JustOneMinute

Merry Christmas

Happy Holiday, Merry Christmas, and a Happier New Year.

More Pardons

Trump pardons more people. Bold faced names incude Manafort, Stone and Jared Kushner's dad.

What About Ivanka?

I am very intrigued by the appearance and reception of Ivanka Trump at a campaign appearance in Georgia. This might be a Big Deal for the Jan 2021 Senate run-offs and a harbinger of "Trump: The Next Generation" in 2024.

Happy Holidays!

I agree with Ilhan Omar (A Christmas Miracle!): youngsters like AOC have a civic duty to promote the vaccine but they ought to hold off on personally getting vaccinated until higher-risk folks get a shot.

As to the AOC rationale - the government made me do it! - well, what a socialist.

AOC said she found out she and other members of Congress would have access to the vaccine because of the 'continuity of governance' plan, 'basically a national security measure,' she explained to her Instagram followers

Lead-y or greedy?

And for a proud winner in a national science fair, she's not interested in vaccine science. She explained on Instagram that "immunity starts to kick in" after the follow-up shot in three weeks. Groan. Pfizer had impressive efficacy results roughly ten days after the first dose, but the second dose gets protection to full throttle.

Since the trial and approval were based on two doses that's what we are doing but if I were King For A Day I'd strongly consider using every available dose on the high-risk unvaccinated and hitting folks with a second dose as they become available (probably well past 21 days). Of course, if the King guesses wrong then a lot of front-line and elderly don't get adequate protection. Not Good! But as King I'd be bold enough to bring the DH to the National League, so I'd be bold enough to do this.

Variant COVID

The UK is being locked out of Europe based on fears of a new, more contagious COVID strain. Science Magazine has more.

Waiting For The Defense Bill Veto

Will he or won't he, and when? Trump promised to veto the defense bill but has until Dec 23 to do so. Congress will be home for the holidays but might come back before New Years. Or they might assemble the old Congress and the new one on Jan 3 and let the outgoers override the veto in the morning. Whether elderly retirees will agree to make the trip during a pandemic compounds the suspense.

Trump's rationales include Section 230 modifications to go after Facebook and Twitter and non-renaming of the military bases named for Confederate traitors generals. Some of those names were picked for new WWI bases under Lost Causer Woodrow Wilson. Others were named under FDR. In each case, promoting the US Army to martial Southern white boys was a marketing strategy that is now past the sell-by date. [Full disclosure - On this issue I channel the ghosts of my New England ancestors on this, some of whom died fighting for the Right Side.]

From Politico quoting Trump's tweet:

"I will Veto the Defense Bill, which will make China very unhappy. They love it," Trump tweeted. "Must have Section 230 termination, protect our National Monuments and allow for removal of military from far away, and very unappreciative, lands. Thank you!"

 

Guardians Of The Stratosphere

Team Trump is just writing SNL skits now:

Space Force troops to be called 'guardians'

They Like It! FDA Panel Recommends Moderna Vaccine

In a discussion that must have been as exciting as debating whether the Kansas Chiefs have a pretty good team, the FDA advisory panel endorsed the Moderna vaccine. The vote was 20-0, swamping the desultory 17-4 vote in favor of Pfizer. To Be Fair, the Pfizer approval was for 16 years old and over and Moderna was for 18 and over; one panel member voted "No" on Pfizer to save the children.

Something Must Be Happening

Here we go again. The Christmas Blitz meets the Big Nor'easter! I'm prepping the snowblower now, since I got a little delirious the last time we had a big storm.

On Past Wisconsin

The Magical Mystery Kraken Tour will be released from Wisconsin - the Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected Trump's various legal claims. And the fraud allegations? Given a chance to present evidence, Team Trump agreed to a very tame stipulation and chose to bet on their legal arguments about rule changes.

Are You Ready For Some Football?!?

Sunday is here!

Vaccine Yes, Texas No

Two studies in foregone conclusions came to an end on Friday evening.

The FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine. Let's roll up those sleeves!

And the Supreme Court tossed the Texas/Paxton suit. IMHO, the big suspense around the Supreme Court decision was whether the Justices would deliver a scathing 9-0 decision or just say "LOL No" and add a frowny face emoji. Frowny face it is! Obviously, others had higher hopes, and maybe Texas AG Paxton will get his pardon. 

They Like It!

The FDA advisory panel pondered the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine and recommended an Emergency Use Authorization by a 17-4 vote.

I'd be curious to know what prompted four No votes. since this vaccine looks to be safe and effective in what is clearly an emergency situation. Let's roll up those sleeves!

