The "Big One" - A Disgrace From Texas

Trump declares it to be "The Big One"! Here is the controversial Supreme Court filing with the ludicrous statistical analysis included. A sampling:

Chances of Biden winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin independently after [Trump's]

early lead is less than one in a quadrillion:

 

Uh huh. So basically, a Biden comeback was less likely than an asteroid strike even though plenty of folks had warned about Blue Mirages and Red Mirages before Election night. Everybody, with the apparent exception of this analyst (Prof. Cicchetti) understood that in most states Democrats were the bigger users of absentee ballots. Consequently, in the states that counted absentee ballots as they came in before the election, Biden would stat election night with a big lead into which Trump would gnaw as the night wore on. In states that set absentee ballots aside and counted them after the polls were closed, that would reverse - an early Trump lead would shrink and maybe reverse.

 

The "one in a quadrillion" analysis rests on the premise that the late-counted absentee votes were drawn from the same pool as the initial votes. If Trump got 52% of the first 90% of votes but then got less than 32% of the remainder, he'd lose. Unlikely? INCREDIBLY unlikely IF all the votes are coming from the same pool. HIGHLY likely if the late votes were widely understood to be from a county or process (eg, absentee) that tilted to Biden.

 

As a bonus contribution to our understanding of politics the professor explained that Biden backers of 2020 were behaving the same as Hillary backer in 2016. If you think an election is simply a random draw from the same people with the same partisan tilt from one election to the next, this is an incredibly unlikely result (Hmm, campaigns - how do they work?). In reality, what is incredibly unlikely is that the Supreme Court will even begin to take this seriously. NO, they have not taken up the case yet.

 

Lest you doubt, a snippet.

 

 

 

This filing is a disgrace. The state AGs hopping on board know this is a loser but they evidently see personal political upside in staying on the same page with Trump and his ardent followers.

Comments

[MissMarple2]

Brought over from end of last thread:

My son just called and had to take a call but will call back.

So far it looks like the guy who hit him didn't have insurance. The attorney who my sister-in-law recommended can only find an expired policy and the address he gave the police looks to have little in assets (my son said it was right in the middle of "meth-opolis".)

Also, they are waiting on the surgery for a bit. Hoping he doesn't need it as everyone who has had that type of surgery that he knows seems not to have gotten better but only worse. Won't know on that until some time in January.

[Neo]

Isn’t it time for Electoral Justice ?

[Barbara]

Willowed

The Supreme Court orders states to respond to the Texas lawsuit by tomorrow afternoon.
Jay Sekulow YouTube

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fhVRkTWAGkA

[Jim Eagle]

I see that TM is a statistical analyst par non! As an enigneer I was told many times by my profs that statistics were constucted mathematical lies.

If anyone outside the NYC/NJ/CT bubble believes TM's twisted logic then you need to avoid buying lottery tickets.

[long time lurker]

MissMarple2

(note for a few posts a couple of months ago I was posting under dd since that is what yahoo assigned me. Finally registered an account).

Does he have uninsured or underinsured coverage on his policy (you can find this on his declaration page). This will provide some coverage, but varies by state. His agent should be able to help him. If not, I work in the P&C insurance business and can provide some basic info. A lot will depend on what state he is in and what coverage levels he selected.

[Narciso]

A differential in philadelphia milwaukee detroit philadelphia atlanta and tucson no where else?

[James D.]

I'm not going to comment on our host's thoughts, because there's no point, and if he's reading our comments, no way to reach him because, as Scott Adams put it, he's clearly watching a different movie than the rest of us are.

All I'll say, again, is that if things go the way he's rotting for, I hope he enjoys all the economic damage, social unrest, governmental abuse of power, increased censorship and attacks on white, upper-middle class folks like him as racist scum, and whatever pointless foreign wars Biden will blunder us into. And since he is cheerleading for all that, I hope he and his family personally get to benefit from each and every one of those things, up close and personally.

[Jim Eagle]

I am sitting outside at our bistro table on our second floor terrace looking out over our 18th green to a royal blue ocean with a lone Mayport shrimper in the background. Now there are two.

