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March 18, 2020

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Dave (in MA)

Is there a variant of koro where it's not actually a delusion?

Narciso

Tmi dave tmi.

Past is Prologue

This all makes sense to me:
--Explanation of the coronavirus, posted by a nurse: “Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. It has to do with RNA sequencing.... i.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot. Novel viruses come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1, birds in the case of the Spanish flu).
But once one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity... the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so we can’t fight it off. Sometimes the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years its only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human. Once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that's what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. Its RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward to Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability “slippery."
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity) took off like a rocket. And this was because humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus changed itself in such a way that it causes great damage to human lungs. That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....whichmakes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him till the Black Plague passed.... Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation.
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will), who is to say what it will do next. Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now. #flattenthecurve."

The Infamous Ignatz

--This ain’t even the flu folks...--

It appears to be over twice as transmissable and appears to have a mortality rate somewhere between twice and twenty times that of the flu, so I suppose in a way he's right. Just not the way he meant.

Captain Hate

A doctor just sent me a video by some guy who says breathing hot air (as in a sauna or from your hair dryer) will kill cold and flu viruses. In case you care to test his theory.

Do you know any doctors who aren't irritating quacks?

jim nj

jimmyk,

I haven't seen any age-range data for Italy. I'm going to guess it is still skewing elderly based on the high number of hospitalizations and deaths.

I think Italy and Iran are anomalies. If anybody is creating projections based on those two countries I, personally, would not expect those projections to work anywhere else.

I don't want to claim expertise I don't have, but it's just common sense that China screwed these two countries first, worst or whatever appropriate word comes to mind.

JM Hanes

So, Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?

Narciso

Now a denocrat from utah? Is the second rep to test positive, this makes no sense, no one from california ny washington (yes a cantwell staffer and peachmint counsel.

KevlarKid

Feelin' brassy, JMH? :)

Narciso

Democrat ben adams, dont know him from adam?

Narciso

You know i never associated that era of chicago with the peter cetera one.

Narciso

How in the millions of words related to this matter, this report never popped up

Dave (in MA)

Likely apocryphal story I heard told at truth on the radio once: http://wreallywrandom.blogspot.com/2006/05/my-favorite-music-related-joke.html

Dave (in MA)

s/at/as

Narciso

Lol dave.

The Infamous Ignatz

Thanks for that comment, Past is Prologue.

Narciso

Now richard marx was practicing epidemiology on twitter, fwiw.

Captain Hate

It's brass you want?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm6IP5VhElw

The Infamous Ignatz

--I wish someone would report the Italian data by age group, so we could see how much of the high ICU and death rates are due to the large elderly population.--

This wiki article has it.
At the time of the chart 1697 in total had died and of that total 1638 were over sixty and 1494 were over seventy.

jim nj

jimmyk,

If you scroll down you will find an age-range chart.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

A brief glance and I figure the vast majority of the infected are over age 50. The data is stale by 3 days but should still be representative.

If the rumors that patients over a certain age aren't be placed on respirators the fatality rate won't come down anytime soon.

Dave (in MA)

Seems like quackery:
https://www.sharperimage.com/si/view/category/Virus+Fighters/301036

clarice

Heh, CH.
The Dr (she) is someone I must humor. But just to be safe if you feel ill, breathe hot air.

Adios Muchachos de mi vida..

jim nj

Iggy,

GMAT. I might have beat you to the post but I spent some time looking at the chart. Still am.

Narciso

Yes flathead went there

https://mobile.twitter.com/tomfriedman/status/1240059154158571522?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Did they threaten him with bat chow mein

JM Hanes

Yep, it just seemed like that kinda night, KKid!

Next up, some strings:
Kashmir
Heartbreaker

And a woodwind or two:
Stairway to Heaven

Off to dreamland here. See youse tomorrow.

JM Hanes

Captain:

I liked your brass!

Narciso

Good selections jm,

Whered you find that one capt.

jim nj

Italian fatality rate by age range
Above 90 21.6%
80-89 18.8%
70-79 11.8%
60-69 3.2%
below that it's 1% or less as you move down.

Total deaths up to that point 1,697
60+ 1,638
under 60 59
96.5% of deaths are age 60 or older

I would expect to continue to see large numbers of deaths in Italy for quite some time. Maybe weeks.