UPDATE: One of the four "No" votes explains:

Dr. Archana Chatterjee, a member of the FDA advisory panel who voted against recommending Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, told CNBC on Friday that her opposition was because she did not believe 16- and 17-year-olds should be included right now.

In a “Squawk Box” interview, Chatterjee said she would have voted “yes” had the question before her been different. “I want to be very clear that I am fully supportive of the emergency use authorization for the use of this vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech for adults 18 years and older,” said Chatterjee, a pediatric infectious disease specialist who serves as dean of the Chicago Medical School.

The FDA committee recommended emergency authorization of the vaccine for people who are 16 years old and older.

Well. She knew she didn't have a deciding vote but c'mon, man - "Emergency!" has meaning.

The "Big One" - A Disgrace From Texas

Trump declares it to be "The Big One"! Here is the controversial Supreme Court filing with the ludicrous statistical analysis included. A sampling:

Chances of Biden winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin independently after [Trump's]

early lead is less than one in a quadrillion:

 

Uh huh. So basically, a Biden comeback was less likely than an asteroid strike even though plenty of folks had warned about Blue Mirages and Red Mirages before Election night. Everybody, with the apparent exception of this analyst (Prof. Cicchetti) understood that in most states Democrats were the bigger users of absentee ballots. Consequently, in the states that counted absentee ballots as they came in before the election, Biden would stat election night with a big lead into which Trump would gnaw as the night wore on. In states that set absentee ballots aside and counted them after the polls were closed, that would reverse - an early Trump lead would shrink and maybe reverse.

 

The "one in a quadrillion" analysis rests on the premise that the late-counted absentee votes were drawn from the same pool as the initial votes. If Trump got 52% of the first 90% of votes but then got less than 32% of the remainder, he'd lose. Unlikely? INCREDIBLY unlikely IF all the votes are coming from the same pool. HIGHLY likely if the late votes were widely understood to be from a county or process (eg, absentee) that tilted to Biden.

 

As a bonus contribution to our understanding of politics the professor explained that Biden backers of 2020 were behaving the same as Hillary backer in 2016. If you think an election is simply a random draw from the same people with the same partisan tilt from one election to the next, this is an incredibly unlikely result (Hmm, campaigns - how do they work?). In reality, what is incredibly unlikely is that the Supreme Court will even begin to take this seriously. NO, they have not taken up the case yet.

 

Lest you doubt, a snippet.

 

 

 

This filing is a disgrace. The state AGs hopping on board know this is a loser but they evidently see personal political upside in staying on the same page with Trump and his ardent followers.

Stone Cold Lloyd Austin

General Austin is an American hero and a solid pick for Defense Secretary. Especially when the leading alternative was a woman (undoubtedly polished and brilliant) who has made a career fighting through the swamps and trenches of academia, think tanks, and the Pentagon bureaucracy.

Austin and Biden overlapped in Iraq in 2010-2011 when Biden was leading the US effort down the drain. But they also overlapped when Austin began leading the pushback against ISIS, so there's that.

Nuke The President!

The State Dept has concluded, in a no-longer-secret report, that some of our diplomats abroad were nuked:

WASHINGTON — The most probable cause of a series of mysterious afflictions that sickened American spies and diplomats abroad in the past several years was radiofrequency energy, a type of radiation that includes microwaves, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has concluded in a report.

The conclusion by a committee of 19 experts in medicine and other fields cited “directed, pulsed radiofrequency energy” as “the most plausible mechanism” to explain the illness, which came to be known as Havana syndrome, though they said that they could not rule out other possible causes and that secondary factors may have contributed to symptoms, according to a copy of the report obtained by The New York Times.

I assume the Secret Service freaked out about this long ago but still - what is the likely size/range of the weapon and what is a dangerous exposure time? Getting the President disoriented (OK, even more disoriented, either this guy of the next) would be a BFD. What does it mean for Presidential travel? If he's appearing at a NY fundraiser, does the venue need to be radiation-proofed?

Along with The Beast, the Secret Service needs a Presidential Faraday cage. Or the President could wear a helmet, like Magneto.

From "See You In Court" To "See You Later, Alligator"

Team Trump had a tough day Friday.

Donald Trump’s brutal day in court

Several of the most devastating opinions, both Friday and in recent weeks, have come from conservative judges and, in some federal cases, Trump appointees.

President Donald Trump and his legal allies earned a platinum sombrero Friday, striking out five times in a matter of hours in states pivotal to the president’s push to overturn the election results — and losing a sixth in Minnesota for good measure.

