JustOneMinute

Back In The Ukraine, Offshore Edition

It looks as if the Russian admirals resented the world's attention being focused on the ineptitude of the Russian Army:

Prized Russian Ship Was Hit by Missiles, U.S. Officials Say

WASHINGTON — The Moskva was the pride of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, a symbol of the country’s dominance of the region and a powerful war machine that had been used to launch precision cruise missiles deep inside Ukraine.

Despite claims by Russia that an accidental fire broke out on the ship, U.S. officials confirmed on Friday that two Ukrainian Neptune missiles had struck the vessel, killing an unknown number of sailors and sending it and its arsenal to the bottom of the Black Sea.

The sinking of the Moskva on Thursday was a grave blow to the Russian fleet and a dramatic demonstration of the current era of warfare in which missiles fired from shore can destroy even the biggest, most powerful ships. It was also the most significant combat loss for any navy since 1982, when Argentina’s Air Force sank a British guided missile destroyer and other ships during the Falklands War.

Tough break for Vlad the Derailer.

Meanwhile, Back In Michigan...

An awkward moment for the DoJ:

Jury acquits two in Michigan governor kidnap plot; deadlocks on two others

Partial defeat for the Justice Department’s efforts to combat domestic terrorism; defense lawyers said the men were entrapped by the FBI

A federal jury acquitted two men of conspiring to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and deadlocked on the counts against two others, apparently agreeing to some degree with defense claims that FBI agents entrapped the men in a violent plot shortly before the 2020 election.

The trial in Grand Rapids, Mich., was closely watched as a test of the U.S. government’s ramped-up efforts to combat domestic terrorism, and Friday’s verdict is a partial defeat for the Justice Department. The men’s arrest in October 2020 raised alarms about the possibility of politically motivated violence as the nation was increasingly divided over a bitterly contested presidential race.

It's worth remembering that the DoJ did get guilty pleas from two other alleged conspirators:

The acquittals and hung jury came even though prosecutors called as witnesses two admitted co-conspirators, Ty Garbin and Kaleb Franks. Garbin and Franks pleaded guilty months ago, and told the jury they had agreed to kidnap Whitmer, a Democrat, from her lakeside home.

Bad legal advice, or stronger evidence? IDK.

Durham Chugging Along

A new filing from John Durham revives whatver modest interest remains in his investigation. At this point, its been a long wait for not much.

She's Running!

Back to the future with Sarah Palin.

Say It Ain't So, Joe!

Joe Biden goes global with his gaffe-o-matic act.

How Biden sparked a global uproar with nine ad-libbed words about Putin

By declaring that the Russian leader ‘cannot remain in power,’ the U.S. president seemed to suggest a drastic change in U.S. policy — prompting a scramble by White House officials

With nine ad-libbed words at the end of a 27-minute speech, Biden created an unwanted distraction to his otherwise forceful remarks by calling for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be pushed out of office.

“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” Biden said.

It was a remarkable statement that would reverse stated U.S. policy, directly countering claims from senior administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who have insisted regime change is not on the table. It went further than even U.S. presidents during the Cold War, and immediately reverberated around the world as world leaders, diplomats, and foreign policy experts sought to determine what Biden said, what it meant — and, if he didn’t mean it, why he said it.

Well. Biden said it because he meant it. Also, because he's an old guy who's lost whatever weak filter he once had (his gaffe-o-matic act has played for years.)

So now diplomats get to earn their paychecks explaining that Biden didn't mean what he obviously meant. Awkward! And Russian opponents of Putin's regime get to explain that they are true Russian patriots, not CIA stooges. Also awkward!

Well. The recent declaration that we considered Putin a war criminal created a certain tension - would we negotiate with him, or arrest him? Now that Biden has come out in favor of regime change, a negotiated settlement may be even more difficult.

SPINNERS GOTTA SPIN: The NY Times shows us highly trained clean-up artists at work:

Administration officials have been careful not to hint at Mr. Putin’s removal from office, knowing that it would be taken by the Kremlin as a dangerous escalation. Shortly after Mr. Biden’s speech concluded, the White House insisted that the president was not calling for regime change with his comment about Mr. Putin remaining in power, which appeared to be ad-libbed.

“The president’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region,” a White House official said in a statement to reporters. “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.”

Whatever, dude. Go with that.

But some experts said Mr. Biden may come to regret the comment.

“The White House walk back of @POTUS regime change call is unlikely to wash,” Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a tweet. “Putin will see it as confirmation of what he’s believed all along. Bad lapse in discipline that runs risk of extending the scope and duration of the war.”

On the other hand...

Mr. Biden’s statement that Mr. Putin could not remain in power could be perceived “as a call for regime change,” said Michal Baranowski, a senior fellow and director of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund, a nonpartisan policy organization. But he said the comment was unlikely, in itself, to lead to any escalation.

“Russia is responding to military logic much more than political logic,” Mr. Baranowski said, noting the powerful explosions near Lviv heard minutes before Mr. Biden began speaking.

I hope he's right, but Putin clearly misjudged the military logic of this invasion.

