JustOneMinute

Drug Trials In New York

From Trump's lips to Cuomo's ears:

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Sunday that his state is set to begin clinical trials this week for a malaria drug that President Donald Trump has touted as a possible treatment for coronavirus.

“The president is optimistic about these drugs, and we are all optimistic that it could work,” Cuomo said at a daily press conference in Albany.

This therapy delivers results (or doesn't) pretty quickly. The normal course of treatment is ten days [eg, French mini-trial] but if we don't hear rumors of success or failure before then we need to revisit HIPPA.

Are You Ready For Some Football?

Are you ready for some football? I expect the coronavirus to return this fall (if it ever goes away) and the fall football season to be either cancelled or played as Made For TV spectacles in empty stadiums.

The second most dangerous play in football is leaving your QB unprotected on the blind side. The most dangerous play is getting between the owners and their money. Bet on empty stadiums. Play ball!

Fashion Hints

This is the look Social Distancers are looking for. Wear this, enjoy a zesty onion/garlic sauce on your scrambled eggs, and you're safe to go shopping.

If anyone gets within six feet, start mumbling. I recite the 1978 NY Yankees lineup but you do you.

 

A Ray Of Hope!?!

Our sadly under-employed Department of Good News is please to pass this along: a common anti-malarial drug combined with azithromycin, aka Zitromax, seems to have been effective in treating the coronavirus. Derek Lowe has commentary (starting about half-way down, with a mix of hope and caveats); here is the paper and coverage of the concept in Forbes.

Trump was asked about this at today's press conference so it is all very topical.

Does Schadenfreude Help At All?

A daily dose of delight in the news that however bad things may be here, the mullahs are having it worse. The day may be coming when the Iranian people are free of them, and we hope it is for a better government ("better" meaning less oppressive, less inclined to sponsor terror, and focused on a better life for its own citizens rather than a worse life for those in Israel and the US.)

The Times does not mention the Saudi oil price war among the Iranian afflictions:

An extraordinary burst of contradictory messages in recent days has angered many of the country’s 80 million citizens, already stressed by severe American economic sanctions, unemployment and mistrust of their leaders.

In hindsight the oil price was going to collapse with a global COVID19 recession whatever the Saudis did. (Did I say "collapse"? West Texas Intermediate closed at $22/bbl on NYMEX today. Began the year at $60. Rear view mirror.)

Two heads have not been better than one in Iran:

Iran’s dual power structure — a religious supreme leader controlling the armed forces, and a president heading a civilian administration — has long been a recipe for factional rivalry. Interviews with officials, medical workers and political analysts suggest that it has left management of the epidemic reeling, without a clear commander.

There is also a fundamental disagreement about their strategy. Shut it down or ride it out?

In a closed meeting on Friday, the two sides clashed on strategy, according to four people with knowledge of the meeting.

Mr. Rouhani demanded that the armed forces adhere to his command. The generals refused and said Mr. Khamenei had authorized them to act independently.

The military men proposed closing off Tehran and vast swaths of the country, shutting businesses and limiting people’s movements — and using the armed forces to enforce the restrictions, as China and Italy have.

Mr. Rouhani refused, arguing that his government has no resources to support millions of people under quarantine. Basic services could collapse, he said, hurtling the nation deeper into crisis.

Worth watching and hoping.

Back Again

Here we go again.

Back At Ground Zero

The WSJ studied the early response in Wuhan. I've also seen this link to a .pdf work.

That Big Debate Last Night

America was undoubtedly riveted by the Biden-Sanders debate. FWIW, Biden seems to have responded well to a mix of rest and Adderall. Oh, I say that - he might have just been hopped up on Sudafed. The old SudaFed. Worked for me!

Bernie stuck to hammering his fifty-year old solutions to the current crisis, which made him seem even more unplugged than usual. A line from his closing statement stuck with me (and NO, I'm not going to look it up. My memory is MY truth!). His gist: To address the coronavirus crisis we must address what is wrong with America. Why are we propping up oil companies when 500,000 people are sleeping under bridges?

Biden came off as a guy with actual executive branch experience. Bernie came off as a guy with fifty years experience in freshman dorm bull sessions. (Yes, AOC is his inevitable heir.)

At one point Bernie was bemoaning the idea that the Fed would be giving banks an additional trillion in liquidity at a time when something bad is happening to someone else somewhere else (Was it a cat stuck up a tree? Maybe!). Biden snorted another Sudafed and explained that absent bank loans a lot more cats would get stuck up trees. Or something... hmm... Didn't I read that confusion is one coronavirus symptom? Either Joe or I should get tested.

GROAN: Here we go.

Bernie Sanders: (30:29)
But to answer your question where we are right now, we need to stabilize the economy, but we can’t repeat what we did in 2008. Joe voted for that. I voted against it. Because we have got to do more than save the banks or the oil companies. Our job right now is to tell every working person in this country, no matter what your income is, you are not going to suffer as a result of this crisis of which you had no control.

Ilia Calderón: (30:56)
Vice President Biden.