It was another harsh milestone in a monthlong run of legal futility, accompanied by sharp rebukes from county, state and federal judges who continue to express shock at the Trump team’s effort to simply scrap the results of an election he lost. Several of the most devastating opinions, both Friday and in recent weeks, have come from conservative judges and, in some federal cases, Trump appointees.

I get that plenty of conservative judges, even Trump appointees, rose through the system with the support of the Republican Establishment and probably are not Trump loyalists. But law is law - partisanship notwithstanding, at some point, if even maybe-allies aren't taking your side, that may be a clue to take a hint.

Somethings Happening!

I keep having lost days, and I'm not even drinking. Maybe I should start!

Katie, Barr The Election!

AG Barr was a bit of a wet blanket for the election conspiracists out there.

Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud

Barr wants Sidney Powell to get crackin':

Barr didn’t name Powell specifically but said: “There’s been one assertion that would be systemic fraud and that would be the claim that machines were programmed essentially to skew the election results. And the DHS and DOJ have looked into that, and so far, we haven’t seen anything to substantiate that.”

In the campaign statement, Giuliani claimed there was “ample evidence of illegal voting in at least six states, which they have not examined.”

I believe it has been reported that the DoJ will continue to look high and low. Barr certainly implied that by saying they have found no evidence of widespread fraud "to date".

Giving Durham special counsel status is the buried lede. Makes it a bit harder for Team Biden to deep-six the whole thing.

Marc Rich Redux

From CNN:

Justice Department investigating potential presidential pardon bribery scheme, court records reveal

Marc Rich clearly bought a pardon from Bill Clinton but the investigation led nowhere.

Why Waste Your Time Voting?

The brilliant messaging team in the White House is now wondering about Georgia and the impact of "Stop the Steal" on Republican turnout.

In my opinion, these races should be easy. The Democrats wanted to Stop Trump and they won their war; time for them to go home. Republicans, on the other hand, wanted to support Trump but also Stop the Crazy Left. Mission Unaccomplished! OK, almost - Manchin of W VA does not rely on progressive support and has indicated he won't be backing a kooky agenda. Still, why should Reps leave the door ajar? Go Mitch 2020!

Sunday Afternoon Action

The Tampa Bay Bradys are doing nothing against Kansas City. Currently trail 17-0.

Kick Like A Girl

Finally, COVID delivers a feel-good moment for 2020 as Vanderbilt football becomes Must-See TV (SportsCenter highlights subdivision): Due to illness among their specialists, the Vandy football team will suit up Sarah Fuller, the goalie for their national championship women's soccer team. Go, girl!

Pardon Their Coverage

Resistance "Journalists" belly flop on the Flynn pardon.

For an example of an inarguably corrupt purchased pardon we turn to Bill Clinton and Marc Rich. However, despite investigations and hearings no crimes were charged.

For pardons arguably linked to obstruction of justice we can turn to Bush 41. His Christmas Eve pardon of Caspar Weinberger effectively ended the seemingly immortal Walsh investigation into Iran/Contra. And of course Wild Bill Clinton had entrants in the obstruction category, notably Susan McDougal of Whitewater fame.

Say Hello To Amy Coney Barrett

Cuomo's treatment of religious gatherings gets slapped down by the Supreme Court.

Cuomo's dodge of withdrawing the restrictions and then arguing the court did not need to rule did not work. The embittered among us recall that NY State successfully tried a similar ploy last spring with a gun related restriction.

Out Like Flynn

Trump to pardon Flynn?

To Be Fair, In His Professional Life Trump Has Presumably Had Good Lawyers

Trump is not happy with his legal team's performance, based on plausible leaks from folks familiar with his thinking. Well, nor is Rush.

I'm sure that in his earlier life as real estate mogul Trump dealt with top legal talent on a regular basis (and Mickey Cohen!). This isn't that.

Just A Head Fake

Hmm, the kraken appears to have been released from a hamster cage.

In scathing opinion, federal judge dismisses Trump campaign lawsuit in Pennsylvania

Republican party "leaders" are continuing their slow-rolling intervention. Rep. Senator Toomey of PA praises the Federal judge as "a longtime conservative Republican whom I know to be a fair and unbiased jurist", praises Biden and Harris as good people with whom he mostly disagrees, praises Trump's notable accomplishments in office, and says its time for Trump to move on.

