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April 18, 2020

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Melinda

That's not how you leave a pneu thread!

Old Lurker

cough, cough Mel

Captain Hate

Willowed because this pisses me off so much

https://mobile.twitter.com/pebonilla/status/1251145649506091008

cathyf

Crap, got willowed:

#DEVELOPING DHS Biodefense Lab finds in preliminary tests that “sunlight kills the virus quickly” and Covid-19 does not survive long under high temperatures or high humidity.
So maybe the MECHANISM that kills people with the virus is that we are keeping people INSIDE when they are hooked up to all of the machines? I mean you can’t be in a negative pressure room if you’re not in a room, right? Here’s an idea— pull some iron lungs out of museums, put some covid-infected people in them, and take them freaking OUTSIDE!


Old Lurker

Tom "Wow. Let me just sat that if HIV could be transmitted by casual contact, including breathing and talking, it would be a different world today."

Wow. Let me just say that if HIV spread like that but did not manifest any symptoms at all in vast numbers of people, if those who did get infected almost always recovered 100% on their own, and if those who were impacted could be told to stay out of bathhouses and take their pills, we might already have a different world today.

Melinda

The SKorean model wasn't as "thorough" as our helpful MFM described it. Total testing only happened, and thoughtfully filmed, in certain areas as opposed to the widely reported "Nationally!11!" mantra.

There are some other aspects to this virus that I'll wait patiently for further confirmation.

Melinda

TM-

No offense, but your sources of info aren't trying to help you, but to help guys like this:

RBe
@RBPundit
Did anyone get shot?

Hint: No.

Chris Murphy @ChrisMurphyCT
Let’s not normalize this: the President of the United States is encouraging citizens to engage in armed rebellion.

He sent this tweet a day after his supporters showed up with assault weapons at state capitols. He knows what’s he’s doing. twitter.com/realdonaldtrum…

twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1251256360119

https://twitter.com/RBPundit/status/1251507629219811330

cathyf


Tom "Wow. Let me just sat that if HIV could be transmitted by casual contact, including breathing and talking, it would be a different world today.“

Like Fifth Disease? Which you’ve never heard of in EXACTLY the world we have today?

Old Lurker

Somebody going to track the sickness and death that will result from putting 22,000,000 working Americans out of work overnight? Or the gazillions around the world? Or the uncounted numbers in future generations who will be forced to forego other things so they can repay the debts incurred by our reaction to this?

cathyf

I should add — Fifth Disease, which you’ve probably had but never heard of...

Extraneus

I read the whole Limbaugh link and didn't find anything wrong with it, and certainly not the part TM quoted. He didn't say we shouldn't be smart about reopening. In fact, he mentioned that people were careful before there was a polio vaccine. They just didn't shut down the country. And it's absolutely true that there may never be a vaccine for this virus.

jimmyk

Of course I make a bunch of posts on the old thread before realizing there's a new one. I'll just repeat this one because the piece was worth reading:

Already playing catch-up at 9:40am. That Medium piece by the doc posted by Iggy at 12:54am was very good. From skimming it, the main point is that the lockdowns were only justified by the alleged need to 'flatten the curve' so as to avoid straining hospital capacity. That is no longer a concern since we seem to have safely passed the peak, and in the meantime the non-WuFlu-related part of the health care system stands empty and in danger of collapse (hospitals failing), not to mention lots of people unable to get needed medical care for other issues.

The counterargument would be that opening would cause a surge of new cases and we'd be back to square one, but that seems well worth the risk.

This was the link: https://medium.com/@jbgeach/changing-the-goalposts-four-more-reasons-it-is-safe-to-open-america-560cfc0ab4c3

Melinda

Didn't they have a string of hits in the late sixties and early seventies?

Another Bob

MM: “I still think an investigation of national reporters' and pundits' finances would be important, but I realize that this would probably cause charges of harassment and infringement of 1st Amendment rights.”

No doubt there would be howling, potentially a lot of it. But I see no 1A infringement. Unfortunate that our wonderful media abjectly refuses to abide by the rules they want imposed on everyone else.

It would be an incredibly useful exercise I think.