Joe Biden: (30:56)
Had those banks all gone under, all those people Bernie says he cares about would be in deep trouble. Deep, deep trouble. All those little folks… we’d have gone out of business… they’d find themselves in the position where they would lose everything that they had in that bank, whether it was $10 or $300 or a savings account. This was about saving an economy, and it did save the economy, and the banks paid back and they paid back with interest. I agree with Bernie, some of them should have gone to jail. That was the big disagreement I had in terms of bailing out, but the question was, they paid back. In addition to that, also part of that was bailing out the automobile industry, saving thousands of jobs, tens of thousands of jobs over time. He voted against that as well.

BRING ON THE DANCING UNICORNS: The Times only glances at the absurdity of Bernie's ideas on health care and the coronavirus:

In an early barb directed at Mr. Biden, Mr. Sanders said it would take a direct confrontation with the insurance and pharmaceutical industries to remedy the situation, including enacting his proposal for a “Medicare for all”-style system that he has championed.

“Do we have the guts to take on the health care industry, some of which is funding the vice president’s campaign?” Mr. Sanders asked.

But Mr. Biden pushed back aggressively on the notion that Mr. Sanders’s signature proposal could mitigate the virus, invoking Europe’s hardest-hit country.

“With all due respect to Medicare for all, you have a single-payer system now in Italy,” he said, arguing that such a system “would not solve the problem.”

Well, yes. Biden's actual quote was more forceful:

With all due respect to Medicare for all, you have a single-payer system in Italy. It doesn’t work there. It has nothing to do with Medicare for all. That would not solve the problem at all. 

Left unremarked: Bernie's Medicare For All financing pipe dream includes using (low) Medicare reimbursement rates for hospitals and their workers. No one takes that seriously, yet Bernie rattles on like this:

We’re spending so much money, and yet we are not even prepared for this pandemic. How come we don’t have enough doctors? How come hospitals in rural areas are shutting down? 

Well, how will paying doctors and hospitals less bring out more supply and keep rural hospitals open, hmm?

Sunday Inaction

Resume Social Distancing! I wonder what church attendance will look like today?

Saturday Again

How is your social distancing going?

And we got a fun math lesson from the stock market: if stocks fall ten percent one day and then rebound ten percent the next, do they make it back to their starting point? Don't ask Brian "Million Dollar Boo-boo" Williams!

Back From A Brief Break. A Psychotic Break.

OK, wow. Last night I had to go off for a seemingly simple household chore: pick up some Clorox bleach, Fantatik spray cleaner, and Windex. I get down to our local grocery store and... hmmm. Its obvious where the toilet paper used to be next to the paper towels, but those shelves are now empty. Windex is easy to find, as is Easy Off for the oven, but then a gap of empty shelves.... squint at the labels... yup, my Fantastik ought to be right here, and at a great price! Except its not. Clorox is in the laundry section but only if you want a one piont bottle. Who buys one pint? Is that a travel size? And how could TSA let that on a plane? OK, don't get distracted. Focus. Buy two pints.

And dammit, this is America, not East Berlin. I head off to a second grocery store. On the radio the talk is about Tom Hanks testing positive for COVID19. What?!? How old is he, anyway? Not good.

I get to the second store and, hey, what - still no Fantastik? No Clorox in a real jug?

Back in the car to try a third store. Now the radio chatter is about the NBA season being "suspended". Like, there will be an 'all-clear' and they will resume in a few weeks? Come on.

Third store. Shut out again. Heroically resisting the ice cream section. Head for home. Now its the NCAA basketball tournament. March Madness will be March Sadness as they play in arenas with no fans. How does that make sense, anyway? NBA players are getting infected. Are college players immune?

I make it home, see the reaction to Trump's speech (No foreigners traveling from Europe?!?), see the stock market futures correctly predict that Thursday will make history and find out our library and schools are closed. So here we are - Wednesday seemed like a very different world from Tuesday and Thursday is not changing my mind. Is it serious yet?

Staggering Along

The stock market put fear in the rear view mirror this morning, soaring nearly 1,000 points to recoup half of Monday's wipeout. But then it got rear-ended. Trump is hinting at a fiscal stimulus plan but people seem to be in a "Show me the money" mood. 

Trump wants a payroll tax cut; Democrats will want mandatory compensated sick leave, something on unemployment benefits and some health care kickers; since the last budget hawk flew off years ago, the election year compromise will be that everyone gets everything. Yes, even ponies.

OK, Wow

OPEC fails to agree on a new round of production cuts (current limits expire at the end of March.) Saudis decide to respond to the coronavirus slowdown (and Russian intransigence) by threatening to boost production. Prices plunge.

So - are the Saudis trying a knockout punch of the mullahs in Iran? Experts think that might be one result, intended or otherwise:

″$20 oil in 2020 is coming,” Ali Khedery, formerly Exxon’s senior Middle East advisor and now CEO of U.S.-based strategy firm Dragoman Ventures, wrote Sunday on Twitter. “Huge geopolitical implications. Timely stimulus for net consumers. Catastrophic for failed/failing petro-kleptocracies Iraq, Iran, etc - may prove existential 1-2 punch when paired with COVID19.”

Silver linings as the stock market crumbles. But - and do consult your financial advisor - if I had to make a decision right now, I'd decide to have another cup of coffee. But I'd also come in buying. Definitely not a time to sell; we're at the bottom, or close to it. (Yeah, six months from now I'll re-read this by candlelight as the generator roars outside and the only other sound is gunshots warding off looters and rioters. But he persisted!)

