible.

[Narciso]

Matthew 24 is also helpful? Why many of these scaremongers are charlatans

[MissMarple2]

Sandy Daze,

Probably an average between the thread I posted and the one by Claudia Rossett.

Thanks for the article. I am horrified they don't tabulate statistics on weekdays!

[Narciso]

They use the big triangular coin from hitchhikers it will be fine.

[MissMarple2]

Heading to bed. Good night, folks!

[Narciso]

11 billion? That was before the increase, soengler is sometimes like marvin the android

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--I guest i tried to make sense of it, id like to know their methodology.--

I think the confusion was the reference to a two month epi wave, which I take to be a method of measuring the duration of the crest of an epidemic's wave and seems to be confirmed by China's experience.
Their methodology seems to be a doubling of cases every week or so until you get to a really big scary number and then the wave crests and infects a third of Americans and kills a half million.
Factors such as quarantines, testing, travel restrictions etc seem to not actually be factors in their methods.
If we have 100 million cases they should be rightly honored.
If we have 100 thousand they should rightly be ridiculed.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Who is Marvin the android? Do you mean Norman?
Getting your Star Trek and Warner Bros space cartoons mixed up? :)

[Narciso]

Youd think that, this was the 2005 film version

http://robotfacebook.edwindertien.nl/product/marvin-the-paranoid-android/

[lyle]

Boise, Matt.

I know of both Bordeauz , Jack.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Spengler's problem is he seems to think, perhaps because he spends a lot of time in the Far East, that the Chinese communists have finally solved the central planning problem.
But there is no problem to solve. It's not a problem with a solution but an immutable state of nature; central planning fails compared to free markets. It can't be otherwise.
They can look for a time like they have solved it as many have before but then the laws of mathematics and human nature take over and kablooi, implosion time.

[lyle]

Oops. Bordeaux.

Shit, I’m so embarrassing around these Francophiles...

[Narciso]

So it would seem, but this latest example proves the point.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Gotcha. Used to listen to the Hitchhikers guide many years ago when it was first on the radio. Had some hilarious bits but after a while I lost interest I think partly because it always seemed like he was trying too hard.

[Narciso]

The contrary point, flathead will still sing the somg of landru chastising those who are not of the body

[jim nj]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-i-go-on-a-cruise-celebrity-cruises-royal-caribbean-disney-and-norwegian-offer-free-cancellations-with-caveats-and-issue-strict-instructions-for-passengers-2020-03-07

U.S. State Department warns passengers NOT to go on cruises — says there’s ‘increased risk of infection’ on cruise ships

I think this is along the line of don't expect us to rescue you. We already had our hand slapped the last time we tried a repatriation.

[Narciso]

Song, and kristof well you cant get beijing out of the boy.

[Narciso]

And whatever hayes is,

https://mobile.twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1236847605424013313