Mother's Day Gifts Arriving Early

At the KBJ hearings folks were saying nice things about the future Supreme Court juistice. The proud, adoring look she got from her daughter is every parent's aspiration.

As to the nominee, I'll side with Andrew McCarthy, and especially his description of Sen. Hawley's attack on KBJ's record in child pornography cases:

Senator Hawley’s Disingenuous Attack against Judge Jackson’s Record on Child Pornography

Ben Sasse provided a pithy summary of the behavior of some (not all!) of his Republican colleagues on the Senate Judiciarly Committee: 'Jackassery".

Back In Ukraine

Foreign Policy on "How Putin Bungled His Invasion of Ukraine". A much shorter article would focus on what Putin did right.

Sunday Afternoon

Spring Forward!

 

Or, Spring Forward?!? Enough already!

Daylight Saving Time: Americans want to stay permanently ‘sprung forward’ and not ‘fall back’

Polled days before the annual ritual of ending Daylight Saving Time by changing their clocks, Americans say they would much rather have one time that lasts all year long, one that doesn’t require changing all clocks twice a year. The latest Economist/YouGov Poll finds that nearly four times as many Americans would end the practice of setting clocks ahead in the spring and back again in the fall.

As the headline say, the preferred one-stop is to spring forward and stay there. Never look back!

While Americans would prefer one time for the whole year and not worry about keeping their clocks in order, if there is going to be only one time for the U.S, which one should it be?

Nearly twice as many Americans who prefer not changing their clocks would prefer that Daylight Saving time – not Standard Time – be the one that is kept.

Again, which time one picks isn’t a matter of politics. Instead, it appears age matters more. Adults under the age of 30 are closely divided on whether they want sunlight later into evening (which happens with Daylight Saving Time) or in the morning. Older adults have a clear preference for Daylight Saving Time. So do people from every region.

 

Naturally this won't happen.

Doomsday Watch Open Thread

This is not your grandfather's Red Army. Back in 1949 NATA was formed to prevent the Red Army from rolling through Berlin to Paris. The US never promised 'no first use' of nuclear weapons because there was serous doubt about the ability of the West to win a conventonal war against the USSR.

But as Ross Douthat notes, this Red Army can't even roll to Kyiv. WIth the possible (probable?) exception of the Baltic states, NATO really can afford to defend itself and US nukes can be strictly a deterrent to Russian escalation rather than something we'd use first.

Why The Russian Army Is Struggling

The Russians are still the likely victors but Mark Antonio Wright, NRO editor and Marine Corps Reserve officer explains some of their apparent problems.

Unhappy Is The Land That Has No Hero

"Unhappy is the land that has no hero" said one of Galileo's students. To which Galileo replied, "No, unhappy is the land that needs a hero".

Galileo was wise. Fortunatley, Ukraine has a hero. Their President Zelensky, an actor and comedian turned politician and warrior has had moments like these:

When the United States offered to evacuate him from Ukraine, he stood his ground, saying, "The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride."

Folks have also dusted off old video of Zelensky shaking it down en route to winning Ukraine's version of Dancing With The Stars in 2006, because why not?

Ukraine needs a miracle. But maybe they'll get one - there be a lot of pressure on the West not to let this guy and his people down.

Life During Wartime

Putin chooses the all-out invasion path. 

The Dash To Dumb

The dash to dumb gets a new land speed record - a CNN contributor explains thats the San Francisco school board recall (backed by the progressive mayor and succeeding with about 75% of the vote) was a nefarious right wing propaganda ploy. Yeah, registered Reps are about 6% of the San Fran electorate but they sure can leverage their clout.

San Francisco school board recall sends a dangerous message

Opinion by Nicole Hemmer

...

This week's recall election in San Francisco is following a similar pattern. Three school board members lost their seats in a recall effort fueled by so many different issues that observers could easily play pick-your-own-narrative.

There were extended pandemic school closures, a ham-handed effort to rename schools commemorating Abraham Lincoln and George Washington, among other figures, in the name of social justice, an attempt to move away from testing and GPA requirements for admission into high-ranking public schools, a growing achievement gap, an enormous budget deficit and, in the case of one school board member, the use of a racial slur in an anti-Asian rant. All that makes trying to sum up the lessons of the recall a tall order.

Well, those were the issues all right. So what lesson does she take away?

But while the results in San Francisco may resist simple analysis, the politics swirling around the recall tell us something important about a process underway across the country. In San Francisco, deep-pocketed, right-leaning donors shoveled money into the recall, while activists and media outlets began using language that lashed together the disparate dissatisfactions into a coherent message.

And that coherent message swayed the mayor and roughly 75% of San Fran voters. Those tricky righties!

She closes with an exhortation to the media to Do Better:

Democratic politicians often lack courage when backlash politics are in motion, as likely to jump on the outrage bandwagon as shrink into the shadows, waiting for it to blow over. But they and progressive activists have a responsibility to counter moral panics with narratives more rooted in reality and more concerned with those whose needs are being overlooked.

Journalists and commentators also play a critical role in how backlash politics form: whose stories get told and emphasized, what frames are applied to the story of what schools need and where they fail, what policy issues and political concerns are treated as legitimate and which get hand-waved away. Getting those issues right is not just critical for how elections unfold, but how schools are ultimately valued and reformed.

