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April 11, 2020


Captain Hate

That poll is really dumb.


We're supposed to ignore the wuhan institure of virology and dr peng zhu? Or fmr minister of defense chao haotians subjects on biological warfare.No wonder ballard called it phew research


Yes. That poll is really, really dumb.


My vote is for lab accident and has been for some time.

Gus, I'm so sorry for all of your family at this difficult time.


God knows the eu was no help



Deja vu


Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

MJW as usual last thread is correct.
Interesting info [to me] on how retroviruses are RNA viruses but are kind of an intermediate form.

An RNA virus is a virus that has RNA (ribonucleic acid) as its genetic material.[1] This nucleic acid is usually single-stranded RNA (ssRNA) but may be double-stranded RNA (dsRNA).[2] Notable human diseases caused by RNA viruses include Ebola virus disease, SARS, COVID-19, rabies, common cold, influenza, hepatitis C, hepatitis E, West Nile fever, polio and measles.

The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) classifies RNA viruses as those that belong to Group III, Group IV or Group V of the Baltimore classification system of classifying viruses and does not consider viruses with DNA intermediates in their life cycle as RNA viruses.[3] Viruses with RNA as their genetic material which also include DNA intermediates in their replication cycle are called retroviruses, and comprise Group VI of the Baltimore classification. Notable human retroviruses include HIV-1 and HIV-2, the cause of the disease AIDS.

Another term for RNA viruses that explicitly excludes retroviruses is ribovirus.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

GUS, Sorry about your mother in law and sorry for your pooch too, MM.
Can only get your heart broken if you give it to others.


Clarice, thank you so much for your love and prayers. You are always in my prayers, and I think you are wonderful.
Ignatz, thank you sir. I realize that you have been thru heartbreak and I have prayed and actually shed tears for you. Thank you Ig, you are truly and inspiration.

Another Bob

The poll is moronic. Does someone commission these things? Who?

Knowing nothing about virology, I’ve wondered how it’s established with confidence it wasn’t manufactured.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--I thought I read that there's no SARS 1 vaccine because once the pandemic subsided so completely, they research on it was abandoned.--

You may have read that elsewhere. I don't know if I have. But I did speculate on it here.

However, subsequently it seems like there has been a lot more SARS activity than I realized, as their concerns for its reappearance both in China and elsewhere has been pretty high.
So perhaps it was more than just disinterest that was the problem.


This seems to be shadow banned


Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--“I was myself skeptical at the beginning and I kept flipping back and forth,” Andersen says, but he’s now convinced. “All the data show it’s natural.”--

Until the next equally authoritative guy looks at the same data and says "could very possibly have been created in a lab" and 13 years later it finally gets figured out definitively and explained in some obscure journal nobody reads.

Captain Hate

Can only get your heart broken if you give it to others.

Bingo. Always stay optimistic no matter the temporary downside. Easter is a time of hope and we will get through this.


This was the trail that got chris blackburn focused on mifsud, and manafort



And the isi and saudi intelligence


This was as big in south asia and sadats assasination was in egypt.


Or, at least, reduce ...


The nonsese, is profound. Our Expert have come to believe XY or Z. They didn't have any NOTION of utter CRAP, Until NOW

jim nj


That subway photo was probably accurate. The local TV stations have been running segments on the over-crowding.

Lots of MTA people are out sick so fewer buses and trains are running than usual.

Most of the reports speak of sporadic crowding.


Captain Hate

Happy Easter all, at least in this time zone.


Their priorities are striking:



I made a spreadsheet based on the Covid Tracking Project. In order to alleviate some of the problems with the deaths being counted more on some days of the week, I have a column of the weekly totals; that is the deaths for the last seven days. (It's equivalent to a seven-day running average, multiplied by seven.)

Another column is the ratio of each day's weekly total, divided by the weekly total from the same day on the previous week: the week-to-week change.

Finally, I have a column of the day-to-day ratios of the previously described weekly ratios; that is, each day's weekly ratio divided by the previous day's weekly ratio.

Interestingly, for the last nine days, the values in the last column have been quite constant, near 0.9 to 0.91.

