The Ahmaud Arbery shooting I noted in April is now going national. CNN aired a video of the fatal confrontation, the case is going to a grand jury and Joe Biden is demanding justice. Now both sides (all sides?) get to grab their scripts and we can fight over whether Ahmaud Arbery is Michael Brown, Trayvon Martin, Eric Garner, or someone else entirely. Any chance he's Ahmaud Arbery and this case doesn't fit a template? Naah.
As is so often the case, the vdeo shows what people want it to show. This is CNN:
Elements of the disturbing video are consistent with a description of the shooting given to police by one of those involved in the incident.
In a separate document, [local prosecutor] Mr. Barnhill stated that video exists of Mr. Arbery “burglarizing a home immediately preceding the chase and confrontation.” In the letter to the police, he cites a separate video of the shooting filmed by a third pursuer.
Mr. Barnhill said this video, which has not been made public, shows Mr. Arbery attacking Travis McMichael after he and his father pulled up to him in their truck.
The video shows Mr. Arbery trying to grab the shotgun from Travis McMichael’s hands, Mr. Barnhill wrote. And that, he argued, amounts to self-defense under Georgia law. Travis McMichael, Mr. Barnhill concluded, “was allowed to use deadly force to protect himself.”
Where did that take the local prosecutor?
Mr. Barnhill also wrote that he did not believe there was evidence of a crime, noting that Gregory McMichael and his son had been legally carrying their weapons under Georgia law. And because Mr. Arbery was a “burglary suspect,” the pursuers, who had “solid firsthand probable cause,” were justified in chasing him under the state’s citizen’s arrest law.
It's all good!
I'm just a tired old Yankee who is losing patience with this bullshit. Arbery was not jogging down the street carrying a television. And if he was, you're going to shoot him because of it? Why? No one was being kidnapped, no one was being raped, no one was being assaulted - what about this suggested it was a deadly force situation?
Or if these vigilantes were gunned up out of fear that the jogger might be armed, well, if the situation is that dangerous just take a deep breath and let it go. I don't care how legal this shooting was, it was stupid and quite likely the law is stupid as well.
Now yes, Arbery should not have attacked, as the video suggests he did. Legally that may be exculpatory but I'm not even sure why that is a defense. What, the vigilante plan was to show up with a shotgun to arrest a guy who, they hoped, would be calm and act responsibly? Just how did they picture this unfolding if the jogger was terrified, hopped up on drugs, had anger management issues, had mental health issues, or whatever? The plan was what - if he's a sensible citizen they'll arrest him, otherwise they'll shoot him? Come on, man.
These vigilantes faced a situation where no one was at risk of physical harm and turned it into a situation that had a high potential for disaster. And that's what they got. There ought to be consequences for cranial-anal impaction.
Link at one big box:
https://www.homedepot.com/b/Plumbing-Plumbing-Parts-Repair-Toilet-Parts-Repair-Fill-Valves/N-5yc1vZckh9
Posted by: Melinda | May 07, 2020 at 09:40 AM
If you are looking for a leak, narciso, start at the meter and observe the tiny flow indicated. It is either a triangle or a star/snowflake shape. If it is spinning, water is leaking. You can then shut off the angle stops at the toilets, one at a time, and see if the indicator has slowed(more than one leak) or stopped(you found it).
Same for the icemaker and dishwasher. This will narrow it down. But beware, those shutoff valves have a tendency to start leaking if it is the first time they have been operated in a long while. Be sure to know how to shut the water off to the whole house before you fiddle with them.
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 09:40 AM
Which history teaches us results in "Thirty Years War" or "Hundred Years War"... Not even getting to Radical Islam.
"Limited war" results in unlimited war, it would seem.
Posted by: jimmyk | May 07, 2020 at 09:40 AM
Turkey baster works too if you don't have a big sponge. Or a wet-dry shop vac.
Ask me how I know.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 09:43 AM
sbwtweet:
So the sky was falling—and federal policy set—because of crummy, unvalidated code. Edsgar Dijkstra taught me how to validate code better than this in 1972 — [Link to the "Brutal Takedown of Neil Ferguson's Model"]
Posted by: sbwaters | May 07, 2020 at 09:43 AM
One of history's little truisms, Jimmy.
