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May 06, 2020

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Melinda

Link at one big box:

https://www.homedepot.com/b/Plumbing-Plumbing-Parts-Repair-Toilet-Parts-Repair-Fill-Valves/N-5yc1vZckh9

Threadkiller

If you are looking for a leak, narciso, start at the meter and observe the tiny flow indicated. It is either a triangle or a star/snowflake shape. If it is spinning, water is leaking. You can then shut off the angle stops at the toilets, one at a time, and see if the indicator has slowed(more than one leak) or stopped(you found it).

Same for the icemaker and dishwasher. This will narrow it down. But beware, those shutoff valves have a tendency to start leaking if it is the first time they have been operated in a long while. Be sure to know how to shut the water off to the whole house before you fiddle with them.

jimmyk

Which history teaches us results in "Thirty Years War" or "Hundred Years War"... Not even getting to Radical Islam.

"Limited war" results in unlimited war, it would seem.

Old Lurker

Turkey baster works too if you don't have a big sponge. Or a wet-dry shop vac.

Ask me how I know.

sbwaters

sbwtweet:
So the sky was falling—and federal policy set—because of crummy, unvalidated code. Edsgar Dijkstra taught me how to validate code better than this in 1972 — [Link to the "Brutal Takedown of Neil Ferguson's Model"]

Old Lurker

One of history's little truisms, Jimmy.

HB, BTW.

Narciso

Thanks all, the meter isnt spinning but there has been some 900 gallons over the last few years

Melinda

Shop vac is great until you're reminded you also used it for dead mouse retrieval.

Ask me how I know that one for two months....

Old Lurker

SBW, run the program with zeros in all the fields and stand back.

:-)

Threadkiller

If you think it is the flapper valve slowly leaking into the bowl you can put some sort of dye in the tank. Food coloring or the like. Don’t use a quantity that will stain the toilet. After a while the bowl water will change colors indicating the tank isn’t perfectly sealed away. It is either a leaking flapper or the water level is too high allowing tank water to spill into the overflow tube.


Despite a lifetime of being around very loud equipment and noisy vehicles, my hearing is still pretty good. I can usually hear water running in a toilet.

Ralph L

NYC will use powerful UV LIGHTS to kill the coronavirus on subways and buses

Couldn't they have done this a month or two ago?

Old Lurker

Narc, I can spot a running toilet in any empty store when I see the water bill move from $8.50 per month to $48.

It is always the toilet.

Neo

A: Coronavirus survivors will be BANNED from joining the US military
B: Why will survivors be banned from the military?
A: One person said, “our military knows something.”

Threadkiller

900 gallons over the last few years

How would you know?

Margin of Error wishes it was that precise. :-)

Old Lurker

Requires no words:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/la-city-council-votes-to-name-hotels-that-refuse-to-house-homeless-may-commandeer-them

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--one of those multiple-of-ten birthdays--

Happy 40th jimmyk!

Threadkiller

A: Coronavirus survivors will be BANNED from joining the US military

Assuming this is true, I wonder if they will be banned from donating blood. My wife was in Germany during a mad cow outbreak. She is not allowed to donate blood. This happened sometime in the 80s and it apparently affected a tremendous amount of people.

Buckeye

Couldn't they have done this a month or two ago?

Not while the homeless where living in the cars.

I wonder why we haven’t heard much about the “relocation” program?

Melinda

Bless their hearts.

Karli Q ⭐️⭐️⭐️ - Text TRUMP to 88022
@KarluskaP
CBS News denies staging long car line for coronavirus testing in on-air report-😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣😂🤣😂🤣

foxnews.com/media/cbs-news…

https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1258393336387428352

henry

“Sources say”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/russia-transcripts-collusion-schiff-panic-mode-sources

Threadkiller

https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/how-to-donate/eligibility-requirements/eligibility-criteria-alphabetical/eligibility-reference-material.html

Narciso

Its not registering the leak thats the poser, i think the gauge is cobvolutex.

