Drafting Doctors?!?

The greatest city in the world is teetering on the brink so its Mayor seizes the opportunity to remind us he is a useless buffoon:

Covid-19: De Blasio urges US enlistment program for doctors and nurses

• • Mayor calls for medics to be moved to places in greatest need
  • New York City prepares for surge in coronavirus cases

 

"Enlistment program"?!? WHAT did he say?

New York City’s mayor, Bill de Blasio, has called for a national enlistment program for doctors and nurses, to handle an expected surge in coronavirus cases in New York and across the US.

 

“If we’re fighting a war, let’s act like we’re fighting a war,” he told reporters on Friday.

...

"...unless the military is fully mobilized and we create something we’ve never had before, which is some kind of national enlistment of medical personnel moved to the most urgent needs in the country constantly … if we don’t have that we’re going to see hospitals simply unable to handle so many people who could be saved.”

OK, that won't be happening. As a minor point, there is no time for Congress to pass the relevant legislation. As a major point, this is still America, we abandoned the draft decades ago, and we don't force people to work at gunpoint.

And how would it work? NY hospitals are short of Protective Personal Equipment. So the Feds are going to threaten to arrest some doctor in Vermont unless he gets down to NY and imperils himself by treating coronavirus patients? And if the good people of the great state of Vermont need health care down the road, NY promises to send their doctor back, unless he's sick or dead or super busy saving New Yorkers in which case, well, that's a problem for another day?

I saw a poignant story of a retired 50-ish nurse from New York. She was planning to answer Gov. Cuomo's call for volunteers but had qualms  she lives with two youngsters and her elderly parents. Working with coronavirus patents all day puts her at high risk of infection; going home puts her at risk of infecting her high-risk parents.

Her intention was to respond because Duty Calls, and I applaud her fighting spirit. But I have a hard time imagining a state legislator or judge would agree to lock her up if she chose to sit this one out and take care of her mom and dad.

As a further illustration that desperate times require desperate short-sightedness, this order by Gov. Cuomo is outrageous:

Cuomo said he would sign an executive order that allows the national guard to take ventilators and personal protective equipment from institutions that don’t need them right now, and redistribute them to those that do. He said those institutions would either have their ventilators returned to them or get reimbursements. Cuomo said there may be several hundred ventilators available because of the order.

Right now, the state is fielding a daily need for about 300 additional ventilators, he said. Those ventilators, officials have repeatedly explained, make the difference between life and death.

“Am I willing to deploy the national guard and inconvenience people for several hundred lives? You’re damn right I am,” Cuomo said.

Upstate NY legislators are pushing back. I haven't studied their local budgets and planning process but I imagine some of them are thinking they spent years in investing in appropriate capacity for their town and now, at the moment of crisis, its being taken away by people who couldn't plan far enough ahead to buy hot dogs for the Fourth of July.

As to the idea that they'll will get it back if they need it - oh, stop. NYC won't start unhooking people and letting them die just to return ventilators to some upstate burg. The absence of trust makes sharing difficult and this brute expropriation outrageous.

Apparently they won't take more than 20% of the ventilators from any hospital, so the plan isn't fully insane.

Some pushback from the Rochester area upstate:

Rochester Regional Health deferred questions to Monroe County. Both County Executive Adam Bello and U.S. Rep. Joseph Morelle, D-Irondequoit, expressed concerned over Cuomo's executive order.

"While it’s reasonable to share resources across communities when available, the reality is that Monroe County’s positive cases, hospitalizations, and ventilator usage increase daily," Bello said in a statement. "We do not have excess capacity to send supplies out of the region.”

Morelle echoed those sentiments.

"Unfortunately, our regional health systems have repeatedly indicated that excess ventilator capacity does not exist at this time," Morelle offered in a statement.

Rich Azzopardi, senior advisor to Cuomo, said, "...it is essential that we all work together."

He continued, "Ventilators literally save lives. They will be returned or reimbursed to those hospitals. Moreover, when the pandemic wave hits upstate New York, the Governor will ask downstate hospitals for similar help."

I guess Gov. Cuomo's message is "tough luck".

More pushback from Erie County Republicans:

We cannot allow the state to confiscate our public health resources by force and redistribute them to New York City.  The offer to pay for them only adds insult to injury.  Once they are taken, we will not get them back when we need them, and clearly none are available for purchase.  We want to help, but if we hit our peak while our resources are elsewhere, Erie County residents will die.  We cannot let that happen.”

No trust.

Comments

[MissMarple2]

Now we have the question about the fired IG and the second whistleblower, plue changes to qualifications to be a whictleblower.

Ha! Trump says that he ought to "sue the guy's ass off!"

[henry]

press going off on IG butthurt. Trump prescribing tiger balm.