They are (backward from today): 0.89, 0.92, 0.89, 0.90, 0.92, 0.88, 0.93,0.90, 0.90

If that trend continues, it can be used to estimate next week's deaths. Using the more conservative value of 0.91 gives 11,586 deaths through next Saturday's weekly total. That's slightly down from this week's 11,960.

If the trend continues for the following weeks, the total deaths would be slightly less than 40,000. Assuming we're at the peak, that fits with the rule of thumb that there are about as many deaths before the peak as after.

It's all probably meaningless numerology, but I found it interesting.


But they dont contextualize the data



Happy Easter, CH--I hate to bring this up but you definitely seem to be softening up and losing your revolutionary fervor lately. (XO)


Hes a lovable fuzzball at heart clarice.

Captain Hate

The lull before the storm.




Also trying to keep the promise against invective


jim_NJ, there may occasionally be a crowded car if there's a delay, but the article did say "Ridership on the subways Monday was down 92% compared to a normal weekday." Even with some service cuts, crowds like that picture have to be the rare exception. But as I say, I don't have first-hand knowledge, I just hear from my lab worker friend who commutes to Manhattan from Brooklyn in rush hour, and says the trains are pretty empty and still run frequently.


Well there's one relevant conspiracy that isn't just a theory. The Communist government of China withheld information on the lethal spread of this virus until it was too late to prevent its spread throughout the world.

I've always tried to avoid a belief in the "conspiracy theory of history", but in this case I have to make an exception. The timing and impact of this incident are just too suspicious to dismiss.


barbara, I think the CCP treated the world with the same disregard as it treats its people.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--It's all probably meaningless numerology--

What else is there to do? :)


I think michael pillsburys theme about chinas deep resentment against thr west capitulated in the 100 year mace, explains part of this. From the opium war to the fall of chiang kai shek.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--I've always tried to avoid a belief in the "conspiracy theory of history"--

A conspiracy theory is a belief in a possible conspiracy that is either hidden or non existent.

A conspiracy that is laid out right in the open for everyone to look at is, well, a conspiracy.


The former had been the operating theory of what has passed for journalism these last four years.

The latter is what weve seen for the last four months


Gus, I am so sorry about your wife's mother. Your family will be in our prayers this Easter.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

I'm gonna use a few terms that the insufferable ivory tower imbeciles would consider retrograde and racist, but, the Oriental concept of "face" is at its essence a form of insecurity and pride. Those two inextricably linked vices are responsible for much if not most individual and societial miseries.
Much of Asian culture is in need of a shrink, or at least a Dr Phil book.

mike in houston

Easter arrives in a country built on leaps of faith



This notion of an 'honor culture' can go too far, without moderation as weve seen in the proximate region to china.


Gus, I am so very sorry to hear about your mother-in-law. I will be praying for all of you and for Sue. I know having you as her support will be a great comfort for your dear wife.

mike in houston

And now for my favorite hymn. I remember growing up, this was always the processional hymn at St. Marks in New Canaan, CT. And, some of my HS buddies seemed to be inspired when they played the trumpet parts.


jim nj


I don't have first-hand knowledge of the subways either. I do know that somebody made an issue of it and it was broadcast on TV. deBlasio pontificated that it had to be fixed. Of course he doesn't control the MTA so he can fling poo and take credit for demanding a fix.

In today's media environment all you would need would be 2-5 iPhone video clips of a crowded car to make it seem as if every car on every train was like that.

All us poor people being oppressed.


Our school district announced today that for the second half of the year they will abandon grades and go with a Credit/NoCredit system

Studious kids hardest hit.
Our youngest, nursing a precarious C in math, is pretty joyful.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

May have been linked earlier;
Bjorn Lomborg; Save Lives And Avoid A Catastrophic Recession

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

It's Resurrection Day for precarious Cs Jim. :)



Do NOT diminish the giving and taking of Face. It’s generational in learning and has soooo many degrees of administration, that I couldn’t begin to explain. Understanding the gift of face is a great, primary step. It is strategic, from both sides.

Hugely important tool set.