Narciso


Maybe like momma jong thinking isnt her strong suit

https://mobile.twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1240422256398028800

1/2aboy&1/2aman

From earlier today:

“I don't know about anyone else but I'm sick [not literally] of thinking about this crap.
Everybody's got a different, useless opinion including me... and even the experts.
I'm gonna focus on stuff I can influence and control which is very little. But it still takes a lot of time and effort.

... truncated...

Posted by: The Infamous Ignatz | March 18, 2020 at 05:33 PM”

Thinking and hearing, yes, very much so. More useful opinions and information could be gleaned from TV when after midnight the big 3 and PuBiS went off the air in the days of this poster’s youth.

Much more or this crap and all one will have is a lot of time and waning effort. With that this useless opinion is going off the air.

jim nj

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/why-us-troops-are-pulling-back-all-over-iraq/163888/

American forces have begun consolidating at better-protected bases as a new Iraqi prime minister-designate tries to form a government.

More details and analysis than the articles I posted last night.

jim nj

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2020/03/17/the-wuhan-virus-and-the-imperative-of-hard-decoupling/

It won’t be easy or painless, but the role China has played in exacerbating the fallout from the coronavirus crisis ought to force Americans to fundamentally reconsider the relationship.

Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA

Mr Pin: "Are you by chance familiar with the comic Bloom County?
That’s where I got my BoA bit."

Yeah, know of it but didn't follow it. My brother emails strips from time to time. I guess this one?

https://www.gocomics.com/bloomcounty/1983/10/23/

jim nj

3/19 Who situation report is still not on-line. With the earlier release time it should be, but...

Worldometer shows total US cases of Chinese flu at 9,464, for an increase of 2,968 and a growth rate of 45.6%.
Yuge. We just passed South Korea and France in the standings. About 3,000 behind Germany.

My ISP is bouncing up and down again. So I'll post this and maybe come back with more later.

Barbara

Greetings, JMH! Whole lotta old souls here. You wear yours well. keep smilin!

I'll second that, Kev. You, too.

I loved the Spinning Wheel. Good times.

jim nj

https://www.hughhewitt.com/finding-balance/

John Schroeder

We started writing about this earlier in the day. We are making trade-offs with the extreme mitigation efforts we are making.

At some near point in the future we should have a better data-set that will allow us to decide whether to maintain these measures or loosen them.

At some point individual choice is going to be more important than government fiat. Give people enough real information to make reasonable choices about what they want to do. And abandon the guilt and blame game for those actions that people take.

If someone makes a choice that another reasonable individual might take and someone is inadvertently effected, well, that's life. We accept risks every day that have nothing to do with the Wu Flu.

This might take the form of letting people in lower-risk areas engage in more public activity while maintaining the same control over the hot-spots as we have in place now.

KevlarKid

You too, Barbara!

Here's a story that i hope get's far and wide.

https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/17/chinas-post-virus-plan-to-destroy-americas-economy/

jim nj

My routine is limited. I shop for beer, cigarettes and food mostly. Maybe visit the RiteAid or CVS that are on the way for the first two items above. Only if the stuff I want is on sale, because the drugstores are hugely expensive otherwise. I don't really feel constrained. I can still do all those, but there is a sense that I am breaking the rules by even doing that. And almost every one you meet in your travels has the same look on their face. Yes, we aren't completely isolating ourselves, we don't want to harm anyone, but we have needs.

We're all suffering from implied shame for doing what we need to do.

This can't last much longer without a revolt. They cancelled my MOHS surgery. my way overdue colonoscopy and I need a tooth looked at. Multiply that by millions of people.

I don't need to visit a bar or restaurant. I can't really afford them, but if these are the end-times maybe I'd like to.

jim nj

Kev,

I read that story before and it sounds, to me, less like a plan, than internal rah-rah propaganda and wishful thinking.

Go develop wonderful new things to sell to the people who no longer want to take your calls.

Two weeks ago I called it the Huawei virus. I thought it was a good analogy. Anything the Chinese want to sell will now be tainted in some fashion.

jim nj

Still no March 19 WHO situation report.

Worldometer seems most up to date, Johns Hopkins lags with less frequent updates.

I'm going to look at fatality rates next if my ISP doesn't drop out again.