[Rocco]

I used vaping to quit smoking, maybe I should start again!

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

They have both the liquid and paste at Amazon.
Ordered both.

[KevlarKid]

IG butthurt salve...corncob dipped in turpentine with a dash of serrano chili paste.

riverrdance, Bitch!

[henry]

Kev, wirebrush soaked in jalapeño paste.

[Tom R]

Iggy @ 4:33

What stupid crap do you think Trump is doing? If you are referring to the relief packages that are intended for low income and unemployed citizens, what is a better alternative that helps them feed their families during the shutdown? If the government is not allowing these people to work and earn income to feed their families then who else besides the government should be responsible for helping them buy food?

[lyle]

https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2020/04/making-red-china-pay.html

Among other items:

3. End the trade agreement. Red China lied. The trade deal died.

4. Raise the tariffs to a minimum of 100% on all products and services and 1,000% on products related to defense.

5. Quarantine all cargo ships delivering goods from Red China for 14 days.

6. Quarantine all travelers from Red China for 14 days. Who knows what new diseases they carry?

He omits hanging Thomas Friedman from a lampost but otherwise these are great ideas.

[henry]

Trump keelhauled Captain Coronavirus.

[henry]

Fauci says Big Brother a minimum for reopening the economy.

[Extraneus]

From the link I posted above...

Of 1,150 total COVID deaths:

- 1 was under 25 years old (0.1%)
- 8 between 25-34 (0.7%)
- 33 between 35-44 (2.9%)
- 75 between 45-54 (6.5%)
- 123 between 55-64 (10.7%)
- 910 65 and above (79%)

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Can someone recap the presser today? I'm stuck on the Disney Junior channel. :(

[MissMarple2]

President Trump had some acerbic words on 3M.

[GUS]

The GOVERNMENT doesn't feed anyone. The TAXPAYER does. Pretty simple concept.
The GOVERNMENT tells the taxpayer that the TAXPAYER can't work. Who pays??

[Rocco]

This guy claims that big pharma is behind the panic. He claims that Fauci's agenda is vaccination because vaccines eliminate lawsuits and the billions of dollars big pharma spends on developing drugs. He also claims to have invented email so I don't know what to think.

https://thedonald.win/p/FMStnAJE/dr-shiva-is-the-hillsdale-colleg/c/

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Did you read the article?
There's always a very good short term reason to do something that in the long run is worse AND accretes power to the government.
Result? As the old American Spectator used to call it, The Continuing Crisis.
After a few decades of it those imperatives have "helped" the low income and unemployed remain low income and unemployed and have destroyed trillions in wealth that was never created or consumed.
And even worse, the state is now our master and the Fed conjures trillions out of thin air to prevent the very necessary consequences of recessions, the result of which is the connected get richer, bubbles come and go, the middle class stagnates and the poor become stuck in dependency and the economy becomes more and more constipated and inefficient.
We need a recessionary laxative not another Federal cork. If we don't, well Mr Creosote comes to mind.

[lyle]

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/04/04/shunned-slate-notes-that-new-york-city-hasnt-received-an-outpouring-of-national-love-like-after-9-11/

Why would she care about the lack of love from the Christianist unpeople hicks in flyover land?

[lyle]

https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/04/04/mitt-romney-joins-with-a-democrat-to-warn-trump-about-relief-oversight/

Speaking of pukes who could use a little -19. I hear sanctimoniousness is a co-morbidity.

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

National love after 9/11? Pulease.

We went to Disney that Christmas and sorry, but the amount of entitlement many of the families from NY and NJ felt like they were entitled to just because they were from there was ridiculous.

Standing in a group to get into the MK waiting on the park to open and they were all "We're from NY and we should be entitled to go to the front of the line." Same thing at the restaurants. "But we're from NY, we don't need reservations!"

UH, no asshole. You got there late, just wait your turn. Totally soured me on any good vibes I had for them. Typical victim mentality writ large.

[GUS]

Steph, Cuomo and DiCommio are very very grateful for the FEDERAL GOVT and POTUS'S help. Or something.

[Jim Eagle]

lyle,

Whats on tap tonight. I have my Morrocan Chicken Thighs with Olives, Figs, Tomatoes and lots of spices in the oven. Its Spring and I don't have a Beujolais, so I opening up a Pavie from 1966. It should do the trick:)

[Tom R]

Gus @ 5:21

Yes it is a simple concept which makes it odd that you don't the point.

[Momto2]

I have Ivermectin liquid (sheep drench) in my refrigerator. I use it once a month to prevent my dogs from getting heartworms. It's much cheaper than the heartworm pills from the vet. I first learned how to dose it from an Auburn vet and then, when I did dog rescue, they used it as well. It's sold as a sheep dewormer and you use a marked syringe. It only takes a tiny bit for Darby and not much more for my 65 lb. hound.

