Texas A Toss-Up?

The Cook Political Report re-rates Texas as a toss-up and I may throw up. For reassurance, the betting site Predictit.org still has Trump at about 70% to carry it.

Meanwhile, in the upper Midwest, Wisconsin is a disaster for Trump.

Comments

[Tom R]

RTR #1

[lyle]

Uh huh.

[Captain Hate]

Speaking of polls being worthless...

[Narciso]

Carrying over

https://mobile.twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1321482863024525314

[Tom R]

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/522939-early-voting-trends-show-democrats-falling-short-in-3-of-4

From the last thread:

For instance, in Pennsylvania, Democrats have cast 946,662 early votes and Republicans cast 262,838, for a 79 percent to 21 percent edge that is well above the 70 percent Dems need to hit in early voting to match Republican turnout on Election Day. Translation, advantage Democrats in Pennsylvania.

Let's assume that number is close to accurate. The real question is how many of those Democrats are White Working Class voters who voted for Trump in 2016?

Should this be read as California might be in play?

However, reports of the Democrats’ edge in mail in votes is exaggerated due to noncompetitive states like California where 2.9 million Democrats and only 1.1 million Republicans have voted early. If 72 percent of Republicans really are waiting until Election Day to vote the race becomes very close.

[danoso]

I'm old enough to remember the same headline from 2016 ...

[James D.]

From our host on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/tom_maguire/status/1321071436904148993?s=21

I find it incomprehensible and disheartening. How do you get through to intelligent, decent people who are just completely closed off to reality and sanity and absolutely refuse to see the left for what it really is?

[danoso]

PA had a 900k Dem registration advantage in 2016, Trump won anyway. That advantage is more like 725k today, but somehow it's moved left. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Narciso]

Weve run out of metals nate carbon?

[MissMarple2]

My guy Dilley thinks that we can win PA or Trump has decided to let the Dems think that they can grab it (whether they can or not) and that is why one of his stops in AZ today is up near the Nevada border, which is more in play than the Dems realize, probably due to loss of tourism jobs and small businesses.

[Narciso]

Oh

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russian-in-cyprus-was-behind-key-parts-of-discredited-dossier-on-trump-11603901989

[Melinda]

Risk Quantum
@RiskQuantum
Already €75 billion worth of @bancosantander's loans have seen moratoria expire. Like peers, the bank must hope that economies recover faster than payment freezes expire.

$SAN

risk.net/risk-quantum/7…

It's not a problem lending to lefty local governments, is it?

[Davod]

From previous post. Found at Instapundit.

Something of a creative read of the data (at link)...

@realericcarmen

Update from CDC
Of the 220,000 deaths reported as due to COVID, the actual cause was:
88,208 - pneumonia & influenza
17, 799 - chronic respiratory disease
26, 365 - respiratory distress synd.
44, 261 - hypertensive disease
23, 275 -heart disease
28, 000 -cardiac arrest

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

[Porchlight]

Uh, no, Texas is not a "tossup."

Come on TM. Don't you remember 2016?

[JimNorCal]

TX a toss-up and WI a disaster.
Well.
OK then.

(rolls eyes)

[henry]

Don’t know what is going on in Wisconsin. The Kung Flu “cases” are centered on the colleges and reservations. Can’t find the deaths looking at county data. Evers gets blamed anyway, not Trump. I’ve hung up on every poll inbound since 2016... get one or two poll calls a day on the landline. Maybe ABC is covering for vote fraud of epic amounts... something like 400,000 mail in ballots are still out there, and the USPS won’t guarantee they get delivered by Nov 3 (which thanks to the Supreme Court is a hard deadline). The latest is Milwaukee will take until lunch time on the 4th to count their ballots. (Time to see how many they need, produce them, then stuff the ballot boxes?).

[Jim Eagle]

I still believe there could be a sizable Dem crossover vote. In the South especially, conservative registered Democrats, sans the majority of AA, can be a huge difference.

[Dave (in MA)]

We need a poll about the worthlessness of polls.

[Porchlight]

For instance, in Pennsylvania, Democrats have cast 946,662 early votes and Republicans cast 262,838, for a 79 percent to 21 percent edge that is well above the 70 percent Dems need to hit in early voting to match Republican turnout on Election Day. Translation, advantage Democrats in Pennsylvania.

