Interesting 2016 Vibe Developing

The Biden Blowout seems to be off the menu.

The NY Times is NOT doing their National Needle, which freaked out Democrats in 2016 as it swung inexorably from a 90% chance for Hillary to a 100% chance for Trump. This year there are too many problems due to huge absentee voting.

However, they have needles for three key states where the absentee voting can be counted and analyzed: FL, GA, and NC.

If Trump sweeps, we're probably in for a long couple of days. If Biden picks up one or two, Trump's path to victory gets very narrow.

Over the last couple of hours the odds of a Trump sweep have risen from 40% to 80%. VERY 2016 vibe.

And:

 

Comments

[henry]

Red Tsunami en route. Enjoy your low taxes, TM. :)

[Thomas Collins]

At this point, it's down to the donkey fraud machine and somehow turn electors machine.

[Narciso]

The swung has choked itself. Yes heather nauert is a welcome change of page

[clarice]

BRYAN PRESTON | NOV 03, 2020 10:03 PM EST
Trump now has a 5-point lead in Texas. That's pretty solid, it might change a point either way by the end of the night.

Trump, a former NY liberal, has been very popular in rural and West Texas. His support in the red areas of Texas has always been rock solid. Drive out in any direction (but south) from Austin and you'd see Trump signs all along the road, large hay bale Trump signs, the works. Texas was never really in doubt.

A better belweather of the state is Cornyn's senate race. He's winning easily over the Democrats' flavor of the month by about 9 points at the moment. Republicans do have some growing issues in the cities and the counties of suburbia that ring around the cities. They'll have to reclaim those to shore up their long-term fortunes in Texas. But 2020 was never going to be much of a fight.

[clarice]

Donna Shalala lost--all's right with the world.

[Porchlight]

Told ya so TM :)

Landslide

[clarice]

I'm sure it's a wild coincidence, but right now the yuan is tanking.

[Captain Hate]

Those Alabamians were legit ashamed to have a democrat in the senate. They knew the other SEC states were making fun of them.
Posted by: Barron's Head in the Clouds at November 03, 2020 09:59 PM (ojwvu

Yes. It's been an embarrassing time for us. But we kicked Jones in the nuts tonight. Fuck that guy in particular.
Posted by: AlaBAMA at November 03, 2020 10:01 PM (3aLWR)

For the record Joe Biden has molested more children then Roy Moore did.
Posted by: 18-1 at November 03, 2020 10:01 PM (qlFIA)

[henry]

Tsunami may be an understatement.

@ericbottafp

Town of Glenmore in hotly contested SD 30 (Green Bay) in Wisconsin went from 351-218 GOP-Dem in 2016 to 471-189. Wow.

[Narciso]

Without a doubt maria salazar is a person of great integrity, why she has fpund it difficult to stay employed in journalism.
And kolomoiskys gun moll mucarsel goes dowm as well.

[JM Hanes]

Aha, the three "needle states" revealed!

[Narciso]

Richard jewell say 'bless your heart' through the ether

[henry]

@charliekirk11

CNN is beginning to panic. Hold the line. We're nowhere near done tonight.

[Narciso]

That jackalope doug jones arrested jewell and let rudolph escape

[Thomas Collins]

I guess the Dems 100 percent showing in Dixville Notch isn't going to hold up.

[Melinda]

clarice-

Be very, very careful on Yuan stuff, they have 4 overseas currencies....It's moving, but may be totally tied up with the Ant financial IPO failure announced earlier. No way to tell, at least I'm not going to try.

[clarice]

RYAN PRESTON | NOV 03, 2020 10:09 PM EST
Well this is interesting. In Florida-26 Republicans picked off a Dem incumbent. Carlos Gimenez (R) knocked off Debbie Murcasel-Powell (D), who has to have the most posh name of any pol on the scene this year.

Anyway, Trump's GOP remains the worst racist party ever, sending a black conservative and now a Latino conservative to the House, both from Florida.

“Today was a rejection of extremism, today was a rejection of partisanship and today was a rejection of socialism,” said Gimenez. “This country needs to start to work together because it has threats both inside and outside.”

He added, “I’m going to work with Congress to bring solutions, to bring results.”

[BeastsEngland]

jimmyk - I don’t model the popular vote, but extrapolating from my state runs and guesstimating an enthusiasm factor, I would give him a fifteen percent chance of taking the PV. That’s in the ballpark of your odds.