I'm thinking my Tractor Supply had it for around $30-$40 and it lasts over a year. Yes - here it is from Tractor Supply:

[GUS]

From '66, isn't it expired yet???? Be careful.

I made chicken salad, with rosemary sage thyme seasoning salt, and lots of black pepper. Celery, delicious white onions, cashew pieces, and red grapes. Hellman's mayo of course/Duke's certainly works if you have it on hand. AsparaGUS, and a 2020 Pepsi-Cola from the cellar/Coke will do just as well/ RC goes well with chicken too.

[jimmyk]

I just bought two tubes

Same. While I was there I couldn't resist some hoof hardener, and some of these, since I hear they're good for prevention:

[Momto2]

Stephanie, I used to use the paste to worm our horses...even they couldn't stand the taste! I'd stick with the liquid if there is a choice but Darby says even that tastes yucky! Must have a yummy treat after to get the taste out of her mouth!

[anonamom]

hrts, make you own mask. No sew! Those are ponytail hair elastics

https://twitter.com/Constance8News/status/1246186931643449349

[Tom R]

Iggy @ 5:22

You didn't address the point. If you think Trump's solution to the crisis is "stupid crap" then what is the alternative? He is clearly focusing on saving lives over saving stock portfolios. What other solution does he have available to help save lives and help people feed their families?

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

et me start by saying I’m very hopeful about treatments, which may come any day, reduce all these numbers, and quickly resolve this mess. I hope they do. But since we can’t count on that, we have to make decisions now based on the best numbers we have.

Everyone wants to know what will be the final mortality rate. This is a combination of the attack rate (how many will get it), and of those, the case fatality rate (how many will die).

All of these numbers are in flux but let’s try to tighten our understanding of each:

Attack Rate: The attack rate is doubling every three days. It’s still very low—with only Spain at over 0.25 percent—but it has been doubling unabated in all but a few countries like South Korea (a nation we should be emulating). The current low attack rate is of little solace, however, because in cases where we have had an isolated population, we see much higher numbers. Diamond Princess had an attack rate of 19 percent, the staff at a Washington state nursing home (average age 43.5) had a rate of 29 percent, and a 60-person choir in Washington state had an attack rate of 75 percent. Attack rates in the 20s are common for flu (despite 37 percent of people having been vaccinated each season) and for other coronaviruses like the common cold. We have seen no examples where natural immunity protected people at a better rate. Therefore we must start with 20 percent as a minimum assumption and just hope it doesn’t go to over 50 percent. The nominal case fatality rate (CFR) in the United States, using Worldometer’s numbers, is currently at 2.57 percent. This nominal number is very rough and we have to look at four factors to adjust it. One of these factors will dilute it down but three factors will push it up.

1) Down: Undetected cases, if found, would drive the percentage down. If we really have 10 times the number of cases than we think, our CFR is really only 0.255 percent. But do we? Well, the country with the fewest undetected cases is probably South Korea. They are testing like crazy with over 50 tests per detected case. Plus, they have contact-traced and have almost slowed down new infections so they aren’t hitting a moving target anymore. I would say that undetected cases largely have been baked into their numbers. Their CFR is 1.73 percent and rising (the rising part is explained by the next factors). Their denominator is solid and clearly points to a CFR over 17 times that of the flu.

There has been some talk that the virus has actually already spread undetected widely throughout society and that most people have already gotten over it. This question can and should be resolved over the next few weeks with a new test. The current swab test looks for the antigen (the virus which is present in your nose). A new blood test looks for the antibody (the cure that your immune system creates once it’s beaten the virus and which floats in your blood thereafter). If this conjecture were to prove true, it would be great news—although cases are still rising, the virus would be about to run out of new people to infect. The sick ones we see now would be about all we’d get.

This conjecture likely won’t hold up. Consider the Diamond Princess Cruise. Of 3,700 people, 19 percent got the virus, and eight died (and some are still sick). The conjecture says the virus is already widespread in society, so 19 percent detected on the Diamond Princess is not unusual.

But do similar populations all have 10 pneumonia deaths to match? We’d expect any group of 3,700 Americans with similar ages to have about 0.16 flu or pneumonia deaths per month. Instead the Princess got 10—60 times higher. The Diamond Princess is not typical. It only got 60 times the number of deaths because its 19 percent attack rate was 60 times higher than society’s. Therefore, society may have a long way to go before the virus runs out of victims.

2) Up: Falsely Detected Positive Cases and the “Bayes Theorem.” Many, and perhaps most, of the detected cases don’t actually have the virus and this drives the denominator back down. This is confusing math, but it’s well known among researchers and very common among all tests.