HB, BTW.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 09:44 AM
Thanks all, the meter isnt spinning but there has been some 900 gallons over the last few years
Posted by: Narciso | May 07, 2020 at 09:44 AM
Shop vac is great until you're reminded you also used it for dead mouse retrieval.
Ask me how I know that one for two months....
Posted by: Melinda | May 07, 2020 at 09:45 AM
SBW, run the program with zeros in all the fields and stand back.
:-)
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 09:46 AM
If you think it is the flapper valve slowly leaking into the bowl you can put some sort of dye in the tank. Food coloring or the like. Don’t use a quantity that will stain the toilet. After a while the bowl water will change colors indicating the tank isn’t perfectly sealed away. It is either a leaking flapper or the water level is too high allowing tank water to spill into the overflow tube.
Despite a lifetime of being around very loud equipment and noisy vehicles, my hearing is still pretty good. I can usually hear water running in a toilet.
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 09:46 AM
NYC will use powerful UV LIGHTS to kill the coronavirus on subways and buses
Couldn't they have done this a month or two ago?
Posted by: Ralph L | May 07, 2020 at 09:48 AM
Narc, I can spot a running toilet in any empty store when I see the water bill move from $8.50 per month to $48.
It is always the toilet.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 09:48 AM
A: Coronavirus survivors will be BANNED from joining the US military
B: Why will survivors be banned from the military?
A: One person said, “our military knows something.”
Posted by: Neo | May 07, 2020 at 09:48 AM
900 gallons over the last few years
How would you know?
Margin of Error wishes it was that precise. :-)
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 09:49 AM
Requires no words:
https://www.foxnews.com/us/la-city-council-votes-to-name-hotels-that-refuse-to-house-homeless-may-commandeer-them
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 09:50 AM
--one of those multiple-of-ten birthdays--
Happy 40th jimmyk!
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 09:52 AM
A: Coronavirus survivors will be BANNED from joining the US military
Assuming this is true, I wonder if they will be banned from donating blood. My wife was in Germany during a mad cow outbreak. She is not allowed to donate blood. This happened sometime in the 80s and it apparently affected a tremendous amount of people.
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 09:54 AM
Couldn't they have done this a month or two ago?
Not while the homeless where living in the cars.
I wonder why we haven’t heard much about the “relocation” program?
Posted by: Buckeye | May 07, 2020 at 09:54 AM
Bless their hearts.
Karli Q ⭐️⭐️⭐️ - Text TRUMP to 88022
@KarluskaP
CBS News denies staging long car line for coronavirus testing in on-air report-😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣😂🤣😂🤣
foxnews.com/media/cbs-news…
https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1258393336387428352
Posted by: Melinda | May 07, 2020 at 09:56 AM
“Sources say”
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/russia-transcripts-collusion-schiff-panic-mode-sources
Posted by: henry | May 07, 2020 at 09:56 AM
https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/how-to-donate/eligibility-requirements/eligibility-criteria-alphabetical/eligibility-reference-material.html
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 09:57 AM
Its not registering the leak thats the poser, i think the gauge is cobvolutex.
Posted by: Narciso | May 07, 2020 at 09:59 AM
Bing's homepage today features bluebonnets. Remembering Bad.
Posted by: Tonto | May 07, 2020 at 09:59 AM
I meant weeks not years,
Posted by: Narciso | May 07, 2020 at 10:00 AM
Neo @ 9:48
But we're also being told that most everyone will sooner or later get infected with the coronavirus, so how will that work?
Posted by: James D. | May 07, 2020 at 10:00 AM
The entire national shutdown is Cuomo’s fault. Genetics show almost all hotspots were travelers from NY.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html
Posted by: henry | May 07, 2020 at 10:02 AM
OL @ 9:500
Oh, there are plenty of words.
Posted by: James D. | May 07, 2020 at 10:03 AM
Maybe the washing machine is using more water during a cycle.
No leaks on the flow indicator means that either the meter reader is sticking it to you, there was a price hike that you aren’t factoring in, or your habits changed and you are using more water.
Or your neighbor has tapped into your line and is running a small drip irrigation system on his topsy turvy tomatoes.
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 10:04 AM
--This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on.--
That's the best idea I've seen on this so far.