The Trump-related passage:

“Make no mistake about it, I am deeply disappointed that President Trump and Vice President Pence were not re-elected. I endorsed the president and voted for him. During his four years in office, his administration achieved much for the American people. The tax relief and regulatory overhauls that President Trump enacted with Republicans in Congress produced the strongest economy of my adult life. He also should be applauded for forging historic peace agreements in the Middle East, facilitating the rapid development of a COVID-19 vaccine through Operation Warp Speed, appointing three outstanding Supreme Court justices, and keeping America safe by neutralizing ISIS and killing terrorists like Qasem Soleimani and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

 

“To ensure that he is remembered for these outstanding accomplishments, and to help unify our country, President Trump should accept the outcome of the election and facilitate the presidential transition process.”

Letting the process play out may eventually prove to have been a helpful approach.

That said, after staring at his description of Trump's legacy, there's no mention of tough on China, trade and immigration enforcement. IF those remain closer to the mainstream of American politics its an impressive legacy.

Well. As to immigration, right now the debate seems to be presented as "children in cages" versus "abolish ICE". Lots of ground in the middle but can out two parties meet there?

Affidavit From The North Country

Powerline looks at an affidavit filed as part of the Trump vote fraud case. The lede is deeply buried, but patient readers eventually get a shock - the analysis demonstrates vote fraud by showing that total votes exceeded registered voters and area population. Unfortunately, to reach that conclusion the analyst matched Michigan votes with Minnesota voting districts, or something.  Oops.

Here’s the problem: the townships and precincts listed in paragraphs 11 and 17 of the affidavit are not in Michigan. They are in Minnesota. Monticello, Albertville, Lake Lillian, Houston, Brownsville, Runeberg, Wolf Lake, Height of Land, Detroit Lakes, Frazee, Kandiyohi–these are all towns in Minnesota. I haven’t checked them all, but I checked a lot of them, and all locations listed in paragraphs 11 and 17 that I looked up are in Minnesota, with no corresponding township in Michigan. This would have been obvious to someone from this state, but Mr. Ramsland is a Texan and the lawyers are probably not natives of either Minnesota or Michigan.

Evidently a researcher, either Mr. Ramsland or someone working for him, was working with a database and confused “MI” for Minnesota with “MI” for Michigan. (The postal code for Minnesota is MN, while Michigan is MI, so one can see how this might happen.) So the affidavit, which addresses “anomalies and red flags” in Michigan, is based largely, and mistakenly, on data from Minnesota.

This is a catastrophic error, the kind of thing that causes a legal position to crash and burn. Trump’s lawyers are fighting an uphill battle, to put it mildly, and confusing Michigan with Minnesota will at best make the hill steeper. Credibility once lost is hard to regain. Possibly Trump’s lawyers have already discovered this appalling error, and have undertaken to correct it. But the Ramsland Affidavit was filed in Georgia just yesterday.

Not helpful. Trump's self-styled 'elite strike force team' picked a bad day to give up caffeine.

Jim Geraghty of NR does a good job every day. Today he tees up the classic line from A Few God Men:

Americans Deserve the Truth, Even If It’s Unpleasant

On the menu today: a blunt message about who is conning whom in the aftermath of the 2020 elections.

You Are Being Conned

You're being conned if you take Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell seriously, that is.

Stephen Moore of the Club For Growth and now a White House counselor, says its time for Trump to move on. To be fair and IIRC he does say that Trump may have a 20% chance with his legal cases (I am now locked out of the article.)

Running The Double-Reverse

Two Republicans initially voted AGAINST certifying the controversial election tallies in Wayne County, Michigan. This would have kept Detroit-area votes off the board and created a narrow pathway to a Trump victory in MI. Wild, right?

Under enormous pressure (presumably including death threats) they switched their votes a few hours later, certifying the results and kicking the problem up to the state level. System working? Not so fast!

A day later they rescinded their reversal, or tried to. It appears they aren't legally entitled to a do-over here, but that is why we have courts and under-employed lawyers.

Whatever. Flipping Michigan will not, by itself, take the election back from Biden. But a few more hats, a few more rabbits, and who can say? As long as Trumps lawyers think they'll get paid this show will go on.

Flood The Swamp

The business-friendly, but mainly donor-friendly Clinton Restoration proceeds apace.

A Speedbump On The Democratic Road To An Eternally Emerging Demographic Majority

The NY Times reports on liberal puzzlement regarding their less-than expected supported among different ethnic groups.

My favorite insight - Asian-Americans in California do NOT favor Affirmative Action! How that could possibly surprise anyone who follows the college admission wars is beyond me, but I've never claimed to be smart enough to be a Dem strategerist.

The Hispanic panic is a but more intriguing:

Latinos, too, appear sharply divided. Prominent Latino nonprofit and civil rights organizations endorsed the affirmative action proposition even as all 14 of California’s majority-Latino counties voted it down.

