That Was A Good Day

Monday was a day for believers. The coronavirus tide may have turned in Italy and Spain. Even NY had two days below 600 new deaths. After a Saturday figure of 630 new deaths, Gov. Cuomo said Sunday's 594 figure may be a "blip". But with Monday at 599, we have a shot at an actual trend developing!

As always, his presentations were filled with an array of detailed statistics. Though New York’s daily death toll peaked at 630 on Saturday, it hovered around 600 on both Sunday and Monday, he said. That followed a long stretch in which hospitalizations in the state were growing at a rate of 20 to 30 percent a day, but are now increasing at a single-digit rate.

“While none of this is good news, the flattening — or possible flattening — is better than the increases we have seen,” Mr. Cuomo said.

On the other hand, British PM Boris Johnson is in intensive care, which is grim news.

NY State New Deaths graph.

That chart shows 539 deaths in NY state on Apr 6. Weird, because Cuomo said 599. The site uses Johns Hopkins data, so what gives?

Comments

[Extraneus]

Maybe the admiral checked the stats and knew that, due to their ages and fitness levels, only a small percentage of the positives on the ship were likely at risk of dying from the virus, and decided that even in the worst case he would only lose 50 sailors or so, which wasn't worth the loss of operational security in such times of tension with China.

But then Crozier said, "Fuck you, Admiral. I'm scared!"

As stated earlier, the Captain had no problem with the crew crowded cheek to cheek on the deck waving goodbye to him. He obviously hadn't instituted any sort of social distancing, so his claims of worry for his men ring hollow to me. He and they could have been evacuated if necessary, and surely there are places to quarantine sick people on an aircraft carrier.

I'm with James, but I think he probably deserves a court martial before being shot.

[MissMarple2]

White House link on Periscope:

LIVE: Press Briefing with Coronavirus Task Force https://t.co/kszgnReztL

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 7, 2020

[Melinda]

So true....

@drawandstrike

Literally playing stupid, that's where they are at right now.

twitter.com/juliaioffe/sta…

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe
Can someone please explain to me why Trump et al are so hung up on hydroxychloroquine? Because I really don't get it.

@cruadin
Replying to @drawandstrike
They ain't playin'

https://twitter.com/cruadin/status/1247642699559309312

[Jim Eagle]

Hate to disagree with Ex and others on Crozier. His actions don't even rise to an Article 15 USMJ charge.

We don't know the whole story yet. Especailly, the actions or inactions of the CG Commander down the pathway from him. More to come out but he is not CM material, at least not yet.

BTW, I was a juror in a CM of a fellow officer. Not something I would recommend to anyone. Not the same as a Civil trial and jury. Painful to a degree.

[jimmyk]

Uh-oh, after two good days in a row it looks we're getting a big jump in deaths today. Maybe Dr Murray was right not to rejigger his model, or maybe this is just a blip. I'm seeing 1941 deaths today versus 1182 and 1184 the previous two days. Previous high was 3 days ago at 1352. NY State jumped too, but not so much to account for this.

[Ralph L]

I'll let it slide

Thanks, Karen.

[Jim Eagle]

JimmyK,

Ages? Pre-existing conditions?

I am still convinced that fresh air (not NYC air) and sun are the best cures.

But then, I am on the beach and never move from my perch. sbw knows:)

[henry]

Funds withheld from WHO

[Jane]

Jane, Think Big & Kick Ass In Business & Life

Boy do I love you Rocco!

[Extraneus]

A rare excellent USA Today column by Glenn (Harlan) Reynolds:

Time to put China on lockdown for its dishonesty amid coronavirus crisis

China’s response was inept, dishonest and utterly inconsiderate of the world. We need to teach the Chinese government a lesson.

[MissMarple2]

The Captain "didn't have to be Ernest Hemingway.?

LOL!

[KevlarKid]

Bring it, Ralph.

[jimmyk]

Scanning the data, the big jumps in deaths proportionately were in GA and PA. No way to know the details as to preexisting conditions, but since the increase is country-wide, probably nothing different. I wonder if that's why the market ended up down slightly today after starting much higher.

[JimNorCal]

kk: "I'll let it slide because people say stupid shit when they're embarassed."