Big If True: Bernie's Numbers Don't Add Up

I hope you're sitting down - Bernie has released cost and revenue estimates for his 70's era bong-induced fantasies proposed plans and they don't add up. From many candidates I'll pick this passage as my current favorite:

Any credible economist will assert that raising taxes by $30 or $40 trillion would substantially harm entrepreneurship and economic growth, which would dampen the new revenues. Instead, Sanders assumes that these taxes would bring a burst of new economic growth that saves $3.6 trillion over the decade from new tax revenues and less need for safety net spending. No economic analysis is provided defending these extraordinarily unconventional assumptions.

Apparently there are a host of would-be entrepreneurs chained up by our current system and waiting only for exorbitant taxes and a several new phone books of regulations before they start hiring.

Maybe!

A New Front In The Culture Wars

Trump made news by shaking hands in Tennessee despite the coronavirus scare and his own history as a germaphobe. By way of contrast, Pence is going with what is described as an elbow bump but looks to me like a forearm shiver.

 

I like the forearm shiver. It's cloth on cloth during cold/flu season and there is less twisting than with a full elbow bump (that is my sore shoulder typing).

But on to the emerging culture war! Oldsters, especially those of a conservative temperament, will not be inclined to let go of the handshake. Youngsters, especially young Democrats, will see a double play here. They can show off their hipness AND take a shot at Trump by switching too... well, something. But what?

My free and excellent advice to DNC strategerists is to get in front of this. Teams Biden and Sanders should agree on a handshake substitute and promote it on center stage of their next debate. Message: Our party is united for change, positive leadership and a healthier America. Possibly regrettable subtext - Our party is nominating two geezers in the highest risk group for COVID19. DNC spin doctors (and maybe some real doctors) will want to manage that.

As to the substitute, I see three main candidates. First up (and off) is the Wuhan Shuffle, aka the "fistshake". Mutual foot taps? Please. Youngsters, especially in soccer mad countries, will love the Wuhan Shuffle. But c'mon - how will that work at a cocktail party? After two hip replacement and two drinks, I won't be doing a successful foot tap with anyone. Totally NOT recommended for old timers like me, Joe or Bernie. (Joe was a good HS/college athlete though; he might be tempted. Bernie would be nuts to try. (Yes, I'd pay to watch if they pre-announced it as a PPV event.)

The fist bump was studied in Britain during the Ebola scare in 2014 (during which I introduced my Ebola air kiss. More on that in a bit, with the emphasis on "moron"). Only ten to twenty percent of the bug transmission associated with a conventional handshake. Its better and don't be a science denier! 

Joe Biden should push for the fist bump, aka the terrorist fist jab, as a reminder of his Obama legacy. Bernie will spot this problem and will no doubt be asking his advisers "What did Che do?".

The next entrant is the Ebola Elbow, which the WHO was out first with in 2014. It hasn't caught on but the Pence variation seems more manageable.

Ebola was a poor disease for the roll out of a handshake alternative. The disease was not THAT contagious and it was pretty easy for folks to know if they'd been kn close contact with a dead African while in Africa. Consequently it didn't break out in the West, or really anywhere other than where it originated.

Obviously the coronavirus is a different story. Politically, the media is hyping every little thing in an attempt to derail Trump and its hard to trust them (although life is full of surprises). Some on the right have tried the opposite, minimizing everything as Democratic fear-mongering. Others on the right have pointed out that a crisis is an opportunity to show leadership.

Well. Where are not in a good place to have a calm national conversation and I'm pretty sure we'll end up with Republicans wearing flag lapels and Democrats doing fist bumps. Too bad - I'm not a handshake fan myself.

ABOUT THAT EBOLA AIR KISS: Back in 2014 I would greet the ladies at cocktail parties with my Oh-So-Euro "Ebola air kiss". Har de har. Time moved on and I had to update it to the "Ebola/Zika air kiss". Now I deploy the "Ebola/Zika/Coronavirus air kiss" on the increasingly rare occasions I am invited to a social event. I should note it has been effective as an auto-quarantine tactic; surprisingly few people at a cocktail party want to chat with the weirdo in the corner mumbling about Ebola and Zika.

So, no air kisses for Joe and Bernie. NOT on my recommended list.

Friday Evening Post-Game

Just another week in the stock and bond markets.

Mulligan!

Biden wins big on Super Tuesday. Wednesday, Bloomberg drops out and endorses him.

The Dem DC establishment is going to nominate in 2020 the guy they should have backed in 2016. 

For my money, stopping Bernie was a very big deal. I just wish the Democrats could have rallied around a moderate who was not the pure essence of Democratic DC Establishment. We'll see if the Dems can keep Joe propped up and more or less functional until November.

Super Tuesday. Vote Early, Vote Often

Can Bernie be stopped?

Wut Happened?!?

We have conquered fear of... something. Maybe everything! The Dow rose 1,300 points in response to... well, the Fed is on the way! I also guess the coronavirus news could have been much worse.

And speaking of 'much worse', that would describe Bernie's Presidential prospects - the DNC and Team Biden have persuaded both Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out and endorse Biden tonight in Dallas.

Team Silver have updated their forecasts. A brokered convention is the heavy favorite now, at about 67%. Sanders is at 17% chance of an outright win, just ahead of Biden at 16%. Bloomberg and Gabbard have no shot but capitalism is much safer, for today at least. Here's a fun chart shwoing the rising odds of Chaos, the breakdowns of of Bernie and Bloomberg and the rebirth of Joe Biden.