--First off, it's important to remember that PA does not have early voting in person.

In FL, Rs are beating Ds handily in in-person votes and are eating into Dems' overall lead daily.

--Second off, due to virus fear Ds have consistently said in polls that they plan to vote early over Rs, 2:1. So those PA vote by mail numbers make sense in that context.

It also means that ED votes will be much more heavily Republican than they would be in a normal election.

--Third off, a ton of Dems in PA are "ancestral" and voting R. Especially when Trump is on the ballot.

[Porchlight]

PA had a 900k Dem registration advantage in 2016, Trump won anyway. That advantage is more like 725k today, but somehow it's moved left. I'll believe it when I see it.

Great point danoso. FL registration numbers have moved even further in the Rs' favor.

[Captain Hate]

Even the AoS bedwetters are laughing at the "Texas is turning Blue" nonsense.

[Porchlight]

Today in history, October 28, 2106: Comey reopens the case on Hillary's emails after Weiner's laptop surfaces.

Isn't it wild?

In 2016 there was a laptop that involved the Dem candidate's closest aide and we never got to see what was on it.

In 2020 there is a laptop that involves the Dem candidate's family and we get to see all of it.

Hard not to conclude that a higher power is winking at us. ;)

[Porchlight]

*2016, lol

[JimNorCal]

Tom R: "RTR #1"
So ... Thomas is your middle name?

[Porchlight]

RSBN Trump rally live stream - Bullhead City, AZ:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCrMb0sM2Vk

And before TM panics, he's going to AZ to help save McSally who consistently polls behind him.

[Tom R]

Jim @ 1:49

My avatar should be enough of a hint.

[MissMarple2]

Porchlight,

Thanks for the link! Did you see the post on another reason for the Bullhead City rally?

[peter]

So going back to that TM tweet, what would be the rationale for negotiating a compromise with the Dems when they threaten to pack the court? Giving into them on this will just lead to more threats--adding states to the union, abolishing the electoral college, etc. etc., etc., etc.,

[matt - deplore me if you must]

My controller is Vietnamese. I saw an article on Biden's perfidy in 1974-75 blocking aid and trying to prevent Vietnamese refugees from entering the country. I mentioned it to her.

She told me that they all remember what Biden did. There is a very large Vietnamese population in Houston. They remember. Same in OC but we're screwed anyway.

Another friend lives in McAllen, a very blue county, and posted that long Trump caravans have been driving through town for weeks.

Tall walls matter, I guess.

[Porchlight]

No, MM, I think I missed it!

[Porchlight]

Spoke too soon - Trump live in Las Vegas right now:

https://youtu.be/qEfpYzoOBB0

[MissMarple2]

Porchlight,

Here's a repeat:

My guy Dilley thinks that we can win PA or Trump has decided to let the Dems think that they can grab it (whether they can or not) and that is why one of his stops in AZ today is up near the Nevada border, which is more in play than the Dems realize, probably due to loss of tourism jobs and small businesses.

[Narciso]

Fool nelson figured out that bit months

[Narciso]

Ago in the link.

[Porchlight]

Gotcha, MM, thanks! And Trump just finished speaking in Las Vegas (to press? not sure, small group indoors, not rally). Sooooo....

Meanwhile in Colorado:

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
1h

UPDATE: CO
Rs early vote now down by only 9%. Two weeks ago it was 30%, and just yesterday 10%.

This is astounding.

[Melinda]

Steve Bannon’s War Room
@WarRoomPandemic
.@RealSamFaddis: Then-VP @JoeBiden acquiesced and rolled over during failed Pivot to Asia, while his son #HunterBiden was bringing home billions of dollars from the #CCP

#WarRoomPandemic @WarRoom2020 #HardDriveFromHell #Hunterbidenlaptop #Bobulinski

https://twitter.com/WarRoomPandemic/status/1321497914397675520

30 second clip. Worth a listen.

[Dave (in MA)]

Ted Cruz@tedcruz
· An hour ago you couldn’t tweet this @nypost story.

Now you can.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/15/emails-reveal-how-hunter-biden-tried-to-cash-in-big-with-chinese-firm/



Ted Cruz@tedcruz

· 1h
What @jack told the Senate, under oath, is false. I just tried to tweet the @nypost story alleging Biden’s CCP corruption.

