JustOneMinute

Happy Veterans Day!

As we salute our veterans let us also remember the 100th anniversary of the Allied victory over Kaiser Soze and the Germans. That victory was made possible in part by the courage of the brave men and women flying Spitfires over England.

 

Football Saturday

It's a football Saturday and a Happy Birthday to the USMC so what better time to explain my non-slef-explanatory profile pic?

I'm hazy on the year but the young lady in the middle is one of my darling daughters. To her left is a friend of hers and the family, and uncharacteristically positioned off on the right is a cousin of their host for a weekend in New Orleans quite a while ago.

So let's have a football story while we chat about a couple of Marines. My buddy was a Marine Corps officer back in the late 60's. On this particular weekend he was meeting up with his cousin James, a younger Marine who would one day make corporal. The two of them were headed off to the Orange Bowl to watch this new-ish event called the "Super Bowl". The game was not a sell-out so their plan was to scoop up some tickets outside in the parking lot. That part of the plan went fine.

However, as they intrepid pair headed towards the entrance young James readjusted his equipment and - crash, splash - dropped the bottle of Scotch that was going to keep their spirits boosted through the day.

"James!" exhorted my friend. "What are we going to do now, watch the game? What kind of a Marine are you anyway?"

The pep talk continued a bit longer, with energy and conviction. However, the game must go on and the mission was not a total fail. "Drink the Scotch, don't drop it" did become a bit of family advice for quite some time thereafter, or so I am told.

So away we go for Football Saturday. Roll, Tide, Shake down the thunder, or whatever.

Chasing Headlines On Gun Policy

Another mass shooting prompts another call for gun control legislation that has little to do with the recent attack, is unlikely to accomplish much, and is driven by headlines rather than the real problem of gun violence. So, business as usual.

The "Let's Do Something" crowd:

Democrats Plan to Pursue Most Aggressive Gun-Control Legislation in Decades

Focus spurred by an incoming class of lawmakers with ‘F’ NRA ratings who campaigned on the issue

The Dems may have the votes to push something through the House and good for them. The Senate will be a tougher row to hoe and with five conservative justices, a dramatic new understanding of the 5-4 Heller decision on self-defense is not likely (obviously, with Merrick Garland there Heller would be re-interpreted into meaninglessness by five liberals).

Jacob Sullum of Reason points out that the mass shooter in California bought a handgun legally (he may have used an illegal yet widely available extended magazine). He also was a candidate for a Gun Violence Restraining Order, but the CA authorities did not pursue that.

As to chasing headlines - per the Gun Violence archive's expansive definition of "mass shooting", there have been 328 mass shooting deaths in 2018 (Their database can be downloaded and summed.) If I am following, the WaPo applies a more restrictive definition to the same database and totals 68 mass shooting deaths in 2018.

Either way, that is set against over 12,000 gun deaths (other than suicide) in 2018. Mass shootings drive headlines but they are less than 3% of gun deaths, even with the expansive count; per the WaPo criteria, they are 0.6% of gun deaths.

So why the focus on trying to control extreme outliers? I guessed at it last spring:

IMHO, what remains true is that many people have examined their lives and concluded that they are:

(a) not involved with criminal activity, especially drug-related;
(b) not in an abusive domestic relationship,
(c) not suicidal, and
(d) not living in a crime-ridden neighborhood

For those fortunate many, the most visible remaining risk of gun violence is a random shooting at a mall, theater, or (for kids and young adults) school.

Mass shootings may not be the best place to look if the goal is to cut into that 12,000 figure. But most gun homicides are done by handguns and frequently involve urban ethnics. The politicians most comfortable with more gun control are generally least comfortable with 'Stop and Frisk', locking up young black men, and generally cracking down on our city streets, so there is a tendency to push irrelevant feel-good legislation such as an assault weapons ban. Banning handguns? Probably violates Heller, probably can't be meaningfully enforced, probably can't pass any legislative body anywhere (CA and NY don't even they).

That said, I welcome a national debate, even if it is likely to be as brain-dead as the last one. The Gun Violence Restraining Order is still a good idea, if people would just use it.

Mueller With Momentum

More Resistance Porn? Benjamin Wittes says its too late to slow the Mueller Express.

His Point Six may induce a dmagaing level of eye roll from any righty familiar with the "investigation" into Hillary's emails. Take care

Sixth, corrupting the Justice Department is harder than you think.

To be fair, after watching Loretta Lynch and Barack Obama cover for Hillary's misdeeds (and the President used her email too, so the cover-up had plenty of motivation) or the FISA waltz with Carter Page I don't think corrupting the Justice Department is that hard.

Darn That Senate! An Urban Party Lacks Rural Appeal

Dylan Matthews of Vox discovers that the Democratic urban appeal plays poorly in rural states, which still get two Senate seats.

The Senate is a huge problem for Democrats

And it’s not going to get better soon.

Despite a great night in House elections, Democrats have lost ground in the Senate. Depending on what happens in Florida and Arizona, the party will hold anywhere between 46 and 48 seats in the US Senate. Any of those options represents a net loss for the party, which currently holds 49 seats.

That’s bad enough for the party in the near term. But it’s worse in the medium run. This year’s losses mean that Democrats will have a very hard time retaking the Senate in 2020.

Before the election, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich noted that with a 52-48 Senate in Republicans’ favor, Democrats in 2020 would need to hold on to Doug Jones’s seat in Alabama, defeat both Susan Collins in Maine and Cory Gardner in Colorado, and pick up a seat in a red state by ousting at least one of Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Jon Kyl in Arizona (who’s not seeking reelection), or David Perdue in Georgia. (They’d need one less if they also take the presidency.)

...

The upshot is clear: Democrats will probably remain in the minority in the Senate until at least 2022. That failure will have grave consequences not just for the prospects of future progressive legislation, like Medicare-for-all or action on climate change, but also for the next few decades of the federal judiciary.

Mr. Matthews duly notes that if Republicans hold the Senate in 2020 the outlook for a successful wave of progressive legislation from President Sanders and VP Ocasio-Cortez dims a bit. Doncha love it when Vox is your go-to good-news source?

Part of the Dem problem is that they have lost legacy seats in states that are currently viewed as Red in Presidential elections:

Why retaking the Senate might be structurally difficult for Democrats

Democrats used to rely heavily on seats in red states — not just swing states like Ohio or Iowa, but deep-red states like the Dakotas and Arkansas — for their Senate majority. They don’t anymore, and the Senate map looks increasingly identical to the presidential map. 2016 was the first year in the history of direct Senate elections that every state’s Senate election outcome matched its presidential outcome. That can mean only bad things for Democrats’ viability in the Senate in the medium to long run.

 

Democrats’ losses in 2018 were concentrated overwhelmingly in deep-red states. Republicans flipped Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota, none of which are normally competitive for Democrats in national elections (flukes like Obama’s 2008 win in Indiana aside), but where Democrats could compete because of popular incumbents from a less polarized age. Similar things happened in 2010 and 2014 in states like Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, and Alaska, and the 2010 losses weren’t reversed in 2016; indeed, in most cases, like Arkansas and North Dakota, Democrats didn’t even really try to reverse the losses in 2016.

Until the emerging Democratic majority moves out of urban centers and repopulates flyover country this will be a problem for the Dems. And there are some issues - gun control springs to mind - where urban voters and rural voters are unlikely to get on the same page.

Now, there are political theorists who believe the goal of a political party should be to figure out the rules and deliver a message that wins elections so they can implement their policy preferences. Others seem to think that if quirks in the current rules prevent a national majority from having its way, it is the rules than need changing, not the message. Hmm.

Since it's a Football Friday let's go with a dumb football analogy. The Jacksonville Jaguars have an impressive defense and a quarterback who couldn't hit the side of a barn if he were throwing from inside. What should they do?

Well, whinging about the strict rules on defensive pass interference and lobbying to change them might provide a boost to their prospects. Or they could get a decent quarterback! OK, if that was easy, plenty of other teams would do that too.

Still, developing a national message that is acceptable both to their big Dem donors on the coasts and the rubes in flyover country they are trying to sway should not be an insurmountable problem. OK, its a bit of a challenge since there seem to be progressive thought leaders who want to disempower and then disembowel white men, and white women if necessary. But let's just describe that as creative tension. Or oh-so-clever irony.

Do not let me overlook Mr. Matthews' conclusion:

It’s not obvious, to me, how Democrats get out of that bind.

I love a mystery.

What If They Gave A Mass Protest And Nobody Came?

Rachel Maddow has been tweeting about Save Sessions protests nationwide at 5PM local time on Nov 8.

I can find some local coverage but neither the NY Times nor MSNBC seem to have mobilized the fawning pom-pom brigades we have come to expect in this era of Resistance 'journalism'. Baffling! Did some people miss this memo? Did they miss the memo about the Big Government conspiracy that had us resetting their clocks last Sunday?

I bet there will be more coverage eventually, and I hope to miss it! Steel Curtain tonight!

Shooting In California / No Use Of California's 'Gun Violence Restraining Order' Law

The LA Times covers the horrific shooting there. This detail suggests, especially with 20/20 hindsight, a preventive intervention, now legal under CA law, could have led to the shooter's guns being pre-emptively confiscated:

Ian David Long, 28, lived in Newbury Park, not far from the club where he threw smoke bombs and rained bullets on a crowd of more than a hundred people Wednesday night.

Sheriff Geoff Dean said his department had had several interactions with Long, including a call to his home in April for a complaint of disturbing the peace. Deputies at the time said Long was irate and acting irrationally, Dean said. They called in mental health professionals to evaluate him, and they concluded he did not need to be taken into custody.

David French wrote on Gun Violence Restraining Orders, also known as GVROs andRed Flag laws, after the Parkland school shooting in Florida. I talked a bit about the California system at the time.

Presumably we will see coverage and second-guessing on the non-use of this law.

AS FOLLOW UP QUESTIONS: What proportion of people subject to a law enforcement mental health exam go on to commit a violent crime in the following year? ON a country-wide basis, was this shooter one in ten, one in a thousand, or what?

