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April 05, 2020

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Threadkiller

Amom, I left a comment for you at the end of the last thread.

https://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2020/04/drafting-doctors.html?cid=6a00d83451b2aa69e20240a4f8c839200d#comment-6a00d83451b2aa69e20240a4f8c839200d


Sorry about haranguing you.

lyle

I too agree it was not a deliberate release.

I still think it was. But if it wasn’t deliberate, I think we can be pretty damn sure it would have been used as a bioweapon at some point in the future.

MJW

Another example of experts who should know better. On the very website I just mentioned, RxList, there's a fairly interesting article on CV-19 treatments. However, the article says, "For centuries people have turned to hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to fight malaria." Considering chloroquine was discovered in 1934, and hydrochloroquine later, I don't think they've been used for centuries. No doubt it had the related drug quinine in mind. It's a relatively insignificant error, but it still bugs me.

boris

"is the claim that they "made" it, or they discovered it and were doing research on it?"

I read (somewhere) about researchers from several countries being invited to investigate some new virus discovered at the Wuhan lab a moth or so before it got out.

Threadkiller

For centuries

The 20th and the 21st centuries.

;-)

lyle

Either way, criminally irresponsible, on the level of a war crime.

Yep!

anonamom

TK--just saw your very gracious apology and explanation at 10:27, which I of course accept with appreciation.
Everyone's tempers are frayed right now.

We will be setting up similar sleeping arrangements to what you described come Tuesday, when I hit the decks for the first time since Covid reared its ugly head here. By chance, I've only worked one day this past month.
But the other night, when I was falling asleep with my head on my husband's shoulder, I thought" I can't do this if I might be breathing out Covid all over him."

Luckily, plenty of empty bedrooms.

There's a change in the mood, as people move in to week four.

I found this message on my phone this morning from my oldest, who is married:
If we get sick, we are coming home.

As they should.

Jack is Back!

If it was an intentional bioweapon then whynot target people of military age which it does not.

The "big stink" is actually "The Great Stink", by Roemary Ashton. The title of the book is "One Hot Summer: Dickens, Darwin, Disraeli and the Great Stink of 1858". A great read.

anonamom

jimmyk, you think we don't create bioweapons?

I honestly not know a thing about this subject, but I will be more surprised to learn we don't than that we do.

GUS

They seem to share a disdain for GOD as well.

D

I agree with Clarice and Extraneus.
It escaped from the lab and no amount of spin and cover-up will save China.
I like Marsha Blackburn’s idea of China forgiving part of our debt.I hate that we borrowed so much money from them.

Jack is Back!

anonamom,

Do we create BioWeapons? Ever hear of Ft. Detrick, MD?

According to the Torygraph, there are declines in new cases and deaths in Italy, Spain, France and elsewhere in Europe.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/05/light-end-tunnel-coronavirus-rates-fall-across-europes-worst/

Wouldn't it explode a lot of Libs heads if its basically gone by Easter:)

Alison

@jimmyk - I am re-reading the Patrick O'Brien novels about the Royal Navy in the early 1800s. The two main characters are Jack Aubrey and Stephen Maturin. They are terrific if you like English history and/or military sailing ships. There are 20 completed books. Highly recommend.

Threadkiller

Thanks, Amom. Stay safe.

GUS

China lied and hid the truth. They still are.
Trump cut off travel to and fro, and was called a XENOPHOBE and RACIST, by the biggest clown in politics for 45 plus years. The LEFT has sided with our enemies AS USUAL. And we haven't yet punished OBAMA, KERRY et al for aiding IRAN.

We won't do shit to CHINA. Double secret probation.

MJW

We were promised an update of the Murray model for yesterday, but now the webpage merely says, "As the pandemic progresses, we are working to incorporate new data about the virus in the US."

I wish they'd explain the seemingly vast overestimate of hospital beds needed. Is it simply wrong; is there something people misunderstand about what the model is forecasting; or is the hospitalization data being released faulty?