Still blocked.

18 USC 1621 makes it a felony to lie under oath to the Senate. twitter.com/abigailmarone/…

[Porchlight]

Well that's one good result from today's hearings then.

Good job, Cruz.

Everybody tweet it now!

[Another Bob]

WI a disaster for Trump?

Trump’s spending a lot of ammo on a lost cause then. How many appearances? Grenell has been living there for over a week now.

??

[matt - deplore me if you must]

Anyone hear from Jane? How is she doing?

[Dave (in MA)]

Ugh, my 200.5K

[Old Lurker]

Saw what you did there, Dave.

:-)

[Threadkiller]

What @jack told the Senate, under oath, is false. I just tried to tweet the @nypost story alleging Biden’s CCP corruption. Still blocked.

This is the towel Taquia Ted threw in while he was winning the fight. Dorsey explains to Ted that the NY Post needed to delete the tweet that was flagged and then repost the same content on a new tweet and the new tweet would not be blocked. Ted could not decide to keep screaming through his cheerleader megaphone or to place it on his own skull as a dunce cap.

Whether or not Dorsey was talking about a true remedy for the NY Post tweet could be argued as some lie, I guess. But Dorsey never said that the tweet was now available.

Ted is an idiot.

[Threadkiller]

What @jack told the Senate, under oath, is false. I just tried to tweet the @nypost story alleging Biden’s CCP corruption. Still blocked.

This is the towel Taquia Ted threw in while he was winning the fight. Dorsey explains to Ted that the NY Post needed to delete the tweet that was flagged and then repost the same content on a new tweet and the new tweet would not be blocked. Ted could not decide to keep screaming through his cheerleader megaphone or to place it on his own skull as a dunce cap.

Whether or not Dorsey was talking about a true remedy for the NY Post tweet could be argued as some lie, I guess. But Dorsey never said that the tweet was now available.

Ted is an idiot

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Anectodal... Signs all over the Keys reading

Ex Dems for Trump.

Lots of em.

[Melinda]

TK-

Ted, and only Ted, was toggled "on".

[James D.]

I’m with you, tk.

Cruz is too clever for his own good.

[Threadkiller]

Video at the link: https://www.commerce.senate.gov/2020/10/does-section-230-s-sweeping-immunity-enable-big-tech-bad-behavior

At 1hour and 56minutes Ted starts his rant.

[Dave (in MA)]

Of course she is.

7News Boston WHDH@7News
·
Hillary Clinton says she is an Electoral College elector in New York

[Dave (in MA)]

??? TK

Cruz demonstrated that Captain Nosering's claim before the Senate was false. TThey were still blocking tweets of the post story, until Cruz pointed it out on Twitter, and an hour later he found it was finally unblocked.

[clarice]

What kinda BS is Dorsey's excuse? really, tk. Delete it andreport it then we'll let it stand. C'mon man.

[Melinda]

Well if anyone EVEr wanted to once and for all find out what a "Faithless Elector" looks like, now's your chance and bring your own eye bleach, please. We're running low.

[Young Lurker]

Dave- i know it would never happen but how awesome would it be if she had to cast a vote for DJT

[Dave (in MA)]

clarice,

He expects people to believe that they have no ability to unblock the original Post tweet.

Riiiiiiight

[Young Lurker]

in other news i'm very stressed out

[Dave (in MA)]

Not enough Chardonnay, YL.

[MissMarple2]

AF1 possibly approaching for fly-by!

[Dave (in MA)]

Heh, that was a reply to your prior comment, but it works for either.

[Another Bob]

Thanks for that 'like' Dave. Was going to ask if anyone saw it.

[Threadkiller]

Dave, Cruz was demanding to know why the New York Post was unable to tweet the story let alone any other story. Dorsey gave an answer as to how the NY Post should go about unlocking its account. At the end of Ted’s rant Dorsey did say the link should be available to post by other people but he seemed puzzled by Ted’s screaming.

I don’t like Dorsey at all, but I also don’t see Ted’s arm waving amounting to a BOOM.

Besides Ted, is anyone else struggling to link the NY Post story?

[Another Bob]

TK, I just tweeted it. Dave just 'liked' meaning he could see it.