And it was wielded in the Spring of 2017 to its finest.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Well, the US crossed 500,000 cases but new case growth was only 6.4%, the lowest since late February.
New cases declined by absolute numbers for the second day in a row.
And deaths declined below 2000 from yesterdays hoped for peak.

All those are provisional numbers from wikipedia.


Zhu ronghi must be very cross with xi, what mess did you get us involved with the foreigners


Thats good news:


Informing this mornings bulletin

Another Bob

“Face” is a tool to create and preserve harmony.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Sure it's hugely important, and complex and it's not all bad in those aspects of respect sought and given, especially between generations.
But lots of overall destructive cultural defects have positive attributes. [As the right honorable Dinkus Clyburn noted even slavery gave black people full employment.]
Those defects are most usually harmful when they collide with other cultures.

Another Bob

Used to paper over issues of pride and insecurity.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

"Face" is often a tool to create and preserve the harmony of conformity and collective submission.
It's a very large part of the reason China has been semi-free for approximately 30 years of its several thousand year long history.


From 1912-1949, loosely defined, the time of the republic the warlords and chiang kai shek.


Fwiw cuba had a similar interval that ran about 50 years from 1902-1959.

jim nj


Call It a Ponzi Scheme
Even during the Covid-19 crisis, colleges abuse their economic and reputational privileges.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Doubts about basic assumption for the universe


That is fascinating, then again weve known till now why would expect uniformity.

jim nj


After failing to censor President Trump's press conferences, media are working on a new plan of pressuring him to remove himself from his press conferences.

I noticed this quackery today.

Ralph L

I believe he's wasting his time doing it every day.


Has to try to catch up to the lies, maybe when it starts settling down.


A blessed Easter to my Christian friends:


Wesley almost is canonical. :)

jim nj

Worldometer look see

Total US cases 533,115, new cases 30,239, %change 6%, deaths 20,580, recovered 30,502.

They brought back the case analysis from before:
(470,562) 98% mild, (11,471) 2% serious or critical

I don't know how they derive these numbers, but they seem to match what covidtracking is showing for ICU or ventilator use. Just being hospitalized doesn't strike me as serious or critical.

I hope it indicates that the increased testing is finding large numbers of mild cases that won't track the same as the earlier cases.

It might be what some of us were already thinking. A "quiet" spread with little to no symptoms until it hit more vulnerable people. Then a sudden spurt in very serious cases emerging quickly with the testing regime strained. Now with a looser testing regime and more tests available we have discovered ~200,000 more cases in one week's time. But hospitalizations, ICU and ventilator stats have stabilized or are going down. Now, perhaps, this is a new "quiet" cohort that will cause us to re-evaluate the fatality rate.

date total cases new cases %change
4/8 435,160 34,620 +8.6%
4/9 468,895 33,735 +7.7
4/10 502,876 33,981 +6.7%
4/11 533,115 30,239 +6%

A lower absolute number and a lower %change.

NY % of all cases 33.9%, NJ 10.9%, about the same as the last few days.


read your comment Gus about your mother-in-law. my prayers to you and your family.


a good morning and a blessed easter.

jim nj

I lost the sheet of paper where I was tracking NY and NJ cases. What I remember though is that the NYC area epicenter fell below 50% of all cases about two weeks ago and has slowly moved down to about 44.8% for today.

So more cases have been found outside of the epicenter for some time now, but not enough to seriously dent the epicenter numbers.

So we have other hot-spots, some of them showing large state-wide numbers that may only reflect, say, a county issue, that aren't outpacing the NYC area by enough to shift the statistical balance.

That sounds like a repeat of the NYC area experience with fewer complicating issues like density or mass transit on NYC's scale.

A "quiet" spread, then a blip of serious cases and a reason to test bigger. More new cases found, but probably milder. I hope.

I think, so far, the only really useful information we got from looking at China and Italy was that we were able to discern who was at the most risk. The old and infirm.

I have complained that we haven't done a good job, in many cases, of protecting our long-term care facilities.