Latinos make up more than half of San Bernardino County’s population, although significantly fewer turn out to vote. More residents there voted on the affirmative action proposition than for president, rejecting it by a margin of 28 percentage points. In rural Imperial County, in the southeastern corner of the state, 85 percent of the population is Latino. The voters there who gave Joseph R. Biden Jr. a nearly 27-point margin of victory went against the affirmative action measure by 16 percentage points.

I can think of several explanations for the Hispanic revolt but here's one that will never occur to the Times - the Democrats devoted the summer to "Black" Lives Matter, not "Hispanic" Lives Matter. Supporting Affirmative Action when the favored beneficiary is a different group may have struck some Hispanics as an own-goal.

I shouldn't knock this reporting as insight-free:

The results suggest that Democrats may need to adjust their strategy...

"Adjust their strategy"?!? NO WAY! I'd expect them to just scream "Stop Hating, Hater" a bit louder, but OK, that might be too dumb even for them.

Are You Ready For Some Football And Masters Golf?!?

Big day!

Running Out Of Ways To Win

Trump's legal team is not putting a lot of points on the board.

We Hear From Karl Rove / And John Yoo, Too

Karl Rove says this election is all over except the acceptance. He's more Rep Est. than Trumper but he does know polls and politics.

If that link is firewalled, below are some fair use excerpts. And I always like it when factoids align with common sense:

But the nature of this enthusiasm differed by party. The Fox News Voter Analysis found 51% of Biden supporters voted more against Mr. Trump than for the Democratic candidate, while 79% of Mr. Trump’s backers voted more for him than against Mr. Biden.

That suggests Biden may not be drawing in a deep well of personal support as he vexes us with policy announcements. On the other hand, he will satisfy half his voters if he can wake up in the morning and NOT be Trump. OK, "waking up" may not be easy (and how would we tell?) but Joe can handle the next bit.

More:

Mr. Trump is now pursuing legal challenges in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada, and there will be an automatic recount in Georgia, given Mr. Biden’s 0.29-point lead there. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is correct that Mr. Trump is “100% within his rights” to go to court over concerns about fraud and transparency. But the president’s efforts are unlikely to move a single state from Mr. Biden’s column, and certainly they’re not enough to change the final outcome.

There are only three statewide contests in the past half-century in which recounts changed the outcome: the 1974 New Hampshire Senate race, the 2004 Washington governor’s contest, and the 2008 Minnesota Senate election. The candidates in these races were separated, respectively, by 355, 261 and 215 votes after Election Day.

These margins aren’t much like today’s. Mr. Biden led Wednesday in Wisconsin by 20,540 votes, Pennsylvania by 49,064, Michigan by 146,123, Arizona by 12,614, Nevada by 36,870 and Georgia by 14,108.

And

To win, Mr. Trump must prove systemic fraud, with illegal votes in the tens of thousands. There is no evidence of that so far. Unless some emerges quickly, the president’s chances in court will decline precipitously when states start certifying results, as Georgia will on Nov. 20, followed by Pennsylvania and Michigan on Nov. 23, Arizona on Nov. 30, and Wisconsin and Nevada on Dec. 1. By seating one candidate’s electors, these certifications will raise the legal bar to overturn state results and make it even more difficult for Mr. Trump to prevail before the Electoral College meets Dec. 14.

TV networks showed jubilant crowds in major cities celebrating Mr. Biden’s victory; they didn’t show the nearly equal number of people who mourned Mr. Trump’s defeat. U.S. politics remains polarized and venomous. Closing out this election will be a hard but necessary step toward restoring some unity and political equilibrium. Once his days in court are over, the president should do his part to unite the country by leading a peaceful transition and letting grievances go.

I don't think his departing idea that Trump should let grievances go is a serious suggestion reflecting his understanding of the man. I am not sure of his goal there.

UPDATE: Legal hard case John Yoo is bringing the cold water:

“He has the right to mount legal challenges, but we should be clear that these are Hail Mary passes we might think of in American football".

Doug Flutie! But several times over, since Trump needs to flip several states.

“None of these cases really look like they have a very high probability of winning,” Yoo said. “On the other hand, I think that Trump has every right to and demand that all the states be sure about the votes, so that we all have confidence in the election. But I’ll say, looking at past cases, these are very hard cases to prove and generally they don’t result in changes in the votes totals on the order by which President Trump lost to Joe Biden.” 

Well. Rep Est. is circling. As they should, BTW, and for the 2015 establishment survivors this election was Liberation Day. Or week.

Tom Brady, What?!?

What did I see last night? Brady and the Bucs were ghastly.