[Tom R]

This guy is full of MAGA.

https://twitter.com/jackposobiec/status/1321527504532885505?s=21

[sbwaters]

YL, here you go. Instant stress therapy:

Zorba the Greek dance.

[henry]

YL, range time reduces stress. :)

[JM Hanes]

From the Am Thinker article on What the polls are missing, in re all the newbie voters attending Trump rallies (on top of the amazing number of Dems):

Just as we had the famous Reagan Democrats, it looks as if this election is going to see a huge number of Trump Democrats. Those voters aren’t necessarily going to appear in traditional polling. Likewise, to the extent that almost all polling outfits, in the days before the election, focus on people who have a track record of voting, these enthusiastic newbies also aren’t getting counted.

I get at least a couple of calls a day from people who don't leave messages. I don't pick up for any unknown numbers.

[Threadkiller]

really, tk

Ooooooo... a “really”.

I am not saying that Dorsey wasn’t BSing. Cruz is not pointing out that Dorsey’s answer to why the NY Post cannot tweet is BS. Cruz, instead, conflated two things and is alleging a federal crime has been committed.

The video exchange is evidence that Cruz is grandstanding.

[Old Lurker]

YL, it occurs to me you are just about the age I was on the night Ronald Reagan won the first time. I still recall that night in vivid detail.

And you have more to lose from this point than your Mom & I did when RR won, but we knew it was a big big deal.

So I appreciate your angst.

[Threadkiller]

Thanks, AB. Besides Cruz, do we know of anyone that attempted to tweet it an hour ago and were rebuffed?

[Another Bob]

"I get at least a couple of calls a day from people who don't leave messages. I don't pick up for any unknown numbers."

Ditto here. As a possible sign of the robocallers at work, I just got a new work phone, and I'm getting double-triple the number of unknown-number-leave-no-message calls I get on my personal phone.

[Another Bob]

Oh, and that's on a new (to me) phone number.

[Dave (in MA)]

TK, Bob and I were both able to tweet the story after Cruz reported that it was now working.

Cruz was complaining that he was unable to tweet the Post story after Dorsey said it was now permissible to do so. Having not tried it before, I'll have to take Cruz' word for it. I believe him, but I don't have a bug up my ass about his citizenship.

[Threadkiller]

The vast majority of Ted’s retweets are award ceremonies because he said “who the hell do you think you are?” to Dorsey.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tedcruz

There was one tweet that screen shots the blocked link. That is interesting, the rest is snake oil.

[Another Bob]

The bigger problem with Dorsey is the Post's account is still locked.

Why doesn't someone press that loon on that point?

[JM Hanes]

In re Texas, I do worry about it. Not in this election, but I believe it has actually been trending slightly left of rock solid for awhile. It's trajectory includes ongoing urbanization, now potentially exacerbated by a growing exodus of businesses & citizens fleeing misc blue hells, whose increasing numbers are beginning to make their presence felt in ex-urbia as well.

Those folks don't turn into fighting Republicans, they just take their businesses and their prog votes and settle elsewhere. They don't connect their "caring" politics with the travesties that beset them, and they want more rules and regulations to protect their neighborhoods from the great unwashed -- people might want to raise a goat or chickens next door! or have more than 2 dogs! or who won't manicure their property! or might paint their houses in unorthodox colors! etc. etc. etc. They basically want to control everything they see from their hillside houses.

As my daughter observed, in Bozeman, MT, which you'd think would be "rugged individual" central, homeowners' associations are taking over the countryside. Their rules are more arbitrary and restrictive than constraints inside the city limits.

We should not underestimate the damage these folks can do, and we should not take Texas for granted. If we ever lose it we're screwed. It's the one state where you should not feel compelled to keep your conservative beliefs under wraps, no matter where you work! As Porchlight can affirm, it is already not that state.

[Another Bob]

That's this one TK:

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1321499884919377927?s=20 that retweeted this:

https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1321476036211757056?s=20

[Threadkiller]

Yes, AB. That is the one.

[joan]

Oh, my gosh, this is great. Even if someone else has posted it, the video should be watched over and over again -- by LIVs -- I'm still smiling!

There's no title: Mine for it is "Corn Pop Is Real"

The only Democrat campaign ad you need to see this year.

https://twitter.com/conservmillen/status/1321248418258251777

Don't miss it.

[Threadkiller]

Why doesn't someone press that loon on that point?

That is the point that Ted was pressing him on. Dorsey gave an answer that put the onus on the NY Post to fix their account from their IT end. You will notice that Ted is accusing Dorsey of lying under oath regarding that.

This is the point I was making. I posted the video above. I am going to do the rest of my chores feeling satisfied that I can hate one person(Dorsey) and dislike another(Cruz) and not have that multitasking ability of listening to both sides of a debate cost me any sleep.

[lyle]

Beat me by one minute, Joan.

But maybe I should just post it and act like you didn’t...😬

[Tom Bowler]

This is very good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Am5zsJlhPk&feature=emb_logo

[Threadkiller]

...that Ted is NOT accusing Dorsey...

[Tom Bowler]

You beat me to it, Joan! Great video!

[lyle]

What the hell:

https://notthebee.com/article/hilarious-watch-the-only-democrat-campaign-ad-you-need-to-see-this-year

😎

[Threadkiller]

but I don't have a bug up my ass about his citizenship.

I wish I didn’t scroll back to see if I missed anything.

Later.

[clarice]

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/10/28/twitter-chief-wont-allow-hunter-biden-misinformation-will-allow-holocaust-misinformation/

[joan]

lyle, we could have a contest -- Who Picks The Best Title?!!

My Cornpop Is Real should win. :)

[clarice]

Good grief the NYT questions the idea that Biden has clinched Pennsylvania:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/opinion/2020-election-pennsylvania.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

[Tom R]

The anonymous NeverTrumper outs himself.

https://twitter.com/milestaylorusa/status/1321534426287886338?s=21

[joan]

Allie Beth Stuckey created her own ad. Same topic. I could watch these all day. :)

https://mobile.twitter.com/conservmillen/status/1054527758070677504

[Jane]

Matt,

I’m home and fine! Lots more light - not much vision in my eye, but I’m done with surgery si I’m happy!

Joan, great video!

Tom, I love Joe Collins. Does he have a chance.

93 degrees here! How rude!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

allahpundit, when when right is still asshoe.

[Manuel Transmission]

Here’s a response to Mel’s earlier post about the med market from my ex-med ceo:

Everybody argues the formulary list and price. Today, insurance companies pretty much run the show. It’s a medical efficacy - economics analysis.

Remember everyone now has a Part D plan - all of them run by large insurance companies. The drug industry has a huge lobby, however, so the lists are fairly liberal and managed largely by copays and deductibles. And the generics industry is an effective price deflator when drugs go off patent.

Of course, the super high cost drugs (think hep-c for example) are pushed downward by comparing the treatment cost to an inpatient hospital stay.

Yes, it is a bargaining process with input from all competing stakeholders. Trump pushing down prices has made a difference - although not particularly legalIstic process, more of the bully pulpit. But it worked.

[JM Hanes]

Young Lurker:

Such a treat to see you posting here!

"in other news I'm very stressed out"

Then you've come to the right place! The optimistic folks here were right, last time around, when it looked even worse for Trump than it does now (assuming you're stress is election-related). It can be hard to keep your spirits up if you're surrounded by people & media telling you that Trump is going down 24/7.

Biden will need to flip several states that went Republican last time. I have a hard time believing many of the folks who voted for Trump before have found anyone to like in the Democrat party. I don't see Biden attracting a lot of new voters, either, and I doubt that anyone who liked Trump before blames him for COVID either.

In fact, I'm hoping there are enough disgruntled Democrats in places like California and New York to give Trump an actual majority win! It would be even more fun if he "unexpectedly" took another Dem stronghold, too.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

*even* when right...

[clarice]

Jane, is there a recovery period anticipated? Or is more light it?

[Neo]

It’s nice to see that polls and computers haven’t taken the random out of random events.

I recall a skit on “That was the Week that Was” of a Harvard football game that ended 20 seconds into the game when a computer declared the winner.

[Neo]

NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo just joked about a young US citizen DYING of COVID-19.

...TWICE!!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/CuomoWatch/status/1321472985463738369

[Narciso]

When your content chief rotates between administrations and campaigns well theres aproblem.

Miles dysom who cares

[Narciso]

If memory serves taylor worked for mccaul who would have been a woree choice then ray on the margins.

[JM Hanes]

Neo:

Hard to believe that Cuomo tape. Jeez.