Just an incredible evening and only about 55F, no wind. Not a cloud in the sky an a mere zephyr of a breeze. sbw, narciso and catsmeat know it.

[Jane]

Marlene,

I answered you on the last thread.

TM, do you think there was no cheating? Apparently over 50% of the country thinks the election was stolen, including 30% of democrats and 80% of republicans. Do you disagree?

[henry]

The statistics are a red herring. Courts / executives changing the rules midstream are fatal to a Constitutional republic. Are we a nation of laws? Or edicts by tyrants? SC will let us know.

[MissMarple2]

long time lurker,

Thanks for the information. He was not in his personal vehicle, but a company truck from the place he works for. Part of this will fall under workman's comp, but of course all companies are arguing with the state and who covers what and how much (workman's comp coverage, the company's insurance company, his wife's insurance company (for medical) etc.

[Marlene]

Jack, we've had a clear blue sky, sunny day here. Very chilly. I've been expecting snow flurries all day. :)

[Kathryn Anne]

I love love love, The Americans!
Watched every episode.
Great ending!
The two lead actors are a couple in real life.
Always liked Keri Russell since her “Felicity” days.
Wanted her to end up with Noel.
Bela1:
Always great to hear from you.
Sorry about your Coronavirus illness.
Have a wonderful ful Christmas!
Welcome Len and carolinLondon!
All AT articles have been excellent!
Love that the one county in Georgia won’t certify results.
Texas lawsuit a real ray of hope.
Also the Antrim machine investigation
Still nothing from Arizona and zMaricopa county.
InnNevada :
Are the going to count the dead people and the people who don’t live in the state?

[henry]

@charliekirk11

Nancy Pelosi knew that Eric Swalwell was compromised by a Chinese Communist Party spy and she still gave him a spot on the House Intelligence Committee.

America deserves to know why she allowed that.

[Tom R]

I'm not going to comment on our host's thoughts, because there's no point, and if he's reading our comments, no way to reach him because, as Scott Adams put it, he's clearly watching a different movie than the rest of us are.

I will. He is a fucking idiot.

Biden was expected to have around a 2:1 or 3:1 advantage over Trump in the mail in ballots. That was well known long before Election Day. What anyone with an IQ higher than Forrest Gump should be able to figure out is that when Biden got a 100k+ vote boost all at one time as he did in several of the battleground states than that is extremely fishy and a clear sign of election fraud.

[henry]

He gets punished just as hard as Charlie Rangel.

@wsj

Hunter Biden, the son of President-elect Joe Biden, said that his taxes are under investigation by the U.S. attorney's office

[Jane]

MM,

His first remedy is WC. And his employer has probably activated it. Next is, as long time lurker said “Un insurance”.. his own car’s uninsurance may also kick in. It all depends on state laws. At some point he will probably need a lawyer who understands coverage laws in your state, but there is no rush. No one can take anything away in the meantime.

[Kathryn Anne]

Henry:
The level of corruption of Pelosi and Sealwrll and so many democrats is appalling.
Fox Business is covering the Swalwell
story. Typically Swalwell blames President Trump.

[Kathryn Anne]

Henry;
Biden won’t even pay his baby mama to take care of his son let alone pay taxes on all those millions he received from China and the Ukraine and Moscow,

[Jim Eagle]

I didn't know you had to pay taxes on Chinese bribes. Evidently Hunter didn't either:)

[peter]

It's unusual for a blog host to be its biggest troll but anything's possible the v days

[lyle]

Or Al Sharpton...

[Youneedtogotoo]

TM: So basically, a Biden comeback was less likely than an asteroid strike even though plenty of folks had warned about Blue Mirages and Red Mirages before Election night.

Steve Lomez: "[Biden's comeback] does in fact defy easy explanation. The midwit response will be something like 'Well, we always knew mail-ins would be counted late and there’d be a Red Mirage… where Trump appears to be winning etc.' But that’s not how live-betting markets work... Live betting markets would’ve accounted for the likelihood of a comeback. They didn’t on election night... Doesn’t mean that a 15% underdog can’t ever come back, but it takes something unexpected to happen. Still waiting to hear what the unexpected event was—other than, ya know, stopping the counting and then finding a bunch of 'fortuitous' ballots."

