Fires Burn Out (Unless They Don't)

The Times ponders a Covid mystery - why have surges faded after about two months?

Has Delta Peaked?

We investigate Covid’s mysterious two-month cycle

By David Leonhardt and Ashley Wu

Has the Delta-fueled Covid-19 surge in the U.S. finally peaked? The number of new daily U.S. cases has risen less over the past week than at any point since June, as you can see in this chart:

 

There is obviously no guarantee that the trend will continue. But there is one big reason to think that it may and that caseloads may even soon decline. Since the pandemic began, Covid has often followed a regular — if mysterious — cycle. In one country after another, the number of new cases has often surged for roughly two months before starting to fall. The Delta variant, despite its intense contagiousness, has followed this pattern.

Sadly, there is no particular explanation. And in any case, there is an obvious issue of aggregation - even if Florida and Texas have peaked that does not assure that New England, relatively calm so far, has also peaked.

They serve up some speculation:

Two possible stories

We have asked experts about these two-month cycles, and they acknowledged that they could not explain it. “We still are really in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, why they do what they do,” Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, said.

But two broad categories of explanation seem plausible, the experts say.

One involves the virus itself. Rather than spreading until it has reached every last person, perhaps it spreads in waves that happen to follow a similar timeline. How so? Some people may be especially susceptible to a variant like Delta, and once many of them have been exposed to it, the virus starts to recede — until a new variant causes the cycle to begin again (or until a population approaches herd immunity).

The second plausible explanation involves human behavior. People don’t circulate randomly through the world. They live in social clusters, Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, points out. Perhaps the virus needs about two months to circulate through a typically sized cluster, infecting the most susceptible — and a new wave starts when people break out of their clusters, such as during a holiday. Alternately, people may follow cycles of taking more and then fewer Covid precautions, depending on their level of concern.

Mr. Leonhardt had more at the end of July, including a "Stay Humble" message - since we don't know what's going on its hard to be sure how helpful our various interventions (other than vaccines!) have really been:

A more plausible explanation appears to be that Delta spreads very quickly at first and, for some unknown set of reasons, peters out long before a society has reached herd immunity. As Andy Slavitt, a former Covid adviser to President Biden, told me, “It seems to rip through really fast and infect the people it’s going to infect.” The most counterintuitive idea here is that an outbreak can fade even though many people remain vulnerable to Covid.

That’s not guaranteed to happen everywhere, and there probably will be more variants after Delta. Remember: Covid behaves in mysterious ways. But Americans should not assume that Delta is destined to cause months of rising caseloads. Nor should they assume that a sudden decline, if one starts this summer, fits a tidy narrative that attributes the turnaround to rising vaccination and mask wearing.

“These surges have little to do with what humans do,” Osterholm argues. “Only recently, with vaccines, have we begun to have a real impact.”

I don’t want anyone to think that Osterholm is making a nihilist argument. Human responses do make a difference: Masks and social distancing can slow the spread of the virus, and vaccination can end a pandemic.

The most important step has been the vaccination of many older people. As a result, total British deaths have risen only modestly this summer, while deaths and hospitalizations remain rarer in heavily vaccinated parts of the U.S. than in less vaccinated ones.

But Osterholm’s plea for humility does have policy implications. It argues for prioritizing vaccination over every other strategy. It also reminds us to avoid believing that we can always know which behaviors create risks.

Humility is in short supply these days.

Comments

[Old Lurker]

Sorry, I have zero interest in anything reported, explained, or speculated by anybody in the Government Health Care Arena nor in the senior ranks of private Big Medicine.

Zero trust.

Zero, if not less than Zero.

[sbwaters]

I just tweeted:

Next time someone seems way off base, ask "Where do you get your news?" Often it will be the #NYTimes or the alphabet media. Respond "Okay, now I understand." And drop the subject. — They don't expect #journalism because they don’t know what it is.

[Melinda]

Morning Answer
@MorningAnswer
They just continue to make it up as they go along.

Emma Woodhouse 😁 @EWoodhouse7
Illinois DPH Director making her boldest, most insane claim yet about masks yet:

“The bottom line is that masks are as effective as vaccines are."

WOW

chicago.chalkbeat.org/2021/8/26/2264…

https://twitter.com/MorningAnswer/status/1433078836212682754

https://chicago.chalkbeat.org/2021/8/26/22643352/covid-cases-illinois-school-districts-reopening-push-quarantine

[henry]

Masks don’t do squat, except the medical N97 gizmos that nobody uses.

[Melinda]

US equipment left behind in Afghanistan now seen on the road east of Tehran.

Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
#BREAKING
American Humvees in #Iran, courtesy of the Taliban, thanks to the Biden admin.