I'm not embarrassed, kk, just being a nerdy guy unsuccessfully trying to defuse with humor. I found your email address and sent you a message. We can take it off line, yes?

[Extraneus]

His actions don't even rise to an Article 15 USMJ charge.

I'm not familiar with the code, but was the loss of readiness of an aircraft carrier group not classified information? How could it not be?

He sent his unclassified (which was misinterpreted the last time I brought this up because I didn't say it wasn't "marked" classified, as he well knows it should have been) letter over an unsafe email system, and copied enough people to know it would be leaked in almost Comeyesque fashion.

If that's not a crume under UCMJ, I think we need a blue ribbon commission to review the Code.

[MissMarple2]

I see that since Peter Navarro has been effective over the last couple of days, the press is now going after Navarro.

[KevlarKid]

hasnt arrived yet, jim.

[Ralph L]

From KK's link, which has many details:
Modly to TR crew:
“There is never a situation where you should consider the media a part of your chain of command. You can jump the chain of command if you want, and take the consequences, you can disobey the chain of command and take the consequences, but there is no, no situation where you go to the media. Because the media has an agenda. And the agenda that they have depends on which side of the political aisle they sit."

He got that right.

[D]

At the presser, President Trump specifically said Crozier was wrong and made a mistake by sending the letter.
Said he must have had a bad day.
Said he would not have asked the civilian leader to leave but he felt he was too much of distraction.
The person who left said that.
So what Crozier did was WRONG according to the commander in chief.
Since Trump never served he doesn’t have the status of our resident expert TomR but he knows when a major screw up has occurred.
Dress it up in ethics and worry , it was still the wrong call.

[Tom R]

Ext @ 6:15

It was public knowledge that the carrier had infected sailors on it and was already at Guam 4 days before Crozier sent the letter. The letter didn't have anything in it that wasn't already known.

https://news.usni.org/2020/03/26/coronavirus-outbreak-sidelines-aircraft-carrier-uss-theodore-roosevelt

[henry]

Mail ballots are cheats.

Beautiful.

[Ralph L]

Modly: “If [Crozier] didn’t think that information was going to get out into the public, in this information age that we live in, then he was A, too naive or too stupid to be the commanding officer of a ship like this. The alternative is that he did this on purpose. And that’s a serious violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, which you are all familiar with.”

To correct the statement I Dowded earlier in the afternoon.

[GUS]

Maybe Obama and Ben Rhodes can weigh in on Crozier.

[Jim Eagle]

EX,

Go to the USMJ and especially sections 136 and 138 and show me how you can prosecute him. I am not saying he didn't make a mistake but how does it fall under the definitions of those sections. And BTW, until we hear from the CG commander, the RADM in the adjoinging quarters, this is all a bunch of extrapolation and guessing.

[D]

Modly’s resignation does not validate the argument of TomR, but we will let him think that it does.
President Trump was also interested in how it got out to the media.

[JimNorCal]

"As stated earlier, the Captain had no problem with the crew crowded cheek to cheek on the deck waving goodbye to him. He obviously hadn't instituted any sort of social distancing, so his claims of worry for his men ring hollow to me."

I'm not seeing this as significant, in the sense that I would expect the crew to express loyalty to the Captain without necessarily making a decision on the merits. They are proud of themselves, they are proud of their crew mates, they're proud of the ship, they have high morale. Of course, they cheer the Captain. This is great, it's what you want.

But if you took crew members individually, sat them down, explained all the details and side effects they might very well end up saying "well, OK, maybe the Captain could have handled it differently." Grudgingly.

[Ralph L]

I can't believe the Guam naval base doesn't have huge warehouses for sailors to squat in if he was in a hurry to evacuate. Civilian hotels just spreads the virus further, and they're unsupervised.

[D]

My question about Crozier is did he do it on purpose out of frustration or anger or because he disagreed with the order?

[henry]

On the WI election questions, Milwaukee cut down to 5 polling places. Thus lines. Very simple. Barrett did it.

[JimNorCal]

kk, it might be an old email, the last time we talked was a year ago?
The email starts with "m", has 5 letters and 3 digits and is a gmail.