Old Lurker

And this: "Among the 'no shutdown' advocates have been many noting we see more deaths in a normal flu season. Please stop. The idea that comparing this to a normal flu season makes sense was and remains silly."

Why is that silly? Because the NYT said so and you fell for it?

I sure as hell wish the Federalism envisioned by the Founders had worked these last few months. I would have loved to see fifty different approaches to this "threat" so we could see once and for all why "One size for all medicine decided by credentialed morons in a closed room in DC" is not and was not and will never be the way to deal with this, whatever "this" is.

jimmyk

Disagreeing with our host, following up on my comment above: As is typical of a government intervention, it remains long past the time the reason for it is no longer there. (Like that tax to help pay for the Spanish-American War.) In order to keep the intervention going, new reasons are invented.

I'll repeat: The motivation for the lockdowns was never to reduce the extent of infection, it was to spread it out over a longer period to avoid swamping the hospitals. The ultimate number of people infected is likely to be similar regardless, and if anything, spreading it out longer might make a new surge in the fall more likely.

The danger of overburdening the hospitals with ventilator cases has passed. There is no longer a justification for the lockdowns. Period.

Jane

Well if Sunshine works (and none of the people here in the Sun have it) you are all invited to visit. Unfortunately I may be face down while you are here!

Captain Hate

Didn't they have a string of hits in the late sixties and early seventies?

Mostly Laura Nyro songs of which the originals were *much* better.

jimmyk

Still catching up: Melinda, thanks for the link to that Reis Twitter thread. I know him, he's a smart guy, and I want to read the papers, but my executive summary is this: Ultimately the result of what the Fed is doing is either massive inflation, or at least losing control of inflation (so that it cycles up and down as it did in the 60s and 70s) in order to keep interest rates low. Neither of those looks great to me.

Another Bob

OL, add “ So were the "hospitals are empty" arguments offered a month ago.”

Not silly at all. An abject disaster in the medical system was predicted due to the supposed magnitude of this impending disaster. Outside of a relative handful of hospitals in hotspots, nothing even resembling this occurred.

Well we do have a slow-speed disaster now - because hospitals told to stand by for disaster are sitting empty and are firing staff to avoid going under, and people are getting sicker (and dying?) because treating them was deemed “nonessential”.

jimmyk

cathyf, I've certainly heard of fifth disease. Pretty sure the daughter had it when she was around 4 or 5 years old.

Captain Hate

Let me just sat that if HIV could be transmitted by casual contact, including breathing and talking, it would be a different world today.

Trying to make sense of statements like this makes my head hurt.

Jack Lillywhite

I mentioned warmer, sunnier weather about 3 weeks ago as a mitigator for the virus. I believe I picked that up from a MIT researcher. Get outside not stay inside.

Extraneus

I think most of the people who advocated for total lockdowns are still being paid. To them, it's kind of a vacation.

Captain Hate

Or I should have said "Trying to draw any useful conclusion from it". It's like saying if gravity didn't exist it would be a different world.

Extraneus

It's now 25 days since the NY clinical trial began for HCQ.


Old Lurker

A-bob...think of all the future sick people who would have liked to have that rural hospital which was closed for good back in 2020 around when they need it.

Honest people will be tallying the "Butcher's List" on this "war" for decades to come.

Melinda

I had no idea there's an Aspen Institute Kyiv.

https://aspeninstitutekyiv.org/en/

That's an interesting little tidbit.

cathyf

jummyk— if your daughter had Fifth, then everyone in your household and every child and adult in her school also had it. Either they had it in the past, or they had it at the same time as your daughter. And for every person in the “had it at the time“ category the same holds true for their families and their schools.

As far as I can tell, the outbreak in 2008 here infected every not-already-immune person in several counties. Of course that wasn’t very many people because it is a very old disease.

jimmyk

Need more coffee. Put this on the wrong thread:

And CH from the last thread: Why is it that some otherwise intelligent women don't understand that to have a lockdown and social distancing but still keeping mass transit open are at odds with each other?

Obviously they are at odds with each other, but one can say that the necessity (at least in a place like NYC) of keeping it open is a limit on how much social distancing we can have. Just like the necessity of keeping grocery stores open.