That's the spirit! If libs are re-naming schools while refusing to open them, its up to the press to explain why!

Peggy Noonan (no doubt a part of the right-wing conspiracy here) provides a different take on San Francisco.

Super Sunday!

Are you ready for some football?

Open Everything!

Jim Geraghty on the resurgent, insurgent 'Open Everything!' movement.

Pence 2028! Would You Believe, 2032?

Mike Pence's decision to call out Trump may be Bold and Principled but if he runs in 2024 he won't be competitive. Someone like Youngkin, who more or less dodged Trump, has more of a chance than someone who takes him head-on.

Pence, OTOH, had no real play anyway - the currently numerous Stop The Steal crowd will never embrace him.

Tough Times At The Back Of The Alphabet

A bit of a skid for Zucker and Zuckerberg.

Ready For Some Football

Shovel some snow, pop some Aleve, watch the Rams and Chiefs advance to the Super Bowl - Big Day planned.

Ready For The Weekend

Here we go again! Snow Time!

Let Sleeping Dogs Lie

Will there be a brawl to replace Breyer? IMHO, Democrats would welcome one. A chance to thrill their base AND deliver a win? Easy call.

On the Republican side obviously they can't pass on a fundraising opportunity. But they already have plenty of topics to excite their side and the Supreme Court will be delivering more (eg, on abortion and gun control) this year. No need to escalate a fight they will probably lose.

UPDATE: Great minds run in the same channel. Or at least, I hopeso, since Jim Geraghty is a great mind.

Let's Go TB12

OK, here in the 3rd quarter the LA Rams have just kicked an extra point to go up 27-3 over the Tampa Bay Bradys.

If the Rams had any respect for the game they have gone for the 2 point conversion. Then Brady could deliver 28-3 II and the Hollywood ending fans (like me!) would be thrilled.

I Believe It Is Chaos For Our Time

Joe Biden, self-styling as a seasoned foreign policy hand, steps in it and then wallows in it with comments and 'clarifications' on Putin and the Ukraine. The Times is clearly making a heroic effort to avoid panic:

Biden Predicts Putin Will Order Ukraine Invasion, but ‘Will Regret Having Done It’

President Biden’s comments went well beyond the formal intelligence assessments described by White House officials, which conclude that Russia’s president has not yet decided whether to invade.

Biden is so off-script its ludicrous.

WASHINGTON — President Biden said on Wednesday that he now expected President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would order an invasion of Ukraine, delivering a grim assessment that the diplomacy and threat of sanctions issued by the United States and its European allies were unlikely to stop the Russian leader from sending troops across the border.

“Do I think he’ll test the West, test the United States and NATO, as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will,” Mr. Biden told reporters during a nearly two-hour news conference in the East Room of the White House. He added, almost with an air of fatalism: “But I think he will pay a serious and dear price for it that he doesn’t think now will cost him what it’s going to cost him. And I think he will regret having done it.”

Asked to clarify whether he was accepting that an invasion was coming, Mr. Biden said: “My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.”

The president later acknowledged that Mr. Putin’s move might not amount to a full-scale invasion of the country.

Yeah, that clarification went well. So well the Times chose to bury the specific quote, although they present criticisms of it. This is CNN:

"It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do..."

AHHH! State Dept. and White House telephone lines have been burning up since then:

Biden Strengthens His Words on Ukraine After Flustering European Partners

After the president laid bare divisions over Russian meddling in Ukraine, his administration scrambled to get on the same page with European allies.

Clown show. 

Say It Ain't So, Joe

This is the week the wheels fell off for Joe Biden. Peggy Noonan's recap of his disastrous Atlanta speech marks just one of Biden's bellyflops.

Democrats are hoping for a reset but its hard to see White House roster moves or policy pivots that will help until Team Biden grasps the fact that pandering to Left Twitter isn't the same as trying to unite the country.

Peggy Noonan reprises many McConnell quotes. For a few more zingers, here is Ben Sasse from the Senate floor.

This passage follows his introduction, in which Sasse notes he defended the filibuster when Trump wanted it further modified (my emphasis):

Today, I rise to defend the filibuster again when it's the president of the other party who's decided to go full demagogue. For his entire career in the Senate, basically, Joe Biden served in this body as long as I've been alive, plus or minus a few years. Joe Biden was a stalwart defender of the filibuster. He said that weakening the filibuster would, "eviscerate the Senate." But earlier this week, the President was pushed around by a bunch of rage-addicted 20-somethings on his staff and agreed to go down to Georgia and just read whatever nonsense they loaded into his teleprompter. It was shameful. It was sad. The President of the United States called half of the country a bunch of racist bigots. Think about that. Half the country, a bunch of racist bigots. He doesn't believe that. This was a senile comment of a man who read whatever was loaded into his teleprompter. His speechwriters puppet-mastered him into saying that anyone who disagrees with him is George Wallace. Bull Connor. Jefferson Davis. You disagree with Joe Biden and you're Jefferson Davis. Pretty breathtaking. 

Harsh yet fair.

Trump v. DeSantis

Who is this guy and what have they done with Trump?