Feel free to ping me and I can reply.

[Narciso]

So they went from danang to guam, thats quite a trip

[Ralph L]

From KK link:
In a phone call, Modly asks RADM Baker (Crozier's boss on board) if he knew about Crozier’s memo in advance. Baker says no — and he adds that Crozier told him later that he didn’t ask for permission because he knew Baker wouldn’t give it.

[Extraneus]

I'm impressed that the Chinese government has decided to go on offense with op-eds claiming that US and European political systems weren't as capable to deal with the virus as China's more "people-oriented" and less racist system.

I think history will show that an abject apology would have been a much better move, and that by this decision they inadvertently disclosed that they're not as smart as they act. An apology could and would have been disingenuous but it still was their best possible option.

[GUS]

didn’t ask for permission because he knew Baker wouldn’t give it.

He'll make a good windows and doors saleman.
Or siding.

Thank you for your service sayonara.

[lyle]

https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2020/04/07/its-about-time-at-covid19-presser-donald-trump-hits-the-world-health-organization-with-a-shot-across-the-bow/

‘Bout time.

[Ralph L]

So they went from danang to guam, thats quite a trip
Subic in PI is no longer available.

Reading that timeline, I find it difficult to fault Modly--except his resignation--but the chum was in the water.

[GUS]

Ext. Where would Chairman ELEVEN (XI) and his fine peeps get the idea that AMERICA is RACIST.

How many people of color starve to death here.

[Jim Eagle]

You know your sea channels, Narc:)

I spent 6 months at Anderslon AFB in Guam. It may be outside of Pensecola, FL (Eglin AFB) the most military operation center in the world (per capita). There is nothing there thatAn isn't US military.

And exactly where I would go with an dispirited sehip and command. Nothing like equal solsice in times of command issues.

Everyone is a brother there regardless of service or rank.

[Threadkiller]

Maybe Captain Covid wanted everyone quarantined to cover the trail of whomever on the ship he was banging that rendered him virus positive.

[Extraneus]

Go to the USMJ and especially sections 136 and 138

Was the carrier group's readiness not classified information? There's no need to check the UCMJ rules if it was because we have US statutes about disclosing such information insecurely. It wasn't just a military crime.

Can anyone argue that what he wrote about in his letter wasn't or shouldn't have been classified information?

[JohnH]

Gus, “ sayonara”? Have you been drinking? 😉

[D]

Didn’t ask for permission because he knew Baker wouldn’t give it.
Insubordination and arrogance.
There is your answer folks.
Agree with Gus, have fun selling solar panels.

[lyle]

Ooops. I guess the mercurial Drumpf kinda walked backed cutting off funding for WHO.

[Ralph L]

My dad's best friend flew Navy SIGINT missions from Guam to VN in 65-67. Quicker in the air.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

What do economic models say about our response to the pandemic?

[Melinda]

This was perfect smack:

Dr. Kankokage
@kankokage
In Trumpland, president assassinates you.

Caleb Hull @CalebJHull
REPORTER: "Checking on oil again today—"

TRUMP: "Where is it today? Give me the price."

REPORTER: "I am not sure, to be honest."

TRUMP: "How can you ask a question, when you don’t know the price?"

REPORTER: "I will look it up—"

TRUMP: "Let me just go to somebody else."

😂😂

Show this thread

https://twitter.com/kankokage/status/1247660728607219722

[JM Hanes]

Extraneus:

"Run away! Run away!"

LOL! I see you got there before me.

[Melinda]

OMG. It was The Stalwart (Trader commentariat)? HAHAHAHAH!

@ComfortablySmug

@TheStalwart hey next time you and Mike send a journo to a press conference to ask about the price of oil, make sure they know the price of oil

@fed_speak
1m
Replying to @ComfortablySmug @TheStalwart
Oh no. What happened?

@ComfortablySmug
Replying to @fed_speak @TheStalwart
twitter.com/mattdizwhitloc…

Matt Whitlock @mattdizwhitlock
Replying to @ChrisPack716 @BobSalera @ComfortablySmug

https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1247663271932571649

[Pinandpuller]

Cops and US Military would NEVER take your guns, no way!