Tonto

Bing's homepage today features bluebonnets. Remembering Bad.

Narciso

I meant weeks not years,

James D.

Neo @ 9:48

But we're also being told that most everyone will sooner or later get infected with the coronavirus, so how will that work?

henry

The entire national shutdown is Cuomo’s fault. Genetics show almost all hotspots were travelers from NY.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html

James D.

OL @ 9:500

Oh, there are plenty of words.

Threadkiller

Maybe the washing machine is using more water during a cycle.

No leaks on the flow indicator means that either the meter reader is sticking it to you, there was a price hike that you aren’t factoring in, or your habits changed and you are using more water.

Or your neighbor has tapped into your line and is running a small drip irrigation system on his topsy turvy tomatoes.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on.--

That's the best idea I've seen on this so far.

Threadkiller

turn on the kitchen faucet to a slow steady drip and look at the triangle/snowflake on the meter. Make sure the indicator is actually working.

James D.

Ig, but that's unpossible!

Insurers and professional software engineers work in the evil for-profit field! They are not NGO's or government agencies or foundations, and we all know that those are the only organizations we can trust to actually do anything good for everyone, right?

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--The entire national shutdown is Cuomo’s fault. Genetics show almost all hotspots were travelers from NY.--

Leftist logic;
I was outraged when Trump shut down flights from China and I hate his border wall but he should have known to shut down travel from NY and build a wall around it. Infrastructure!

It's Trump's fault!

Threadkiller

Time to go burn another hole in my head.

Later!

MissMarple2

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/american-voters-50-31-favor-blocking-federal-aids-sanctuary-cities-and

American voters by a 50% to 31% margin favor blocking federal aids for sanctuary cities and states, according to a new Just the News Daily Poll with Scott Rasmussen.

joan

Happy Birthday, jimmyk.

Captain Hate

Thanks for pointing that out, Tonto. RIP bad.

Old Lurker

TK "Or your neighbor has tapped into your line and is running a small drip irrigation system on his topsy turvy tomatoes."

Sounds like you know some of my tenants.

Melinda

narc-

If it's a mechanical meter (non-lead brass, usually), they have around a 9 year useful life before internal erosion messes with their accuracy and effectiveness. Ask your city to swap it out, as their distributor WILL have one on hand for just that reason. Unit failure, it's part of the contract. What's the name brand on the meter?

Threadkiller

I have seen some crazy stuff, OL. When tenets realize they have an electric outlet that is on their neighbor’s meter, it is amazing how much gets plugged into that poor little 15 or 20 amp socket.

I once helped a friend bulletproof the laundry room in his apartments. Extension cords always found their way across the rooftops and down the walls until they wired themselves to the house meter.

Melinda

Well that's certainly within the CDC's purview:

Mail-In voting is the right prescription for Covid-19:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/cdc-recommends-mail-methods-voting-due-coronavirus-contradicting-trumps

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

From the WUWT link re Ferguson's code;

--after having been upgraded for over a month by a team from Microsoft and others--

Since IMHE is funded by the ubiquitous geekloid Gates, I wonder if the same team helped Murray with his mess too.

The world would be a much better place full of lunatic John McAfees hiding out in the jungles of Belize, sending cryptic, paranoid messages out via pirate radio than it is full of do-goodin, puddin'-heads like Gates who can't go one whole day without finding some comfortable, contented soul who didn't realize what his life really needs is some uber-rich busy-body working out his guilt to come along, stand him up, dust him off and improve him for his own frickin good.
He's Carrie Nation with a syringe instead of an ax.

MissMarple2

Melinda,

I listened to Part One of that Chanel-Rudy special. VERY informative and if Rudy were on Fix or CNN for the same amount of time, this enitre impeachment hoax would have been DOA. I will listen to the next part later this morning, and will recommend it to a friend.

MissMarple2

Fox, not Fix!

Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma

Happy Birthday, JimmyK!