[peter]

These

[Melinda]

Sean Davis
@seanmdav
Schiff Refuses To Disclose Why He Withheld Details Of Swalwell's Relationship With A Chinese Spy From Intel Committee thefederalist.com/2020/12/09/sch…

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1336793611757899777

[peter]

Jane, it's his employer's vehicle

[Kathryn Anne]

MM;
Agree with Clarice.
You can stay with your son and help out if that is possible.

[Marlene]

Jane, no! I think the plant was stressed from moving from your lanai back to our lanai. Plants have feelings! :) I blame the cold weather!

[Jim Eagle]

Marlene,

Are you in Naples?

Here it is spectular but chilly. Not a cloud in the sky or on the sea's horizon. We are getting that magical Florida fuschia sunset on the ocean. One of those to die for days but in a blanket, outside.

[Narciso]

Furthermore if the same system is operating in thr runoffs, katie bar the door. Like obama 3.0 on steroid.

[Marlene]

Jack, we're in Venice.

[Youneedtogotoo]

TM: Everybody, with the apparent exception of this analyst (Prof. Cicchetti) understood that in most states Democrats were the bigger users of absentee ballots.

According to NBC News, more Republicans than Democrats requested mail-in ballots in both Michigan and Wisconsin. Wouldn't you expect this be reflected in the actual results?

[Captain Hate]

If anyone outside the NYC/NJ/CT bubble believes TM's twisted logic then you need to avoid buying lottery tickets.

Everyone should avoid buying lottery tickets.

[Melinda]

Tricia Flanagan (R-NJ) For U.S. Senate
@NewDayForNJ
BREAKING—

Democrat U.S. House Rep Eric Swalwell @RepSwalwell is removed from House Intel Committee after Chinese spy link is found

Tricia Flanagan (R-NJ) For U.S. Senate @NewDayForNJ
Eric Swalwell, who Democrats considered as their Pres nominee, sits on House Intel Committee where America’s most important securities are discussed, debated & decided. We now find out he was involved in this China spying plot.

If that isn’t the definition of treason, what is? twitter.com/GOPLeader/stat…

twitter.com/NewDayForNJ/status/133666699260

https://twitter.com/NewDayForNJ/status/1336775904148811780

[Jim Eagle]

Venice!

Captain Eric goes there a lot for some dive that has the best seafood tacos in the world. I need to ask him where it is an pass on to you.

If you and hubby still want to go out for a trophy fish let me know. He is still working charters.

[Porchlight]

So basically, a Biden comeback was less likely than an asteroid strike even though plenty of folks had warned about Blue Mirages and Red Mirages before Election night.

Oh, so because the Biden-friendly media "warned" about this ahead of time that makes it a True Prediction and not a canned explanation of a pre-planned steal?

TM, could you address all the other one-in-a-quadrillion occurrences, such as Trump winning all but two bellwether counties by an average of 15 points, yet losing the EC?

Could you explain how Biden won 212 fewer counties than Obama in 2012, yet bested Obama's 2012 vote total by 13 million votes?

How about how Biden failed to flip back a SINGLE ONE of the 31 Iowa counties that Trump flipped from Obama in 2016?

No ideas?

[MissMarple2]

Melinda,

With the death penalty for treason hanging over him, I bet Swalwell cracks and spills the beans on all he knows in a New York minute.

[Melinda]

MaReQ⭐⭐⭐
@Mareq16
PF Reports

A shit ton of refuelers flying over our heads right now, never saw 37 over CONUS at one time. That means there's another shit ton of fighters/bombers sucking fuel from them, hard to say how many, but a KC-135 can refuel about 20 F-16s

https://twitter.com/Mareq16/status/1336771980691955714

Including one looping over the F-16 crash site from yesterday.

[Kathryn Anne]

We need new people in Congress.
The democrats are the gang that couldn’t shoot straight.
Schiff’s needs to be placed in the well of the House and forced to explain how this spy entered our congressional enclave and attached herself to a fool like Swalwell.

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

The only real analysis we have on mail in ballots prior to the 2020 fiasco was from the Carter/Baker commission from 2000.

In that, they said that mail in ballots were subject to fraud and had to be handled carefully.