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 10:05 AM
turn on the kitchen faucet to a slow steady drip and look at the triangle/snowflake on the meter. Make sure the indicator is actually working.
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 10:07 AM
Ig, but that's unpossible!
Insurers and professional software engineers work in the evil for-profit field! They are not NGO's or government agencies or foundations, and we all know that those are the only organizations we can trust to actually do anything good for everyone, right?
Posted by: James D. | May 07, 2020 at 10:11 AM
--The entire national shutdown is Cuomo’s fault. Genetics show almost all hotspots were travelers from NY.--
Leftist logic;
I was outraged when Trump shut down flights from China and I hate his border wall but he should have known to shut down travel from NY and build a wall around it. Infrastructure!
It's Trump's fault!
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 10:11 AM
Time to go burn another hole in my head.
Later!
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 10:12 AM
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/american-voters-50-31-favor-blocking-federal-aids-sanctuary-cities-and
American voters by a 50% to 31% margin favor blocking federal aids for sanctuary cities and states, according to a new Just the News Daily Poll with Scott Rasmussen.
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 10:13 AM
Happy Birthday, jimmyk.
Posted by: joan | May 07, 2020 at 10:14 AM
Thanks for pointing that out, Tonto. RIP bad.
Posted by: Captain Hate | May 07, 2020 at 10:16 AM
TK "Or your neighbor has tapped into your line and is running a small drip irrigation system on his topsy turvy tomatoes."
Sounds like you know some of my tenants.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 10:17 AM
narc-
If it's a mechanical meter (non-lead brass, usually), they have around a 9 year useful life before internal erosion messes with their accuracy and effectiveness. Ask your city to swap it out, as their distributor WILL have one on hand for just that reason. Unit failure, it's part of the contract. What's the name brand on the meter?
Posted by: Melinda | May 07, 2020 at 10:21 AM
I have seen some crazy stuff, OL. When tenets realize they have an electric outlet that is on their neighbor’s meter, it is amazing how much gets plugged into that poor little 15 or 20 amp socket.
I once helped a friend bulletproof the laundry room in his apartments. Extension cords always found their way across the rooftops and down the walls until they wired themselves to the house meter.
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 10:25 AM
Well that's certainly within the CDC's purview:
Mail-In voting is the right prescription for Covid-19:
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/cdc-recommends-mail-methods-voting-due-coronavirus-contradicting-trumps
Posted by: Melinda | May 07, 2020 at 10:25 AM
From the WUWT link re Ferguson's code;
--after having been upgraded for over a month by a team from Microsoft and others--
Since IMHE is funded by the ubiquitous geekloid Gates, I wonder if the same team helped Murray with his mess too.
The world would be a much better place full of lunatic John McAfees hiding out in the jungles of Belize, sending cryptic, paranoid messages out via pirate radio than it is full of do-goodin, puddin'-heads like Gates who can't go one whole day without finding some comfortable, contented soul who didn't realize what his life really needs is some uber-rich busy-body working out his guilt to come along, stand him up, dust him off and improve him for his own frickin good.
He's Carrie Nation with a syringe instead of an ax.
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 10:26 AM
Melinda,
I listened to Part One of that Chanel-Rudy special. VERY informative and if Rudy were on Fix or CNN for the same amount of time, this enitre impeachment hoax would have been DOA. I will listen to the next part later this morning, and will recommend it to a friend.
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 10:28 AM
Fox, not Fix!
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 10:29 AM
Happy Birthday, JimmyK!
The aught issue? Simple, just count backwards from an aught year each year and when you hit the lower aught year start counting up again.
Forever in your 40s. :) or 50s or whatever decade you choose to relive.
I just turned 38! :)
Posted by: Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma | May 07, 2020 at 10:32 AM
IG-
There's links at Hoft's joint that asserts that Birx and Fauci used Ferguson's model to convince DJT to shutter down.
Posted by: Melinda | May 07, 2020 at 10:32 AM
TK, go on the roof of a strip center and look for wires running from one HVAC unit over to the next door unit...
Ask me how I know that too!
Ask me How I know that a pizza guy whose bathroom backs up to his neighbors bathroom can slip in a little cold water to cold water jumper...
And I never did understand why the phone company puts all of their junction boxes on the alley walls of centers wide open to anybody with a pair of alligator clips.
