Doomsday Watch Open Thread

This is not your grandfather's Red Army. Back in 1949 NATA was formed to prevent the Red Army from rolling through Berlin to Paris. The US never promised 'no first use' of nuclear weapons because there was serous doubt about the ability of the West to win a conventonal war against the USSR.

But as Ross Douthat notes, this Red Army can't even roll to Kyiv. WIth the possible (probable?) exception of the Baltic states, NATO really can afford to defend itself and US nukes can be strictly a deterrent to Russian escalation rather than something we'd use first.

Comments

[Neo]

"This is not the worst part. In the phone call in which the FSB officer assigned to the 41st Army reports the death to his boss in Tula, he says they've lost all secure communications. Thus the phone call using a local sim card. Thus the intercept."
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500970445889327118

Is this really the "A Team" of the Russian military ?

The "rot" that has set in since the disbanding of the Warsaw Pact and the Russian Federation is deep.

[henry]

Quick note: the Red Army rolled to Kiev a couple days ago and is in the process of encircling it. That the Red Army has not (yet) leveled Kiev says something as well.

Odd the NYT switched from Soviet propaganda to Ukrainian propaganda.

[Neo]

"We identified him by searching for his phone (published by Ukrainian military Intel) in open source lookup apps."

This was a problem for Israeli IDF in the 2006 Lebanon War. They were called up so quickly that may showed up with their cell phones which Hezbollah had equipment to track.

[MissMarple2]

Order from Kroger, delivered by a gal with an African/British accent, is correct. Her name is Olunfunmilayo.

[sbwaters]

If this mess settles with the U.S. substantially intact, it might be past time for a constitutional amendment to allow a majority of states to support a vote of no confidence in the federal chief executive, requiring a new election within 90 days.

This would be in addition to the current impeachment but bypass the House and Senate that currently can be co-opted by entrenched powers.

[Neo]

Nichols ruled, defendants can be charged with obstruction only if they directly attempt to affect “a document, record, or other object” in order to hamper the ability of Congress to count Electoral College votes.

Judge tosses obstruction charge against Jan. 6 defendant
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/07/judge-obstruction-charge-jan-6-defendant-00014843

[Comanche Voter]

The 1945 Russian army was profligate in its use of artillery to destroy cities. Old habits die hard, and let's see what the Russkies do this month.
Cannon cockers have no conscience.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

It will hit -4F tomorrow in Ukraine. So much for global warming. Apparently the fuel and food shortages are real and they can't charge their batteries because they have no fuel.

Biden now claims he's pumping more oil than Trump did. Trump claimed energy independence not that he pumped it. Was Joe out at the Bakken with a hard hat on that we didn't know about? The man simply cannot tell the truth.

And while gas prices rise they want to push their green agenda. Sick bastards.

That name sounds Nigerian, MM. Hard workers except for the sons of bankers who passed away in tragic submarine accidents and need help transferring 40 gazillion dollars.

[Davod]

Neo. You should know by now, that an intercepted phone call is just part of Russia's disinformation campaign.

Additionally. Re. the Russian prisoners. Is Siberia still part of Mother Russia? Because Putin is going to need somewhere to put all his returning POWs.

[Davod]

Matt. -4F. There goes the mud.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

During the winter of 1944-1945 tens of thousands of civilians died because of the terrible cold. It was one of the coldest winters in European history. The troops fighting in it had terrible casualties from exposure.

Somehow Patton pivoted his entire Army to support the flank of the troops in the Battle of the Bulge.Still one of the great

The cold drains batteries, and if it gets really cold affects motors and any lubricants needed to operate everything from artillery to tank bogies.

The Russians have long boasted of their ability to fight in terrible conditions, and yet they are still faced with attacking along the axes of the major highways.

[Neo]

I Came to College Eager to Debate. I Found Self-Censorship Instead.
by Emma Camp
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/opinion/campus-speech-cancel-culture.html

[Neo]

Opps

[matt - deplore me if you must]

The General killed today was the son of the Chief of Staff of the Russian military. That could be a black swan for Putin.

3 dead general officers in the space of a week is unheard of.