Based mostly on the Washington State experience we did lock down those facilities. If we hadn't, even with some failures, the number of deaths would be a lot higher today.


>>>I've always tried to avoid a belief in the "conspiracy theory of history", but in this case I have to make an exception. The timing and impact of this incident are just too suspicious to dismiss.

Posted by: Barbara | April 12, 2020 at 12:43 AM<<<

not a conspiracy theory. the ccp-who said to the world everything is ok and significant portions of the health bureaucracy spent weeks virtue signaling and believing the lies.

now they are burning down the businesses and livelihoods of tens of millions because they can.


big surprise that i'd be in the comments at 4 am unable to get back to sleep.


1985: The Handmaid’s Tale

2020: The Nursemaid’s Tale

jim nj


Read this.


listening to Handel's Messiah


my rant might have to wait until monday.

jim nj

Long conversation with my girlfriend about the coronavirus catching her up with what I've been learning by reading.

We've obviously talked about this before, but we were going back and forth in detail and it occurred to us that we may have already been exposed to it.

7-8 weeks ago she was feeling yucky and one day she just couldn't get out of bed for 24 hours. I was reminded of that and she thought, at the time, that she might have had the flu.

I've had a runny nose since December, so my tissue use is a useless indicator, but after she got sick I had some indications.

A tightness in my chest and shallower breathing that I tried to alleviate by stretching muscles thinking it was due to inactivity. And a concurrent frog in my throat that made swallowing uncomfortable. I assumed it was post-nasal drip from the runny nose. Now I'm not so sure. That disappeared recently.

I don't know if we managed to talk each other into believing we were exposed, but the symptoms, in hindsight, were rather odd and real.

If they offer an antibody test in my area I'll volunteer.

jim nj

"my rant might have to wait until monday."

Monday should be capitalized. Never mind.

I was looking forward to a rant, Rich, you do them really well.

Now you're doing the Batman thing? Tune in again, same Bat time, same Bat channel as before. Rather WhuFlu of you :)


but looking at the progressive invasion on that ted cruz tweet think i'll rant a bit ...

the first cases of the china virus in the us were detected from people that had been in wuhan the previous weeks ... the most serious were chicago and seattle just prior to the chinese new year.

january 23rd the chinese authorities locked down wuhan and who issued notices about the virus.

january 25 our betters made sure millions of people in europe and the us virtue signaled and got out to celebrate the chinese new year. much better to infect millions than to be seen as racist (something about sensible conclusions)

january 31 the first travel restrictions were put into place.

and here we are ... us authorities at the local, state, and federal level are preventing people from attending church during holy week; pestering people minding their own business; and our neighbors are pestering us about wearing a mask or going to work (and never mind i never thought in a million years i'd need papers about going to and from work).


Posted by: jim nj | April 12, 2020 at 04:29 AM

thanks, should i be proud of my rants?

trying to remember the date of the guidance from the who stating the sars-cov-2 wasn't communicable (people have been posting the notice on twitter but trying a search that bit of failure has been memory holed).


I had wondered when it would come to this: states possibly sending police or National Guard members to meet medical shipments, in order to stop federal authorities from seizing them on arrival.

Dangerous waters, these. washingtonpost.com/politics/as-fe…



seems all the usual suspects are out to re-write history.

note-to-self: don't read twitter threads.


Let yourself be troubled Sean Hannity:



seems like the nyt has a piece up about the timeline to catastrophe ...

wonder if they'll give us the steady diet of "science bitches" and "travel bans won't keep the virus out" until they install a dem into office.



There was a clause in the trade agreement letting them out of some stipulations in the event of a pandemic.

jim nj


You rant well. They're always good. No need to hold back.

I've seen the timelines multiple times now and January 14 is probably the date you're looking for.

Let me look at Wiki.