Trump Rips ‘Gutless’ Politicians Who Won’t Say If They’ve Had Vaccine Booster: ‘Say It’

OK, his eye is on likely 2024 Presidential candidate DeSantis. But courage, Ron - that O'Reilly crowd wasn't booing Trump; they were yelling "Boooost!".

A Lot Happening

Joe Biden wants to modify the filibuster so Dems can pass democracy-saving legislation without Republican support. Joe Manchin may not be on board, so we wait.

Donald Trump and his "Stop The Steal" enablers have not been worthy stewards of the voting process, so I can see why Dems might not trust the Reps on this one. And it doesn't seem like The Donald will be moving on from his 2020 delusions, although there are hopeful signs that other Republicans have.

A Great Story

What will be the top "feel-good" stories of 2022? Nadia Popovic broke strong from the gate with this one:

Kraken fan Nadia Popovici lauded for pointing out Canucks equipment manager Brian Hamilton’s cancerous mole during game

Nadia Popovici hadn’t woken up yet when what she had done to save a life was going viral on hockey Twitter.

A 2019 University of Washington graduate about to go to medical school, she worked at a crisis hotline overnight on New Year’s Eve. It was a shock to find out upon waking she had become a story.

“I woke up with my mom’s phone call and she was like, ‘Nadia, you have no idea what’s going on,'” she said. “She sent me the statement the (Canucks) put out, and it said they were looking for me. There was a lot of screaming. I couldn’t believe it.”

Popovici, who goes to Kraken games with her stepfather’s season tickets, was the subject of a search from Canucks assistant equipment manager Brian “Red” Hamilton, who said Saturday morning via a Twitter statement from the team Popovici had saved his life.

When the Canucks were at Climate Pledge Arena on Oct. 23, the Kraken’s home opener, Popovici — sitting behind the Canucks bench — typed a message out on her phone, knocked on the plexiglass and got Hamilton’s attention. “The mole on the back of your neck is cancer,” the message read.

Hamilton got medical treatment and eventually went on Twitter to find and thank her (so much for searching by way of glass slippers...).

Wild.

 

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year! Will 2022 be the disappointing finish to a grim trilogy, or do we get a redemptive Big Finish?

I read somewhere the CDC has recommended we throw the Ring into Mt. Doom. Might help! But the day may come when the CDC recommends we all just pipe down and take the blue pill. Tempting!

Shorter Quarantines

The CDC had modified their COVID quarantine recommendations:

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. health officials on Monday cut isolation restrictions for asymptomatic Americans who catch the coronavirus from 10 to five days, and similarly shortened the time that close contacts need to quarantine.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said the guidance is in keeping with growing evidence that people with the coronavirus are most infectious in the two days before and three days after symptoms develop.

The decision also was driven by a recent surge in COVID-19 cases, propelled by the omicron variant.

Some of this reflects staffuing issues - can't keep essetial workers at home for too long.

 

 

Happy Holidays!

Merry Christmas all! I just want to share my Christmas Earworm: the late, great Jim Croce's "I Got A Name", specifically

"Like the pine trees linin' the windin' road
I've got a name, I've got a name..."

Pine tress typically have names? Who names their pine trees? And what is the name of the one in my living room - Jeweled? What is Croce's real name - homo sapiens?

So many questions. Whatev.

And please remember the Holiday message during this OMGicron season - think positive and test negative! 

Omicron Studies Arrive

Good-ish news from South Africa, Scotland and the Imperial College all suggest that Omicron cases will be more widespread but milder than Delta.

This means Omicron may still swamp our hospitals. If, for example, we have three times as many cases but only half as many end up in the hospital, well, that is still more people filling hospitals.

The studies attempt to adjust for vaccination status and protection induced by prior infection. The 'prior infection' estimate in South Africa is so uncertain (and the country so different from the US) that their conclusion may not mean much here.

The omicron Covid variant is less likely to result in hospitalization than earlier strains and appears to be milder in comparison, according to early data released this week.

Data from South Africa, England and Scotland indicate that people infected with omicron are significantly less likely to be admitted to hospital than if they contract other strains, and the latter study further emphasized the importance of getting a booster shot .

The Imperial College study is their Report 50. It moves past their recent Report 49, which found no evidence that Omicron was milder than Delta.

OMGicron!

OK, we knew it was spreading but c'mon, man:

Omicron now the dominant U.S. Covid strain at 73% of cases, CDC data shows

Omicron is so Twenty Twenty-New; Delta is so Twenty Twenty-Done.

The rapidly spreading omicron variant is now the dominant Covid strain in the U.S., representing 73% of sequenced cases, according to data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Omicron has displaced the previously dominant delta variant, which the CDC says is now an estimated 26.6% of sequenced cases for the week ending December 18. Just one week earlier, delta made up 87% of cases to omicron’s 12.6%, the data shows.

The CDC also has cool graphics showing Omicron's emergence over time and current geographic spread.

 

I want to dig up their depiction of The Ascent of Delta last summer.

Here is the current Omicron spread:

 

And let's close with some thoughts from Clint Eastwood, Frontier Doctor, when asked about how transmissible Omicron is.