An Iranian Telegram channel covering military topics released "exclusive" images that purportedly show Humvees & other military vehicles spotted on the Semnan-Garmsar road east of Tehran.

https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status/1433045442120531

[Side Note from Willowed post: Iraq had "gifted" Iran 20 HumVees some time ago, so there is overlap potential here.]

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Cities are adding emergency facilities to provide mental-health care, a need officials say has grown during the Covid-19 pandemic on.--

The dumbasses running the cities are the ones in greatest need of mental health care.

[Rick Ballard]

OL,

I agree with your assessment of the value of Drooling Class utterance. We must not ever look at Sweden again and we should never, ever consider Israel (most masked, most vaccinated and requiring Green Cards for free movement) as the miracle vaccines fail rather spectacularly after four months.

Better to quiver in fear under our beds as the Wuflu continues to behave like every other endemic respiratory virus, marked only by its novelty and danger to the infirm and elderly.

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Michael Smith
·
I have written about the idea of "managed decline" in the past.
The phrase "managed decline" originated in the business world to describe the "sunsetting" of a business, a market or an industry, the phase at the end of a lifecycle, where the the goal is the minimizing of costs or other forms of losses and harm as the target slowly dies.
It is a form of euthanasia.
But the contemporary Dr. Kevorkian's are 1) not smart enough to be doctors, 2) are brain addled political animals, 3) literal fools addicted to hysteria and unhappiness and 4) willing to murder a perfectly healthy patient when they get a head cold.
And yet, the Kervorkians intubate America and put her on a ventilator every time they get on top. Academia has been proclaiming America's demise for generations and yet, she always recovers.
America was never, nor is it today, in decline. As do all economies, America has its ups and downs, but measuring a free market is a lot like watching your stock portfolio on a daily basis. You will be up by 20% one minute and down 30% the next - it will drive you nuts. We gave our kids fractional stock ownership accounts a while back and that is the first thing we had to teach them - look at them once a month and don't sell on a short-term downturn.
The Obama Democrats, fueled by the ideas of navel gazing, self-loathing, race-baiting communists in their party, the media and academia, chose to take advantage of conditions brought about by their own policies to initiate and accelerate decline. The minute things start on a downward curve, they are ready to sell their stock in America and that panic selling always deepens the curve.
I once thought it was all about power, but I have come to believe the intent is far more insidious. There are self-proclaimed "elites" in the ruling class who understand they will never be able to destroy the spirit of America due to its resilience, so they have decided that America must be punished, put in her place, as it were.
That is why they chose to initiate a managed decline, to make America suffer for her "sins".
"But they are Americans, too", you might think. "Won't they suffer?"
Not in their model - because the self-appointed arbiters of America's good and bad never subject themselves to the same conditions as the dirty, smelly, Walmart people who deserve punishment for being who they are.
They have a plan, and that plan incudes a world where America is not exceptional, every aspect of your life is centrally controlled, democracy is truly dead (you will still vote, it is just that the outcome is preordained) and America will be subservient to China, the country these "decliners" see as the model for the future.
Under the Kervorkians, America is to become a Vichy state, a colony or protectorate of China, with the CCP pulling the strings. Of course, they will keep the trappings of the old America, things like the Constitution, the American flag and national anthem, baseball and apple pie, will all be around, they just won't be real.
President Trump unashamedly showed the people that, as Charles Krauthammer once said, decline is not inevitable, it is a choice, and he properly laid the blame and responsibility for "managed decline" at the feet of the people responsible.
And the Kervorkians did not like being exposed.
Not one little bit.
If you are rational, the only way you can reconcile the 180 degree turn from the first three years of the Trump presidency with the lost year of 2020 and the Biden presidency of 2021 is to recognize how the Democrats took the downturn from a pandemic, instituted policies that made it worse and then claimed to have the cure (the only thing it cures is their own lust for power).
Exactly like Biden just did with Afghanistan, they took a bad situation, made it worse by asserting false choices, and then demanded credit for fixing things that they didn't fix.
The Kervorkians have returned.
Life is always predicted by a Monty Python movie or sketch. If most of you are seeing the "Bring out your dead!" scene from "Quest for the Holy Grail", you are part of my tribe. In my analogy, America is the old man who says "I'm not dead yet!" and "I'm getting better!" Biden is the guy who tosses the "dead" man on the cart and the Democrats are the Dead Collector who eventually whacks the old guy on the head and takes the ninepence.
My message to America is this: Be patient. Don't panic. America still has good fundamentals. Don't start selling your stock in America...and for God's sake, fire your Democrat Kervorkian brokers immediately!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--I don’t want anyone to think that Osterholm is making a nihilist argument. Human responses do make a difference:--

Nihilist is a loaded word like "denier" that intentionally mischaracterizes a differing, skeptical and often more well reasoned viewpoint as thoughtless and primitive.
The user of which almost always then refutes said primitive viewpoint with a considerably more primitive argument by assertion, hand waving or, in this case, cherry picked data.