Yet, Twitter and Facebook posted LIES to every page stating that voting by mail was safe and secure.

Even though that is counter to what we know.

That's the world in which we live in. And people are dumb enough to go along with it.

[Melinda]

Catherine Herridge
@CBS_Herridge
#HunterBiden “tax affairs” under investigation by US attorney Delaware READ: Biden/Harris transition team @CBSNews

https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1336789414924718080

[Buckeye]

When the Chinese “dignitaries” were pouring $1500/bottle Moutai down my throat, should I have counted it as income??

Don’t want to get in trouble with the IRS like Hunter:)

[Jane]

Peter,

In some states you can stack uninsrance.

[Jane]

Mel,

I’d bet a lot of money that Schiff is owned by China.

[Jane]

Boy you need Togo, that’s interesting about the ballot requests. It just keeps getting bigger and bigger.

[Jane]

They were so sure they would get away with all this stuff. It’s not over but a lot is coming out. Mr. President! Release everything!

[Narciso]

Rush has pointed out that 2005 report.

[Kathryn Anne]

Biden wants to win it as does Jill to keep Hunter’s rear end out of jail.

[Another Bob]

“ With the death penalty for treason hanging over him, I bet Swalwell cracks and spills the beans on all he knows in a New York minute.”

I bet not, MM. Starting with a treason charge.

[Kathryn Anne]

Jane:
I want them all exposed.
Swalwell accused the President of being a Russian asset 3 times in 2029.
Karma is raining down on Swalwell now.
Next , I want them to nail Schiff’s.
He is overdue for some real life consequences,

[Tom R]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/01/trump-needs-election-day-vote-biden-democrats-dominate-early-voting/6085797002/

Trump's yearlong disparagement of mail-in voting turned off many of his voters to absentee ballots. Democrats embraced the method, casting nearly double the mail-in ballots of Republican voters nationwide.

This is where I came up with Biden having a 2:1 advantage over Trump in mail-in votes. When those mail in votes got counted the distribution should have been around 66-33 or 60-40 in Biden's favor. Instead Biden got over 95% of the votes. Clear and obvious sign of election fraud except to people like TM.

[lyle]

$1500/bottle Moutai

Is that the famous chink First Growth from Pauillac Peking? 😬

[Kathryn Anne]

S/b 2019.
Agree AB
Treason will not be a charge against Swalwell.

[Another Bob]

“ $1500/bottle Moutai”

Was it worth drinking?

I for sure was drinking the cheap stuff and I found it a complete waste of time.

[Narciso]

So if its been an open and shut case (thought they never found the perp) why does the bureau still have seth richs laptop.

[Narciso]

Hmm:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/12/huge-4-years-stonewalling-corrupt-fbi-finally-admits-holding-seth-richs-laptop/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=PostSideSharingButtons&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons

[Narciso]

Surprise:

https://www.westernjournal.com/officials-find-12-uncounted-ballots-race-gop-leads-guessed-12-votes/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=PostSideSharingButtons&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons&fbclid=IwAR1UU2AJrJLxdJEJbMyQ1F8JzfQ745ZqEaiwSG4UobJlOJ16eGe92KA2jFc

[MissMarple2]

AB,

Pfft. Your opinion has been weighed and found wanting.

[Another Bob]

(shrugs)

[MissMarple2]

Maryrose,

Of course he won't be charged with treason, but he is too stupid to know that.

He could be charged with failing to register as a foreign agent, campaign finance violations of several sorts, accepting bribes, etc. etc.

[Barbara]

Biden, both pater et fils, Schiff, Swalwell, Pelosi and who knows how many others. My guess is that the President has been gathering this information for use at the appropriate time. It's now or never.

[MissMarple2]

Jack,

Just went out and plugged in the Christmas lights. The Mexican household across the street with a VAST collection of lawn ornaments has embraced the Christmas light tradition as well, and somehow found a plastic light-up Santa identical to the one my daughter insisted we put up.

She bought it because somebody she knew as a kid had one and to her it is the ne' plus ultra in Christmas outdoor decor. LOL!

We had sunshine today but with sundown the temp has already dropped to 34. Your evening sounds lovely!