DrJ

Stock futures largely are unchanged. But the night is young!

jim nj

Italy, #2 on the list
35,713 total cases; 2,978 deaths; recovered 4,025; 28,710 active cases; 26,453 mild cases; 2,257 serious or critical cases
8% critical or serious

Iran, #3 on the list
17,361 total cases; 1,135 deaths; recovered 5,710; 10,516 active cases; 10,516 mild cases
O serious or critical cases
Who the f*ck are they kidding? They never report serious cases, The people who die only had mild cases?

The WHO isn't credible allowing this. It makes me wonder about the China statistics.
A financial stock or bond registry, clearing house or depository would be out out of business if they allowed this.

Spain #4 on the list
14,769 total cases; 638 deaths; 1,081 recovered; 13,050 active cases; 12,250 mild; 800 serious or critical
6% serious or critical

Germany #5 on the list
12,327 total cases; 28 deaths; 105 recovered; 12,194 active cases; 12,182 mild; 2 serious or critical
0% serious or critical

USA #6 on the list
9,464 total cases; 155 deaths; 108 recovered; 9,201 active cases; 9,137 mild; 64 serious or critical
1% serious or critical rate

France #7 on the list
9,134 total cases; 264 deaths; 602 recovered; 8,268 active cases; 7,337 mild; 931 serious or critical
11% serious or critical


Recap
Italy fatality rate 8.3%; serious rate 8%
Iran fatality rate 6.5%; serious rate 0%
Spain fatality rate 7.3%; serious rate 6%
Germany fatality rate .02%; serious rate 0%
USA fatality rate 1.6%; serious rate 1%
France fatality rate 6.5%; serious rate 11%

Discount the Iran statistics as unreliable. Spain closely trails Italy. France may surpass Spain because of that high serious rate. Germany exhibits amazing Teutonic efficiency.

USA, eh, not so bad, given this competition.

But when you look at these numbers it's puzzling. We, in the US, were caught short by the testing snafu, but we did manage to cut international travel with China before they did.

So Europe got caught even shorter. More possible infections without the travel ban. Yet that doesn't seem to gibe with the statistics. They're skewed toward critical. They must have missed the lightly infected. By a huge margin.

A few more daily test results like we've seen over the last two days here and we will be in the #3 spot rapidly, but we will likely, I hope, catch more of the lightly infected. And that will drive the serious statistical rates down. A larger denominator.

Comments welcome. This is not my expertise. I'm just working off common sense. And, well, yeah I did pass the tests to be a Chartered Financial Analyst, so I do know something about analyzing numbers.

peter

jim nj, your contributions to this board are invaluable

henry

Work from home, today first full day. Seems very strange.

jim nj

So we have passed South Korea and France in raw numbers. We may surpass Germany in 3-4 days in raw numbers, Spain in 6-8 days in raw numbers, Iran's bogus numbers in 10 days.

Just guessing. Italy is a stretch the way they are going. Maybe we never pass them, but I don't see the US matching their fatality or critical rates anyway.

And if we can get our own set of data we might realize that we don't need to pay attention to the foreign data.

henry

@cnbc

EU's Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier says he has tested positive for the coronavirus

MissMarple2

BraveHeart
@Braveheart_USA
·
8h
If COVID-19 forces Planned Parenthood to be closed for two weeks, the virus will have SAVED more lives than it has taken.

MissMarple2

The Associated Press
@AP
·
4m
Virus update:
• Hope as former virus epicenter in Wuhan, China reports no new cases.
• Trump goes on ''war'' footing, invokes government power.
• Israel's Netanyahu accused of exploiting crisis.

https://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak

Captain Hate

JMH & narc,

Here's where I found that: https://tinyurl.com/wkyswzr

jim nj

Thank you peter, in this case the numbers just fascinate me. I run the numbers and make an educated guess. Some of them work, some don't.

The media will never understand this, but we may have a huge number of Wu Flu cases here that don't compare well to elsewhere.

They will seek to scare us with the raw numbers, most of us here will know better.

It's not the the numbers. It's the severity.

If most cases are mild with low transmission rates we're in pretty good shape.

Friday is forecast to be 78 in the NYC area. If so, I'll be outside in a folding chair reading a book and soaking up the sun. Testing some of the theories.

