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April 06, 2020

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jimmyk

Though I should add, Cuomo later modified his EO to relax it a bit, in part so people with other indicated conditions could get prescriptions. But I think also there was something about use for COVID too. I’ll try to find it.

The Infamous Ignatz

--Gauging the economic cost of different policies would be relatively easy.--

I agree with that but that isn't the cost/benefit of things I was addressing. If you say all the numbers the epidemiologists come up with are useless then how do you judge the cost or benefit in human health and life on the other end of the economic actions?
We know we're doing great economic damage. The epidemiologists say 'here is the approximate benefit in lives saved by doing so'.
If you say their numbers are bunk but have no method of supplying ones that are not equally baseless or even less so then you don't have a spreadsheet or a ledger because you only have one side filled out. You have seat of the pants decisions, which is the same criticism made of the politicians now; they're just wearing different pants.

D

TomR:
I watched the press conference and at no time did President Trump say Crozier shouldn’t be punished.
He actually stated that he made a mistake.
He also said he has a good record and that he would look into it.

lyle

*She's a got a really weird Stepford sheen going on in the pic with this story.

Sorry, but that is worse than “really weird.” She’s got a creepy embalmed look going.

::shudder::

MissMarple2

I agree with D. To me it looked like the press (once again) was trying to bait President Trump into a controversy. He only said he would look into it.

And now I need to go get my Kroger order, which is lacking the chicken I wanted. Bah.

Neo

Van Jones over in CNN has a real story ...

The short version of it is, don't be complacent. Black people can catch COVID-19 just like anyone else.

Who knew ?

jimmyk

If you say their numbers are bunk but have no method of supplying ones that are not equally baseless or even less so then you don't have a spreadsheet or a ledger because you only have one side filled out.

Did you just skip the first paragraph of what I wrote? Jeez, forget it. I give up.

D

“No one should ever be punished for doing the ethical right thing”
That is totally according to your definition of what is right and ethical TomR.
The captain had to know there would be consequences , but he thought like you he could get away with it because of the virus.
He thought wrong and he will have consequences.
Remember yesterday was a peaceful day and I know why.

jimmyk

Or rather, the entire paragraph other than the last sentence that you quoted as if the rest of the paragraph didn't exactly address your point?

Jane

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone. Insty did it for me:

Thank god for the internet. “I was 12 the first time I logged onto whatever was called the internet then. There were no websites to speak of, not really. No ecommerce, no banner ads, no data tracking, no spyware. iPhones hadn’t been invented yet; we called apps ‘programs’; and I had an EGA monitor on my PC (a whole 16 colors of range). But the first time I telnetted into a chatroom about raves, made new friends in Australia, or downloaded files to load into a music tracker, I felt the same elation that I feel now. This force, propelled by people, connected by copper and light, letting us make new connections. Connections we need now more than ever.”

D

Jimmyk:
Don’t give up.
I am counting on your analysis.

Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma

There is a useful tool at arcgis to track CV.

I can't get it to link (like usual). :(

It is a map that can be zeroed in on to pretty fine levels of granularity.

Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma

It is titled gisanddata.

Momto2

Shared on my church's page:

Tom R

Remember yesterday was a peaceful day and I know why.

Iggy, CH and I are having a respectful discussion. Others are responsible for creating drama. Blame it on them.

but he thought like you it was the ethical thing to do because of the virus.

FIFY

D

TomR—equals drama in my opinion.

Old Lurker

I cannot grasp how a military can work unless the only exception to following orders is that the order must be lawful. (And for centuries even that exception did not apply.)

"Ethical" is personal and variable and situational and the person ordered to do something cannot possibly know what the commander needs, knows, or requires, or why.

"Laws" are where a society records the consensus of that society of the ethics that apply. So that carveout seems to work since circa WWII.

A poster with military experience argues otherwise?

Momto2

Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr

The same media that has absolutely no problem with Hunter Biden taking in $1.5 billion directly from the Chinese govt has a problem that @realDonaldTrump may own $99 of a stock (through a mutual fund) that happens to make a drug he’s hopeful could work against the pandemic.