Quip du jour on the impending showdown between Biden and Sanders: Democrats are being asked to choose between early onset Alzheimer's and early-onset communism.

We Have Conquered Fear (As Of 11:30 AM)!

Trump 2020 rolls again as the Dow soars!

NY Times Science Writer Defends Trump China Travel Restrictions

I did not see this coming - science writer Donald McNeil Jr. of the NY Times defends Trump's restrictions on travel from China.

 Do let me add: buying a few weeks delay in the spread of Covid-19 is likely to be a VERY big deal. *IF*  - IF - this virus behaves  like its cold and flu cousins, transmission should fade when the cold and flu season ends. That is typically by the end of April (Week 17 on the example CDC graph below). We've had a mild winter in the Northeast and the end of April is nine weeks away. That's better than twelve weeks. Can we avoid a major outbreak in the Philly/New York/Boston area? Here's hoping! (Seattle is a write-off. Damn.)

Big Day!

Its off to the races - to South Carolina and beyond! (NO, not for me, for our nation's lonely eyes.)

That Went Well

The stock market has clearly caught the coronavirus.

Rich Lowry exhorts the White House to not downplay this. This might actually be a crisis even if Pelosi and Schiff say it is.

IMHO Trump was looking at this the wrong way. He approached this as if the stock market was an ongoing referendum on his Presidency. It's not - the underlying economy is what counts. As to this coronavirus, its real, the danger is hard to quantify, and there are no obvious comparisons. SARS was a million years ago before China became the world's manufacturer and a key part of so many supply chains.

So yes, if it gets bad enough the global economy could slide into recession and take the US with it. But unlike in the 2008 collapse, where slack regulatory oversight of the mortgage market was a real problem, it would be hard to blame a coronavirus recession on Trump. After all, he's the guy who wanted to cut back our dependence on China and bring manufacturing back to this country. As a result of his tariffs, many companies began exploring alternative non-Chinese suppliers. And Trump is not afraid of travel bans.

Beyond that, does anyone think Bernoie Sanders can run as the guy who'll get the economy going (Hmm, Bloomberg could...)? C'mon - if Trump positions himself as the guy who has been trying to separate us from China for three years and knows how to get this economy going again, he'll be well positioned to ride out a dip that really is not his fault. But if he pooh-poohs it AND it gets notably worse, well, he'll be out of touch and out of office.

MORE: Here is the NY Times in January on Trump's travel ban:

Many companies said they were relatively well positioned for the disruption, thanks in part to the recent easing of the trade tensions between China and the United States. Faced with the threat of tariffs, many companies — particularly retailers — had stocked up on imports from China, or found suppliers in other parts of Asia.

But if the restrictions in China are kept in place for many months and the virus keeps spreading, profits will suffer.

Well, yes.

Debate Debacle

Train wreck. Bloomberg stanched the bleeding, Biden gaffed away as he's done since the 80's, Bernie had a rough night but hung on and CBS needs to put their moderators back in their clown car and drive off. Drive off a cliff.

For a view from the left the Times Team picks their winners and losers.

Get Bernie

The Other Guys try to stave off the Sanders Juggernaut starting at 8PM tonight in a South Carolina debate that may be even more rollicking than the last.

I expect some combo of Get Bernie and Get Shorty. Pete Buttigieg has been going after Bernie lately, as has Mini-Mike Bloomberg. Amy Klobuchar may light into Pete just because she hates him, but who knows? Both Biden and Steyer will be at the debate as wet blankets in case anything gets interesting.

And last time, Fauxcahontas went after everyone except the ushers, and Bernie. Will she break her vow of silence and go back to accusing him of being a lying sexist pig? (I SO want Bernie to beat her in Massachusetts on Super Tuesday I).

Mini-Mike Firing Up

Mini-Mike is prepping to become Mighty Mike when he goes hard after Bernie Tuesday night. I guess his debate debacle last week got his attention.

Late Night Corona Watch

Concerns about the coronavirus (with a possible boost from the Bernie virus) have the Dow set to dive 400 points on Monday morning.

And this is interesting - people are trying lots of ways to get a sense of the Chinese economy:

China’s recent air pollution levels may be telling a story about the coronavirus impact on its economy

...

Analysts are using pollution levels as a gauge of industrial activity. Major cities in China are well known for being choked by smog, due to the extensive burning of coal by factories.

So far this year, pollution levels have been between 20% and 25% lower compared to the same period last year, Tapas Strickland of National Australia Bank (NAB) said in a note earlier last week, suggesting there was a substantial decline in industrial activity in the first quarter.

Referring to the official update that more than 80% of China’s 20,000 manufacturing subsidies have resumed work, Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at NAB, cast doubt on the actual progress.

“This news should have been embraced warmly by the market, however high frequency data such as pollution levels and traffic congestion gauges in Beijing do not at this stage corroborate the upbeat official message, keeping investors wary,” he said in a note Wednesday.

On Feb. 20 (Thursday), daily coal consumption of six major power plants was 42.5% less than the same time last year, according to Nomura, which has been tracking such metrics daily. The Japanese bank has also been following data on traffic congestion, passenger flows and new home sales in a bid to track the progress of China’s work resumption.