OH, YEAH: Very encouraging news on the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trials:

Pfizer, BioNTech say Covid vaccine is more than 90% effective—‘great day for science and humanity’

The Stalemate Rally continues!

Dow futures surge more than 1,700 points, putting Wall Street on track for a record-setting open

Yea. Timing is everything.

Is There A Winner?

Seems like its Contention 4, America 0, but who knows?

Biden been declared the winner, there are too many states that aren't that close, but Trump hasn't quit.

Maybe Trump will follow the Hillary 2016 playbook - after conceding the race she joined a no-hope recount effort just to assure her supporters that every stone had been turned and then thrown.

Team Trump should spend a few minutes in Philly. Cobble together a Steal Dossier, fire up the FBI for some ludicrous FISA warrants, and away we go! Flip the House in 2022, impeach Biden... never gets old. [Uhhh, it was old the first time..]

The Center Holds!

The Blue Wave Good-Bye wipes out - losing House seats, failing to flip the Senate and getting shut out at the statehouse level was not quite how the Dems drew it up.

From the WaPo:

“We need to not ever use the word ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again. . . . We lost good members because of that,” Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who narrowly leads in her reelection bid, said heatedly. “If we are classifying Tuesday as a success . . . we will get f---ing torn apart in 2022.”

The WaPo links to a tape of the Spanberger call. She is actually impressive, and its fun to hear her ask her colleagues to keep this off the record and not leak it. Ooops. (Although she may have leaked it herself. Hall of mirrors here.)

Its nice to learn that Tlaib of the Odd Squad is as impossible with her colleagues as she is with Republicans. Everyone who disagrees with her is racist!

Liberals, meanwhile, fired back. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, argued that Democrats shouldn’t single out people and ideas that energize the party base. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a self-described democratic socialist, grew angry, accusing her colleagues of only being interested in appealing to White people in suburbia.

“To be real, it sounds like you are saying stop pushing for what Black folks want,” she said.

Assemble the circular firing squad.

As to What It Means - right now the Republicans have 48 Senate seats with four undecided. They lead in NC and Alaska and face two run-offs in Georgia.  They need to win three and might win all four.

However! If they manage to only creep to 50 seats, that means Kamala Harris breaks ties for Senate Majority LEaser and control of the Senate calendar and committee chairs. Not Good! But not a disaster! The parade of horribles people feared - ending the filibuster, adding DC and Puerto Rico to lock down four new Senate seats, packing the Supreme Court, and granting amnesty/citizenship to 10 million undocumented future Democrats - won't be happening after this chastening Election experience. Too many Dem Senators, starting with Manchin and the newbs from NC and Georgia, will be having a "there but for the grace of God" moment.

So, divided government. Not so bad. And given Biden's obvious infirmities, both parties can start jockeying as if its 2008 and both fields are wide open. (Yes, that should have been 2016 as well if not for the Hillary cram-down. Bygones.)

Miscount Every Vote

This is taking a while. Cocaine Mitch seems positioned to hold the Senate Leadership, although some Georgia run-offs will be fraught.

Biden may win one day soon, or not.

Interesting 2016 Vibe Developing

The Biden Blowout seems to be off the menu.

The NY Times is NOT doing their National Needle, which freaked out Democrats in 2016 as it swung inexorably from a 90% chance for Hillary to a 100% chance for Trump. This year there are too many problems due to huge absentee voting.

However, they have needles for three key states where the absentee voting can be counted and analyzed: FL, GA, and NC.

If Trump sweeps, we're probably in for a long couple of days. If Biden picks up one or two, Trump's path to victory gets very narrow.

Over the last couple of hours the odds of a Trump sweep have risen from 40% to 80%. VERY 2016 vibe.

And:

 

Election Day!

We'll get through this. Probably.

Dan McLaughlin at NR has a long essay turning the Trump/Biden coin before coming down.... NO SPOILERS. His gist - Trump is even weaker on character and competence than Biden, the Democrats are terrifying on policy and Biden lacks the principles or energy to rein in the left, but we have to choose.

Her makes an interesting point about the possible value of a rebuilding year, or two, or four:

Coalitions and the Right Time to Lose

Losing to this Democratic Party would be very bad. But: We live in a two-party system, and its natural equilibrium is an alternation of power. Moreover, a rise in presidential power for one party tends to produce an immediate reaction in the rest of the system for the other. That is even truer since people stopped electing presidents with divided government in the first place. We saw this under Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama, and Trump. It is possible that Trump is the end times for Republicans, but it is unlikely. In other words: Democrats have to win sooner or later, and we will again have to live with it, and we will again get our turn after that.