Texas Liberty Gal

Hello to everyone. Hope this finds everyone well. My hubby just took the dogs out and they are barking like crazy. As long as Ken doesnt' yell for me I'm ignoring them.

Our pastors had 9 services this morning with only 10 ppl each. I really admire the dedication to the our members. We plan on attending Good Friday service and Easter Sunday.

I've started doing my Jane Fonda exercise from 20 years ago. Fortunately I kept my exercise step and I've been able to find most of the workouts on line. Hope I lose my stomach pouch I've been dragging around for 10 years. Good can come from bad.

Off to take thee dogs for a walk.

Pinandpuller

This Covid 19 mess is nothing more than a psychological attack on our humanity.

Has medical malpractice ever destroyed a country before today?

D

The pandemic in 1918 ,the documentary said ,just disappeared as summer began.I am hoping the same thing happens here.Many stores limiting the number of people, grocery stores included.
Will give a hint about my list:
Met Timothy Busfield after a matinee showing of A Few Good Men on Broadway.
22years later, again in New York saw Josh Gad in The Book of Mormon.Got his autograph.
Ted Danson came to Cleveland to promote the first season of Cheers.
He was on a Morning Show and we took a group of girls in an Oral Communication course to see how the show was produced.
He was very nice and a real person in his conversations.

D

TLG:
How is your husband’s political career and how is your hand doing?

MJW

Wouldn't it explode a lot of Libs heads if its basically gone by Easter:)

Wouldn't their already exploded heads re-explode if hydoxychloroquine was the reason for the decline?

Narciso

Covid tracking shows doubling is up to 6 days but deaths are every 5 days, a gruesome rythmetic as kipling would say.

Jack is Back!

Remember the Hatfill, Ivins controversy about Antra at Ft. Detrick. They were part of this interesting medical research outfit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Medical_Research_Institute_of_Infectious_Diseases

MJW

Covid tracking shows doubling is up to 6 days but deaths are every 5 days

Since deaths lag infections, that would not be unexpected (to phrase in in as noncommittal manner as possible).

Extraneus

MJW, do you have any knowledge or a guess as to when we can expect to see data from the NY clinical trial?

The Infamous Ignatz

Good questions MJW.

The death estimates continue to be pretty accurate. Projected 1360 for yesterday. Date projected was April 1st. Wiki has yesterday's actual total at 1346.
Looks like a week ago he was projecting about 1400 for Apr 4th.

Italy's new case growth rate was below 4% for the first time at about 3.5%. But their new cases remain stuck over 4000 per day for 7 straight days.

MissMarple2

In case you missed the Queen's address, here it is. About 4 minutes, video at the link.

Her Majesty The Queen addresses the UK and the Commonwealth in a special broadcast recorded at Windsor Castle. pic.twitter.com/HjO1uiV1Tm

— The Royal Family (@RoyalFamily) April 5, 2020
Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA

"suggestions for great books to read"

It's not about disease, but I thinking of breaking out The Magus by Fowles to see if I still like it.
What went wrong with that guy? Such a promising start ... then nothing.

Extraneus

Epoch Times:

Chinese Officials Take to Twitter to Spread CCP Virus Disinformation

According to a confidential report cited by La Croix’s Dorian Malovic, the CCP issued an edict to its overseas diplomats. Stating, from the French, “It is imperative that all Chinese ambassadors abroad spread the following message from their Twitter account, or in foreign media,” the diplomats are instructed to say that “the real origin” of the virus “remains unknown.”

“We are trying to find out exactly where it comes from,” they’re instructed to say.

The motivation? “Everything that links China to the virus must be questioned and disappear from all history books,” the edict says.

Chinese embassies abroad were also told to begin calling the virus by the name of each host country. Therefore, the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo should refer to the “Japanese virus”; the embassy in Rome should use “Italian virus,” and so on.

Extraneus

I'm reading a great book, but it's not literature.