Let’s say you have 1,000 infected people and you mix them with another 100,000 who are not infected. So your universe is 101,000 people.

Let’s say you have a test that is 97 percent accurate. If you test positive, given that the test is 97 percent accurate, you are naturally going to assume there is a 97 percent chance you have the disease. But surprisingly, the odds that you have it are only about 25 percent.

How is that even possible? Here’s how:

100,000 are in fact negative: 97,000 test negative and 3,000 (incorrectly) test positive.
1,000 are in fact positive: 970 test positive and 30 (incorrectly) test negative.

So even though you only have 1000 infected people, you have about 4,000 positive tests (3,970 to be precise).

Thus if you tested positive you have a 25.2 percent chance (1000/3970 = 25.2) of really being infected. Some studies have indicated that the current test is allowing for about half of the positives to be wrong. So if we have 200,000 positive tests reported on Worldometers, we might have found 100,000 infected people. Of course, this plays off the first factor of untested people and so the number goes up again. So if we have 200,000 positive tests with 4,000 dead, what’s the CFR? Well, if only 100,000 of the 200,000 actually have the virus, then our “real” CFR is 4 percent. But if there are 400,000 infected out in the world (which might require 800,000 positive test results to find), then our real CFR is 1 percent. So these first two factors make the denominator hard to know, but just realize that while undetected cases are often cited, they are offset by false positives which are rarely mentioned.

3) Up: Unresolved Cases. Also known as counting chickens before they’ve hatched. Yes, in the United States, only 2.57 percent of the detected people have died, but another 2.2 percent are in serious condition, and 64 percent, were just diagnosed in the last week! They are hardly out of the woods and many will die—only 4.5 percent are listed as fully recovered. This disease kills 1-2 weeks after being detected. You can’t just hand everyone with a positive test at a drive thru an “I survived corona” t-shirt and dump them into the “didn’t die” bucket.

Worldometers distinguishes between active, serious and resolved cases, but people just want to jump to the deaths/cases number to get a quick and dirty nominal CFR. By this nominal method, South Korea was looking great for a while at 0.6 percent—that is, until they stopped getting many new cases to artificially dilute their CFR. Once the cases they already had were given time, the CFR began, predictably, to inch up. It’s now up to 1.73 percent and rising every day.

The same is true of Germany. They looked to be at 0.3 percent as recently as late March, and a Stanford professor claimed that by finding almost all undetected cases, Germany had revealed the “true” CFR of only 0.3 percent. But it was wishful thinking. Germany’s CFR had been diluted by prematurely counting unresolved cases. In just a week it more than quadrupled to 1.40 percent and is rising so rapidly that I had to adjust it up five times while editing this article. Similarly the United States has drifted up from 1.5 percent last week to 2.57 percent today, despite discovering tens of thousands of undetected cases, which otherwise would have brought those numbers down.

Even as I review these numbers, notice that the 0.1 percent CFR of the flu is less than the daily rounding errors. COVID-19 isn’t just a bad flu.

4) Up: Overwhelm—COVID-19 has one of the highest hospitalization rates, longest hospital stays, and requires very difficult PPE. It’s exhausting and nerve racking for medical personnel to suit up, disinfect, go home to the family and hope you aren’t contagious. Even getting a drink of water or going to the bathroom are big deals. This is a war for the medical profession. On April 1, 1,049 people died of COVID-19 in the United States, making it the third leading cause of death at the moment. Heart disease and cancer are at about 1,700 per day but those are nowhere near as taxing on the staff. Remember that 1,049 died from an attack rate at only about 0.1 percent, not the 20 percent or more we might see soon.

Right now we are within our medical capacities and we are growing those capacities. But if we were to let the attack rate continue repeatedly to double, which it surely would absent the shutdown, we would overrun our capacity. To be conservative, I’m actually downgrading overwhelm as a factor in the United States. Recent data is showing that the ventilators, while lifesavers for some patients, aren’t helping as many as hoped. Perhaps one-third of ventilated patients are saved. So, for every two that die today, a third patient might die for lack of a ventilator—a 50 percent jump for that subset. I think that we will be able to keep up with demand for other treatments.

Where does this leave us?

The nominal (not adjusting for any of the above factors) global CFR is 5.37 percent but is too muddled to be predictive of the United State’s final CFR. Our best guides appear to be South Korea and Germany. Having already extensively tested and contact-traced, newly detected cases are unlikely to bring their CFRs down further than their current 1.73 percent and 1.4 percent respectively. In contrast, the other three factors have been and will continue to drive up their numbers. Remember that Bayes Theorem means that we will likely never see a correct denominator and that those two CFRs would already calculate to well over 2 percent if they could be Bayes-corrected. But ignoring that factor (as everyone else will) and looking only at the nominal method that most will use, we will continue to see the South Korean and German CFRs trend higher towards 2-3 percent, primarily because active cases will become resolved.