Why is it a necessity in NYC? Because even in a shut down world, people like nurses, lab techs, doctors, food supply chain workers, etc. need to get to work, they (mostly) don't own cars, have long commutes, so there's no realistic alternative. And in fact for the most part the subways and buses have been pretty empty here.

Rocco

I'm curious as to how the second T in TM's Triple-T, Triple-P E will work?

Tracing of contacts?

danoso

In case it wasn't posted earlier

THE WEEK IN PICTURES: TEAM JOE! EDITION

The Infamous Ignatz

--The Acela corridor from Boston to Philly is as hard hit as anywhere in the world (IMHO China was more devastated but they are choosing to defy common sense with their numbers letting.)--

Oh brother. The Black Death and smallpox brought devastation.
So far, devastated New York has lost [assuming their numbers mean anything] .05% of its population and probably half of those [h/t Neal Ferguson] weren't going to make it to the end of the year anyway.
Now those are all real people with real loved ones who will miss them, but real and pervasive devastation is happening to people's lives as the economy is destroyed and we're not talking .05% of those peoples' lives.

The Infamous Ignatz

--Wow. Let me just sat that if HIV could be transmitted by casual contact, including breathing and talking, it would be a different world today. Fortunately almost all of us were able to give up having sex with random strangers in public. Harder to avoid sharing air and surfaces.--

OK, but there is no vaccine for SARS either, nor MERS, both viruses very similar to this one and both watched closely by the entire world in case they break out again, especially in a more infectious form.
There is something to necessity being the mother of invention, but sometimes our powers fail even in the face of necessity.

As to the surfaces bit, I find that questionable. There are no doubt many undiagnosed people sending packages etc through the mail and Fedex/UPS. Why aren't postal workers and UPS drivers dropping like flies if surfaces are a ready method of transmission?

jimmyk

Why aren't postal workers and UPS drivers dropping like flies if surfaces are a ready method of transmission?

On that point:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/no-need-to-wipe-down-food-packaging-during-coronavirus-pandemic-fda-says/

I presume this applies to packages shipped via USPS etc. as well.

Neo

Apparently in Pennsylvania, book publishers are essential but software publishers are not essential.

Rocco

The FDA has been wrong before.

The Infamous Ignatz

--Among the 'no shutdown' advocates have been many noting we see more deaths in a normal flu season. Please stop. The idea that comparing this to a normal flu season makes sense was and remains silly.--

Well, we're getting more and more data, as opposed to assertions, that indicate the actual mortality rate might be pretty close to the flu. If it does then how is it silly? Especially since presumably a not insignificant number of those dying from the CCP bug would have died from the flu.
If it turns out to have a mortality rate close to the flu then who sounds more silly; advocates of total lockdowns that destroyed our economy over a second flu bug popping up or those who said a little caution isn't a bad idea but how about some common sense and not losing our heads over this?


-- So were the "hospitals are empty" arguments offered a month ago. Yes, a month later they remain empty in some places and that is worth understanding.--

Some places? How about pretty much everywhere? The rest of the country outside of NYC and NJ are not "some places". That's pretty much the whole country and NYC and NJ and even Detroit are "some places".
The model everyone has been watching was never even close on hospital usage. The demands of the dopes in NYC and NJ themselves were excessive.

A whole lot of people, have advocated reasonable caution [note; self immolation ≠ reasonable caution] until we got better numbers. Well, we're starting to get them and it looks more and more like the hair-on-fire, suspend-the-Constitution, lock-the-cell-block-down-screws contingent had us destroy the economy for nothing or very very little.
And the worst of it is, if you press the "experts" they can't even say that we saved any lives. THAT is silly.

jimmyk

it looks more and more like the hair-on-fire, suspend-the-Constitution, lock-the-cell-block-down-screws contingent had us destroy the economy for nothing or very very little.

And those same people are now doubling down rather than admit they were wrong. Human nature, I guess, but no reason we should be following their advice.