And Coax splitters for the cable guys.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 10:34 AM
LOL, OL.
Ok, really going now.
Posted by: Threadkiller | May 07, 2020 at 10:36 AM
This looks nice, and, yes, I know it's "Forbes":
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2020/05/07/chinese-military-cyber-spies-just-caught-crossing-a-very-dangerous-new-line/amp/
Posted by: Melinda | May 07, 2020 at 10:36 AM
It says something profoundly evil about twitter that a gif of Old Glory can be flagged as sensitive, presumably because it sported the name of the evil Flynn. So attaching the flag to the name of a guy being hounded and railroaded is too much for the pygmy Dorsey.
Whoever that conservative was who put money into that garbage company should buy a controlling interest and fix it.
I hope Flynn is exonerated for a number of reasons but a large one would be to shut the loudmouth progs up, like Jeralyn Merritt, who constantly disparage Sydney Powell as third rate.
Just win, baby.
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 10:36 AM
Why Hospitals in NYC Have Abandoned Hydroxychloroquine
"We know now it probably doesn’t help much," said Dr. Thomas McGinn, Deputy Physician-In-Chief at Northwell Health. "We’re not recommending it as a baseline therapy anymore. It is only in a treatment protocol in a study that we’re recommending it."
https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/05/07/hospitals-in-nyc-abandon-hydroxychloroquine-treatment-touted-by-trump-
Posted by: Neo | May 07, 2020 at 10:39 AM
University of Wisconsin System President Ray Cross directed campuses Thursday to quickly identify signature programs worthy of preservation and brace for layoffs as the coronavirus pandemic deepens the system's financial losses.
Harvard University is preparing to cut more expenses as revenue losses deepen due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The university reported a $415 million revenue loss in fiscal year 2020, and it projects a $750 million shortfall from original budget plans in the next fiscal year, which begins July 1.
Posted by: Neo | May 07, 2020 at 10:41 AM
Happy Birthday, Jimmy!
Posted by: Tonto | May 07, 2020 at 10:50 AM
loudmouth progs up, like Jeralyn Merritt
I still remember when she was the go-to site for the Trayvon Martin case, and seemed relatively sane and dispassionate as libs go. Did Trump send her off the deep end too?
Posted by: jimmyk | May 07, 2020 at 10:51 AM
Ric Grenell, President Donald Trump's acting director of national intelligence, informed lawmakers this week in newly disclosed correspondence that the White House has dropped its demand to review aspects of the testimony, which had led to a yearlong standoff with Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff, who took control of the committee last year.
The move paves the way for as many as 53 transcripts from that investigation to be released publicly, more than two years after the probe concluded.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/06/russia-probe-transcripts-poised-for-release-after-end-of-intel-review-240334
Who knew ?
Posted by: Neo | May 07, 2020 at 10:56 AM
Wow, the Supreme Court *unanimously* threw out all the Bridgegate convictions of Fat RINO Bastard.
Springsteen must be weeping.
Posted by: Captain Hate | May 07, 2020 at 11:01 AM
--There's links at Hoft's joint that asserts that Birx and Fauci used Ferguson's model to convince DJT to shutter down.--
Well, Trump himself has used Imperial's numbers.
I may get myself in trouble with this but as I've said many time ad infinitum the unmitigated number is pretty simple. You don't need 15,000 lines of code. A cellphone calculator is much more than enough.
The R0 gives you the approximate attack rate [he used 80%] and the CFR gives you a guess at the IFR [he used .9%]
Multiply for number of dead.
His attack rate may have been somewhat off and his IFR may have been 2, 3 or maybe even 10 times too high, but that's because he had incomplete data and his assumptions were off, not bad software. And of course R0 can change over time and space as can IFR and CFR.
And it's natural for any fudging to trend high because if it turns out 100,000 died instead of 200,000 you can say, gee glad it wasn't as bad as it could have been. If it turns out 1,000,000 died instead of 200,000 you get sued and/or go to jail or otherwise get fricasseed.
If the assumptions had been 60% attack rate and .1% IFR then you end up with 200,000 dead not 2,000,000. The question is can any model produce useful numbers in such a circumstance before the facts are known. If the IFR turns out to be .1% or lower then in this case the answer will turn out to be no.