The aught issue? Simple, just count backwards from an aught year each year and when you hit the lower aught year start counting up again.

Forever in your 40s. :) or 50s or whatever decade you choose to relive.

I just turned 38! :)

Melinda

IG-

There's links at Hoft's joint that asserts that Birx and Fauci used Ferguson's model to convince DJT to shutter down.

Old Lurker

TK, go on the roof of a strip center and look for wires running from one HVAC unit over to the next door unit...

Ask me how I know that too!

Ask me How I know that a pizza guy whose bathroom backs up to his neighbors bathroom can slip in a little cold water to cold water jumper...

And I never did understand why the phone company puts all of their junction boxes on the alley walls of centers wide open to anybody with a pair of alligator clips.

And Coax splitters for the cable guys.

Threadkiller

LOL, OL.

Ok, really going now.

Melinda

This looks nice, and, yes, I know it's "Forbes":

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2020/05/07/chinese-military-cyber-spies-just-caught-crossing-a-very-dangerous-new-line/amp/

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

It says something profoundly evil about twitter that a gif of Old Glory can be flagged as sensitive, presumably because it sported the name of the evil Flynn. So attaching the flag to the name of a guy being hounded and railroaded is too much for the pygmy Dorsey.
Whoever that conservative was who put money into that garbage company should buy a controlling interest and fix it.

I hope Flynn is exonerated for a number of reasons but a large one would be to shut the loudmouth progs up, like Jeralyn Merritt, who constantly disparage Sydney Powell as third rate.
Just win, baby.

Neo

Why Hospitals in NYC Have Abandoned Hydroxychloroquine
"We know now it probably doesn’t help much," said Dr. Thomas McGinn, Deputy Physician-In-Chief at Northwell Health. "We’re not recommending it as a baseline therapy anymore. It is only in a treatment protocol in a study that we’re recommending it."
https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/05/07/hospitals-in-nyc-abandon-hydroxychloroquine-treatment-touted-by-trump-

Neo

University of Wisconsin System President Ray Cross directed campuses Thursday to quickly identify signature programs worthy of preservation and brace for layoffs as the coronavirus pandemic deepens the system's financial losses.

Harvard University is preparing to cut more expenses as revenue losses deepen due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The university reported a $415 million revenue loss in fiscal year 2020, and it projects a $750 million shortfall from original budget plans in the next fiscal year, which begins July 1.

Tonto

Happy Birthday, Jimmy!

jimmyk

loudmouth progs up, like Jeralyn Merritt

I still remember when she was the go-to site for the Trayvon Martin case, and seemed relatively sane and dispassionate as libs go. Did Trump send her off the deep end too?

Neo

Ric Grenell, President Donald Trump's acting director of national intelligence, informed lawmakers this week in newly disclosed correspondence that the White House has dropped its demand to review aspects of the testimony, which had led to a yearlong standoff with Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff, who took control of the committee last year.
The move paves the way for as many as 53 transcripts from that investigation to be released publicly, more than two years after the probe concluded.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/06/russia-probe-transcripts-poised-for-release-after-end-of-intel-review-240334

Who knew ?

Captain Hate

Wow, the Supreme Court *unanimously* threw out all the Bridgegate convictions of Fat RINO Bastard.

Springsteen must be weeping.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--There's links at Hoft's joint that asserts that Birx and Fauci used Ferguson's model to convince DJT to shutter down.--

