Should We Stay Or Should We Go Now?

Peter Baker of the NY Times ponders possible alternatives to the Biden/Trump framing of Afghanistan as a choice between full withdrawal or significant escalation. Sure, to (mis)quote a genius SecState, at this point what difference does it make? But this factoid suggests the unpopular stalemate was achieving some US national security goals with a low level of casualties:

After drawdowns beginning under Mr. Obama, just a fraction of the troops there at the peak were left, yet military strategists said they had an outsize impact in keeping Afghan security forces in the fight without engaging in as much combat themselves.

Fewer than 100 American troops died in combat in Afghanistan over the past five years, roughly the equivalent of the number of Americans currently dying from Covid-19 every two hours. Until the devastating attack this week by ISIS-K at the Kabul airport killed 13 American service members, the military had suffered no combat deaths since the Trump agreement was signed.

Yes, 100 deaths is 100 too many if no purpose is being served. But 5,000 US troops and associated air support were apparently a huge force multiplier propping up an Afghan army with dubious morale.

“The administration is presenting the choices in a way that is, at best, incomplete,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, a deputy national security adviser under President George W. Bush who oversaw earlier stages of the Afghan war. “No one I knew was advocating the return of tens of thousands of Americans into ‘open combat’ with the Taliban.”

Instead, some, including the current military leadership of Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, asserted that keeping a relatively modest force of as few as 3,000 to 4,500 troops along with the extensive use of drones and close air support could have enabled Afghan security forces to continue holding off the Taliban without putting Americans at much risk.

“There was an alternative that could have prevented further erosion and likely enabled us to roll back some of the Taliban gains in recent years,” said Gen. David H. Petraeus, the retired commander of American forces in Afghanistan and former C.I.A. director who argued the mission was making progress while serving alongside Mr. Biden under President Barack Obama.

If memory serves (and it does), the idea of a light US footprint focused on counter-terrorism rather than counterinsurgency was Biden's plan back in 2009. Met with derision at the time, maybe it doesn't looks so bad now.

Seems like a shame to skip the derision from 2009:

And others, more harshly, argue that Mr. Biden’s judgment on foreign policy has often been off base.

They point out that he voted against the successful Persian Gulf war of 1991, voted for the Iraq invasion of 2003, proposed dividing Iraq into three sections in 2006 and opposed the additional troops credited by many with turning Iraq around in 2007.

“When was the last time Biden was right about anything?” Thomas E. Ricks, a military writer, wrote in a blog on Sept. 24. Mr. Ricks is affiliated with the Center for a New American Security, a research organization founded by Democrats.

Well. By 2021, not even Team Biden liked the old Biden plan (my emphasis):

 

The Biden team considered other options, including keeping a small presence of troops for counterterrorism operations or to support Afghan security forces, but reasoned that was just “magical thinking” and would take more troops than was sustainable. They discussed whether to renegotiate the Trump agreement to extract more concessions but the Taliban made clear it would not return to the bargaining table and considered the Trump deal binding.

 

"Sustainable" seems to mean "politically popular here in the US". The wind has certainly shifted here since 2009, so the national security parallel to "defund the police" carried the day.

 

And why did Biden stick with the withdrawal negotiated by Trump? One 'excuse' which Biden offered and rejected is that Trump forced his hand:

 

Following the deal, Mr. Trump reduced American forces in Afghanistan to 4,500 from 13,000. Eager to be the president to end the war, he signed a memo to the Pentagon instructing it to pull out all remaining forces by Jan. 15 before leaving office, but was talked out of it by advisers. Instead, he ordered the force drawn down to 2,500 troops in his final days, although about 3,500 actually remained.

 

For Mr. Biden, inheriting such a small force in Afghanistan meant that commanders were already left with too few troops to respond to a renewed Taliban offensive against American forces, which he deemed certain to come if he jettisoned Mr. Trump’s agreement, requiring him to send thousands more troops back in, officials said.