--hospitalizations remain rarer in heavily vaccinated parts of the U.S. than in less vaccinated ones--

The gap is closing because ADE takes time to develop; often a couple of years, which is one reason potential vaccines are tested for long periods. Let's hope it doesn't develop fully, but if it does, the reality is the vaccinated will be the vulnerable.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Excellent Michael Smith at 11:14.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

“And there is a need, whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.” - Joe Biden to Ashraf Ghani - July 23

New York Post again. So Joe knew and Joe tried to change the narrative. And still Joe did nothing to either support the Afghan government or begin the process of evacuation.

Perfidious Alboin doesn't begin to describe what a douchebag this guy is.

Yon was interviewed by John Solomon and attested to the fact that orders to keep the gates closed came from the top. Even after clearly identifying Americans standing at the gates, the Army would/could not let them in and 3 jets departed empty.

So on the one hand there are thousands of unvetted Afghans sitting in squalid conditions at military bases around the world and there are clearly identified, ready to roll Americans whop were left behind, including a bunch of high school kids.

Let's hand Milley, Biden, Austin and Blinken the revolver with one bullet and allow Harris to seek asylum in North Korea. Problem is, not one of them has a shred of honor.

[Melinda]

Emerald Robinson ✝️ @EmeraldRobinson
26m
Archbishop Vigano has released a new & extraordinary speech on the Great Reset and the New World Order that should be read carefully by every Christian, every patriot, every citizen around the world.

lifesitenews.com/opinion/vigano…

"The corruption of authority is such that it is very difficult (at least in human terms) to hypothesize a peaceful way out. In the course of history, totalitarian regimes have been overthrown by force..."

https://twitter.com/EmeraldRobinson/status/1433083906148929537

Viganò: considerations on the Great Reset and the New World Order

https://www.lifesitenews.com/opinion/vigano-considerations-on-the-great-reset-and-the-new-world-order/

[Narciso]

oh

https://english.newstracklive.com/news/northern-alliance-killed-350-taliban-who-came-to-attack-panjshir-40-were-taken-hostage-mc24-nu764-ta322-1180001-1.html

[Davod]

I would like to know who came up with the assessment that the Taliban forces numbered 70,000?

[Davod]

Narciso. The Taliban must have been in the rear of the Afghan forces and got attacked by them, only in their haste to escape.

[Narciso]

it's rather striking how blank the pages are

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/vaccine-effectiveness-assessing-the?token=

[Melinda]

Raheem J. Kassam
@RaheemKassam
“We are facing a full-scale invasion, composed of Taliban, full Pakistani planning and logistical support, and at least 10-15,000 international terrorists, predominantly Pakistanis thrown into this,” Ghani said.

Biden ignored it.

Then came the bloodshed. reuters.com/world/exclusiv…

https://twitter.com/RaheemKassam/status/1433091488611807235

[Narciso]

try again

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/08/31/hhs-amends-prep-act-liability-waiver-to-cover-only-nih-approved-treatments-for-covid-19/

[Narciso]

on paper, that might have been true, this is the same sort of wave with iraq in 2014, across the anbar valley, and yemen, north of sanaa with the houthi,

[Jane]

Steph,

Smith’s piece is the most optimistic thing I’ve read in a while.

[Jane]

Matt,

Now we know why Ghani fled in one day.

[Jane]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/breaking-dod-foreknowledge-kabul-airport-bomber-denied-permission-fire-predator-drone-lock-13-us-heroes-dead/

It just gets worse and worse.

DOD knew about the bombing of our troops before. A drone was aimed, and the DOD refused to let them stop it.

[Dave (in MA)]

Biden Victory Parade
https://twitter.com/i/status/1433089893312483330

[Neo]

the DoD had foreknowledge of the Kabul bomber AND denied permission to fire to the Predator drone that had a lock on the bomber.
https://twitter.com/BonillaJL/status/1432776611510767617

[Narciso]

osterholm occasionally gets the right idea, and then it passes,

[Neo]

Shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) gained 0.5% in premarket trading Wednesday, after The Wall Street Journal reported that the technology behemoth will eventually include a tool to monitor blood pressure and a thermometer to help with fertility planning in its smartwatches.

[Narciso]

better research franky

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9946683/Pope-quotes-PUTIN-criticises-West-trying-impose-democracy-Afghanistan.html

[Jane]

Thanks Neo, for clearing up my post.

[Neo]

The Republican-controlled Texas state House and Senate on Tuesday passed the final versions of the controversial voter integrity legislation, which the Democrats tried to oppose for months.