Nytol

The Infamous Ignatz

--Go develop wonderful new things to sell to the people who no longer want to take your calls.--

That's how I read it too, Jim.
Like Jerry Lewis making plans to woo the beautiful girl who's about to marry Dean Martin.
If they can compete on a level playing field in a non critical or non strategic area going forward then they may get the business.
But contrary to the Gas Chamber types the days of the world just shipping whole industries to China because it's cheaper are over.
Moreover here's a problem the world has yet to recognize.
Because they are a centrally planned economy that depends on undercutting and destroying competition their overall quality will lag. Where they are forced to compete they will either have to improve quality or lose out to lower cost countries. Where they don't have to compete they'll just keep making cheap knockoffs of whatever they stole.
The Belt and Road was already being seen as the neocolonialism it actually is and a particularly nasty variant. Maybe they should rename it The Belgian Road.
If they continue to overplay their hand they risk turning themselves into a pariah state and they are not at a point where they can steam around the world engaging in gunboat diplomacy.

MissMarple2

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/

The Daily Caller reminds us that on January 14 WHO told the world not to worry because China said the virus wasn't contagious.

MissMarple2

Visited a Costco this morning, where most shelves were empty on the weekend...

Trust the food supply chain. pic.twitter.com/y9tR6x0O3d

— The Food Professor (@FoodProfessor) March 18, 2020

Link goes to 4 photos of full shelves and coolers. Truck drivers are some of the heroes in this crisis.

Captain Hate

The Epoch Times on the closed case by the DOJ against Russian company that told Mueller's goon squad "game on":

https://www.theepochtimes.com/prosecutors-drop-case-against-alleged-funder-of-russian-troll-farm_3277309.html

cathyf

Question on the serious/critical vs mild cases -- has anyone seen any statistics of patients moving from the mild to serious category? In other words, how good a handle do we have on someone who has a positive test and minor symptoms as to whether or not the person is in danger of deteriorating badly?

Sure, the thousands of new cases in the US that we've only been able to test for over the last couple of days don't tell us anything yet. However the cruise ship cases should all pretty much be resolved now, and the South Koreans have done a fabulous job of data collection, and they are far enough ahead of us that we should have some data that we believe coming from there.

MissMarple2

Captain Hate,

Dan Bongino had a take on that case as well. I listened to his show last night and it was pretty interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4D66TM0bVg

Another Bob

JimNJ, any speculation of Germany’s very low death rate? That seems too much an “outlier” to believe.

MissMarple2

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/19/german-military-to-build-emergency-coronavirus-hospital-in-berlin/

MissMarple2

STILL no COVID-19 screening at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport! And get this: not even the arriving passengers from Karachi, Pakistan can believe it! https://t.co/Fgq3bHCsIE

— David Menzies (@TheMenzoid) March 19, 2020

Video at the link. And I think it's a good thing President Trump closed the northern border.

MissMarple2

Megyn Kelly
@megynkelly
·
16h
I am so sick of seeking the news on Coronavirus and constantly getting bombarded w/how it’s all Trump’s fault or what Trump is calling the damn virus. Can we focus on what needs to be done right now and play the blame/political game later? Good Lord.
====================================
When they've even gotten on her last herve, you know we are not being hyper-sensitive.

rse

cathy--

In other words, how good a handle do we have on someone who has a positive test and minor symptoms as to whether or not the person is in danger of deteriorating badly?

Under the supposedly stringent criteria for testing up to this point, how is it that someone with minor symptoms would have been tested?

Maybe if they worked at the hospital? First responders? member of Congress or an athlete?

MissMarple2

Antonio Sabáto Jr

@AntonioSabatoJr
·
9h
In these hard times we have to remember what we stand for; justice, honor and the will to survive anything. America is the greatest and from now on MADE IN THE USA! @realDonaldTrump

MissMarple2

We are in a battle! It's a battle of...

GOOD
vs
EVIL

Please pray for President @realDonaldTrump 🙇🏻‍♀️ pic.twitter.com/qF0Et7isXA

— Renée 🌟🌟🌟 (@ReneeCarrollAZ) December 18, 2019

Video at the link.

clarice

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-gig-economy-to-the-rescue-11584573142?mod=MorningEditorialReport&mod=djemMER_h

clarice

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/18/dark-money-progressive-groups-spending-millions-to-politicize-coronavirus-spread-fear/

MissMarple2

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/18/coronavirus-hillary-clinton-calls-to-make-voting-by-mail-the-norm/amp/

rse

So on monday the main cardiology practice at one of the premier hospitals here for cv practice that is now part of the network of coca cola u's medical providers suddenly cancelled all appointments for the next month.