[Jane]

We need PA!

[jimmyk]

Wow, predictit.org now has Trump at $0.73! He started the night at $0.41.

[Dave (in MA)]

NYT must be really confident in their prognostications.

[Narciso]

That was the seat that curbelo held the one who came up with the bogus immigration enforcement plan

[mike in houston]

Someone told me there would be no math! :)

Report: Tallying Votes Could Take Weeks Thanks To Common Core Counting Method

https://babylonbee.com/news/report-tallying-votes-could-take-weeks-thanks-to-common-core-counting-method

[jimmyk]

Beasts, I just wanted a long odds bet. The 60-40 on the EV wasn't exciting enough, especially after the fees. This at least gave me a shot at a big payoff for a modest bet.

[Narciso]

That heaven no division is involved thats a horror in itself.

[MissMarple2]

Jack Posobiec VOTE
Flag of United States
@JackPosobiec
:
Just heard from one of PA’s top strategists. “There’s been 2 hour lines everywhere in North Bucks all day. It’s like a Trump rally.”

[Narciso]

Judge rheinhold natch won.

[Thomas Collins]

That would be amazing if Trump took RI, Dave (in MA).

[clarice]

VICTORIA TAFT | NOV 03, 2020 10:14 PM EST
Only 28'% of the vote in Pennsylvania with Trump with large lead but it's too early.

Yes, indeed, jimmyk is buying drinks for the house tomorrow, XOXO

[Narciso]

You send them federal express.

[MissMarple2]

Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
·
1h
Nevada get in line and vote now. #nv #nevada

[Porchlight]

Hahaha clarice

[Captain Hate]

Btw, I'd say Dave in FLA is looking pretty smart right now.

[Narciso]

Yes he deserves his pudding cup.

[Melinda]

Nasdaq futures limit up (7%).

Pick yer poison, people. Heheheh.

[MissMarple2]

Trish Regan
@trish_regan
·
24m
How upset will the mainstream media be when Trump wins?

#trishintel

[Melinda]

Stolen:

"If CA goes red, liberals will want to deport Mexicans."

[Thomas Collins]

Bay State isn't going to help you with PV, jimmyk.

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/massachusetts/

[MissMarple2]

LifeNews.com
@LifeNewsHQ
·
32m
BREAKING: Donald Trump is now favorite to win the US Presidential Election according to betting markets worldwide.

[Porchlight]

I think VA could actually go Trump here.

[BeastsEngland]

That’s a decent bet, jimmyk! Especially considering your 2016 windfall and subsequent jet purchase... :)

[Captain Hate]

Trump up 300,000 in Ohio. As predicted.

[Porchlight]

Yep Cap'n.

[anonamom]

Donna Shalala lost

finally--that woman is ancient!

[Captain Hate]

Virginia is the biggest surprise to me tonight, even if Biden narrowly wins.

[MissMarple2]

Tomi Lahren
@TomiLahren
·
28m
Shock, the media underestimated @realDonaldTrump AGAIN! Why? Because they don’t understand Americans outside of California and NY.

[Narciso]

You know they might have done better if they hadnt aimed straight for the rocks.

[BeastsEngland]

I hear there’s more on the menu tonight than pudding cups at Ace’s place!! The morons may spontaneously combust. 😎

[Narciso]

As for arizona maybe mexico can take it back.

[Porchlight]

AZ is fine.

[Narciso]

Their leadership is pretty lousy though.

[clarice]

If that's the case CH--the outstanding ballots make no difference and they can call Ohio noe.

[Ralph L]

Enjoy your low taxes, TM.

But he won't get his SALT back.

[anonamom]

Like, you disagree w NBC Porch??? IRT AZ.
I would love for McShally to beat Kelly.

[Porchlight]

I didn't share my map but I have Trump holding all 2016 states and flipping VA, MN, NV, CO, NM, MN, NH.

[BeastsEngland]

Where’s Momto2? The Loveliest Village is headed to DC!!

[Melinda]

+3.62% on Nasdaq futures, back off pegged high.

[Porchlight]

Here

[MissMarple2]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/523883-cornyn-beats-back-democratic-challenge-in-texas#.X6IfeMHiXKU.twitter

[Barbara]

Cheers for Dave in Florida, Captain!🍸🍻🍷

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Will War Eagles TP the tree in Toomer's Corner?