 

While he has suggested he had little choice because of the Trump agreement, Mr. Biden in fact was already determined to pull out of Afghanistan regardless and acknowledged in a recent interview with ABC News that “I would have tried to figure out how to withdraw those troops” even if his predecessor had not negotiated a deal with the Taliban.

 

A stranger point - Biden did modify the deal, changing the deadline from May 1 (roughly the kickoff of 'fighting season', after the poppy harvest is in)  to Aug 31, prime fightin' time. Seemingly better months were considered and rejected:

Mr. Biden’s advisers also considered extending the withdrawal deadline until the winter, after the traditional fighting season was over, to make the transition less dangerous for the Afghan government. The Afghanistan Study Group, a bipartisan congressionally chartered panel that was led by Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., a retired Joint Chiefs chairman and that included Ms. O’Sullivan, in February recommended extending the May 1 deadline and seeking better conditions before pulling out.

But Mr. Biden was warned by security specialists that the longer it took to withdraw after a decision was announced, the more dangerous it would become, aides said, so he extended it only until Aug. 31.

Some say none of this would have happened if Biden were still alive.

Comments

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Michael Smith
·
Want an explanation of the behavior of the Biden government?
Hear ye the words of Professor Hayek, screaming across the void of time:
Advancement within a totalitarian group or party depends largely on a willingness to do immoral things. The principle that the end justifies the means, which in individualist ethics is regarded as the denial of all morals, in collectivist ethics becomes necessarily the supreme rule. There is literally nothing which the consistent collectivist must not be prepared to do if it serves “the good of the whole,” because that is to him the only criterion of what ought to be done. Once you admit that the individual is merely a means to serve the ends of the higher entity called society or the nation, most of those features of totalitarianism which horrify us follow of necessity. From the collectivist standpoint intolerance and brutal suppression of dissent, deception and spying, the complete disregard of the life and happiness of the individual are essential and unavoidable. Acts which revolt all our feelings, such as the shooting of hostages or the killing of the old or sick, are treated as mere matters of expediency; the compulsory uprooting and transportation of hundreds of thousands becomes an instrument of policy approved by almost everybody except the victims. To be a useful assistant in the running of a totalitarian state, therefore, a man must be prepared to break every moral rule he has ever known if this seems necessary to achieve the end set for him. In the totalitarian machine there will be special opportunities for the ruthless and unscrupulous. Neither the Gestapo nor the administration of a concentration camp, neither the Ministry of Propaganda nor the SA or SS (or their Russian counterparts) are suitable places for the exercise of humanitarian feelings. Yet it is through such positions that the road to the highest positions in the totalitarian state leads. A distinguished American economist, Professor Frank H. Knight, correctly notes that the authorities of a collectivist state “would have to do these things whether they wanted to or not: and the probability of the people in power being individuals who would dislike the possession and exercise of power is on a level with the probability that an extremely tenderhearted person would get the job of whipping master in a slave plantation.”
A further point should be made here: Collectivism means the end of truth. To make a totalitarian system function efficiently, it is not enough that everybody should be forced to work for the ends selected by those in control; it is essential that the people should come to regard these ends as their own. This is brought about by propaganda and by complete control of all sources of information.
The most effective way of making people accept the validity of the values they are to serve is to persuade them that they are really the same as those they have always held, but which were not properly understood or recognized before. And the most efficient technique to this end is to use the old words but change their meaning. Few traits of totalitarian regimes are at the same time so confusing to the superficial observer and yet so characteristic of the whole intellectual climate as this complete perversion of language.
The worst sufferer in this respect is the word “liberty.” It is a word used as freely in totalitarian states as elsewhere. Indeed, it could almost be said that wherever liberty as we know it has been destroyed, this has been done in the name of some new freedom promised to the people. Even among us we have planners who promise us a “collective freedom,” which is as misleading as anything said by totalitarian politicians. “Collective freedom” is not the freedom of the members of society but the unlimited freedom of the planner to do with society that which he pleases. This is the confusion of freedom with power carried to the extreme. It is not difficult to deprive the seat majority of independent thought. But the minority who will retain an inclination to criticize must also be silenced. Public criticism or even expressions of doubt must be suppressed because they tend to weaken support of the regime. As Sidney and Beatrice Webb report of the position in every Russian enterprise: “Whilst the work is in progress, any public expression of doubt that the plan will be successful is an act of disloyalty and even of treachery because of its possible effect on the will and efforts of the rest of the staff.”