[Davod]

Courtesy of Hoyden at JOM2

https://instapundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/DEMFOSSILS.jpg

[Narciso]

paul pelosi was pushing skydragon warding to ukraine, burisma was doing the same at the annual conference in monaco, that involved dissolute tories, former german foreign ministers et al

the success of operations in the spring in that part of the world are not good, thats why they launch them in winter or the summer months

[Narciso]

Douthat doesn't know about Soviet and I presume Russian tactical strategy, they are all general ripper, there is no first use prohibition in their manuals, it's more like systema their martial art which even involves short sharp strikes,

btw, doesn't the comprehensive of these sanction, basically tell the Russian people, not just the oligarchs, they are all in the cross hairs,

[Rocco]

I'm with Tucker.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/07/tucker-carlson-outlines-the-dc-effort-to-create-a-war-against-russia/

[Narciso]

I remember I think it was peter groses bio of dulles, that lefties had cobbled together a society for the prevention of world war 3, now they are all in, and expecting not to get their 'hair mussed' I think they had earlier antipathy to dulles forrestal mccloy, from the previous adventure

[Narciso]

oh frabjous joy

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2021/10/12/insanity-wrap-the-biden-china-oil-connection-n1523248

[Narciso]

hmm

https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/an-appropriate-case-for-the-supreme?s=r

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Clausewitz Douthat and Maguire - On War; doesn't have the same euphony...nor authority.

--NATO really can afford to defend itself...--

Great. The Russkies don't march to the Euroweeny or DC timetable so the Euroweenies can keep buying windmills while we buy tanks and planes because they won't.

--...and US nukes can be strictly a deterrent to Russian escalation rather than something we'd use first.--

Greater. Russkies marching to the beat of a different drummer means we can buy windmills and sail 40 year old subs, leave 50 year old missiles in the ground and fly 60 year old bombers.

[Narciso]

for a change of pace, I saw 'a funny thing on the way to the forum with zero mostel and phil silvers, the former ran into a spot of trouble, back during the last time of 'chilling winds'

[Narciso]

science fiction is so insightful, from voght

Czinczar walked forward until he was standing directly in front of her. Something of his barbarous origin, so carefully suppressed until now, came into his manner. A hint of sneer, the contempt of a physically strong man for decadence, a feeling of genuine basic superiority to the refinement that was in Lydia. When he spoke, he showed that he was consciously aware that he was granting mercy:

[Narciso]

furthermore

"Old woman," he said, "I am letting you go because you did me a great favor a few years ago, when you maneuvered your son, Lord Tews, into the, what did he call it, Lord Advisership. That move, and that alone, gave me the chance I needed to make my attack on the vast Linnan empire."

[Jane]

Rocco,

I’m with Tucker too. Watching his opening last night - (im assuming that’s what you posted) simply blew my mind!

[Rocco]

Jane, I stopped watching FOX a while back but Sundance wrote it was his opening last night so I think it's the one you watched.

I keep hearing that the big news today is Poland's decision to supply Uk with migs. But I think the big news is Zelenski ruling out at least temporarily membership to NATO.

[Rocco]

AND...he's willing to negotiate on security for the Donbass area.

[Davod]

The People's Convoy Makes Its Mark Despite Media Blackout. By Rick Moran Mar 08, 2022.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2022/03/08/the-peoples-convoy-makes-its-mark-despite-media-blackout-n1564616

[Davod]

Ace Landscape

Solar eclipse seen from the Canyon de Chelly, AZ, but you'd be forgiven for thinking it's an alien vista

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/solareclipse.jpg

[Rocco]

This might appease Putin. Nato expansion was his first priority.

Zelensky Ready To 'Discuss & Find Compromise' On Crimea, No Longer Insists On NATO Membership

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-all-latest-news-and-developments-ukraine-war-march-8

[henry]

Rocco, that hints at who’s winning. Can Douthat find his ample butt with both hands and a map?

[clarice]

henry, that was always going to be the deal. Putin needed to lose enough face and money to come to that.