So, this argues that if treated in modern hospitals and in manageable numbers a 2-3 percent CFR is the “natural” effect of the disease itself. Deviations from that are the result of how a country handles it in bulk.

If we were to fully reopen the economy, we would experience an unchecked attack rate and this threatens to overwhelm the system. The overwhelm factor is an escalating factor. That is, if you have a natural CFR of 2 percent, the overwhelm might jump that to 2.4 percent, but if the CFR is naturally at 3 percent, the overwhelm might kick in even more and jump the CFR to 4.5 percent.

First World countries such as Italy and Spain will probably see their numbers drift down (if they test) because undetected cases are likely a larger factor than unresolved cases. After weeks of quarantine their new infections are trending down, so further overwhelm may not occur, but some overwhelming damage is already done. Their final CFRs will probably be in the 4 percent range—if they figure out how to prevent new outbreaks, stave off civil unrest, and restart their economies (piece of cake).

Undeveloped countries will likely see the overwhelm factor dominate throughout the pandemic and see CFRs of 5-6 percent or more. We are unlikely ever to know their denominators and will eventually switch from CFRs to overall population mortality numbers and won’t allow us to distinguish the CFR and attack rate separately. Sadly, developing countries might be better off accepting a high attack rate, as any methods used to lower it may trigger a famine and an even higher death rate. There may simply be no solution for those countries other than to hope for treatments. For them it may be 1918.

If we were to lighten up our controls and let the attack rate rise to its natural biological level, we easily could end up with 20 percent or more being infected (65 million), with 2-3 percent CFR, plus an overwhelm factor. So 1.5 million to 2.5 million fatalities. To be honest, I’m still being conservative here because there’s no evidence that the attack rate couldn’t be 50 percent if unchecked. Then you are talking about 4 million to 6 million deaths. In the event of 200 million cases with 2 percent CFR overwhelmed to 3 percent and boom—you are at 6 million. That’s hard to think about but it’s in the realm of possibility. But even 1.5 million is too high for the public to accept, just to save the economy.

This is why there is a shutdown. Letting the attack rate hit its natural biological number without quarantine is just not acceptable to most people. I’m very hopeful that effective treatments can drive the CFR way down, but with no guarantee of that, I’m pointing out what I consider to be the most reliable current math, if we were to immediately resume the economy as normal. This is nothing like a bad flu. I notice a lot of shutdown opponents who are comparing predicted fatalities with the shutdown and saying that the shutdown isn’t worth it. But they are mixing apples and oranges. The 100,000-200,000 fatalities that National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci is talking about will not hold if we remove the measures.

What I fear the “don’t panic” advocates are missing is that once people start dying, individuals aren’t going to want to go to Las Vegas or to ballgames, anyway. They won’t want to go out to eat or go to shopping malls. Either we shut down with a plan, or we half shut down by individual decision, ruin the economy anyway, but then don’t stop the spread.

To halt the attack rate now, we are using a full shutdown—a very blunt instrument. We might be able to implement a far more precise instrument and get a decent result with only a partial shutdown. The “flatten the curve” strategy actually assumes we arrive at the natural biological attack rate, just slowly, preventing only the overage deaths from overwhelm.

We are in this predicament because we let the horse get out of the barn. Painful as it is, we have to put it back inside by using this shutdown and testing. Then we can look at how we can partially operate while keeping R0 (the replication number) below it’s “chain reaction” number. That is, the attack rate will grow, but it will not be allowed to engage in regular doublings. We have to do that while we wait for a vaccine or treatments.

How can this be done? South Korea and Japan are already succeeding. What to do next will be the subject of a future piece.

Stay safe and healthy.

From American Greatness - Jeffrey V actually wrote it under a pen name but posted it to his wall that it was him, so I guess it is ok to reveal this.

[Dave (in MA)]

I hope nobody's jealous, but I had a slice of Italian bread with Teddie peanut butter on it, and a glass of Stop & Shop diet cola.

[GUS]

Shit, I just cleaned the fish tank with Hydrochorquine and some left over antibiotics.
Capn' Nemo and all his kin are DEAD!! DEAD!!!

Trump told me it was good for them.

[jimmyk]

Steph, luv ya but how about a link instead...

[anonamom]

Anybody reading about the Princess whatever cruiser could FIGURE IT OUT FOR THEMSELVES that there was asymptomatic transmission--people who were asymptomatic the day before leaving Japan or wherever they were, were positive on arrival here, remember???
What do you think that is?
Not to mention it was written about all over by the end of jnaurty.

These governors need WAY better staffers.