Handbook of Bird Biology

The Infamous Ignatz

Germany chugging along with about 6000 new cases per day and mortality rate climbing toward 1.5%.

Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA

"Perhaps it got out accidentally, but WHY were they making it in the first place?"

As A-mom and others noted, every big country has a bioweapons division. Partly for potential offense, also to develop expertise for defensive measures.

Jane

But if it wasn’t deliberate, I think we can be pretty damn sure it would have been used as a bioweapon at some point in the future.

I completely agree.

I'm always shocked at that stuff. Live your life and be grateful!

The Infamous Ignatz

South Korea stays under 100 new cases per day but mortality heading for 2%.

MissMarple2

Well, you guys can think it was just clumsiness.

Myself, I am looking askance at Chinese restaurants. (Parochial Midwesterner.)

Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA

Anyone care to throw out opinions on how this will resolve?

At the end, will there be a vaccine or treatment that allows the PTB to say "all clear, everyone back in the pool"?

Or will a weakening of the food supply chain force them to say "re-open the economy, let a few people die, let the rest get sick, recover and get on with it"?

jimmyk

US deaths down today vs yesterday for the first time in two weeks. Big drop in new cases too.

The data may not include these though:

BREAKING: A tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for Covid-19. 6 other tigers and lions at the zoo are also showing symptoms. Believed to have been infected by an asymptomatic zoo worker. All doing well. To my knowledge, this is the first animal to test positive in the U.S.

https://twitter.com/natashaldaly/status/1246900371706036228

clarice

Boris--it's as if someone sucked the brains right out of their heads.

Buckeye

I also think that the release was accidental.

Nonetheless, the circumstances of how the Harvard research guy was arrested, and the timing was no coincidence.

I think there is a lot going on that we can’t be told.

Extraneus

I think there is a lot going on that we can’t be told.

I hope so.

The Infamous Ignatz

There won't be a vaccine for some time. The country won't and can't wait for that.
I believe pressure will mount from the private sector for some form of quarantining the vulnerable and letting everyone else out of their cages will occur eventually with or without the consent of the government and the epidemiologists and Bill Effin Gates.

Pinandpuller

COVID 19 is the Al Gore of viruses.

Captain Hate

a piece of shit.

No kidding, Joan. How do these people avoid physical beatdowns?

Sardonic irony!

Extraneus

There won't be a vaccine for some time.

If ever.

Threadkiller

Cashill:

https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/coronavirus-not-kill-seth-rich/

macthenaif

Oregon COVID-19 update (short version): We are down to 1 or 2 new hospitalizations per day. Looks like we peaked about 10 days ago.

Governor Brown requested 140 ventilators from the Feds, got them, and sent them all to New York. Nuff said.

MJW

MJW, do you have any knowledge or a guess as to when we can expect to see data from the NY clinical trial?

Almost unbelievably, last week Fauci said something about having results from the clinical trials in a few months. I can't really believe they'd really be conducted on such a lackadaisical schedule, but it does reveal how people like him think.

I have no special knowledge or particular insight (so I shouldn't even speculate), but I would expect the actual trial to last at least a week, and perhaps more, with the data analysis requiring maybe a week. Keep in mind that in a double-blind trial the researchers don't know until the trial ends who was treated with the drug; so they can't say in the middle of it, "This stuff works great!" Sometimes there's a separate ethics panel monitoring the results, mostly to catch any adverse effects of the treatment. They're no doubt sworn to secrecy, since revealing anything would undermine the double-blind aspect.

Pinandpuller

This is the dumbest shit I’ve seen since I was at a high school football game in Gillette, WY in 1988 and a rumor was going around that some White Supremacists were going to start some trouble.

Another Bob

“ I believe pressure will mount from the private sector for some form of quarantining the vulnerable and letting everyone else out of their cages will occur eventually with or without the consent of the government”

If we start seeing serious pressure on the food supply, this ends immediately.

Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma

BBC is reporting that Boris Johnson has been admitted to the hospital.