MissMarple2

ttps://www.wsj.com/articles/safety-advice-if-you-must-visit-the-grocery-store-11585336520?shareToken=stc61437754d254083b8f6d51a9f403e3f&mod=wsjtwittertest19

Free article, so you can keep up to date on how to be safe at the grocery store. For example, NOW the CDC says we don't need to wear masks.

Extraneus
“Again, there is no evidence of food packaging being associated with the transmission of COVID-19. However, if you wish, you can wipe down product packaging and allow it to air dry, as an extra precaution,” the FDA added.

The old "no evidence" game? I think I've seen that one somewhere before. The names Comey and Clinton come to mind, actually.

If the virus "lives" on handrails and doorknobs, it lives on food packaging. Either it doesn't remain viable when deposited on surfaces or it does. Just because they haven't tested food packaging that has had the virus deposited on it, that doesn't it wouldn't be there and viable if they did. There's just "no evidence" of it.

I would rather have seen them cite a study. How long does it remain viable on cardboard boxes? Glass bottles? Metal cans? Plastic bags?

Don't we already know that it can be transmitted by reusable grocery bags? If that's true, then how is it possible that groceries themselves are harmless by definition? I'm not buying this FDA guidance.

MissMarple2

Let's try that again:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/safety-advice-if-you-must-visit-the-grocery-store-11585336520?shareToken=stc61437754d254083b8f6d51a9f403e3f&mod=wsjtwittertest19

MissMarple2

Extraneus,

I refuse to believe anyone in the bureaucracy actually knows what they are doing. I also think that the news people are hooked on the fear factor, so they push things in the other direction.

James D.

On the other hand, some of the anti-shutdown people have roughly zero credibility with me.

Most of the pro-shutdown people have zero credibility with me.

That absolutely includes pretty much everyone in elected office.

Another Bob

"Why aren't postal workers and UPS drivers dropping like flies if surfaces are a ready method of transmission?"

Actually, an interesting question.

After the anthrax scare of 2002(?) where spores were sent through letter mail, USPS did take some measures with their sorting machinery. These were more for the safety of the machine operators however.

Wouldn't surprise me if UPS/FedEx were taking some measures. It wouldn't be technically difficult to add UV tunnels to their sorting lines. No idea if that'd be prohibitive due to the cost, and what that might do to their processing rates.

jimmyk

Ext@11:10, from what I've read, "experts" are all over the map on these questions. Part of the problem is that you can find remnants of the virus on surfaces hours or even days after contamination, but it's not clear that one can get sick from those remnants.

If this were a terribly deadly disease I would be more cautious, but it's not, other than for the sick and elderly.

James D.

MM @ 11:15

The arbitrary and nonsensical nature of so many of the restrictions makes that absolutely clear.

Extraneus

From MM's link.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently reversed previous recommendations, advising all Americans to wear cloth face masks when out in public, which includes when in the grocery store.

They aren't saying not to wear masks. They're now saying we should, since they don't have to lie to us anymore in order to protect health care workers who might not have had masks if we all went for them before they had enough.

They don’t recommend wearing the N95 respirator masks or surgical masks, which should be reserved for health care workers who are facing a shortage of protective equipment.

See above.

Gloves don’t help much if you’re going to touch your eyes, nose or mouth with them. Rather, experts say, wash your hands with soap and water before going out and when coming home, and use hand sanitizer when out. If you use gloves, choose disposable ones and throw them before getting into your car or as soon as you get home (if you’re walking or taking public transportation).

See the grocery thing above. If touching things can get the virus on your hands, then touching groceries that have been contaminated with the virus can get the virus on your hands.

Old Lurker

Agree, James, except I would have deleted "pretty much" but I know you were just being kind.

I have not seen or heard a single public official who seems to have his/her head screwed on properly in this thing.

Extraneus

Wouldn't surprise me if UPS/FedEx were taking some measures.

My UPS guy is wearing gloves now.

Old Lurker

I trust the CDC and the NIH as much as I trust the FBI Crime Lab and the CIA.

How's that?

Another Bob

"Total testing only happened, and thoughtfully filmed, in certain areas as opposed to the widely reported "Nationally!11!" mantra."