Melinda

Ig-

To repeat, Fauci "shot" the thumbs up AFTER Karl saluted him.

Tom R

OL @ 2:10

The concept of taking care of your troops health and welfare is a universal core tent of leadership. Maybe you can't grasp the concept of it because you have never been in the military and in command of troops?

D

Some could opine that the captain thought he was smarter than his commanders. There must be consequences for actions.
In this case no good deed (in the captain’s mind ) goes unpunished.
5 or 6 people who saw the press conference stated exactly what President Trump said.
We can’t all be wrong.

Melinda

tenet. FIFY.

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80T01782R000300330001-8.pdf

hmmm.

Tom R

s/b "core tenet"

D

TomR:
Stop it
It was peaceful yesterday because you were not here .
I didn’t want to be that blunt ,but there you are.

Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA

Neo: "Trump owns between $29 and $435 worth of Sanofi stock, a maker of Hydroxychloroquine"

That drugs been out there a long time.
Is Sanofi "the" maker of HCQ or "one of many" makers?

Dave (in MA)
She’s got a creepy embalmed look going.
There's some kind of strange photo effect used on that pic.
Melinda

JimS-

One of about a dozen.

Dave (in MA)

Another shot from the same event: https://www.record-eagle.com/collections/governor-stay-home-order-extension-coming-predicted-disease-peak-weeks-away/article_a5c663ba-7825-11ea-b9be-1b7421f6626e.html

The Infamous Ignatz

--Did you just skip the first paragraph of what I wrote?--

No, I read it but I disagreed with it. You said it would be difficult to gauge the effects because of all the variable and everyone is doing the same thing. But you said it wouldn't be impossible.
And I'm saying it is impossible to do a cost benefit analysis for the future if you start out by saying the numbers you get from epidemiologists are useless. Those are the only numbers there are.
Either the numbers are useless in which case there is no cost benefit equation possible or they're not useless which ends the argument that began with the contention the numbers generated are useless.
It is not impossible to look backward and make educated guesses on what worked here or there although even those are a lot less educated than is desirable. But up until now, and even including now, the data are so confused and confusing that they don't give a lot of guidance going forward, which of course is what matters.
Epidemics from the past give us guardrails and mistakes to study but each one is unique and here in the US we're really only a month into it taking off which is very little time to figure out what works, what's happening and what the real numbers even are. The epi guys can give their projections but in the end it is usually after the thing is over that it becomes clearer what should have been done.
There aren't any good choices and EVERYBODY is largely guessing about what the right strategy is and everybody defends their guess with flimsy data, suppositions and assumptions. That doesn't make for very satisfying discussions and it does make for thinking the other guy is an obtuse dumbbell, but that's the state of the world. Sorry.

Tom R

5 or 6 people who saw the press conference stated exactly what President Trump said.
We can’t all be wrong.

I linked the article and quoted Trump directly. What you and 5 or 6 others are doing is expressing your opinion on what Trump meant in his statement. Hopefully we will find out in a few days whose interpretation is correct. Like I said earlier, this is extremely bad optics for Trump and the sooner the kerfuffle goes away the better.

Melinda

"Now let him speak. 'Tis charity to show.” "

Has a nice ring to it.

Gentlejim

I’ll repeat what others have said here: ethical and legal are not necessarily congruent. I can legally take the otherwise law-abiding shoplifting single mother of 4 hungry kids to jail, but would that be the ethical thing?

Here’s a little midday WJOM:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X5jlTlUTWfQ
Fastball
The Way

D

No bad optics for President Trump.
You are wrong about that. Military discipline is separate from him and his administration.
You are conflating the two to support your weak argument.
His exact words that I heard said nothing about him getting reinstated or no punishment.
Your article is incorrect.
It is the same argument you used about Mueller when Trump would trash him in public.
Kabuki is what I think you called it. Stop insulting posters.

The Infamous Ignatz

--Ig-

To repeat, Fauci "shot" the thumbs up AFTER Karl saluted him.--

Yeah, I watched it. But I don't know their history or personalities. Was Marxist Karl saluting his good friend Big Tony for undermining Trump? Was he saluting somebody he's known for decades as a mere acknowledgment of see ya around? Was he saluting him as in 'man, Trump just let me have it'?
IDK. Nor do I know that shooting a finger gun is a thumbs up, either before or after a salute of indeterminate meaning between two people I don't know and whose relationship, if any, I don't know.