 

Dark Matter Impacts Whirling Cooling Device

Putin may or may not be a master of Seventh Dimensional Chess but right now he's just having fun playing 52 Pick-Up.

Bernie Sanders briefed by U.S. officials that Russia is trying to help his presidential campaign

And once again the US is losing. Help both sides, de-legitimize the eventual winner, let the losers have a permanent temper tantrum - it worked once for Putin, it will work twice. 

My secret hope is that the US has a counter plan which involves Putin laughing so hard he has a stroke and keels over.

I also query the conclusion of the US intel services that Putin would prefer to see Trump win. A Sanders (or Warren) fracking ban would be a boon to the value of Russian oil. 

Friday Afternoon WTF Is It With My Internet Open Thread

Hmm, I was on a roll until my spotty connection swallowed me whole.

Well, lets have an audience survey. Which new poll results has Democrat strategist more worried:

 A) "NEW POLL: Satisfaction With U.S. at Highest It’s Ever Been Since 2005"

or

 B) "ObamaCare favorability hits highest level: poll"

Which is worse news for Democrats - People are holding up OK in the Trump years, or their seemingly inevitable nominee is a socialist whose signature issue, Medicare For All, is losing salience?

They have a long, winding road to Milwaukee, where they will meet wrath and ruin. Maybe!

Debate Night And More

Mini-Mike hits the debate stage in Vegas. Can all his money buy him a box to stands on?

'Assault" Weapon Ban Fails In Virginia

A straw in the wind for the Democrats, but they'll ignore it:

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam's push to ban the sale of assault weapons failed on Monday after some of his fellow Democrats balked at the proposal.

Senators voted to shelve the bill for the year and ask the state crime commission to study the issue, an outcome that drew cheers from a committee room packed with gun advocates.

Four moderate Democrats joined Republicans in Monday's committee vote, rejecting legislation that would have prohibited the sale of certain semiautomatic firearms, including popular AR-15 style rifles, and banned the possession of magazines that hold more than 12 rounds.

Related: The Times took a deep dive into Mike Bloomberg's philanthropy and the ways it has left him with a lot of progressive groups feeling as if they owe him a favor or two. (No, I don't recall such a probe of the Clinton political machine vis a vis the Clinton foundations, but my memory isn't what I remember it to be...)

Anyway, the odd point is that Bloomberg was a huge backer of gun control groups through Everytown For Gun Safety but did not want to push for an assault weapons ban. Thought it was divisive relative to agenda items such as expanded background checks.

Here we go, from the Times:

Other members greatly appreciated the new direction from Everytown. “A structure began to be put into place, and we could avail ourselves of the data that was offered so we could speak more intelligently,” said June Rubin, a Moms Demand Action volunteer in New York. “So we’re focused and single-issue and highly recognizable and speaking with one voice, and it’s powerful.”

The policy agenda was to be focused on tightening background checks; more radical ideas like banning assault weapons were off the table. “There were people who were very, very troubled by that,” Ms. Rubin said. “I became very pragmatic.”

"Radical ideas"? How many liberals would describe an AWB as "radical"? Not the New Mike, as we flash forward to 2020:

In his campaign, Mr. Bloomberg has proposed a gun control agenda that goes far beyond Everytown’s, including a ban on assault-style weapons and a national licensing system.

Yeah, well. You're damn right he'll take away your guns.

 

Sunday Excitement

Away we go.

Clouds On The Blue Horizon

If I were a Democratic strategist I'd keep it very quiet. But I'd also have a long list of concerns. A couple of stray ones:

- Bernie can't win Pennsylvania. His fracking ban is poison, or so local Dems believe. But such a ban will boost his support in NY and CA, so there's that!

 - Can Gun Control Mike win Pennsylvania, not to mention Ohio or Michigan? The conventional wisdom says no, but maybe the Dems will find out!

 - Finally, where is the much-heralded, over-promised Bernie Wave of newly enthused arrival to the political process and the Democratic voting booths? Per the Times, turnout has been quite average in Iowa and New Hampshire - on the Democratic side. But what about on the Republican side?!?

Across the aisle, more than 150,000 voters — 151,602, to be precise — turned out for the Republican primary even though its outcome was never in doubt. That is extremely high for a noncompetitive primary. By comparison, about 54,000 people voted in the New Hampshire Democratic primary in 2012, and about 57,000 voted in the Republican primary in 2004.

Hmm, the enthusiasm gap may not favor Team Blue.

Now Its Barr v. Trump. Unless Its Not

AG Barr blasts Trump's tweets directed at DoJ generally and on the Roger Stone case specifically. The reported White House reaction is even-keeled:

About two hours after the interview aired, the White House issued a statement.

“The President wasn’t bothered by the comments at all and he has the right, just like any American citizen, to publicly offer his opinions. President Trump uses social media very effectively to fight for the American people against injustices in our country, including the fake news. The President has full faith and confidence in Attorney General Barr to do his job and uphold the law,” White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said.

Well, so far so good. Let's see what the 3 AM tweetstorm brings.

Andrew McCarthy explains the sentencing fiasco.