Another Bob

Trump needs to seriously think about throwing Fauci over the side. Fauci seems to be oblivious to the economic damage.

Another Bob

Anyone have any clue why limitations on domestic travel weren’t instituted?

Nothing preventing a carrier from the hottest of hotspots in Queens from ambling over to LGA, with an ever cheaper air ticket, and head somewhere basically untouched by the virus.

clarice

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/infectious-disease-modeling-whats-the-track-record.php

Interesting read.

MissMarple2

Bryan Llenas
@BryanLlenas
A startlingly high number of NYC MTA employees have died from COVID-19, mostly workers from buses/subways. (Higher than NYPD/FDNY combined by about double).

*22 have died
*5,430 MTA employees are on home quarantine
*1,092 tested positive for COVID-19.
===================
Lucas Tomlinson
@LucasFoxNews
·
2h
More transit workers in NYC have tested positive for Covid-19 than entire U.S. military right now

The Infamous Ignatz

SARS 1 was only one province over from Hubei in 03.
Since its R0 is 2-4 it's not exactly clear to me how it was contained so effectively, especially since the CCP was even more negligent in alerting anyone then.

Regardless, they have continued to research and keep up their guard against SARS 1, so it isn't surprising if they had coronaviruses in what I have seen described as a CDC facility in Wuhan [as opposed to a bioweapons lab].

I agree with Ext that the likely result of this is going to be rather grave for China in the long run. If it was an intentional release it would not be unlike the Japanese launching a brilliant surprise attack on Tokyo on Dec 7th 1941, although I suppose that would have been a better choice for the Japanese in the long run.

MJW

Does anyone have a link to the daily data the CDC uses to compare to the model? I've been using the data at The Covid Tracking Project, but it's updated at 4:00 PM Eastern time, and seems to be shifted relative to the death data shown for the Murray model.

Jack Lillywhite

Food supply logistics in a nutshell. A stat I saw was 90% more people home bound. Eating there not at the deli next to work. Anybody who has been to Publix or King Kullen or even Citarella can see the difference.

It will take a while for those provisioners to change their supply line schedules to the new reality.

There are going to be a shit load of lessons learned out of this kerfuffle. No matter how much I despise that phrase.

Threadkiller

Trump needs to seriously think about throwing Fauci over the side. Fauci seems to be oblivious to the economic damage.

Sessions Syndrome. Bad press keeps Trump from pitching him in the middle of the pandemic.

lyle

Clarice beat me to that link. Definitely worth a click.

jim nj

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention

The US is a signatory nation.

Article I: Never under any circumstances to acquire or retain biological weapons.

As I understand the treaty it does not ban research into infectious agents or possible counter-measures against them.

clarice

Love this one:https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/363874/

Another Bob

“A stat I saw was 90% more people home bound. Eating there not at the deli next to work.”

The psychology of hoarding is an interesting one.

Meat prices up sharply for anyone else?

The Infamous Ignatz

It really isn't Fauci's job to consider the economic impact. His job is to tell Trump what the bug will do and what steps to mitigate it will do on what time schedule.
It is Mnuchin et al's job to advise Trump on the economic effects of all this.
And in the end it is Trump's job to make the decisions.

The Infamous Ignatz

They haven't changed here yet, AB.

Extraneus

Bad press keeps Trump from pitching him in the middle of the pandemic.

No need to fire the guy, but he could start featuring different people and new faces at the press conferences, and slowly ease Tony out of the limelight.

jim nj

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/british-pm-boris-johnson-admitted-to-hospital-for-tests-over-persistent-coronavirus-symptoms.html

Precautionary tests.

