The "Big One" - A Disgrace From Texas

Trump declares it to be "The Big One"! Here is the controversial Supreme Court filing with the ludicrous statistical analysis included. A sampling:

Chances of Biden winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin independently after [Trump's]

early lead is less than one in a quadrillion:

 

Uh huh. So basically, a Biden comeback was less likely than an asteroid strike even though plenty of folks had warned about Blue Mirages and Red Mirages before Election night. Everybody, with the apparent exception of this analyst (Prof. Cicchetti) understood that in most states Democrats were the bigger users of absentee ballots. Consequently, in the states that counted absentee ballots as they came in before the election, Biden would stat election night with a big lead into which Trump would gnaw as the night wore on. In states that set absentee ballots aside and counted them after the polls were closed, that would reverse - an early Trump lead would shrink and maybe reverse.

 

The "one in a quadrillion" analysis rests on the premise that the late-counted absentee votes were drawn from the same pool as the initial votes. If Trump got 52% of the first 90% of votes but then got less than 32% of the remainder, he'd lose. Unlikely? INCREDIBLY unlikely IF all the votes are coming from the same pool. HIGHLY likely if the late votes were widely understood to be from a county or process (eg, absentee) that tilted to Biden.

 

As a bonus contribution to our understanding of politics the professor explained that Biden backers of 2020 were behaving the same as Hillary backer in 2016. If you think an election is simply a random draw from the same people with the same partisan tilt from one election to the next, this is an incredibly unlikely result (Hmm, campaigns - how do they work?). In reality, what is incredibly unlikely is that the Supreme Court will even begin to take this seriously. NO, they have not taken up the case yet.

 

Lest you doubt, a snippet.

 

 

 

This filing is a disgrace. The state AGs hopping on board know this is a loser but they evidently see personal political upside in staying on the same page with Trump and his ardent followers.

Comments

[rich]

>>>Prediction--investigation will cause Biden to resign if he is sworn in

The presumption is that a corrupt administration will not feature a corrupt DoJ who will be instructed to

**waves hand**

make it go away.

Posted by: Soylent Red | December 10, 2020 at 03:15 PM<<<

my point was that it is message sending to the biden crime family to step aside when asked, shortly after the inauguration-not too close and not too far.

electors ...

states have different methods of dealing with faithless electors, mostly a heavy fine. if it goes to the house though it would be by state delegation and the members could vote for whomever they chose. most i think would stick to biden or trump but some members might vote for someone whom didn't run.

[MissMarple2]

Captain Hate,

I think his picture makes the complainers (required to get banned on Rasputin's site) reluctant to complain because racism.

Also, most who would complain don't have the perseverance or intellect to read a long thread like that.

[rich]

>>>Anyone watching the Pitt/GaTech game (besides Steph? 😉)? The bobbled balls/interceptions/fumbles stuff is bizarre.

Posted by: lyle | December 10, 2020 at 08:24 PM<<<

point shaving or lack of practice ... hummm, the ncaa, i'd go with point shaving.

[Captain Hate]

I think his picture makes the complainers (required to get banned on Rasputin's site) reluctant to complain because racism.

Like it works here?

[lyle]

Like it works here?

Wut?

[lyle]

Sorry, too many antecedents for me.

[rich]

y'all can't be messin' with my man rattlergator ... orange-blue!!!

[MissMarple2]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
So true, a must read!

https://spectator.org/fox-news-trump/
==================================
Link goes to a good article about Fox's meltdown.

[Captain Hate]

Sure I can. He switched the goalposts on me and I'm not shutting up about it.

[MissMarple2]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
No Presidential candidate ever came even close to losing an Election who won Iowa, Florida and Ohio. I won all three, by a lot!

[MissMarple2]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
19 states are fighting for us, almost unheard of support!

[MissMarple2]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
39m
Tremendous support from all over the Country. All we ask is COURAGE & WISDOM from those that will be making one of the most important decisions in our Country’s history. God bless you!

[Captain Hate]

Warmongers love Liz

https://twitter.com/liz_cheney/status/1337138096689868809?s=21

[Melinda]

"Vitiate"

Purple ink works.

[MissMarple2]

I think I posted this earlier today as a video from Dan Scavino. If you missed it, it's a good 2-minutes of showing the support and crowds the President has. If videos aren't your thing, you can skip it.

pic.twitter.com/hab5WLhtrI

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 10, 2020

[MissMarple2]

Captain Hate,

Note how she snarks about his height rather than addressing the areas of disagreement.

Quite like a Democrat, to go to a personal insult, isn't it?

Let's see how quickly the media creeps decide that Liz Cheney is "statesmanlike", which I will bet will happen by noon tomorrow.

[peter]

I see that my dopey state is one of the states fighting the Texas petition.

[KevlarKid]

Lol @ dopey state

[Catsmeat]

Hope RG comes by! If you have not met him--I know Jane and narc have and surely others--you would love him. Sorry, CH!

[jim nj]

IANAL yet I think that amicus for the defendants is awfully weak and addresses many points that are not in the original complaint. Did the defendant states do any better? If this is just a straight up legal battle defendants and amici are already losing.

Maybe they needed more time?

[Jane]

Excellent Clarice. I’m in.

I wish 26 states supported us - and all house republicans. It does make it easier to see who is tied to China.

[lyle]

I’d love to meet RG!

[lyle]

Give him a cooking lesson or two...😎

[Jane]

I’ve met him a few times Lyle. He’s fun!

[sbwaters]

RG has principles and class.

[lyle]

I mean this in the nicest, non-double entendre way, Jane: you get around. 😉

[henry]

I’ve met RG. Nice man. We disagree on a few things, mostly assumptions.

[KevlarKid]

We're all nice men. 😜🌮🍟🌮

[henry]

How RINO can you get? Barr says “hold my beer”

@wsj

Attorney General Barr has known about a set of investigations involving Hunter Biden’s business and financial dealings since at least this spring, a person familiar with the matter said, and worked to avoid their public disclosure during the campaign

[sbwaters]

New thread!

[clarice]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/12/a_summary_of_texas_election_lawsuit_.html

[boris]

*** New ***


Click for new thread ^

[JimNorCal]

Test