And set aside the details - thematically, Democrats howling about the sanctity of an independent Department of Justice fall on deaf Republican ears. That independence was quite threadbare when Obama and Lynch whitewashed the Hillary email "investigation". The only good thing you can say about it is they pretended to be discreet, mostly. OK, a couple of inappropriate Obama interviews, that ridiculous tarmac meeting between Lynch and Bill Clinton - just oopsies. And oh, yeah, how did people read the Horowitz report on the FBI/DoJ FISA process with Carter Page and come away assured of the absence of political motivation? Please. The official conclusion of no political motivation is hard to take seriously.

And now we have, from an irate Republican perspective, a bunch of DC establishment "Get Trump BAMN" attorneys showboating with a max sentence for Roger Stone, quite possibly hoping to precipitate this sort of "outrage". And it has been Mission Accomplished. Obama misbehaved, now Trump misbehaves, and away we go.

Angry, divided and confused - this is how Trump wins.

Back To The Future

With the "OMG Bernie, now what?" panic at the Times and every other mainstream Dem mouthpiece, I am having a bit of a flashback. Who said this, and when?

I have not found this glorification of the establishment center to be the mood of the American people. Indeed, most Americans see the establishment center as an empty, decaying void that commands neither their confidence nor their love.

Coulda been Bernie! But that was George McGovern from April 1972 as he sought the Democratic nomination.

And here we are in June of that year with the Dem establishment in mini-panic mode:

It is hard to believe that the impressive delegate total amassed by Mr. McGovern necessarily reflects considered voter backing for all the elements in his program, especially since he has himself had great difficulty in indicating just what his program entails, what it would cost or how it would answer specific national needs.

The primary spur for McGovern votes, it would appear, is a widespread questioning among the electorate of vested centers of authority, political and economic, and a consequent eagerness to identify with a candidate who gives an impression of earnestness in challenging established approaches to solving the country's problems.

And what to do? Not much:

But the stop‐McGovern forces will have to reckon with two compelling deterrents to overaggressiveness in attempting to muscle the South Dakota Senator aside. One is the absence of any potential rival with demonstrated mass appeal; the other—and even more forceful —is party awareness that a recourse to old‐fashioned wheeling and dealing to block Mr. McGovern at Miami Beach would so outrage all the reform elements active in his ascent that the Democrats might be irretrievably fragmented.

We are back in reruns.

To Dixville Notch And Beyond

Blomentum in Dixville Notch! Just wait'll Magic Mike gets on the ballot! Not to mention the debate stage.

Bloomberg pulls out win in tiny Dixville Notch, NH

Share The Pain, or, Why Should New York City Suffer Alone?

At the Friday night debate Bernie Sanders called for an end to cash bail as part of an overhaul of our criminal justice system. His timing is awkward because even progressive stalwarts such as NYC Mayor deBlasio now admit that the NY state no-bail experiment is unfolding badly.

San Francisco is entering the experiment, so we may yet see a real-time success of Bernie's progressive vision. Or reality may continue to be uncooperative. So much to look forward to in 2020! 

BACKGROUND: Sen. Sanders proposed a bill in 2018. No mention of risk assessments or public safety concerns in their summary but the bill mentions the issue.

Let me excerpt the public safety mechanism in San Francisco as described by the UPI:

Under the new policy, while prosecutors can seek to hold defendants without bail in serious felony cases such as those involving acts of violence or sexual assaults, they have been instructed to no longer seek money bail for suspects assessed by an algorithm-based system to pose little or no risk to public safety or for flight.

"By replacing money bail with a risk-based system, people who are safe to be released get released quickly with appropriate, non-monetary conditions, and those who pose a serious threat to public safety are detained, regardless of their wealth," Boudin said.

A version of the algo has been in use for a while and of course it has had occasional hiccups:

In this case, Mims was already on felony probation after an arrest last November for breaking into cars at Twin Peaks, a popular tourist spot. He did three months in jail.

Then on July 4, police arrested him again, this time for gun possession and parole violations.

But on July 11, San Francisco Superior Court Judge Sharon Reardon released Mims with "assertive case management" a pretrial program that requires check-ins. Judge Reardon followed the recommendation of what's called a "public-safety assessment" or PSA score. It's a computer-generated score that's used here to help calculate whether a suspect is a flight risk or likely to return to court.

French's partner calls Reardon's decision "insane."

"I mean, he's violated two probations. He was a convicted felon. And he had a gun charge just five days before the murder of Ed French! It's absolutely crazy. I think the judge has to be held accountable," he says.

Hmm. In NYC, an early train wreck involved a woman, Tiffany Harris, who would slap, spit at curse at other women (some or all Jews), be detained, released, and then recycled. Not exactly a non-violent offender, one might think. Eventually the publicity got too awkward and she was put in a psych ward.

Saturday All Day

Here we go again.

Don't Stop Smiling (Unless You Start Laughing)

Was it only three days ago I noted that elections are won in November, not February? My goodness, there is a lot to smile about and strong hints that the Democratic clown car explosion will exceed expectations.

The good news: Gallup has spent the week strafing the Democrats. Let's see:

Trump has a record job approval rating;

In a bit of a non-coincidence, a record percentage of Americans believe their financial position is better than a year ago. That eclipses the Clinton boom years by a statistically insignificant 59% to 58%, but beating Clintons by a hair is what Trump does. Also in that report, a new record high think next year will be even better. The sun is shining today AND it will come out tomorrow!