Secondly, are the police trained to consider a GVRO in the context of a mental health exam? What do they look for? Its easy to be an ex-post genius but I would have thought a young male with weapons training, anger management issues and a gun would fit a plausible profile.

More data on the California historical experience with this law would be helpful.

Time For Some New News

I don't know the latest but I bet it's YUUGE.

OH, SHIT: 12 dead in CA bar shooting?

We deplore this toxic masculinity and the failure of these "men" to respect women as empowered equals:

"There were at least 50 people that all tried getting up at once and running out the back door. I ended up getting caught in the ground and stumbled over by multiple people," Whittler said. "I got hit in the head by a stool that was being picked up to throw through a window, until some guy came up behind me and grabbed me and said, 'Get up. We have to go.'"

She said multiple men around her blocked the group with their bodies "ready to take a bullet for every single one of us."

OK, we don't deplore this. Most guys would do the right thing, which is why this is funny.

MORE CRAZY: Antifa at Tucker Carlosn's home. Even some libs object, so there's that.

OK, avoiding headlines in the morning looks like a winning strategy.

IT WILL ONLY HURT WHEN SHE LAUGHS: The Notorious RBG falls and fractures three ribs. She walked this off in 2012 but she is now 85. Obviously, pneumonia is a major concern. Not a doctor, but it must be a positive sign that she spent the night at home and finally threw in the towel in the morning. Best wishes for a speedy recovery.

The Supreme Court says 85-year-old Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg fractured three ribs in a fall in her office at the court and is in the hospital.

The court says the justice went to George Washington University Hospital in Washington early Thursday after experiencing discomfort overnight. The court says the fall occurred Wednesday evening.

Ginsburg was admitted to the hospital for treatment and observation after tests showed she fractured three ribs.

Ginsburg broke two ribs in a fall in 2012. She has had two prior bouts with cancer and had a stent implanted to open a blocked artery in 2014.

Sessions Out

Embattled Jeff Sessions out. Do we presume a replacement will be confirmed during a lame duck session? Mueller probably has things he wants to move on post-election - it would be nice to know who is boss is.

But forget about Russia - Sessions was aboutthe last man standing in opposition to marijuana reform:

Bucking a bipartisan trend to support less harsh tactics for drug offenders, Sessions instructed federal prosecutors to file the most serious charges possible, and to seek the death penalty when appropriate. He moved to pull back on the department’s work on reforming abusive police departments.

And while not exactly declaring war on states with legal marijuana — still an illegal drug under federal law — Sessions made clear he was eager to roll back the growth of the cannabis industry.

I think we can do better.

TWEETING: From the boss:

We are pleased to announce that Matthew G. Whitaker, Chief of Staff to Attorney General Jeff Sessions at the Department of Justice, will become our new Acting Attorney General of the United States. He will serve our Country well....

Well, "Acting" AG.

Blue Wave Or Wave Good-bye?

When is a wave not a wave? Colby Itkowitz of the WaPo takes on the challenge of spinning last night as a "wave" win for the Dems, or else not.

Let me skip past the Dem triumphalism and get to the frowny face:

Trump tweeted that the night was a “tremendous success.” And from his vantage point, it was.

The massive repudiation of Trump that Democrats hoped for simply didn’t happen. In fact, in many states where Trump campaigned hard for Republicans, it seems the opposite occurred. He focused throughout the campaign on saving the Senate for the GOP, and it appears his efforts paid off.

And while House Democrats can now go forward with impeachment if they like, Trump is buffered by a Republican Senate that would never convict him.

Notably, the Democratic candidates who received the most national attention and fanfare lost or are on track to lose. In Georgia, even appearances by Oprah Winfrey and former president Barack Obama don’t seem to have gotten gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams across the finish line. And O’Rourke, who reached almost rock-star status (Beyoncé posed on Instagram Tuesday wearing a Beto hat!), couldn’t overtake Cruz in the end.

There is no way Trump views last night as a repudiation.

PILING ON: Newt Gingrich on how to deal with the Dem House:

“The White House should drag it out, bog it down, take the momentum away and make it go on forever,” said Gingrich. He also encouraged conservatives to foster what he believes would be counter-productive impeachment talk among Democrats. “Make it the speaker’s problem, make her deal with the nutty wing of her party.”

He says 'nutty', I say 'crazy' - we may be able to find a compromise here.

How The Democrats Can Win The White House In 2020 (And Why They Won't)

Frank Bruni jumped the gun by writing in the 2020 Presidential prospects a few days before the midterms. He offers some sensible advice from both Republican and Democratic strategists on how to unseat Trump. The Dem base can't and won't heed it, but here we go:

And this time around, assuming that nothing interrupts the president’s bid for a second term, there will be a host of additional questions and concerns. They’re peculiar to his intentionally abrasive personality, his deliberately provocative tactics and his almost mystical domination of the media.

Should his opponent join him in the mud, which is the approach that the lawyer Michael Avenatti not only recommends but models? Is it even possible to avoid such a descent? Eric Holder and Hillary Clinton apparently think not, to judge by recent public comments of theirs (“When they go low, we kick ’em,” Holder said).

But plenty of other prominent Democrats told me that the smartest strategy is to float above the muck, because campaigns are about contrasts and many Americans are desperate for something cleaner and calmer.

“There are a lot of people who are exhausted by the daily rancor that Trump has treated the country to and by this kind of tribal politics,” said David Axelrod, an architect of Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Yeah, but the crazies are just warming up. Lots of virtue left to signal!

Some Democrats even believe that an eloquent summons to civility and exhortation to move beyond rank partisanship could be the winning message, because Americans increasingly grasp the peril that we’re in — the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre was only the latest bloody illustration — and because Trump can’t ever claim to be an agent of healing.

“It’s about confronting him where he’s weakest,” said Bob Kerrey, the former senator and former Nebraska governor. “You have to say to the audience: This country is dangerously divided and it’s on the edge of something awful.”

Kerrey said that in a perfect world, a Democratic candidate would go even further than that in the primary and tell voters: “You’re going to get angry at me, because I’m going to embrace a Republican idea if it feels good. Don’t expect me to be 100 percent — 100 percent may make you happy, but it won’t pull this country together.”

I love the sound of that. I also suspect it’s a doomed fantasy.

It is a mostly-doomed fantasy. Ardent lefties loath Trump both because of his persona and his current embrace of fairly mainstream Republican positions on taxes, regulation, defense, guns and abortion. There are plenty of conservatives and centrists who oppose the Trump persona but are OK with a lot of his positions. Asking them to reject both the positions and the persona was too much in 2016 (eg, evangelicals and Gorsuch/Kavanaugh) and probably will be so again in 2020. But the base Dems will persist!

However, in a crowded field it is possible that while Spartacus et al split the Sanders wing a centrist could sneak past the Democrat base and into the White House.

A second major challenge is this - Democrats need to understand and - dare we say it - have a bit of respect for trump voters and their concerns:

And it better not sneer at Trump and condescend to his supporters. No baskets, please, and no deplorables. Midwesterners who voted for him won’t be lured back into the Democratic fold if they’re made to feel ashamed about their decision and told that they were duped.

“That would be fatal,” said Beth Myers, a prominent Republican consultant and longtime senior adviser to Mitt Romney. She wasn’t speaking as someone who wanted a strategy to dislodge Trump; she was just sizing up the situation.

She noted that most of the Democrats signaling possible candidacies “are from blue states and don’t really understand the Trump phenomenon — and that is a disadvantage. In my little liberal Democratic world in Massachusetts, people seriously can’t comprehend how this guy got elected president. But when you travel around the country, it’s very clear.”

Her liberal friends, she added, will ask her, “How can we have let this happen?” And she has to explain to them that “there are a lot of people in the country who have views different from you. This is their guy. And you need to understand that before you run someone against him. Hillary Clinton couldn’t even understand how this guy could be considered. That was a huge problem for her.”

Axelrod made the same general point to me, and I think it’s the crucial counsel. “If Democrats are going to win in 2020, it can’t be with the careless presumption that everyone who voted for Trump is a toothless, ignorant racist,” he said, adding that voters who were still reeling from the 2008 financial collapse and voters disgusted by the paralysis on Capitol Hill “viewed Trump as the kick in the ass that Washington needed. There has to be room for these voters, but if they’re shunned and belittled for having supported him in the first place, they will just be driven further into his column.”

Cue the Mission Impossible soundtrack. The many virtues of the Democratic base voters won't signal themselves, so Deplorable we are and Deplorables we will be. "Stop hating, you racist misogynistic, transphobic, homophobic, Islamaphobic hate-filled haters" will be the key Democratic message from their 'woke' base.

Bruni also identifies another major obstacle:

Standing out will require one nonnegotiable quality: the vividness to loosen Trump’s stranglehold on the media. To that end, any serious challenger has to figure out how to tell his or her story in a riveting way.

Trumps ownership of the media and ability to control news cycles makes the media adoration of Obama look like "Barry who?" coverage. Any Democrat to gain early momentum will get a media shoulder ride as the Next Great Savior, but that is a tough role to fill.

I did want to add this -: on Fox last night a panelist mentioned that the crazies had taken over the Democratic Party. That drew a sharp rebuke from (IIRC) Chris Wallace, who noted the Dems were winning House races with veterans, businessman, and centrists galore. To that end, let me pull this from the NY Times recap of the evening. First, on Pelosi:

But at a meeting of Democratic donors and strategists earlier on Tuesday, [Pelosi] signaled there were lines she would not cross next year. Attempting to impeach Mr. Trump, she said, was not on the agenda.

Nor should it be:

The Democrats’ broad gains in the House, and their capture of several powerful governorships, in many cases represented a vindication of the party’s more moderate wing. The candidates who delivered the House majority largely hailed from the political center, running on clean-government themes and promises of incremental improvement to the health care system rather than transformational social change.

A non-crazy Democrat ought to have a fighting chance against Trump even though Trump may well be running as a peace and prosperity incumbent. But I don't think "non-crazy" will describe the eventual nominee.

Bracing For The Evening News

OK, we're settling in for a long march to... well, I guess we'll all find out where when we get there.

I do think that in terms of brand extension and cross-marketing opportunities, Rachel should think about bottling her tears. The 2016 vintage would have been priceless. My goodness, late in the evening of Trump Ascendant she rambled on about uncounted votes here and a recount there and a possible landing by extra-terrestials on the Washington Mall all taking us to a Hillary victory. The look on co-anchor Brian Williams face was priceless - reflective, pentitent, and clearly revisiting the life choices that had led him to this moment.

If we can get another 2012 Megyn Kelly type moment when the Foxies got in Karl Rove's face on behalf of their Decision Desk, I will pay extra.

And remember, we are all Americans: E Deploribus Unum.

Key early results will come from states with early-ish poll closing:

• Indiana and Kentucky, where polls close at 6 p.m. ET, could offer early clues as to whether either party is making strides towards a total sweep of Congress in Tuesday's midterms.
• Early races in Florida and Virginia will also be important in showing whether the consensus view holds and Democrats take the House, while the GOP holds or adds to its Senate majority.
• Stocks could rally if there's a GOP surge— or red wave — and some strategists see a big decline if Democrats over come the odds and take both the House and Senate.

Indiana features a key Senate race: Braun (R) v. Donnelley (D) is rated a toss-up.

HOUR BY HOUR: The NY Post breaks it down. By this time the NY Times needle should be moving. And hiding!

FOX Decision Desk.

The NY Times is hiding their needles here. 

I UNDERSTOOD THERE WOULD BE NO MAPS: Yeah, that would be this Indiana. Or the other one. I guess we know why CNN never found that missing Malaysian airliner.

Grist For Something...

The 414 page Senate report on their Kavanaugh investigation has some interesting dirt but honestly - two different guys came forward with a story that amounts to "I made out with some girl that might have been Ford". In the absence of a lot more investigatory work that won't be happening, those anecdotes won't change any minds. Particularly when we can see false accusations against Kavanaugh in the same report. Flash: some people come out of the woodwork and lie.

This follow-up to the Ramirez thing, OTOH, is a real headscratcher. One wonders how the media missed it, if all it took was perusing some yearbooks. [No, of course one does not wonder.]:

Mistaken Identity at Yale? 

The report summarizes an interview with a Yale grad who said that a member of Kavanaugh’s fraternity -- who was not Kavanaugh -- had a reputation for exposing himself publicly.

The man was interviewed after Deborah Ramirez told the New Yorker that Kavanaugh had thrust his penis in her face when they were at Yale. She said she was drunk and wasn’t sure it was Kavanaugh until she thought about it for a week and spoke to her attorney. Kavanaugh vehemently denied her accusation.

The reports says the man, whose name was redacted, also provided a yearbook photo of the frat brother exposing himself.

The report says the man said he had personally witnessed the flasher expose himself at a party and that the flasher was in the same residential college as Ramirez.

Huh. Since I suggested it earlier, I have no problem with the notion that the guy who allegedly shouted out "Kavanaugh just flashed Ramirez" was the actual flasher. When we were young and flatulent that logic always applied - get in there quick with the 'false acc'. 

Away We Go!

The weather is so nice I may vote twice!

[Narrator: He's not going to vote twice.]

DO REMEMBER: Don't procrastinate, don't prevaricate - prognosticate!

And for the Turning New York Blue files: props to Crystal City in Arlington VA and Long Island City, NY:

Amazon close to deal to base second HQ in Long Island City, NY and Crystal City, Virginia-NYT

NY Met marketing mavens are no doubt wondering how to tie the Amazin's to the Amazons.

POSSIBLY RELEVANT PSA FROM TYPEPAD:

Typepad is now running over HTTPS. If you are getting a security error on your custom domain, go to Account > Domain Mapping. After loading the page, wait about five minutes, and your domain should be fixed. Still not working? Open a help ticket. 

I wouldn't guess that a typical account profile is part of a "custom domain" but then again, maybe the transition to higher security has created more glitches than they imagined. Of course, the site will be totally secure if no one can access it, so there's that.

The Prognosticator Challenge of 2018!

OK, pick nine election outcomes and win!

There are nine propositions: control of the Senate, control of the House, the winner in five Senate races and two Gubernatorial races.

Each correct pick gets the associated number of Victory Points. Picking longshots, such ask Democrats gaining control of the Senate, pays off more than safe choices like Republicans holding the Senate.

 

The ballot:

Election Eve  2018
		Victory		Victory
		Points		Points
Senate:	Republican	2.4	Democratic	12.0
House:	Republican	6.0	Democratic	3.0
Senate Races	(Rep)		(Dem)
Texas	Cruz	1.3	O'Rourke	4.0
Arizona	McSally	2.0	Sinema	2.0
Missouri	Hawley	2.0	McCaskill	2.0
Indiana	Braun	2.0	Donnelley	2.0
Florida	Scott	2.0	Nelson	2.0
Governor	(Rep)		(Dem)
Florida	DeSantis	3.0	Gillum	1.5
Wisconsin	Walker	3.0	Evers	1.5
		23.7		30.0

One Day More!

The traditional pre-election "Will this campaign ever end and whose hearts will be breaking tomorrow" open thread.

Patriot fans may as well join in and gloat. After careful study I have concluded that Tom Brady has a future as an NFL quarterback. That Rodgers kid too.

Any No-Longer-Aints fans also welcome. Geez, or Steel City. I'd encourage all the gloating football fans to join in but I'd like to hear from some New Yorkers too.

Red Storm Rising?

Clarice Feldman tries to get us ready for Tuesday, although more than most this election night will be like Jumanji -there is no "ready".

Football Saturday!

What's this week's game of the year? Gotta be Alabama (1) v. LSU (3).

Don't Shoot Even If You See The Whites Of Their Eyes... If They're Only Throwing Rocks

OK, if the caravan passing through Mexico gets as wild as the Palestinians I may backpedal but really - it they throw rocks, respond with tear gas and re-assess. My goodness, we're the United States, not the bad guys.

Believe All Alibis!

The Burkman/Wohl stage show missing their Mueller accuser met or exceeded the clown show expectations.

However, it is interesting to see the complete suspension of critical thinking once the media has picked a side:

Without an in-person accuser, Wohl and Burkman instead offered a signed affidavit from her that claimed Mueller raped her in a New York hotel room on Aug. 2, 2010.

No other evidence was given, aside from a print-out Wohl had distributed that noted Mueller had been in New York on Aug. 5, 2010. Left unsaid: That was three days after the alleged attack.

Additionally, they accused Mueller’s team of “leaking” a Washington Post story that undermined their tale. The report showed Mueller was in Washington on Aug. 2 serving a jury duty summons.

Oh, gotcha! The trip from Washington to New York takes, hmm, not days. Hours, actually. And jury duty for the head of the FBI? He'll be dismissed in five minutes, won't he?

Well, yes he will, per the story cited:

Robert Mueller dutifully doing his jury duty in D.C. Superior Court on Monday. The FBI director (with an ear-pieced security guy in tow) made it all the way into the jury box for voir dire on a gun-possession case and got a warm smile from the judge ... but he was quickly excused (the "work in law enforcement?" question seemed to do it).

Obviously that doesn't prove Mueller was in New York but being in DC in the morning hardly proves he was not in NYC that evening.

Well. The accuser was named but did a no-show. Has she been approached for her story?

Disbelieve all women!

MORE: A comprehensive and convincing Burkman/Wohl basher from John McCormack of TWS. But he mentions the "problematic" jury duty point second, after the no-show witness."

Roger Stone

The Times wonders with the rest of us just what the relationship between Trump advisor Stone and Wikileak's Julian Assange:

Roger Stone Sold Himself to Trump’s Campaign as a WikiLeaks Pipeline. Was He?

One wonders why this remains an open question two years after Trump's election. One might also wonder how many members of The Resistance consider this to be an open question.

Mr. Bannon and two other former senior campaign officials have detailed to prosecutors for the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, how Mr. Stone created that impression, according to people familiar with their accounts. One of them told investigators that Mr. Stone not only seemed to predict WikiLeaks’s actions, but that he also took credit afterward for the timing of its disclosures that damaged Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.

But at the same time, the top tier of Mr. Trump’s campaign was deeply skeptical of Mr. Stone, who has made a career of merging fact and fiction and seems to prize attention over credibility.

Whether Mr. Stone was, in fact, a trusted intermediary to WikiLeaks — or simply a master of puffery that made him appear so — remains a paramount question for Mr. Mueller’s investigators, who are examining Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential race and whether any Trump associates conspired with Moscow’s effort.

To tease out the truth, prosecutors have summoned Mr. Stone’s former employees and longtime political allies to testify before a federal grand jury in Washington or be interviewed at the special counsel’s office. Investigators asked them about a range of issues, including Mr. Stone’s relationship with WikiLeaks, his attempts during the presidential race to raise money for his political causes and whether he tried to persuade one associate not to cooperate with the inquiry.

Resist!

George Soros

The Times:

How Vilification of George Soros Moved From the Fringes to the Mainstream

Why is Soros a lightning rod? Eventually the Times kind of admits that being a huge donor to one party can have that effect:

“He’s a banker, he’s Jewish, he gives to Democrats — he’s sort of a perfect storm for vilification by the right, here and in Europe,” said Michael H. Posner, a human rights lawyer and former State Department official in the Obama administration.

Mr. Soros has given his main group, the Open Society Foundations, $32 billion for what it calls democracy-building efforts in the United States and around the world. In addition, in the United States, Mr. Soros has personally contributed more than $75 million over the years to federal candidates and committees, according to Federal Election Commission and Internal Revenue Service records.

That qualifies him as one of the top disclosed donors to American political campaigns in the modern campaign finance era, and it does not include the many millions more he has donated to political nonprofit groups that do not disclose their donors.

By contrast, the network of conservative donors led by the billionaire industrialist brothers Charles G. and David H. Koch, who have been similarly attacked by some on the American left, has spent about $2 billion over the past decade on political and public policy advocacy.

Obviously, vilifying the Koch brothers is de rigeur on the left. But does mega-donor Sheldon Adelson, who is Jewish and pro-Israel, get the same attention from the left? I would say not but don't dare me to prove it.

But *IF* Adelson is less vilified, why might that be? Well, if I were a Dem strategist looking for Scary Republican Moneymen I would pick the Kochs over Adelson for obvious reasons: The Kochs are Big Oil and the whole party can unite against that. Adelson is pro-Israel - the BDS Democrats will scream at him while waving Palestinian flags, but obviously that is not the face the party wants to present to a key part of its donor base.

Which takes us to a problem: Soros is Jewish. It is pretty clear that, regardless of how Trump really feels about neo-Nazis and anti-semites, he has done a miserable job of denouncing them and they are far too comfortable with him. (I still have flashbacks to his "Who's David Duke?" moment on the campaign trail. A younger, more embittered me, with chronic pain and a hip replacement on the far horizon. Good times!).

Consequently, Trump's critics argue he needs to take special care in choosing his words because the neo-Nazis hang on every one of them. This leads to what seem to some to be absurd double standards - the Times can headline the word "globalist" and have a columnist (Roger Cohen, possibly Jewish) who had a a column by that title but when Trump uses the same word it is an anti-semitic dog whistle. Troubling, although we have all become accustomed to rappers and those of the appropriate skin tone dropping the N-bomb while others should not.

However, how important is the rhetoric of our leaders in inciting violence? We can think back to a time when Democratic leaders were embracing Black Lives Matter and ruminating about racist, violent cops at a time when BLM nut-jobs were shooting cops. With many others, I certainly said back in Dec 2014 that people like NYC Mayor deBlasio needed to modulate their rhetoric based on their audience:

All too often when our friends on the left stage a protest it turns violent. At which point, we hear explanations about how it was hijacked by a radical fringe and we are all supposed to be surprised.

Maybe one day these leaders on the left will achieve a better understanding of their base.

Sauce for the goose I guess, although I don't see stuff like these authentic voices of urban rage on the right. Actually, do follow that link for a torrent of BLM apologists who insist that political rhetoric bears no responsibility for later violent acts. Good ammo for a 'gotcha' game, and yes, I deplore the violent imagery of "ammo". I'm imagining my Nerf gun locked and loaded, but whatev.

Mollie Hemingway had a good piece on the ebb and flow of the blame game from the MSM perspective. Sarah Palin caused the Gifford shooting, Obama/deBlasio didn't cause the various police executions and (she did not presciently predict this) Trump caused the synagogue shootings.

ERRATA: Cohen's "The Globalist" column has a 2004 headline rich with irony:

Globalist : Dirty word 'liberal' boasts a proud history

By ROGER COHEN  OCT. 27, 2004

When they came for the word "liberal" I said nothing...

Actually, he said something, but it didn't help. And eventually they came for 'globalist'.

 

Now What?

I don't know what's happening but I bet it's big.

The Sun Shines On Boston

Congrats to Red Sox Nation, their team, and their very capable front office. Weather reports indicate there will be no rain on their parade today; that will come next year when the Astros and/or Yankees take their turn meeting or exceeding expectations.

And in that "Wait'll next year" vein, 2019 should be at least as exciting as 2018, since the three above-mentioned teams are young, very deep, and (by Vegas Series odds) the three best teams in baseball. And having finally gotten under the salary cap and lightened their luxury tax penalty, the Yankees should be able to open their vast vault and wrest from the Sox the coveted "Best Team Money Can Buy" title.

Enjoy the parade, Beantown - don't get used to it.

WHILE WE'RE AT IT: That 11-3 playoff run against very good teams was impressive! Now go 11-0 next year and you've tied the 1998-99 Yankees 22-3 playoff record.

We Pause For What I Think Is A 4Chan Moment

The old adage to never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity must be kept in mind as we look at this next story but... the behavior is so dumb and the sourcing so ethereal that a 4Chan type prank seems like a plausible alternative explanation to the Conventional Wisdom being offered by the usual suspects.

Let's start with NBC News:

Mueller refers sex misconduct scheme targeting him to FBI for investigation

"We immediately referred the matter to the FBI for investigation," said Peter Carr, spokesperson for the special counsel.

Say what?!?

Special counsel Robert Mueller last week asked the FBI to investigate a possible scam in which a woman would make false claims that he was guilty of sexual misconduct and harassment, after several political reporters were contacted about doing a story on the alleged misconduct.

Multiple reporters were contacted over the past few weeks by a woman who said she had been offered money to say she had been harassed by Mueller, the special counsel who is probing possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. After investigating, according to the political website Hill Reporter, the reporters each independently determined the allegations of misconduct and harassment were likely a hoax and that it was unclear if the woman had been offered money to make the claim. The reporters then contacted the special counsel's office to report that they had been approached about the scheme.

Do note the link to The Hill Reporter. We'll come back to that.

While investigating the possibility of a hoax, the Hill Reporter's Ed Krassenstein, who was one of the reporters contacted, said he received threats, including a text message reading, "You're in over your head…. Drop this" which included his and another editor's home addresses.

Around the same time reporters began to be contacted about the misconduct allegations, Jack Burkman, a Republican lobbyist and radio host, began promoting, via his Facebook page, that he is investigating sexual misconduct and alcohol-related allegations against Mueller. On Tuesday morning he tweeted that he would hold a press conference two days later to "reveal the first of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's sex assault victims."

Jack Burkman's infamous history of dramatic exposes that never materialized is reprised briefly in the Daily Beast:

Burkman has not any offered any evidence at all of his accusations and his previous “bombshell” press conferences on other stories have become notorious flops in Washington media circles. In July, he promised that he had a whistleblower who would prove the government killed Rich. But Burkman’s witness never showed in person, instead calling in anonymously via speakerphone — a stunt that enraged Burkman’s fellow conspiracy theorists.

This isn’t Burkman’s first attempt to get publicity for a sexual assault allegation either. In late 2017, with the MeToo movement kicking off, Burkman claimed that he represented a woman who would accuse a congressman of sexual assault. But with the press on hand for the revelations, Burkman had to concede that his client refused to appear. Instead, Burkman offered everyone a “big apology” for wasting their time.

Takeaway - the guy is not credible nor does he have much judgment. Back to NBC:

Krassenstein told NBC News he reached out to the special counsel's office on Tuesday telling them what he knew about the scheme.

He also gave NBC News the phone numbers used by the woman alleging she was offered money to make the allegations, which were both disconnected.

The woman allegedly worked at the law firm Pillsbury, Madison and Sutro at the same time as Mueller in 1974. Reporters say she said she was supposed to claim the misconduct took place during that period. NBC News gave the woman's name to a spokesperson for the law firm, which is now called Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP. In a statement, the spokesperson said, "We have no record of this individual working for our firm."

Krassenstein and other journalists also pointed to Jacob Wohl, a disgraced hedge fund manager turned pro-Trump conspiracy theorist and Surefire Intelligence, a company connected to him, as being involved with Burkman's alleged plot. 

"I gave Burkman a call. I wanted to know who 'Surefire Intelligence' is. That's when he told me about Jacob Wohl," said Krassenstein. "To me, this was all a setup from somebody trying to discredit the media."

Let's pause for a moment. Notice that NBC is relying heavily on Krassenstein. The Daily Beast coverage of this story includes a link to background on the Krassenstein brothers. The gist: they are simultaneously Resistance "icons" and internet scammers. Hmm. But his notion that this is a plot targeting the media is a good one.

And who is Jacob Wohl? He is an internet presence frequently described as a 'troll'. NBC:

The allegations still took off as far-right news sites tied to Wohl and known for spreading fake news and disinformation published viral posts. Gateway Pundit, where Wohl is employed as a writer, touted their "exclusive documents" about a "very credible witness."

The Gateway Pundit put up and then took down some documents backing this story.

Surefire Intelligence had invoiced Burkman for some work they had done looking for abuse victims. Internet sleuthing done by Krassenstein links Wohl to Surefire by way of internet records found on Google, but... do note that 4Chan spoofers could make this work in the other direction: take public records associated with Wohl, build them into a new website, and let internet sleuths find the clues that lead to Wohl. NBC:

Wohl declined to comment on his involvement with Surefire Intelligence. However, his email is listed in the domain records for Surefire Intelligence's website and calls to a number listed on the Surefire Intelligence website went to a voicemail message which provided another phone number, listed in public records as belonging to Wohl's mother.

Wohl stopped responding to NBC News after being told Surefire's official phone number redirects to his mother's voicemail.

OK, embarassing. But wait!

The open-source intelligence group Bellingcat pulled apart the construction of the company's online presence. It found that someone with the email address jacob.wohl@nexmanagement.com was involved in the domain registration of the Surefire Intelligence website and that many of the LinkedIn profiles of people who reportedly worked there used stolen, edited photos of models as their profile images. One featured a photo of Israeli supermodel Bar Rafaeli. In another case, a fictitious profile of a Surefire financial investigator in Zurich had a black and white image of actor Christoph Waltz as its profile photo.

Christoph Waltz is Quentin Tarantino's favorite Nazi in "Inglourious Basterds".

That wraps up NBC.

At The Atlantic, we learn that a second woman, Jennifer Taub, also received a request to provide damaging testimony against Mueller:

But she’s not the only woman who’s come forward: Jennifer Taub, an associate professor at Vermont Law School, received an email from a man using a Surefire Intelligence email address around the same time, on October 22. “It’s my understanding that you may have had some past encounters with Robert Mueller,” he told Taub, according to the email she forwarded me on Tuesday afternoon. “I would like to discuss those encounters with you.” (Taub told me she has never had any encounters with Mueller, though she does appear on CNN at times as an expert commentator on the Mueller probe.)

So put on your 4Chan prankster cap - what are the chances that a respected law professor with several books out and regular CNN gigs is so hostile to Mueller and so cavalier about her career that she will perjure herself for, say, $50,000. (The other woman was offered $20k plus coverage of her credit card bills).

There is no chance she would have ever said yes. She might however, have gone to CNN with a story idea. And since CNN is Trump's favorite target for Fake News, the Krassenstein idea of a media-targeted spoof might gain traction.

Let's cut to the first woman. Her letter is printed at the Krassenstein site, The Hill Reporter. Key excerpts:

A little over a week ago (Oct 18) several journalists, including myself, received an email from an individual claiming to have been offered money in exchange for alleging sexual misconduct on the part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

“I was contacted via phone call by a man named Bill Christensen, who had a British accent, and said that he would like to ask me a couple of questions about Robert Mueller, whom I worked with when I was a paralegal for Pillsbury, Madison, and Sutro in 1974 (now called Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman),” the individual claimed. “I asked him who he was working for, and he told me his boss was some sort of politics guy in Washington named Jack Burkman (or Berkman… Not sure how it’s spelled)…….

….He (Bill Christensen) then offered to pay off all of my credit card debt, plus bring me a check for $20,000 if I would do one thing. In more of an effort to get him to go away than anything else, I asked him what in the hell he wanted me to do. He said that we could not talk about it on the phone, and he asked me to download an app on my phone called Signal, which he said was more secure. Reluctantly, I downloaded the app and he called me on that app a few minutes later. He said (and I will never forget exactly what it was) ‘I want you to make accusations of sexual misconduct and workplace harassment against Robert Mueller, and I want you to sign a sworn affidavit to that effect’.”

This individual said that they were a female living in Fort Myers, Florida, but she would not speak to any reporters over the phone.  Hill Reporter looked into this woman, as did many other journalists we have spoken with, and we all reached a conclusion that this was likely a hoax of some sort.  No one by the name provided lived in Fort Myers, Florida according to the numerous background checks which we ran.

Basically, at a minimum this contact gave a false name ("Lorraine Parsons") but did in fact work with Mueller at one time. More likely, her entire persona is false. In any case, no reporter was able to verify her name, Ft Myers residence, past employment at Mueller's firm, or any contact between her and either Surefire or Burkman. The reporters had an unverifiable email making unsubstantiated allegations. Media catnip!

OK, home stretch: Lorraine's email to the media was Oct 18. Taub was Oct 22. On Oct 19 Burkman posted at his Facebook site that he would be exposing Mueller as an abuser and a drunk.

So, what does it all add up to? The media is running variations on this Atlantic lead:

A company that appears to be run by a pro-Trump conspiracy theorist offered to pay women to make false claims against Special Counsel Robert Mueller in the days leading up to the midterm elections—and the special counsel’s office has asked the FBI to weigh in.

At their Twitter sites both Wohl and Burkman are chanting "Fake News". Well, what else can they say?

And the truth? We may see. If Burkman and/or Surefire is going around suborning perjury that is a Big Effing Deal. On the other hand, I question the editorial standards at The Atlantic - they are making this charge against Burkman and Wohl on the basis of an unverified letter from an unknown source making uncorraborated allegations? How?

It appears that someone ("Lorraine Parsons") has been sending letters to the media reporting this outrageous conduct by, well, Surefire at Burkman's behest if we believe a word of it. And did Lorraine report this to the police? Well, uhh, not that anyone knows. No risk of a false statement charge there.

Per The Atlantic, Prof. Taub promptly forwarded her email to the Special Prosecutor. OK, she is a savvy law professor and Lorraine is whatever she is, but really - how could the Krassenstein instinct that this was an attempt to make the media look silly be totally off base?

MAYBE Burkman and Wohl really are this dumb. Or maybe someone's goal (Burkman? 4Chan?) was to make as many people as possible look ridiculous with an elaborate spoof.

A bright red flag is this: The Krassensteins live in Ft. Myers FL, the same hometown the un-findable Lorraine provided. Eerie coincidence? Or deliberate shout-out to (or by!) the Krassensteins, who have led the way in reporting on this.

I don't know. Burkman ought to be pounding on the FBI doors demanding an investigation to clear his name and he ought to be hiring lawyers to advise him whether The Atlantic or others crossed a libel line. Libel would be tricky for a public figure with such a dubious past, but this allegation is less substantial than air. We will see.

A SECOND RED FLAG: This indicates either a real problem with this story or with my tired eyes but I can't find a whisper of this Burkman and Mueller story at CNN.com.

Mediate, on the other hand, is teed up for a libel claim unless their buckpassing to the Daily Beast lets them off:

Here Are the Idiots Behind the Dumb Scheme to Accuse Robert Mueller of Sexual Harassment 

by Caleb Ecarma | Oct 30th, 2018, 5:32 pm

 

GOP lobbyist and Seth Rich conspiracy theorist Jack Burkman is working with the notoriously unintelligent pro-Trump Twitter personality Jacob Wohl to smear special counsel Robert Mueller with sexual misconduct allegations, according to a report from The Daily Beast.

Born In The USA! And Subject To Its Jurisdiction.

Let me tack on to the previous post this 2015 National Review column by John Eastman. [nd for the opposite view, do see John Ho below].

Eastman's legal resume is impressive yet incomplete:

John C. Eastman is the Henry Salvatori Professor of Law & Community Service and former dean at the Chapman University Dale E. Fowler School of Law. He also serves as the director of the Claremont Institute’s Center for Constitutional Jurisprudence.

Left unmentioned: Per Wikipedia he graduated from U of Chicago Law and eventually clerked for Justice Thomas. Not a feather in the wind.

His gist:

We Can Apply the 14th Amendment While Also Reforming Birthright Citizenship

...

The first clause of the 14th Amendment provides that “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” The Journal thinks the meaning is “straightforward”: “Subject to the jurisdiction” covers everyone born on U.S. soil (except the children of diplomats and invading armies), because “‘jurisdiction’ defines the territory where the force of law applies and to whom — and this principle is well settled to include almost everyone within U.S. borders, regardless of their home country or the circumstances of their birth.” It then states: “By the circular restrictionist logic, illegal immigrants could not be prosecuted for committing crimes because they are not U.S. citizens.”

Professor Yoo makes the same claim (absent the ad hominem word “restrictionist”): “Almost all aliens in the United States, even citizens of other nations, still fall within our jurisdiction while they are in our territory: Otherwise they could commit crimes of all sorts without fear of punishment.”

This claim plays off a widespread ignorance about the meaning of the word “jurisdiction.” It fails to recognize that the same word covers two distinctly different ideas: 1) complete, political jurisdiction; and 2) partial, territorial jurisdiction.

Think of it this way. When a British tourist visits the United States, he subjects himself to our laws as long as he remains within our borders. He must drive on the right side of the road, for example. He is subject to our partial, territorial jurisdiction, but he does not thereby subject himself to our complete, political jurisdiction. He does not get to vote, or serve on a jury; he cannot be drafted into our armed forces; and he cannot be prosecuted for treason if he takes up arms against us, because he owes us no allegiance. He is merely a “temporary sojourner,” to use the language employed by those who wrote the 14th Amendment, and not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States in the full and complete sense intended by that language in the 14th Amendment.

He revisits the history of the floor debate n the Senate to buttress that distinction. As a layman I can only add, we don't "amend" the Constitution anymore - we reinterpret it. Sure, its interesting when the court discovers a previously unheard of right in a penumbra somewhere and overlooks a blidnigly obvious seemingly in the plain text, but here we are.

His conclusion:

So, truth be told, the 14th Amendment does not need to be repealed in order to fix the problem of birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants. It just needs to be understood and applied correctly.

Among my many questions: If I can rely on Eastman, Congress has passed many immigration laws since 1898 without explicitly endorsing or repudiating this court decision. Is there anything like a 'silence gives consent' doctrine? Or even 'consent-lite' - maybe a court would accept that  specific act of Congress could revise this ruling bit not a mere Executive Order.

I don't know. Assuming for a moment that this is a serious policy proposal and not electioneering, it seems to me that Trump will want a letter from the OLC of the DoJ prior to signing any Executive Orders.

DO LET ME ADD: This might easily be both a serious proposal and electioneering - there may be a faction that has been pushing this for months and they finally caught Trump's imagination by pitching it as a base-motivating ploy.

STOLEN FROM: Threadkiller provides a 2006 essay by John Eastman on same topic, this time at Heritage. His key is still the meaning of "subject to jurisdiction" but here is a different angle:

The "subject to the jurisdiction" provision must therefore require something in addition to mere birth on U.S. soil. The language of the 1866 Civil Rights Act, from which the Citizenship Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment was derived, provides the key to its meaning. The 1866 Act provides: "All persons born in the United States, and not subject to any foreign power, excluding Indians not taxed, are hereby declared to be citizens of the United States."[3] As this formulation makes clear, any child born on U.S. soil to parents who were temporary visitors to this country and who, as a result of the foreign citizenship of the child's par­ents, remained a citizen or subject of the parents' home country was not entitled to claim the birth­right citizenship provided by the 1866 Act.

ON THE OTHER HAND: Former judge John Ho has an alternative history and the opposite conclusion. They can't both be right.

Born In The USA!

Who among us does not enjoy a bit of red meat the week before an election?

Exclusive: Trump targeting birthright citizenship with executive order

I should add, I am having a flashback to a Great Moment In Sports Broadcasting.

Yankee great Phil Rizzuto, ruminating on sports records that will never be broken, suggested Don Larsen's perfect World Series game. His ever-patient co-announcer Bill White noted that someone someday might pitch a perfect Series game. To which the Scooter replied, "That would TIE the record!" 

And why this happy stroll down memory lane? Trump, with the aid of an Axios parenthetical correction, provides the set-up here:

Trump told "Axios on HBO" that he has run the idea of ending birthright citizenship by his counsel and plans to proceed with the highly controversial move, which certainly will face legal challenges.

...

"We're the only country in the world where a person comes in and has a baby, and the baby is essentially a citizen of the United States ... with all of those benefits," Trump continued. "It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. And it has to end." (More than 30 countries, most in the Western Hemisphere, provide birthright citizenship.)

The Inner Pedant Never Sleeps

In the course of fulminating about something or other I was casting about for a phrase that would mean the opposite of "gilding the lily" - talking down even further something already bad. Maybe something country-ish like "Don't throw mud on a pig".

Nothing came to me, so I turned to my friend Bing. And behold, a lesson in the twilight struggle between the Inner Pedant and the Memory Sieve:

Wow. Six and a half years later and I'm still puzzled. But I'm a King of Frequently Unasked Questions!

Fun trip down memory lane to see how many of us were old-timers back then.

Still Not 1968

Pat Buchanan reprises 1968, still the modern high-water mark for a divided America.

Left unmentioned - 1968 was part of a global phenomenon, namely, the coming of age of the post-war baby-boom. France had memorable student protests as did other European countries. Mexico had brutally suppressed riots just before the Olympic Games, and China's Cultural Revolution (launched in 1966) continued apace.

Obviously, the current reaction to unfettered immigration is roiling Europe and the US.

Merkel Out

The rolling wave of resistance to unfettered immigration finally takes down Angela Merkel. One might think, after Brexit, Trump, Macron, Sweden, eastern Europe and Merkel that the folks in favor of open borders would dial up better arguments than "Stop hating, you hate-filled hater". But maybe not.

MORE: Andrew Sullivan swings to starboard on this one:

Democrats Can’t Keep Dodging Immigration As a Real Issue

It’s the optics that are fatal. The image of that caravan, crammed with thousands of desperate brown human beings, winding its way tortuously through Central America and Mexico, headed to a showdown at the U.S. border, is a white nationalist’s twisted fantasy. The question is not if George Soros funded it, but if Steve Bannon did (I’m kidding, I’m kidding). It reminds me of that infamous poster in the Brexit campaign which showed a long, packed line of migrants, in theory waiting to enter Britain, with the slogan: “Breaking Point.”

...

I get all that. I’m an immigrant myself. But it doesn’t answer a simple question. What do we do when the caravan gets here? And more saliently: What do we do if many more caravans show up behind it? This is not an abstract question. It’s a pressing, practical, and in some ways existential one. It cuts to the core of whether the United States has to choose between being inhumane to the point of betraying some core moral principles and remaining a sovereign nation in control of who joins its population.

He does slide past a key point when he writes this:

The United States has long been a miraculous machine for immigrant assimilation. Which is why it’s easy to dismiss the appeal of anti-immigrant sentiment as nativist racism, waxing as it periodically does in America. 

Well, yes. There was an anti-immigrant backlash in the 1910-1920s, when the non-native born population was around 15%. Today? Projected to reach 14% by 2020.

There is a manageable pace of integration and change but we are moving well into a zone that has in the past led to significant social tension. (I'm thinking Japanese internment as I write ). Lots of history of immigration and the changing laws in the LA Times. And every picture tells a story.

Roll Tide!

OK, props to this dad who may have stopped a mass killing at a McDonalds in Birmingham. Free happy meals for life.

And his life may not be long - he was leaving with his sons, turned to shoot it out with the gunman, and both he and a teenage son were wounded. His wife (OK, my wife anyway) might pin a medal on him and then choke him out in his sleep for endangering her baby boy.

I would have the devil's own time getting my sons to go out while I went back but jiminy - he made a bold choice which this time worked out. IMHO he ought to coach them that their "Help" assignment is to get out and get the police.

A brave dad armed with a pistol stopped what could have been a mass shooting Saturday inside an Alabama McDonald's when he took down a masked gunman who had stormed in and opened fire.

The unidentified father was leaving the establishment with his sons when a masked man walked into the Birmingham fast-food restaurant and started shooting, WBRC-TV reported. The father returned fire and, during the ensuing shootout, the gunman, the father and one of the man's teenage sons were struck, according to the station. 

The gunman, who was not identified, later died of his injuries. The other two injuries were not considered life-threatening.

...

Authorities are now working to determine if the gunman intended to rob the restaurant, was targeting an employee or planned something more nefarious.

“Things like this are difficult for both families. The gentleman who unfortunately lost his life, the teenage boy who is in the hospital recovering from his injuries and the father who is also recovering from his injuries,” Birmingham police spokesman Sgt. Bryan Shelton said, according to WVTM-13. “It's not easy being a father and watching your child get injured, get hurt like that. It's a really heartwrenching experience."

"Gentleman".

All that said, the dad's choices may have been limited. Other coverage places the dad and his kids at the door or inside the McDonalds (possibly at the door), near closing time. 

The shooting happened about 10:45 p.m. at the Lomb Avenue restaurant. Birmingham police spokesman Sgt. Bryan Shelton said one juvenile and two adults were injured. All three were transported to area hospitals where one of the adult victims was later pronounced dead.

Initial police scanner reports said the shooting may have happened during a robbery, but police have not confirmed that report. Shelton said the restaurant was closing for the night and the manager was unlocking the door to let out a father and his two teen sons.

As the door was opened, a masked man burst inside and opened fire. The exiting customer was able to return fire, striking the masked man who ultimately died at the hospital.

The father and one of his sons were injured but are expected to be OK.

STOLEN FROM: Henry, one of the many regular commenters here, is next in line with a plagiarism suit.

Place Your Bets!

As of Sunday evening, what do the betting markets say about the upcoming election?

At PredictIt, the Democrats have (roughly) a 65% chance of gaining control of the House. The Republicans have roughly a 35% chance. Do note: The PredicitIt probabilities shown below do not sum to 100% due to their fee structure: winners pay back ten percent of their net gain.

At the Iowa Electronic Market the wave is Bluer: Democrats have a 80% chance of claiming the House.

A USA Today article provides an outlier. For those who are not familiar with money-line betting, the favorite is always presented as the minus number; the underdog is the plus.

So if you see that tonight in the World Series the Dodgers at home with Kershaw starting are -125 against the Red Sox behind Price at +110, it means the Dodgers are favored to win. 

Per USA Today:

The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory. 

As of Sunday, the odds of the GOP keeping the House are at -140. That means you would need to bet $140 on the Republicans to win $100 if they stay in the majority. The Democrats are at +110, meaning a $100 bet would win you $110 if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House. 

If we split the difference at 125, then the Republicans have a (125/225) chance of holding the House, or 56%. The Democrats odds of taking the House are 100/225 or 44%.

Something is fishy there, I would say. Let's look overseas for help: at Ladbrokes in the UK, the Democrats are 8/15 favorites to take the House. That works out to a percentage of 15/(8+15), or 65%. 

Republicans are 6/4, which is a 40% chance (4/(4+6).

So Ladbrokes and PredictIt are pretty close; Iowa is in Nate Silver country,and the USA Today site just seems goofy.

A NOTE ON THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET SENATE CONTROL MARKET: The IEM Senate rules lead to an awkward place - they count Democrats and Republicans based on the declared party affiliation, not the practical one. Bernie Sanders is an Independent who declined the Dem Party nomination in Vermont. So if the final tally is 49 Republicans, 50 Democrats, and Bernie the winning ticket for Senate control is "Other", not "Democrats". 50 Republicans plus Pence pays off for "Republicans".

The IEM odds do reflect that - on the Senate side "other" is more likely than an outright Dem win. And yes, I recall that a few years back there were two independents caucusing with the Dems; I welcome a memory jog if someone cares to look it up and remind me.

 

 

 

 

 

Are You Ready For Some Football?

I'm looking for a pulse from the NY teams here: Copters down by 7, Dwarves by 10 in the 4th quarter.

MORE: I'm not a NFL coaching savant but I'm pretty sure it's harder to win from behind if you give up late touchdowns. Copters lose by 14, Dwarves down by 14.

 

How About Them Sox?

I turned the game on when it was 1-0 in the 6th and I did a quick check to make sure I hadn't found a replay of last night's game. Puig's home run to make it 4-0 Dodgers gave me further assurance I was watching live action. After that - wow.

Another Mass Shooting

This time at a synagogue in Pittsburgh. If - IF - this early reporting is correct, the shooter is a rabid anti-semite who dislikes Trump for being a squish on the ongoing Jewish problem. So, too extreme even for MAGA but not a lefty either.

LOTS MORE at ZeroHedge.

The Don't-Get-Used-To-It How 'Bout Them Red Sox Open Thread. Or Bombers...

Big game tonight. As much as I dislike the Dodgers I would enjoy seeing the Red Sox win tonight to position themselves for some seventh game ignominy that has happened only once before in baseball playoff history. Misery loves company!

But there's lots of other stuff going on, I've been told.

JUST IN CASE: JM Hanes passes along a copy of the Sayoc charging document.

I was curious to see how they characterized the pipe bombs with their "energetic material". They are charging as explosives but the language of the statute is more open than one might expect. From the doc, my emphasis:

1. In or about October 2018, in the Southern District of New York and elsewhere, CESAR ALTIERI SAYOC, the defendant, transported and received, and attempted to transport and receive, in interstate and foreign commerce, an explosive with the knowledge and intent that it would be used to kill, injure, and intimidate individuals, and unlawfully to damage and destroy buildings,vehicles, and other real and personal property...

(Title 18, United States Code, Sections 844(d) and 2.) [link]

2. In or about October 2018, in the Southern District of New York and elsewhere, CESAR ALTIERI SAYOC, the defendant, knowingly deposited for mailing and delivery, and knowingly caused to be delivered by mail, according to the direction thereon, and at a place at which it was directed to be received by the person to whom it was addressed, a thing declared nonmailable as defined in Title 18, United States Code, Section 1716(a), to wit, the IEDs described in Count One, with intent to injure another and injure the mails and other property.
(Title 18, United States Code, Sections 1716(j)(2) and 2.) [link]

3. In or about October 2018, in the Southern District of New York and elsewhere, CESAR ALTIERI SAYOC, the defendant, knowingly and willfully threatened to kill and inflict bodily harm upon a former President and a member of the immediate family of a former President, to wit, SAYOC mailed an IED to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, who resides with her husband, former President William Jefferson Clinton.

(Title 18, United States Code, Sections 879 and 2.) [link to statute]

Charge 3 is quoted as threatening to kill or harm, which means they must be willing to demonstrate these bombs are capable of exploding and doing damage. However, I have yet to check that statute.

Charge 2 mentions "intent to injure".

Charge 1 includes "intimidate", so mailing a scary bomb-like device is criminal whether it is dangerous or not.

My point is, charges 2 and 3, seem to call for both criminal intent and dangerous bombs, not inoperable duds. So are they prepared to prove that these bombs were dangerous? Or does criminal intent outweigh bomb-making incompetence? Can the defense argue the bomb-maker knew damn well they couldn't explode, so intent was absent? That would be interesting - the Feds could convict an incompetent dud-maker on the basis of evil intent but a skilled bomb-maker deliberately turning out scary duds could plausibly argue an absence of intent to injure. IANAL!

NBC News had this earlier:

The devices were poorly made, and some couldn't have exploded, but it's unclear whether that was intentional or whether they were just badly constructed, officials said. They said that some of the bombs had substantial flaws, that some had subtle flaws and that some had yet to be examined.

Even Vox joins in the fun:

The second possible reason is that the bombs couldn’t detonate because the wires didn’t connect to a trigger, meaning they wouldn’t have exploded even if they’d reached their intended target. Anthony May, a retired government explosives investigator, told Vox that based on X-rays of the pipe bombs leaked online, he believes the devices were “not capable of functioning.”

Well, then, Mr. May he is not being asked to testify to a grand jury when the DA seeks an indictment.

The We-Hope-Not-To-Become Traditional Pipe Bomb Presser Thread

[UPDATE: I wrote this about an hour ago and headed out to run some errands. It has clearly been overtaken by events, but I'm leaving it up anyway.]

MORE: 5 Fast Facts:

1. According to online records, Sayoc is a registered Republican, registering with the GOP in Florida in March 2016. Sayoc, who goes by Cesar Altieri Randazzo on Facebook, attended a Donald Trump rally in October 2016 [video now unavailable]

2. Sayoc tweeted regularly about his belief that Florida Democrat Andrew Gillum was funded by billionaire philanthropist George Soros. 

3. Sayoc has been arrested several times in Broward County, Florida, dating back to 1991, court records show. His most recent arrest in Broward was in 2014. In 2002, he was charged with making a bomb threat in Dade County, Florida. He was sentenced to one year of probation. Prosecutors agreed to withhold adjudication of the felony charge, meaning it was dismissed after he completed the probation in 2003.

In 1991, Sayoc was charged with third-degree grand theft, a felony. He pleaded guilty that same year and was sentenced to two years of probation. In 1994, his mother sought a domestic violence injunction against Sayoc, court records show....

Sayoc filed for bankruptcy in 2012 and was not married at the time. He was working as a store manager at a supermarket in Hollywood, Florida, at the time. He was also arrested on theft charges in Dade and Palm Beach counties in 1992 and 2015.

Points 4 and 5 are filler:

4. Coincidentally, Hillary Clinton Was Campaigning in Florida When a Device Was Mailed to Her New York Home

5. Soros Has Been Widely Criticized by Right-Wing Groups & Accused of ‘Owning’ Democratic Politicians

 Do let me add a query and a caveat - if he registered as a Republican in March 2016, what was he before that? Or was this some routine voter roll clean-up re-registration denounced as voter suppression?

And a caveat - if Sayoc was a disaffected Bernie Bro he jumped ship early-ish: at the end of March the race between Clinton and Sanders was virtually over but hope was still alive in Bernieland. Hillary clinched in June.

And on the third hand, the Bernie Bros thought Wasserman-Schultz rigged the nomination process for Hillary, so who knows?

BONUS BAFFLER: Felons can't vote in Florida, so why is Sayoc registered at all? Based on endless assurances from Dems we know its not voter fraud.

ORIGINAL:

Jeff Sessions is meant to boost afternoon ratings at 2:30 Eastern to announce something about the guy in custody and the status of the pipe bomb investigation.

This was my unhandicapped list from a few days back, now numbered to aid the betting commentariat. I've also added a few plural categories as well.

 A) a right-wing nutjob with clear political motivation but a terrible sense of political timing;

 A1) (A), but more than one.

 B) a lefty nutjub hoping to make righties look bad, as a crossover from today's campuses;

 B2) (B) but more than one.

 C) yet another Russian attempt to sow discord and disrupt American politics;

 D) some other foreign group sowing fear and discord;

 E) a deranged loner with off-the-wall motivations that make sense to only him (or her).

 E2) Deranged loners... OK, that makes no sense. A deranged group credibly disowned by both left and right. Examples? IDK - Save the Wookies? Put it this way - E2 is not my betting favorite.

Since you ask, I am gloomily considering (A) to be the favorite followed by (E) and (B). I don't like (D). Foreign terrorists would use real bombs; blowing up a mailroom clerk would be a win for them. OTOH, blowing up a clerk would be a PR disaster for Russian manipulators.

I don't think these bombs were a serious attempt to do damage so that pushes me towards a nutter making a statement of some sort, or Mad Russians, who are low-probability because they really, really can't let themselves be caught.

Which segues to Bonus Paranoia: In a John Sandford or Lee Child novel the authorities would make an early arrest but it would take Lucas Davenport or Jack Reacher a bit longer to pierce the official cover-up (or criminal mastermind's scheming) and uncover the real evil-doers. Still time for an arrest today and a dramatic plot twist next week!

And Then There Were Twelve

The hits keep coming!

Suspicious Packages Targeting James Clapper, Sen. Cory Booker Found In Midtown And In Florida

Spartacus scores! And we know NY Governor and would-be President Andrew Cuomo is calling reporters and telling them that he nearly got a package and he hates Trump as much as Booker does.

Right now I am pretty sure staffers for Kamala Harris and the many other 2020 hopefuls are buying up manila envelopes, Forever stamps and PVC pipe to bail out their own leader's 2020 vision. Don't forget the faux-ISIS flags!

Blue Wave Ebbing

You know the mid-term polling has turned grim for Democrats when you see that Vox has placed the nation on a suicide watch.

OK, lithium may have mental health benefits and yes, trace amounts are found in varying concentrations in drinking water. But its interesting to see the Vox Huge Government mindset in action - they want to add it to drinking water, as we do with flouride:

Why this hasn’t been tried

These recent studies have made me less confident in the link between lithium and lower suicide rates than I was when I first encountered Ghaemi’s research. But it’s such a cheap intervention, and the odds of serious side effects sound low enough, that it seems worth a try.

At the very least, I’d love for some governments to conduct real, bona fide experiments on lithium. Maybe a state could randomly add lithium to some of its reservoirs but not others, or, conversely, a high-lithium state could try removing it from the water. There are serious ethical questions about doing experiments like this that affect whole populations, but if lithium’s effect is real and we don’t pursue it because we lack compelling enough evidence, thereby endangering thousands of people — that’s an ethical problem too.

For heaven's sake - for reasons they identify this is DOA. Would it be too much to ask to have the FDA fund some science and produce a Daily Value, as they do with so many other vitamins and minerals? Then lithium could be promoted as one more food additive, like Vitamin C.

OH, YEAH: Everything I learned about lithium as of 2014. Worth mentioning: Guessing at a Recommended Dietary Allowance is not easy and food is an important source.

Flashback: Mass Murder Mailing of 2005

A lot of pipe bombs have been discovered in the last few days (Drudge is up to nine) mailed to prominent Democrats and Trump critics. What does it mean? Obvious possibilities are:

  - a right-wing nutjob with clear political motivation but a terrible sense of political timing;

 - a lefty nutjub hoping to make righties look bad, as a crossover from today's campuses;

 - yet another Russian attempt to sow discord and disrupt American politics;

 - some other foreign group sowing fear and discord;

 - a deranged loner with off-the-wall motivations that make sense to on.y him (or her).

Don't be afraid to bet on the deranged loner. This appalling incident from 2005 was kept quiet for a year but eventually Supreme Court Justice O'Connor told the tale, which was also available in court documents. This is CNN:

O'Connor details half-baked attempt to kill Supreme Court

POSTED: Kevin Bohn  8:05 p.m. EST, November 17, 2006

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Cookies mailed to the U.S. Supreme Court last year contained enough rat poison to kill all nine justices, retired member Sandra Day O'Connor said at a conference last week.

Barbara Joan March, a 60-year-old Connecticut woman, was sentenced last month to 15 years in prison. She sent 14 threatening letters in April 2005 -- each with a baked good or piece of candy laced with rat poison -- to a variety of federal officials: the nine Supreme Court justices; FBI Director Robert Mueller; his deputy; the chief of naval operations; the Air Force chief of staff and the chief of staff of the Army.

March pleaded guilty in March to 14 counts of mailing injurious articles.

OK, crazy right? But was it a serious mass assassination attempt? Well, CNN said "half-baked" for a reason:

The letters did not seem to pose much of a real danger since the threatening note told the recipients the food was poisoned. In court papers submitted with the plea agreement, prosecutors said each of the envelopes contained a one-page typewritten letter stating either "I am" or "We are" followed by "going to kill you. This is poisoned."

I think security-minded folks call notes saying "This is poisoned" a "clue". It certainly might leave one wondering what the sender's goal was.

Unsurprisingly, after the 2001 anthrax letters and probably before, there are security procedures in place for handling the mail:

Supreme Court spokeswoman Kathleen Arberg said the poison packages never reached the chambers of the justices.

All mail sent to the court is screened, and there has been heightened security since anthrax-laced letters were sent to members of Congress and the media in 2001. The Supreme Court also received some suspicious packages at the time, forcing it to shut down for a short period of time. Those packages turned out to be harmless.

So what was going on? Per the government's sentencing memorandum, the key was in the return addresses; the sender was not making a political statement but instead was hoping to ensnare some enemies in her life:

Third, the defendant's conduct does not appear to have been motivated by any personal, political or professional animosity toward the intended recipients of the letters. Rather, interviews with the purported senders of the letters, as well as factors cited in the presentence investigation report, suggest that the defendant's conduct likely was motivated by a misplaced anger toward the purported senders of the letters, former friends and colleagues who in the defendant's mind somehow had abandoned or wronged her.

If there is anything to be learned from this today, it might be that waiting for a fact or two to emerge before leaping to conclusions about the attacker's motivation can be a good idea.

However, that is difficult advice to take. Back when this story broke in 2006 some lefty bloggers promptly blamed an Ann Coulter "joke" about poisoning Justice Stevens for this attack. OK, the timing was backwards since her joke followed the attack (but preceded the publicizing of it). And the sentencing memorandum explaining the motivation was available in the public record. But there were political points to be scored, so whatever.

To paraphrase Tommy Lee Jones from "No Country For Old Men", even in the contest between man and available information the outcome is uncertain.

As to current events, one might wonder whether these pipe bombs were a serious attempt to kill prominent Democrats. Surely no observer believes Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton is sitting at home with a letter opener handling stray packages. (Sorry, no serious observer.) Obviously, if a mailman or security person had been maimed or killed that would be ghastly but per the Times reporting it is not yet established that these bombs were capable of exploding:

None of the devices harmed anyone, and it was not immediately clear whether any of them could have. One law enforcement official said investigators were examining the possibility that they were hoax devices that were constructed to look like bombs but would not have exploded.

...

The devices contained some of the components that would be required to build an operable bomb, but law enforcement officials would not say late on Wednesday whether they were viable.

...

On Wednesday afternoon, New York City’s police commissioner, James P. O’Neill, said that the CNN bomb was “a live explosive device” and that it would be rendered harmless and sent to the F.B.I. to be analyzed. The package that contained the device also included white powder that the police were testing to determine if it was toxic, he said.

Some bomb technicians who studied photos of the device that circulated on social media suggested that the bomb sent to CNN had hallmarks of fake explosives — the kind more typically depicted on television and in movies, rather than devices capable of detonating.

A digital clock was taped to the middle of the pipe, a feature that experts say is typically shown on fictional bombs in an attempt to ratchet up dramatic tension, but unnecessary in real life.

In fact, bombmakers generally avoid attaching visible clocks to their devices to keep from tipping off their targets about when the bombs are set to explode.

If these were in fact fail-safe hoax bombs, what was the point? Terror? Win a news cycle? But why assume logical motivation? Maybe the goal was to get a business partner in trouble or settle a nasty divorce the old-fashioned way. Time may tell.

Fortunately, no one was hurt. Whether that was luck or design we will learn soon enough. And it goes without saying (or ought to), the folks handling these bombs don't know until later just how much of a risk they are taking. We thank them for their service and admire their courage.

We Will Dial Back The Madness Tomorrow

Tomorrow the NY Times editors will surely implore Sarah Palin and the rest of the Evil Right to dial back the madness. But meanwhile, they're running Trump assassination porn as a treat for the Resistance.

The Oct 23 NY Times Book Review asks five novelists to write the final chapter of the Trump administration. Zoe Sharp offers "How It Ends". A fair use excerpt before the Times rethinks this:

HOW IT ENDS

By Zoë Sharp

The Russian landed at Dulles after 48 hours of traveling. Of necessity, he came from Moscow by a circuitous route. A long way with a very specific task. There would be no return flight.

...

When it was time, he went downstairs, took his place in the lobby before the entourage appeared. The hotel staff had been lined up to see their boss, the president, go by. A few of them applauded. Most did not.

The president didn’t seem to notice. He waved, in his desultory fashion. The Secret Service agents clustered around him, ushered him toward the armored limo idling outside at the curb.

The Russian waited until they were a few steps past before he drew the gun. He sighted on the center of the president’s back, and squeezed the trigger.

The Makarov misfired.

The Secret Service agent at the president’s shoulder heard the click, spun into a crouch. He registered the scene instantly, drawing his own weapon with razor-edge reflexes.

The Russian tasted failure. He closed his eyes and waited to pay the cost.

It did not come.

He opened his eyes. The Secret Service agent stood before him, presenting his Glock, butt first.

“Here,” the agent said politely. “Use mine. …”

Wow. 

OK, This Is Dreadful

Hillary and Obama got mail packages with bombs similar to the Soros device? Crazy behavior by an out-of-control nutjob. 

Worst Cover-Up EVER!

From Reuters:

Asked by a reporter in the White House Oval Office how the Khashoggi killing could have happened, Trump said: "They had a very bad original concept. It was carried out poorly, and the cover-up was one of the worst in the history of cover-ups."

Fortunately, Trump did NOT go on to say that he executes big, glorious cover-ups. Or - the gold standard - Clintonesque coverups. With any luck, we'll find out in the next few months whether he does or not.

Don't Bomb Anyone. Please.

Anyone who wants to blow up George Soros's schemes should do so on Nov. 6. METAPHORICALLY!

An explosive device was found on Monday in a mailbox at a home of George Soros, the billionaire philanthropist who is a favorite target of right-wing groups, in a suburb north of New York City, the authorities said.

A law enforcement official confirmed that the device was found near Mr. Soros’s home. It did not explode on its own, and bomb squad technicians “proactively detonated” it, the official said.

This is actually scary, probably to the point of stupid [UPDATE has a more sensible version]:

Federal and state law enforcement officials responded to the scene in Katonah, N.Y., a hamlet in the upscale town of Bedford in northern Westchester County, after the Bedford Police Department received a call about a suspicious package at about 3:45 p.m.

“An employee of the residence opened the package, revealing what appeared to be an explosive device,” the police said in a statement. “The employee placed the package in a wooded area and called the Bedford police.”

Say what? OK, the package hadn't exploded yet but I strongly suspect that pressing your luck is the wrong play. If possible, evacuate the premises and lets the trained and equipped professionals do the carrying.

Or, if unwrapping the package activated something and the bomb might have exploded in a couple of minutes, let Soros pay for a new entrance foyer. Yike.

Anyway, yeah, yeah, no suspects have been found, no motivation is known, so it might be a false flag lefty operation, it might be a disgruntled kook with a grievance unrelated to politics or the political calendar, it might be a lot of things. But it might be a right-wing nutjob, and on the off chance this person is persuadable, let me add my voice to those saying, save that energy for organizing and voting. No bombs. Geez.

UPDATE: A new Times story has these details:

Officers from the police department in the town of Bedford, N.Y., initially responded to the Soros home in the hamlet of Katonah, at about 3:45 p.m. Monday in response to a call from the caretaker about a suspicious package, according to a police department statement. The Westchester County Police Department’s bomb squad was called, as were federal and state investigators.

“The caretaker went out to collect the mail and didn’t make it back to the residence,” a senior law enforcement official said. The device was packed in an envelope that was about 8 by 10 inches and “looked suspicious.” The caretaker “dropped it in the woods on the way back to the residence.”

In the age of Amazon Prime, what small package looks suspicious?

Traditional "Where Did The Morning Go?" Open Thread

Away we go, finally.

Don't Shoot!

The NY Times runs a guest op-ed with a perfectly sensible message - Let’s Agree Not to Kill One Another.

However, in classic "This is how you get more Trump" fashion, the author, a port-side Green, can only manage to criticize Trump and offer as a US example the case of Dr. Blasey Ford.

As an attempt to persuade the left not to shoot at righties, this might find some traction [Narrator: It won't find traction].

However, it fails as an attempt to change minds on the right by failing to notice that these social media death threats have moved to the real world on the left as well as the right. Could he have mentioned that Republican Congressman were exposed to actual gunfire by an aggrieved Bernie-bro, not just nasty comments on someone's blog? Could he have found any number of examples of righties getting death threats from the left, including Brett Kavanaugh's family?

Of course he could have. But when faced with a choice between criticizing his own tribe as well as the other, he backed down. Utterly predictable, yet disappointing.

Football Saturday!

The colleges and coaches get rich off the unpaid (or under-paid) players. But no one takes a knee, so there's that.

Run, Hillary Run!

I actually think it would be great for the Democrats if Hillarity runs in 2020. First, as she sucked up all the oxygen the other contenders and pretenders would turn blue, which might be a good look for messaging purposes.

More importantly, whoever knocked her off would establish a bit of credibility as a giant-killer, even though "excorcist" would be more appropriate.

Evergreen Headline

Torn from anytime in my life:

The Experts Were Wrong About the Middle East

I love the intro:

There is a rare and growing bipartisan consensus in Congress about the need to smack Saudi Arabia with human-rights sanctions, or perhaps even tougher penalties, for its role in the death of Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist who walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul earlier this month but never walked out. Sanctions seem inevitable.

The only problem is that many of the same experts pushing for sanctions against Saudi Arabia have previously argued, in other contexts, that sanctions don’t work. That was the near-unanimous conclusion of top policy experts who supported the Obama administration’s decision to roll back sanctions on Iran, which had brought its economy to the brink of collapse, in exchange for a nuclear deal. It’s just one example of a broader trend: analysts suddenly discovering that the Middle East is more complex than they’d previously admitted.

The Washington Post, which now wants Saudi Arabia to pay a price for Khashoggi’s death, ran a piece just last year by Adam Taylor titled “Do Sanctions Work? The Evidence Isn’t Compelling.” Even the Post’s Jason Rezaian, who was held hostage by the Iranians and is now safely back in the United States, opposed more sanctions on Iran in a recent piece, arguing that they would only inflict more suffering on its population.

This logic is what prompted the Obama administration to engage the Iranian regime from a position of “mutual respect.” That was code for offering massive financial incentives in exchange for Iran dialing back its nuclear program. That effort began with cash payments to Iran for staying at the negotiating table. The administration then repealed sanctions in exchange for some tangible yet temporary nuclear concessions. For good measure, the Obama administration gave the Iranians more cash. That ultimately yielded a controversial nuclear deal, signed in 2015, that pressed pause on Iran’s mad dash for the bomb. Here’s the problem: By focusing exclusively on Iran’s nuclear problem, the deal effectively gave a green light to a range of other malign activity, like terrorism, missile proliferation, and support for other rogue states. In fact, that behavior only increased after the deal was signed.

That sort of policy—tying sanction relief to halting one problematic behavior, in a way that implicitly authorizes other misdeeds—is the last approach we want to apply to Saudi Arabia. And besides, it doesn’t really need the money.

We need to virtue-signal the hell out of them.

 

Finding The Fall Guy

The Saudis tee someone up.