Thanks Mel. Been asking/looking around for that detail, and it was not easy to find.

Rocco

If there's evidence that the virus remains on envelopes for up to 24 hours, that sounds like a great excuse not to send the virus through the mail via mail-in ballots.

lyle

Glass bottles?

I quarantine mine for several years prior to handling.

Steph, if you’re around, could you please straighten everyone again out with the post about the Covid-19 rules you made this past week? It will enlighten everyone. Thanks. 😉

Rocco

Have we seen this? Is Michelle the chosen one?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/michelle-obama-in-talks-with-biden-team-on-endorsement-campaign-involvement-report

lyle

Is Michelle the chosen one?

Haven’t they already run a black man for prez?

jimmyk

My UPS guy is wearing gloves now.

I think amom has called this "glove theater," or something to that effect. Gloves don't do much unless you change them every 5 minutes. Otherwise you're still just as vulnerable if you touch your face. Maybe there's some benefit to being able to discard them when you're done handling packages, as long as you don't get virus on your hands from doing that. But wearing the same gloves for 8 hours is mainly just a symbolic exercise.

The Infamous Ignatz

--Part of the problem is that you can find remnants of the virus on surfaces hours or even days after contamination, but it's not clear that one can get sick from those remnants.--

Exactly.

--If this were a terribly deadly disease I would be more cautious, but it's not, other than for the sick and elderly.--

Latest numbers I could find in a quick search which were from late March show a mortality rate of 10% for those over 85 and that of course includes a great many very sick people who were approaching their own mortality rate at escape velocity already. IOW even if you're over 85 and get it you have a 90% chance of surviving, and of course the rate gets significantly better under that.
Seems to me there are a great many diseases with a greater than 10% chance of killing someone over 85, so it doesn't seem terribly deadly to pretty much anyone.
We can't let those numbers make us callous but neither can we let them make us so sentimental that we act like toddlers.
The safety and Sleeper-like existence the rich West has enjoyed has had the unfortunate effect of infantalizing many people when faced with the difficult things going on outside their orgasmatrons.

MissMarple2

While we are on the subject of experts:

Also, has some sort of business deal with Dr. Fauci regarding viruses.

Rocco

1/ In the working-class Massachusetts town of Chelsea, 32 percent of the population tested positive for viral antibodies (!) - meaning they have already been infected and recovered - 16 times the rate known to be infected.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1251463583197773824

The Infamous Ignatz

--Gloves don’t help much if you’re going to touch your eyes, nose or mouth with them.--

--I think amom has called this "glove theater," or something to that effect.--

Heh. Guy in front of me in line last night at the local grocery store described watching one gal exiting a store and removing her glove by biting the tips of the fingers and tugging.

I guess culling the herd is part of herd immunity, no?

MissMarple2

Vaccines I have had:

Smallpox
Polio
Diptheria-percussis-tetanus (DPT)

That's it.

I am immune to chickenpox and measles, having had them when I was a kid. I had flu once in college back in the 70's, and have never had it since. No flu shot, either. I stay away from people during the winter flue season and wash my hands.

There is no way in hell I am getting a Bill Gates vaccine to TRACK me and keep track of whether or not I have had a coronavirus-19 shot.

The Infamous Ignatz

--1/ In the working-class Massachusetts town of Chelsea, 32 percent of the population tested positive for viral antibodies (!) - meaning they have already been infected and recovered - 16 times the rate known to be infected.--

Intentionally seeking herd immunity at the start would have been pretty risky because the numbers available then would have meant a pretty good sized disaster. But if by the end of the month it is increasingly clear this things' mortality rate is anywhere near the flu's and even if considerably higher under, say, an admittedly arbitrary limit of 1% mortality, anyone advocating continued lockdowns or even some tentative timid toe-testing has something other than pubic health and well being as a motive.

Another Bob

"Guy in front of me in line last night at the local grocery store described watching one gal exiting a store and removing her glove by biting the tips of the fingers and tugging."

Literally LMAO... need a Kleenex - tears running down my face...

Another Bob

"Vaccines I have had:"

Pretty much the same boat. I did start getting yearly flu shots, mostly because my employer pays for it and brings an outfit into the office to administer them. Too easy not to.