[Jim Eagle]

Momto2,

Since you mention Tractor Supply, I have always wanded to take one of Steph's privileged New Yorker and blind fold them and turn them loose in a TS store. Filming it would be a hoot.

[Jane]

Kev,SPOKE TO A DR friend the other day. He said vaping is worse than smoking for the virus.

[joan]

Miss Marple, I read that biography of David Niven's. Quite witty fella. He got disillusioned with Hollywood after the Sharon Tate murder, drugs, etc., and returned to live in England.

Someone asked me when we lived in England. We moved from South Carolina to London the first time in 1974 and left in 1986. There were two more short assignments in the 90s. First time we lived in a flat on Park Lane, then moved to Kensington and lived about a two or three minute walk from Holland Park (which I loved) for over a decade. Other times we rented in Surrey when offices moved out there.

[Extraneus]

Yesterday we saw data that showed that only 2% of COVID positives without pre-existing conditions went to ICU, and I hypothesized that half of those survived. Does that mean that the 99% of the deaths in my 5:17 had pre-existing conditions? If so, the rates for infected healthy people under age 45 are extremely low.

[henry]

I have beer. And food. Sun is shining, so ark building is on hold. All is well.

[GUS]

I think when all of this is over the BLUE FIST crowd is going to expect GOVERNMENT to take care of them forever. And just wait til Joe Dementia goes a campaigning with his Doctor Wife in tow.
She could save us all, as she's ONE HELL of a DOCTOR. Or so someone told me.

[KevlarKid]

i'd settle for chaining them to a salt block in their tony front yards. moo motherfucker.

[Manuel Transmission]

This may have already been linked, but it deserves a perusal for both the main article as well as the comments. It is Monckton of Brenchley taking his well thought out shot at the WuFlu situation.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/04/are-lockdowns-working/#comment-2955112

In the comments, search for:

LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks April 4, 2020 at 10:22 am

He has some pretty direct observations worthy of discussion as well.

[KevlarKid]

Dave--- what? no "Billy Peanut Butter?"

[Extraneus]

Why would she care about the lack of love from the Christianist unpeople hicks in flyover land?

Because she's praying for Cuomo to save her from Trump?

[Rocco]

Jane, I weened myself off of the vape by decreasing the nicotine content in the vape juice. Now I'm a non smoker.

[Ralph L]

I don't think I'd heard of head lice until adulthood. Is it a euphemism for cooties?

[Dave (in MA)]

Never heard of it, GUS.

[Dave (in MA)]

When I was in elementary school they had everybody in the school take turns seeing the nurse, who'd use a newly-unwrapped comb and a tongue depressor to have a look to see who might have them. I think it maybe happened 2 or 3 times altogether over the course of 6 years. Not sure if they ever explained what was going on, either.

[sbwaters]

I forget, why am I putting peanut butter on the lintel along with lamb's blood on Tuesday night?

[Extraneus]

How can govts not be letting the young people out? Ours is dysfunctional due to TDS, of course, but what about all the others? What am I missing? Young healthy people don't die from it, so why are they all still cooped up in India, for example? What's the logic? Nobody can figure out how to protect the more vulnerable population from the invulnerables?

[anonamom]

Everybody can have invermictin in the house, like porch.

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=ivermectin&crid=JQAX5RRH2ATB&sprefix=invermict%2Caps%2C168&ref=nb_sb_ss_sc_1_9

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Pretty much everything that Jeffrey V guy said in Steph's nonlink I have said myself.

But he doesn't address the issue Ext, Porch, me and others have raised and that the Klimate Katastrophe Kook guy MT mentioned raises also;

For those without comorbidities and under the age of 65 the risks do not seem worth the great hunkering.
So why isn't locking down strictly those most at risk while letting everyone else get back to work and life a sensible middle ground, even if we don't enforce that brilliant county quarantine idea someone had? It especially makes sense if flattening the curve doesn't appreciably lower the eventual attack rate, as they call it.
Is it just some misguided sense of fairness? If the diabetic and the geezers gotta be locked up everyone has to be?

That $1Trillion we were discussing earlier might have a hard time working through the healthcare system in time but it would sure pay for a lot of people to help keep the quarantined fed, healthy and happy and also pay for testing the helpers so they didn't go spreading it all over.

[Captain Hate]

If the diabetic and the geezers gotta be locked up everyone has to be?

Bang spot on.

[lyle]

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/04/04/wapos-fact-checker-notes-that-president-trumps-line-in-his-sotu-about-record-low-unemployment-did-not-age-well/

Is every last employee at this rag a dick?

[Porchlight]

Y'all can laugh at the ivermectin but I'm pretty happy to have it.

[Extraneus]

Is it just some misguided sense of fairness? If the diabetic and the geezers gotta be locked up everyone has to be?