Another Bob

Ig, you know much about the pulp business?

jimmyk

I'd like to hear more about those MTA employees. Drivers don't really interact hands on with the public, so it's a bit puzzling. Maybe they interact a lot with each other and it just spread between them.

hrtshpdbox

My first day at the new (to me) site, Amazon changed their policy literally overnight (which means that yesterday their policy was something different - why do so many writers say "literally" this or that when they don't mean that at all). They handed me a mask when I arrived, encouraged me to throw it away at the end of the day and get a new one tomorrow, and also instructed to take a new pair of gloves each day and throw those away the day-old ones as well (the gloves are sort of amazing, and would last a week if you were pushing boulders uphill with them). Most workers wore the masks, some didn't (I did); I'll bet it's mandatory policy within a day or two.

The down-low inside scoop I can report is that there was not much to do at Amazon today - deliveries from UPS and FedEx hadn't happened and Amazon relies on truckers to bring the product in as much as they do in truckers to carry it away to new destinations. There's a supply chain lesson in there somewhere.

As for me, wow I was glad to be doing something instead of just going crazy inside. And when I left (early, because it's so slow), I found a beautiful day outside, which is invigorating. Amazon was sitting on $55 billion cash at the start of This Problem, so they're certainly going to thrive, but the problem for me personally is that while I successfully fought off, for years, attempts to learn Amazon's "order picker" contraption, which carries you and a cage more than 30 feet in the air to stow and get product, that is now the fate that awaits me daily. Probably just desserts, all things considered.

Pinandpuller

Them: Worldwide Humiliation Ritual

Me: You didn’t say “Simon Says”.

Ralph L

The cuckoo Marquis of Bath, owner of Longleat House, has died of it at 87.

jimmyk

It really isn't Fauci's job to consider the economic impact. His job is to tell Trump what the bug will do...And in the end it is Trump's job to make the decisions.

Which is why Trump ought to limit what Fauci says in public. When Fauci makes pronouncements like the on about waiting for zero deaths before restarting the economy he ties Trump's hands.

Extraneus

Very interesting, hrtshpdbox. Thank you for that report. (Full disclosure: I bought some AMZN a couple of weeks ago.)

The Infamous Ignatz

Almost nothing AB.
California has large, high quality soft wood that isn't suited for the low value pulp market.
Canada and the eastern US dominate pulp and paper mills though I think there are a few in OR and WA

Pinandpuller

Brothers and Sisters: you don’t need “They Live” glasses.

If you see someone in public wearing a mask and they aren’t a geezer, aren’t wearing scrubs or they aren’t cutting grass that’s an alien.

jim nj

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/mainland-china-sees-rise-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21N009

May they have a second wave.

Jane

hrtshpdbox,

Very cool. Despite all the hatred of Bezo's, I'm a fan, simply because he was the best friend in HS of a very conservative friend of mine, and I am in complete admiration of all he accomplished - all by himself.

Jane

A friend of mine in the park, just brought me a big box of gloves. Anyone need any?

Another Bob

Thanks Ig. I’m trying to understand this utterly silly toilet paper shortage.

Latencies in getting the raw material? Or manufacturing capacity? Or logistical issues?

Pinandpuller

A Vegan diet is deficient in zinc?

Well shut my mouth!

hrtshpdbox

Ext, always good to have at least a few shares of AMZN, I think - they've got the brainpower to keep a lot of balls in the air at any given time.

Jane, Bezos can never win; he just donated $100 million to people displaced by COVID fallout, and naturally critics say it's "nothing" compared to his total net worth.

Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma

Logistical issues. 40% of TP is manufactured for commercial use. No one in office buildings/restaurants no need for TP. Different consistency (1 ply and grainy) and frequently not sized for the home market.

Ralph L

Fired TR CO tests positive. DailyMail has alleged details of firing process. Top brass wanted to wait for investigation (When have we heard that before?), but SECNAV thought Trump wanted him gone now.

MissMarple2

Extraneus,

Regarding Fauci: I watch every press conference. President Trump told the press that he brought Fauci in because if he didn't, the press wanted to know if the rumors of a feud were true and it took up all the time. And when he does bring him in, the press asks all sorts of lame brain questions (my words not his).

Myself, I think the solution is to promote him to some position away from the White House.