[Pinandpuller]

I have 10 gallons of gas in the shed from the last crisis. I paid about $3 a gallon for it, I hope Sleepy Joe doesn’t hit me with a Capital Gains bill.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--henry, that was always going to be the deal. Putin needed to lose enough face and money to come to that.--

Not sure I understand that. Henry's point was seemingly that despite the propaganda Russia is grinding Ukraine down and Zelensky ready to compromise is evidence of that.
If so Putin isn't losing face though Russia is surely losing money along with the rest of us.
Can I send my gasoline invoices to Foggy frickin Bottom?

[Jack Lillywhite]

Putin is asshoe.

Prove me wrong.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I think everyone except Russian agents will stipulate that Putin is major league asshoe.
It's hard to think of a major country's boss [I won't stoop to calling them leaders] who is not.
The question is what are America's interests and how do we ensure they are being advanced?
They're not.
Change my mind.

[clarice]

Russia is about to default on outstanding debts; its military and military equipment (a major income source for them) look terrible; the mouse has so far kept the cat from winning. Putin has become an international pariah. He's facing lots of resistance at home, including from his rich pals whose homes, bank accounts and yachts are threatened. Not a winning hand, Iggy.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

So clarice, then why is Zelensky signaling major compromise on his enemy's specific demands and trying to cut a deal, not Putin?
The West can yap about fancy tranche's and digital this and cyber that but it still comes down to the age-old questions of who is willing to endure more pain and who has the will to win [and who is slowly and methodically achieving their objectives].
Putin stated from the outset he wanted an autonomous Donbas, Crimea [which he already has] and a neutral, non-NATO Ukraine.
If as you say that was the deal that was going to occur all along it seems odd to call Putin's the losing hand.

[MissMarple2]

Posobiec’s discussion on Bannon said this is a plot from West Wing. Seriously. How pathetic is that?

We are governed by morons.

[Narciso]

much like the deal that johnson didn't accept in 68, but nixon did in 72, when negroponte protested to kissinger about it, he was exiled to guayaquil for his troubles,

[clarice]

How do you imagine a weak Russia could possibly hold more than the Crimea and the 2 western Russified provinces, Iggy?

[clarice]

s/b Eastern Russified provinces.

[Narciso]

pirates, miss marple,

xi probably kills 2,000 Uighurs a day, and it does't stop the NBA from warming up over their bones, at Urumqi,

[Narciso]

indeed,
https://twitter.com/davereaboi/status/1501337282149699586?cxt=HHwWhMCq6beT6dUpAAAA

[MissMarple2]

Disclose.tv
@disclosetv

JUST IN - Saudi Arabia and the UAE declined to speak with Biden about countering Russia and containing a surge in oil prices, WSJ reports.
6:04 PM · Mar 8, 2022·
————————-
I knew it!

[Buckeye]

They would talk to Trump:)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--How do you imagine a weak Russia could possibly hold more than the Crimea and the 2 western Russified provinces, Iggy?--

Huh? I never said or implied he could. In fact I just said that's all he has ever been after and I believe it is.
It's what he said he was after 2 weeks ago and 20 years ago.
Would he take all of Ukraine if he could? Maybe. But he didn't react when the Baltics joined NATO and he only carved off the Russian sector of Georgia.
He hasn't been perfectly consistent but he's been a lot more consistent than Ukraine or the West. That doesn't mean i like what he's doing or approve of it, it just means that's the reality on the ground.
Since he is doing it however I can hope that whatever the outcome weakens our real enemies, as I've noted before.

[Narciso]

its rather striking the myriad ways they were peevish against these two gulf states, from the whole khashoggi kerfluffle, to defending the runaway wife of the emir, of course they went after Egypt, because Rob Malley said so,

[Melinda]

Ig,

Demilitarization of All of Ukraine (Neutral state), and denazification. I presume that includes Azovites and our biolabs that Nuland fessed up, just this afternoon, that are vulnerable in an answer to Sen. Mark O'Rubio. And perhaps what ever "research" was rumored to be going on at Chernobyl, but all the monitoring systems there have now been turned off.

So, it's anybody's guess as to what's really going on, besides unprecedented gaslighting by known media liars.