Not done yet: Also setting a new record is the percentage of Americans who feel happy or satisified with their lives. And before you ask, yes, Republicans (especially well-off and married ones) are over-represented in the Sunshine Gang, so yes, time for a group chortle. (No Dr. Evil laughs, PLEASE.)

But there is bad news looming... for Democrats. Jonathan Chait, trapped in amber as a reminder of what moderate Democrats think, outlines the impending meltdown of the Democratic primary. His gist - Biden is too weak to win but too strong to die so Bernie is likely to swoop, Trump-like, to the nomination. Which will end disastrously.

Reading it all risks a schadenfreude overdose; this may be a safe amount:

So it is entirely possible that, following South Carolina, Sanders will have won three or all four of the contests. If nobody has emerged as a viable alternative by then, Michael Bloomberg’s campaign will be stepping in. It is extremely hard to estimate the probability of success of a candidate who has skipped the first four races. FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives Bloomberg less than a one percent chance of winning.

To be sure, if Bloomberg is the last Democrat standing against Sanders, he may well attract substantial support from Democratic elected officials and put up a strong fight. Still, he would face enormous opposition from the left. This is, after all, a billionaire who endorsed George W. Bush in 2004. And while the left has previously whipped itself into an angry frenzy against, successively, O’Rourke, Biden, Harris, and Buttigieg, the rage against Bloomberg would reach a new level.

At that point, the victory scenario would involve a long, bloody struggle all the way to the convention, with the Sanders movement claiming at every step of the way that the party is rigging the race against them, culminating in a convention where his enraged supporters will again try to shout down the proceedings. Unless one of the non-Bloombergs can somehow get off the mat and defeat Sanders, this is probably the best-case scenario for liberals at this point. It seems more probable that Sanders crushes the field and brings his historically unique suite of liabilities to the ticket.

Now obviously Team Sanders already believes the DNC is out to thwart them, again. Left unmentioned by Chait - Bloomberg is basically buying the DNC. He hosts "fundraisers" but won't take people's money - if they want to write a check he points them to the DNC or Swing Left. 

I am just guessing but I don't think that will leave Sanders and his supporters feeling the love.

Well. A week from now (or a tweet from now) this may all be ashes, but today? So far, so good!

Send Better Fixers

In the Iowa Update du Jour Bernie Sanders will claim the popular vote (both rounds) and may eke out a win in the SDE tally, or State Delegate Equivalents. Apparently Team Sanders organized new satellite caucuses and is turning in great results from them.

Uh, satellite caucuses? Say what? Let's give credit where due - the Iowa State Democrats really leaned into accommodating Bernie and implementing Operation Own Goal:

In particular, the campaign focused heavily on bringing people out to the satellite caucuses that were held across the state and in other parts of the world for Iowans who couldn’t make it to the 7 p.m. caucuses. This was the first year the party hosted satellite caucuses, and no other campaign seems to have invested serious resources in turning those voters out. With 41 state delegates available to be swept up, and fewer than 25 delegates currently separating Pete Buttigieg and Sanders, they could end up making the difference when the delegate count is finalized.

The first caucus was held in Tbilisi, Georgia, of all places and reports are that Sanders led the delegates there. Another was held in St. Petersburg, Florida, where former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is heavily on the airwaves. The first in Iowa was held at a UFCW union hall in Ottumwa, with Sanders winning all 14 of the final votes to net four precinct delegates, a relatively large pickup. At Drake University in Des Moines, workers and students went overwhelmingly for Sanders, giving him five delegates and Sen. Elizabeth Warren two, meaning that he netted five relative to Buttigieg....

In all, there were 87 satellite caucuses. According to Iowa Democratic Party rules, the total delegate value of those caucuses will be determined by satellite turnout and in proportion to the total number of people who came out to vote in the regular caucuses. They are to be worth some percent of the total, meaning that the four delegates Sanders won in Ottumwa, for instance, could actually rise or shrink in the final analysis. But what we know about those caucuses suggests that Sanders may have won those caucuses by enough to overcome his deficit with Buttigieg, which at the time of writing sits at 23.987 delegates with 86 percent of the precincts reporting.

Great. Now let's have the Democrats rewrite the rules for health care and pharmaceutical development.

IN OTHER NEWS: The sun rose in the East and the Senate acquitted Trump. The mini-surprises were a Romney defection but no aisle-crossing from Manchin (D, WV) or Sinema (D, AZ).

Meanwhile, Back In Iowa...

More results have trickled in. At last look, 538 had 71% of the votes. Their prediction jibes with that of the NY Times Upshot: Sanders will probably have more total votes (both first and second round) and Buttigieg will probably get more delegates. Why? Sort of an Electoral Pre-School effect:

So far, Sen. An urban areas and college towns, which punch a bit below their weight in terms of delegates.

I wouldn't spend much more time delving into the details of the Iowa Way - After what one wag described as an explosive shower of radioactive clowns I doubt these caucuses will be first in the nation again.

State Of The Union

My goodness, what else can go right for Trump before today's State of the Union?

 - The Democrats running their Iowa caucuses make a strong case for the Electoral College as their radioactive clown car explodes in a shower of No Results.

 - Gallup tells us Trump's job approval is a Personal Best of 49% as he awaits his acquittal tomorrow.

 - And the Dow is up 500 to near-record territory (the NASDAQ is at a new high) as... due, we guess to some combo of reduced coronavirus fears and (some cynics say!) a newfound respect for the DNC determination to Stop Bernie.