That meant that we hadn't seen the doctor since the january hospitalization to figure out what to stay on or get off and Kaiser is refusing to cover 90 days of prescriptions during this period when we've been told to isolate at home and while china threatens to cut off supplies of life sustaining med's once you get a cv diagnosis.

Can cocaine mitch and his band please get something in all these bailouts that can at least make the insurance companies cover what is necessary under these circumstances? Just put it on the credit card? Is this reality even on their radar?

Emory has healthcare workers testing positive and someone died there at one of the locations according to an announcement last night. I wonder if that is connected to the abrupt closure.

cathyf

I don't think that the US testing data is useful for my question at all, yet. We aren't testing mild cases, and didn't test hardly anyone up until a few days ago.

The cruise ship passengers were tested multiple times when they were all quarantined on the ship. South Korea has been doing lots of tests and over a longer period of time. Taiwan as well seems to be collecting lots of data.

China it's hard to know what to believe -- maybe they are lying, maybe they managed to break the transmission down by the police state tactics.

The contrast between Germany and Italy is puzzling, given the open borders. The Italians are getting slammed much worse than countries bordering China AND much worse than any other of the Belt and Road countries. (well, except for Iran, maybe, because we don't actually know what's happening there, either.)

Some of this strangeness you can chalk up to bad data collection, random chance, even outright lying, but we've got plenty of places that we trust that we know what's happening, and the huge differences in the spread and outcomes makes me think we are missing something.

Captain Hate

Miss Marple,

Bongino was outstanding how he laid out how witlessly senile Bob Mueller and his team of high priced hacks, led by Weissmann, wasted millions of dollars to be humiliated by Putin's friend. The unfree press will cover this with a pillow because those low IQ numbskulls bought into it hook, line and sinker and their funhouse mirror that makes them see themselves as really really smart can't deal with the straight reflection. Idiots.

Another Bob

A touch of perspective...

Flu season is winding down, but as of two weeks ago flu activity remained high.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

And the spring seasonal allergies are starting to ramp up, giving people yet another source of some respiratory distress. (After one of my moves, I was made miserable by the “new” pollens I was encountering, and had a night or two where I felt like I was drowning in post-nasal drip and it was work to breathe.)

henry

Must not hav a fish handy.

https://futurism.com/the-byte/nasa-mars-lander-hit-itself-shovel

James D.

The media will never understand this

Putting aside deliberate bias and mendacity, the vast majority of reporters and columnists and editors in the MSM should be deathly embarrassed not only at how little they actually know or understand about...well, almost everything they cover...but about how little they care about that fact.

MissMarple2

Captain Hate,

I am so glad you listened to his podcast. I find him one of the best explainers in broadcast journalism.

I listen to him daily, Monday through Friday, usually in the evening, although his show is live at noon. His view of much of this through a cop's perspective is invaluable to me.

Buckeye

This was from Buckeyette’s big boss this morning:

I’m writing you with some important good news: today we received emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a COVID-19 molecular test we’ve developed on our m2000 RealTime system molecular laboratory instrument, and we’re launching the test immediately.

We’re deploying 150,000 tests right now and are scaling up our capacity to be able to produce up to one million tests per week by the end of this month. You can read full details in our press release.

Let me make clear what an accomplishment this is: this was achieved in a remarkably compressed timeframe compared to how long it usually takes to develop a new test, under the extremely high pressure of this surging global need, and by a small team at Abbott Molecular – primarily from R&D, manufacturing, and regulatory – who worked literally 24/7 in recent weeks to meet this challenge. They were supported by their colleagues in Core Diagnostics.

Please join me in congratulating and thanking the outstanding Abbott teams that made this happen. This is Abbott at its very best.

I think I’ll take a few months off from bashing Big Pharma.

henry

Buzz Aldrin on handling quarantine.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-worry-buzz-aldrin-is-protecting-himself-from-the-coronavirus/

MissMarple2

Buckeye,

That is wonderful! I am impressed and think that we are a much better country than the press would have us believe.

henry

Buckeye, my brother complained about FDA delaying their tests as well. If we can find the correct form, can we toss all bureaucrats into an active volcano?

clarice


Iowahawk on kids refusing to self isolate during spring break:
David Burge
@iowahawkblog
·
15h
Criticize them all you want, but you’ll all feel pretty damn stupid if it turns out STDs cure coronavirus
Quote Tweet
Tim Hogan
@timjhogan
· 15h
Oh my god. https://cbsnews.com/…/coronavirus-florida-beaches-ignore-…/……
Show this thread

Another Bob

James, today’s news media have no shame, that’s the problem.