Meanwhile in Brighton,CO: Man arrested for playing T Ball in an empty park with his family for violating state GUIDELINES!!!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--I think history will show that an abject apology would have been a much better move, and that by this decision they inadvertently disclosed that they're not as smart as they act. An apology could and would have been disingenuous but it still was their best possible option.--

Pretty sure this comment aint woke but I see three competing issues, inscrutability, face and communism.
A slyly inscrutable response would have been the phony apology you speak of.
But the loss of face in starting this mess and being caught lying about it along with the natural belligerence of commies produced this overreaching stupidity at a time when soothing ruffled feathers is most important = not smart.
Along with all that is this combination of aggrieved pouting and angry grudge that the great middle kingdom [the "middle" after all meant they were the center of the earth surrounded by cavemen] humiliated by the loathsome, inferior West for a hundred years, not to mention demonic Japan, is nursing.

[Melinda]

The mathematics and the metaphysics
Fall to them as you find your stomach serves you.

Some would heed, yet, not.

[GUS]

Were Adam Schitt and Chubsdaddy Vindman listening in to TRUMPS conversations vis a vis W.H.O.?

[GUS]

Hey John, yeah, I was drunk as a sailor when I posted that. After voting at Summit Village Hall.
I was so drunk, that I nearly forgot to vote for Dan Kelly. But I sobered up when I thought of Karofsky getting on to the Supreme Ct..
She is FULL COMMIE to the MAX.

[Tom R]

7 a.m.: In a phone call, Modly asks Baker if he knew about Crozier’s memo in advance. Baker says no — and he adds that Crozier told him later that he didn’t ask for permission because he knew Baker wouldn’t give it.

FYI this passage in the timeline cites a WAPO article. I didn't see anything in that link to back up the claim. I read Modley's press conference on April 1 and 2 and didn't see anything to back up the bolded part either.

[Extraneus]

"Run away! Run away!"

Heh. I wondered if anyone clicked.

[Porchlight]

"I'm gonna ask my mom if that offer to 'slap me into next year' is still on the table."

My son got in big trouble in daycare once upon a time for telling another kid he was going to "smack him into next week."

Don't know where he could have heard that.

[Extraneus]

inscrutability, face and communism.

For sure, Ig. They can't hide their weaknesses and abide all three at the same time. Face was the one thing they could have easily given up temporarily, mitigating everything with an apology that most would have taken as sincere, but they couldn't do it and save face with their own people, who are more influenced than we are by such things as apologies. That's their weakness and should be exploited and I hope that's already in the works.

[henry]

500 year old manuscript.

UPDATE 4/7/2020: Kristin Uscinski, a medieval historian at the State University of New York, Purchase, wrote in to inform us of an even earlier appearance of the F-word in the English language, "Roger F$#%-by-the-Navel who appears in some court records from 1310-11. I always make sure my students are aware of good ole Roger."

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/04/500-year-old-manuscript-contains-earliest-known-use-of-the-f-word/

[Ralph L]

If it was in the WaPoo, it has to be troo.

[D]

Whatever happened to “ I am going to smack you upside the head?”

[Extraneus]

Don't know where he could have heard that.

Heh.

[Rocco]

Ahh, right back at ya Jane!

[Ralph L]

Could that also be the origin of "rogering" as a euphemism?

[D]

The truth about Crozier and his lack of conversation about his ultimately erroneous move will all come out eventually.
I am betting for once the WAPO story is true.
Of course if it is it puts the onus and blame directly on Crozier and I can’t wait to see what kind of spin comes out of his as Trump called it” Mistake”

[henry]

Ralph, could be. The rest is from a Scottish poetry slam in the 15th century. (Yes, rap was culturally appropriated from Scotland).

[MJW]

Uh-oh, after two good days in a row it looks we're getting a big jump in deaths today. Maybe Dr Murray was right not to rejigger his model, or maybe this is just a blip. I'm seeing 1941 deaths today versus 1182 and 1184 the previous two days.

