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April 06, 2020

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The Infamous Ignatz

--But the bigger issue is the obvious one: The cornerstone of science is refutability.--

I never said this was refutable science. I said the numbers were useful.
You rightly pointed out clinical trials [refutable science] are all well and good for meds for Covid, but in their absence we do have evidence [useful numbers] to guide us instead.
That principle works for meds for the disease but not the disease itself?

--First, "if...if...if". If we don't know who has it, then we don't know the R0 and we don't know the fatality rate. --

Each case has its own ifs. It keeps being said there is a vast pool of infected people who are undiagnosed. It is possible that's true, but there is as yet no evidence for it, including in South Korea where they were testing like mad from the start. So to say we don't know the R0 or mortality we have to say IF there is a vast pool of already infected then we don't. When someone demonstrates that's the case then that would change all the numbers. But in the absence of any real evidence that's the case are epidemiologists and policy makers supposed to hope it exists and risk the lives of hundreds of thousands or millions of people on that unsubstantiated hope?
This argument also goes against the grain of the video of Dr Wittkowski [and others, perhaps you] who argues, I think persuasively, that the whole approach of general social distancing is the wrong approach because it prevents herd immunity. He argues that preventing the young and healthy from getting it by the current measures will extend the length of the whole thing, not reduce total deaths by much and is therefore the wrong policy. But if it has already swept through the population like wildfire without being noticed, we're already reaching herd immunity and the current policies aren't preventing that. Since testing is apparently going to be much more widespread soon we'll soon figure that out.

Regardless of whether it has or hasn't, it seems to me the correct policy is isolate those most at risk [and possibly particular urban hotspots for a short time] and let everyone else get on with their lives.

The numbers epidemiologists have come up with have played into the question of what ways to respond are politically possible. That stinks because it ties people's hands in the options they can risk taking. And the people advising pretty much all countries say the same thing; hunker down.
Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and even Sweden were all fortunate that the virus never got much of a foothold or if it did it was concentrated in one isolatable area. That area was locked down. In South Korea they tested constantly. In Japan they tested far less stringently but n both cases it remains relatively well contained. But in all of those countries when it has threatened to flare up even they ratchet up the hunker down plans.
Nobody is really pursuing the herd immunity policy and they're doing that mostly based on epidemiologists numbers. To me that is stupid because what those numbers are doesn't change the fact that isolating the vulnerable is the best choice. But arguing, unsuccessfully IMO, that their numbers are so bad as to be useless does not seem to be the way to fix policy because again, it isn't a scientific or statistical problem but a political and herd mentality one.
The only herd immunity people seem to have is to logic. But I don't think you solve that by wishing numbers away we don't like without any foundation for doing so, other than the wish itself. That doesn't seem too logical either.
Ext keeps saying where is the evidence for hydroxywhatever?
Well, me too; where's the evidence the epi guys' numbers are useless? I hear the argument but not the evidence. In fact the only evidence I see is in every single country, no matter how lax or prodigious their testing, the mortality rate increases not decreases, whether they are on the upslope or downslope downslope of the curve.
I hope there is a vast pool of infected because that would make it easier to adopt a better policy. But hope and two bucks gets you a cup of coffee, as a wise man once said.

sbwaters

If I want to burn up battery life, I visit the Washington Times website.

sbwaters

Tweeted in reply:

Says, @ron_fournier, who, 10 years ago, advocated substituting personal views for #journalism at @AP—a disease so pernicious, I still disinfect AP articles every morning. Not #fakenews so much as unreliable. See "Take Back Your News" at Amazon for evidentiary emails to AP.

Captain Hate

Why did he send the letter in the first place if his commander, and his commander's commander, were on the ship with him? If he felt so strongly that something different should have been done he should have registered that matter in a letter to his commander instead of twenty people.

I don't know why the concept of accepting consequences for going outside the chain of command eludes you. All you seem to be concentrating on is how ethical he was in your eyes. And some dogshit source like the Daily Mail that you cherrypick because you agree with it. Maybe those sources aren't very friendly to the Commander in Chief who you claim to support.

James D.

There are not enough facts to determine the truth but it is sounding more and more like the captain received an order to remain at sea which is what prompted him to send the letter to 20+ people.