[henry]

@cnbcnow

BREAKING: SpaceX uncrewed prototype Starship rocket SN8 explodes on impact after high-altitude test flight

[Barbara]

Does anyone remember using stencils and Gasswax to make Christmas decorations on the windows?

[MissMarple2]

Barbara,

I sure do! Do they even make Glasswax anymore?

[Buckeye]

AB and Lyle

I don’t think the rice paddies have squat to do with it, as it is fortified and then aged.

After about 10 shots, I am sure you lose all sense of taste anyway:)

The cheap shit that a “regular guy” drinks is kinda like a cross between turpentine and paint thinner as MT noted one time.

[henry]

Apparently low fuel pressure had the Starship return from 40,000 feet a bit fast. Rest of test went well.

[James D.]

Apparently low fuel pressure had the Starship return from 40,000 feet a bit fast.

I believe the term is “undesirable Air/land interface.l

[MissMarple2]

The Hill
@thehill

Lara Trump leading Republicans as favorite in 2022 North Carolina Senate poll
http://hill.cm/kZUkTUX
====================================
Since this is from The Hill, I take it that North Carolinians are really fed up OR The Hill is just trying to stir up more trouble.

[peter]

They stopped making Glass Wax for some reason, which is a shame because it worked really well. You can buy cans of it on Ebay. There are similar products you can buy from distributors of auto detailing products. I don't know why they stopped making Glass Wax. Maybe because it contained petroleum distillates and was flammable?
The guy that invented it started out selling it from his basement and wound up being a philanthropist.

[Narciso]

Holy steven austin!

[Melinda]

Might be in paint stores as something else. Too useful to ignore.

[Barbara]

Miss Marple,

That a good question. I haven't seen Glasswax in the stores for years. One place to look for would be the Vermont Country Store. They carry many old products from years ago.

[Barbara]

Thanks for that information, Peter. What a shame.

[peter]

Here's the substitute I found for Glass Wax: Auto Glym glass cleaner--https://www.paulsdistributors.com/ecommerce/shop-by-category/glass-cleaners/glass-cleaner.html

I'd rather drink this stuff than Chinese liquor.

[lyle]

Well, dang it, Buckeye. I was hoping you were being plied with knock off Chateau Mouton Rothschild...😆

[Barbara]

Peter,

Great! Now all we need are the stencils.

[lyle]

Swallowell bangs some chink spy trim and blames...Trump. Insty invokes the Marion Barry defense but “bitch Drumpf set me up” doesn’t seem to flow all that well.

[MissMarple2]

https://nypost.com/2020/12/09/jason-slater-original-third-eye-blind-bassist-dead-at-49/

Not a music expert but this guy's obit came across my Twitter feed, so thought some of you might have known of him.

[peter]

Barbara @ 6:50, how is this one?

https://www.stencilrevolution.com/products/we-the-people-stencil

[henry]

Nice video of the SpaceX test flight at link

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1336823930393419776?s=21

[MissMarple2]

Does Clorox kill Covid? Daughter is now convinced (due to a phone appointment with her doctor) that she has it because she is tired. (Of course, it could be vegetarian diet, gloomy weather, depression, looking at boring insurance stuff on a screen all day, no human contact, etc.)

On the off chance she does have it, I was wondering if I should add that to the dishwater since I hand wash everything.

[lyle]

Maybe I should create a new slang term on UD: Chinese trim = fang. 😂

[lyle]

Of course, it could be vegetarian diet

Ding ding ding!

[henry]

Miss M, chlorine does kill COVID. So does dish soap.

[Kathryn Anne]

Hunter Biden news should have been released months ago.
Like the relief Bill, the excuse is “ Well there is an election”
Not good enough. Do your job reporters and Congress.
Come clean with the truth.

[caro]

Thanks, Peter. That is a fun site.

[Jim Eagle]

Off to early bed. Love all. Stay true to each other.

[lyle]

Do your job reporters

Ahem. What YOU think their job is and what THEY think their job is could not be more diametrically opposed, dear.

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Grain of salt but...