Well, Trump himself has used Imperial's numbers.
I may get myself in trouble with this but as I've said many time ad infinitum the unmitigated number is pretty simple. You don't need 15,000 lines of code. A cellphone calculator is much more than enough.
The R0 gives you the approximate attack rate [he used 80%] and the CFR gives you a guess at the IFR [he used .9%]
Multiply for number of dead.
His attack rate may have been somewhat off and his IFR may have been 2, 3 or maybe even 10 times too high, but that's because he had incomplete data and his assumptions were off, not bad software. And of course R0 can change over time and space as can IFR and CFR.
And it's natural for any fudging to trend high because if it turns out 100,000 died instead of 200,000 you can say, gee glad it wasn't as bad as it could have been. If it turns out 1,000,000 died instead of 200,000 you get sued and/or go to jail or otherwise get fricasseed.
If the assumptions had been 60% attack rate and .1% IFR then you end up with 200,000 dead not 2,000,000. The question is can any model produce useful numbers in such a circumstance before the facts are known. If the IFR turns out to be .1% or lower then in this case the answer will turn out to be no.
But if the answer is no then what do policy makers base their decisions on? Because despite the fudge factor the next bug might combine SARS 1 and SARS 2 and end up ten times deadlier than we thought rather than ten times less so.
If you read that Edwark Luttwalk link yesterday to the initial bubonic plague of Justinian's time [or Thucydides account of Athens' plague], we're fighting these bugs not too differently than we did 1500 or 2500 years ago.
You haven't come a long way at all baby.

I believe Ferguson's software problems came mainly from his mitigated numbers. If you look at his charts they have a hundred different assumptions and guesses and produce numbers all over the place.

Captain Hate

Who knew ?

The rest of us. Yesterday.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Did Trump send her off the deep end too?--

Don't know. But she's always had a less than charitable attitude toward most lawyers supporting someone she doesn't like.
And her commenters who she interacts with a lot are worse.

lyle

HB, jimmyk!

lyle

I believe Ferguson's software problems came mainly from his mitigated numbers.

He apparently had no hardware problems with his married-to-another-man paramour...🤨

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

My impression was from a visit I made there a month or two ago when Powell had filed some motion or other and she and the commenters were ridiculing it, and Powell, in a less than professional manner.

Used to get the same professorial pricks in the Volokh comments.

jimmyk

Thanks, lyle, iggy, joan, tonto, OL, and any others I might have missed.

Feeling great, but this is the first birthday in years I can't play tennis, despite it being a perfect day, high 65 and not a cloud to be seen.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

LOL, lyle.
Gotta go.

Porchlight

Happy birthday, jimmyk! Congrats on avoiding the party, but I hope there will be celebration of your choosing down the line, when appropriate venues reopen. :)

Tom R

But if the answer is no then what do policy makers base their decisions on?

When the entire world saw how the ChiComms enforced a totalitarian lockdown of an entire province that sends a strong signal of how lethal the ChiComms believed the virus to be. They bio-engineered the virus so they would know.

Porchlight

Shop vac is great until you're reminded you also used it for dead mouse retrieval.

Ask me how I know that one for two months....

Mr Porch will not let anything smelly, or potentially smelly, near his shop vac. I guess it makes sense.

MissMarple2

It’s time to strip these companies of all the protections they get from government. If the Social Media Masters want to censor one side’s free speech they should not have those protections from the Govt.

You can’t discriminate and still be protected by taxpayer $$$ #Censorship https://t.co/6qMhW2eYSQ

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) May 7, 2020

Link goes to a thread discussing the newly appointed Facebook commie censorship board.

Porchlight

But if the answer is no then what do policy makers base their decisions on?

What did we use to base our decisions on?

We certainly understood until 2020 that shutting down the worldwide economy was not a "solution" to anything.

Old Lurker

Ig " then what do policy makers base their decisions on? "

Start by asking your advisors: "Doc, has any nation ever locked down its entire economy, thrown 20% of the workforce out of work, and ordered everybody to their rooms and then been successful in stopping a virus in its tracks?"

If the answer is "no", then please explain why this time will be different.

Then ask your money guys: "If we do as the Doc suggests, how much will that cost the country for each month? After paying that price, then how long will it take for us to return to 80% of our economy, how long to 90%, then how long to 100%? After answering that, please tell me how much we will have to borrow to pay for Doc's idea, and how long will it take to pay that debt off?"