But if the answer is no then what do policy makers base their decisions on? Because despite the fudge factor the next bug might combine SARS 1 and SARS 2 and end up ten times deadlier than we thought rather than ten times less so.
If you read that Edwark Luttwalk link yesterday to the initial bubonic plague of Justinian's time [or Thucydides account of Athens' plague], we're fighting these bugs not too differently than we did 1500 or 2500 years ago.
You haven't come a long way at all baby.
I believe Ferguson's software problems came mainly from his mitigated numbers. If you look at his charts they have a hundred different assumptions and guesses and produce numbers all over the place.
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 11:02 AM
Who knew ?
The rest of us. Yesterday.
Posted by: Captain Hate | May 07, 2020 at 11:03 AM
--Did Trump send her off the deep end too?--
Don't know. But she's always had a less than charitable attitude toward most lawyers supporting someone she doesn't like.
And her commenters who she interacts with a lot are worse.
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 11:06 AM
HB, jimmyk!
Posted by: lyle | May 07, 2020 at 11:06 AM
I believe Ferguson's software problems came mainly from his mitigated numbers.
He apparently had no hardware problems with his married-to-another-man paramour...🤨
Posted by: lyle | May 07, 2020 at 11:09 AM
My impression was from a visit I made there a month or two ago when Powell had filed some motion or other and she and the commenters were ridiculing it, and Powell, in a less than professional manner.
Used to get the same professorial pricks in the Volokh comments.
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 11:09 AM
Thanks, lyle, iggy, joan, tonto, OL, and any others I might have missed.
Feeling great, but this is the first birthday in years I can't play tennis, despite it being a perfect day, high 65 and not a cloud to be seen.
Posted by: jimmyk | May 07, 2020 at 11:09 AM
LOL, lyle.
Gotta go.
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | May 07, 2020 at 11:11 AM
Happy birthday, jimmyk! Congrats on avoiding the party, but I hope there will be celebration of your choosing down the line, when appropriate venues reopen. :)
Posted by: Porchlight | May 07, 2020 at 11:12 AM
But if the answer is no then what do policy makers base their decisions on?
When the entire world saw how the ChiComms enforced a totalitarian lockdown of an entire province that sends a strong signal of how lethal the ChiComms believed the virus to be. They bio-engineered the virus so they would know.
Posted by: Tom R | May 07, 2020 at 11:13 AM
Shop vac is great until you're reminded you also used it for dead mouse retrieval.
Ask me how I know that one for two months....
Mr Porch will not let anything smelly, or potentially smelly, near his shop vac. I guess it makes sense.
Posted by: Porchlight | May 07, 2020 at 11:14 AM
Link goes to a thread discussing the newly appointed Facebook commie censorship board.
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 11:15 AM
But if the answer is no then what do policy makers base their decisions on?
What did we use to base our decisions on?
We certainly understood until 2020 that shutting down the worldwide economy was not a "solution" to anything.
Posted by: Porchlight | May 07, 2020 at 11:16 AM
Ig " then what do policy makers base their decisions on? "
Start by asking your advisors: "Doc, has any nation ever locked down its entire economy, thrown 20% of the workforce out of work, and ordered everybody to their rooms and then been successful in stopping a virus in its tracks?"
If the answer is "no", then please explain why this time will be different.
Then ask your money guys: "If we do as the Doc suggests, how much will that cost the country for each month? After paying that price, then how long will it take for us to return to 80% of our economy, how long to 90%, then how long to 100%? After answering that, please tell me how much we will have to borrow to pay for Doc's idea, and how long will it take to pay that debt off?"
Come back in 24 hours with your answers and then we can draft a press release.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 11:16 AM
I believe Ferguson's software problems came mainly from his mitigated numbers. If you look at his charts they have a hundred different assumptions and guesses and produce numbers all over the place.
My professional bias (from my own mentors) is for simpler, more transparent models over big black boxes in which (to mix metaphors) no one knows where the bodies are buried. The knock on simple models is that the world is complex, and now we have the computational tools and speed to handle complex models. The problem is that there is much more scope for little errors and inaccuracies, and our brains haven't gotten much better to be able to really understand what's going on in these big models. Not to mention the potential for outright fraud. Again, think climate science.