Here's the only fact that's relevant. We've got a grand total of 5 carriers currently at sea. Captain Crozier took it upon himself to announce to the world that 20% of that capability - capability that might be needed at any moment considering the tensions in the world now - was not available, because he didn't like the answers he got from his superiors.

From where I sit, regardless of how much his crew loves him, he ought to be court-martialed at a minimum.

Threadkiller
In his report McGovern offered the option of voting by proxy, something that would require a change in the House’s rules and a vote of approval. “We would have to change our rules to do that. If one person objected, we would be forced to have a vote and everyone would have to come back and cast a vote,”

It appears that McGovern was working on this prior to March 23rd.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/house-democrats-mull-changing-rules-proxy-voting-amid/story

If he was prepared then The House could have voted on it when they returned to DC to vote for the Super Stimulus.

Massie is all for a temporary vote from home plan, FTR. He just wants peoples’ names on record.

Threadkiller

The first paragraph was supposed to be blockquoted.

The Infamous Ignatz

Doc Murray's projections for US deaths today is 2140 median, 1387-3475 range.
The upper bound is considerably higher than his projection from March 30th but the others are only slightly higher.
Let's hope it continues to stay below his lower bound.

Tom R

Why did he send the letter in the first place if his commander, and his commander's commander, were on the ship with him?

That is a great question that we can only speculate on. If I was in his situation, the only reason I would send the letter is if I got the order to remain at sea and I knew that meant the outbreak was going to keep spreading and eventually infect the entire ship. The mission comes first and you can't fight when the readiness of your ship is severely degraded due to excessive number of incapacitated or quarantined sailors. BTW did you read that historical article I linked the other day of what Teddy Roosevelt did in similar circumstances?

I don't know why the concept of accepting consequences for going outside the chain of command eludes you.

I am well aware of how the chain of command operates. I don't know why you and so many other Trump supporters don't understand that the captain of the ship initially did follow the chain of command. BTW there was only one admiral on the carrier, not two.

PS People link to Daily Mail here all the time here as a alternate source of news because they report on topics that the Fake News media refuses to cover.

James D.

did you read that historical article I linked the other day of what Teddy Roosevelt did in similar circumstances?

Teddy Roosevelt wasn't in command of a significant fraction of the country's warfighting capacity.

Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA

I haven't heard a whisper that Rep Massie would demand an in-person vote on remote HoR voting. He seems to only be concerned about poorly planned, irresponsible spending of Teh People's money so far as I can tell.

Is that incorrect? I agree that it's nearly obligatory to make sly quips about Rep Massie requiring all the HoR's to assemble in person in order to record a vote on remote voting. But he hasn't said anything like that, yes?

The Infamous Ignatz

One possibility for the current dip was mentioned by Dr Birx; it was on a Sunday.
This Sunday just past and the one before both had dips in new cases and deaths.
But that didn't occur in the Sundays before that, but the numbers were much smaller and easier to handle then too.
We'll see. Another day of lower numbers takes us much further off Murray's curve and starts to look like a peak rather than a blip or anomaly, which would be a very good thing.

Momto2

This is worth watching! This man lives across the street from Central Park and volunteered to help. He had never heard of Samaritan's Purse and doesn't agree with many things but he is grateful! So good!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1cMV1myHWA&fbclid=IwAR1kTHV6jHHylcKn3Cgmhg7CQ_K2F9V9RALoU4VKvGbXIoq7VGyPYj7mkEk&app=desktop

jimmyk

You rightly pointed out clinical trials [refutable science] are all well and good for meds for Covid, but in their absence we do have evidence [useful numbers] to guide us instead.
That principle works for meds for the disease but not the disease itself?

IMO not for the unobservable "no mitigation" case. With the drugs we have observational data where we can compare similar patients who did and didn't get the drug treatments, and with enough data control for timing and dosage. Not double-blind, but if carefully done can provide good information. There's no analog for observational data with no mitigation.

Tom R

James D @ 11:49

You should read that Navy Times article on Roosevelt. It is uncanny how history is repeating itself especially since the carrier was named after him.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/04/theodore-roosevelt-captain-followed-in-footsteps-of-ships-namesake-by-writing-bombshell-letter/

The Infamous Ignatz

--I don't know why you and so many other Trump supporters don't understand that the captain of the ship initially did follow the chain of command.--

I'm a Trump supporter and I understand he initially followed the chain of command.
I also understand that unless you are given an illegal order you stay within the chain of command, even if you don't like the answer you got.
If you go outside that chain of command without having been issued an illegal order you're in the wrong and are going to have serious consequences.
He did. He wasn't. He was. And he is. Case closed.