[Melinda]

Nuland clip:

Shehzad Younis
@shehzadyounis
US is working with Ukraine to prevent biological research facilities from falling into the hands of Russians — Nuland pic.twitter.com/onrqFclF9W

https://twitter.com/shehzadyounis/status/1501300844649615362

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1501299521439125510/pu/vid/1280x720/RAufVeZN7JRCwYh-.mp4?tag=12

[Rick Ballard]

Mel,

What's really going on is Russians are being forced to pay almost $1.40 per gallon for gas today.

That'll teach 'em.

[Melinda]

And a gold standard Ruble. That'll teach 'em.

[Buckeye]

What's really going on is Russians are being forced to pay almost $1.40 per gallon for gas today.

When you produce all that you need……

[Narciso]

they can make rubble bounce, when they came at grozny in 94, they came at it from four axis, it's about 60 miles from sundza which was their main staging area

[Narciso]

hence they didn't need a 40 mile long convoy,

[Davod]

"...only carved off the Russian sector of Georgia."

Hmm. Where have we seen that before?

[Narciso]

the honking still terrifies small children

https://www.theepochtimes.com/freedom-convoy-organizer-tamara-lich-released-on-bail_4322393.html?utm_source=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-03-08-1&utm_medium=email&est=vGpMSxprYcTtt4Sbi3zctq2rkl1VcKAm4yetyLoo7jN3HGHnbeA6oT6bT1Bwe0Wm

[Pinandpuller]

That’s weird, because about 40,000 Russian churches were looted, burned or turned into barns and garages by the Bolsheviks:

“The 44-year-old comedian-turned-president told the Times of Israel in 2020 that he had an "ordinary... Jewish upbringing", explaining "most Jewish families in the Soviet Union were not religious."

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220304-zelensky-invokes-judaism-to-rally-support-for-ukrainian-cause

[Davod]

What does this mean?

"they can make rubble bounce"

[Narciso]

they can destroy, or substantially devastate metropolis, in chechnya in syria, when they put their mind to it,

[Narciso]

yes well, don't do that again,

https://www.blacklocks.ca/flag-frozen-accounts-for-life/

[Davod]

Ace Greek Landscape

"I thought I was being punked but apparently this is real, and one of the six complexes built on vertiginous pillars of stone at Meteora, Greece. The site might jog your memory as one of the monasteries there, the Monastery of the Holy Trinity, was the site of the climax of the James Bond film For Your Eyes Only (where it was called, fictitiously, "St. Cyril's").

I think the one pictured is the same one pictured here, St. Stephen, which became a nunnery."

I thought I was being punked but apparently this is real, and one of the six complexes built on vertiginous pillars of stone at Meteora, Greece. The site might jog your memory as one of the monasteries there, the Monastery of the Holy Trinity, was the site of the climax of the James Bond film For Your Eyes Only (where it was called, fictitiously, "St. Cyril's").

I think the one pictured is the same one pictured here, St. Stephen, which became a nunnery.

[Davod]

More similar landscapes:

https://www.valantism.gr/Photos-by-location/Meteora/

[Davod]

They've always been able to do that. I think the closeness to Europe is one reason they didn't do it immediately.

[Davod]

Here's the link for my 7:50

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/topofthecolumn.jpg

[Davod]

Narciso. WTF!!!!!!!!!!!

[Davod]

How long before the international negotiators come up with the worst possible deal for the Ukrainians.

[Narciso]

thats their superpower, their infinity stone,

[MissMarple2]

That monastery showed up as proof of aliens helping build things on one of those UFO videos on YouTube.

[Rocco]

Morons!

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/08/blinken-and-biden-fold-pentagon-rejects-poland-offer-for-united-states-to-start-world-war-iii/#comments

[bubarooni]

A Russian take on the current situation:

[bubarooni]

I'll have to use a smaller pic next time but you can still open it by right clicking and then opening the image.

[Davod]

MM2. Must be false, as I never saw it on the X-Files.

[bubarooni]

Anyway, according to that map the Donbass forces are cutoff and the western and eastern pincers around Kyiv are getting closer.

There is still a great deal of open ground between the northern and southern fronts, lots of room to make a fighting withdrawal to the west for the non Donbass forces.

[Rocco]

Well, if the creek don't rise and the Good Lord's willing and there ain't no nukes, I'll cya tomorrow, nite all.

[Davod]

Free ride (8)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500758366586642437

[Davod]

Cool sugar glider jump (8)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500868391971835910

[Davod]

Dog saves a dog (15)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500897851466989580

[Davod]

The aurora borealis seen over Swede 1:22).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500947089571909635

[Davod]

Kitty Massage (10)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1501256436327731202

[Davod]

The tortoise and the hare (10)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500644904644587520

[Davod]

The speed of a mountain goat (12)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500470574589562881

[Davod]

If you see him, it's already too late (7)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500524107271655433

[Davod]

.If you see him, it's already too late (7)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500524107271655433

[Davod]

Every living thing is happy when it is loved...(14)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500897344291749888

[Davod]

Mission impossible (14)

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500871395680653318

[Neo]

BREAKING: NYT reporter says there were ‘a ton of FBI informants’ among the people who attacked the Capitol
https://mobile.twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1501369508698759169

[MissMarple2]

Text from my oldest grandson tonight:

”Is Biden the worst president we’ve ever had, even worse than Carter? I think so!”

I am so proud! 😋

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Ig,

Demilitarization of All of Ukraine (Neutral state), and denazification.--

Yeah, a neutral Ukraine is the overarching theme and Zelensky is, I believe, beginning to see that is going to be his only option as it should have been from the start if he didn't want Ivan in his lap.

[Davod]

Neo. Obviously, that's the only reason there wasn't a full grown insurrection. I thought that might be the case when buffalo man's reinforcements didn't arrive (pun).

[bubarooni]

MM, tell your grandson the Jimmy only had 4 years to f things up and did a remarkable job.

Obama had 8 years to f things, was remarkably persistent in his efforts in f'ing things up and thus in the long term remarkedly out f'ed things up more than Jimmy.

The truly remarkable thing is that Joe has out done both in f'ing things up in an even worse manner in only 14 months.

[Davod]

IR. Your 9:36 reads like BS.

[Davod]

MM@. Heartening news.

[Davod]

The truth hurts.

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/156758388_10225350785259433_6639956794336705364_n.jpg

[Davod]

Ace's Tonight's ONT has been brought to you by God Spelled Backwards.

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/3%208%2022%20brought.jpg

[bubarooni]

I think Ig has point.

The Ukranians where pushing for EU membership and NATO membership since their 2019 constitutional amendments.

You can hardly blame them after the 2014 takeover of Crimea and the situation that developed in the Donbass region with two breakaway provinces supported by Russia.

I think the Russians have made NATO membership a red line but I'm not sure that EU membership was the same bright line for Russia.

I always thought the Ukranians could have made a wise trade by saying 'Give us EU membership, we will drop NATO and be non aligned and give the Luhansk and Donetsk regions the semi-autonomous status agreed to under Minsk II.'

I think the Russians would benefited from such a deal economically and would have accepted it.

Now the Ukranians are having a lap dance with a bear.

I am not saying they deserve but it could've worked out differently if they had adjusted at least their short term national aims.

The Russians have made their long term national aims and the red lines in it blatantly and vitriolically public for twenty years.

[sbwaters]

Saaaaay! The Swiss have stopped being neutral. Maybe Ukraine could become the new Switzerland!

[bubarooni]

I also think that Ukraine being willing to parley now is that they are in the process of being defeated.

I think they are inflicting pain on the Russians but that the Russians are conducting war the way that Russians conduct war, brutal and methodical.

They are not going to wage a public affairs campaign with a General Schwarzkopf giving a briefing every day for the media showing some dumb schmuck who is crossing some bridge getting blown up with a precision guided munition.

They are gonna just plod on bombing and breaking stuff until they find a spot where they can break thru and execute their plan.

If the war drags on, the worst is yest to come for both sides. The worst thing that can happen is that they don't break thru and end the war.
In that case, the cities of Ukraine will suffer the worst.

[bubarooni]

sbw, if it keeps they Russkies from blowing up your cities it might be worth it.