[GUS]

Stephanie and Michael Smith.
Biden has NEVER been an accomplished man. He has always been a lying bloviating buffoon, ERGO, the "HEH HEH, THAT'S JUST JOE" statements for decades.
I challenge ANYONE to note or list ONE accomplishment that this disgusting immoral man has ever achieved. JUST ONE.
We've given our country to a man who couldn't change the oil in our car.

[Pinandpuller]

If you live in Texas and you’re worried about the prospect of needing an abortion try holding a cloth mask between your knees.

[Pinandpuller]

GUS

Joe Biden is sort of like Forest Gump, and by that I mean retarded.

[Pinandpuller]

A lot of cops in San Francisco are quitting because they refuse to get “The Jab”.

You know things are going sideways when police don’t trust “qualified immunity.”

[GUS]

Pin, I love you my brother. Biden is dumber and less accomplished, than any blustering clown, that you and I have known personally. At my 30th class reunion, my band played and rocked, and mingled with my old CLASS. Some of the douche bags there, introduced themselves to me vis a vis their own self remembered glories. It was uncomfortable to hear old TEAM MATES, who remembered themselves in a glorious measure, despite being less than GLORIOUS.
But what taught ne something, was, those who clung to being attached to such LITTLE valor, clinging to it for all it was worth, were so attached to something, that was so far gone, and of little value. If memories of ALMOST, from decades ago, were so important, WHAT HAPPENED TO THESE PEOPLE, and their self worth/achievements, since??? PIN, life goes on, and every step forward, is more importannt than any PREVIOUS STEP.
I received a letter from My State Senator today.
I know him and support him in Wisconsin. Anywho, the LETTER was addressed to MY NAME. As you know Pin, my boy, my Son, has the exact same name as me. My State Senator, was CONGRATULATING MICKEY on being a 4.0 DEANS LIST MEMBER. That is all that matters to me. Our nation is in a real WORLD OF HURT. Biden and his CABAL are very very dirty and serious fuck ups. WE, you and I, and our attached friends, and MY SON, will destroy this cabal of fuck tards. WE WILL

[Jim Eagle]

Good morning, y'all!

Today, Frederick sits for his interview with Stonyhurst School to pick his IB subjects. Then we have a week to get him ready for his last year of school.

Also, today is his birthday: 18y.o. (time flies).

[henry]

HB Frederick!

[Davod]

Jim Eagle. Good luck.

[Jane]

Happy Birthday Frederick! Where is Stoneyhurst school? Is he going back to Belgium ?

[clarice]

We had a terrible storm last night with lots of flooding and more--plus a tornado warning is on the way. I was so tired I slept through it, but my cat must have been worried she tucked herself up to me all night.

[clarice]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9944489/Thousands-flee-Taliban-held-Afghanistan-walking-miles-desert-Pakistan-Iran.html

[Narciso]

Happy birthday frederick

Forrest gump was always true of heart, biden snidely whiplash

[henry]

give it a month and these will require mandatory attendance.

The Wall Street Journal
@WSJ

Cities are adding emergency facilities to provide mental-health care, a need officials say has grown during the Covid-19 pandemic on.wsj.com/3gRc7xP

[Narciso]

When youre over the target

https://thenationalpulse.com/news/meta-ignorance-with-profound-consequences-u-s-govts-crisis-response-director-resigned-after-bidens-state-dept-canceled-lifeline-group-over-trump-links/

[Momto2]

Happy Birthday, Frederick! Can't believe it's his last year already.