Threadkiller

You are correct, Jim. Massie recently tweeted a reaffirmation of that position. He said House leadership is throwing up obstacles that are stalling plans to vote remotely.
It is funny how the rules set forth in the Constitution were of no concern when they were going to have 2 members of The House “unanimously” consent to the largest spending bill in the history of the world, but now that a plan to vote from home is starting to stir in The House, suddenly Leadership cites Constitutional concerns.

Buckeye

Kissinger and the Davos Men have blood on their hands; it's all going to come out.

Yawn.

Wake me up when somebody gets their head blown off.

Threadkiller

Case closed.

Clearly you are not up to date on the fact that Teddy Roosevelt was afraid of Malaria.

Tom R

I also understand that unless you are given an illegal order you stay within the chain of command, even if you don't like the answer you got.

Correct. No one is obligated to follow an illegal order. Do you extend that to what your conscience tells you is an unethical order (remain at sea) that increases the chances of all the sailors under your command getting infected?

The Infamous Ignatz

--IMO not for the unobservable "no mitigation" case.--

People keep saying that but it doesn't seem to me to be true. As I have said from the start, the math for basic epidemiology [and 'basic' pretty much means unmitigated] is not that complicated. It's not very precise, but unlike say climate science, there just aren't that many numbers or factors.
It isn't true because we have thousands of largely unmitigated epidemics from the past that have either been observed and documented by contemporaries or have been studied by later parties.
Now, those observations and later studies don't lend themselves to a precise number like the speed of light. But just because the numbers aren't precise doesn't render them useless anymore than the wide range of projections of certain actions renders economic projections useless.
It is usually when politics and, yes I'm going to use that term again, confirmation bias enter the picture that we get useless numbers. In the numbers of unmitigated epidemics there are so few fundamental variables as to make politics and bias a lot harder to introduce than in economics or climate science. Not impossible but more difficult.

Comanche Voter

Miss Marple you've got a stronger stomach than me when it comes to watching Trump's press conferences. I know that he can and does swat down reporters like flies (which after all are adult maggots). He's on his game and can return serve as it were with the best of them. But the whole spectacle is too much like bear baiting, and I can only take it in short bits.

Tom R

TK @ 12:07

Clearly you are not up to date with Trump's comments that maybe the captain should not have been punished for what he did.

Captain Hate

Crozier’s firing sparked a maelstrom of criticism, with a mother of one Roosevelt sailor telling Navy Times she was “devastated” by the captain’s dismissal, adding that Crozier “risked his own livelihood. That is so hard to do. Not a lot of men, not a lot of women, not a lot of people out there who would do that for others.”

This is the type of emotional filler that belongs in a letter to the editor instead of a fact based account of what happened. Now DJT is stuck having the unfree press attack him and the brass on what should have been an internal matter because Crozier broadcast this to too many people.

Threadkiller

that increases the chances of all the sailors under your command getting infected?

He looked pretty concerned when all the sailors were elbow to elbow cheering for him.

(Hat Tip to some clown at The Loon-osphere who tried to reason with Patterico by using Patterico’s own observation.)

Threadkiller

Clearly you are not up to date with Trump's comments that maybe the captain should not have been punished for what he did.

Of course I am. Just like how I pointed out to you, many years, how this works.

The Infamous Ignatz

--Correct. No one is obligated to follow an illegal order. Do you extend that to what your conscience tells you is an unethical order (remain at sea) that increases the chances of all the sailors under your command getting infected?--

Your question answers itself. Unethical is in the eye of the beholder and is not the same as illegal.
So he beheld it and now it's going to bite him in the ass, as it should.
If Trump let's him off the hook he's doing no favors to discipline or morale.
Now, I don't think for a minute he should be court martialed, nor did he put our readiness at risk. It was already well known we had Covid cases on ships and it coming into port was no surprise to the CCP.
But being relieved of command for his stupid action, whatever he based it on, seems perfectly legit to me.