I could not in good conscience vote to make that happen, but what if Trump is really the worst possible Republican president? What if Biden is, by virtue of his age, the least likely Democratic president to get reelected on the strength of incumbency? What if a 6–3 Republican-appointed Supreme Court, with the oldest Republican appointee (Clarence Thomas) being 72, and only one Democratic appointee likely to step down in the next four years, is the safest of times for the nation to go blue? What if the 2022 Senate map looks not so bad under a President Biden, but ghastly under a second Trump term?

What if it really is true that it was good that Trump won in 2016, but is also good that the next four Republican years not be his? What if a Trump win will make the worst people and ideas in the Republican Party stronger, at the expense of the best? What if a Biden loss will make the worst people and ideas in the Democratic Party stronger, at the expense of the least-bad — as seems sure to happen? What if we still have a strong case, even with a narrow Democrat majority in the Senate, for stopping Court-packing and other insanity now? What if Trump is the only thing holding together an incoherent Democratic coalition, which needs the White House before it can tear itself to ribbons over an agenda Biden never really ran on? What if that coalition would only grow otherwise, so that the 2024 election after eight years of Trump is likely to give Democrats a much wider majority and mandate?

I do not, as a rule, believe in winning by losing. But we do have to lose eventually. A good football coach knows when to punt and get the ball back in better field position. Everything good about a second Trump administration would be better under a subsequent Republican, with less risk of a truly permanent defeat for conservatism.

Bill Belichick nods. His point that a Trump win will probably bring out the worst in both parties is a good one. And what about a Biden win?

Republicans complained after 2008 and 2012 that we lost by not running a true conservative. Nominating and then winning with Trump kinda/sorta vindicated that view, since Trump mostly held onto his new-found conservative positions, especially on judges. If Trump loses in 2020, purity of message may not identified as the problem.

I think (or certainly, hope) that Biden really is the temperamental centrist he portrayed in the primaries. In the Presidential campaign he's been chasing my vote, not the vote of my kids. I think the phrase "Reagan Democrats" has chafed Old Joe for decades and he wants to read about "Biden Republicans". IF post election analysis (will exit polls mean much this cycle?) shows a lot of disaffected Republicans for Biden that ought to embolden and empower the centrist Dems who have dragged Joe this far. It might also empower something like a "Sensible Center" on the Republican side as Reps try to lure the defectors home.

That said, Biden is running on fumes and follows polls rather than principles. But if polls tell him to be a centrist he won't object. His long-time aides are undoubtedly corporatist centrists, so his chief of staff pick and other nominations will be critical. If Elizabeth Warren is nominated as Treasury Secretary all bets are off. But she won't be!

As to Congress, Pelosi was quite firm in 2019 with the message that she did not regain the Speakership because AOC primaried a safe-seat timeserver. She won due to 30 swing-seat Democrats who weren't in a position to take crazy progressive votes.

Senate Majority Leader Schumer (if Mitch can't hold on!) will face a similar dynamic. Will a Senate with 51 Democrats that includes Joe Manchin and five of his ideological siblings really vote to pack the court and bring in DC and Puerto Rico as new states? Maybe! But probably not. ("Probably"? This is a hell of a thing to be betting on, right? Yet here we are.)

Beyond that, Biden and his strategery team surely remember Bill Clinton's come-uppance in 1994 and Obama's in 2010.

Clinton lost control of the House and Senate, leading to a long six years; Obama lost the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014, leaving him with a pen and a phone. One would hope the Democratic leadership has figured out the problem and won't try for "third time lucky".

However! There is a theory that 2020 might be the last election. The analogy is to elections in Muslim states that vote in a religious party - the laws are changed and the incoming party never leaves power. The 2020 peril is that Senate and House moderates are persuaded to hero up, vote in the two new states, pack the court, amnesty and grant the vote to ten million undocumented Democrats, and never lose either the House or Senate again. I mostly think this is about as likely as the impending "Trump coup" progressives enjoy getting wound up about, but... time will tell.

Tough times ahead regardless.

One Day More

Another day, another destiny...

Sorry, wrong revolution.

Sunday Action!

Here we go, Falling Back like nobody's business!

Last Gasp

The Hunter Biden thing won't change minds but here we go: a cybersecurity pro says the metadata confirms the authenticity of the emails.

The gist is that Gmail uses a "DKIM" protocol to authenticate emails and the Hunter email matches the e-signature of the sender. So the key email really is from Burisma.

However, my impression is that if someone hacked into, or otherwise gained access to the Burisma system, they could send out signed emails. Who among us has not had their email hacked, to the annoyance of everyone on our contact list?