And congratulations to Mickey on making the Dean's List! Quite an accomplishment and I know you are very proud of him, Gus.

It's great to read these positive reports amid the doom & gloom we seem to face daily. I'm still bombarded with all sorts of abandoned dogs in Afghanistan photos and stories. As with the abandoned humans, someone is lying and I suspect I know who!

[Narciso]

Good grief

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/did-gender-studies-lose-afghanistan/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Narciso]

Indeed

https://justthenews.com/government/security/were-americans-people-screaming-outside-gates-kabul-airport-turned-away

[Davod]

Clarice. Same here. But at least I didn't have any tree branches fall on the roof like last week.

[Marlene]

Good Morning! clarice, the daughter just called and said the storm woke her up last night.
Yikes! I think Frederick was in 4th grade when I started commenting on JOM.
Congrats to your son, Gus!
Hubby is at the vet again with Scout. :(

[Len]

We're getting the Ida rain all day today. Silver lining is that it postponed my district court jury summons until tomorrow.

Our idiot governor, not satisfied with the number of school districts mandating masks and no doubt to take well-deserved heat off the school boards, has ordered a statewide school mask mandate. What a dope. And totalitarian tool.

[Narciso]

Dime otros (tell me another one)

https://mobile.twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1432957662350745601

[Narciso]

They run the show dumkopf

https://amp.dw.com/en/why-qatar-fosters-close-contact-with-the-taliban/a-59030146

[Davod]

It is a pity there is not more commentary about the Taliban not being a homegrown movement. They are invaders from Pakistan, who bring a Saudi based ideology with them.

[Narciso]

When they are confronted they dont fare to well

https://mobile.twitter.com/NA2NRF/status/1432953553711247362

[Narciso]

Oh

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1432872554482618368

[Melinda]

There will be passports, dammit!

TMJ4 News
@tmj4
Milwaukee's performing arts organizations will now require audiences to provide either proof of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test result within 72 hours of events.
tmj4.com/news/coronavir…

https://twitter.com/tmj4/status/1433036925569409033

[Narciso]

Check for seed pods a bigger problem

[henry]

maybe require vax passport to owe or pay taxes.

[Narciso]

Unsurprising

https://emeralddb3.substack.com/p/how-the-church-of-nice-replaced-the

[Neo]

Biden's Disastrous Withdrawal from Afghanistan was an “Extraordinary Success” for a vegetable

[Narciso]

Splunge

https://mobile.twitter.com/davereaboi/status/1432910106719625227

[Neo]

CBSNews:
Social Security and Medicare, the government's two biggest benefit programs, remain under intense financial pressure with the retirement of millions of baby boomers and a devastating pandemic. Social Security will be unable to pay full benefits starting in 2034, a year earlier than previously forecast, due to impact of the crisis.

[henry]

USDA’s authority? Apparently based on Centers for Disease Control & Prevention guidance, not law or inspection rules. Nolechek’s appeal notes USDA did not go through the rule-making process in pushing the mask mandate.

“Coercion is not choice,” Fox said.

So Nolechek’s appealed. It lost within 12 hours.

https://empowerwisconsin.org/usda-threatens-little-meat-processor-over-masks/

[sbwaters]

New thread.

[Melinda]

US equipment left behind in Afghanistan now seen on the road east of Tehran.

Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
#BREAKING
American Humvees in #Iran, courtesy of the Taliban, thanks to the Biden admin.

An Iranian Telegram channel covering military topics released "exclusive" images that purportedly show Humvees & other military vehicles spotted on the Semnan-Garmsar road east of Tehran.

https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status/1433045442120531974

[Melinda]

Side note: Iraq had "gifted" 20 Humvees to Iran, some time ago. So there MAY be overlap.

[Davod]

If the US equipment is in Iran, it will be moved to wherever it can be used to trick US or allies troops on the ground.