JustOneMinute

Last Gasp

The Hunter Biden thing won't change minds but here we go: a cybersecurity pro says the metadata confirms the authenticity of the emails.

The gist is that Gmail uses a "DKIM" protocol to authenticate emails and the Hunter email matches the e-signature of the sender. So the key email really is from Burisma.

However, my impression is that if someone hacked into, or otherwise gained access to the Burisma system, they could send out signed emails. Who among us has not had their email hacked, to the annoyance of everyone on our contact list?

Shenanigans in the Ukraine seem to be a theme to this story, so who knows?

From Wikipedia on DKIM:

As to the Hunter Biden thing changing minds, who ya gonna believe, me and Lyin' Ted Cruz, or our President?

Trump also continues to hone in on Hunter Biden in the closing days of the campaign, despite allies like Sen. Ted Cruz warning him that it’s not a winning final message. Trump even acknowledged as much in Florida. “I get a call from all the experts, right?” Trump roared to the crowd. “Guys that ran for president six, seven, eight times. Never got past the first round, but they’re calling me up, ‘Sir, you shouldn’t be speaking about Hunter. You shouldn’t be saying bad things about Biden because nobody cares.’ I disagree. Maybe that’s why I’m here and they’re not. But they say, ‘Talk about your economic success. Talk about 33.1 percent, the greatest in history.’ Now, look, if I do, I mean, how many times can I say it?”

I have not run for President six times. But any day now!

 

Texas A Toss-Up?

The Cook Political Report re-rates Texas as a toss-up and I may throw up. For reassurance, the betting site Predictit.org still has Trump at about 70% to carry it.

Meanwhile, in the upper Midwest, Wisconsin is a disaster for Trump.

Here We Go Again

ACB in! The vote was 52-48, with all Democrats a "No, Bite Me". IIRC (and I just looked it up yesterday) Gorsuch got three Dem votes (Manchin, Heidi Unspellable and Sen. Forgettable); Kavanaugh got a Yes from Manchin.

Susan Collins voted No in a desperate bid to save her seat in two weeks, so yes, Republicans overcame bipartisan opposition.

Running - How Does It Work?

Daniel Jones of the Football Giants delivered an instant NFL classic - an 80 yard untouched run with the endzone 90 yards away.

But everybody wants to get into the act! In an absolutely wild ending to a Major League game (but common in Little League!) the Dodgers mishandle the ball like a hot potato while the potential game-ending run roars around the bases, stumbles, falls, somersaults, and scores! 

Do let me add - Fall guy Randy Arozarena is a stud athlete with a background in gymnastics and street dance. Oh, yeah, he can play a little baseball too, since his nine playoff home runs are a new record. GO Rays!

PICKY, PICKY: You want to say he didn't somersault, he rolled? Doesn't matter - I'll be telling my grandkids he cartwheeled into a back flip. They can look it up!

 

Debate Post-Game

Not so bad! In a more restrained and effective debate performance Trump may have even picked up support, but I still think its too little too late.

However, if there are still minds to be changed Biden may have helped change them. The "All The News We Need To Bury" Times told us in paragraph eight that the Biden Gaffe-omatic didn't act up:

Significantly, Mr. Biden made no serious error of the sort that could haunt him in the final days of a race in which he’s leading.

In the - I kid you not - final paragraph the Times includes an 'oh, yeah, there was an awkward moment when Biden said he'd shut down the oil industry':

At the end of the debate, Mr. Biden said he would push the country to “transition from the oil industry,” adding that “the oil industry pollutes significantly” and that he would end federal subsidies. Sensing an opening, Mr. Trump said “that’s a big statement” and then invoked a series of states with energy-heavy industries. “Will you remember that Texas? Will you remember that Pennsylvania, Oklahoma?”

No biggie! Forbes quickly found a few swing-seat Dems running from that remark as if they were playing S-P-U-D. The WaPo offered a column wondering just how bad this remark was. I think their gist is it may not hurt Biden with his New York and California donors, but I may need to read it more carefully:

How politically damaging were Biden’s comments about closing down the oil industry?

If you have to ask...

Biden said at the debate he would transition away from oil, then later clarified that he would stop giving federal subsidies to the industry

"Later clarified"? A Golden Rule I learned from careful study of Veep: If they walk it back its a line of attack.

As to the merits, this McKinsey outlook from Jan 2019 projected peak oil production in the early 2030s, or maybe sooner. Usage in power generation and road transport will decline with alternative energy and electric vehicles. However, sea and air transport won't be battery driven anytime soon (but clipper ships!). And a lot of oil is an input to chemical products (one word - plastics!), so there's that.

Well. Sufficient unto 2020 are the many burdens thereof. It seems absurd that Trump needs help in Texas, but he just got some.

Strangely Reassuring

The AstraZeneca vaccine trial in Brazil will continue despite the death of a trial volunteer who apparently got the placebo.

Monday, Monday

My unified telephone/cable/internet service is mostly dead (although party alive.) But I'm sure things are happening!

Sunday Morning

My Tampa Bay Rays are in the World Series but the Beach-Ready Dodgers keep trying to climb out of a 3-1 hole. Now their series is 3-3 and Atlanta needs to finish them off tonight. Otherwise, useless LA can pick up two major championships in a span of a few weeks, which never happens unless you count hockey, which on one should ever do.