[Thomas Collins]

Anyone check out Insty? It reports that Ms. 1619 is having a hissy fit about Florida.

[clarice]

Va update (warner's losing, Trump ahead)https://cdn.townhall.com/trash/liveblog/2020-11/va7.png

[Porchlight]

Dave in Fla nice job!

[Another Bob]

Not to be too much of a wet blanket, but has all the early vote been counted?

[JM Hanes]

Kimberly Klacik is running in Maryland's Congressional District #7. No results as yet reported on the Maryland Board of Elections site.

[Porchlight]

Yes I disagree with NBC. :)

[Narciso]

Yes indeed

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConceptualJames/status/1323795346468884480

Warner was schumers minder on the intel committee

[Porchlight]

Networks pulling VA call:

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/03/networks-forced-to-pull-biden-projection-in-virginia-after-race-becomes-too-close-to-call/

[Narciso]

That initial number 66% was so at odds with the call.

[Captain Hate]

It's down to 230,000 now clarice but I'm still confident.

[BeastsEngland]

Porch: my best case model return had your map above plus Oregon for 360 electoral votes. Not my official prediction, of course, but it doesn’t seem so outrageous at the moment. :)

[Momto2]

I'm here and loving it, BOE!!! He's a great guy.

[Melinda]

shhhhh, Porch,

IL might be on the menu....

[Momto2]

Trump wins Utah - NBC.

[Porchlight]

FL-27 flip to Rs, per Scott Presler

That's in addition to FL-26.

[bubarooni]

RCP no longer has a blue check mark next to Virginia?

[GUS]

Poooooooter boy has the sads.

[MissMarple2]

David Smiley
@NewsbySmiley
·
1h
Adjectives being used by Democrats tonight about what's happening in Miami-Dade: "shellacked"... "f*cked" ... "so bad" ... "Democratic debacle"... and, once again, "f*cked"

[Porchlight]

I saw earlier that it's still close, Melinda. Shhhh :)

[Melinda]

Cenk ain't happy.

[Captain Hate]

Want a good laugh?

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1323814956035411968

[Narciso]

Has a taken a bite out of someone.

[Melinda]

Live Cenk: https://youtu.be/64GvIfUd9Zo

[This is almost as good as 2016.}

[Porchlight]

Holy shit that FL-27 is Shalala!

[henry]

Own goal by BLM.

@danodonnellshow

President Trump won Kenosha County by 200 votes in 2016. He's currently leading by 12,000 votes with 41 percent of precincts reporting. Kenosha was the site of Black Lives Matter riots in August.

[Narciso]

Like a djinn rising from the lebanese sands.

[Narciso]

Ros lehtinen held that seat for 30 years.

[Momto2]

RESULT: President Donald Trump is the projected winner of Kansas, with 6 Electoral Votes. -
@DecisionDeskHQ.

[JM Hanes]

To think I was feeling so silly for wondering about Virginia, when it got called for Biden right out of the starting gate.

Can we consider it truly in play? If so, it means that the pollsters et al still do not understand who and where Trump's voters are, and that they're still extrapolating their projections from outdated voter profiles and assumptions.

[Thomas Collins]

Whoops! Cenk is accusing Latinos of upholding white supremacy. The TDS meltdown could be worse this year than in 2016.

[anonamom]

NBC does not share porch's optimism.
Like, they declared NH for Trump already.

I am completely on board with porch being correct.

[GUS]

Cenk has a fat head. He looks like he pissed his pants.

[Melinda]

TC-
Playing it live in my ear...

[Narciso]

This is what madness looks like

http://patterico.com/2020/11/03/election-predictions-play-at-your-own-risk/#comment-2457022

[MissMarple2]

My daughter has gloomily gone to bed.

Could be a reflection of what she's seeing on the outlets she's watching.

[Ralph L]

Dick Morris says Trump wins WI and PA. It's over!
/s

[anonamom]

Union County bringing it in for Trump!!!

[anonamom]

in NC. Sorry. Exurb of Charlotte, which had gone totally D.

[Melinda]

Notice the MSM change of tactics

Every other election, "Precincts Reporting" percentages were given.

This time it's "% of potential Votes"

I wonder why......