JustOneMinute

Hold The Fake News Presses!

Wait, what?!? The big NY Times scoop about Russian bounties to the Taliban for killing Americans was raw intel the credibility of which was still being assessed? Whoa, Fake News Watch!

Although, don't rule out this scenario - Faction A is convinced the intl is legitimate. Faction B is convinced that the US/Russian relationship is complicated, we have no good responses, we don't need this aggravation right now,and anyway like most intel, this report has holes.

The upshot: Faction B is slow-walking, foot-dragging, and basically hoping to bury this under unanswerable follow-up questions. A frustrated Faction A leaks the mess to the press. And here we are, lost in the fog.

Unrelated - defund the police in NYC! Why not, its not as if they are keeping crime down.

Here is a factoid meriting a bit of homework:

Commissioner Dermot Shea says the city’s homicide rate has hit a five-year high and the amount of people shot so far this year has jumped 42% compared to the same period last year.

He said there were 100 shootings in the city in the month of May.

Not having looked, I'd have guessed homicides were below average during the March/April lockdowns. Which suggests May/June must have been nuts.

I haven't found what I want but here are the monthly NYC crime summaries for:

January   Shooting incidents:    2019: 52; 2020 67       +15

February                                 2019: 42; 2020: 45        -3

March                                     2019: 56; 2020: 56          0

April                                       2019: 62; 2020: 56         -6

May                                       2019: 61; 2020: 100     +39

28 Day is most of June            2019: 80; 2020: 149     +69

Clearly unrelated to protests, reopenings or really, anything at all.

 

 

Barack Is Back! Or His Excuses Are Back, Anyway

WTF? The Russians were paying bounties to the Taliban for killing US troops? And possibly British troops too? Although there seems to be a widespread consensus that this happened and the intel reports were discussed within the White House, Trump is sticking with his story that he was never briefed and, I presume, heard about this from the news.

Shades of Obama! 

Walking A Tightrope

Joe Biden's puppeteers have a real challenge coming up with a platform on police reform.

Given Biden's record on police reform (the 90's bill he backed is loathed by progressives) Biden has at best a 'Nixon-to China' opportunity. But the progressive wing of his party, where his appeal is most limited, is also out of touch with mainstream voters (Betcha nobody saw that coming, other than everybody.)

Any policy proposal today will have to survive a summer gauntlet that holds the *possibility* of a national disaster and public backlash. I'm thinking of more riots or something like the 2016 Dallas and 2014 NY police assassinations, which followed Ferguson.

Doing nothing, saying nothing, and hiding in the basement bunker while Trump digs his own grave is a very appealing strategy. It's not leadership, but it may be Biden's the safest path to victory.

In a typically thoughtful piece dumping on Trump for losing touch even with his base, Peggy Noonan has this criticism of Biden (subscription required unless its bootlegged somewhere):

And it’s always possible Joe Biden will awaken to the moment we’re in, see that a leader isn’t someone who sits back in a sunny, well-appointed suburban room and watches, passively, as dramatic events unfold. He could emerge as a real leader with a series of statements putting forth guiding principles to weather our crises. We have problems with race, problems with the police. What rearrangements should be made? How do we make them nonviolently, democratically? What is the meaning of history? What is a statue? What is socialism? What is the path?

He is bowing to the ancient political wisdom that you should never interrupt a man while he’s destroying himself. And he’s afraid of being on the wrong side of rising progressive forces. But thoughtfulness and seriousness would put him squarely with wavering Trump supporters and the honestly undecided, and reassure them that a vote for him is not also a vote for unchecked extremism and mayhem.

Silence is short-term shrewd. Rising to the occasion, taking a chance, making a gamble when everything is going your way but the country needs more—that is long-term wise. And wise always beats shrewd in the end.

 

 

Ready For The Weekend

Here we go again.

Cases Surging. Deaths To Follow?

This is not going well. Coronavirus testing is turning up lots of new cases in many states. But does that mean infection is spreading, or simply more testing turning up more cases? One measure is "positivity" - if the percentage of tests coming back positive is rising as testing expands, that suggests rising infection.

A pretty solid lagging indicator is deaths. The conventional wisdom seems to be that the time lag from a positive test to death can be two to three weeks. From the charts below, the beginning of the positive test surges in Texas and Florida began at the start of June. Two to three weeks later deaths do not appear to be rising. Will that keep up?

One hope/theory is that the young and restless are getting out, getting infected, getting tested, and not dying. Florida releases some demographic data on the positive test results, and the proportion of young testing positive has been rising. So, good-ish news.

Wall Street has finally gotten nervous about this in the last couple of days. I've never stopped being nervous. By next week, if deaths start to clearly rise, maybe we all will be.

Some cool pics from Worldometer and Johns Hopkins.

Texas cases:

TX Deaths:

Florida cases:

FL deaths:

California cases:

CA deaths:

No Noose Is Good News

The NASCAR noose outrage takes a pit stop.

Happy Father's Day All!

I hope it was fun.

On a newsy topic I am intrigued by this Fox News poll. However, its June. Given his history on criminal justice reform, Biden won't be the guy to corral the put-of-control Democratic left. Will anyone? Or does Trump ride a Law and Order backlash back into the White House? Plenty of crazy still ahead.