There are a few occupations that seem to produce a disproportionate number of “know it alls” - people who consider themselves well-informed if not expert on whatever topic(s) they choose. And that’s the ones who legit think that way, and doesn’t count those who are just willful shills for a POV.

hrtshpdbox

Italian fatality rate by age range
Above 90 21.6%

So, a 92-year-old has an 80% recovery rate, ewwww scary, sounds like the flu. I want to cite this quote, again, from an expert:

If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Old Lurker

As long as there is no downside to being dumb as a coal bucket, why should the media care?

Buckeye

If we can find the correct form, can we toss all bureaucrats into an active volcano?

I’m in!

Particularly if we can deal with the presstitutes at the same time:)

hrtshpdbox

Another Bob, your 8:15 also describes stock analysts, financial advisers, economic forecasters.

MissMarple2

John Ben Cawley
@JohnBenCawley1
·
1h
Leaving early today, loading more cattle out. Stores are screaming for more beef. We farmers and ranchers are working hard to meet this crisis and put food on your tables. Remember love the Lord and pray for President Trump. Blessings this day to all of you Patriots .

rse

Pension obligation bonds as the solution?

For plans like Kentucky’s that are already low on assets, however, Aaron says the picture isn’t as dire as it seems. The low funding has forced the state to ramp up its annual payments so much that it’s essentially become a pay-as-you go plan: contributions coming in slightly exceed the money going out in payments.

Most other plans are relying on investments to help cover payouts, meaning their decline in assets will factor more into determining the new upcoming payment for governments.

There is a silver lining, notes Miller. Stock prices are abnormally low and so are borrowing costs. Governments could issue pension obligation bonds and put the proceeds into their systems to take advantage of what will hopefully be a market rebound over the next year or so.

“If there was ever a time this made sense for an underfunded plan,” he says, “it would probably be now.”

The Infamous Ignatz

--If we can find the correct form, can we toss all bureaucrats into an active volcano?--

Heh.
Globalization didn't happen in a vacuum. The Gas Chamber didn't just wake up one day and say lets send everything to the communists. All those dumbass, prog-bureaucrat, self-justifying regulations didn't make us safer. They're now killing us AND they made us poorer by sending good paying jobs overseas when we became uncompetitive due to the regulations. In return for the smaller paychecks we got to buy cheap Chinese junk. Nice trade-off.
The Gas Chamber jumped at the chance but much of the chance wouldn't have been there had not the god damned progs have screwed up every damned thing they touch.

I see the NYT has an article with the headline The Era of Small Government is Over. That era ended a hundred years ago pinkos and you are now the establishment that can't justify its existence and will try to turn your failures into justifications to extend your rule of us. I am certain this is not the spark that lights the fuse but it is a perfect example of the kind of unseen crisis or, in the modern vernacular, black swan event that disrupts a society and creates potential chasms out of previous cracks and sets off civil unrest and then a civil war. They are unknowable and unforseeable, but they exist and they occur with unfortunate regularity. The natural human state is complacency, whether it's about earthquakes, depressions disease or war. The natural state of the world is to regularly demonstrate the futility and danger of complacency.

Old Lurker

"The natural human state is complacency,"

and misery and slavery.

Tytler's Cycle.

MissMarple2

Steven Mnuchin
@stevenmnuchin1
·
1h
@federalreserve
announced third facility for Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity. @USTreasury
will provide $10 Billion of credit protection. We are committed to provide liquidity to business and support hard working Americans!!https://home.treasury.gov/news/secretary

MissMarple2

Live Monitor
@amlivemon
·
8m
You know What’s hilariously ironic? Besides the Fed, the next biggest Dollar bank is: Narco gangs in Mexico & Colombia

henry

Thread

@Tom_Maguire

@chasrmartin : Diamond Princess age-adjusted fatality rate for coronavirus was 1.2%.

wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/dia…

Now Chinese researchers offer a "symptomatic case fatality rate" of 1.4% for Wuhan (where public health system surely was overloaded.)

nature.com/articles/s4159…

https://twitter.com/tom_maguire/status/1240616433974943745?s=21

rse

Crisis gets used to push Human Devt Society Uncle Karl dreamed about as what he meant by little 'c' communism.