I CAN QUIT ANYTIME: The vaccine-hesitant Gene Hackman bemoans his choices.

Pre-Christmas Cheer

Omicron is here. NO, its not the Evil Organization in the latest Bond film. Its the COVID variant setting case records in several coutries, with others soon to follow. (New York City records are subject to the caveat that testing was spotty during their crushing wave in spring 2020.) Clint Eastwood, Frontier Doctor assessed the outlook.

Fortunately, 'cases' is not a great metric here - Omicron has a flair for infecting those even with some COVID immunity due to vaccines or past infection. That generally results in less severe cases. That also means that in order to assess whether omicron is less dangerous than delta researchers need to track vaccine and past infection status. Since Omicron is giving mild cases to vaccinated/formerly infected people who might have fought off a Delta exposure, mild cases may be over-represented in the Omicron mix.

Well. Hospitals in the Midwest and Northeast were already straining. Want some sound medical advice? Don't be in a car accident in January. Or have a heart attack.

More sound advice? DO get vaccinated or boosted. It might help lighten the burden on our health system. And for we old-timers, Dr. Eastood had other timeless advice - dying is no way to make a living. Nor is it a way to Own The Libs. Getting vaccinated is good advice even if it comes from Biden. Or Trump.

Real Men of Genius

Per the NY Times, Biden's advisers want him to continue talking up our robust economy, even though polls show lots of people aren't feeling it.

Out-of-touch and confused - yeah, that's the ticket!

How’s the Economy? Biden Sees a Boom. Many Americans Don’t.

The president has struggled to sell strong growth and job gains to a public that appears more concerned about rising prices — and remains anxious about Covid.

By Jim Tankersly

WASHINGTON — President Biden and his top aides are struggling to bridge the gap between the economy they want to celebrate and the one that has left many Americans anxious and frustrated, as a record-setting recovery collides with prolonged inflation and an ongoing pandemic that has left consumers deeply pessimistic.

The challenge begins with a disbelief of sorts among Mr. Biden’s economic advisers. They insist the job market, with a 4.2 percent unemployment rate, has never been better, delivering wage gains for lower-paid workers that Mr. Biden believes will help lift more people into the middle class. They say those benefits will endure for years, even once inflation, which last -month accelerated at its fastest pace in 40 years, cools down.

The struggle is also entwined with Mr. Biden’s fight against Covid. Administration officials say that the anxiety voters are expressing to pollsters is less about the economy and the president’s handling of it and more an expression of pent-up frustration with a pandemic that has persisted for nearly two years.

White House officials say they have no plans to shift Mr. Biden’s messaging on economic issues, even as poll after poll shows his approval ratings in decline and voter worry over inflation swamping all other views of the economy. Their strategy remains focused on stressing the administration’s work to spread vaccinations and end the pandemic without further lockdowns, cheering the nation’s progress in economic growth and promising that Mr. Biden’s policies will bring down prices for oil, food and consumer goods.

Eventually reality will catch up to one side or the other.

Championship Saturday!

I'm rooting for Alabama Out and Michigan In. Seeing Cincy in the playoffs would be fine, too.

Hails And Fails

All Hail: The blazing-like-a-Tesla Biden jobs recovery! 

Total Fail: Effin' Chris Cuomo.

All Hail: Omicron optimism backed by data so sketchy a stripper would blush.

Ongoing Fail: Effin' Clinton Shakedown Foundation.

Omicron What?

Omicron, schmomicron! The WaPo presents the obvious - the public has no more appetite for lockdowns. Fortunately, after a one-day Black Friday wobble, Wall Street has no further appetite for bad news:

Stock futures climbed in overnight trading on Monday following a rebound on Wall Street as investors reassessed risks associated with the new omicron Covid variant.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 75 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both ticked up 0.2%.

The overnight action came after a broad-based comeback that saw the S&P 500 jump 1.3% with all 11 sectors registering gains. Major averages rose to session highs on Monday after President Joe Biden said economic lockdowns are currently off the table and there will be no new travel restrictions. The blue-chip Dow ended the day up more than 200 points.

Then again, tomorrow is another day...

Safe Travels, Happy Holidays

Spring into action!

Sunday Morning!

Away we go!

More "Surprising No One Who Was Paying Attention"

OK, Kyle Rittenhouse was found Not Guilty on all the major charges as well as all the minor ones. One more Team Blue show trial ends up in rubble and Robby Soave of Reason pokes at the wreckage (Yes, I am having a George Zimmerman flashback.) Do these people think self-defense should be illegal if the attacker fails to bring a gun to what turns into a gunfight? Not how it works.

PILING ON: I am having a hard time picking my favorite quote from the Times wishcasting. I love this from the DA:

“Certainly, issues regarding the privilege of self-defense remain highly contentious in our current times,” said Mr. Graveley..."

"Privilege" of self-defense?!? Well, maybe-ish, in the sense that there are restrictions on self-defense rights. But most rights have some limits. Eg, we don't talk about the 'privilege' of a free press even though we have laws against libel.

Well. I thought that comment would take the prize but this was strong competition:

But some prosecution witnesses gave complex accounts that were not wholly favorable to the prosecution’s case.