Come back in 24 hours with your answers and then we can draft a press release.

jimmyk

I believe Ferguson's software problems came mainly from his mitigated numbers. If you look at his charts they have a hundred different assumptions and guesses and produce numbers all over the place.

My professional bias (from my own mentors) is for simpler, more transparent models over big black boxes in which (to mix metaphors) no one knows where the bodies are buried. The knock on simple models is that the world is complex, and now we have the computational tools and speed to handle complex models. The problem is that there is much more scope for little errors and inaccuracies, and our brains haven't gotten much better to be able to really understand what's going on in these big models. Not to mention the potential for outright fraud. Again, think climate science.

Porchlight

OL, add to your questions: "and how many people will die/have their lives ruined/be thrown into poverty if we choose the shutdown approach?"

As someone else put it a few weeks ago, in the beginning, we had 3% of the population and healthcare workers to worry about. Now we have 100% of the population to worry about.

Great job.

And it's not like it wasn't easily foreseeable (and foreseen). There's a reason we never took this approach before.

jimmyk

Thanks, porch. I got the surprise party treatment 10 years ago. I don't think anyone really likes being thrown a surprise party. Fun for the throwers but not for the victim.

MissMarple2

.@GOPLeader takes aim at House Dems for keeping the House closed while Starbucks is open:

“If you go two blocks away, you can get a tea or a latte but the Democrats on this side of the House will not let us legislate.”
pic.twitter.com/Y7uO2B55Wj

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) May 7, 2020

Link goes to 1 1/2 minute video of Kevin McCarthy at a press conference. This guy sure has become a lot bolder since Paul Ryan left and President Trump is in the Oval Office.

peter

HB, Jimmyk, it's an honor to know you.
I know I have said this in the past, but you share a birthday with my son, as well as Tschaikovsky, Brahms and actor Gary Cooper. (We watched several Gary Cooper movies on Turner in the maternity ward while my wife was in labor.)

Great toilet repair stories as well! Ask me how I know? Ever overtorque the bolts on a two piece and crack the porcelain? Ask me

NYC will use powerful UV LIGHTS to kill the coronavirus on subways and buses--the homeless will have great tans! Mahvelous!

Old Lurker

Jimmy, I have said several times that when I started in commercial real estate with the ink on my MBA still wet, and with my ability to model anything in Fortran as long as my boss would find me a timeshare account and a terminal, I was flabbergasted that these old guys made buy sell decisions for huge projects doing numbers on the back of the proverbial envelope.

When I arrived at their age later in my own life, I was doing the same thing, I was just getting my envelopes from Amazon.

Those old guys were pretty smart afterall.

anonamom

Quirky word usage, MI version

Quirky word usage. In NY you go to the beach. In NJ you go to the shore. When you get to the shore then you go to the beach.

In MI, you go Up North. (almost always to stay at a cottage, on a lake). When you get Up North, you are at The Lake.

The Lake is THE lake your family goes to--no matter which of the bozillion lakes, everybody knows that when you refer to The Lake you mean your family's lake.

Old Lurker

Tru dat, Porch, tru dat.

Porchlight

jimmyk, surprise parties suck. I prayed not to get one when I turned 50 and thankfully was spared.

jimmyk

But if the answer is no then what do policy makers base their decisions on?

Experience, gut instinct guided by an understanding of the basic mechanisms involved. Learn as you muddle along. The models are as likely to lead you astray as they are to help.

This isn't literal rocket science, where you need (and can get) absolute precision or else you get catastrophic failure. The models are really only useful to guide your intuition.

Porchlight

The Lake is THE lake your family goes to--no matter which of the bozillion lakes, everybody knows that when you refer to The Lake you mean your family's lake.

Same in MN.

MissMarple2

anonamom,

In my family we went to our "cabin" in Wisconsin. (Wisconsin wasn't REALLY Wisconsin until we got north of Green Bay in the Nicolet National Forest.)

Tom R

We certainly understood until 2020 that shutting down the worldwide economy was not a "solution" to anything.