The House voted to pass the bill 80-41 with only one Republican joining the Democrats, and the Senate passed the legislation hours later with an 18-13 party-line vote.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/08/31/texas-legislature-passes-election-integrity-legislation/

[Narciso]

Good grief

https://nypost.com/2021/09/01/woke-democrat-tiffany-caban-wants-to-make-crime-victims-help-their-attackers/

[Jim Eagle]

What a "ship of fools" we have for leadership in America. From Biden all the way down to big city mayors. But Joe sets the baseline and so far everyone else is under it except for a few cowboy state folk that are above it (ie. Kristi Noem, etc.)

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

The Kervorkian Democrats: Bring Out Your Dead!
Life seems to always imitate a Monty Python sketch.

Michael Smith

I have written about the idea of "managed decline" in the past.

The phrase "managed decline" originated in the business world to describe the "sunsetting" of a business, a market or an industry, the phase at the end of a lifecycle, where the the goal is the minimizing of costs or other forms of losses and harm as the target slowly dies.

It is a form of euthanasia.

But the contemporary Dr. Kevorkian's are 1) not smart enough to be doctors, 2) are brain addled political animals, 3) literal fools addicted to hysteria and unhappiness and 4) willing to murder a perfectly healthy patient when they get a head cold.

And yet, the Kervorkians rush intubate America and put her on a ventilator every single time they get on top. Academia has been proclaiming America's demise for generations and yet, she always recovers.

America was never, nor is it today, in decline. As do all economies, America has its ups and downs, but measuring a free market is a lot like watching your stock portfolio on a daily basis. You will be up by 20% one minute and down 30% the next - it will drive you nuts. We gave our kids fractional stock ownership accounts a while back and that is the first thing we had to teach them - look at them once a month and don't sell on a short-term downturn.

The Obama Democrats, fueled by the ideas of navel gazing, self-loathing, race-baiting communists in their party, the media and academia, chose to take advantage of conditions brought about by their own policies to initiate and accelerate decline. The minute things start on a downward curve, they are ready to sell their stock in America and that panic selling always deepens the curve.

I once thought it was all about power, but I have come to believe the intent is far more insidious. There are self-proclaimed "elites" in the ruling class who understand they will never be able to destroy the spirit of America due to its resilience, so they have decided that America must be punished, put in her place, as it were.

That is why they chose to initiate a managed decline, to make America suffer for her "sins".

"But they are Americans, too", you might think. "Won't they suffer?"

Not in their model - because the self-appointed arbiters of America's good and bad never subject themselves to the same conditions as the dirty, smelly, Walmart people who deserve punishment for being who they are.

They have a plan, and that plan incudes a world where America is not exceptional, every aspect of your life is centrally controlled, democracy is truly dead (you will still vote, it is just that the outcome is preordained) and America will be subservient to China, the country these "decliners" see as the model for the future.

Under the Kervorkians, America is to become a Vichy state, a colony or protectorate of China, with the CCP pulling the strings. Of course, they will keep the trappings of the old America, things like the Constitution, the American flag and national anthem, baseball and apple pie, will all be around, they just won't be real.

President Trump unashamedly showed the people that, as Charles Krauthammer once said, decline is not inevitable, it is a choice, and he properly laid the blame and responsibility for "managed decline" at the feet of the people responsible.

And the Kervorkians did not like being exposed.

Not one little bit.

If you are rational, the only way you can reconcile the 180 degree turn from the first three years of the Trump presidency with the lost year of 2020 and the Biden presidency of 2021 is to recognize how the Democrats took the downturn from a pandemic, instituted policies that made it worse and then claimed to have the cure (the only thing it cures is their own lust for power).

Exactly like Biden just did with Afghanistan, they took a bad situation, made it worse by asserting false choices, and then demanded credit for fixing things that they didn't fix.

The Kervorkians have returned.

Life is always predicted by a Monty Python movie or sketch. If most of you are seeing the "Bring out your dead!" scene from "Quest for the Holy Grail", you are part of my tribe. In my analogy, America is the old man who says "I'm not dead yet!" and "I'm getting better!" Biden is the guy who tosses the "dead" man on the cart and the Democrats are the Dead Collector who eventually whacks the old guy on the head and takes the ninepence.

My message to America is this: Be patient. Don't panic. America still has good fundamentals. Don't start selling your stock in America...and for God's sake, fire your Democrat Kervorkian brokers immediately!

[Narciso]

band of pirates, is my chosen metaphor, who is wearing the squid tentacles is your guess,

[Neo]

Taliban fighters upset, feel betrayed that US military left non-working helicopters: report
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taliban-fighters-upset-feel-betrayed-that-us-military-left-non-working-helicopters-report/ar-AANZ8Oa?ocid=Peregrine

I thought this must be a BabylonBee story, but no

[James D.]

Humility is in short supply these days.

People with humility don't impose sweeping, society-wide emergency orders for a year and a half (and counting).