Threadkiller

I just reread what you wrote, Tom. I think you may be playing a word game.

Did Trump say he shouldn’t be punished or did he say he shouldn’t have his life ruined? I am under the impression that Trump is looking into the severity of the punishment.

Melinda

TK-

Would "Vote from Home" enhance the Congressional "Debate Immunity" and thus fully create a "Congressional Citizen" Class, immune to arrest or indictment?

Threadkiller

Do you have any appliance or car problems, Tom? I would be more than happy to help. I think it would be nice if your JOM contributions were less confrontational and more like what you see regularly in this community.

I am in no way telling you how to behave. I am just wondering if there is anything else you would like to bring to JOM.

lyle

How in the world could anyone know that there’s a 392yo shark? I’m serious. How could that even be known?

Threadkiller

That is a great question, Mel. Would it also apply to the staff that actually does everything anyways?

Neo

My brother ordered something from China a while back. He writes..

My package is still sitting in Wuhan and has been since January 15th. Until it ships, I will not believe China has recovered from their CCP virus.

Jane

Yesterday was supposed to be the start of the worst week of the virus, and it was the best day of the virus. I really am not thrilled about Fauci and I want Trump to find some other advisors.

It's time to get back to life!!!

Narciso

They asked it of course.

Melinda

To quote Mr. Abbott, "Naturally."

Captain Hate

(Hat Tip to some clown at The Loon-osphere who tried to reason with Patterico by using Patterico’s own observation.)

I love how the chief monkey often claims that's not what he said or implied, particularly because his stated occupation involves clear and convincing communications with others.

lyle

I guess, narc. Maybe they found its birth certificate?

Extraneus

Andrew Cuomo and Joe Biden Tied in National Poll of Democrat Likely Voters…

The Infamous Ignatz

One other small point. You can plausibly argue we should do a cost/benefit analysis of how to respond to an epidemic.

And you can plausibly argue that it is impossible [or that it's possible but hasn't occurred] to come up with any meaningful numbers for what a mitigated or unmitigated epidemic might cause in the number of dead, disabled and hospitalized.

But can you argue both simultaneously? If the epidemiologists' numbers are useless how do you know either the cost or the benefit of taking or not taking certain actions? And if you can't then people who argue we need to just open things back up because the economic costs are too high are flying by the seat of their pants just as much as the useless epidemiologists, aren't they?
The same people who scoff at models that have no particular skill and say we can never know what would have happened if this or that was never pursued will then turn around and state that the number of suicides from a devastated economy will be greater than the number of deaths from this bug; a number they already stated is unknowable while their own number number is even more unknowable.

I may be veering toward preaching a sermon again, but it seems to me the first casualty of this epidemic has been logic and clear thinking. It is a morass of uncertainties, but isn't that when you need logic and clear thinking the most?

Captain Hate

lyle,

According to the tweeter it's based on a growth rate of the fish apparently being constant through time. He admits that it's an estimate but is reasonably confident in it.

Old Lurker

TK: "...you wrote, Tom. I think you may be playing a word game."

Ya think!

That is how fights are picked the fastest.

Tom R

I think it would be nice if your JOM contributions were less confrontational and more like what you see regularly in this community.

Once again you confirm you love to dish out the snark but you resort to comments like the above when you are the recipient of it. What a hypocrite. Maybe practice what you preach and stop being confrontational yourself?

PS I won't ever beg you to stop replying to me like you did the other day to me.

Melinda

I thought that happened in the Great Diet War of 2019?

Jane

Ex,

They should be tied at zero!

peter

How in the world could anyone know that there’s a 392yo shark?

They heard the shark's mother telling labor stories?

The Infamous Ignatz

--How in the world could anyone know that there’s a 392yo shark? I’m serious. How could that even be known?--

It presented a nine layered xerox of its birth certificate?

Buckeye

Would "Vote from Home" enhance the Congressional "Debate Immunity" and thus fully create a "Congressional Citizen" Class, immune to arrest or indictment?

Might enhance the opportunities for “extrajudicial” discipline however:)

lyle

Thanks, CH. Since Pelosi is about that same age, I guess the shark could plausibly be.

JM Hanes

TomR:

"Do you extend that to what your conscience tells you is an unethical order (remain at sea) that increases the chances of all the sailors under your command getting infected?"