How About That Rally?

Trump in Tulsa - I was expecting (or resigned to) an earth-shattering KA-BOOM!

Living On Tulsa Time

Bracing for the brawl to settle it all tomorrow. Eric Claption kicks it off.

Trouble In Paradise

There is moss on our lawn furniture and my wife is not lichen it.  Thanks, I'll be here all week. Cleaning.

I did make a friend! In the course of moving some rocks and giving some rotted logs the old heave-ho I exposed a lot of topsoil. A robin showed up and was hopping around within in four feet of me, scoring about a worm a minute. This bird had a pretty good read on my quickness and agility - I had to take at least two lumbering steps toward it before it would give me a courtesy hop and move a few feet away. I think we both know I kill chipmunks and squirrels, not birds. With traps of course! I'm not catching them bare-handed either.

Pick A Name

Former Secretary of Defense Gates comes out in favor of re-naming the Army bases currently named for a bunch of Confederate losers and traitors who, BTW and thank Heaven, lost.

His PR people probably could have coached him up a bit:

“The events since the killing of George Floyd present us with an opportunity where we can move forward to change those bases,” Mr. Gates said in an interview. “It’s always puzzled me that we don’t have a Fort George Washington or a Fort Ulysses S. Grant or a Fort Patton or a facility named for an African-American Medal of Honor recipient. 

Jiminy, don't offer three white guys and a player to be named later! Do the homework and pick a name or two. Black Medal of Honor winners are here. Don't spend too much time looking for a general - the highest ranking officers are Lt. Col. Rogers and Capt. Pitt of Vietnam. The Civil War provides many candidates and a number of Master Sergeants - Fort Fleetwood has a nice ring to it.

And Lt. Baker of WWII sounds like Audie Murphy on steroids:

For extraordinary heroism in action on 5 and 6 April 1945, near Viareggio, Italy. Then Second Lieutenant Baker demonstrated outstanding courage and leadership in destroying enemy installations, personnel and equipment during his company's attack against a strongly entrenched enemy in mountainous terrain. When his company was stopped by the concentration of fire from several machine gun emplacements, he crawled to one position and destroyed it, killing three Germans. Continuing forward, he attacked an enemy observation post and killed two occupants. With the aid of one of his men, Lieutenant Baker attacked two more machine gun nests, killing or wounding the four enemy soldiers occupying these positions. He then covered the evacuation of the wounded personnel of his company by occupying an exposed position and drawing the enemy's fire. On the following night Lieutenant Baker voluntarily led a battalion advance through enemy mine fields and heavy fire toward the division objective. Second Lieutenant Baker's fighting spirit and daring leadership were an inspiration to his men and exemplify the highest traditions of the Armed Forces.

Gates did wonder why there is no Fort Patton. Fort Hood is up for grabs and was home to the 20th Armored after WWII; the 20th was also in Patton's 3rd Army that swept across France. Fort Patton or Fort Hood? Come on, ask me a hard one!

As to what or whether this will happen, who knows? There is an opportunity here for a national feel-good moment while we argue about the many black heroes on offer and debate who is most exemplary. Fort Tubman, for her work on the Underground Railroad? Tell me more!

The re-naming idea found bipartisan support on the Senate Armed Services Committee and Gates (as well as Gen. Petraeus (ret.) ought to have some sway here. But Trump does not gravitate towards "feel-good" when there is a chance for a shouting, divisive brawl. I suspect this will be an opportunity lost.

Sorry, folks - no Fort Patton. President Biden will assuredly not be naming any bases after white guys (General George Washington, slave-owner? Har de 'effin har.) When Fort Hood is finally renamed, well, we'll see.

But speaking of Biden (you remember him? The guy who used to be Obama's Vice-President?) let's remind ourselves of Gates great quote:

Having served eight presidents, including as C.I.A. director under President George Bush, Mr. Gates has been called one of the most admired public servants in modern times by Democrats and Republicans.

...

As for the fall election, Mr. Gates would not say whom he supported. In a previous book, he wrote that while he respected former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. as “a man of integrity,” he was “wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”

Gates is not doubling down on that but he is not backing down either:

On Sunday, Mr. Gates stood by that assessment. “The one place I would take it back — during the Obama administration, we agreed more than we disagreed,” he said, citing their mutual opposition to intervening in Libya or pushing for the resignation of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak.

In a separate interview Sunday on “Meet the Press” on NBC, he went a bit further. He noted his policy disagreements with Mr. Biden, then added, “But I think one of the things that people will be weighing this fall is probably the character of the two contestants.”

Probably.

Cornell Burning. Metaphorically.

Prof. Jacobsen of the Legal Insurrection blog has been targeted by the progressive community at Cornell. The short version is, criticize looters or BLM and you're deemed to be a racist hater unfit for campus life. Don't expect the dean to stand tall for free speech or academic freedom. "Racist" is the Ace of trump right now.

Jonathan Turley blasted Cornell.

I will say - between COVID, on-line classes and the end of free speech, those Ivy price tags seem mighty high.