Great question, and some polling would probably indicate that the geezers don't agree. I certainly don't agree that my 23-year-old healthy son should be cooped up right now. He should be contributing to society, especially now. Just keep him away from me and his mother until he's had it and survived and is immune and no longer carrying. I'll pay for his hotel room if Mnuchin won't.

[lyle]

I’m making chicken enchiladas, Jack. A ‘66 Pavie, huh? Are you using an ah so to open it? That’s racist! 😉

If you haven’t checked this little item out, you should:

www.thedurand.com

[Porchlight]

Porch! have you read anything about the Ivermectin dosing for humans re Covid?

Don't know if it's been tested on humans yet for CV. But I know was harmless - to ME - in the dose I took (about half a teaspoon). *Please* don't just take my word for it, though. :)

NIH study about oral ivermectin for lice - I haven't read this but it might have dosage information. Horse ivermectin is 1.87%. The package has 5 horse dosages, so obviously more than 5 doses for humans.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20718901

[Porchlight]

Steph, the ivermectin liquid is NOT for ingestion - topical spray only. But it could be added to hand sanitizer, perhaps.

[Porchlight]

Or maybe you could dose with the liquid, but BE CAREFUL as Momto2 suggested.

[Tom R]

Young healthy people don't die from it

On Fox News they just reported three more NYPD officers died from COVID 19. The young healthy people can get infected and spread the disease just as easy as anyone else.

[Porchlight]

Fauci is BAD NEWS. Literally and figuratively. I want him out of the picture. He is not helpful.

[Extraneus]

Brined, dry rubbed and smoked pork chops here (the best way to make them that I've ever found), Sylvia's canned greens, half a Gabilla's knish (you're missing out if you don't know what I'm talking about), and boxed wine. Magnifique!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I'm confused. Did someone say the Ivermectin bolus tastes like horse apples, or that it's for horses and tastes like apples?

[Rocco]

I'm with you Porch, I think he has Trump buffaloed. I agree with Shiva, Fauci's big pharma with an agenda, to vaccinate everyone. Big Pharma saves billions on testing and no lawsuits. Want to renew your drivers license? Gotta get vaccinated. Want to eat in restaurants, must be vaccinated. You get the drift.

[GUS]

So you guys are like TRUMP, you're suggesting that people drink LICE MEDICINE.
A nice tall glass of LICE B-GONE and I'll be better.
Question is, which costs more......FISH TANK CLEANER or LICE U-B DEAD???

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--On Fox News they just reported three more NYPD officers died from COVID 19.--

Without knowing their ages and health conditions that doesn't tell us much.

--The young healthy people can get infected and spread the disease just as easy as anyone else.--

Of course they can. Why not try to separate them from those at risk and let them get back to work?

The Lancet Study came up with these figures;

The death rate among those who were sickened by the disease was roughly 0.03% for people in their 20s; 0.08% for people in their 30s; 0.16% for people in their 40s; 0.6% for people in their 50s; 1.9% for people in their 60s; 4.3% for people in their 70s; and 7.8% for people 80 years old and older, the researchers found.

Now I don't know what the breakdown was for those under 70, but almost certainly most had underlying conditions that mean the mortality rate for healthy people under 70 is pretty low and quite low for anyone under 60.
So lets do some Jim Crowin and get the at risk people segregated and the rest back to work.

[D]

What is a Gabilla’s knish?

[Porchlight]

Rocco, even minus the big pharma/vaccine piece, he's just part of the health bureaucracy borg. This is what I've been saying since the beginning. The barber tells you that you need a haircut. The epidemiologist tells you that you're going to have an epidemic and it's going to be really bad. Because that's what they do.

Unless it's 2009 and a worshipped Democrat is newly installed in the WH. And then it's all going to be fine.

[Threadkiller]

Fauci's big pharma with an agenda, to vaccinate everyone.

Yep. And the last thing big pharma wants is a cheap mass produced malaria pill, whose patent has expired, to help control seasonal flu and common colds.

[Jane]

Fauci is BAD NEWS. Literally and figuratively. I want him out of the picture. He is not helpful.

I agree! He thrives on bad news.

[D]

Rocco:
I s as m in the middle.
Other than Anonamom and my brother in law and my niece, I don’t trust doctors. Too much doom and gloom. Plus they don’t factor in the mind or the ability of a positive attitude to overcome illness.
I have a question about ventilators.
How many survive after they are put on one.
Why are they important if you just die anyway.
If I have a DNR order do I have to go on a ventilator.?
I would rather die under my own steam.

[Another Bob]

“saving lives over saving stock portfolios”

Bumper sticker argument. Silly.

[D]

Should be I am.

[D]

Agree with Jimmyk and Iggy.

[GUS]

I agree with Porch 7:03. I've said all along that FAUCI is pile of scat. He is. He's full bureaucracy 24/7. He OUR VERY OWN Tim Geithner.