[Melinda]

Wilmore Dam is failing in Central PA, not far from Johnstown. Yes, that Johnstown.

[Narciso]

lol

https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2021/09/01/the-bulwarks-jim-swift-is-just-so-disappointed-and-disgusted-about-what-happened-to-the-babylon-bee/

[Pinandpuller]

Did Ralph Northam roll out those posthumous pardons for the rapists because not even dead felons are allowed to vote for Democrats?

[anonamom]

Mask article cited above--not a single RCT supporting masks. All sort of "should" "may" "seems".

Here is an article with TEN RCTS that show cloth masks Don't do a damn thing to prevent Covid infections

https://www.city-journal.org/do-masks-work-a-review-of-the-evidence

[suburbangal]

While the watch checking and Beau references were not good, at least he was less obnoxious than his comments to the families of the Benghazi disaster.

[suburbangal]

also wondering, why would it not be better policy to allow non-sick children to contract Covid at a young age, rather like the old days (before vaccines) for mumps and chicken pox--both less serious when contracted young.

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Michael Smith
16m ·
From November of 2019 - seems pretty relevant in light of Biden's "catastrophic success" with the exit from Afghanistan:
The most dangerous aspect of what the Democrats have done over the past 3 years ((and are continuing to do) isn’t really the process or the damage they have done to our governing institutions – it is that they have actively encouraged and condoned actions which, in the Obama years, would have had them screaming for prison sentences and executions.
Let us not forget that, in the first 5 years of his two terms, President Obama purged almost 200 senior officers – one in particular stands out in my memory, the case of Gen. Carter Ham who was relieved as head of U.S. Africa Command after only a year and a half because he disagreed with orders not to mount a rescue mission in response to the Sept. 11, 2012, attack in Benghazi.
“Purge” might be too harsh a term – in reality, it was made clear that key military leaders, mostly colonels – those lined up in rank to replace outgoing generals – would have to bend the knee to the Obama policies of “strategic patience (i.e. doing nothing and saying they did something). In contrast to the recent actions of Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who readily trotted to Capitol Hill to testify against a sitting president because he didn’t agree with policy, these officers respected the chain of command, then quietly and honorably resigned their commissions and took their careers in other directions.
Let us also remember that dissent was so criminalized during the Gilded Age of Obama, the officials at the Missouri State Fair banned a rodeo clown – for life – for the horrid and unspeakable crime of entertaining spectators during a bull riding contest while wearing an Obama mask.
No, it isn’t so much that the Democrats are abusing the oversight function of the House or that they have bastardized the impeachment process and turned it into a political weapon – it is that they are creating an aura of righteousness around the Deep State and its minions as if, as the NYT opined, these benevolent and munificent people only have our best interests in mind.
Such outright and tacit approval of Deep State power will eventually destroy any semblance of Lincoln’s “Government of the people, by the people and for the people” because it sanctions the Deep State to operate independently, by its own rules, for its own benefit and protects its members from scrutiny and consequences.
In my observations of both current events and history, it appears to me that the actions of the Democrat Party are pushing us backward and toward a government of Boss Tweed and Tammany Hall, a return to the spoils system where only those who agree with the precepts and policies of the ruling party burrow into the bureaucracy.
Some would say we are already there, that the spoils system was never truly eliminated. Each day that passes, I am more in agreement with what President Ronald Reagan said – the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.”

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Michael Smith
5m ·
Biden has always thought of himself as the smartest person in the room, even when he wasn't alone in a room.
In true Dunning-Kruger fashion, the thing he thinks he is the smartest about - foreign policy - there exists exactly zero evidence he knows anything about.
He's like the mythical post turtle - the turtle that winds up on the top of a fence post and everybody wonders, "How in the hell did that turtle get up there?"
I think Biden was always viewed as an affable, harmless fraud and screwup that people put up with because he was a valuable stooge.
He was sort of fun to have around, one of those people you wanted to grab a beer with after work on Friday just to see what lie they would tell about themselves this week. Everybody knew Biden was lying, but he never had a clue everybody knew. Still doesn't.
They liked him anyway, even just for the entertainment value.
He was so harmless, they gave him a VP slot as a prize for longevity and being a good soldier but I really don't think anybody ever expected to be in a situation where the primary choices were so bad, he looked good.
Which makes it even clearer that Kackles Harris was picked for her skin color. They needed any angle to push him across the line.
Nobody every wanted him as President, and yet, here he is.
Now that he has been challenged, like the liar in the bar, he is going to double down to prove just how smart he is.
And America will be the worse for it.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

I'm going to chip in here one the suicide bombing and the purported car bomb that was intercepted.

1 - How do you target a single individual among a mass of people crowding the gates to the Kabul airport? It is likely impossible.