Do tell. C'mon, Times readers have seen the verdict - now the reporter is easing them out of the cocoon!

Richie McGinniss, a videographer for a conservative news and opinion site, witnessed the first shooting, when Mr. Rittenhouse shot and killed Joseph Rosenbaum, who had chased him into a parking lot and was rushing at him.

Mr. McGinniss gave the defense a crucial piece of testimony: He said he saw Mr. Rosenbaum lunge at Mr. Rittenhouse and reach for the barrel of Mr. Rittenhouse’s rifle.

“He threw his momentum toward the weapon,” Mr. McGinnis said of Mr. Rosenbaum.

That appeared to support Mr. Rittenhouse’s emotional testimony about his state of mind on Aug. 25, 2020, the night of the shooting. “If I would have let Mr. Rosenbaum take my firearm from me, he would have used it and killed me with it, and probably killed more people,” Mr. Rittenhouse said on the stand.

Other prosecution witnesses also gave testimony that helped the defense.

Gaige Grosskreutz, the only one of the three men Mr. Rittenhouse shot who survived, testified that he chased Mr. Rittenhouse after Mr. Rosenbaum was shot because he “thought that the defendant was an active shooter.” Mr. Grosskreutz, an emergency medical technician, was armed with a handgun, which he took out.

Mr. Grosskreutz described the encounter as he was shown photos that captured him pointing his gun at Mr. Rittenhouse, who shot him in the arm.

“It wasn’t until you pointed your gun at him, advanced on him with your gun — now your hands down, pointed at him — that he fired, right?” Corey Chirafisi, a defense lawyer, asked.

“Correct,” Mr. Grosskreutz replied.

The jurors saw video showing the third victim, Anthony Huber, hitting Mr. Rittenhouse with a skateboard before Mr. Rittenhouse shot and killed him. The video gave the defense added fodder for the self-defense argument.

 

File Under "Surprising No One"

The CBO estimates that the Biden Build Back Better bill is not fully paid for. On the other hand, the key dispute is the likely revenue from enhanced IRS enforcement, and per the (totally non-partisan!) Treasury estimates used by the White House, the CBO estimate is too low. Time may tell, if this bill doesn't perish in the Senate.

Meanwhile, in what seems to have been a surprise to some, House Minority Leader McCarthy staged a one-man filibuster, speaking on the House floor for over eight hours and pushing the BBB vote to Friday.

This could have been predicted since we've seen it before, and recently. Its a quirk of House rules:

McCarthy was able to hold the floor indefinitely under the procedures of the House, which say the majority leader and the minority leader get what's called a "Magic Minute" at the end of floor debate, meaning they can speak for as long as they want. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi used a similar tactic as minority leader in 2018, speaking for more than eight hours on the House floor in a speech about young undocumented immigrants, the previous record for a floor speech.

Who knew?

 

If You Can Keep Your Head...

Thomas Edsall does NOT title his latest essay "What's The Matter With The Democrats?". He prefers an air horn:

Democrats Shouldn’t Panic. They Should Go Into Shock.

No surprises here - 2022 looks like a Red Storm Rising / Blue Wave Goodbye election. Both history and current events are against the Dems:

The rise of inflation, supply chain shortages, a surge in illegal border crossings, the persistence of Covid, mayhem in Afghanistan and the uproar over “critical race theory” — all of these developments, individually and collectively, have taken their toll on President Biden and Democratic candidates, so much so that Democrats are now the underdogs going into 2022 and possibly 2024.

But a year is a long time and there is still a lot of football to be played. And then basketball, and then a World Series.

Saturday Morning

Jonah Goldberg is irritated and alienated. Since you ask, yes, I can relate...

Away We Go

Grr: 'Effing Aaron Rodgers cost his team a game and may be costing people their lives.

NFL COVID protocols strongly push towards vaccination, not whatever Rodgers homeopathic whirligig did to obtain "immunization":

"Unvaccinated players who test positive must isolate at least 10 days, even if they are asymptomatic. Vaccinated players, however, can return following a positive test as soon as they produce two negative tests with 24 hours in between, as long as they are asymptomatic. In other words, Rodgers would at least have a chance to play Sunday if he were vaccinated."

THROWING IT DOWN: Kareem dunks on Rodgers. More in the Times.

Grr II: Rule of law, anyone?!? A Federal court has stayed the dubious Biden-OSHA vaccine mandate pending review but Team Biden exhorts companies to ignore the court and soldier on. The distinction between "good idea" and "within the scope of Executive Branch authority" seems to baffle the Bidenauts. OK, Bidenuts.

Grr III: Erik Wemple of the WaPo once again bashes credulous lefties for their unwavering faith in the Steele dossier. As a bonus, Matt Taibbi piles on Rachel Maddow.

Despite their efforts I doubt this will redeem the left-wing media in many eyes on the right.

Big Night In Virginia. And Houston.

We're rooting for the Republican upset and the Braves upset.

Go, Go, Sleepy Joe!

Let's give Joe Biden credit - he's got the trains running on time. They keep crashing into each other, but at least the train wrecks have a now-familiar script.

