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March 15, 2020



Reid and Rubin make no sense at all in that little spiteful conversation.

Contemptible people, those two twats!



Hey! Teachers! Leave those kids alone!


Indeed i noted psalm 90 in todays sermon it waa along with romans and other passages where issues are addressed


Our church has missionaries in austria italy occassionally venezuela


1st child here in MI with COVID-19, contact with another person who has it.

jim nj


That chart intuitively looks wrong to me. While they may be talking about "flattening" the curve I think that is being done so that common people can grasp the modus operandi being imposed simply.

The chart you showed seems to imply the same number of cases over differing time periods. A very quick run-up and then an equally steep decline or a more manageable run-up, with a lower overall amplitude and a long tail.

I think you would get a chart like that from mild dampening efforts without a viable test.

With a viable test the goal becomes finding and isolating every carrier as quickly as possible and isolating them to break the chain of possible un-checked new infections.

We would call that a quarantine as everybody understands the term, but we are also imposing a semi-quarantine on uninfected hosts to break the chain of infection from the other side of the equation.

With the test and isolation the rise in numbers will still be steep, with our late start on this, but not as steep as if unchecked. The amplitude of the spike should be lower. The descent from whatever peak should be equally steep with very little tail.

If all we wanted to do was "flatten" the curve we could do that with less draconian efforts. We're looking at trying to "kill-off" as many possible transmission routes as fast as we can.

Comments welcome. I always appreciate when some body has a better idea that sharpens my thinking.

The numbers for new cases hasn't accelerated over the weekend, percentage wise.
But a constant percentage rise is a classic exponential rise -- if the number of cases goes up by 10% per day, then over a series of days that's 1.1*1.1*1.1*etc. Or 1.1^n, where n is the number of days.

days 5 percent ten percent
1 1.05 1.1
10 1.63 2.59
20 2.65 6.73
30 4.32 17.45
40 7.04 45.26
50 11.47 117.39
60 18.68 304.48
70 30.43 789.75
80 49.56 2048.40
90 80.73 5313.02


Mayor just shut down LA. Bars, restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, bowling alleys. Graphic at link.


These are the emergency steps we are taking to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 & protect people across LA, effective at midnight tonight. This isn’t easy & I don't make this decision lightly. We will do everything we can to help businesses & workers impacted during this time.



Did they get that cholera epidemic under control over there, it was never followed up?

jim nj

de Blasio closed the NYC K-12 system today. No matter, the teachers union was going to close it for him anyway. Kids that got fed breakfast and lunch at school can still go to the school for the meals that will be handed to them outside the building. For the first week, and then...

The Bergen County (NJ) Executive has ordered all K-12 schools closed in the county.

It's like a race to the bottom to see who can come up with the most drastic measures. The creative one-upmenship becomes the newly adopted norm elsewhere.

I wonder if the red states are acting more rationally than the blue states.

Sifting through the news it's hard to tell if any state is acting rationally.


Well we havent such drastic action in red states with red governors that i can recall?


Jim nj,

You mentioned the possible police response to bar/restaurant closings last night. Many departments across the country, including all in my county, are foregoing custodial arrests in favor of issuing a summons in non-violent situations. This is an effort to protect those already in custody and jail staff.


The madness of crowds...


jim_nj -- the way that I understand it is that it IS all about lengthening the time. So in one city everyone gets infected, 20% need ventilators, they mostly get better, a few die, but then none of them are infected anymore. Move on to the next city, taking all of the ventilators from the first city where you don't need them anymore. Lather, rinse, repeat.

The problem is that if the cohorts are two weeks apart, and you are in cohort #10, you sit around prisoners in your homes for 20 weeks waiting, uninfected, twiddling your thumbs, until it's your turn to get infected. But I think that we've all starved to death by week 20...

I'm actually wondering "where do they go from here?" in China. Only the Wuhan cohort has any significant numbers of people with antibodies to the virus right now. A few tens of millions out of 1.4 billion Chinese. That number of people is LITERALLY in the rounding error of the Chinese population. If the authorities let up on the lockdown then the Wuhan folks can go back to work, but the virus will start multiplying exponentially somewhere else. And unless everybody but Wuhan goes on lockdown we will soon be in the same straits with the next few tens of millions in the next city to get heavily infected.

There's order-of-magnitude 8 billion humans on the planet. If we get infected in groups of a few tens of millions at a time, that's a VERY long time before we work all of the way through the whole world. Simply spreading out the infections over time doesn't work because it's not enough -- the disease has to mutate down to "bad flu" level, and/or we need some effective treatment and/or vaccine. If we are using the time to get the mutation/treatment/vaccine/etc then that could work. Simply flattening the curve so everyone still gets infected but over a longer time period doesn't solve the problem.


cathyf, don't sweat it.

Farr's curve.

It's a math thing...

jim nj

Typical, the FED announces rate cuts and a large infusion of liquidity.

Markets say, "Oh shit, they must know something we don't, it's worse than we thought.SELL."


Is TM "working" from home?
Perhaps boredom will cause a new thread to roll every 5 or 6 comments ...

Dave (in MA)
My 10 year old daughter repeated a phrase she heard on the bus (that they no doubt got at home) that had them giggling.

“Boomer Remover”.

You can’t grasp the evil in some people’s hearts.

From a guy I used to work with.

mike in houston

Northeast Ohio police department asks for all criminal activity to stop due to COVID-19

"Due to the coronavirus, the police department is asking that all criminal activities stop until further notice. Thank you for your anticipated cooperation in the matter. We will update you when we deem it’s appropriate to proceed with yo bad selves," the department said.



Mike, someone changed the name of the police department and posted it on our local NextDoor app.
Everyone had a good laugh ... makes you wonder why Dems are spending millions on convention security when they could just post a few "Gun Free Zone" placards.

jim nj


No the response is intended to wipe out any possible transmission of the virus in the US.

It will take time and may be unsuccessful, but if it does work it buys us time.

Think fighting wildfires. If they can't be contained you try to set back-fires and fire-breaks.

We've already lost containment of Covid-19 in the US. We're not trying to fight that fire only at the edges of the blaze any more. We're trying to remove combustible material in its path.

Personally I think the measures being imposed on the non-infected are too draconian, but if you stick with the firefighting analogy they want to prevent a wide spread of the blaze and only have to worry about random sparks falling in sparse territory.

jim nj


Smart. Issuing summonses or court appearance citations when incarceration isn't needed is the way to go.

The top NJ assignment judge has halted all new jury trials. Hundreds of juror candidates in each of our 21 counties won't have to congregate.


These are the numbers from my county. Probably lots of county health departments are creating pages like this.

COVID-19 Cases in Santa Clara County as of 5:00 p.m. on March 14​, 2020.
Total Confirmed Cases 114
Hospitalized 48
Deaths 2
International Travel Associated 15
Close Contacts of Known Cases 28
Presumed Community Transmission 52

Not apples/apples, of course, but here are estimated numbers for normal flu, for the whole nation, for the whole season Oct 1 to Feb 29


jim_nj, the writers say there will be some reduction is n the number of cases, but only 10-15%. The idea is that ultimately what causes an outbreak to die down is enough people getting exposed and acquiring immunity. That can happen in 4 weeks or 12 weeks or 20 weeks. There might be other factors that would lower the numbers some in the 20 week case, like warmer weather, development of vaccines, etc. But mainly it just has to burn itself out, and to some extent the faster the better, at least for minimizing the economic damage.

I’m surprised no one has suggested that’s the reason Dems and Blue states are so focused on flattening the curve: inflict as much damage as possible on Trump with no recovery before November. Ok now I’ll remove my tin foil hat so I can get some sleep.


Left out the "normal" flu link.


I’d just add that I’d like that view to be out there and addressed, even if it turns out to be wrong. Now it seems to be unspeakable, akin to denying climate change. Meanwhile, maybe Rs are walking right into a trap. Wouldn’t be the first time.



jim nj

Johns Hopkins shows 3,774 total US Covid-19 cases, an increase of 823 over the prior day, less than my forecast of ~1,000 for a 27% increase over the prior day. That's down from the 35% increase the prior day.

Not enough data to call a trend. Prior daily percent changes were 40, 32, 28, 26, 30, and 35. Wild guess is that it will average out into the high 20's, more or less, as we move forward.

The testing criteria were loosened, but looser testing criteria are still in place. So the people being tested are still the ones most likely to see a positive test result. They may still be husbanding relatively scarce test kits.

People who think they are infected may be demanding access to testing, but the proper response to me is, well then isolate yourself until we can arrange the test because, whatever you think, you are still a lower priority.

If you test positive we will require that you isolate yourself so do it voluntarily now.

I would want iffy people to wait to get the test so we don't get false negatives and two days later have these same people in circulation spewing infections.

jim nj


I understand what you are saying and what you are reading. In the normal course of a virus sweeping through a nation we rely on it just running out of victims. The transmission of the virus creates its own defense mechanism. People are exposed, get ill, die, recover, whatever, but enough people get an acquired immunity that makes the further spread of the virus very difficult.

The plan, or hope, here is that with a drastic draconian effort we can stop the transmission mechanism even faster.

Then we have to watch out for new outbreaks in those who haven't acquired immunity.

The transmission mechanism may kick in again at any time since most people still have not acquired the needed antibodies.

If we can stop it, the first cohort of victims allow us to experiment with treatments, maybe find effective treatments or vaccines so that a recurrent outbreak will be less severe.

If the thinking is to break the cycle as quickly as possible, than the draconian measures, even though I don't like them, make sense.

If the above paragraph is not true, these imposed measures are stupid for what they will do to the economy.

And I sympathize with the federal people who have tried to design this strategy when they are working with faulty data from overseas.

China set back our response. The CDC set back our response. Europe set back our response. We should have put up a European travel ban sooner.

I expect when we get a look back that the west coast infections are attributable to China and the east coast infections are attributable to Americans and Europeans returning to or visiting the US.


I want to be an airborne virus!

(I want to be an airborne virus!)

I want to make the Chinese minus!

(I want to make the Chinese minus!)

jim nj


A fake front group so Hezbollah can disclaim responsibility for the rocket attacks.


Well, I don't know about that. I haven't seen any reports of retaliatory airstrikes yet. Maybe the "coalition" is still working up a target package in Iraq.

There are reports that some US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq. Maybe we should move the remainders to bases in in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Maybe the solution is no longer military, but to allow the Iranians to run rampant in Iraq and infect the whole southern portion of the country.



Homeschooling may get a nice boost, at least.


I hear they’re changing the NYSE’s opening bell into a klaxon.


How did people get through past plagues without memes?



Good morning, anonamom!

That's a good graphic!


Donald J. Trump
I must say, that was a VERY boring debate. Biden lied when he said I want to cut Social Security and Medicare. That’s what they ALL said 4 years ago, and nothing happened, in fact, I saved Social Security and Medicare. I will not be cutting, but they will. Be careful!


Brian Cornell, @Target: "Thank you for inviting us here today, along with our colleagues from Walmart and Walgreens and our partners at CVS. Normally, you’d view us as competitors, but today we're focused on a common competitor—and that's defeating the spread of the Coronavirus.” pic.twitter.com/4HFiAbrPwv

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 15, 2020

Video at link. 45 seconds
Hurricane Watcher

(Text WOKE to 88022)
These private sector execs are showing more competence and care for Americans than Democrat politicians are.

Which is not surprising.


James Woods
Meanwhile the forgotten souls, the homeless of Los Angeles, will be ravaged by this virus, and all 65,000 of them are certainly not going to “self-quarantine.” Any plans to help them, Mr. Mayor? Because when they get sick, eventually you and your millionaire buddies will, too...


Tim Hogan

Wow. MGM temporarily closing Las Vegas properties starting March 17th:

Mandalay Bay
MGM Grand
New York New York
Park MGM



jim nj

bubarooni did you post the "Farr's Law" link?

I'm reading it now and found this which seems to reflect what I was thinking.

"This two-parameter model, which we have referred to as the “Incidence Decay with Exponential Adjustment” (IDEA) model, offers advantages of simplicity, explicit linkage to theory of epidemic growth, and also acknowledges the fact that epidemics and outbreaks do not peak and end simply due to depletion of susceptibles, but because of a complex constellation of public health actions and behavioral changes that may modify the course of an epidemic and reduce the effective reproduction number [Math Processing Error] during an outbreak."

That's a fancy way of saying that one doesn't have to wait for a virus to run its normal course of using up new hosts, but that interventions and changes in behavior can shorten that cycle.



This is rather dense and I'm probably over-simplifying, but it suggests an analogy with "climate science" you can build a model of how a virus will propagate that is scientifically valid, that fails to capture the interventions and behavioral changes that make the model no longer valid.

Here I'll go completely beyond my understanding, but it implies that R0, the transmission rate, or infection rate, is not a constant.

So you need to know how many people are infected and the R0 to build a model of a virus running in the wild. You will generate a large number of cases and be wrong because R0 is not a constant and you have failed to account for "super-spreaders." Your large number will be wrong. The "super-spreaders" will create an even worse contagion.

Restart the model. R0 is not a constant. You have to account for "super-spreaders." Now you have to account for the other variables too. Find the spreaders, normal or super, and take them out of the "wild." Reduce the unrestricted growth in cases. Now add in a dispersion factor for the potential hosts now in "hiding." Try to account for all of the other variables that an interventionist regime might throw at you. R0 is no longer a constant. It can be degraded. With sufficient impediments thrown against it the R0 of the virus approaches zero.

In plainer English you can take a constant value and throw enough at it to oppose it and turn its constant value into a variable one that approaches and then reaches zero.

End of transmission of new cases.

Comments welcome. I hope I am right that we are exchanging pain for a virus snuff film.

If not, it's really not worth tanking the economy. It would be a lot cheaper to just safeguard the elderly and the impaired and let the healthy people build up the "herd immunity."


ABC News
#BREAKING: The WA Government has frozen all household fees and charges including electricity, water, public transport fares and motor vehicle charges.



Text message rumors of a national #quarantine are FAKE. There is no national lockdown. @CDCgov
has and will continue to post the latest guidance on #COVID19. #coronavirus

jim nj

typhus pad is finicky tonight. amazing how many different error messages it was able to create during a half hour of trying to post that last.
i'm not sure, but one of them might have been do you really want to reveal your ignorance?

well, no, but it took forever to grasp that article and try to translate it. i mean if i'm wrong, i at least spent a lot of time on getting there.

so i'm writing e. e. cummings style if typhuspad was just choking on the capital letters.



Saudi Arabia on Sunday announced the detention of hundreds of government officials, including military and security officers, on charges involving bribery and exploiting public office, and said investigators would bring charges against them.


Retweeted by the President. Video at the link.

Joe Biden is a train wreck on illegal immigration and would harm national security.

He’d have ZERO deportations for the first 100 days INCLUDING CRIMINALS and after that deport only felons.

Trashes the rule of law and makes us less safe.


— Brad Parscale - Text TRUMP to 88022 (@parscale) March 16, 2020

Retweeted by the President. Murtaugh is the Director of Communications for the Trump Campaign.

Tim Murtaugh - Text TRUMP to 88022
Joe Biden would set an extreme and dangerous course on illegal immigration.

Wouldn’t deport anyone except convicted felons.

Says local police should not cooperate with ICE.

In Biden’s America, EVERY city is a sanctuary city.


Retweeted by the President. Video at the link.

Sleepy Joe is SO CONFUSED. Joe has...

- Called the coronavirus “SARS”

- Called the coronavirus the “swine flu”

- Called the H1N1 virus the "N1H1"

- Forgot the name of the Ebola virus, describing it as “what happened in Africa”

Joe is SO LOST!pic.twitter.com/nDKvztN6yf

— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) March 16, 2020



They found that viable coronavirus could be detected up to three hours later in the air, four hours on copper, 24 hours on cardboard and three days on plastic and stainless steel.




You are NOT safe if you are younger! This story is about a 45-year old who thought he just had the flu, and now he's on a ventilator.



Go outside.



This also outlines progress of the virus here, and NCAA Final Four restrictions.


Good Morning!

I have to go to the doctor this morning, so apparently we aren’t all that concerned in Florida about CV. And tomorrow we vote - and I would never miss going in and renewing my love for our President.’



A commonly-used arthritis drug seems to be effective in treating the coronavirus.

jim nj


"In a setback for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's president said Sunday he will give centrist retired army general Benny Gantz the first chance to try to form a new government following this month's inconclusive elections.

Gantz was tapped after a majority of 61 lawmakers in the 120-member Parliament told President Reuven Rivlin they support Gantz over Netanyahu. A coalition of Arab parties, including a staunchly Palestinian nationalist faction, decisively helped tip the scales by unanimously endorsing Gantz."

"Gantz could unseat Netanyahu by building a minority government dependent on Arab parties, but it would be an unstable coalition and would draw fierce opposition from the right-wing Netanyahu, who calls the Arab parties terror sympathizers.

"While Prime Minister Netanyahu is handling an unprecedented global and national crisis in the most responsible and measured way," Netanyahu's Likud party said in a statement, "Gantz is rushing to a minority government dependent on ... terror supporters instead of joining a national emergency government that will save lives."

That alliance between Gantz and at least two of the Arab party members looks really odd.



Filing class action lawsuit.



He was with male escort because he was depressed.


Steve Hayward announced that for now he will be posting TWIP 3 times a week



Victor Davis Hanson

Captain Hate

Meanwhile, maybe Rs are walking right into a trap. Wouldn’t be the first time.

We're gonna shoot lots of those snipe if we ever find 'em...

jim nj


Yes, let's work on income inequality by impoverishing Hollywood.




What is all 3 top contenders get the virus?

Captain Hate

The Yellow Horde continues to lie




I wasn't aware Newsmax had a cable news station, since we didn't get cable when we moved in here.

This is an interesting article.

Captain Hate

If Newsmax tv is anything like their email system, which I dropped, they probably run irritating infomercials constantly.


Like taters understudy



This isnt cnn:



email from a doctor--who has great faith in Dr Fauci adds this tip:"Ibuprofen, and by extension, all non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID’s) appear to be contraindicated and may make the virus more likely to damage lungs. If you feel the need for pain medication or
to treat fever with medication, use acetaminophen, Tylenol.

Vitamin D has been shown to help humans ward off respiratory tract infections."


Based on what evidence?


This was for Australia. The poster didn't make it clear.

ABC News

#BREAKING: The WA Government has frozen all household fees and charges including electricity, water, public transport fares and motor vehicle charges.
1:37 AM · Mar 16, 2020·


New Orleans Police clear crowds from Bourbon Street amid #COVIDー19 . pic.twitter.com/8ydePMWOWX

— Alex Salvi (@alexsalvinews) March 16, 2020

Video at link.


I think Anonamom has been pushing vitamin D from the onset, Clarice. Who knew she was a pusher?

Have you got a lot of cases in DC, Clarice?


Just heard from our insurance administrator, the zero cost to enrollees for Covid19 testing is rolling out. (Which for self insured comes out of company funds).


No, Jane. Not that I know of.


Good Morning! The kick-off event for the 200th anniversary of Maine's statehood was cancelled yesterday. Festivities are planned throughout the year. Maine's separation from Massachusetts is something to celebrate! :)
Florida hasn't announced any closures that I've heard about. The local schools are already on spring break. I mentioned yesterday that there are lots of people out in stores and restaurants.


It's an ill wind..https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/03/isis-advises-healthy-jihadis-to-avoid-europe-due-to-coronavirus/?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=9bf94214-4bae-4674-85dc-101f52138b46


I am convinced that this is being pushed to panic levels by the media. They are being irresponsible, judging from what I am seeing on Twitter.

Just read an anonymous report from a supposed ER doctor in San Francisco, and it was nothing but fear-mongering, "we are all doomed", "our leaders don't know how to handle this" crap.

This was linked by a theater critic from San Francisco with obvious political motivation.

Captain Hate

Has DeRINO shut down mass transit like he did restaurants and bars because crowds are bad?


Here is a thread documenting a thread of panic-inducing misinformation which was subsequently deleted, but not after getting a bunch of people scared. Very similar to the thread I read earlier.



Or as they call it over there, a simoon.


WATCH: My latest #COVID19 update.

Coronavirus is here in the U.S. Please watch the video below to learn how we can be smart about this. pic.twitter.com/X0sKZTHnXB

— Greg Murphy (@RepGregMurphy) March 15, 2020

Video at the link. Representative Murphy is a doctor.


Sorry about that



Well they got rid of the helmets but otherwise



Underreported from last week:



Donald J. Trump
God Bless the USA!


Waiting for confirmation


BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Health and Human Services Department suffered a cyber-attack on its computer system Sunday night.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--But a constant percentage rise is a classic exponential rise --

But if you'd read the rest of the sentence you quoted the percentage rise is declining, as it has in virtually every country I've looked at.

A drop of 5 or 15% seems far too small for social distancing and quarantining.
There seems to be this idea that if a virus enters the country we are all instantly walking through this vast cloud of bugs and most of us are doomed to get it.
That becomes figuratively true if no steps are taken to contain it.
However in a population of 330,000,000 with still under 4000 cases there are very limited pockets of the bug that will slowly diminish and eventually disappear if we maintain the separation for the few weeks it takes to allow this tale place. It will of course flair up now and again but with testing becoming ubiquitous the idea the incidence will only be limited by 5-10% seems unrealistic to be charitable.
I know those aren't jimmy's numbers and the idea should be looked at it, but it doesn't seem to make sense or take into account the nature of the beast nor the effects, as jimnj noted, of limiting its transmission.



Bill and Melinda Gates, Theranos, Clinton Foundation, etc. Very interesting thread by a retired cop.


Smoothing the curve also gives time for the antibody/vaccine event horizon to approach with the least damage.

Multivariates involved.


Two ER doctors now positive.



John Solomon

A reminder that National Guard could soon be on front lines of pandemic. Multiple states activate troops to help fight coronavirus



The roads in Florida are like summer today. No one out there. It’s great


Doesn't toilet paper come wrapped in one-time-use plastic?
Advise friends in Canada to consider stocking up ...

Ottawa set to declare plastics as toxic substance
The federal government intends to designate plastics as toxic substances, a move industry stakeholders say is unduly aggressive and detrimental to the sector’s brand.
Listing plastics as toxic under Schedule 1 of the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) will provide the government with the authority to regulate and limit certain products. The Liberals campaigned during the fall election on a promise to ban some single-use plastics as early as 2021, as part of a national strategy to reduce waste and pollution. In a minority parliament, it is considered more expedient for the government to use the existing act than to curry multiparty support for new legislation regulating plastics


Jane,no school lessens the traffic. I haven't had my hair on fire,but hearing about possible suspension of interstate travel has me worried. We have to drive thru 10 states to get back to Maine! Jane,if we're here all summer,plan on daily cocktail hours! :)


Oh good Marlene, once you get used to the heat, you’ll love it. What’s the talk about banning interstate travel? Only W. VA should be allowed to do that.

Market looks like another crash. Time to buy Amazon?


We saw quite a few Canadian license plates heading north on I-75 the other day. They have to time their stay in Florida to 90 days,I think. The time limit has something to do with eligibility for their *free* health insurance.Hubby has a Canadian kayak buddy who already returned to Canada. His wife has major health issues and wants to be treated in Canada. They left before the panic.


Who would have imagined empty toilet paper shelves? At this point,anything could happen,including severe travel limits.


Harvard University Professor and Two Chinese Nationals Charged in Three Separate China Related Cases

When this charge came out there were a number of stories about how this would have a "chilling effect" on scientific research.

Since the professor was charged only with making false statements, you really have to wonder how much research is fraud.


Global Times
#Breaking: Egypt annonuced suspension of all flights over #coronavirus outbreak, starting Thursday and till March 31: report



Time to buy Amazon?

Heh. That's what I thought ~150 points ago.

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