On the website for the Murray model, the previous days are shown as significantly higher than 1184 and 1182. They're 1755 and 1745. The three-day total of 1184, 1182, and 1941 is 4407. If it's a matter of how the deaths are assigned to days, then the Murray model version may be lower than 1941, because the deaths have already been accounted for (though I have no idea if that will be the case). I believe the two counts may also out of phase, with the non-Murry model count taken at 4:00 PM Eastern Time, and the Murray model count taken later in the day.

[Melinda]

Yes, henry, but challenge shots from a "Forty" versus raw whisky before and after each call challenge by men in skirts makes me wonder about how daring the "Forty" really is....

Speaking of the Clans, anyone watching Outlander? I'm frickin' hooked. History AND live 18th Century Scots? Yeehaa!

[Melinda]

It's always about the money. Never fails:

Dedi Fredericks
@DediFredericks
Oops. DeepState Mayor Bloomberg(CFR) stockpiled ventilators/N95 Masks for a Pandemic; DeepState Mayor DeBlasio(CFR) auctioned off the ventilators & disposed on masks. Oh my... @cspanwj

Michael Hendrix @michael_hendrix
Fourteen years ago, Mayor Bloomberg released a pandemic plan for New York City and began stockpiling ventilators and N95 masks.

Mayor de Blasio later auctioned off the ventilators and disposed of the masks.

propublica.org/article/how-ne…

https://twitter.com/DediFredericks/status/1247681167291232256

[Manuel Transmission]

Mel, Outlander was discussed around here a bit some time ago. We have been slowly inching along with the overall sense that it is really a bodice ripper and sadly around episode 8 or thereabouts, it definitely took on that, ah, flavor.

[Melinda]

This makes it mostly official. So they're telling us to our faces the numbers will be padded:

Alex Salvi
@alexsalvinews
Dr. Birx confirms anyone who dies with coronavirus in the United States--regardless of any other health issue--is being recorded as a #COVIDー19 death.

https://twitter.com/alexsalvinews/status/1247667576714301440

[Threadkiller]

Sundance is promoting this video showing The Fauci giving the gang at Al’s a “yo” moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eglF0BFkkrQ

The slowed down version at the end of the YouTube gives me a different impression. I blame the Youtuber’s Once Upon a Time in The Press music.

Slowed down it looks like Karl is giving a Bill Murray type of bullshit salute to the back of Trump and the Admiral. The Fauci responds with a “die motherfucker” finger gun blast.

[Another Bob]

Boy did I like that Trump cuts off the reporter vid.

And the jerk thought it was a joke and didn’t have the good sense to look embarrassed,

[Melinda]

Oh, I totally agree, but aside from the gratuitous sex, the alternative history aspect is almost better than Turtledove.

Some are starting to sense the tightening of the Censorship thumbscrews:

@Alexis_Cossette

Apparently, @TwitterSupport / @PeriscopeCo has cancelled my livestreaming capabilty.

Any reason why?

Radio-Québec™
@Alexis_Cossette
Le Webjournal de ce soir (censuré sur Facebook et Twitter):
1- L'usage de la #chloroquine se répand partout dans le monde;
2- Les statistiques du COVID-19 sont tronquées;
3- Pandémie: le sénat français sait-il quelque chose?
#COVID19 #Covid_19 #covid19Qc
youtu.be/3dXx7VzBW-o

TRANSLATED FROM FRENCH BY

Tonight's Webjournal (censored on Facebook and Twitter): 1- The use of the #chloroquine is spreading all over the world; 2- COVID-19 statistics are truncated; 3- Pandemic: does the French senate know anything? #COVID19 #Covid_19 #covid19Qc

[jimmyk]

Padding aside, there's this from NYS to explain some of the jump in casualties today:

Note: The unusually high increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths between April 6 and 7 is due to a combination of two factors:

- A lag in reports from laboratories
- A large transfer of hospitalization data about patients who were hospitalized before April 6

This is the third consecutive Tuesday with a big jump in deaths, both in NY State and nationally. Both were followed by more moderate numbers for the next six days. So maybe it's not as bad as it seems. If the market reacts really negatively tomorrow, might be a time to buy.