Shenanigans in the Ukraine seem to be a theme to this story, so who knows?

From Wikipedia on DKIM:

As to the Hunter Biden thing changing minds, who ya gonna believe, me and Lyin' Ted Cruz, or our President?

Trump also continues to hone in on Hunter Biden in the closing days of the campaign, despite allies like Sen. Ted Cruz warning him that it’s not a winning final message. Trump even acknowledged as much in Florida. “I get a call from all the experts, right?” Trump roared to the crowd. “Guys that ran for president six, seven, eight times. Never got past the first round, but they’re calling me up, ‘Sir, you shouldn’t be speaking about Hunter. You shouldn’t be saying bad things about Biden because nobody cares.’ I disagree. Maybe that’s why I’m here and they’re not. But they say, ‘Talk about your economic success. Talk about 33.1 percent, the greatest in history.’ Now, look, if I do, I mean, how many times can I say it?”

I have not run for President six times. But any day now!

 

Texas A Toss-Up?

The Cook Political Report re-rates Texas as a toss-up and I may throw up. For reassurance, the betting site Predictit.org still has Trump at about 70% to carry it.

Meanwhile, in the upper Midwest, Wisconsin is a disaster for Trump.

Here We Go Again

ACB in! The vote was 52-48, with all Democrats a "No, Bite Me". IIRC (and I just looked it up yesterday) Gorsuch got three Dem votes (Manchin, Heidi Unspellable and Sen. Forgettable); Kavanaugh got a Yes from Manchin.

Susan Collins voted No in a desperate bid to save her seat in two weeks, so yes, Republicans overcame bipartisan opposition.

Running - How Does It Work?

Daniel Jones of the Football Giants delivered an instant NFL classic - an 80 yard untouched run with the endzone 90 yards away.

But everybody wants to get into the act! In an absolutely wild ending to a Major League game (but common in Little League!) the Dodgers mishandle the ball like a hot potato while the potential game-ending run roars around the bases, stumbles, falls, somersaults, and scores! 

Do let me add - Fall guy Randy Arozarena is a stud athlete with a background in gymnastics and street dance. Oh, yeah, he can play a little baseball too, since his nine playoff home runs are a new record. GO Rays!

PICKY, PICKY: You want to say he didn't somersault, he rolled? Doesn't matter - I'll be telling my grandkids he cartwheeled into a back flip. They can look it up!

 

Debate Post-Game

Not so bad! In a more restrained and effective debate performance Trump may have even picked up support, but I still think its too little too late.

However, if there are still minds to be changed Biden may have helped change them. The "All The News We Need To Bury" Times told us in paragraph eight that the Biden Gaffe-omatic didn't act up:

Significantly, Mr. Biden made no serious error of the sort that could haunt him in the final days of a race in which he’s leading.

In the - I kid you not - final paragraph the Times includes an 'oh, yeah, there was an awkward moment when Biden said he'd shut down the oil industry':

At the end of the debate, Mr. Biden said he would push the country to “transition from the oil industry,” adding that “the oil industry pollutes significantly” and that he would end federal subsidies. Sensing an opening, Mr. Trump said “that’s a big statement” and then invoked a series of states with energy-heavy industries. “Will you remember that Texas? Will you remember that Pennsylvania, Oklahoma?”

No biggie! Forbes quickly found a few swing-seat Dems running from that remark as if they were playing S-P-U-D. The WaPo offered a column wondering just how bad this remark was. I think their gist is it may not hurt Biden with his New York and California donors, but I may need to read it more carefully:

How politically damaging were Biden’s comments about closing down the oil industry?

If you have to ask...

Biden said at the debate he would transition away from oil, then later clarified that he would stop giving federal subsidies to the industry

"Later clarified"? A Golden Rule I learned from careful study of Veep: If they walk it back its a line of attack.

As to the merits, this McKinsey outlook from Jan 2019 projected peak oil production in the early 2030s, or maybe sooner. Usage in power generation and road transport will decline with alternative energy and electric vehicles. However, sea and air transport won't be battery driven anytime soon (but clipper ships!). And a lot of oil is an input to chemical products (one word - plastics!), so there's that.

Well. Sufficient unto 2020 are the many burdens thereof. It seems absurd that Trump needs help in Texas, but he just got some.

Strangely Reassuring

The AstraZeneca vaccine trial in Brazil will continue despite the death of a trial volunteer who apparently got the placebo.

Monday, Monday

My unified telephone/cable/internet service is mostly dead (although party alive.) But I'm sure things are happening!