Dems limp out of another stumble-ending month

It's a nightmare on Capitol Hill for the president's party, as October passes by without a deal.

House liberals left the Capitol triumphant on Thursday night after once again scuttling a major vote. Every other Democrat was fuming.

For the second time in less than a month, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team had to delay a vote on Senate-passed infrastructure bill amid progressive opposition, denying President Joe Biden a much-need win as Democrats’ bigger, $1.75 trillion social spending plan also remains in limbo.

“I think it’s wholly apparent that today was not a success,” said Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger, whose state has a high-stakes gubernatorial showdown Tuesday that Democrats were hoping to boost with the infrastructure vote.

Ms. Spanberger came to national attention in the aftermath of the 2020 election, when she promised to draw on her CIA background to hunt down and choke out the next Dem to say "Defund the police".

Hmm. My memory may be engaging in hyperbole. But not by much!

BREAKING BAD: This "Let's Go Brandon" story gives me hope for the future of American politics.

Nothing As Powerful As An Idea Whose Time Has Come

There's nothing as powerful as an idea whose tie has come, and that idea may be Sen. Wyden's plan to end the deferral of taxes on capital gains. And this tax is targeted like a laser-guided missile to hit the uber-rich:

Democrats move to finalize new ‘billionaire’ tax proposal, targeting 700 wealthiest Americans as key source of revenue for spending plan

Senior Democrats are preparing a sweeping new tax plan that would aim to raise hundreds of billions of dollars from the fortunes of America’s roughly 700 billionaires, an abrupt shift in the party’s approach to funding a large expansion of the safety net.

...

Democrats had largely united behind increasing taxes on those earning more than roughly $500,000 per year, while also raising the corporate tax rate paid by large firms. That approach was consistent with President Biden’s insistence that Americans earning less than $400,000 per year be spared any tax hikes, a pledge the administration considers necessary to protect the political popularity of any new taxes.

The new path under consideration represents an even starker attempt to narrowly tailor tax increases to avoid political blowback. It would shield not only the lower and middle classes but also exempt the bulk of the top 1 percent — concentrating the higher rates instead on the wealthiest 0.0002 percent.

Let be pause here to nit-pick: the plan may not involve higher tax rates. It may be as 'simple' as expanding the definition of income to include unrealized capital gains. (Raising the cap gains rate may also be part of the plan, of course.) Pressing on:

Currently, wealthy Americans do not have to pay taxes on vast accumulations of wealth because they are taxed only once an asset is sold. Billionaires often borrow against their non-taxed assets, allowing them to spend enormous sums of money while effectively paying very low taxes relative to their income and worth.

Under the “Billionaire Income Tax” proposal, a summary of which was obtained by The Washington Post, the federal government would require billionaires to pay taxes on the increased value of assets such as stocks on an annual basis, regardless of whether they sell those assets. Billionaires would also be able to take deductions for any annual loss invalue of those assets.

The plan would also set up a system for taxing assets that are not easily tradable, such as real estate. The tax would apply to billionaires and people earning more than $100 million in income three years in a row.

Hmm. This actually seems like a huge flock of sheep and a couple of wolves voting on what's for dinner.

Well. Time for a bit of gloating since I was calling for a tax on unrealized capital gains quite a while ago. So was Sen. Wyden, and between the two of us we're making progress.

 

Sen. Manchin With One Foot Out The Door

It's now or later - the always interesting and sometimes reliable David Corn reports that Sen. Manchin aired a plan to ease on out of the Democratic Party. The current point is to pressure Biden, Pelosi and Schumer on the package formerly known as the $6 trillion social infrastructure bill. Manchin wants to to cap it at $1.75 trillion and apparently expressed major philosophical differences with his party:

Manchin has repeatedly said he has a significant philosophical difference with most of his fellow Democrats. He has told reporters that he believes major programs in the Build Back Better bill would move the United States toward an “entitlement mentality” and that he cannot accept that. In a recent meeting with Biden, Manchin told the president that he sees government as a partner with the public not the ultimate provider, according to people who heard the senator’s account of the conversation. He explained to the president that in his view Biden didn’t win the presidency last year by championing progressive proposals, and he pressed the president to recall his campaign promise to bring people together. He also reminded Biden that he has vowed not to support any package unless it contains the Hyde Amendment, which bans the use of federal funds to pay for abortions, except in cases of incest or when the life of the mother is at risk.

Left up in the air is whether Independent Joe would caucus with the Dems and leave Sen. Schumer as Majority Leader (for now) or swing a deal with Cocaine Mitch and join the Republicans. Time will tell but let me note this - Manchin will get a better deal with Mitch now then he will after Nov 2022 if the Republicans win back the Senate without him.

As to what will be won by whom come Nov 2022, we are in or around coin-toss territory. But there is a lot of time left, obviously.

Old King Coal

Sen. Joe Manchin puts the kibosh on Biden's clean energy plan:

Key to Biden’s Climate Agenda Likely to Be Cut Because of Manchin Opposition

The West Virginia Democrat told the White House he is firmly against a clean electricity program that is the muscle behind the president’s plan to battle climate change.