14 January

WHO sent a tweet which said "preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China".[93]

On 14 January, two of the 41 confirmed cases in Wuhan were reported to include a married couple, raising the possibility of human-to-human transmission.[91][94]

On 14 January, Maria Van Kerkhove, acting head of WHO's emerging diseases unit said that there had been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus, mainly small clusters in families, adding that "it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission"[95][96]


So, yes in the US visit the Chinese New Year celebrations in NYC and SF as there is no risk. In Italy it was hug a Chinaman around the same time.



this was yesterday and must have missed it ... wow.

opening paragraphs

>>>A week after the first coronavirus case had been identified in the United States, and six long weeks before President Trump finally took aggressive action to confront the danger the nation was facing — a pandemic that is now forecast to take tens of thousands of American lives — Dr. Mecher was urging the upper ranks of the nation’s public health bureaucracy to wake up and prepare for the possibility of far more drastic action.<<<

the senate impeachment votes were feb 5th.

trump was criticized from all quarters for the travel inconveniences put into place jan 31.

let us not trouble ourselves with the failures of state and local governments when it is much more important to sack the administration.



Your gal pal is Korean, right? Do they go crazy for mayonnaise?


Posted by: jim nj | April 12, 2020 at 05:12 AM

looks like the initial outbreaks here were chinese students returning from home to start classes; then travel from iran and italy; then we started getting person to person here domestically.

then it breached the nursing homes.

but i'm anti-science.



the one in SF was feb 8th-9th, maybe it was more subdued as the crisis was starting to look like a crisis by that point.


the road to health is being pestered to stay indoors and poverty ... let's just shut everything down and turn out the lights.

jim nj


I misread this as Nitrous Oxide at first.


Morning guys.

Happy Easter!

Somehow I’ve managed to get my sleeping rhythm locked into 10:00pm to 5:00am.

I’m even up before the birds start singing:)

jim nj


I think they first caught it here in Seattle and Chicago. It was probably here before then.

China locked down Wuhan and Hubei provinces, but allowed flights out of their airport for many days to Iran, Italy and who knows where else.

If we had gotten a decent heads up from WHO we might have had a more unified strategy here earlier. I kinda doubt that attending Chinese New Year's events here made much difference, unless there were Wuhan visitors present.


happy easter buckeye.


I kinda doubt that attending Chinese New Year's events here made much difference, unless there were Wuhan visitors present.

If the press was the least bit useful, they would be investigating these possibilities and reporting.

Same with hydroxychloroquine effectiveness.

They don’t seem to be able to get past orange man bad.

jim nj


Your gal pal is Korean, right? Do they go crazy for mayonnaise?
Pin, Are you kidding? I can't speak for all Korean-Americans. Yes, she uses mayonnaise. Is she crazy for it? I doubt it, considering all the other spices, sauces and stuff she buys.


Posted by: jim nj | April 12, 2020 at 05:54 AM

parades of a couple hundred thousand people were probably a bad idea at the start of an outbreak especially parades celebrating the geographic region the outbreak actually started.

just saying.

the irish couldn't have st patrick's day celebrations and i'll pencil in the colossally bad idea it was to have mardi gras too.

it is what it is at this point.

we got lectured to when we started to take action that it was stupid and racist to do so and now that the public health blob has demoed the world economy we're being lectured to that we are not doing enough or not doing it right or not taking it seriously.

but at least we have about 17 million now unemployed and a 2.2 trillion dollar relief law that appears wasn't enough.

and the nyt is making sure the deepstate penthouse forum letter lets us all know "they might not be right, but they are never wrong".


i'm going to step away from the computer

moonlight sonata



jim nj


At this point it looks like all of the conspiracy going on in the US is among the press trying to justify why orange-man bad.

He was first a racist who acted too fast and now he has ignored repeated warnings from his advisors.

The press is still flogging hydroxycloroquine as dangerous.

Alternate news sources are doing a much better job of reporting what is really happening.



Tonight I had what I considered to be a Korean girl named Shekinah worrying me to death about some mayonnaise.


Almost overnight in stores all across our nation,,,plexiglass barricades and social distancing stickers were installed...
Social distancing announcements played intercom systems...
Those of us that are awake know that they could not of gotten this done without long prior planning



So sorry to learn about the loss of your MIL. Our thoughts & prayers go out to you & your family. Take care

jim nj


I forgot how quickly they cancelled St. Patrick's day. Freaking racists.

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