2 - they showed a burned out car which was supposed to have been the VBIED that the ginsu bomb destroyed. The car was burned out but was not shredded the way a ginsu bomb would work, especially in light of the photos of Suleimeini's assassination.

There were also conflicting reports of a family that was hit by the bomb.

So with the track record of outré government of late, I am very skeptical.

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Woman stops 12 ft gator with .22 pistol!

"Florida Woman Stops Alligator Attack Using a small .22 caliber Ruger Pistol." Another good reason to have a concealed weapons permit.

This is a story of self-control and marksmanship by a brave, cool-headed woman with a small pistol against a fierce predator.

Here's her story in her own words: "While walking along the edge of a pond just outside my house in the Villages discussing a property settlement with my soon-to-be ex-husband, and other divorce issues, we were surprised by a huge 12-ft alligator which suddenly emerged from the murky water.

It began charging us with its large jaws wide open. She must have been protecting her nest because she was extremely aggressive.

"If I had not had my little Ruger 22 caliber pistol with me, I would not be here today!

Just one shot to my estranged husband's knee cap was all it took.

The gator got him easily, and I was able to escape by just walking away at a brisk pace.

The amount I saved in lawyer's fees was really incredible and his life insurance was also a big bonus!"

[Dave (in MA)]

My town has reinstituted a mask mandate effective until 12/07, so no indoor breathing until Pearl Harbor Day.

[clarice]

https://kaus.substack.com/p/california-cantorquake

[Thomas Collins]

Kim Janey has reinstituted indoor public space mask kabuki in Boston, Dave (in MA). There is majority noncompliance in the common areas of my apartment building. Today I boarded an elevator in the building with a mask wearing Karen. In a censorious tone, she snapped "Mask!" Being an amiable sort, I pulled out a mask from my pocket and, in a friendly voice, said I would put one on out of respect for her. Not satisfied with my response and action, she snapped "Masks required!" In a still respectful but more formal tone, I noted that I did not consider a Kim Janey pronouncement, absent city council action and with no public hearing, necessarily constituted a requirement. The part of her face that I could see became flush as she intoned in a censorious manner "Mandated! It's the law!" I kindly noted to her that I am a lawyer and wasn't asking her for legal advice. Her body stiffened up. Happily, before she could say anything else, the elevator came to my floor and I exited the elevator without further discourse. Interestingly enough, the one law enforcement officer with whom I was on an elevator since Empress Kim's edict not only did not hassle me about my maskless face, but also did not have one on himself. I am hoping I see Karen again to see whether she has any other insights to offer me.

[Melinda]

John Wick 😈✏️
@imUrB00gieman
What The Biden Admin won’t share with America: Afghan refugees fleeing to Iran.
The Taliban are so fuckinh crazy these #Muslims are willing to take their chances crossing mountains into IRAN of all places. 🤦🏻‍♂️

https://twitter.com/imUrB00gieman/status/1433121351426981889

[Marlene]

Steph @ 3:02... I read your comment to hubby. He's cracking up. We'll get together soon! We need another week to get settled, especially with a sick dog.

[Melinda]

TheLastRefuge
@TheLastRefuge2
State Dept Admits The Majority of Afghans and SIVs Who Helped us Did Not Evacuate, So Who Are These 116,000 Afghans We Evacuated
zpr.io/pB2rdHSvszZJ

https://twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1433168297910996993

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/09/01/state-dept-admits-the-majority-of-afghans-and-sivs-who-helped-us-did-not-evacuate-so-who-are-these-116000-afghans-we-evacuated/

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Sounds good Marlene. Can't wait to see our new permanent residents!!

[Narciso]

of course the simpsons, a long time ago had an episode which prefigured the recent fustercluck, the school had tried to sneak a look at some national park, they were siphoning gas, children were left behind, on principal skinner's watch,

[Jane]

I too loved your 3:02 Steph! It is so nice to laugh these days.

[Melinda]

Tornado on the ground in Ft. Washington, PA.

Saw earlier one went through Annapolis, MD.

[sbwaters]

Musing:

If Joe Biden, not Trump, indicates the Executive Branch has usurped too much authority from the Legislative and Judicial Branch, and

If Nancy Pelosi indicates that partisan Speakership has usurped to much authority from Congressional representatives, then

What changes need to be made to re-balance the Constitution without changing it.

Suggestions:
* Look for your news elsewhere than the #NYTimes, alphabet networks, and @AP.

* Elect only a representative that will hogtie the authority of the speaker.

* Stop Christmas tree bills and require that bills be limited in scope, and named consonant to their scope.

* Expand what constitutes a Bill of Attainder to include costly lawfare.

* Limit congressional subpoena power to require bi-partisan support or a vote of the whole House.

* Limit the number of officials that require advise and consent, but allow them to be fined for lying to Congress.