Much like the learning communities we serve, it has been inspiring to see how new partnerships are formed and how the redesign of current systems may serve our communities around the globe. From the new alignment of school systems to health care networks, as well as local and regional non-profits, new human-centered systems are forming to fill needs.

https://knowledgeworks.org/resources/resilience-empathy-equity-navigate-uncertain-future/ came out yesterday and fully supports the use of the pandemic I warned about in Monday post.

MissMarple2

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/bloomberg-coronavirus-trump-donation/

Bloomberg Is Spending $40 Million Combatting Coronavirus After Plowing $500 Million Into A Failed Anti-Trump White House Bid

MissMarple2

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/03/18/coronavirus-ford-gm-fiat-chrysler-shutting-down-u-s-factories/

rse

Pandemic's utility to destroy Privilege.

Katie King: We are seeing people make some sacrifices on behalf of others, and I wonder if this is an opportunity to shift our mindsets to lead us toward greater levels of educational equity and justice. Parents, communities and leaders often say they want equity, but we often behave in ways that perpetuate inequity and protect privilege. The system and the incentives are set up to promote that behavior. But if those of us with privilege were willing to sacrifice something, whether comfort, certainty, status or even something material, I believe that we all would gain a great deal more in well-being and could make way for more equitable outcomes. As a result of the event, a new foundation could form for new types of approaches to learning and to community building.

Jason Swanson: This has made me think about privilege. The virus lays bare a lot of the social and economic inequalities in our society. We need to think about how to maintain high quality learning in the face of disruption, which is something we explored in Navigating the Future of Learning. There is a need for education to develop some level of capacity with futures thinking about deep disruptions in terms of trends and other patterns of change, but to also future events like the one we’re experiencing now and what implications they might pose.

Virgel Hammonds: I wonder how the empathy and human-centeredness our world is displaying today may have an impact on our behaviors, systemic designs and outcomes in the future. May this pandemic help our world feel the systemic inequities that thrive in our current structures? May this global crisis inspire new, more inclusive structures that ensure the vibrancy of our communities? I believe so, I hope so; our children and families are counting on it.

The Infamous Ignatz

--If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year.--

That argument can only be made because heroic efforts are being made to stop it.
Doing nothing would look somewhat different. If we take the cruise ship 20% infection rate and a 2% fatality rate we end up with 1.3 million extra deaths this year and unknown number with long term lung damage.

Moreover the cruise ship example rather than being a high estimate is a low one. The initial exposure seems to have been fairly low with only a couple of initial infections. as soon as those were identified everyone was in lockdown and isolated. And because no one could go anywhere and they were closely monitored their outcomes were probably better than the general populations would have been.

So considering that, lets say the infection rate of an uncontrolled epidemic was at the low end of epidemiologists' guesses at 40% that's a couple of million dead people.
70%? at 1% 2+ million dead. At 2% 4+ million. And that doesn't take into account the damage to the seriously infected who survive or the destruction of our healthcare system. The hospitalization rate for this bug is vastly higher than the flu.
This IS NOT the flu.

Besides, aren't we the people who correctly worried about death panels and Barrycare and socialized medicine deciding old geezers weren't worth treating and weren't we just properly squawking about the ghoul Zeke Emmauel?
But now we write off a million or two old geezers cuz they were going to die of the flu or something else pretty soon anyway? I don't think even Zeke had plans that ambitious.

rse

Maria Romero: What I think about this situation changes rapidly. Some of the issues that I am grappling with now (at the moment I am writing this) are: the interdependence of our systems, the ripple effects of a pandemic and how widespread its effects have been and will be and the waves of policy measures needed to support not only the “average” or the “majority” but everyone. Amongst so many other things.

Policy measures needed to support everyone.

This is a very well connected group I am quoting from that ties to clinton's ed sec riley and his law firm that represents so many school districts and also ties to the Institute for the Future think tank.

henry

Lecture Privilege excepted.

MissMarple2

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/an-optimistic-take-on-covid-19.php

I am woefully ill-prepared to look at all of the numbers and per cents and such but here is one take that may offer some hope.

Neo

Report of 99 cent gasoline in Kentucky

Extraneus

O.J. Simpson Urges Golf Courses To Stay Open Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

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Wilson/Plame