I also got the Shingrix shots. Was strongly advised to do so by my mother who contracted a case of shingles.

I'm kicking around the pneumonia shot too.

Captain Hate

Death to The Cartel

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/4/16/21224465/jalen-green-nba-g-league-ncaa

Another Bob

Back to that woman taking the gloves off with her mouth...

I just remember all the detail involved in the training about how to remove anti-contamination garments from my nuke days. I bet about 99% of glove wearers don't think one thing about it.

MissMarple2

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
3m
Spending the morning speaking to @fema
and Military relative to CoronaVirus. Also, spoke to leaders of various countries including Poland, South Korea and Bahrain. Last night had a very gold conversation with the President of Mexico on numerous topics. Border is very strong!

lyle

https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2020/04/highlights-of-news_18.html

ITEM 15: Market Watch reported, "National Public Radio is planning significant cost cuts as the corona virus pandemic hits sponsorship and donation revenue, the public broadcaster's chief executive, John Lansing, said in a memo to staff.

"NPR is facing a budget deficit of between $30 million and $45 million through its 2021 fiscal year, Mr. Lansing said in the Wednesday memo.

That’s just too damn bad.

Rocco

Lock the door, throw away the key, there's someone in my head but it's not me.

https://twitter.com/MarianneZirkle/status/1251198465683619845

Another Bob

"anyone advocating continued lockdowns or even some tentative timid toe-testing has something other than pubic health and well being as a motive"

Yeah, it's ass-covering. Nobody has the necessary brains or balls to make a judgment call. We must wait until the evidence makes the required path clear.

Even if that means we must destroy the village in order to save it.

I see it in business all the time.

Old Lurker

If I had a river, I would cry it or them Lyle.

Another Bob

No worries lyle. They'll get bailed out.

matt - deplore me if you must

Things we do know:

There is no shortage of ventilators

The mortality rate for those over 75 and for "at risk" is much higher

Stanford study, USS TR, Chelsea and other examinations imply much higher exposure/infection rate vs severe symptoms

Social distancing works.

The Chinese have been exporting large numbers of defective PPE product worldwide.

Wuhan just doubled the number of deaths while the official number of cases in China has remained at @ 83,500 for the past month.

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself


Another Bob

Rocco, we can have all the arguments about Pelosi, Schumer, etc. etc. we want.

But it's literal idiots like that thread that are the problem. What do we do about them?

lyle

More Surber:

https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2020/04/we-funded-red-chinas-world-dominance.html

This is infuriating. But then, you know that.

Tom R

and it looks more and more like the hair-on-fire, suspend-the-Constitution, lock-the-cell-block-down-screws contingent had us destroy the economy for nothing or very very little.
And the worst of it is, if you press the "experts" they can't even say that we saved any lives.

It’s actually pretty easy to estimate how many lives were saved. Take the graph of actual deaths and at the point where the curve starts to flatten (thanks to social distancing) just change the plot of the graph to keep rising at the exponential rate it was increasing prior to the flattening. Once that is done compare the differences in the two plots.

I thinks as the 2020 election draws nearer Team Trump will be showing those two plots as proof his policies to get the country thru the pandemic worked.

Another Bob

"Social distancing works."

Not sure that's been proven yet matt.

matt - deplore me if you must

aBob, relative to idiots, that's where Darwin comes in.

lyle

What do we do about them?

Nuke them from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure. 😬

Another Bob

"that's where Darwin comes in"

When?

MissMarple2

🗣Listen up @NYGovCuomo @BilldeBlasio‼️‼️

*THIS* is what a REAL Governor & REAL Leadership looks like! He knows how to govern his state and doesn’t wait on or blame the federal government!

💥Meet fabulous @tatereeves!

He knows how to RUN HIS STATE!🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/wNQEGhqoET

— Jali_Cat{⭐️} (@Jali_Cat) April 18, 2020

Link goes to video of Neil Cavutol asking Governor Tate Reeves of Mississippi whenther he has the resources to do the testing for the coronavirus.

I figured people were tired of Governor Cuomo complaining and whining.