Jane

IF THE CHINESE WANT TO SPY ON MY CON-LAW OR DISTILLED-SPIRITS LAW CLASSES THEY’RE WELCOME TO, BUT THIS “MISTAKE” IS TROUBLING: Zoom Admits Some Calls Were ‘Mistakenly’ Routed Through China. I wouldn’t use Zoom for anything even vaguely sensitive, at this point. And at this point, if I’d been smart enough to buy Zoom stock two or three months ago, I’d be thinking about selling it as more and more bad news keeps coming out.

I sold mine last week when the news of China connections started to surface.

I also have a few shares of Amazon, and I'm thrilled.

Extraneus

AB, I was thinking it's due to a) initial idiots making like they were worried they'd run out, and b) the fact that it takes up too much space on ships and planes and trucks for its value, so it's low on the priority list. Have you come up with a different or other theory? I agree it's an interesting thing.

Another Bob

“No one in office buildings/restaurants no need for TP.”

That’s for sure. I’m aware of a few restaurants that shifted to takeout that are giving a roll away with an order as a come-on.

GUS

I don't care if it was "on purpose" or not. If you accidentally run over my child, I'll forgive your quicker than if you did it on purpose. In this case HOWEVER it OCCURRED.....RED MF'ING CHINA DID IT TO US.
Tony LaRussa former manager of the Cardinals had an unspoken rule. If you hit one of my players with a pitch.....by accident, I am going to see to it that we "accidentally" hit 2 of yours.

anonamom

I have never had an ethics team monitoring any of the clinical trials I've been involved in, though it's been a while.

Are you a researcher, MJW?

If there appears to be a disparity in patients in a double blind study, they will open the study (to uninvolved colleagues) to see if it is because of the study drug, and even stop the study, in the face of great benefit or great morbidity/mortality.

GUS

On a lighter note. The Marquis of Bath had died, God rest his soul. The EARL of DOUCHE BAG is still hanging in there in Delaware, you know 'the thing'.

MissMarple2

Press conference at 6:45, according to Twitter.

The Infamous Ignatz

I suspect Steph is right but also there has to have been a huge gulf produced in the supply chain by several million imbeciles all deciding to become TP tycoons at the same time. It takes some time for the coiled part of the slinky to catch up with the stretched part especially when everyone now grabs a couple of bundles whenever it pops up.

jim nj

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/us/airport-fires-cars-trnd/index.html

A fire at a Florida airport destroyed more than 3,500 rental cars

Captain Hate

why do so many writers say "literally" this or that when they don't mean that at all

Public schools. Next question?

jim nj

https://www.foxnews.com/science/coronavirus-caused-earth-effectively-stop-shaking

It's still shaking, just not as much. Except around Lyle.

Another Bob

Yeah ext, my current speculation is...

We had some small number of dopes who thought we’d be truly locked down, as in National Guard shooting you on sight or something, who started buying up everything. That triggered the more normal types who just didn’t want to get caught out.

The run drained the warehouses, the factories couldn’t immediately respond due to physical limitations and lack of raw materials. The loggers can’t flip a switch and produce more wood.

Then the logistical problems of getting all the materials moved.

Some may have anticipated the scarcity and bought up stocks to profiteer. This certainly has happened with hand sanitizers and masks.

Buckeye

Anybody who grew up in the era of cloth diapers knows how to survive a TP shortage.

Unpleasant yes, but I’ve dealt with worse crap, pun intended.

Another Bob

Heh...

https://twitter.com/xbradtc/status/1246926290684272640?s=21

Ralph L

Retail TP sales will plummet soon because so many people will have years of it on hand, so spending to increase manufacturing briefly doesn't make sense.

Ralph L

Does anyone remember the juvenile takeoff of the theme song from "Branded"?
Stranded
Stranded on the toilet bowl
What do you do when you're stranded
And you can't reach the roll?

You must prove you're a man
You must wipe it with your hand
You must prove...
Stranded.

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Wilson/Plame