Posted by: jimmyk | May 07, 2020 at 11:19 AM
OL, add to your questions: "and how many people will die/have their lives ruined/be thrown into poverty if we choose the shutdown approach?"
As someone else put it a few weeks ago, in the beginning, we had 3% of the population and healthcare workers to worry about. Now we have 100% of the population to worry about.
Great job.
And it's not like it wasn't easily foreseeable (and foreseen). There's a reason we never took this approach before.
Posted by: Porchlight | May 07, 2020 at 11:20 AM
Thanks, porch. I got the surprise party treatment 10 years ago. I don't think anyone really likes being thrown a surprise party. Fun for the throwers but not for the victim.
Posted by: jimmyk | May 07, 2020 at 11:22 AM
Link goes to 1 1/2 minute video of Kevin McCarthy at a press conference. This guy sure has become a lot bolder since Paul Ryan left and President Trump is in the Oval Office.
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 11:23 AM
HB, Jimmyk, it's an honor to know you.
I know I have said this in the past, but you share a birthday with my son, as well as Tschaikovsky, Brahms and actor Gary Cooper. (We watched several Gary Cooper movies on Turner in the maternity ward while my wife was in labor.)
Great toilet repair stories as well! Ask me how I know? Ever overtorque the bolts on a two piece and crack the porcelain? Ask me
NYC will use powerful UV LIGHTS to kill the coronavirus on subways and buses--the homeless will have great tans! Mahvelous!
Posted by: peter | May 07, 2020 at 11:23 AM
Jimmy, I have said several times that when I started in commercial real estate with the ink on my MBA still wet, and with my ability to model anything in Fortran as long as my boss would find me a timeshare account and a terminal, I was flabbergasted that these old guys made buy sell decisions for huge projects doing numbers on the back of the proverbial envelope.
When I arrived at their age later in my own life, I was doing the same thing, I was just getting my envelopes from Amazon.
Those old guys were pretty smart afterall.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 11:24 AM
Quirky word usage, MI version
Quirky word usage. In NY you go to the beach. In NJ you go to the shore. When you get to the shore then you go to the beach.
In MI, you go Up North. (almost always to stay at a cottage, on a lake). When you get Up North, you are at The Lake.
The Lake is THE lake your family goes to--no matter which of the bozillion lakes, everybody knows that when you refer to The Lake you mean your family's lake.
Posted by: anonamom | May 07, 2020 at 11:25 AM
Tru dat, Porch, tru dat.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 11:26 AM
jimmyk, surprise parties suck. I prayed not to get one when I turned 50 and thankfully was spared.
Posted by: Porchlight | May 07, 2020 at 11:32 AM
But if the answer is no then what do policy makers base their decisions on?
Experience, gut instinct guided by an understanding of the basic mechanisms involved. Learn as you muddle along. The models are as likely to lead you astray as they are to help.
This isn't literal rocket science, where you need (and can get) absolute precision or else you get catastrophic failure. The models are really only useful to guide your intuition.
Posted by: jimmyk | May 07, 2020 at 11:32 AM
The Lake is THE lake your family goes to--no matter which of the bozillion lakes, everybody knows that when you refer to The Lake you mean your family's lake.
Same in MN.
Posted by: Porchlight | May 07, 2020 at 11:32 AM
anonamom,
In my family we went to our "cabin" in Wisconsin. (Wisconsin wasn't REALLY Wisconsin until we got north of Green Bay in the Nicolet National Forest.)
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 11:34 AM
We certainly understood until 2020 that shutting down the worldwide economy was not a "solution" to anything.
It was Trump's solution to prevent the healthcare infrastructure from getting overwhelmed which was stated up front as the primary goal.
Posted by: Tom R | May 07, 2020 at 11:34 AM
She had a brief moment if sanity, then brainslugs resumed.
Posted by: Narciso | May 07, 2020 at 11:35 AM
There was plenty of meat in the grocery store this morning, including beef.
Posted by: Captain Hate | May 07, 2020 at 11:36 AM
The Supreme Court has thrown out the convictions of two people involved in New Jersey’s “Bridgegate” scandal.