Old Lurker

We all know what "Credentialed Morons" are.

Do they come as "Uncredentialed" too?

Old Lurker

The only way Trump comes out looking good in this is compared to all the others.

Tom R

Not sure that's been proven yet matt.

Sure it has. The actual number of deaths compared to predicted number of deaths is much lower and will almost certainly be a pro-Trump campaign talking point all the way to the election.

jimmyk

Yeah, it's ass-covering.

That's what I said above. They're doubling down rather than admit they were wrong.

Another Bob

Just stop Tom. Please.

The predicted number of deaths had zero, zip, nada relationship with facts. It was a wild-ass guess. We also discovered HC+Z and other things.

That Trump might use it for political purposes (and I don't think he will) doesn't establish your desired outcome as a fact.

This is a massive weakness with virtually every one of your posts.

The Infamous Ignatz

--It’s actually pretty easy to estimate how many lives were saved. Take the graph of actual deaths and at the point where the curve starts to flatten (thanks to social distancing) just change the plot of the graph to keep rising at the exponential rate it was increasing prior to the flattening. Once that is done compare the differences in the two plots.--

But that's not how diseases work. If it was the exponential curve would never flatten and we'd all die of it.
SARS was not too easy to contract so it could be bottled up.
Obviously the CCP bug is not going to be bottled up. So if everyone will be exposed, as most epidemiologists say, then everyone who was going to get it will get it anyway.
Perhaps you can argue some lives will be saved later once everyone is anti-malarialed, deloused and dewormed but we'll never know how many or even if it will be a significant number. Perhaps a few were saved now by preventing overloading of the hospital system.
But it is not clear at all a significant number will be saved and it's even less clear the tremendous damage being done was worth it.

Another Bob

In case anyone hasn't noticed, "social distancing" (and I hate that term) was a euphemism for "shutdown".

There aren't very many fans of that right now.

Another Bob

And Trump himself is shouting "LIBERATE" at all the states who went the most overboard about "social distancing".

Buckeye

One thing this CCP virus debacle should teach us is we need more emphasis on STEM education K through grad school.

There is no good reason for us importing half a million Chinese “students” to provide the manpower for our research labs.

We aren’t that fucking stupid. Or are we?

henry

Protest pics at link

@maciverwisc

Thousands #protest @GovEvers' decision to extend #SaferAtHome through May 24th in Brookfield on Sat. morning. #WIright #WIpolitics #coronavirus #tcot

https://twitter.com/maciverwisc/status/1251547536202125312?s=21

Tom R

AB @ 12:26

I don't think anyone was ever a fan of social distancing. I think the large majority of rational Americans realized the threat of COVID 19 and willingly made the self sacrifice to stay at home. I also think the large majority of that subset of Americans were only willing to make the sacrifice for a few weeks, which have now passed, and now they are ready for things to start returning to normal.

matt - deplore me if you must

@ 50% (+/- 19,000) of all deaths nationwide are in metropolitan New York. Metro Los Angeles, with a roughly similar population base has @ 625.

What ar we learning?

The Infamous Ignatz

The cool thing is you just start your legs at the top of the stairs and they walk themselves down;

Another Bob

Models have no self-respect whatsoever.

The Infamous Ignatz

--What ar we learning?--

The hated automobile saved ~18,500 lives?

Another Bob

"What ar we learning?"

That living in densepack cities (like progs want us to) is not the thing to do?

(Though I like Ig's reply better to convey the same point.)

Tom R

Iggy @ 12:25

I am not going to pretend to be an armchair epidemiologist but I think the probability chances are close to 99.99% that if there had been no social distancing shutdown that the plot of the graph of actual deaths would still be climbing at a similar exponential rate that they were before the flattening of the curve began.

You are correct that like all other viruses in past history the curve would eventually start to flatten but we don't know when that would have occurred for COVID 19. It would likely lasted for several months. Knowing that, I think it's still pretty easy to get a decent estimate of how many lives were saved and I fully expect Team Trump to start focusing on that as the election draws nearer.

The Infamous Ignatz

I have a lot of respect for this model;

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Wilson/Plame