The WaPo flagged this a few days back. Manchin's objection seems a bit vague:

Manchin had a frank conversation with White House aides late last week where he said he couldn't support the CEPP in its current form, according to two of the people close to the negotiations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private discussions.

The centrist coal-state senator "doesn't see a formulation that could get past his concerns with regard to rewarding utilities for behavior they're already taking," one person said, "and he pretty much conveyed that."

Its not clear where Biden and his crack leadership team are headed with this. But the Times piece concludes with some LOL wish-casting:

It is also possible that Democrats may try to push through the clean electricity program as a stand-alone bill — but the timeline for doing so is narrowing, with the 2022 midterm elections approaching.

Sure. There ought to be plenty of eager Republican votes for this in the Senate.

The Emerging Democrat Debacle

Ezra Klein on David Shor and why the Dems face a looming disaster in the House and Senate. Writing in Politico, Ian Ward also covers the David Shor phenomenon. After describing the eternal Dem enthusiasm for youthful idealists, he notes this:

At its most basic, Shor’s theory goes something like this: Although young people as a whole turn out to vote at a lower rate than the general population, the aforementioned type of young person is actually overrepresented within the core of the Democratic Party’s infrastructure. According to Shor, the problem with this permanent class of young staffers is that they tend to hold views that are both more liberal and more ideologically motivated than the views of the coveted median voter, and yet they yield a significant amount of influence over the party’s messaging and policy decisions. As a result, Democrats end up spending a lot of time talking about issues that matter to college-educated liberals but not to the multiracial bloc of moderate voters that the party needs to win over to secure governing majorities in Washington. 

I'd guess this 'college kids versus the rest of us' dynamic began to divide the Democratic Party in the 'hippies versus hard hats' clashes of the Vietnam War era. The decline of private sector unions and the drift of the working class to Republicans (made famous by the Reagan Republicans) has tilted the balance towards the College kids. Emmet Rensin described the Democrats as the Party of Smug back in 2016, although Conor Friedersdorf observed that Republicans could contest the mantle. (Stewart and Colbert vs. Limbaugh and O'Reilly?).

In a similar vein Matt Yglesias recently exhorted his fellow Dems to give an occasional nod to reality:

The median voter is a 50-something white person who didn't go to college

Cognitive behavioral therapy for Democrats

Its a bitter pill.

Nuke The Debt Ceiling!

Joe Biden gets on board with an idea whose time is coming - use the Senate 'nuclear option' to put debt ceiling legislation beyond the filibuster. Both parties have done this with judges and Cocaine Mitch says he is fine with raising the debt ceiling as long as there are no Republican votes backing it.

Prior to the crushing defeats in the Georgia Senate run-offs that gave Sen. Schumer 50 votes in the Senate, Republicans warned that in such a scenario Democrats would end the filibuster entirely and squeeze through bills on DC statehood and an expanded Supreme Court with 50 votes plus VP Harris. Sen. Manchin has rejected that concept but he was apparently silent on nuking the filibuster:

Senate Democrats discussed carving out the exception at their weekly lunch on Tuesday. No conclusions were reached, but notably, according to participants, the two strongest opponents of filibuster changes, Senators Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, did not speak up in protest. They also did not speak up in support.

This debt ceiling stand-off will be resolved with a gimmicky trick play. My current guess ranks the nuclear option at Number One because it is quick and no more politically painful than reconciliation. Reconciliation is my second guess - its cumbersome and uses a scarce resource since per the current Senate "rules" (LOL) the Dems can only use it twice per session. (Their current plan is to use their second Reconciliation Card on the shrinking $3.5 trillion Social Justice and More bill, but they may do that next January in a new session.)

My third choice is a gadget play to be named later. The fourth choice last gasp is the Trillion Dollar Platinum coin. I don't think the coin is "legal" within the spirit of the law but in the current environment the real question is, can Treasury and Fed lawyers agree its 'legal enough', given the dire alternatives? As a recent example of this mentality, Biden extended the CDC eviction moratorium knowing the courts would eventually shoot it down (The Supreme Court did so, three weeks later.)

As to the platinum coin, I agree with this from Krugman:

Would any of these approaches basically mean using silly gimmicks to avoid catastrophe? Possibly yes. But given the stakes, who cares if the approach sounds silly?

Would using any of these gimmicks involve violating the spirit of the law even if they technically obey the letter? Of course — but Republicans are already doing that through their abuse of the debt ceiling.

Would any attempt to do an end run around the debt ceiling face court challenges? Yes. But the legal process would at the very least buy time to devise a better solution.

Well, yes - the trillion dollar coin is a terrible idea (per SecTreas Yellen!) but maybe not compared to the other terrible ideas on the menu. As to legal challenges, there is a real question about just who might have standing to sue if a coin were issued.

We should find out soon enough. My money is on nukes.

ERRATA: Rohan Grey, a young progressive professor, has a solid piece on the legal background to a platinum coin. We chatted on Twitter and I came away agreeing that the coin is legal enough that Federal Reserve lawyers could make a political decision to go either way. On the one had, I'd say that accepting the coin calls into question their independence. OTOH, rejecting it puts them in the role of refereeing a partisan Executive-Legislative showdown during a bond market meltdown. Both paths are perilous.