The court said in a unanimous decision Thursday that the government had overreached in prosecuting Bridget Kelly and Bill Baroni for their roles in creating a massive traffic jam to punish a New Jersey mayor who refused to endorse the reelection of then-Republican Gov. Chris Christie.
Posted by: Neo | May 07, 2020 at 11:38 AM
Thanks, peter, happy birthday to your son.
Posted by: jimmyk | May 07, 2020 at 11:39 AM
Wray did help stay puft get through this mockasham no good deed goes unpunished.
Posted by: Narciso | May 07, 2020 at 11:39 AM
There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US. One guy in DC knows what's best for all of them?
Aren't we lucky.
Posted by: Old Lurker | May 07, 2020 at 11:41 AM
Thread showing that everything that has transpired was discussed in an episode of "Dead Zone" in 2003:
https://twitter.com/Mile_Voli_Disk0/status/1258420299781079042
(You may commence playing the theme to "Twilight Zone.")
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 11:43 AM
The last thing I care about is golf, but there was no reason to keep the MA courses shut. Acc. to buzz on Twitter, several course owners called Charlie Baker's office and said they were going to pull a Shelley Luther, and he caved under the pressure.
Posted by: Dave (in MA) | May 07, 2020 at 11:48 AM
HAPPY 60th BIRTHDAY jimmy k!
You're my excuse to drink at lunch today! ;-)
Posted by: anonamom | May 07, 2020 at 11:49 AM
Brad Parscale - Download our Trump 2020 App today!
@parscale
·
2h
For nearly three years we have been building a juggernaut campaign (Death Star). It is firing on all cylinders. Data, Digital, TV, Political, Surrogates, Coalitions, etc.
In a few days we start pressing FIRE for the first time.
I didn’t give our campaign the name, Death Star, the media did. However, I am happy to use the analogy. The fact is, we haven’t used it yet. Laugh all you want, we will take the win!
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 11:49 AM
Happy Nth, jimmyk!
Posted by: Dave (in MA) | May 07, 2020 at 11:50 AM
JIb,
Did you see my question about which Ipad you bought? If so, I missed your answer.
Well I drove to Walmart!!! I can honestly say driving was a lot easier than shopping!
Posted by: Jane | May 07, 2020 at 11:51 AM
OL @ 11:41
What purpose does it serve for you to continuously engage in 20/20 hindsight to undermine Trump's decision making? Are you trying to influence more JOM posters to start criticizing Trump for how he handled the crisis?
Posted by: Tom R | May 07, 2020 at 11:51 AM
Happy b'day jimmy!!
My son was 3 when we were building this house and always called it "the property" and had "property boots" because it could get muddy when we were clearing the lot.
Posted by: rse | May 07, 2020 at 11:51 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-valet-tests-positive-for-coronavirus
Posted by: MissMarple2 | May 07, 2020 at 11:54 AM
There was plenty of meat in the grocery store this morning, including beef.
NO Chicken at 6 am at Kroger this morning. And the prepackaged deli meats (don't know about the deli department I didn't look there) were slim pickins, too.
I give my dogs Buddig Beef for treats (two are allergic to chicken and I avoid the dog treats from Chyna) and it's been out of stock for 3 weeks. I bought a case and froze some last time I found it, but dayum I'm about out.
Posted by: Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma | May 07, 2020 at 11:55 AM
TM: "Energize the (Dem) base!"
Yeah, Dems trying to ratchet up their bases's energy level.
TM: "I'm just a tired old Yankee who is losing patience with this bullshit."
But, honestly, is this truly a national issue? Is this a local issue of importance to that community or is this going on all over the nation? (If it's local, then shame on Dems and the enemedia for elevating it to Something We Must All Discuss because America evil.
Now take the TX hairdresser. I'd argue that's an event with national import. Because there's a ton of related events. Police helicopters over beaches in CA, citizens with guns on the Capitol steps in MI, the assault vehicle used to shut down a bar in TX, Dem officials wielding tyrannical powers in jurisdictions across the land.
See the difference?
Posted by: President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA | May 07, 2020 at 11:56 AM
“engage in 20/20 hindsight”
Because past behavior informs future behavior.
While I support Trump, he is not a God who is beyond question. And I don’t understand why anyone would think he is.
Posted by: Another Bob | May 07, 2020 at 12:00 PM