* Clean out and refocus the DOJ, the FBI, and the Intel agencies.

* Fine and jail for agency leadership lying, misleading other officials.

* Remove current military leadership and restrict the revolving door to contractors.

* Reduce the scope of federal government to that specified in the Constitution.

* Allow votes of no confidence for press secretaries (A vote of no confidence in the President would take a change to the Constitution.)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

If you did the second to last one first you wouldn't have to do any of the other ones.

[henry]

Nice starter list, sbw

[Melinda]

NWS Tornado
@NWStornado
Tornado Warning continues for Chesapeake City MD until 6:15 PM EDT

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1433189595059867648

Chief Warrant Officer Pleads Guilty in International Navy Bribery and Fraud Scandal

https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/chief-warrant-officer-pleads-guilty-international-navy-bribery-and-fraud-scandal

[7th Fleet & Singapore]

[Jim Eagle]

I am to tired of Afghaimania and Bidenfloppy.

We all know the man is a mess and his handlers may be more so.

I have no idea how we survive his fuck ups for the next 3 years, unless there are true patriots in the armed forces but I doubt it coming from there.

Where do we go from here?

[Melinda]

Soooo, who was on the planes?

Josh Rogin
@joshrogin
Out of the "120,000" people the Biden admin says were evacuated from Afghanistan, only about 8,500 were Afghans, @NBCNews reports. That means tens of thousands of Afghans got left behind. Disgraceful. nbcnews.com/news/world/sma…

https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1433101151663230980

[Jim Eagle]

To post photos, I am using but it doesn't seem to work. Any ideas?

[Melinda]

Margot Cleveland
@ProfMJCleveland
I love being able to read a headline and "get" know exactly what the article will say (and that it will be 100% spot on!).

🇺🇸 Mike Davis 🇺🇸 @mrddmia
Check out my latest @DailyCaller piece for @Article3Project:

Liberal Judicial Activists Hoisted With Own Petard In Their Failed Attempt To Repeal Trump’s ‘Remain in Mexico’ Policy

dailycaller.com/2021/09/01/dav…

https://twitter.com/ProfMJCleveland/status/1433192855179235330

https://dailycaller.com/2021/09/01/davis-liberal-judicial-activists-hoisted-with-own-petard-in-their-failed-attempt-to-repeal-trumps-remain-in-mexico-policy/

[Narciso]

they shanghaied the ship of state, and crashed into the rocks, i'm crossing metaphors,

[sbwaters]

Wonderful read. Excellent story how locals helped former Afghans return here after their trip took a disastrous turn. http://romesentinel.com/stories/area-duo-aids-familys-return-to-us-pair-of-new-hartford-firefighters-help-ones-old-friend,120806

Hope it is not behind a paywall. :-)

[Melinda]

Almost as if something were Fused to create such a point...

Matt Taibbi
@mtaibbi
This entire CNN story about alleged white supremacist praise of the Taliban worrying officials cites exactly one anonymous online quote on Instagram: amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/09/01…

https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1433191942007963654

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/09/01/politics/far-right-groups-praise-taliban-takeover/index.html

[The Compleat Wrap Up Smear]

[Narciso]

didn't this start with michelle goldberg

[Melinda]

United States News Block
@USNewsBlock
TAKE COVER FOLKS

Mullica Hills, NJ

pic.twitter.com/za1DtKq5VV

https://twitter.com/USNewsBlock/status/1433198765591220226

[Narciso]

does the grift train recover this much absurdity

https://mobile.twitter.com/billroggio/status/1433133154873847808

[Davod]

Melinda - They already signed up for the Democratic Party.

[Melinda]

Dissonance doesn’t pay for itself, you know…

[Narciso]

nuke it from orbit

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/npr-trashes-free-speech-a-brief-response

[Narciso]

he was the defense secretary when al queda was getting it's running shoes on, so little surprise. not even a quelle

[Davod]

Just finished watching an interesting movie Fifteen minutes of War. It is based on real events, the 1976 hijacking of a school bus in Djibouti and what was to become the French CIDG killing the terrorists by simultaneously shooting all five.

https://www.amazon.com/15-Minutes-War-Alban-Lenoir/dp/B07VVMV72T

[Narciso]

yes they are a tough lot, the paras fought 16 years in indochina and algeria, the political leadership let them down, including degaulle

[Narciso]

circling back

https://thefederalist.com/2021/09/01/why-wont-the-pentagon-name-the-high-profile-terrorists-allegedly-killed-in-the-u-s-drone-strikes/

[Narciso]

like night follows day,

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9948221/Mitch-McConnell-says-Biden-WONT-impeached-disastrous-Afghan-exit.html

[Jane]

Narc,

Given the democrat majorities he’s probably right.