Trump Headed To J'ville!

It's On To Jacksonville for Trump and the Republican Convention! That's a big home-town win for some JOM longtimers.

After replacing their convention site, I do hope the RNC staffers can find "Global Replace" om their word processing software - this is a JV moment:

G.O.P. Platform, Rolled Over From 2016, Condemns the ‘Current President’

After the Republican National Committee kept outdated language from four years ago, when Barack Obama was still president, the party’s platform includes more than three dozen unflattering references to those in power at the White House.

I don't remember this sort of thing happening when Lee Atwater was around.

Here We Go Again

Away we go.

WHO Has News; Who Cares?

WHO has a cryptic bit of news on COVID-19:

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says

Hmm, so why are people without symptoms wearing masks, one might ask? One answer - to avoid stigmatizing those who do. But a second answer is, not so fast - WHO used a very strict definition of "asymptomatic" - plenty of folks with barely noticeable and/or unusual symptoms were not considered asymptomatic by WHO but would not be considered sick by most of us and were not considered symptomatic by the health authorities making the original reports:

The World Health Organization says it still believes the spread of the coronavirus from people without symptoms is “rare,” despite warnings from numerous experts worldwide that such transmission is more frequent and likely explains why the pandemic has been so hard to contain.

Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19 said at a press briefing on Monday that many countries are reporting cases of spread from people who are asymptomatic, or those with no clinical symptoms. But when questioned in more detail about these cases, Van Kerkhove said many of them turn out to have mild disease, or unusual symptoms.

Well then, confusing. I say "Defund WHO!", mainly because its not clear what that means either.

 

 

Faster Pander More

I'm blaming a two month lockdown for making everyone crazy.

The Minneapolis Student City Council will disband the police. Not cray-cray, by the way - Camden NJ disbanded the city police force and ended the union. Hired back a lot of the old cops and more young ones, doubling the size of the force while cutting payroll. A few years later the police voted to re-unionize. Camden has been handling the recent protests successfully. Keep hope alive!

Meanwhile, in another wing of the asylum insurgents have overrun the NY Times editors office. Editorial Page editor James Bennet will be leaving to spend more time with his book deal, or something. Times coverage notes his earlier mis-steps at the Times. This will warm hearts here:

Mr. Bennet’s tenure as editorial page editor, which started in 2016, was marked by several missteps. Last spring, The Times apologized for an anti-Semitic cartoon that appeared in the Opinion pages of its international edition.

Last August, a federal appellate court found that Sarah Palin, the former vice-presidential candidate, could proceed with a defamation lawsuit against The Times over an editorial edited by Mr. Bennet that inaccurately linked her statements to the 2011 shooting of a congresswoman.

Ben Smith, now of the Times, reports on other Newsrooms Burning. This paragraph is an instant classic, my emphasis:

But the shift in mainstream American media — driven by a journalism that is more personal, and reporters more willing to speak what they see as the truth without worrying about alienating conservatives — now feels irreversible. It is driven in equal parts by politics, the culture and journalism’s business model, relying increasingly on passionate readers willing to pay for content rather than skittish advertisers.

Alienating progressives remains a critical worry.

That media dynamic - the hunt for clicks and likes from engaged partisans - got a lot of attention during the Covington HS meltdown.

 

 

In From The Wild

OK, I'm back from a major backyard binge clearing brush and felling small trees. VERY Reaganesque, or Bush 43-ish. Also managed to maintain proper social distancing, since it was just me and my chainsaw. And a handsaw. Hand clippers for the small stuff branches.  OK, but distanced!

All very fun. There was one close call - I finished with a small stand of small trees, had the chain saw humming and - for just two seconds - the demon took me and I could see a clear cut trail from my yard to Oregon. Harrrhhh!  And a deep breath! The moment passed and the continent is safe.

My impression is stuff is going on. I'm afraid to ask...

Mad Dog Barking

Gen. Mattis, Trump's former SecDef, lets us know what he really thinks about Trump. CNN says its a big deal, as they would. Still, a former SecDef firing away, SecDef Esper carving his own path om the use of troops, Obama and Bush joining in with suggestions and an absence of praise for the current administration - not good.

Is Minnesota Burning?

In a break from my normal routine I turned on the television to get an update on whether America burned down last night.

On CNN, a panel was asked how hard we could blame Trump for last night's outrages.

On Fox, panelists wondered how hard we could blame various governors.

On CNBC, the anchors wondered whether we'd see another COVID spike (the demonstrations are outdoors w/ youngsters, so MAYBE not. Beside, who has time for testing right now?)

I wondered what happened last night and why stocks were up in the US and all over the world despite the best week for US anarchists in decades. I'm still wondering, although four cops shot/wounded in St Louis looks like the lede. And yes, its the Honey Badger Dow. Pandemics, riots, trade wars? Honey Badger Dow don't care.

FWIW, Fox News chatted with Byron Donalds, a Republican in the Florida House competing for a US seat (FL19) left open by the impending retirement of Republican Rooney. Impressive - here's your chance to give him $5. 

Now returning to my quiet contemplation with the TV off until its time for Jeopardy.