"Increases the chances" is a pretty iffy defense concept here. Good grief. Uninfected passengers were quarantined on cruise ships too. I don't recall that being considered a huge ethical dilemma, however sad or hard a decision it might have been.

Threadkiller

It was the usual crap from him, CH. I took a look at his vile take on the firing of Captain Complainer and did my usual scrolling to the piss yellow comments to see who got the best of him. Some idiot quoted Patterico’s own words that noted how all the sailors didn’t respect social distancing when they gave the cheering send off. The idiot’s point was essentially, “if the captain was worried about the health of the crew, why did he allow them to stand so close?”

Patterico frothed at the mouth something about “he was fired so he couldn’t command them anymore!” Then he really got wound up.

Hahaha!

lyle

They heard the shark's mother telling labor stories?

FTW, peter!!

Jane

I am under the impression that Trump is looking into the severity of the punishment.

TK.

That's exactly what he said - beginning with "He's a good man. I certainly didn't get the impression he was going to let him off, he just didn't want his life ruined.

lyle

https://spectator.org/blame-trump/

Neo

Trump owns between $29 and $435 worth of Sanofi stock, a maker of Hydroxychloroquine

JM Hanes

Speaking of labor stories.... I always though I had a tough experience with childbirth, but I have been humbled by the women of JOM who make my labor sound like a picnic in comparison to their own. Rock on ladies!

Narciso

He was reassigned not stripped of rank right.

Threadkiller

PS I won't ever beg you to stop replying to me like you did the other day to me.

Sounds queer, but go ahead.

Tom R

Unethical is in the eye of the beholder and is not the same as illegal.

Agreed. It's ingrained in military training at all levels to take care of the health and welfare of the troops you lead. I'll stick with my original position that no one should ever be punished for doing the ethical right thing.

nor did he put our readiness at risk. It was already well known we had Covid cases on ships and it coming into port was no surprise to the CCP.

Bingo. We agree on that. That rules out the argument he put national security at risk. Considering there was nothing in the letter critical of Trump, what was the actual harm in the letter that warranted him getting relieved of command?

If Trump let's him off the hook he's doing no favors to discipline or morale.

Disagree. IMO the optics on this are extremely bad for Trump and if the reports are correct the morale on the ship has plummeted. I think Trump realized the SecNavy mishandled this issue and that is why he is considering stepping in to fix it.

mike in houston

My God, what has happened to my former state?

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/wow_connecticuts_governor_really_should_resign_if_he_did_this.html

Threadkiller

Thanks, Jane. That is what I thought I heard.

lyle

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/04/hamas-wants-americans-dead-coronavirus-democrats-daniel-greenfield/

Thousands of Americans have died of the coronavirus. But ‘Gaza Firster’ Democrats don’t care.

Eight Senate Democrats, including Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren, dispatched a four-page letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, demanding to know what America was doing about the coronavirus.

Not in America. In Gaza.

According to the Senate letter, “as of March 24, the first two cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the Gaza Strip.”

That’s two cases. Two. The United States has over 200,000 as of now.

But don’t you dare question their patriotism, wingnutz.

Melinda

"Of course our banks are solvent. Why do you ask?

And no, we would never encourage anyone to front run decisions we coord, I mean, MAKE over the weekend and announce late on a Tuesday."

-Things Christine LaGarde, Chicago resident for 25 years, would never say out loud.

GUS

TomR, don't bother to address me. You don't speak for anyone else here on this blog. I have friends here, you don't. No do NOT address me again.

Tom R

I certainly didn't get the impression he was going to let him off, he just didn't want his life ruined.

Getting relieved of command pretty much ruins any captains chances of getting promoted to admiral. Command of a carrier is probably the most elite command in the Navy so a successful tour of duty almost guarantees they will one day get promoted to admiral. In this case the captain's future career progression was indeed ruined.

rse

So Sad. Too Bad.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8195697/Meghan-Harry-tough-time-paying-security.html

Rocco

I couldn't resist, even though I'll be singing this damn song all day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=106&v=L89nN03pBzI&feature=emb_logo

Melinda

DoD Acting IG Fine removed and replaced.

Tom R

Gus @ 12:49

Numerous posters here have pleaded with you to stop the personal attacks. I will stop addressing you when you cease the personal attacks. The ball is 100% in your court. All you have to do is exercise self-control. If you can't control yourself then it's your own fault.

Threadkiller

In this case the captain's future career progression was indeed ruined.

#WordGame

Captain Hate

Being a Captain for an aircraft carrier is very elite and I don't think he'll approach that status going forward. If he deep sixed his career for his ethical beliefs I guess I've got to respect that.

I once went over my boss's head at work because of something I felt very strongly about. When she torpedoed me, I thought "fuck it" and went over her head; I didn't get as much satisfaction as I wanted but the guy told me at the conclusion "you won't reap any negative consequences for telling me this". My boss's boss was eventually let go.

GUS

sociopath.

Threadkiller

I will stop addressing you when you cease the personal attacks. The ball is 100% in your court.

Self control is the other person’s responsibility.

rse

Speaking of airlines--

https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/cop-sues-united-airlines-for-refund-after-trip-canceled-due-to-coronavirus/

Captain Hate

I was still typing that last comment before I saw Tom's 12:50.

Tom R

If he deep sixed his career for his ethical beliefs I guess I've got to respect that.

That is why his sailor's are treating him like a hero and why this is such bad optics for Trump.

Narciso

John nolte has some words, lol.

Melinda

Immediate boss went neutron war daily when I did that and saved corp a shitload from his stupidity. Put up with that for nearly two years as I was untouchable to him.

He eventually lost everything from pledging unvested TBTF stock into forced retirement.

JM Hanes

rse:

"Total Pollen Count for 04/07/2020: 4354"

I meant to make a list of everything in bloom last week, so I think there are a couple I've already forgotten below. This early spring has totally scrambled the usual order. Things that used to bloom in sequence all bust out together:

Cherries
Jonquils
Viburnum
Quince
Redbud
Wisteria
Bluets
Lilac
Dogwoods
And even an Osmanthus which would normally bloom in the fall!

That doesn't include deciduous & evergreen tree pollens. Small wonder that the count is astronomical.

The Osmanthus makes me wonder if maybe it's less the early spring than the lack of winter. I'm lucky not be badly afflicted with reactions, myself. The biggest problem for me comes later. We really need a big chunk of freezing winter temperatures to kill off some portion of pests like yellow jackets and sundry varmints. I already seem to have a huge population of busily battling bumblebees trying to claim my porch. Fortunately, I've discovered a lavender based mosquito repellent which actually seems to work pretty well. The smell of lemon eucalyptus was getting harder and harder to tolerate. I save the DEET for malarial pestholes.

lyle

https://victorygirlsblog.com/jonathan-karl-gets-woodshed-treatment-from-trump/

She links to a Twitter video of Fauci giving a thumbs-up to Karl while exiting the presser? Has anyone seen this? WTF?

Extraneus

I'll be singing this damn song all day.

I hope it works for me, Rocco! I've been dealing with a Heaven by Brian Adams earworm for over a week.

Melinda

lyle-

Purportedly, Karl saluted him on the way out, which Fauci returned with that finger gun, thumb hammer and smirk.

lyle

Thanks, Melinda. Fauci needs to be put out to pasture.

Melinda

I think he's been paying out rope on Fauci. No proof, just smells right. I think he's another Malthusiast.

clarice

lyle, I saw it.Karl saluted Fauci and Fauci responded with a friendly finger point.

Tom R

sociopath

https://www.everydayhealth.com/emotional-health/psychological-projection-dealing-with-undesirable-emotions/

JM Hanes

Melinda:

"China plays the race card, the last ditch effort of all failed debates."

Race = the new Godwin's Law.

henry

Drive through voting today in Norway, WI. Not too many cars, but disappointed to sit in a line of cars without getting a cheeseburger at the end. From what I’ve seen on twitter, in person lines are short to non existent. We won’t know who won until Monday. The US Supremes let that bit of the ruling stand.

rse

JMH-

I actually went out in it earlier for a walk and cut about a minute off my best time for the route. Anyone knowing atl can imagine climbing pill hill from the J Fy side is a bit like heading up a mountain.

My kids told me to cross the road when I got to the top if I saw anyone in scrubs.

My favorite labor story is the diva's due date being hubby's 40th b'day. A couple of glasses of champagne with friends late that afternoon had me in labor within the hour while waiting for dinner to be ready. Wish I had known that relaxer technique with 1st two as they were each week late. For years the diva would tell hubby she was his 40th b'day present.

The Infamous Ignatz

Where I come from a finger gun and a falling thumb are either an indication you just got shot and deserved it or is an acknowledgment you just got shot with no value judgment attached.
I suppose it could be the same as a thumb's up but there's Tom's eye of the beholder thing again.

lyle

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/experts-pseudo-experts-and-other-progressive-conceits.php

Hayward.

Thanks, Clarice. So it was apparently innocent?

Tom R

Iggy @ 1:15

Which post are you responding to?

The Infamous Ignatz

The one about Fauci.

Neo

RFA noted that it could not independently verify that the Chinese Communist Party was burning coronavirus patients alive, nor has the Communist Party confirmed or denied the rumors. Yet the rumors persist that, to make room for new patients in Wuhan’s overcrowded hospitals, medical staff chose older patients less likely to survive the infection and shipped them to incinerators while they were still alive and conscious.
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/04/07/report-wuhan-funeral-homes-burned-people-alive/

jimmyk

“ But can you argue both simultaneously? If the epidemiologists' numbers are useless how do you know either the cost or the benefit of taking or not taking certain actions?”

I thought I’d said this, but it would certainly be possible to look at different types and degrees of mitigation versus outcomes around the country and the world. I’m practice it might be hard because so many places are doing the same thing, and a lot of variables come into play. But not impossible. That’s what Hinderaker was sort of doing in a very naive way in that piece you linked. Gauging the economic cost of different policies would be relatively easy.

jimmyk

IN practice.

MissMarple2

Comanche,

I don't have cable and I can't trust the press, so I watch the press conferences to see what's going on. I agree that sometimes they are a little uncomfortable, but I want to know what's going on and for me, it's the only way I will know.

My neighbor, who DOES have cable, watches them every day. A blue-collar retiree, she is fascinated with them, as she didn't know much about the workings of the public health offices nor the White House press.

What I don't know is how many others watch them, and how many of them watch them all the way through.

Old Lurker

Mel: "Fauci returned with that finger gun, thumb hammer"

In public schools that will get you expelled and perhaps arrested.

The Infamous Ignatz

I knew that cutish* imbecile in Michigan had effed up the galvanized hydroxycut deal for treating Covid but didn't realize just how much of a spanner the idiot Cuomo had tossed into the works in NY.
The Beginning of the End — In Spite of Governors Gretchen Whitmer and Andrew Cuomo.


No pharmacist shall dispense hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine except when written as prescribed for an FDA-approved indication; or as part of a state approved clinical trial related to COVID-19 for a patient who has tested positive for COVID-19, with such test result documented as part of the prescription. No other experimental or prophylactic use shall be permitted, and any permitted prescription is limited to one fourteen day prescription with no refills. [Emphasis added.]

This order was purportedly calculated to preserve the available supply of HCQ and chloroquine, which was running low after President Trump had expressed optimism about it possibly being a “game changer” in the fight against the pandemic.

On March 28, 2020, the FDA authorized “emergency use” of HCQ to treat adult and adolescent patients “hospitalized with COVID-19 for whom a clinical trial is not available, or participation is not feasible.”

The net effect of the interplay between Cuomo’s order and the FDA’s authorization has been to limit the use of HCQ to treating patients who are either hospitalized or participating in a “state approved” clinical trial. In other words, New York physicians are forbidden by law to use HCQ to treat COVID-19 on an outpatient basis as soon as possible after the onset of symptoms.


So those data Ext is waiting for may not get here for some time and when they do may not tell us much.

*She's a got a really weird Stepford sheen going on in the pic with this story.

jimmyk

“The net effect of the interplay between Cuomo’s order and the FDA’s authorization has been to limit the use of HCQ to treating patients who are either hospitalized or participating in a “state approved” clinical trial. In other words, New York physicians are forbidden by law to use HCQ to treat COVID-19 on an outpatient basis as soon as possible after the onset of symptoms.”

I (and no doubt many others) predicted this from day one. Maybe Trump should have dismissed HCQ as quackery and Cuomo would have charged forward to make him look bad.

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Wilson/Plame