It was Trump's solution to prevent the healthcare infrastructure from getting overwhelmed which was stated up front as the primary goal.

Narciso

She had a brief moment if sanity, then brainslugs resumed.

Captain Hate

There was plenty of meat in the grocery store this morning, including beef.

Neo

The Supreme Court has thrown out the convictions of two people involved in New Jersey’s “Bridgegate” scandal.
The court said in a unanimous decision Thursday that the government had overreached in prosecuting Bridget Kelly and Bill Baroni for their roles in creating a massive traffic jam to punish a New Jersey mayor who refused to endorse the reelection of then-Republican Gov. Chris Christie.

jimmyk

Thanks, peter, happy birthday to your son.

Narciso

Wray did help stay puft get through this mockasham no good deed goes unpunished.

Old Lurker

There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US. One guy in DC knows what's best for all of them?

Aren't we lucky.

MissMarple2

Thread showing that everything that has transpired was discussed in an episode of "Dead Zone" in 2003:

https://twitter.com/Mile_Voli_Disk0/status/1258420299781079042

(You may commence playing the theme to "Twilight Zone.")

Dave (in MA)

The last thing I care about is golf, but there was no reason to keep the MA courses shut. Acc. to buzz on Twitter, several course owners called Charlie Baker's office and said they were going to pull a Shelley Luther, and he caved under the pressure.

anonamom

HAPPY 60th BIRTHDAY jimmy k!

You're my excuse to drink at lunch today! ;-)

MissMarple2

Brad Parscale - Download our Trump 2020 App today!
@parscale
·
2h
For nearly three years we have been building a juggernaut campaign (Death Star). It is firing on all cylinders. Data, Digital, TV, Political, Surrogates, Coalitions, etc.

In a few days we start pressing FIRE for the first time.

I didn’t give our campaign the name, Death Star, the media did. However, I am happy to use the analogy. The fact is, we haven’t used it yet. Laugh all you want, we will take the win!

Dave (in MA)

Happy Nth, jimmyk!

Jane

JIb,

Did you see my question about which Ipad you bought? If so, I missed your answer.

Well I drove to Walmart!!! I can honestly say driving was a lot easier than shopping!

Tom R

OL @ 11:41

What purpose does it serve for you to continuously engage in 20/20 hindsight to undermine Trump's decision making? Are you trying to influence more JOM posters to start criticizing Trump for how he handled the crisis?

rse

Happy b'day jimmy!!

My son was 3 when we were building this house and always called it "the property" and had "property boots" because it could get muddy when we were clearing the lot.

MissMarple2

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-valet-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma

There was plenty of meat in the grocery store this morning, including beef.


NO Chicken at 6 am at Kroger this morning. And the prepackaged deli meats (don't know about the deli department I didn't look there) were slim pickins, too.

I give my dogs Buddig Beef for treats (two are allergic to chicken and I avoid the dog treats from Chyna) and it's been out of stock for 3 weeks. I bought a case and froze some last time I found it, but dayum I'm about out.

President-Elect Jim,SunnyvaleCA

TM: "Energize the (Dem) base!"
Yeah, Dems trying to ratchet up their bases's energy level.

TM: "I'm just a tired old Yankee who is losing patience with this bullshit."
But, honestly, is this truly a national issue? Is this a local issue of importance to that community or is this going on all over the nation? (If it's local, then shame on Dems and the enemedia for elevating it to Something We Must All Discuss because America evil.

Now take the TX hairdresser. I'd argue that's an event with national import. Because there's a ton of related events. Police helicopters over beaches in CA, citizens with guns on the Capitol steps in MI, the assault vehicle used to shut down a bar in TX, Dem officials wielding tyrannical powers in jurisdictions across the land.

See the difference?

Another Bob

“engage in 20/20 hindsight”

Because past behavior informs future behavior.

While I support Trump, he is not a God who is beyond question. And I don’t understand why anyone would think he is.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame