Election Day!

We'll get through this. Probably.

Dan McLaughlin at NR has a long essay turning the Trump/Biden coin before coming down.... NO SPOILERS. His gist - Trump is even weaker on character and competence than Biden, the Democrats are terrifying on policy and Biden lacks the principles or energy to rein in the left, but we have to choose.

Her makes an interesting point about the possible value of a rebuilding year, or two, or four:

Coalitions and the Right Time to Lose

Losing to this Democratic Party would be very bad. But: We live in a two-party system, and its natural equilibrium is an alternation of power. Moreover, a rise in presidential power for one party tends to produce an immediate reaction in the rest of the system for the other. That is even truer since people stopped electing presidents with divided government in the first place. We saw this under Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama, and Trump. It is possible that Trump is the end times for Republicans, but it is unlikely. In other words: Democrats have to win sooner or later, and we will again have to live with it, and we will again get our turn after that.

I could not in good conscience vote to make that happen, but what if Trump is really the worst possible Republican president? What if Biden is, by virtue of his age, the least likely Democratic president to get reelected on the strength of incumbency? What if a 6–3 Republican-appointed Supreme Court, with the oldest Republican appointee (Clarence Thomas) being 72, and only one Democratic appointee likely to step down in the next four years, is the safest of times for the nation to go blue? What if the 2022 Senate map looks not so bad under a President Biden, but ghastly under a second Trump term?

What if it really is true that it was good that Trump won in 2016, but is also good that the next four Republican years not be his? What if a Trump win will make the worst people and ideas in the Republican Party stronger, at the expense of the best? What if a Biden loss will make the worst people and ideas in the Democratic Party stronger, at the expense of the least-bad — as seems sure to happen? What if we still have a strong case, even with a narrow Democrat majority in the Senate, for stopping Court-packing and other insanity now? What if Trump is the only thing holding together an incoherent Democratic coalition, which needs the White House before it can tear itself to ribbons over an agenda Biden never really ran on? What if that coalition would only grow otherwise, so that the 2024 election after eight years of Trump is likely to give Democrats a much wider majority and mandate?

I do not, as a rule, believe in winning by losing. But we do have to lose eventually. A good football coach knows when to punt and get the ball back in better field position. Everything good about a second Trump administration would be better under a subsequent Republican, with less risk of a truly permanent defeat for conservatism.

Bill Belichick nods. His point that a Trump win will probably bring out the worst in both parties is a good one. And what about a Biden win?

Republicans complained after 2008 and 2012 that we lost by not running a true conservative. Nominating and then winning with Trump kinda/sorta vindicated that view, since Trump mostly held onto his new-found conservative positions, especially on judges. If Trump loses in 2020, purity of message may not identified as the problem.

I think (or certainly, hope) that Biden really is the temperamental centrist he portrayed in the primaries. In the Presidential campaign he's been chasing my vote, not the vote of my kids. I think the phrase "Reagan Democrats" has chafed Old Joe for decades and he wants to read about "Biden Republicans". IF post election analysis (will exit polls mean much this cycle?) shows a lot of disaffected Republicans for Biden that ought to embolden and empower the centrist Dems who have dragged Joe this far. It might also empower something like a "Sensible Center" on the Republican side as Reps try to lure the defectors home.

That said, Biden is running on fumes and follows polls rather than principles. But if polls tell him to be a centrist he won't object. His long-time aides are undoubtedly corporatist centrists, so his chief of staff pick and other nominations will be critical. If Elizabeth Warren is nominated as Treasury Secretary all bets are off. But she won't be!

As to Congress, Pelosi was quite firm in 2019 with the message that she did not regain the Speakership because AOC primaried a safe-seat timeserver. She won due to 30 swing-seat Democrats who weren't in a position to take crazy progressive votes.

Senate Majority Leader Schumer (if Mitch can't hold on!) will face a similar dynamic. Will a Senate with 51 Democrats that includes Joe Manchin and five of his ideological siblings really vote to pack the court and bring in DC and Puerto Rico as new states? Maybe! But probably not. ("Probably"? This is a hell of a thing to be betting on, right? Yet here we are.)

Beyond that, Biden and his strategery team surely remember Bill Clinton's come-uppance in 1994 and Obama's in 2010.

Clinton lost control of the House and Senate, leading to a long six years; Obama lost the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014, leaving him with a pen and a phone. One would hope the Democratic leadership has figured out the problem and won't try for "third time lucky".

However! There is a theory that 2020 might be the last election. The analogy is to elections in Muslim states that vote in a religious party - the laws are changed and the incoming party never leaves power. The 2020 peril is that Senate and House moderates are persuaded to hero up, vote in the two new states, pack the court, amnesty and grant the vote to ten million undocumented Democrats, and never lose either the House or Senate again. I mostly think this is about as likely as the impending "Trump coup" progressives enjoy getting wound up about, but... time will tell.

Tough times ahead regardless.

Comments

[Porchlight]

It looks the minimum wage increase will pass.

Where?

[GUS]

Clarice, I think you meant WHITE SUPREMACIST brick drop zones. Right???

[Porchlight]

It's looking like landslide to me too.

[henry]

Time to cheat.

@megjonesjs

Julietta Henry, Milwaukee County Board of Elections Director, just announced at the county courthouse that the final results from the presidential election will not be done earlier than 5 AM Wednesday. @journalsentinel

https://twitter.com/megjonesjs/status/1323808910575370240?s=21

[Narciso]

In florida mech.

[Dave (in MA)]

NYT:
Florida
Very likely Trump

Georgia
Probably Trump

North Carolina
Quite likely Trump

[Narciso]

So in new york like a thuggee high priest catchers mitt is rewarded for his human sacrifices.

[Porchlight]

Thanks narciso. I beg you to add context when you can. :)

[matt - deplore me if you must]

They're going to sit back in Muhwaukee and wait to see how many votes they need to manufacture.

[Buckeye]

If VA and MN were to join a Trump victory, truly will be an ass thumping.

[MissMarple2]

My sister and I saw some young people unloading a bunch of backpacks from a pick-up truck by the restaurant we ate at today.

About 4-5 people and about 20 backpacks. Being I am overly suspicious and paranoid, I wondered if they were Antifa.

However, this is not an area prone to rioting, so if they were sent here for that purpose they will take a look around and skedaddle with whatever cash they got from Soros.

[Narciso]

In nc madison cawthorne has won his seat (he was the disabled annapolis vet)

[Porchlight]

Katie Pavlich
@KatiePavlich
·
6m
Trump winning Loudoun County, VA. For all the talk of suburbs, this is a good sign for NC and PA.

[Porchlight]

That is rather odd, MM.

[Narciso]

Hoist an ipa there rich.

[Dave (in MA)]

RIP Biden
https://twitter.com/ChubbyGeoduck/status/1323810619821301761

[Porchlight]

Buckeye, the huge and early lead for Trump in FL suggests VERY GOOD THINGS for my map. :)

[Narciso]

Missouri is for the solon that means st. Louis in overdrive right.

[henry]

Edmund Fitzgerald tonight, as the Great Lakes states will decide things.

[Another Bob]

That's funny Dave.

[Soylent Red]

Trump winning Loudoun County, VA

Clarice will attest: this is a BFD man!

Lots of rich gubmint drones and SES's out there, who are totally invested in the Derp State.Trump even keeping it close is a positive indicator.

If Trump sneaks VA off the board, Biden will be shitting in his pants. I mean more than usual.

[Momto2]

MM - Backpacks could be anything but one possibility - our local churches fill backpacks with food for school children. They take these home over the weekend when they would (apparently) otherwise not be given anything to eat. I know, I know...where are their parents? (It's mean and un-Christian to ask that!)

[Jane]

In Fl, Narc? Bummer

[BeastsEngland]

’Trump winning Loudoun County, VA’

I got a text message from there a few minutes ago... :)

[Narciso]

It might fall under 60% but slightly ahead.

[MissMarple2]

The Associated Press
@AP

BREAKING: Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican who expressed racist views and support for QAnon, has won a Georgia U.S. House seat. #APracecall #Election2020
===============
Apparently they had to smear her by association with some insults and not just report that she won.

[jimmyk]

Trump just pulled ahead in OH, for what it's worth. Up in Texas now too, as expected.

[GUS]

Mom, maybe the parents are busy rioting. Kids still gotta eat right??

[Dave (in MA)]

Lincoln Project has a sad.

Patterico replied
Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
·

I am exhausted by wishing that my fellow citizens would just be decent and rational.
Patterico@Patterico
·

"Cry more, lib"

[clarice]

Fox is rethinking Virginia in the presidential race. (as they should.)

[MissMarple2]

clarice,

Fox should rethink a lot of things, like going back to Ailes' vision of how a news network should run.

[Narciso]

I would think so, if you won lowdem thats the thermal exhaust port.

[henry]

Gus & neighbors bringing it! 66% counted

@mattbatzel

Waukesha County starting to report for WI. Trump leading with 65.5%. He won the county with 61.6% in 2016. #wiright #maga

https://twitter.com/mattbatzel/status/1323815659109785602?s=21

[Another Bob]

I'm staying away from TV coverage of results.

I have Nick Stellino on the teevee.

Florida not called yet?

[Dave (in MA)]

Randy Barnett@RandyEBarnett
·

Jake Tapper just now on @cnn: “a Biden blow out was always a pipe dream.”

[clarice]

PAULA BOLYARD | NOV 03, 2020 9:46 PM EST
According to the Ohio Secretary of State website, Trump is leading in Ohio by about 18,000 votes.

Whoever ends up on top tonight, we likely won't get an official result for several days because there are currently 246,198 outstanding absentee and provisional ballots -- enough to sway the outcome for either candidate.

Edit: @Megan, I'm here to serve.

[Captain Hate]

The Expert and Yellow Loon never tire of making maudlin spectacles of themselves on an open platform.

[MissMarple2]

Bill Kole
@billkole
·
1h
BREAKING from @AP: In an upset, Republican Barbara Ann Fenton-Fung has ousted Rhode Island's Democratic House speaker, Nicholas Mattiello. #ripolitics

[Narciso]

Mucarsel kolomoiskys gun moll dissed cuban americans on a very respectable latin broadcaster on sunday.

[clarice]

Betting markets now shifting to a Trump win. Jimmy K is going to be very rich.

[Dave (in MA)]

MeToo Halperin is talking about how Hillary was a better candidate than Joe.

[Momto2]

NC Senator Thom Tillis has closed the gap to 20,000 votes with 81 percent reporting. If he wins GOP likely retains Senate control.

[Narciso]

The naval war college must be so proud.

[clarice]

DDHQ and Fox have President Trump gaining or winning in Ohio

[MissMarple2]

clarice.

Think how much money Nigel Farage will make!

[Melinda]

Bannon's War Room, Live:

https://youtu.be/ZVWvZFWBE9Y

[Porchlight]

–Realamerican1776 1 point 5 minutes ago +1 / -0

Pennsylvania is favored to go to Trump according to betting markets. (Along with Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina)

[jimmyk]

Clarice, I took the long odds on Trump winning the popular vote. That isn't looking so likely, but we'll see. He's up now, but CA looms large.

[Porchlight]

Florida not called yet?

FL is a done deal. Once again MSM is gaslighting.

[Porchlight]

Reading CNN has walked back its VA call for Biden.

[Porchlight]

jimmyk, that is why MSM is gaslighting. To get CA R voters to leave the line. As always.

[Porchlight]

AZ too, not just CA voters.

[jimmyk]

Pretty sure Tillis will win. NYT projections suggests remaining votes are from R counties.

[MissMarple2]

Tim Carney
@TPCarney
·
1m
Do you have MSNBC on mute? If so, you'll notice, as my wife just did, that Rachel Maddow's smile is gone.

[Dave (in MA)]

Too bad Iggy isn't around. NewsMax has the best cleavage.

[Ralph L]

he was the disabled annapolis vet
Wiki says he was only nominated to USNA, then had accident. His entry reads like it was written by his opponent.

[Captain Hate]

Trump up by 105,000 in Ohio

[Momto2]

GOPer Ronny Jackson, who served as Trump's doctor wins TX 13th Congressional district.

[Another Bob]

.@henryolsenEPPC at WaPo:

"I never like being wrong professionally, but it's clear Biden won't win the nat'l vote by anything like what every major poll's crosstabs implied. That's a polling error of mammoth proportions--the industry will have a lot of serious thinking to do."

[Melinda]

Miss Lindsay has been called a win.

[Momto2]

25-year-old Republican Madison Cawthorn becomes the youngest member of Congress in N.C’s 11th Congressional District.

[Davod]

Graham has been reelected. Wallace is on Fox saying Graham winning was never in doubt (BS).

[BeastsEngland]

What odds did you get for the popular vote bet, jimmyk - more than 10:1?

[Gentlejim]

MM,
Vigo county still hasn’t reported.

[JM Hanes]

Any news on Klasik (sp?) in Baltimore?

So pleased to hear that John James appears to be doing well in his race, at least for the moment.

[Barbara]

Bongino on NC, Ohio, Florida and Michigan.

https://parler.com/post/56a093d11a2e41b69c30166ecffb1efd

[Porchlight]

That is true. Graham winning was never in doubt.

None of it was ever in doubt.

[henry]

@politics_polls

BREAKING Thom Tillis takes the lead in #NCsen:

Tillis 2,401,804 47.98%
Cunningham 2,391,033 47.77%

5,005,803 votes counted. Estimated >95% in

Via @DecisionDeskHQ

[Porchlight]

MAGAyar 1 point 2 minutes ago +1 / -0

DUUUUDE 47 TRUMP 49 BIDEN IN ILLINOIS OH MY GOD PLEASE

[Porchlight]

PA starting to flip to Trump

[Soylent Red]

SHiiiiiiiiit...

Warner losing substantially here in VA.

Fuck that guy in particular. Next up will be Northam.

[Melinda]

Momto2.

I think I want to be the first donor to his re-election campaign....

[jimmyk]

No, Beasts, 5:1. He's up by 1.5 million now.

[Momto2]

DonFlag of United States
@Phil4gop26
Fox News can now project we lost most of our viewers tonight!

[henry]

NEW

THREAD

[Narciso]

Take that john tester.

[Porchlight]

DAMN WHY DIDN"T I BET

[peter]

https://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2020/11/interesting-2016-vibe-developing.html#comments

[cathyf]

And is why Bannon will be on the outside.

Actually the thing I found pretty striking with the recent Bannon commentary on Hunter's laptop is that he's looking pretty well cleaned-up. Not the homeless crazy-person vibe anymore.

[anonamom]

MM - Backpacks could be anything but one possibility - our local churches fill backpacks with food for school children. They take these home over the weekend when they would (apparently) otherwise not be given anything to eat.

These children need to being orphanages, where they will have structure, nourishment, and a roof over their heads.

It is insane for the state to support them in situations where the adults in their lives are so utterly unreliable and inept.

[GUS]

Hey Joke Crapper, Biden and Pipe in the same SENTENCE???

[Abadman]

The frowns are starting on msm shows

[Barbara]

Steve Bannon's War Room

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=ZVWvZFWBE9Y

[Barbara]

I can't wait to hear Frank Luntz's explanation for these results. Well, actually I can, but it should be amusing.

[clarice]

See new Tweets
Tweet

Sean Spicer
@seanspicer
·
34m
At 7:01pm - one minute after polls closed in Virginia
@AP_Politics
called the race for Senator
@MarkWarner
- 4 hours later with 2518 of 2585 precincts in
@gop
challenger
@gadeforvirginia
is leading 51.18% to 48.72% #VaElections2020 #Election2020 #ElectionDay

[clarice]

strange happenings with Az tally and MSM reports:https://cdn.townhall.com/trash/liveblog/2020-11/jg.png

[clarice]

Mores strange MSM accounts of AZ:https://cdn.townhall.com/trash/liveblog/2020-11/az3.png

[clarice]

https://cdn.townhall.com/trash/liveblog/2020-11/pa.png
PA firming up above the margin of fraud

[clarice]

gov of Az--haven't even counted the early votes and not all of the in person votes have been reported:https://twitter.com/dougducey/status/1323851735408930822

[Tom R]

Stuff like this doesn’t look fishy at all.

https://thedonald.win/p/11Pp6ZItXz/138000-votes-and-not-a-single-on/c/

[clarice]

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/we_already_know_who_lost_the_election_msm_pollsters.html

[clarice]

where is everyone?

[clarice]

Brit Hume
@brithume
·
Nov 2
It took 37 days to settle 20 years ago. But it proved the U.S. has systems and institutions in place to settle such election disputes. And, in the end, they go it right.

[clarice]

Take pity on the rioters--standing around with no notion what to do.