Everybody seems to know way more about all these people and what their personal agendas and secret codes are than I do so I'm just going to try and keep my mouth shut and learn from now on.

boris
  1. Disobeying a lawful order generally results in consequences;
  2. In some cases the severity of consequences may depend on what the result of disobedience turns out to be;

What I recall (USAF 1965) #1 is true.
#2 is an opinion and unlikely to be true in general.

Even, from those times, those engaging in civil disobedience were advised they would have to accept the consequences.

Threadkiller

Trump's comments that maybe the captain should not have been punished for what he did.

Posted by: Tom R | April 07, 2020 at 12:09 PM

Is not an accurate reading of your selected quote:

“Crozier should not have sent his letter, but he did not “want to destroy somebody for having a bad day,” Trump said.

Posted by: Tom R | April 07, 2020 at 11:14 AM

Old Lurker

The best way to look out for the health and welfare of one's troops would be to never take them into battle at all. Ask Lincoln how that worked for McLellan.

Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA

Gus: "No do NOT address me again."

And if he does? (He did). Are you gonna drive to his house and punch him out? This makes no sense.
For those who know Gus personally are there perhaps alcohol problems which cause him to lose control from time to time?
Is he perhaps a secret Prog activist and "Tom R" is his sock puppet for contrived arguments to ruin the blog?

I will now return to catch up via massive scroll on by.

JM Hanes

Miss Marple:

"What I don't know is how many others watch them, and how many of them watch them all the way through."

Some time ago a died-in-the-wool Democrat employee basically told me that Trump gave her the creeps. Just before I told her it was time to stay home, she said she'd watched at least a couple of the President's pressers. What amazed her was how just how awful the press corps was. Progress! I think you mentioned that potential dynamic when the pressers first started up, and my one little data point suggests that you were right.

Captain Hate

Like I said earlier, this is extremely bad optics for Trump and the sooner the kerfuffle goes away the better.

To be clear, this kerfuffle only happened because the leak of the letter, otherwise the reporters would have done what they do best which is sit on their dead asses watching twitter for the next OrangeManBad gotcha moment. I'm confident DJT will handle this well but there has to be a penalty for creating this terrible distraction.

Old Lurker

TomR "Maybe you can't grasp the concept of it because you have never been in the military and in command of troops?"

I have never been an asshole either, but I grasp the concept well. Do you?

The Infamous Ignatz

Hey Momto2,
Do you have a link for that Forrest Gump meme?
Wanted to send it to my pastor. :)

Melinda

I saw a smirk during "The Shooting" so that's why my take away was dey're buds.

mike in houston

Just lost my Scottish Terrier, Maggie. She wasn't feeling well yesterday and I went downstairs and found she must have died in her sleep. Here is here training video when she a pup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSItUqmwwow&list=UU-ivcjT4GQFOutkH1PgEMWw&index=503&pbjreload=10

MissMarple2

At least my Kroger order didn't have a bag DROPPED like the lady next to me. It was a bag in which they had put a jug of milk and one of orange juice, both of which split! What a mess!

And, not only was I not charged for the chicken, I got a discount on 2 other things which they had to substitute (and which were no big deal in the substitution) and I had a $5.00 credit on my last order, so my total was only $42.00! Pretty good, I would say!

sbwaters

So sad, Mike. Happy, though, that she was a healthy part of your life.

Captain Hate

Just before I told her it was time to stay home, she said she'd watched at least a couple of the President's pressers. What amazed her was how just how awful the press corps was. Progress!

You win a war one soldier at a time.

One upside of the pressers when so many people are stuck at home is they're able to see the unfiltered awfulness of the press. They have been a disaster to the press which is why they're trying to limit the damage by not carrying them because Drump's lying even though they could point it out in real time just what the "lies" are. But they can't because they're not.

I think Trump has broken them except they're too full of hubris to admit it.

KevlarKid

So, Capt. Crozier had an ADMIRAL right down the hall.

Did the Capt. get any feedback from the ADMIRAL before making his ill- fated decision?

Did SECNAV review the decision to boot Capt. Crozier from command with the ADMIRAL " down the hall"?

Was the ADMIRAL cc'd on the unsecured email?

------

I'm of the opinion there should be a court-martial trial.

Court-martial would ensure a thorough investigation by both prosecution and defense counsel that would lead to more than childish conduct by the captain ( unilateral decision to reduce carrier battle groups' readiness by 20% INSTANTLY) and a deeper identification of whethe the Captain's fears were warranted.

Court-martial would ensure the Captain could receive exoneration by acquittal instead of trial by public opinion with SECNAV saying oopsie.

Maybe "ensure" is too strong a word. But the precedent of this unilateral decision by a Navy captain has a lot of obvious consequences.

General James Longstreet to the courtesy telephone.

Further, the " he can't be an Admiral now" bleat is pointless. Would he be able to receive plum assignments with a nickname "Admiral Whistleblower?"

He had to have been aware of career consequences of not only his decision but of his TACTICS.

Porchlight

I am so sorry, mike. That is a tough blow. I'm glad she went in her sleep.

lyle

From what I watched, the Fouch was being quite amicable towards the jackass. Mean anything? Who knows.

Momto2

Hi Iggy,
See if this works. I found it originally on Facebook.

https://imgflip.com/i/3tjjex

lyle

So sorry, mike. I really hate to hear that. Dogs are gifts from God. Peace be with you.

Captain Hate

I'm an asshole quite a bit so I can comment with great insight.

lyle

https://www.redstate.com/brandon_morse/2020/04/07/tucker-carlson-points-out-things-about-the-lockdown-that-dont-make-sense/

If it’s safe to go to the grocery store, why isn’t it safe to go to an office building?

Momto2

So sorry to hear about Maggie, Mike. It's never an easy time to lose a pet but now seems one of the worst.

KevlarKid

lyle +1 >:0

Old Lurker

Cap'n, I could have worded it that way too (for sure) but it messed up the symmetry of the point I wanted to make.

Manuel Transmission

For those of you playing with the stats, WATTSUP has a pretty good post that shows the flu/total deaths for several years and bugs in the process.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/07/coronavirus-correcting-recent-u-s-weekly-death-statistics-for-incomplete-reporting/

It reinforces my bitching about blaming flu for all the deaths swept under the rug. Pay attention to the early comments about some of the European observations.

Jane

Oh Mike, I'm so so sorry!

Melinda

Another take:

https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/07/watch-abc-jon-karl-salutes-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-video

jimmyk

Either the numbers are useless in which case there is no cost benefit equation possible or they're not useless which ends the argument that began with the contention the numbers generated are useless.

I didn't say the *data* are useless, I said the "no mitigation scenario" fantasy numbers are useless. Just like climate *data* are useful, but the models claiming to know the temperature 100 years from now are useless. The *data* can be used to analyze what's going on now, and the efficacy of different approaches to mitigation. It can't plausibly analyze no mitigation because there are no examples.

Now some might say that *if* we can look at the impact of different degrees of mitigation we can extrapolate to no mitigation. As a statistics guy I find that dicey because it is so "out of sample." But note that even if it were true, it requires first doing what I'm suggesting might be doable, then extrapolating. Not starting with the unobservable scenario and putting numbers in a simulation model to get something that cannot be verified or rejected.

Extraneus

The best way to look out for the health and welfare of one's troops would be to never take them into battle at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FPELc1wEvk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUG9VzHoEoc

Jane

Here comes Trump!

clarice

lyle, looked innocent to me--just an acknowledgement of the salute.

Jane

BTW, I fixed my washer. Stupid person mistake.

Captain Hate

Deepest condolences, Mike. One of the things I still like about GWB was the obvious affection he had for Barney and Mrs Beasley. There's a Scotty around the block who was named for Teddy who is a whirling dervish who loves his namesake. Plus there's one named Angus we see at the park who Teddy ignores even though he's very friendly (fortunately that bothers me more than it does Angus's owner). How old was Maggie?

Jack Lillywhite

I’ve seen some bonehead comments of a personal nature on JOM for the number of years (14?) I have been here. But calling out OL because TomR assumed he didn’t have prior military service is both an insult to those who have served as well to people who haven’t served as if opinion is more valuable because you did.

Good Lord, man get over yourself because the rest of us have.

Threadkiller

Sorry to hear that, Mike.

Jane

Rocco,

What book was that from? I want to order it.

Captain Hate

I always appreciate symmetry, OL.

jimmyk

Sorry for your loss, Mike.

mike in houston

Maggie was nine. And, she was a non typical Scottie. She loved every dog and person she met. Well except for the bratty little Chihuahuas across the street.

JM Hanes

"...no one should ever be punished for doing the ethical right thing."

Sorry, Pollyanna, but that would pull the plug on a whole library of English literature, not to mention eliminating the premise of civil disobedience. People face such choices all the time. That's one reason I'm against special shield laws for reporters. The ethics vs consequences choice is a necessary test, IMO. Ditto for an officer who disobeys an order. He must decided if it is important enough to take whatever the consequences may be. Leniency must require more than just saying, "I thought I was doing the right thing."

If the care of his men were a higher calling than obeying orders, no officer would ever send his troops into battle.

Melinda

Sorry for your loss, Mike.

Dave (in MA)

Sorry, Mike.

lyle

https://ktrh.iheart.com/featured/michael-berry/content/2020-04-06-dem-governor-who-banned-hydroxychloroquine-gets-caught-hoarding-it/

Nevada. How’s your pike inventory, Clarice?

KevlarKid

Jim Sunny-- i mean this in a good way. and even though i am replying to you here i'm willing to extend the conversation after you reply here, should you so choose, on email. you have my addie.

your conjecture about GUS was out of bounds.

as one who has gone after somebody who's addressed me in a drunken state, i know when it's an alcohol -rooted pattern. it was my business and no one else's.

the third time it happened you butted in referring to my rebut of the drunken post as me having an " outburst." wrong. dead wrong.

it wasn't your business then. and it isn't your business now to allege what somebody's motives or more's (mor-rayz) may or may not be for rousing St Thomas' feathers during his strutting cock impression.

sincerely.

Pinandpuller

And now a message from a Ugandan Police Chief:

It’s real, and it’s spectacular https://twitter.com/holbornlolz/status/1247538479166152707?s=21

lyle

I trust your judgment, Clarice.

Captain Hate

Scottie's tend to be chippy, which Teddy and Angus are not. There was another Angus across the street that attacked Rufus, an Old English Sheepdog; since Rufus is the only dog I've owned who bit me, I cut Angus slack. My subsequent Airedale, Maggie, absolutely hated Angus.

jimmyk

Michael Burry, the guy featured in "The Big Short," seems to share the prevailing JOM view. Not that he's more than someone else with an opinion, but I'd forgotten he was an MD before getting rich shorting mortgage-backed securities in 2007-8.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm

Since there's a partial paywall:

Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-investor who famously bet against mortgage securities before the 2008 financial crisis, has taken to Twitter with a controversial message: lockdowns intended to contain the coronavirus pandemic are worse than the disease itself.

Government-directed shutdowns in the U.S., which led to millions of job losses and may trigger one of the country’s deepest-ever economic contractions, aren’t necessary to contain the epidemic and have disproportionately hurt low-income families and minorities, Burry argued in a series of tweets over the past two weeks. He also said some controversial treatments for Covid-19, such as the malaria drug hydroxycloroquine, should be made more widely available.

Sounds about right.

Old Lurker

Sad at any age, Mike. But 9 is too soon.

lyle

https://www.city-journal.org/covid-19-federal-recovery-authority-needed

This is very good.

MissMarple2

mike in houston,

I am so sorry! I am going to have to make a decision about my English shepherd, Maggie, soon. I got her for protection and company when my ex-husband went to work overseas over 9 (maybe 10) years ago. I dread it, and in a way I wish it would be taken out of my hands.

Tom R

I have never been an asshole either

If you say so.