[Jack Lillywhite]

When I was a kid living in Capehart housing in Newfoundland, my Dad, brought home 3 RAF pilots from the OC. They were in their kilts and 3 sheets to the wind. But not so much to take off on my bike and sisters through the area only to be stopped by the AP.

My Dad never lived that down😢

[Threadkiller]

Correction: The Fauci would give the gang a “Ayyy” moment, not a “Yo” moment. I confused my Lords of Flatbush.

[Another Bob]

“ If the market reacts really negatively tomorrow, might be a time to buy.”

Futures down 150 or so.

[Ralph L]

a bodice ripper
A boy raper, I heard.

[Another Bob]

If Crozier’s wasn’t an intentional political act, some will sure use it for that.

“ Trump is more concerned about word getting out about widespread coronavirus infections on a Navy ship than he is about the afflicted sailors themselves. Unpatriotic sociopath.”

https://twitter.com/evanmcmullin/status/1247647606370516993?s=21

[Melinda]

ABob-

Add Fair Value. -200. Try the CNBC free App.

Under Markets/Pre-Markets, Dow Futs (Futures, FTSAH) gives the Fair Value for the day, that must be added. Implied Open, below that, gives you what should show on the screen, if the DJIA was quoting, Live.

[Rocco]

Tk, great catch! Imagine Jonathan Karl inviting a reporter from the CCP into the White House. And it sure looks like Fauci approves.

[Another Bob]

Now down -260

[Pinandpuller]

What’s up with all these Democrats who wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose?

[Another Bob]

I guess as I “announced” I’d gotten out of the market 6-8 weeks ago, maybe I’ll “announce” that I’ve started getting back in slowly.

[Another Bob]

I hold no license, that was not investment advice.

;)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I didn't watch this first time around and if you're not in favor of stay-at-home orders you might find him a little over the top but this Ugandan Police chief is hilarious no matter where you come down on the issue.
Language warning big time.

[MJW]

This is the third consecutive Tuesday with a big jump in deaths, both in NY State and nationally. Both were followed by more moderate numbers for the next six days. So maybe it's not as bad as it seems.

For previous weeks, the day-to-day death ratios (current day divided by previous day) for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday are:
One week ago: 1.0137, 1.5793, 1.1822
Two weeks ago: 0.5794, 2.7945, 1.1029
Three weeks ago: 1.0000, 1.7273, 1.1579

For Monday and today this week they're:
0.9983, 1.6421

So there certainly does appear to be a jump on Tuesday.

[clarice]

I think people who don't like Fauci read more into that gesture than people who do or are neutral.

[Pinandpuller]

GUS

I know Sawyers and Doziers and Braziers but what’s a Crozier?

[Strawman Cometh]

Following a link here to Daily Mail. Scoured around for other "news of interest. Notice this: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8197277/Alanis-Morissette-beams-joy-breastfeeds-baby-son-Winter.html Not a fan, but took a look. She looks great! Aglow suckling her wee bairn (too much Brit TV). Gone is the anorexia and the dreds. But then I thought, 5.4.3.2.1 and we'll get the song about the life being sucked out of her.

[Another Bob]

LOLOL Ig...”

[MissMarple2]

Internet problem:

I cannot connect to Twitter on my computer, although I can do so on my phone. I get no sort of message - just a white screen.

[Another Bob]

MM, phone working off your WiFi or cell data?

[peter]

Mom22, @ 3:53, your dog's story brought tears to my eyes, and I'm not even a dog lover.

[MissMarple2]

Znother Non,

I guess cell data.

[DrJ]

Znother Non

Had much vino yet, MM? :)

[MissMarple2]

Dr J,

Oh my goodness! I obviously am not a touch typist!

Another Bob! I apologize! How embarrassing!

[Another Bob]

Oh stop.

Twitter only?or other sites too?

[MissMarple2]

Now, all of a sudden, I am able to get back on Twitter.

It isn't that big a deal except that is how I look for news articles and see what the President has to say.

[MissMarple2]

Another Bob,

It was just Twitter. No message or anything, just a blank white screen.

But now it's back.

I get in a panic with internet problems because I don't know how to fix anything and the internet is my lifeline. Besides connecting here and Twitter, I do my banking on line, e-mail, bill paying, etc.