[clarice]

Correct, Jane. How odd that people who complain about lying pols, take issue with a perfectly honest statement.

[Narciso]

they are tied in the senate, yes we have lagniappes like mittens, judge rheinhold and the gargoyle, (romney sasse and murkowski)

[Jane]

The Camel is there to break the tie. Hmmmm I wonder how she would vote,

[Jim Eagle]

I hope the Camel does the right thing and goes with Party. The more they fuck up the more they will regret it in the coming 3 Novembers.

What a disaster this guy has become but we all knew he was an incompentent wind bag. Gives you some idea of how the Democrats regards this country.

[sbwaters]

Narciso ... just tweeted this to an On the Media guy. The show used philosopher Richard Rorty to justify clamping down on free speech.

I tweeted:
You do realize that @OnTheMedia dissing #FreeSpeech just did away with justification for "On The Media" and the rest of #NPR. Richard Rorty said truth was a word for what a culture determined was useful. #ByeBye!

[henry]

Rorty, the end of sanity. Haven’t thought much about him since grad school.

[sbwaters]

Henry, from my I,J,& S book:

“Then why mention Rorty at all?”

“Rorty deserves credit. Thousands of college students who drudge through Philosophy 101 never reach Rorty's conclusion that each generation has the responsibility to take the best of what has gone before and validate it for itself using the best tools currently available. If one cannot take a philosopher’s word for truth, you must become your own philosopher."

[Melinda]

Do not worry, it's just a generational land grab via foundationally, financed Congressional campaigns::

Seth Hanlon
@SethHanlon
Max Baucus's oped is brazenly dishonest.

It willfully ignores that Biden's plan specifically provides that family businesses, including farms and ranches, DO NOT have to pay capital gains taxes for as long as the business stays in the family. 1/

Richard Rubin @RichardRubinDC
There’s only one former Democratic chairman of the Finance Committee out there and here he is throwing cold, cold water on the Biden tax plan. wsj.com/articles/tax-d…

Seth Hanlon @SethHanlon
5m
The last two sentences of this paragraph are just brazen lies.

Under Biden's plan, families DO NOT HAVE TO PAY CAPITAL GAINS TAX when they transfer a business to the next generation.

2/

Seth Hanlon @SethHanlon
5m
My colleague Nick Buffie and @AZBobLord explain the Biden plan here.

americanprogress.org/issues/economy…

https://twitter.com/SethHanlon/status/1433228590913658888

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tax-destroy-family-farms-ranches-small-business-step-up-in-basis-11630524254

https://twitter.com/RichardRubinDC/status/1433221255394648072

All the links, you choose.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

So Mitch is ruling out impeachment. How about tar & feathering, a NyQuil overdose or trial by combat?

[henry]

Why don’t we impeach Mitch first?

[clarice]

Why don't you just give the R's a fool proof majority in the House in 2024 and then you can impeach both him and Harris.

[Len]

"R's" and "fool proof" - if only that were a thing.

[Narciso]

he is allowing for a confy chair, with hundreds of thousands of afghans being sent to red states and swing districts, what are the odds of that,

[Narciso]

we will investigate, and all options are on the table, is that so hard to say,

[Narciso]

this is the problem, we have the lagniappes, they have the sharks, the non stimulated ones, not the ones from deep blue sea,

[jim nj]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/ida-aftermath-floods-new-york-city-updates.html

Ida Aftermath Unleashes Disastrous Flooding in New York City Area

NYC MTA subway system shutdown completely

some illustrative videos included

"On August 22, Tropical Depression Henri dumped 1.94 inches on Central Park between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m., breaking the record for the most rain in an hour in New York City. Ida bested that record just 11 days later, dropping three inches of rain between 8:51 and 9:51 p.m. on Wednesday night. The intense downpour caused flooding throughout the city, as well as the first flash-flood emergency ever to be issued in New York City."

[Dave (in MA)]

People are posting photos of flooded subways and bleating about "climate change". Because only "climate change" could cause water to flow into underground tunnels via openings at the surface.

[Narciso]

skydragons also spit volumes of water dave

https://dossier.substack.com/p/zero-covid-a-once-wildly-popular

[Narciso]

its like a whole colony of seed pods,

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/nicholas-fondacaro/2021/09/01/lemon-demands-stop-beating-biden-we-dont-know-if-people-were

and the greatest vector on the east coast, once upon a time,

[Narciso]

now the sorcerers are relying on a bangladeshi study of random villages, where there is a minimal advantage of mask advantages, but it's a totem like an infinity stones, wonder do they use hcq

[Stephanie Nene Not Your Normal Granma]

Heard a good one I'm borrowing:

"listening to Biden declare success in Afghanistan is like hearing an idiot brag about polishing a turd"

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--"R's" and "fool proof" - if only that were a thing.--

LOL
That is very funny.