KevlarKid

mike--- i'm sitting here holding my beloved Anya rubbing the chill from her ears like i do everyday. so sorry to hear your news, Brother.

peace!

mike in houston

Thank you all for your kind remarks.

Momto2

CH - you had a Maggie, too? Lots of Maggie dogs here. I think MM has one as well. Cute name - my friend has a sweet English Springer Spaniel named Maggie.

Momto2

Oops, posted before reading, MM. I was right about you having a Maggie. I hope you don't have to do anything either. Sometimes, though, it's the kindest thing when they are suffering.

MissMarple2

According to the White House, here is the link to the press briefing for today, which is scheduled for 5:00 PM.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVeEmARzvfo

MissMarple2

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/acting-navy-secretary-modly-quits-after-he-ripped-captain-pleading-for-help-over-coronavirus-outbreak-report-says.html

Threadkiller

https://www.va.gov/oig/pubs/VAOIG-20-02221-120.pdf

The OIG looked into Covid readiness at select VA hospitals and community centers. They focused on a wide array of items an published the above report.

What I found interesting is the rebuttal from the VA:

Response to findings: In these unprecedented times requiring tightly coordinated development and deployment of new and unique processes across the nation, we acknowledge receipt of this report. We are, however, deeply concerned that these investigators (many of them clinicians) did not abide by CDC guidelines regarding social distancing, and their movement from one VA hospital and Community Clinic to the next could very possibly make them COVID-19 vectors and put our patients and staff at risk. Finally, we object to OIG’s assertions that a 14-day supply of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine would have any merit. This is both inaccurate and irresponsible. There are active investigations into these drugs and many others, as discussed by Dr. Anthony Fauci. Yet no conclusions have been made on their effectiveness. To insist that a 14 days’ supply of these drugs is appropriate or not appropriate displays this dangerous lack of expertise on COVID-19 and Pandemic response.

First they slam OIG employees for potentially spreading the virus and second they lose their minds over the mention of hydroxychloroquine. The OIG points out that hydroxychloroquine was brought up by VA employees, not the OIG.

What a disappointing response from the VA.


henry

Not to add fuel to the fire, but.

@WSJ

Breaking: Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly resigned Tuesday, U.S. military officials said, after denouncing Capt. Brett Crozier in angry remarks to the USS Theodore Roosevelt's crew

Tom R

But calling out OL because TomR assumed he didn’t have prior military service is both an insult to those who have served as well to people who haven’t served as if opinion is more valuable because you did.

I don't mind if you take the side of those with zero first hand experience of what military leadership entails. OL and everyone else are free to express their opinion. It's easy for armchair admirals to pass judgment and criticize when they have never had to worry about that level of responsibility.

KevlarKid

Good find, jimmyk! 🎯

Jack Lillywhite

Mike,

Cheers!

As an owner of 3 Beagles, I know how close you must have been to Maggie. She was a very handsome terrier and brought you memories of her love and joy to live on.

May she Rest In Peace.

Pinandpuller

Ugandan Health Minister’s recommendation:

Grab your mf kids off da mf street make dem drink mf bleach.

Threadkiller

It's easy for armchair admirals to pass judgment and criticize when they have never had to worry about that level of responsibility.

Does that mean you achieved the rank of Admiral? You make it sound like you reached that “level of responsibility.”

Jack Lillywhite

Too many Maggie’s?

Sorry, but there are never too many Maggies🤠

Captain Hate

Momto2,

She was retired by a breeder and was named Mandy, which Mrs H thought was too disrespectful to her grandmother, Amanda, so we renamed her. Maggie was raised in the sticks of Ashtabula county, on a dirt road off a dirt road, and even though it wasn't a puppy mill she shared an outdoor kennel with another Dale. Unfortunately it showed the downside of an Airedale who grows up without much human contact: they don't know how to play or have fun. I tried to encourage her every time she showed a spark of playfulness but it just didn't catch. She loved both of us, though, particularly my wife. She hated most other dogs though, except weirdly this pack of dachshund/chihuahuas owned by a strange former NSA analyst; they exploded with barking at most other dogs but they and Maggie oddly tolerated each other.

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