On the other hand... if the Rays can win the title by beating the Yankees, Cheatin' 'Stros and Dodgers that is a heckuva run.  But they have to win! Hmm - maybe I should root for the Dodgers tonight and bank on the Rays humbling them on the big stage? Tough call!

Saturday Action!

I did catch a bit of the Thursday town halls after the Cheatin' 'Stros walked it off against my newly adopted Rays. I tuned in to Biden to see if I could fall asleep before he did but we both made it to the end! He handled the Stephanopolous softballs pretty well. There was never a chance Biden would be subjected to a grilling as Trump was but what I saw of Trump (near the end) was reassuring.

As to tonight - read this about Cuban defector Randy Arozarena and root for the Rays. This is not an easy call for Yankees fans, I should add - if the Rays lose the Yankees get company in the record books as the only two teams managing to blow a 3-0 lead. Misery loves company!

BUT, letting the Cheatin' Stros into the World Series means they might win it. TOO RISKY! Go, Rays!

 

On Distant Shores

Europe is headed back into the COVID tumbler despite a dearth of Texans, Floridians and MAGA hats. Lockdown fatigue, over-optimism and mask skepticism seem to have international appeal.

Hunter Emails, Media Meltdown

The NY Post runs a bizarre story of drowned Apples and Hunter emails. Let me say that by way of comparison, the media danced around the Steele dossier prior to the 2016 election because the allegations could not be verified. In early January 2017 Comey briefed Trump so his media pals could write "The President-elect was told today that Moscow allegedly had tapes of him peeing on hookers."  Keeping it classy!

Now Twitter has banned any link to the story because reasons, but mainly the material may have been obtained illegally by someone. Kind of not how Twitter treated Trump's tax returns, but that's TOTALLY different because more reasons.

This story will change nothing other than the blood pressure of partisans on both sides.

Chasing Amy

Day Two of the Senate Show!

 

Bonjour!

My man Rafa is rolling at Rolland Garros.

Damn Yankees!

Aaron Judge homers, then is robbed of a chance to rob a home run by a weird outfield wall that looks like a padded version of a prison fence. Or maybe a border fence?

Who Won and Who Cares?

I prefer Pence over Harris but if that debate didn't change any minds then Harris won. Time's a wastin' on the Trump turnaround.

Debate Night!

The Yankees are in a big game with the Rays so I may shirk my duty as a concerned citizen and skip the Big VP Debate. Kamala Harris was consistently dreadful in the Dem debates but now the moderator will be on her side, so we will see.

He's Back!

Trump back in the White House. Stimulus dead for now but I bet it comes back to life shortly.

Something Is Happening

Trump is pretty sick, or maybe he isn't. Not a lot of clarity here.

Sunday Action

No Cam Newton? Pats/Chiefs delayed?

Gonna be a long week. And I'll need TOTAL FOCUS to get the Yanks past those Rays.

And yes, WTF at the WH? That may try to distract me.

Trump Hospitalized?!?

Let's hope this is just a sensible precaution. I've read there is a Presidential Suite at Walter Reed used exclusively by, believe it or not, the POTUS.

Trump is taking a Regeneron antibody cocktail drug that is still in trials. FDA has approved compassionate use for other patients (so they company says) and now for Trump.

Their Sept 29 upbeat press release with preliminary results is here.

Eli Lilly also has an antibody cocktail which worked well, so this medical decision made lots of sense. There results are also more comprehensible, as presented here:

Eli Lilly reports this morning interim results from a placebo-controlled trial of one such compound, cloned in quantity from an antibody captured from the blood of a patient who recovered from COVID-19. In June, the company began a trial delivering either placebo or one of three doses of the antibody, called LY-CoV555, to 452 patients. These were not gravely ill people, but patients with mild or moderate symptoms who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 within the past 3 days and had not been hospitalized.

Five of 302 patients who received the drug ended up being hospitalized—1.7%. But nine of the 150 placebo patients ended up in the hospital—6%—meaning there was a 72% reduced risk of being hospitalized for patients who received the antibody versus those who received a placebo. The drug produced no serious side effects, the company reports.

So - among people with mild to moderate symptoms (like Trump, so far) 94% on placebo avoid serious illness, versus 98.3% of those who got the Eli Lilly treatment. Great odds versus even better odds, in other words, although that is across a range of ages and pre-existing conditions.

Trump, Melania Test Positive For COVID

OK, the first October Surprise of October is a big one - POTUS and FLOTUS test positive for COVID. (Pence tested negative.) So, stray synapses firing here:

First, c'mon, man, it's 2020. Biden and/or Trump getting a late case of COVID was always on the menu, a point I (and many) have made before.

A typical case progression can unfold over two-three weeks. Will anyone believe the daily reports coming from the White House? The same question would apply to Joe's basement, and there's still time for a two-fer.

Does this give Trump a face-saving excuse to avoid likely defeat and withdraw in favor of Pence? That wouldn't happen today, but if Trump gets sicker, keep it in mind. And what if, against the odds, its Melania that really spirals down? Again, face saving withdrawal?

IF Trump has a serious case (as a 73 year old heavy-set guy, his outlook isn't great), how long until he (and we) know if he's recovered? "Surviving" does not equal "thriving"?

Well, lots to think about...

The Yankees Win!

I'm not playoff-ready. I can't stay up to 1 AM watching this stuff. But yea!