Look - elections are won in November, not February. But we can agree that for Team Trump this is setting up nicely.

All the Democrats had to do was not be crazy, and maybe even project an air of competence. Missions Unaccomplished! Trump ought to have the same basic goals - be capable and not crazy. Doable!

Caucus Night Open Thread

Iowa takes its star turn tonight. And yes, the news about Rush is a bummer.

Super Sunday

Is it just me or has this been an unusually under-hyped Super Bowl? The death of Laker great Kobe Bryant took a lot of air out of the sports world balloon.

Well. I may have rooted for San Francisco back when they were led by Notre Dame's own Joe Montana and battling the other Evil Empire, the Dallas Cowboys. But as a general rule I can't root for California teams so its Kansas City for me.

Bring On The Verdict!

Only two of the four fence-sitting Republican Senators (Murkowski and Romney) will vote to hear witnesses, so barring a surprise the Senate trial is expected to wind down next week. Iowa caucuses Monday, Trump's State of the Union on Tuesday night, Trump's acquittal on Wednesday - who makes these schedules?

Going Gentle Into That Good Night

We seem to be in the late innings of the impeachment "drama". Per the NY Times:

Republicans are optimistic they will be able to wrap up President Trump’s impeachment trial without hearing from additional witnesses like the former national security adviser, John R. Bolton. But Democrats are hinting at a gambit to frustrate the Republicans’ plans, though Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, has refused to tip his hand.

A gambit to stretch this out so the nation will ignore the Super Bowl, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Real Men of Genius are working on this. And Women! (No word on whom Warren envisions as Not-So-Free Speech Czar but I bet it'll be a doozy.)

 

Freaking Democrats

The Times has a somewhat surprising addition to the long list of Things About Trump That Freak Out Democrats:

Trump’s Digital Advantage Is Freaking Out Democratic Strategists

Left and right agree on one point. The president’s re-election campaign is way ahead online.

Huh. I'm old enough to remember when the Democrats edge in hip, progressive techies pointed to their everlasting dominance of internet politics. Well, that was soooo 2008. And 2012. Of course, neither President Howard Dean nor Senator Ned Lamont (now Governor!) were available for comment.

I have to say, the tech is cool, in a surveillance-state sort of way:

In a blog post published in November, a year before the 2020 election, Brian Burch, the president of CatholicVote.org, a socially conservative advocacy group, announced that in Wisconsin alone his organization had identified 199,241 Catholics “who’ve been to church at least 3 times in the last 90 days.”

Nearly half of these religiously observant parishioners, Burch wrote, “91,373 mass-attending Catholics — are not even registered to vote!” CatholicVote.org is looking for potential Trump voters within this large, untapped reservoir — Republican-leaning white Catholics who could bolster Trump’s numbers in a battleground state.

Burch, whose organization opposes abortion and gay marriage, made his plans clear:

That is a lot of potential right-wing voters to target. And how were they found? Ah, well...

How did Catholic Vote come up with these particular church attendance numbers for 199,241 Catholics? With geofencing, a technology that creates a virtual geographic boundary, enabling software to trigger a response when a cellphone enters or leaves a particular area — a church, for example, or a stadium, a school or an entire town.

Geofencing is just one of the new tools of digital campaigning, a largely unregulated field of political combat in which voters have little or no idea of how they are being manipulated, in which traditional disclosure requirements are inoperative and key actors are anonymous. It is a weapon of choice. Once an area is geofenced, commercial data companies can acquire the mobile phone ID numbers of those within the boundary.

I'll be damned. But since I have been slack on church attendance, damned or not I won't be targeted.

Andrew McCarthy On Bolton And Surprises

Andrew McCarthy has been skeptical of this impeachment process (as have I) but he is highly critical of the Trump defense "strategy" - Bolton has been a joker in the deck for a while (his proposed book manuscript has been circulating in the White House since late December). Why risk surprises, or especially non-surprises?

For months, I’ve been arguing that the president’s team should stop claiming there was no quid pro quo conditioning the defense aid Congress had authorized for Ukraine on Kyiv’s conducting of investigations the president wanted. Trials and impeachment itself are unpredictable. You don’t know what previously undisclosed facts might emerge during the trial that could turn the momentum against you. So you want to mount your best defense, the one that can withstand any damaging new revelations.

Here, the president’s best defense has always been that Ukraine got its security aid, and President Volodymyr Zelensky got his coveted high-profile audience with the president of the United States (albeit at the U.N., rather than at the White House). Kyiv barely knew defense aid was being withheld, the very temporary delay had no impact whatsoever on Ukraine’s capacity to counter Russian aggression, and Zelensky was required neither to order nor to announce any investigation of the Bidens.

I thought in September that Team Trump released the transcript of the fateful phone call in order to tee up a "You're Damn Right I Ordered the Code Red" defense. One more thing I wish I had been right about.

Meanwhile, Back In Australia...

I frittered away the morning watching (on DVR) Nadal beat Kyrgios in a match that was closer than the 3-1 set score might suggest. And bad boy Nick Kyrgious had a redemptive, high-character week, so good for him.

But to preserve suspense I maintain a news blackout. Anything happening?

Sunday Morning

Are you ready for some football? Bummer for you, but wait another week...