Over the past four days, there have been MASSIVE movements of troops, equipment and supplies WITHIN the continental United States (CONUS). Today (Tue.), the US Navy is positioning Aircraft carriers and their strike groups off both the US east and west coasts. It appears we are preparing to defend ourselves from an invasion. China?

Late Saturday, no fewer than 25 C-17 aircraft were in the skies over the USA, carrying troops and equipment from around the nation . . . ALL going to Nellis Air Force Base.
Also late Saturday, no fewer than 12 C-130 aircraft were also on the move, ALSO ALL heading into Nellis.

On Sunday, locals on and around Nellis reported the base was "swarming" with soldiers and Marines. They also reported seeing a vast array of land fighting vehicles coming out of cargo aircraft.

NAVAL DEPLOYMENTS
This morning, according the the US Naval Institute, the Navy has deployed THREE (3) Aircraft Carriers, plus a Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) off the US West Coast, and TWO (2) Aircraft carriers and their Strike Groups plus another LHD off the US East Coast.

Off the West Coast is the USS Carl Vinson in the Pacific (NOT AT PORT) along the Oregon/Washington Border,.
.
Given these new naval deployments, and the very large, sudden, movement of troops into Nellis AFB, one gets the impression that the United States is preparing to defend its homeland from actual invasion.

Hint: That may actually be the case.
Word in Intelligence circles says that if the Supreme Court voids any or all of the November 3 election due to the massive fraud and violations of the US Constitution with changes to election laws, the lawless extension of voting for weeks, in violation of 3 USC 1 & 2, the Democrats are planning on asking the United Nations to INVADE to depose Trump as a "Dictator." There is also word within Intelligence circles that the states of California, Oregon, and Washington, plus New York, might actually try to secede from the Union if Trump gets four more years, and may need to be forcibly brought back under US control, the same way renegade southern states were handled back in the 1860's Civil War."

(HT Note: It would gladden my heart to see the US military bombing egomaniac Governor Andrew Cuomo and filthy Commie NYC Mayor Bill DeBlasio back into the Union . . . or to Kingdom come . .😉

China and Russia are deploying their naval assets in such a way that transit to the US would not take long!

China is positioning out in the Pacific.

[henry]

Great. A simultaneous WWIII to go with CWII.

[Jim Eagle]

Stephanie,

Refer to my ealier posted comment on this. All about external threats but if it was internal threat it would be great theater.

[henry]

I hope we at least have the aliens on our side.

@ezralevant

The biggest scoop I’ve ever had in my life. Trudeau invited Chinese troops to learn winter warfare tactics at the Canadian Forces Base @GarrisonPet. 34 unredacted pages of cowardice and appeasement towards China, hostility towards America.

https://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1336759505623855106?s=21

[clarice]

Hope you are well soon, Bela.

[Tom R]

https://babylonbee.com/news/in-its-a-wonderful-life-remake-angel-tells-george-bailey-to-go-kill-himself-because-hes-white/

Be sure to read the entire article.

[lyle]

the Democrats are planning on asking the United Nations to INVADE to depose Trump as a "Dictator."

How many divisions does the UN have?

[Buckeye]

Sounds good to me. Military will be too busy to deploy anyone to protect Antifa rioters.

[MJW]

This filing is a disgrace. The state AGs hopping on board know this is a loser but they evidently see personal political upside in staying on the same page with Trump and his ardent followers.

TM must luvs him some Biden/Harris to react this emotionally to a motion that he dismisses as a sure loser, and therefore no threat. I notice no analysis of why the motion is disgraceful. If it's because it's legally unsound, I'd be interested in hearing the details of TM's insightful legal analysis. It it's because the motion, while making possibly sound arguments, is nevertheless sure to lose, the disgrace is with the supreme court, not with Texas.

[lyle]

The film will be only 20 minutes long and it will end with George Bailey asking forgiveness for his oppression. He then donates all his life insurance money to BLM and jumps off a bridge.<

Even the woke version is 15 minutes too long.

[MissMarple2]

Daughter has gone to sleep and her younger dog is guarding her. I have on my space heater in here and the old terrier (EIGHTEEN) is curled up in front of it.

WWIII? Bring it, China asshoes! I wonder what President Trump will say at the Army-Navy game Saturday at West Point.