[Threadkiller]

Thomas Massie
@RepThomasMassie
·
Apr 3
.
@SpeakerPelosi
and
@GOPLeader
have their heads in the sand.

They refuse to consider remote voting (during crisis) for Congress.

Not voting is not an option!

The Constitution requires at least half of Congress to pass a bill.

I’m raising this issue NOW.

[Threadkiller]

Thomas Massie
@RepThomasMassie
Apr 3

@SpeakerPelosi and @GOPLeader have their heads in the sand.

They refuse to consider remote voting (during crisis) for Congress.

Not voting is not an option!

The Constitution requires at least half of Congress to pass a bill.

I’m raising this issue NOW.

[Threadkiller]

? I thought the first one didn’t post.

[Jane]

A friend of mine posted this on Facebook in response to the request:

Name 10 famous people you have met and one lie. (I left the last 3 off because I never heard of them)

Guess which one was the lie:

This my list
Only one a lie
The pope. John Paul.
The Queen
Ronald Reagan
Jimmy Carter
Prince Charles
Barack Obama
Ted Turner

[KevlarKid]

Thanks for the info on the 'mectin, Porch. i'm staying abreast of the story as i'm doing with my GP about hydroxy.

[Momto2]

Iggy I'm confused. Did someone say the Ivermectin bolus tastes like horse apples, or that it's for horses and tastes like apples?

The paste says it's "apple-flavored" but my horses disagreed! One especially was impossible to worm. We filled an empty syringe with sweetened applesauce and began giving it to him once a week. After a month or so we slipped in the paste wormer. After that one time, he wouldn't go for the applesauce!

[D]

Jane:
The Queen is the lie.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

It's a real pain when our animals are smarter than we are. :)

[D]

My estimate is after Easter and this predicted bad week, we will gradually start to open up some of the economy, especially some restaurants if they limit seating.
Not in the hot zones.

[Porchlight]

It has a vaguely fake apple-ish flavor. I don't blame the horses. :)

[Threadkiller]

http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2020-04-01.html#read_more

Lots of stick figure arm waiving but she has it right on a decent portion of her rant.

[hrtshpdbox]

anonamom, thanks very much for your 5:41; I'm absolutely going to make one of those! Seems almost as good as anything else, really, and here's the link for anyone who didn't see:

https://twitter.com/Constance8News/status/12461869316

[Porchlight]

I hope you're right, maryrose.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Never cared for the Lovin Spoonful but always kind of liked Nashville Cats;
This version is by a guy named Tony Jackson, an ex Marine, from a couple of years ago. Accompanied by John Sebastian, Steve Cropper and others.

[hrtshpdbox]

Somehow, my link doesn't work...well, the 5:41 one does.

[anonamom]

Who's laughing?
I ordered it--and I'll bet the three partners I texted the article to and then the Amazon link do as well.
Hope that sour apple paste tastes OK.

[Momto2]

He was a mess, Iggy. He got an abrasion on his eye which required drops 3X a day or they were going to haul him down to the vet school. We naively said we would do it. Oh, boy! They must have stung because he went nuts! Our horse vet came up with an idea. She ran a tiny tube through his mane, down his forehead, and made a small incision so it would empty into the eye. (There was a patch over the eye.) We were to insert a syringe into the tube back in his mane and it would flow down into his eyeball. After a couple of times, he wouldn't let us near his mane. He learned that it led to stinging in his eye!

We eventually had to put him into a cow chute with treats and clamp him down to treat it. Miraculously, he recovered and didn't lose his eye. He lived to be 31 years old. He was a former barrel racer and a sweet boy unless it involved medicine or yucky tasting wormer.

[Jack Lillywhite]

I don’t know, MR, I have met the Queen and Prince Phillip. Was a special honor come via my FIL. It happens.

Mrs. JiB went to school with the King of the Netherlands. It happens.

[Jane]

D,

Nope

[Porchlight]

Something on the lighter side. My brother loves this Twitter account. Lots of stuff about growing up in the 70s so he's about the same age as us.

Sorry not sorry about the language.

[Dave (in MA)]

The Queen

There are currently 12 monarchs holding the position of "Queen" in the world acc. to Wikipedia.

[Captain Hate]

The Skull Shift Knob is aways in high gear aiming for the look at me finish line, only impeded by the speed bumps of erstwhile allies she runs over.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

This is the one question in the universe that I have least been able to conceive a reasonable answer to;

Why doesn't Aaron Neville get that big thing whacked off of his frickin eyebrow?

[GUS]

She met either Queem Latifa or Freddie Mercury!

[Dave (in MA)]

Ditto for the late Lemmy Kilmister and those things on the side of his face.